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THESIS DEFENSE

Aninda Mustafa

Department of Economics

Independent University, Bangladesh

PRO-POOR GROWTH AND REGIONALPOVERTY DYNAMICS IN BANGLADESH: A

PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

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Structure of the Presentation

•

Importance and Significance• Background

• Research Questions

•

Results and Policy Implications

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Why is this study important?

• Investigates poverty dynamics in Bangladesh

• Regional analysis with the latest data

• Vision 2021

1.Increase economic growth to 10%

2.Reduce poverty to 14%

3.Become a middle-income nation

4.Developing human capital and improving gender

equality

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Background: Pro-poor Growth

‘Growth that benefits the poor’ (UN 2000, OECD2001)

‘What enables the poor to actively and directlyparticipate in and significantly benefit fromeconomic activity’ (Kakwani and Pernia 2000).

1.The general definition

2.The strict definition• Relative pro-poor growth• Absolute pro-poor growth

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 The Poverty, Growth, and ne!ua"ity

 Triang"e

POVERTY

GROWTHINEQUALITY

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Bang"adesh: Growth Trend

 T#B$% #&&'#$ G()WT*

(#T%S

ndia Sri $anka &epa" Pakistan

+

.

/

01

2

3

FIGURE 1: ANNUAL GDP GROWTH OF OTHER COUNTRIES

#nnua" rate of G4P growth

% values

Source: BBS 5various years6

Source: World Bank 

  1980-89 1990-99 2000-10 2010-14

GDP growth 3.72 4.80 5.82 6.20

Population growth 2.01 1.70 1.32 1.20Per Capita GDP growth 1.68 3.05 4.44 5.03

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Bang"adesh: Growth Trend

Source: BBS (various ears).

Sectoral Share

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Bang"adesh: Poverty Trend

7708+ +++8+ ++08+ ++8++

+

+

.+

/+

0+

1+

2+

Barisa" 9hittagong 4haka

hu"na (a;shahi

*%#49)'&T (#T% B< #4=&ST(#T>%4>S)&S

Source: BBS (variousyears)

a!shahi " 1#8 $ercentae$oints&year

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Poverty =ap 4istance from 4haka

Source: World Bank

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Bang"adesh ne!ua"ity Trend

72.8+ 738+ 73.8+ 7308+ 7338+ 778+ 7708+ +++8+ ++08+ ++8+

+8.

+8.0

+8/

+8/0

+80

+800

Income Gini Trend

&#T)&#$ ('(#$ '(B#&

Source: BBS (variousyears)

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(esearch @uestions

• How does the poverty, growth, and inequality

nexus work in Bangladesh?

• Is poverty correlated with human development

and gender equality?

• Has economic growth been pro-poor and to what

extent?

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(esu"ts: Pane" 4ata %stimates

 T#B$% (%G(%SS)& (%S'$TS

Source: Computed using STATA.Note: Figures in parenthesis are p-values. ** and * indicate significance at 5 and 10 per

cent levels respectively.

Explanator !aria"le# '( )(*

PC$ %.0403625

&0.011)''

($ .68228*2&0.016)''

2.78126*&0.577)

$+E,- .105364*

&0.85*)

%8.452617

&0.325)

E/( .2158677

&0.532)

11.84443

&0.050)'

GE+DE .0352013

&0.843)

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(esu"ts: Growth ncidence

9urve

Source: Author’s own calculation

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Po"icy mp"ications

Growth Policies:

• Implement Appropriate Monetary and Fiscal Policies

• Improve Regional Connectivity

•Encourage Investment in the Industrial and Service

Sectors in the Lagging Divisions

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Po"icy mp"ications

Reduce Inequality and Develop Human Capital

• Industrial and Service Sectors Require Skilled

Professionals

• Reduce Inequality Through Education

• Improve Access to Health and Health Care Quality

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THE END