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THESIS DEFENSE
Aninda Mustafa
Department of Economics
Independent University, Bangladesh
PRO-POOR GROWTH AND REGIONALPOVERTY DYNAMICS IN BANGLADESH: A
PANEL DATA ANALYSIS
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Structure of the Presentation
•
Importance and Significance• Background
• Research Questions
•
Results and Policy Implications
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Why is this study important?
• Investigates poverty dynamics in Bangladesh
• Regional analysis with the latest data
• Vision 2021
1.Increase economic growth to 10%
2.Reduce poverty to 14%
3.Become a middle-income nation
4.Developing human capital and improving gender
equality
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Background: Pro-poor Growth
‘Growth that benefits the poor’ (UN 2000, OECD2001)
‘What enables the poor to actively and directlyparticipate in and significantly benefit fromeconomic activity’ (Kakwani and Pernia 2000).
1.The general definition
2.The strict definition• Relative pro-poor growth• Absolute pro-poor growth
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The Poverty, Growth, and ne!ua"ity
Triang"e
POVERTY
GROWTHINEQUALITY
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Bang"adesh: Growth Trend
T#B$% #&&'#$ G()WT*
(#T%S
ndia Sri $anka &epa" Pakistan
+
.
/
01
2
3
FIGURE 1: ANNUAL GDP GROWTH OF OTHER COUNTRIES
#nnua" rate of G4P growth
% values
Source: BBS 5various years6
Source: World Bank
1980-89 1990-99 2000-10 2010-14
GDP growth 3.72 4.80 5.82 6.20
Population growth 2.01 1.70 1.32 1.20Per Capita GDP growth 1.68 3.05 4.44 5.03
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Bang"adesh: Growth Trend
Source: BBS (various ears).
Sectoral Share
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Bang"adesh: Poverty Trend
7708+ +++8+ ++08+ ++8++
+
+
.+
/+
0+
1+
2+
Barisa" 9hittagong 4haka
hu"na (a;shahi
*%#49)'&T (#T% B< #4=&ST(#T>%4>S)&S
Source: BBS (variousyears)
a!shahi " 1#8 $ercentae$oints&year
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Poverty =ap 4istance from 4haka
Source: World Bank
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Bang"adesh ne!ua"ity Trend
72.8+ 738+ 73.8+ 7308+ 7338+ 778+ 7708+ +++8+ ++08+ ++8+
+8.
+8.0
+8/
+8/0
+80
+800
Income Gini Trend
&#T)&#$ ('(#$ '(B#&
Source: BBS (variousyears)
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(esearch @uestions
• How does the poverty, growth, and inequality
nexus work in Bangladesh?
• Is poverty correlated with human development
and gender equality?
• Has economic growth been pro-poor and to what
extent?
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(esu"ts: Pane" 4ata %stimates
T#B$% (%G(%SS)& (%S'$TS
Source: Computed using STATA.Note: Figures in parenthesis are p-values. ** and * indicate significance at 5 and 10 per
cent levels respectively.
Explanator !aria"le# '( )(*
PC$ %.0403625
&0.011)''
($ .68228*2&0.016)''
2.78126*&0.577)
$+E,- .105364*
&0.85*)
%8.452617
&0.325)
E/( .2158677
&0.532)
11.84443
&0.050)'
GE+DE .0352013
&0.843)
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(esu"ts: Growth ncidence
9urve
Source: Author’s own calculation
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Po"icy mp"ications
Growth Policies:
• Implement Appropriate Monetary and Fiscal Policies
• Improve Regional Connectivity
•Encourage Investment in the Industrial and Service
Sectors in the Lagging Divisions
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Po"icy mp"ications
Reduce Inequality and Develop Human Capital
• Industrial and Service Sectors Require Skilled
Professionals
• Reduce Inequality Through Education
• Improve Access to Health and Health Care Quality
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THE END