Fast railA catalyst for growth in the regions
2 Fast Rail — A catalyst for growth in the regions
Executive summary ................................................................................................................................4
1 Introduction .........................................................................................................................................5
1.1Strikingtherightbalanceforcitiesandregions............................................................................ 5
1.2Maximisingfastrailbenefitsforregionalcentres........................................................................ 6
2 Why do more for the regions? .........................................................................................................8
2.1Improvingliveabilityandwellbeingforcityandregionalareas............................................. 8
2.2RecalibratingafterCOVID-19................................................................................................................ 10
3 What does it take to grow regions? ................................................................................................11
3.1Spain................................................................................................................................................................. 11
3.2Taiwan............................................................................................................................................................. 12
3.3France............................................................................................................................................................. 12
4 How can fast rail planning realise the right balance between city commuting and regional centre growth? ....................................................................................................................13
4.1Creatinghigh-endopportunitiesaheadoffastrail...................................................................... 13
4.2Enablingcityliving-regionalworking............................................................................................... 15
4.3Locatingfastrailstationsaspartofabroaderhub.................................................................... 16
4.4Evolvingprojecteconomicappraisaltoolsandtechniquestofindtherightbalance for regional centres.................................................................................................................................. 16
5 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................18
Where to next ..........................................................................................................................................19
References ................................................................................................................................................20
Disclaimer: Inpreparingthisdocument,Jacobshasreliedupon,andpresumedaccurate,informationfrompubliclyavailablesources.Exceptasotherwisestatedinthedocument,Jacobshasnotattemptedtoverifytheaccuracyorcompletenessofanysuchinformation.Iftheinformationissubsequentlydeterminedtobefalse,inaccurateorincompletethenitispossiblethatourobservationsandconclusionsasexpressedinthisdocumentmaychange.
Jacobsderivedthedatainthisdocumentfrominformationavailableinternallyandinthepublicdomainatthetimeortimesoutlinedinthisdocument.Thepassageoftime,manifestationoflatentconditionsorimpactsoffutureeventsmayrequirefurtherexaminationoftheprojectandsubsequentdataanalysis,andre-evaluationofthedata,findings,observationsandconclusionsexpressedinthisdocument.
Jacobshaspreparedthisdocumentinaccordancewiththeusualcareandthoroughnessoftheconsultingprofession,forthesolepurposedescribedaboveandbyreferencetoapplicablestandards,guidelines,proceduresandpracticesatthedateofissueofthisdocument.Forthereasonsoutlinedabove,however,nowarrantyorguarantee,whetherexpressedorimplied,ismadeastothedata,observationsandfindingsexpressedinthisdocument,totheextentpermittedbylaw.
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PublishedNovember2020.©Copyright2020,Jacobs.Allrightsreserved.
Contents
3 Fast Rail — A catalyst for growth in the regions
AuthorsGAVIN ALFORD PrincipalUrban Economist— Cities&PlacesSolutions,AustraliaandNewZealand
JONATHAN TAYLOR TechnicalDirector—TransportEconomics&Policy,StrategicConsulting,AsiaPacific
ExecutiveSponsorANDREW TINGAY GlobalSolutionsDirector—StrategicConsulting
Editor/ProjectManagerEMMA STANLEY MarketingManager—Content,AsiaPacific
GraphicDesignerGEORGINA BROWN Marketing&DesignCoordinator,AsiaPacific
Contributors&Reviewers
JEANINE ARUNDALE RegionalMarketing&CommunicationsManager—NewZealand
NICOLE CARTER UndergraduateEconomist
SARAH CROWLEY SeniorStrategicAdvisor—Cities &Places,AustraliaandNewZealand
DANIEL HARNEY RegionalSolutionsDirector—TransportPlanning,AsiaPacific
JESSIKA HOLGATE GraduateStrategicAdvisor
RACHAEL MILLAR MarketingManager —Partnerships,AsiaPacific
MOLLY PISASALE GraduateEconomist
JOHN RICHARDSON TechnicalLeader—TransportModelling&TransportPlanning
HUGH SHEEHAN SustainabilityConsultant
YUYU ZHANG TechnicalDirector—Rail&TransitPlanning,AsiaPacific
Acknowledgements
4 Fast Rail — A catalyst for growth in the regions
Newfastrailconnectionscouldplayakeyroleinourfuturepopulationsettlementpatternsbyfacilitatingregionalcitylivingforcapitalcityworkers.COVID-19willchangewherepeoplewanttoworkfromandwherebusinessesestablish.Earlyindicationsarepeoplewillworkfromhomemoreandmaychoosetoliveoutsideourcapitalcities.Forexample,arecentsurveybyJacobscommissionedbyUnitedKingdomNationalRailDeliveryGroupshowedcommutersexpecttobeworkingfromhomearoundtwoandahalfdaysaweekoncetheriskofinfectionwasacceptable,upfromjusthalfadaypre-pandemic.
However,akeyquestionthatisyettobeansweredinproceedingwithfastrailis: How will fast rail benefit regional economies beyond providing access to jobs and activities in capital cities?
Overseas,fastandhighspeedrailprojectsconnectingregionalcentrestocapitalcitieshaveproducedmixedresultsforregionalcentres.Thosethathavethrivedandbecomevibrantplacestoliveandworkhavestruckthebalancebetweenbecomingcommutertownsforcapitalcitiesandestablishingthemselvesaseconomichubsintheirownright;buildingtheirownidentityandattractingnewinvestments,businessesandpeopletotheregion.
Rightnow,asubstantialnumberofjobsinregionalcentrescaterforthecurrentorfuturepopulation;forexample,retail,health,educationandconstructionjobs.Thesejobshavelowflowoneffectsandcontributetoanemploymentlaginregionalcentreswherepopulationgrowsfasterthanjobs.
Incomparison,jobsinindustrysectorssuchasprofessionalservicesorfinance,whicharecurrentlyconcentratedinourcapitalcities,havegreaterflowoneffects.Itisthese“catalyst”jobsthatwillmakearealdifferencetothestructureofregionaleconomiesanddriveregionaleconomicdevelopment.
To fully unlock the economic potential of Australia’s regional centres, we believe fast rail projects must consider the need to attract high-end catalyst jobs to regional centres.
Thispaperidentifiesfouractionsthatwillassistinshapingfastrailprojectstobefacilitatorsforregionaleconomicdevelopmentratherthansimplyextendingthecommuterbeltofnearbycapitalcities:
´ Creatinghigh-endcatalystemploymentopportunitiesaheadoffastrailarrival.
´ Enablingregionalworkerstoretainpersonalandprofessionalconnectionsbyfacilitatingcity-living/regional-workingthroughreliableandconvenienttraveltimesinbothdirections.
´ Locatingfastrailstationsaspartofabroaderhub.
´ Evolvingprojecteconomicappraisaltoolsandtechniquestofindtherightbalanceforregionalcentres.
Implementingthesefouractionswillrequirejoinedupplanning,procurementanddelivery,involvingrelevantfastrailauthorities,partsofStateGovernment(e.g.planning,health,educationetc.),CommonwealthGovernment(e.g.regionalinfrastructure)andthelocalcouncils.
Executive Summary
5 Fast Rail — A catalyst for growth in the regions
1.1 StrikingtherightbalanceforcitiesandregionsFast,frequentandreliablerailservicescanchangetheeconomicdynamicsofcitiesandregions.
BritishRailintroducedfast125mph(200kph)servicesonmanyintercityroutesinthe1980s.Thisledtoabigincreaseinlongerdistancecommutingonthesecorridors,especiallytoandfromlocationswithin60to90minutesofLondon,andthegreaterengagementofregionalcentreswiththecityeconomy(Figure1).
MiltonKeynes(c.200,000people)isonetheselocationsandisafastrailsuccessstory.TheregionalcityhasbeenabletostriketherightbalancebetweenbeingamajorcommuterregionforLondonwhilstalsoattractinginwardcommutingfromotherregionaltowns.
Figure 1: SouthEastEngland-SelectedFast Rail CommuterRoutes4
Reliablefastrailservicescombinedwiththeabilitytoattractlargebusinessesofferinghigherwagejobs,hasseenMiltonKeynesbecomeavibrantplacetoliveand/orwork.Anumberoflargeestablishedbusinessesuseitasabase,andithasoneofthehighestbusinessstart-upratesinthecountry.1Similarly,Swindon(c200,000people)hasgrownrapidlyduetofasterlinkstoandfromLondonandisamajoremploymentcentreitself.
Ontheotherhand,Peterborough’spopulation(c100,000people)hasgrownrapidlyduetotheeasycommuteintoLondon.However,unlikeMiltonKeynesandSwindon,ithasnotyetestablisheditselfasaprominenteconomichubwherepeoplelive,workandplay.ItreliesonthefastrailnetworktoconnectitspopulationtojobsinLondonandCambridge.2
IntheUKtoday,High-SpeedRail2(HS2)(Figure2)isunderway.OpponentshavearguedthatreducedtraveltimesbetweenBirmingham-LondonandManchester-LondonwilldrawthesecitiesfurtherintoLondon’scommutercatchmentbelt3,potentiallyhollowingoutlocaleconomiesforthecapital’sgain.London’sinfluenceonitssurroundingregionshasalreadyincreasedinsomepartsoftheUKand,particularlyinBirmingham,thereisariskthatreducedtraveltimestoLondonwillencouragegrowthinservicesdeliveredbycity-basedprovidersintheregionalcentre3,furthererodinglocaleconomicgrowth.
Toovercometherisks,HS2hasworkedcloselywiththeregionalcityplanningauthoritiestointegratestationsintoregionalcityplanning,aligningwithregionaltransportlinks,puttingstationsattheheartofregenerativedevelopmentandmakingstationsa“destination”intheirownright.
1
Cambridge
London
BrightonSouthampton
BristolCardiff
Oxford
Swindon (Great Western
Railway)
Milton Keynes (AvantiWestCoastLine)
Peterborough (LondonNorthEasternRailway)
Introduction
6 Fast Rail — A catalyst for growth in the regions
1.2 Maximisingfastrailbenefitsfor regional centres
Figure 2: HighSpeedRail2intheUK5
InMarch2019,theAustralianGovernmentannouncedmeasurestotakethepressureoffourcapitalcitiesbydistributingpopulationgrowthmoreevenlyacrosscityandregionalcentresandsupportingregionaleconomicgrowth.6Fastraillinkingcapitalcitieswithnearbymajorregionalcentreswasidentifiedasaprioritymeasure.
Today,theAustralianNationalFasterRailAgencyisworkingalongsideStateGovernmentsandsomeprivatesectorproponentstoprogressbusinesscasesforfastrailcorridorsinVictoria,NewSouthWalesandQueensland(Figure3).Thecurrentplansfocusondeliveringfast,reliableandregularconnectionsfromregionalcentrestocapitalcitiesinthemorningandinthereversedirectionintheevening.Mostoftheseproposedroutesconnectregionalcentrestometropolitanandcentralbusinessdistrict(CBD)locations,withmanystoppingatoutersuburbanlocationsalongtheway.
Labourmarketeconomicssuggestthat,withimprovedtransportaccess,regional-basedemployeeswillseekoutjobopportunities(andhigherwages)inmetropolitanareas,particularlyinthemetropolitanCBD.Carefulplanningisneededtomitigatethepotentialdownsidesoffastrailforregionalcentres,suchasbecomingadormitorysuburbforcapitalcitiesandthehollowingoutofregionaleconomies.
AsAustraliaembarksonitsownfastrailjourney,thecriticalquestionforplannersis:
How can regional centres maximise the growth opportunities created by fast rail and avoid becoming just a dormitory suburb of a capital city?
Confirmed HS2 line
Existing Lines
Euston London
Birmingham
ManchesterLiverpool
Glasgow
CreweDerby-Nottingham (Toton)
Sheffield (Newstation)
Leeds
Newcastle
Edinburgh
BirminghamAirport
ManchesterAirport
Fast or high speed rail - is the definition important? Whilstthereisnouniversallyagreeddefinition,weconsiderfastrailtorefertorollingstockandinfrastructurecapableofprovidingspeedsofbetween160km/hand250km/handhighspeedrailtothatcapableofprovidingspeedsofgreaterthan250km/h.
Forthepurposeofthispaperhowever,thedefinitionsarelargelyirrelevant.What’simportantfromaregionalgrowthperspectivearethechallengesandopportunitiesfasterconnections—inAustralia’scase,fastrailconnections—betweenregionalcentresandcapitalcitiesmightbring.
7 Fast Rail — A catalyst for growth in the regions
Figure 3: Routeswithbusinesscasefundingcurrentlyunderinvestigation7
Sunshine Coast
BrisbaneToowoomba
Gold Coast
Queensland
´ BrisbanetoSunshine Coast
´ BrisbanetoToowoomba
´ BrisbanetoGold Coast
SydneyWollongong
NowraGoulburnCanberra
LithgowBathurst
OrangeParkes
Central Coast
Newcastle
New South Wales
´ SydneytoNowra
´ SydneytoNewcastle
´ SydneytoCanberra
´ SydneytoParkes
SunshineMelbourne
Geelong
Greater Shepparton
Traralgon
Albury -Wodonga
Victoria
´ MelbournetoAlbury-Wodonga
´ MelbournetoTraralgon
´ MelbournetoGreater Shepparton
´ MelbournetoGeelong
8 Fast Rail — A catalyst for growth in the regions
Fordecades,Australiahasexperiencedsteadypopulationandeconomicgrowth.
Inthelast30years,ourpopulationhasincreasedbyaround66%.8Muchofthatgrowthhasbeencentredinourcapitalcities.Around70%oftheAustralianpopulationliveinacapitalcityandin2019,capitalcitiesaccommodatedaround79%oftotalpopulationgrowth.9Infact,exceptfortheNorthernTerritory,populationgrowthincapitalcitiesoutstrippedtherestoftheirrespectivestatebynearly2:1(Figure4).
Figure 4: 2018/19Populationchangeincitiesandregions9
QLD NSW ACT VIC SA TAS WA NT
Capital City 2.1% 1.7% 1.5% 2.3% 1.0% 1.5% 1.3% -0.8%
Rest of State 1.3% 0.8% n/a 1.4% 0.4% 0.9% -0.01% 0.01%
Populationgrowthandurbanisationbringwiththemahostofchallenges,includingunbalancedjobcreation,pooraccesstoemploymentcentres,increasinglyunaffordablehousing,congestedroadsandpublictransport,andharder-to-accessservicessuchashealthandeducation.
Toaccommodaterecentrapidpopulationgrowth,thegreatermetropolitanareasofourcapitalcitiesarerapidlyexpandingintotheirreceptivehinterlandsand,insomeinstances,engulfingnearbyregionalcentres.
Theseperi-urbanorhinterlandareasareprojectedtocontinuetogrowatapproximately1.5%perannum.14
2.1Improvingliveabilityandwellbeingforcitiesandregionalcentres
The growing cost of congestion in AustraliaAsthedistancebetweenourhomesandworkplacesgrows,roadcongestionbecomesaveryrealissueformanyfamilies,particularlythoselivingintheoutersuburbs.Italsocomesatasignificanteconomiccosttothenation.AccordingtoInfrastructureAustralia,roadcongestionandpublictransportcrowdingcosttheAustralianeconomy$19billionin2016,andthefigureisexpectedtoriseto$39.8billionby2031.10
2Why do more for the regions?
9 Fast Rail — A catalyst for growth in the regions
Manyareascurrentlylackthesocial,economic,environmentalandphysicalinfrastructureneededtosupportpopulationsofthissize.14
Economicgrowthhasalsocentredaroundourcapitalcities.
BeforetherecentCOVID-19inducedrecession,Australiaenjoyedanunprecedentedperiodofsustainedeconomicgrowth.For28straightyearsthesizeoftheAustralianeconomyincreased15and,duringthistime,itscharacteristicschangedconsiderably.Manufacturingdeclinedandbusinessservicesgrewaspartofanewknowledge-basedeconomy.
Itturnsoutthetypesofjobsrequiredinaknowledge-basedeconomythriveaspartofacentralbusinessdistrictandmanyofourcities,particularlyMelbourneandSydney,haveevolvedintointernationalcentresforfinancialandprofessionalservices.
Today,inVictoriaandNewSouthWales,capitalcityeconomicgrowthismorethanthreetimestherateofregionalandruralareas.InQueensland,theSouthEasthasgrownnearlytwiceasfastastherestofthestate(Figure5).
Inrecentyearsthough,economicgrowthhadsloweddown.This,inconjunctionwithourover-relianceonMelbourneandSydneytodriveAustralia’seconomy,promptedtheBusinessCouncilofAustraliatopubliclycallongovernmenttoselect10regionalcitiesasafocusforrenewedinvestmentto‘powertheeconomy.16CitiessuchasGeelong,Ballarat,Newcastle,Wollongong,ToowoombaandBusseltonweresuggestedascontenders.WiththeexceptionofBusselton,allareregionallocationsearmarkedforpotentialfastrailconnectionsintheAustralianGovernment’sFastRailPlan.17
$500,000
$450,000
$400,000
$350,000
$300,000
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000
$100,000
$50,000
$0
GrossDom
esticProduct(Millions)
3.5%
2.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
GreaterSydney Greater Melbourne
SouthEastQueensland
RestofNSW RestofVIC RestofQLD
FY19GrossDomesticProduct FY09-FY19CompoundAnnualGrowthRate
Figure 5: CityversusRegionalGrowthrates11,12,13
10 Fast Rail — A catalyst for growth in the regions
2.2 RecalibratingafterCOVID-19Wecan’ttalkaboutfuturegrowthwithoutreflectingontheemergenceofCOVID-19anditsimpacts.Forthefirsttimeinageneration,oureconomicfutureisuncertain,andapositivepathforwardisfarfromassured.
Thechangesthepandemichasbrought—particularlywhenitcomestoflexibleworking—presentnewopportunitiesforcitiesandregionalcentresthatcouldbeleveragedthroughfastrailinvestments.
Withinthespaceofafewweeks,thenumberofAustraliansworkingfromhomeincreasedtosomewherebetween32%18 and46%.19FromMarchtoJune(andlongerforMelbournians),millionsofAustralianslivedandworkedalmostentirelylocally–nolongercommutingtoaworkplace,travellinginter-stateorflyingoverseasforholidaysandbusiness.Anecdotally,thistimeathomehascausedmanytoquestionhigherdensitycity-orientedlife;living,working,schoolingandsocialisinginregionallocationshasbecomeincreasinglyappealingtomanyAustralians.
Already,businesseshaveandwillcontinuetodevelopmoreappropriatedistributedandphysicalspacestoprovideenhancedexperience,flexibilityandresiliencyfortheirworkforceandoperations.FastrailcouldplayacriticalroleinhelpingthemnavigateaCOVID-19reshapedworldandimprovetheliveabilityandproductivityofourcitiesandregionalcentres.Withbetteraccessibilitytoandfromregionalcentreshelpingtoovercomethetraditionalbarriertoattractingtalenttotheregions,businessescouldstarttorespond,adaptingtothe“livingwithCOVID-19”environment,byseekingalternateworkplacelocationsinregionalcentres,eitherchoosingtorelocateorprovidingasecondoffice.
Overall,thisispotentiallygoodnewsallround,likelytocontributetoimprovingemployeewellbeingandretention,reducingbusinesscostsandcreatingamoreattractiveandcompetitiveenvironmentforbusinessestodriveinvestment.
COVID-19 impacts on rail demandArecentsurveyconductedbyourteamintheUKforNationalRail’sRailDeliveryGroupinvestigatedthelongertermimpactofCOVID-19andchangesinworkingfromhomepatternsonraildemand.Thesurveyfoundthatrailcommutersanticipateamajorshiftintheirworkingfromhomepatternspost-COVID.Prelockdown,railcommutersreportedanaverage0.5daysspentworkingfromhomeeachweek,comparedtoananticipated2.6dayseachweekspentworkingfromhomepost-COVID.Thetechnologyandprofessionalsectorsexpectedtoseethelargestshift.
11 Fast Rail — A catalyst for growth in the regions
Highspeedrail(HSR)wasfirstintroducedinSpainin1992withanewconnectionbetweenSevilleandMadrid.
WithregionalpopulationandeconomicgrowthkeydriversforAustralianfastrailinvestments,it’sprudentforustolookatwherefastrailasbeensuccessfulandunsuccessfulasadriverofregionaldevelopmentandwhy.TheUKhasseenmixedresultsasdiscussedatthebeginningofthepaper.Someregionalcentreshavedevelopedintovibrantplacestoliveandworkasaresultofnewfastrailconnections,whileothershavenot.ThelessonslearnedarebeingactivelyappliedtoHS2tohelpregionalcitiesnewlyconnectedtoLondonretainandgrowtheirownuniqueidentities.
OtherinternationalcasestudiesprovidefurtherinsightsintothepotentialimpactofAustralia’sinvestmentinfastrailconnectionslinkingregionalcentresandcapitalcities.
TheAustralianGovernment’s High Speed Rail Phase 2 Report20providesanexcellentoverviewofhighspeedraildevelopmentglobally,andwenotethekeylessonslearnedfromanumberofthesebelow.
3.1 Spain
AsecondlinelinkingMadridtoBarcelonafollowedsomeyearslater.Thenetworkconnectsintermediateandsmallersizedregionalcitiestothecapital.
Twointermediate-sizedcities,CordobaandZaragoza,havebenefitedthemostfromHSR.Alreadyhometohigh-endcatalystjobsectorsbeforeHSRarrived,thenewconnectionreinforcedtheirroleasprincipalcitieswithintheirrespectivesub-regions.
TheyhavebothbecomeprominentemploymentandamenityhubsoutsideofSevilleandMadridandcommutinghasincreasedinbothdirections.
Smallerregionalcitiesalsobenefitedandexperiencedemploymentgrowth,especiallythosewithin60to90minutesofamajorcitywherecommutinginbothdirectionsincreased.
Inadditiontothepresenceofcatalystjobsectors,thelocationandamenityofstationprecinctsintheregionalcentreswerecritical.Precinctswereincentrallocationssurroundedbydevelopablelandandwereplannedtocaterforhigh-amenity,multi-purposeusers;forexample,office,retail,residential,hotelandconferencefacilities.Theywereservicedbycomplementarytransportthatprovidedconnectivitytosurroundingareasandwerefundedbyamixofpublicandprivateinvestment.
TheSpanishexperienceindicatesthattherearenumerousbenefitstobegainedbycombiningrailinvestmentwithcatalystjobsinuniversities,hospitals,governmentofficesandsupportingtherelocationofbackofficefunctionsoflargercentre-basedbusinesses.21
3What does it take to grow the regions?
12 Fast Rail — A catalyst for growth in the regions
TheTaiwanHigh-SpeedRail(THSR)connectionopenedin2007andlinksTaiwan’stwolargestcities,TaipeiandKaohsiungCity,witheightstationsalongtheway.The
servicereducedafour-hourroadtripto90minutesnon-stoportwohourswithstops.
ThefivemajorstationslocatedoutsideTaipeiandKaohsiungwereestablishedinregionallocationsandearmarkedasfuturenewcities–agovernmentpriorityatthetime.Eachwasassigneditsownuniquecatalystjobspecialisation:internationalbusiness,biomedicaltechnology,entertainmentandshopping,leisureandtourism,andbioscienceresearch.
Whileacombinationofshortconnectiontimes,effectivelanduseandpublicinfrastructureplanning,andflagshipprojectsaccelerateddevelopmentintheseareas,THSRhasinitiallyhadlittleimpactonregionaldevelopment.Thegovernmenthassincedevelopedstrategiesaimedatdrivingpopulationandeconomicgrowthintheseareas.
Taiwan’sexperiencehighlightstheneedtoputdevelopmentstrategiesinplaceforareassurroundingregionalstations,forcollaborationbetweenlocalgovernmentanddevelopersandforgoodconnectionstoothertransportmodes.
France’shighspeedrailservice,TrainàGrandeVitesse,commencedover35yearsagoandconnectsmultipleregions.
MuchlikeSpain,centreswithexistinghigh-endcatalystjobfocusedsectorshavebenefitedthemostfromfasterconnectionswhichhavehelpedspuronregionaldevelopment.Manyhavedevelopedintomajoreconomicandemploymentcentresintheirownright,oftenestablishingthemselvesasabusinessandemploymenthubforasmallnumberofservice-focusedindustriesorsectors.Employeesintheseservice-focusedsectorstravelfrequentlyforworkwhichgeneratescommutinginbothdirections.Incontrast,regionsthatreliedmainlyonmanufacturing,agricultureandminingbenefitedlittlefromthenewconnections.
Thecloseproximityofstationstotheexistingtown,collaborationwithgovernmenttoimplementbroaderplanningpoliciesandtheexistenceofcatalystjobsectorshavehelpeddeliverpositivegrowth.
LikeSpain,France’sexperienceshowsthepresenceofhigh-endservicesectorjobsiskeytodrivingdevelopmentinregionalcentres.
3.3 France
3.2 Taiwan
13 Fast Rail — A catalyst for growth in the regions
Torealisetherightbalance,fastrailplanningshouldconsiderthefollowingfouractions:
´ Creatinghighendopportunitiesaheadoffastrail.
´ Enablingcity-living,regionalworking.
´ Locatingfastrailaspartofabroaderhub.
´ Evolvingprojecteconomicappraisaltoolsandtechniquestofindtherightbalanceforregionalcentres.
Figure 6: Medianweeklyhouseholdincome22
2006 2011 2016 Change 2006-16
Ballarat $839 $998 $1,171 $332
Greater Melbourne $1,079 $1,333 $1,542 $463
Toowoomba $960 $1,095 $1,298 $338
Greater Brisbane $1,111 $1,388 $1,562 $451
Wollongong $903 $1,164 $1,413 $510
Greater Sydney $1,154 $1,447 $1,750 $596
4.1 Creatinghigh-endopportunitiesaheadoffastrailFastrailplanningshouldconsidertheneedtoattract new businesses and new jobs,particularlycatalystjobs,toregionalareas.Catalystjobs(higherwageandentrepreneurialjobs)locatedinregionalcentrescouldhelpmitigatethepotentialdownsidesfastrailconnectionsposetoregionalcentres,namelybecomingdormantfeedersuburbsforcapitalcitiesandthehollowingoutoflocaleconomies.
Historically,inregionalcentresthereisalagbetweengrowthinpopulationandgrowthinjobstosatisfytheexpandingpopulation.Intheabsenceofsuitablejobs,regionalworkersoftenacceptlowerpaidjobsforwhichtheyareoverqualified.
4How can fast rail planning realise the right balance between city commuting & regional centre growth?
14 Fast Rail — A catalyst for growth in the regions
Thisleadstoregionalunder-employment,lowerlabourforceparticipationrates,greaterlabourforcegenderimbalancesandde-skilling.
Themedianhouseholdincomeinregionalcentresishistoricallywellbelowthatinmetropolitancentreanditcontinuestofallfurtherbehind(Figure6).Ifnothingisdonetoaddresstheregionalemploymentlag,thewagegapbetweencityandregionalemployeeswillcontinuetogrow.
Forpopulationsandeconomiestothrive,regionalcentresneedcatalystjobswithhighemploymentmultipliereffects.
Catalystjobsaretypicallywhite-collarjobsthatarespecialisedandserviceawidemarket.Theyhavehighemploymentmultipliereffectsbecauseemployeesinwhite-collarjobsgenerallyhaveahigherdisposableincomeandconsumemore.
Rightnow,thecompositionofthejobsmarketvariesgreatlybetweencityandregionalareas(Figure7).Jobsinregionalcentresaretypicallyfocusedonregionalindustrysupport,
suchasprovidingservicestotheagriculturesectorandinsectorsservicingtheexistingpopulation,suchasretail,schools,healthandgovernmentservices;orinsectorsservicingfuturepopulations,suchasconstruction.
Thesetypesofjobshavelowmultipliereffects.24 Forexample,foreveryjobdirectlycreatedintheagriculturalsector,thereareanestimated0.46productioninducedeffectsjobsand0.46consumptioninducedeffectsjobs.25
Incomparison,jobsintheprofessional,scientific,technical,financialandinsurancesectorsthathavethrivedinourcapitalcitieshavehighemploymentmultipliereffects,generatingalotofsupportingactivity.Forexample,foreveryjobdirectlycreatedinthefinancesector,thereareanestimated0.5productioninducedeffectjobsand1consumptioninducedeffectsjobs.25
Fastrailplanningneedstocloselycollaboratewiththespheresofgovernmentresponsibleforregionaldevelopmentandindustryattractionnow,beforefastrailarrivesintown.
Figure 7: Compositionofthejobmarket-MelbourneversusBallarat23
Agriculture,Forestry&Fishing
Mining
Manufacturing
Electricity,Gas,Water&WasteServices
Construction
WholesaleTrade
RetailTrade
Accommodation&FoodServices
Transport,Postal&Warehousing
InformationMedia&Telecommunications
Financial&InsuranceServices
Rental,Hiring&RealEstateServices
Professional,Scientific&TechnicalServices
Administrative&SupportServices
PublicAdministration&Safety
Education&Training
HealthCare&SocialAssistance
Arts&RecreationServices
OtherServices
0% 6%2% 8%4% 10% 14% 18%12% 16% 20%
CityofBallaratCityofMelbourne
15 Fast Rail — A catalyst for growth in the regions
4.2
Enablingcityliving-regionalworkingToattract people with the requisite skills and experience tofulfilcatalystjobsinregionalcentresrequires:
1. Convenientandcompetitivetransportoptionstoandfromemploymentdestinations.
2. Accesstohighquality,activeand stimulatingamenitiesattheemploymentlocation.
3. Addressingtheperceptionthataregionaljobcanbedetrimentaltoyourprofessionalnetwork.
Convenient&competitivetransportoptionsTakingaregionaljobshouldn’thavetobeamajorlife-changingevent.Faster,moreconvenientandmoreaccessibleconnectionsfromcapitalcitiestoregionalcentresforwork wouldlimitthedisruption.Intime,somepeoplemaymovepermanentlytotheregional centres,butitshouldnotbeanecessity.
Fastrailtraveltimesbetween capitalcitiesandregionalcentresneedto becompetitive,convenientandfacilitatereversecommuting.Thismeansoperatingservicesatconvenientfrequenciesandprovidingconvenientheadways(frequencies).
Rightnow,manyregionalcentreslacka fullyfunctioning,connectedrailnetwork withconvenienttraveltimes.Insome
cases,existingservicesareslow,infrequent andlackcomfortablepassengeramenity. Forexample,inVictoria,Ballarat-basedemployeescantraveltoMelbourneinaround90minutesbytrain,butMelbourne-basedemployeescannoteasilycommutebyrail toBallarat.Thereareonlytwoinbound servicesinthemorningarrivingat7:44am or9:14am,providinglimitedflexibilityforinboundworkers.InQueensland,employeescommutingbetweenBrisbaneandthe nearestregionalinlandcentre,Toowoomba,can’tdirectlyconnectbyrail.
Highquality,activeandstimulatingamenitiesCityoriginstationsrequirerapid,directandmulti-modeaccessibilitytoensuretransfersanddoor-to-doorcommutesremain viable.Atregionaldestinationstations,placesofemploymentneedtobelocatedrelativelyclosetothestationwithsafeandconvenientwalkingpathsavailable.
AddressingperceptionsofpotentiallossofprofessionalnetworksEmployeesconsideringregionalworkingneedtobeabletomoveinandoutofregionaljobopportunitiesseamlessly,withoutseveringprofessionalconnections.Takingaregionaljobneedstobepartofanaturalcareerevolutionandnotbeperceivedashinderingfuturecareerprospects.
Personalinteractionwillremainakeypartofbusiness.OurexperienceduringCOVID-19hasshownthatdigitalengagementwhileworkingfromhome/remotelocationscanonlypartlyreplaceface-to-faceengagement.Toattractcatalystjobs,governmentandindustry/peakbodieswillneedtostrengthenprofessionalnetworksintheregionalcitiesandcentrestosupportcareerdevelopmentandfuturejobopportunitiesforemployees.Forexample,ConsultAustralia’sFutureNetinitiativedeliversindustrynetworkingandprofessionaldevelopmenteventsforyoungprofessionalsandhaslocalcommitteesinanumberofregionalcitiesandcentres.26
Industryattractionshouldtargetsectorswithhighmultipliereffects,suchasprofessionalservicesandfinance,whileretainingimportantfocusonexistingsectorssuchasagricultureandservices.Attractingthesecatalystjobstotheregionwillhelpmitigatetheregionalemploymentlag,diversifyandgrowregionaleconomies,andmakethemmoreresilientandlessvulnerabletodownturns.
16 Fast Rail — A catalyst for growth in the regions
4.3
LocatingfastrailstationsaspartofabroaderhubTomakeregionalcentresattractivetobusinessesthatwillbringcatalystjobs,fastrailplanningshouldconsider transport integration as part of a broader employment precinct.
Akeytake-outfromtheinternationalcasestudiesisintegratingthedesign,developmentanddeliveryoftheregionalstationswithwidereconomicdevelopmentpoliciesandprograms.Globally,regionalcentreshavethrivedwherefastrailstationsareaccessibletothesurroundingcommunityandformpartofabroaderhubwhichofferedarangeofhigh-amenitylandusesandevolvedintoaneconomiccentreovertime.
Regionalstationsshouldbelocatedcentrallyandsurroundedbydevelopableland.Thelanditselfshouldbeplannedtocaterforahigh-amenity,multi-purposeprecinctthatincludeoffices,retail,residential,hotelandpossibleconferencefacilities.Importantly,thedevelopmentshouldbefundedbyamixofpublicandprivateinvestmenttoincentivisecommercialreturnsandmaximisesuccess.
Theend-to-endjourneyisalsoimportant.Fastrailstationslocatedwithinwalkingdistanceofregionalprecinctswithahighlevelofamenitywillbeessentialtofacilitatingjobcreationanddemandforreversecommuting.Forexample,inBallarat,ToowoombaandWollongong,whicharealreadyhometohigh-end,servicefocusedjobsintheeducationsector,regional
stationscouldbelocatedincloseproximitytoexistingmajorregionaluniversitycampuses,suchasFederationUniversityAustralia,UniversityofSouthernQueenslandandUniversityofWollongongrespectively.
4.4
EvolvingprojecteconomicappraisaltoolsandtechniquestofindtherightbalanceforregionalcentresTofullyunlockeconomicpotentialinregionalcentres,fastrailprojectsneedtocarefullyconsidercateringforreversecommuters.Whilethiswouldenhancethetotaleconomicupliftintheregion,itwouldnotnecessarilyenhancetheeconomicviabilityoftheprojectitself.Infact,byanytraditionalmeasure,costswouldbehigher.Reversecommutingwouldrequiremoreupfrontcapitalforinfrastructureandrollingstock,andoperatingexpenditureandmaintenancecostswouldalsobehigher.
However,theeconomicappraisaloffastrailinvestmentsishighlylikelytobeenhancedifweassess the full value of the regional benefits delivered(Figure8).Forexample,thiscanbedonebyincorporatingthedirectandindirecteconomicdevelopmentbenefitsofgrowinghighendemployment,supportedinpartbyreversecommuting,intothevalueequation.
InAustralia,we’vebeenslowtoadvanceappraisaltechniquestocapturetheseimpacts.InfrastructureAustraliaencouragesproject
17 Fast Rail — A catalyst for growth in the regions
Thereareagrowingnumberoftoolsandtechniquesdesignedtohelpprojectsdefineandmeasurethebroadersocialvalueoftheirinvestments.
Ourrecentpaper,Before and Beyond the Build: A Blueprint for Generating Social Value through Infrastructure Investments,exploredthistopicindetail.
Ifwe’reexpandingourappraisalofinfrastructureinvestmentstodemonstratethetotalvalueoffastrailandtheeconomicupliftthatreversecommutingcouldprovidetoregionalcentres,wemustbepreparedtoinvestinthedata,toolsandmethodologiesneededtoforecastandcapturewiderimpacts.
Onesuchtoolisamodelthatforecaststheexpectedchangeinlanduseresultingfromnewtransportinfrastructure.LandUseandTransportInteraction(LUTI)modelsdatebacktothe1960’s.Variousmodelsexistandevenmoreareindevelopment,butthereiscurrentlynouniformlyacceptedapproach.Nowisthetimeforthemtobecomemainstreamandtransparent.
Transportprojectappraisalhasbeensuccessfulinthepastindevelopingnationalapproachessothatallprojectscanbeassessedonalevelplayingfield.ThisapproachneedstobemaintainedforLUTIdevelopmentandapplication.ThetransportinfrastructuresectormustdecidewhatitwantstoseeinaLUTImodeltomakesureitincludestherightmetricsandiseffectiveincapturingtheregionalimpactsoffastrail.
teamstoreportonwidereconomicbenefits,buttherearecurrentlynoguidelinesonhowtodothisinanappropriateandconsistentmanner.Movingforward,wemustbeabletodemonstratethetotalvalueofinvestmentbeyondthenarrowfocusofuserbenefits.
Ourthinkingmustalsomovebeyondtraditionaleconomicappraisalssothatwecanbegintocapturethesocialvaluecreatedbythistypeofinvestment.Socialvaluemeasuresthepositiveimpactofprojectsonregions,communitiesandindividualsthatcannotbedefinedbyconventionaleconomicmeasures;forexample,theconfidencepeoplegainwhensecuringacatalyststylejobormoresecureemployment,orbeingabletoliveclosetofamilyandfriends.
Figure 8: Assessingfullvalue
City shaping impact
Economic value
Land use outcomes
Social value
18 Fast Rail — A catalyst for growth in the regions
Connectingregionalcentrestocapitalcitieswithfastrailcouldbeagamechangerforregionaleconomies.Totrulythrive,regionalcentresmuststrikethebalancebetweenbeingacommutersettlementandavibrantplacetoliveandworkintheirownright.Toachievethis,fastrailplanningshouldconsiderhowimprovedrailconnectionscanfacilitatestrong,resilientandthrivingregionalcentres.
Tofacilitatethis,we’veidentifiedfourkeyplanningconsiderationsforfastrailprojects:
1.
2.
3.
4.Attractinghigh-end,catalystjobs,withhighermultipliereffectswillreducetheemploymentlaganddriveeconomicdevelopmentinregionalcentres.Fastrailplanningshouldcollaboratewithalllevelsofgovernmenttoensuretherightpoliciesandinitiativesareinplacetoattractnewindustriesandbusinessestoregionalcentresnow,beforefastrailarrives.
Takingaregionaljobneedstobenormalisedaspartofanaturalcareerprogression,notamajorlifechangingeventforemployees.Fastrailconnectionsshouldconsidercateringforbothregionalandcity-livingemployeesandfacilitatecommutinginbothdirections.
Locationwillinfluencethepotentialvalueofnewstationprecinctstoregionaleconomies.Fastrailplanningshouldconsidertransportintegrationaspartofabroaderemploymentprecinct.Stationprecinctsarebestlocatedclosetoexistingregionalemploymentprecinctsand/orbesurroundedbydevelopableland.Surroundinglandshouldbeplannedforarangeofhigh-amenityusestoencouragenewregionaleconomichubstobuildupovertime.
Projecteconomicappraisaltoolsandtechniquesmustcapturethefullvalueofnewfastrailconnectionstoregionalcentres.Fastrailplanningshouldrecognisethecity-shapingimpactsofmajortransportprojects,thebroader‘value’generatedfromtheseprojects—includingthesocialvaluegenerated—andinvestinthedata,toolsandmethodologiesneededtoforecastandcapturewiderimpacts,suchastheLUTImodel.
5Conclusion
ThereareofcourseothermajorchallengesandopportunitiesforfastrailinAustralia.Eachcorridorwillbeamajorprogramofworkthatrequirescarefulthoughtondesign,procurementapproachandriskmanagementthroughdelivery.
Onechallengethatwehavebeenthinkingaboutistheengineeringdesignandalignmentoffastrailroutesandhowwecanovercometopographicalandgeologicalchallengestoprovidestraighterandflatteralignmentssothatfastrailcanoperateatoptimalspeedsbetweenregionalcentresandcapitalcities.Straighter,flatteralignmentspresentsignificantconfigurationchallengestooptimisecostandbenefitfromcitycentreaccess.Thesechallengeswillbeexploredinasubsequenttechnicaldiscussionpaper.
Where to next
20 Fast Rail — A catalyst for growth in the regions
1. CityFactsheets–MiltonKeynes.(2020).RetrievedfromCentreforCitieswebsite:http://centreforcities.org/city/milton-keynes
2. Steer.(2019).TheCambridgeshireandPeterboroughLocalTransportPlan:EvidenceBase.RetrievedfromCambridgeshireandPeterboroughCombinedAuthoritywebsite:https://cambridgeshirepeterborough-ca.gov.uk/assets/Transport/20190520-CPCA-LTP-EvidenceBase-Annex-v3.0.pdf
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16. Bagshaw,E.(2019).Give10regionaltowns‘prioritystatus’topowertheeconomy:BusinessCouncil.RetrievedfromTheAgewebsite:https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/give-10-regional-towns-priority-status-to-power-the-economy-business-council-20191125-p53dve.html
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19. HouseholdImpactsofCOVID-19Survey-29April-4 May2020.(2020).RetrievedfromAustralianBureauofStatisticswebsite:https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/people-and-communities/household-impacts-covid-19-survey/29-apr-4-may-2020#job-situation-and-working-from-home-arrangements
20. TheHighSpeedRailStudyPhase2Report.(2013).RetrievedfromAustralianGovernmentDepartmentofInfrastructureandTransportwebsite:https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/rail/publications/high-speed-rail-study-reports/files/HSR_Phase_2-Main_Report_Low_Res.pdf
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24. Weacknowledgethatdataonemploymentmultipliereffectsshouldbeusedwithcaution.Thefigurescitedinthispaperareintendedtohighlightthedifferencesbetweenproductionandinducedeffect.Weencouragefurtherresearchinthisarea.
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References
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