Freight Demand Modeling: Tools for Public-Sector
Decision Making
First National Conference
September 25-27, 2006Washington D.C.
Sponsored byTRB
FHWAU.S. ACE
RITAFRA
Kathleen Hancock PE, PhDAssociate Director CGITVirginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
• to provide participants with an appreciation of– the importance of freight transportation – the role of analytical tools to describe and predict the
impacts of modal trade patterns on the public and private transportation systems
• to engage members of the freight transportation community in
– examining current modeling practice– identifying areas where improvement is needed
GOALSGOALS
Key ObservationsKey Observations
• Freight and logistic sectors critically important
• Political and jurisdictional boundaries do not define market interrelationships
Megapolitan vs Political Boundaries
Source: R E Lang and D Dhavale, “Beyond Megalopolis: Exploring America’s New “Megapolitan” Geography”, METROPOLITAN INSTITUTE CENSUS REPORT SERIES, Census Report 05:01 (July 2005).
Decision Making Context
Multi-National (e.g., NAFTA)
Global
National / Federal
MegaRegions, Multi-state, Market-oriented, Trade corridors
State
Metropolitan
Local/Site
Strategic Investment Decisions
System (Real Time) Operations
System Management
System Planning
Econometric models
Input-output
Network flow/land use/impact models
Trend analysis
Logistics modeling
Micro simulation
Data analysis
Heuristics
Modeling Context• Four-step model paradigm an artifact of
passenger demand modeling
• Not just one type of model– logistics models
– flow models
– micro-simulations
– Econometric models
– hybrids, etc
Maybe one does not need a model
Domain Context• Marriage of different disciplines
– regional economics
– industrial engineering
– civil engineering
– urban geography
– logistics
– management/business, etc.
• Multidisciplinary approach to research
Data Context• Data collection paradigm of periodic
data updates outdated….need examination of continuous data input
• Data partnerships - “harsh dose of reality”
Key ObservationsKey Observations• Freight and logistic sectors critically important
• Political and jurisdictional boundaries do not define market interrelationships
• Different decision tools for different contexts
• Decisions very broad / multidisciplinary
• Data mandatory
• Education of decision makers, users, providers important
General Research Needs
• Best practices in modeling and other techniques and data for different decision making contexts
• Guidance on “how to get there”
• Syntheses of the current state of the knowledge
Research Needs—Geography
• Data and decision tools depend on the level of geography being considered
• Robust national freight flow model
Research Needs—Data1
• National data on through-metropolitan area movements
• Development of a “freight data architecture” and application scenarios
• Systematic and linked approach toward data collection and use
• Leadership in using available public and private databases
Research Needs—Data2
• Assessment of ITS technologies • PUMS equivalent for freight geographic
information• Approach to capture raw trend data on a
routine basis and industry wide• Move from traditional paradigm of periodic,
five-year data collection to continuous flow of data
• Sub-sample updating and sample size increase of CFS
• Bayesian decision networks
Research Needs—Data3
• More surveys when conducting decennial census
• Case studies of where collaborative data efforts have occurred
• Transfer of data conclusions and underlying relationships
• Better understanding of the transfer of methodologies and data use
Research Needs—Data4e
• Best practices of truck origin-destination collection methodologies and classification count matrices
• Additional guidance like Quick Response Freight Manual
• Information about “logistics for public receivers”, ie government buildings, schools
• Relationship between land use and freight data• Improvements and survivability of CFS and
VIUS
Research Needs—Decision Support Tools1
• Freight Model Improvement Program (FMIP)
• Key variables and relationships among variables for shipping decisions
• Guidance like Quick Response Freight Manual
• Strategies to communicate applicability and value of different decision tools
• Decision support tools that incorporate uncertainty and risk
Research Needs—Decision Support Tools2
• Link to modeling at more disaggregate geographic levels from national models
• Proof of model’s value and viability be disseminated…feedback loop
• Comparison of state-of-the-art models
• Freight operational models within decision analysis framework
Research Needs—Decision Support Tools3e
• Safety module as post processor of freight modeling• Decision tools that link econometric and
transportation models• Decision tools that incorporate logistics• Multimodal and intermodal understanding; including
short sea shipping, inland water, air cargo, etc.• Analysis tools that show environmental and land use
effects of different investment and operational strategies at metropolitan area and local levels
Challenge“The four CCs”
How to develop a constituency for the results of freight planning
How to develop a constituency for the results of freight planning that is led by champions
How to develop a constituency for the results of freight planning that is led by champions based on collaborative undertakings
How to develop a constituencyconstituency for the results of freight planning that is led by championschampions based on collaborativecollaborative undertakings that responds to customercustomer (of the information) needs?
Top Related