Fast railA catalyst for growth in the regions

2 Fast Rail — A catalyst for growth in the regions

Executive summary ................................................................................................................................4

1 Introduction .........................................................................................................................................5

1.1Strikingtherightbalanceforcitiesandregions............................................................................ 5

1.2Maximisingfastrailbenefitsforregionalcentres........................................................................ 6

2 Why do more for the regions? .........................................................................................................8

2.1Improvingliveabilityandwellbeingforcityandregionalareas............................................. 8

2.2RecalibratingafterCOVID-19................................................................................................................ 10

3 What does it take to grow regions? ................................................................................................11

3.1Spain................................................................................................................................................................. 11

3.2Taiwan............................................................................................................................................................. 12

3.3France............................................................................................................................................................. 12

4 How can fast rail planning realise the right balance between city commuting and regional centre growth? ....................................................................................................................13

4.1Creatinghigh-endopportunitiesaheadoffastrail...................................................................... 13

4.2Enablingcityliving-regionalworking............................................................................................... 15

4.3Locatingfastrailstationsaspartofabroaderhub.................................................................... 16

4.4Evolvingprojecteconomicappraisaltoolsandtechniquestofindtherightbalance for regional centres.................................................................................................................................. 16

5 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................18

Where to next ..........................................................................................................................................19

References ................................................................................................................................................20

Disclaimer: Inpreparingthisdocument,Jacobshasreliedupon,andpresumedaccurate,informationfrompubliclyavailablesources.Exceptasotherwisestatedinthedocument,Jacobshasnotattemptedtoverifytheaccuracyorcompletenessofanysuchinformation.Iftheinformationissubsequentlydeterminedtobefalse,inaccurateorincompletethenitispossiblethatourobservationsandconclusionsasexpressedinthisdocumentmaychange.

Jacobsderivedthedatainthisdocumentfrominformationavailableinternallyandinthepublicdomainatthetimeortimesoutlinedinthisdocument.Thepassageoftime,manifestationoflatentconditionsorimpactsoffutureeventsmayrequirefurtherexaminationoftheprojectandsubsequentdataanalysis,andre-evaluationofthedata,findings,observationsandconclusionsexpressedinthisdocument.

Jacobshaspreparedthisdocumentinaccordancewiththeusualcareandthoroughnessoftheconsultingprofession,forthesolepurposedescribedaboveandbyreferencetoapplicablestandards,guidelines,proceduresandpracticesatthedateofissueofthisdocument.Forthereasonsoutlinedabove,however,nowarrantyorguarantee,whetherexpressedorimplied,ismadeastothedata,observationsandfindingsexpressedinthisdocument,totheextentpermittedbylaw.

Thisdocumentshouldbereadinfullandnoexcerptsaretobetakenasrepresentativeofthefindings.Thedocumenthasbeenpreparedforinformationpurposesonly.NoresponsibilityisacceptedbyJacobsforuseofanypartofthisdocumentinanyothercontext.Jacobsacceptsnoliabilityorresponsibilitywhatsoeverfor,orinrespectof,anyuseof,orrelianceupon,thisdocumentbyanyparty.

PublishedNovember2020.©Copyright2020,Jacobs.Allrightsreserved.

Contents

3 Fast Rail — A catalyst for growth in the regions

AuthorsGAVIN ALFORD PrincipalUrban Economist— Cities&PlacesSolutions,AustraliaandNewZealand

JONATHAN TAYLOR TechnicalDirector—TransportEconomics&Policy,StrategicConsulting,AsiaPacific

ExecutiveSponsorANDREW TINGAY GlobalSolutionsDirector—StrategicConsulting

Editor/ProjectManagerEMMA STANLEY MarketingManager—Content,AsiaPacific

GraphicDesignerGEORGINA BROWN Marketing&DesignCoordinator,AsiaPacific

Contributors&Reviewers

JEANINE ARUNDALE RegionalMarketing&CommunicationsManager—NewZealand

NICOLE CARTER UndergraduateEconomist

SARAH CROWLEY SeniorStrategicAdvisor—Cities &Places,AustraliaandNewZealand

DANIEL HARNEY RegionalSolutionsDirector—TransportPlanning,AsiaPacific

JESSIKA HOLGATE GraduateStrategicAdvisor

RACHAEL MILLAR MarketingManager —Partnerships,AsiaPacific

MOLLY PISASALE GraduateEconomist

JOHN RICHARDSON TechnicalLeader—TransportModelling&TransportPlanning

HUGH SHEEHAN SustainabilityConsultant

YUYU ZHANG TechnicalDirector—Rail&TransitPlanning,AsiaPacific

Acknowledgements

4 Fast Rail — A catalyst for growth in the regions

Newfastrailconnectionscouldplayakeyroleinourfuturepopulationsettlementpatternsbyfacilitatingregionalcitylivingforcapitalcityworkers.COVID-19willchangewherepeoplewanttoworkfromandwherebusinessesestablish.Earlyindicationsarepeoplewillworkfromhomemoreandmaychoosetoliveoutsideourcapitalcities.Forexample,arecentsurveybyJacobscommissionedbyUnitedKingdomNationalRailDeliveryGroupshowedcommutersexpecttobeworkingfromhomearoundtwoandahalfdaysaweekoncetheriskofinfectionwasacceptable,upfromjusthalfadaypre-pandemic.

However,akeyquestionthatisyettobeansweredinproceedingwithfastrailis: How will fast rail benefit regional economies beyond providing access to jobs and activities in capital cities?

Overseas,fastandhighspeedrailprojectsconnectingregionalcentrestocapitalcitieshaveproducedmixedresultsforregionalcentres.Thosethathavethrivedandbecomevibrantplacestoliveandworkhavestruckthebalancebetweenbecomingcommutertownsforcapitalcitiesandestablishingthemselvesaseconomichubsintheirownright;buildingtheirownidentityandattractingnewinvestments,businessesandpeopletotheregion.

Rightnow,asubstantialnumberofjobsinregionalcentrescaterforthecurrentorfuturepopulation;forexample,retail,health,educationandconstructionjobs.Thesejobshavelowflowoneffectsandcontributetoanemploymentlaginregionalcentreswherepopulationgrowsfasterthanjobs.

Incomparison,jobsinindustrysectorssuchasprofessionalservicesorfinance,whicharecurrentlyconcentratedinourcapitalcities,havegreaterflowoneffects.Itisthese“catalyst”jobsthatwillmakearealdifferencetothestructureofregionaleconomiesanddriveregionaleconomicdevelopment.

To fully unlock the economic potential of Australia’s regional centres, we believe fast rail projects must consider the need to attract high-end catalyst jobs to regional centres.

Thispaperidentifiesfouractionsthatwillassistinshapingfastrailprojectstobefacilitatorsforregionaleconomicdevelopmentratherthansimplyextendingthecommuterbeltofnearbycapitalcities:

´ Creatinghigh-endcatalystemploymentopportunitiesaheadoffastrailarrival.

´ Enablingregionalworkerstoretainpersonalandprofessionalconnectionsbyfacilitatingcity-living/regional-workingthroughreliableandconvenienttraveltimesinbothdirections.

´ Locatingfastrailstationsaspartofabroaderhub.

´ Evolvingprojecteconomicappraisaltoolsandtechniquestofindtherightbalanceforregionalcentres.

Implementingthesefouractionswillrequirejoinedupplanning,procurementanddelivery,involvingrelevantfastrailauthorities,partsofStateGovernment(e.g.planning,health,educationetc.),CommonwealthGovernment(e.g.regionalinfrastructure)andthelocalcouncils.

Executive Summary

5 Fast Rail — A catalyst for growth in the regions

1.1 StrikingtherightbalanceforcitiesandregionsFast,frequentandreliablerailservicescanchangetheeconomicdynamicsofcitiesandregions.

BritishRailintroducedfast125mph(200kph)servicesonmanyintercityroutesinthe1980s.Thisledtoabigincreaseinlongerdistancecommutingonthesecorridors,especiallytoandfromlocationswithin60to90minutesofLondon,andthegreaterengagementofregionalcentreswiththecityeconomy(Figure1).

MiltonKeynes(c.200,000people)isonetheselocationsandisafastrailsuccessstory.TheregionalcityhasbeenabletostriketherightbalancebetweenbeingamajorcommuterregionforLondonwhilstalsoattractinginwardcommutingfromotherregionaltowns.

Figure 1: SouthEastEngland-SelectedFast Rail CommuterRoutes4

Reliablefastrailservicescombinedwiththeabilitytoattractlargebusinessesofferinghigherwagejobs,hasseenMiltonKeynesbecomeavibrantplacetoliveand/orwork.Anumberoflargeestablishedbusinessesuseitasabase,andithasoneofthehighestbusinessstart-upratesinthecountry.1Similarly,Swindon(c200,000people)hasgrownrapidlyduetofasterlinkstoandfromLondonandisamajoremploymentcentreitself.

Ontheotherhand,Peterborough’spopulation(c100,000people)hasgrownrapidlyduetotheeasycommuteintoLondon.However,unlikeMiltonKeynesandSwindon,ithasnotyetestablisheditselfasaprominenteconomichubwherepeoplelive,workandplay.ItreliesonthefastrailnetworktoconnectitspopulationtojobsinLondonandCambridge.2

IntheUKtoday,High-SpeedRail2(HS2)(Figure2)isunderway.OpponentshavearguedthatreducedtraveltimesbetweenBirmingham-LondonandManchester-LondonwilldrawthesecitiesfurtherintoLondon’scommutercatchmentbelt3,potentiallyhollowingoutlocaleconomiesforthecapital’sgain.London’sinfluenceonitssurroundingregionshasalreadyincreasedinsomepartsoftheUKand,particularlyinBirmingham,thereisariskthatreducedtraveltimestoLondonwillencouragegrowthinservicesdeliveredbycity-basedprovidersintheregionalcentre3,furthererodinglocaleconomicgrowth.

Toovercometherisks,HS2hasworkedcloselywiththeregionalcityplanningauthoritiestointegratestationsintoregionalcityplanning,aligningwithregionaltransportlinks,puttingstationsattheheartofregenerativedevelopmentandmakingstationsa“destination”intheirownright.

1

Cambridge

London

BrightonSouthampton

BristolCardiff

Oxford

Swindon (Great Western

Railway)

Milton Keynes (AvantiWestCoastLine)

Peterborough (LondonNorthEasternRailway)

Introduction

6 Fast Rail — A catalyst for growth in the regions

1.2 Maximisingfastrailbenefitsfor regional centres

Figure 2: HighSpeedRail2intheUK5

InMarch2019,theAustralianGovernmentannouncedmeasurestotakethepressureoffourcapitalcitiesbydistributingpopulationgrowthmoreevenlyacrosscityandregionalcentresandsupportingregionaleconomicgrowth.6Fastraillinkingcapitalcitieswithnearbymajorregionalcentreswasidentifiedasaprioritymeasure.

Today,theAustralianNationalFasterRailAgencyisworkingalongsideStateGovernmentsandsomeprivatesectorproponentstoprogressbusinesscasesforfastrailcorridorsinVictoria,NewSouthWalesandQueensland(Figure3).Thecurrentplansfocusondeliveringfast,reliableandregularconnectionsfromregionalcentrestocapitalcitiesinthemorningandinthereversedirectionintheevening.Mostoftheseproposedroutesconnectregionalcentrestometropolitanandcentralbusinessdistrict(CBD)locations,withmanystoppingatoutersuburbanlocationsalongtheway.

Labourmarketeconomicssuggestthat,withimprovedtransportaccess,regional-basedemployeeswillseekoutjobopportunities(andhigherwages)inmetropolitanareas,particularlyinthemetropolitanCBD.Carefulplanningisneededtomitigatethepotentialdownsidesoffastrailforregionalcentres,suchasbecomingadormitorysuburbforcapitalcitiesandthehollowingoutofregionaleconomies.

AsAustraliaembarksonitsownfastrailjourney,thecriticalquestionforplannersis:

How can regional centres maximise the growth opportunities created by fast rail and avoid becoming just a dormitory suburb of a capital city?

Confirmed HS2 line

Existing Lines

Euston London

Birmingham

ManchesterLiverpool

Glasgow

CreweDerby-Nottingham (Toton)

Sheffield (Newstation)

Leeds

Newcastle

Edinburgh

BirminghamAirport

ManchesterAirport

Fast or high speed rail - is the definition important? Whilstthereisnouniversallyagreeddefinition,weconsiderfastrailtorefertorollingstockandinfrastructurecapableofprovidingspeedsofbetween160km/hand250km/handhighspeedrailtothatcapableofprovidingspeedsofgreaterthan250km/h.

Forthepurposeofthispaperhowever,thedefinitionsarelargelyirrelevant.What’simportantfromaregionalgrowthperspectivearethechallengesandopportunitiesfasterconnections—inAustralia’scase,fastrailconnections—betweenregionalcentresandcapitalcitiesmightbring.

7 Fast Rail — A catalyst for growth in the regions

Figure 3: Routeswithbusinesscasefundingcurrentlyunderinvestigation7

Sunshine Coast

BrisbaneToowoomba

Gold Coast

Queensland

´ BrisbanetoSunshine Coast

´ BrisbanetoToowoomba

´ BrisbanetoGold Coast

SydneyWollongong

NowraGoulburnCanberra

LithgowBathurst

OrangeParkes

Central Coast

Newcastle

New South Wales

´ SydneytoNowra

´ SydneytoNewcastle

´ SydneytoCanberra

´ SydneytoParkes

SunshineMelbourne

Geelong

Greater Shepparton

Traralgon

Albury -Wodonga

Victoria

´ MelbournetoAlbury-Wodonga

´ MelbournetoTraralgon

´ MelbournetoGreater Shepparton

´ MelbournetoGeelong

8 Fast Rail — A catalyst for growth in the regions

Fordecades,Australiahasexperiencedsteadypopulationandeconomicgrowth.

Inthelast30years,ourpopulationhasincreasedbyaround66%.8Muchofthatgrowthhasbeencentredinourcapitalcities.Around70%oftheAustralianpopulationliveinacapitalcityandin2019,capitalcitiesaccommodatedaround79%oftotalpopulationgrowth.9Infact,exceptfortheNorthernTerritory,populationgrowthincapitalcitiesoutstrippedtherestoftheirrespectivestatebynearly2:1(Figure4).

Figure 4: 2018/19Populationchangeincitiesandregions9

QLD NSW ACT VIC SA TAS WA NT

Capital City 2.1% 1.7% 1.5% 2.3% 1.0% 1.5% 1.3% -0.8%

Rest of State 1.3% 0.8% n/a 1.4% 0.4% 0.9% -0.01% 0.01%

Populationgrowthandurbanisationbringwiththemahostofchallenges,includingunbalancedjobcreation,pooraccesstoemploymentcentres,increasinglyunaffordablehousing,congestedroadsandpublictransport,andharder-to-accessservicessuchashealthandeducation.

Toaccommodaterecentrapidpopulationgrowth,thegreatermetropolitanareasofourcapitalcitiesarerapidlyexpandingintotheirreceptivehinterlandsand,insomeinstances,engulfingnearbyregionalcentres.

Theseperi-urbanorhinterlandareasareprojectedtocontinuetogrowatapproximately1.5%perannum.14

2.1Improvingliveabilityandwellbeingforcitiesandregionalcentres

The growing cost of congestion in AustraliaAsthedistancebetweenourhomesandworkplacesgrows,roadcongestionbecomesaveryrealissueformanyfamilies,particularlythoselivingintheoutersuburbs.Italsocomesatasignificanteconomiccosttothenation.AccordingtoInfrastructureAustralia,roadcongestionandpublictransportcrowdingcosttheAustralianeconomy$19billionin2016,andthefigureisexpectedtoriseto$39.8billionby2031.10

2Why do more for the regions?

9 Fast Rail — A catalyst for growth in the regions

Manyareascurrentlylackthesocial,economic,environmentalandphysicalinfrastructureneededtosupportpopulationsofthissize.14

Economicgrowthhasalsocentredaroundourcapitalcities.

BeforetherecentCOVID-19inducedrecession,Australiaenjoyedanunprecedentedperiodofsustainedeconomicgrowth.For28straightyearsthesizeoftheAustralianeconomyincreased15and,duringthistime,itscharacteristicschangedconsiderably.Manufacturingdeclinedandbusinessservicesgrewaspartofanewknowledge-basedeconomy.

Itturnsoutthetypesofjobsrequiredinaknowledge-basedeconomythriveaspartofacentralbusinessdistrictandmanyofourcities,particularlyMelbourneandSydney,haveevolvedintointernationalcentresforfinancialandprofessionalservices.

Today,inVictoriaandNewSouthWales,capitalcityeconomicgrowthismorethanthreetimestherateofregionalandruralareas.InQueensland,theSouthEasthasgrownnearlytwiceasfastastherestofthestate(Figure5).

Inrecentyearsthough,economicgrowthhadsloweddown.This,inconjunctionwithourover-relianceonMelbourneandSydneytodriveAustralia’seconomy,promptedtheBusinessCouncilofAustraliatopubliclycallongovernmenttoselect10regionalcitiesasafocusforrenewedinvestmentto‘powertheeconomy.16CitiessuchasGeelong,Ballarat,Newcastle,Wollongong,ToowoombaandBusseltonweresuggestedascontenders.WiththeexceptionofBusselton,allareregionallocationsearmarkedforpotentialfastrailconnectionsintheAustralianGovernment’sFastRailPlan.17

$500,000

$450,000

$400,000

$350,000

$300,000

$250,000

$200,000

$150,000

$100,000

$50,000

$0

GrossDom

esticProduct(Millions)

3.5%

2.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0%

GreaterSydney Greater Melbourne

SouthEastQueensland

RestofNSW RestofVIC RestofQLD

FY19GrossDomesticProduct FY09-FY19CompoundAnnualGrowthRate

Figure 5: CityversusRegionalGrowthrates11,12,13

10 Fast Rail — A catalyst for growth in the regions

2.2 RecalibratingafterCOVID-19Wecan’ttalkaboutfuturegrowthwithoutreflectingontheemergenceofCOVID-19anditsimpacts.Forthefirsttimeinageneration,oureconomicfutureisuncertain,andapositivepathforwardisfarfromassured.

Thechangesthepandemichasbrought—particularlywhenitcomestoflexibleworking—presentnewopportunitiesforcitiesandregionalcentresthatcouldbeleveragedthroughfastrailinvestments.

Withinthespaceofafewweeks,thenumberofAustraliansworkingfromhomeincreasedtosomewherebetween32%18 and46%.19FromMarchtoJune(andlongerforMelbournians),millionsofAustralianslivedandworkedalmostentirelylocally–nolongercommutingtoaworkplace,travellinginter-stateorflyingoverseasforholidaysandbusiness.Anecdotally,thistimeathomehascausedmanytoquestionhigherdensitycity-orientedlife;living,working,schoolingandsocialisinginregionallocationshasbecomeincreasinglyappealingtomanyAustralians.

Already,businesseshaveandwillcontinuetodevelopmoreappropriatedistributedandphysicalspacestoprovideenhancedexperience,flexibilityandresiliencyfortheirworkforceandoperations.FastrailcouldplayacriticalroleinhelpingthemnavigateaCOVID-19reshapedworldandimprovetheliveabilityandproductivityofourcitiesandregionalcentres.Withbetteraccessibilitytoandfromregionalcentreshelpingtoovercomethetraditionalbarriertoattractingtalenttotheregions,businessescouldstarttorespond,adaptingtothe“livingwithCOVID-19”environment,byseekingalternateworkplacelocationsinregionalcentres,eitherchoosingtorelocateorprovidingasecondoffice.

Overall,thisispotentiallygoodnewsallround,likelytocontributetoimprovingemployeewellbeingandretention,reducingbusinesscostsandcreatingamoreattractiveandcompetitiveenvironmentforbusinessestodriveinvestment.

COVID-19 impacts on rail demandArecentsurveyconductedbyourteamintheUKforNationalRail’sRailDeliveryGroupinvestigatedthelongertermimpactofCOVID-19andchangesinworkingfromhomepatternsonraildemand.Thesurveyfoundthatrailcommutersanticipateamajorshiftintheirworkingfromhomepatternspost-COVID.Prelockdown,railcommutersreportedanaverage0.5daysspentworkingfromhomeeachweek,comparedtoananticipated2.6dayseachweekspentworkingfromhomepost-COVID.Thetechnologyandprofessionalsectorsexpectedtoseethelargestshift.

11 Fast Rail — A catalyst for growth in the regions

Highspeedrail(HSR)wasfirstintroducedinSpainin1992withanewconnectionbetweenSevilleandMadrid.

WithregionalpopulationandeconomicgrowthkeydriversforAustralianfastrailinvestments,it’sprudentforustolookatwherefastrailasbeensuccessfulandunsuccessfulasadriverofregionaldevelopmentandwhy.TheUKhasseenmixedresultsasdiscussedatthebeginningofthepaper.Someregionalcentreshavedevelopedintovibrantplacestoliveandworkasaresultofnewfastrailconnections,whileothershavenot.ThelessonslearnedarebeingactivelyappliedtoHS2tohelpregionalcitiesnewlyconnectedtoLondonretainandgrowtheirownuniqueidentities.

OtherinternationalcasestudiesprovidefurtherinsightsintothepotentialimpactofAustralia’sinvestmentinfastrailconnectionslinkingregionalcentresandcapitalcities.

TheAustralianGovernment’s High Speed Rail Phase 2 Report20providesanexcellentoverviewofhighspeedraildevelopmentglobally,andwenotethekeylessonslearnedfromanumberofthesebelow.

3.1 Spain

AsecondlinelinkingMadridtoBarcelonafollowedsomeyearslater.Thenetworkconnectsintermediateandsmallersizedregionalcitiestothecapital.

Twointermediate-sizedcities,CordobaandZaragoza,havebenefitedthemostfromHSR.Alreadyhometohigh-endcatalystjobsectorsbeforeHSRarrived,thenewconnectionreinforcedtheirroleasprincipalcitieswithintheirrespectivesub-regions.

TheyhavebothbecomeprominentemploymentandamenityhubsoutsideofSevilleandMadridandcommutinghasincreasedinbothdirections.

Smallerregionalcitiesalsobenefitedandexperiencedemploymentgrowth,especiallythosewithin60to90minutesofamajorcitywherecommutinginbothdirectionsincreased.

Inadditiontothepresenceofcatalystjobsectors,thelocationandamenityofstationprecinctsintheregionalcentreswerecritical.Precinctswereincentrallocationssurroundedbydevelopablelandandwereplannedtocaterforhigh-amenity,multi-purposeusers;forexample,office,retail,residential,hotelandconferencefacilities.Theywereservicedbycomplementarytransportthatprovidedconnectivitytosurroundingareasandwerefundedbyamixofpublicandprivateinvestment.

TheSpanishexperienceindicatesthattherearenumerousbenefitstobegainedbycombiningrailinvestmentwithcatalystjobsinuniversities,hospitals,governmentofficesandsupportingtherelocationofbackofficefunctionsoflargercentre-basedbusinesses.21

3What does it take to grow the regions?

12 Fast Rail — A catalyst for growth in the regions

TheTaiwanHigh-SpeedRail(THSR)connectionopenedin2007andlinksTaiwan’stwolargestcities,TaipeiandKaohsiungCity,witheightstationsalongtheway.The

servicereducedafour-hourroadtripto90minutesnon-stoportwohourswithstops.

ThefivemajorstationslocatedoutsideTaipeiandKaohsiungwereestablishedinregionallocationsandearmarkedasfuturenewcities–agovernmentpriorityatthetime.Eachwasassigneditsownuniquecatalystjobspecialisation:internationalbusiness,biomedicaltechnology,entertainmentandshopping,leisureandtourism,andbioscienceresearch.

Whileacombinationofshortconnectiontimes,effectivelanduseandpublicinfrastructureplanning,andflagshipprojectsaccelerateddevelopmentintheseareas,THSRhasinitiallyhadlittleimpactonregionaldevelopment.Thegovernmenthassincedevelopedstrategiesaimedatdrivingpopulationandeconomicgrowthintheseareas.

Taiwan’sexperiencehighlightstheneedtoputdevelopmentstrategiesinplaceforareassurroundingregionalstations,forcollaborationbetweenlocalgovernmentanddevelopersandforgoodconnectionstoothertransportmodes.

France’shighspeedrailservice,TrainàGrandeVitesse,commencedover35yearsagoandconnectsmultipleregions.

MuchlikeSpain,centreswithexistinghigh-endcatalystjobfocusedsectorshavebenefitedthemostfromfasterconnectionswhichhavehelpedspuronregionaldevelopment.Manyhavedevelopedintomajoreconomicandemploymentcentresintheirownright,oftenestablishingthemselvesasabusinessandemploymenthubforasmallnumberofservice-focusedindustriesorsectors.Employeesintheseservice-focusedsectorstravelfrequentlyforworkwhichgeneratescommutinginbothdirections.Incontrast,regionsthatreliedmainlyonmanufacturing,agricultureandminingbenefitedlittlefromthenewconnections.

Thecloseproximityofstationstotheexistingtown,collaborationwithgovernmenttoimplementbroaderplanningpoliciesandtheexistenceofcatalystjobsectorshavehelpeddeliverpositivegrowth.

LikeSpain,France’sexperienceshowsthepresenceofhigh-endservicesectorjobsiskeytodrivingdevelopmentinregionalcentres.

3.3 France

3.2 Taiwan

13 Fast Rail — A catalyst for growth in the regions

Torealisetherightbalance,fastrailplanningshouldconsiderthefollowingfouractions:

´ Creatinghighendopportunitiesaheadoffastrail.

´ Enablingcity-living,regionalworking.

´ Locatingfastrailaspartofabroaderhub.

´ Evolvingprojecteconomicappraisaltoolsandtechniquestofindtherightbalanceforregionalcentres.

Figure 6: Medianweeklyhouseholdincome22

2006 2011 2016 Change 2006-16

Ballarat $839 $998 $1,171 $332

Greater Melbourne $1,079 $1,333 $1,542 $463

Toowoomba $960 $1,095 $1,298 $338

Greater Brisbane $1,111 $1,388 $1,562 $451

Wollongong $903 $1,164 $1,413 $510

Greater Sydney $1,154 $1,447 $1,750 $596

4.1 Creatinghigh-endopportunitiesaheadoffastrailFastrailplanningshouldconsidertheneedtoattract new businesses and new jobs,particularlycatalystjobs,toregionalareas.Catalystjobs(higherwageandentrepreneurialjobs)locatedinregionalcentrescouldhelpmitigatethepotentialdownsidesfastrailconnectionsposetoregionalcentres,namelybecomingdormantfeedersuburbsforcapitalcitiesandthehollowingoutoflocaleconomies.

Historically,inregionalcentresthereisalagbetweengrowthinpopulationandgrowthinjobstosatisfytheexpandingpopulation.Intheabsenceofsuitablejobs,regionalworkersoftenacceptlowerpaidjobsforwhichtheyareoverqualified.

4How can fast rail planning realise the right balance between city commuting & regional centre growth?

14 Fast Rail — A catalyst for growth in the regions

Thisleadstoregionalunder-employment,lowerlabourforceparticipationrates,greaterlabourforcegenderimbalancesandde-skilling.

Themedianhouseholdincomeinregionalcentresishistoricallywellbelowthatinmetropolitancentreanditcontinuestofallfurtherbehind(Figure6).Ifnothingisdonetoaddresstheregionalemploymentlag,thewagegapbetweencityandregionalemployeeswillcontinuetogrow.

Forpopulationsandeconomiestothrive,regionalcentresneedcatalystjobswithhighemploymentmultipliereffects.

Catalystjobsaretypicallywhite-collarjobsthatarespecialisedandserviceawidemarket.Theyhavehighemploymentmultipliereffectsbecauseemployeesinwhite-collarjobsgenerallyhaveahigherdisposableincomeandconsumemore.

Rightnow,thecompositionofthejobsmarketvariesgreatlybetweencityandregionalareas(Figure7).Jobsinregionalcentresaretypicallyfocusedonregionalindustrysupport,

suchasprovidingservicestotheagriculturesectorandinsectorsservicingtheexistingpopulation,suchasretail,schools,healthandgovernmentservices;orinsectorsservicingfuturepopulations,suchasconstruction.

Thesetypesofjobshavelowmultipliereffects.24 Forexample,foreveryjobdirectlycreatedintheagriculturalsector,thereareanestimated0.46productioninducedeffectsjobsand0.46consumptioninducedeffectsjobs.25

Incomparison,jobsintheprofessional,scientific,technical,financialandinsurancesectorsthathavethrivedinourcapitalcitieshavehighemploymentmultipliereffects,generatingalotofsupportingactivity.Forexample,foreveryjobdirectlycreatedinthefinancesector,thereareanestimated0.5productioninducedeffectjobsand1consumptioninducedeffectsjobs.25

Fastrailplanningneedstocloselycollaboratewiththespheresofgovernmentresponsibleforregionaldevelopmentandindustryattractionnow,beforefastrailarrivesintown.

Figure 7: Compositionofthejobmarket-MelbourneversusBallarat23

Agriculture,Forestry&Fishing

Mining

Manufacturing

Electricity,Gas,Water&WasteServices

Construction

WholesaleTrade

RetailTrade

Accommodation&FoodServices

Transport,Postal&Warehousing

InformationMedia&Telecommunications

Financial&InsuranceServices

Rental,Hiring&RealEstateServices

Professional,Scientific&TechnicalServices

Administrative&SupportServices

PublicAdministration&Safety

Education&Training

HealthCare&SocialAssistance

Arts&RecreationServices

OtherServices

0% 6%2% 8%4% 10% 14% 18%12% 16% 20%

CityofBallaratCityofMelbourne

15 Fast Rail — A catalyst for growth in the regions

4.2

Enablingcityliving-regionalworkingToattract people with the requisite skills and experience tofulfilcatalystjobsinregionalcentresrequires:

1. Convenientandcompetitivetransportoptionstoandfromemploymentdestinations.

2. Accesstohighquality,activeand stimulatingamenitiesattheemploymentlocation.

3. Addressingtheperceptionthataregionaljobcanbedetrimentaltoyourprofessionalnetwork.

Convenient&competitivetransportoptionsTakingaregionaljobshouldn’thavetobeamajorlife-changingevent.Faster,moreconvenientandmoreaccessibleconnectionsfromcapitalcitiestoregionalcentresforwork wouldlimitthedisruption.Intime,somepeoplemaymovepermanentlytotheregional centres,butitshouldnotbeanecessity.

Fastrailtraveltimesbetween capitalcitiesandregionalcentresneedto becompetitive,convenientandfacilitatereversecommuting.Thismeansoperatingservicesatconvenientfrequenciesandprovidingconvenientheadways(frequencies).

Rightnow,manyregionalcentreslacka fullyfunctioning,connectedrailnetwork withconvenienttraveltimes.Insome

cases,existingservicesareslow,infrequent andlackcomfortablepassengeramenity. Forexample,inVictoria,Ballarat-basedemployeescantraveltoMelbourneinaround90minutesbytrain,butMelbourne-basedemployeescannoteasilycommutebyrail toBallarat.Thereareonlytwoinbound servicesinthemorningarrivingat7:44am or9:14am,providinglimitedflexibilityforinboundworkers.InQueensland,employeescommutingbetweenBrisbaneandthe nearestregionalinlandcentre,Toowoomba,can’tdirectlyconnectbyrail.

Highquality,activeandstimulatingamenitiesCityoriginstationsrequirerapid,directandmulti-modeaccessibilitytoensuretransfersanddoor-to-doorcommutesremain viable.Atregionaldestinationstations,placesofemploymentneedtobelocatedrelativelyclosetothestationwithsafeandconvenientwalkingpathsavailable.

AddressingperceptionsofpotentiallossofprofessionalnetworksEmployeesconsideringregionalworkingneedtobeabletomoveinandoutofregionaljobopportunitiesseamlessly,withoutseveringprofessionalconnections.Takingaregionaljobneedstobepartofanaturalcareerevolutionandnotbeperceivedashinderingfuturecareerprospects.

Personalinteractionwillremainakeypartofbusiness.OurexperienceduringCOVID-19hasshownthatdigitalengagementwhileworkingfromhome/remotelocationscanonlypartlyreplaceface-to-faceengagement.Toattractcatalystjobs,governmentandindustry/peakbodieswillneedtostrengthenprofessionalnetworksintheregionalcitiesandcentrestosupportcareerdevelopmentandfuturejobopportunitiesforemployees.Forexample,ConsultAustralia’sFutureNetinitiativedeliversindustrynetworkingandprofessionaldevelopmenteventsforyoungprofessionalsandhaslocalcommitteesinanumberofregionalcitiesandcentres.26

Industryattractionshouldtargetsectorswithhighmultipliereffects,suchasprofessionalservicesandfinance,whileretainingimportantfocusonexistingsectorssuchasagricultureandservices.Attractingthesecatalystjobstotheregionwillhelpmitigatetheregionalemploymentlag,diversifyandgrowregionaleconomies,andmakethemmoreresilientandlessvulnerabletodownturns.

16 Fast Rail — A catalyst for growth in the regions

4.3

LocatingfastrailstationsaspartofabroaderhubTomakeregionalcentresattractivetobusinessesthatwillbringcatalystjobs,fastrailplanningshouldconsider transport integration as part of a broader employment precinct.

Akeytake-outfromtheinternationalcasestudiesisintegratingthedesign,developmentanddeliveryoftheregionalstationswithwidereconomicdevelopmentpoliciesandprograms.Globally,regionalcentreshavethrivedwherefastrailstationsareaccessibletothesurroundingcommunityandformpartofabroaderhubwhichofferedarangeofhigh-amenitylandusesandevolvedintoaneconomiccentreovertime.

Regionalstationsshouldbelocatedcentrallyandsurroundedbydevelopableland.Thelanditselfshouldbeplannedtocaterforahigh-amenity,multi-purposeprecinctthatincludeoffices,retail,residential,hotelandpossibleconferencefacilities.Importantly,thedevelopmentshouldbefundedbyamixofpublicandprivateinvestmenttoincentivisecommercialreturnsandmaximisesuccess.

Theend-to-endjourneyisalsoimportant.Fastrailstationslocatedwithinwalkingdistanceofregionalprecinctswithahighlevelofamenitywillbeessentialtofacilitatingjobcreationanddemandforreversecommuting.Forexample,inBallarat,ToowoombaandWollongong,whicharealreadyhometohigh-end,servicefocusedjobsintheeducationsector,regional

stationscouldbelocatedincloseproximitytoexistingmajorregionaluniversitycampuses,suchasFederationUniversityAustralia,UniversityofSouthernQueenslandandUniversityofWollongongrespectively.

4.4

EvolvingprojecteconomicappraisaltoolsandtechniquestofindtherightbalanceforregionalcentresTofullyunlockeconomicpotentialinregionalcentres,fastrailprojectsneedtocarefullyconsidercateringforreversecommuters.Whilethiswouldenhancethetotaleconomicupliftintheregion,itwouldnotnecessarilyenhancetheeconomicviabilityoftheprojectitself.Infact,byanytraditionalmeasure,costswouldbehigher.Reversecommutingwouldrequiremoreupfrontcapitalforinfrastructureandrollingstock,andoperatingexpenditureandmaintenancecostswouldalsobehigher.

However,theeconomicappraisaloffastrailinvestmentsishighlylikelytobeenhancedifweassess the full value of the regional benefits delivered(Figure8).Forexample,thiscanbedonebyincorporatingthedirectandindirecteconomicdevelopmentbenefitsofgrowinghighendemployment,supportedinpartbyreversecommuting,intothevalueequation.

InAustralia,we’vebeenslowtoadvanceappraisaltechniquestocapturetheseimpacts.InfrastructureAustraliaencouragesproject

17 Fast Rail — A catalyst for growth in the regions

Thereareagrowingnumberoftoolsandtechniquesdesignedtohelpprojectsdefineandmeasurethebroadersocialvalueoftheirinvestments.

Ourrecentpaper,Before and Beyond the Build: A Blueprint for Generating Social Value through Infrastructure Investments,exploredthistopicindetail.

Ifwe’reexpandingourappraisalofinfrastructureinvestmentstodemonstratethetotalvalueoffastrailandtheeconomicupliftthatreversecommutingcouldprovidetoregionalcentres,wemustbepreparedtoinvestinthedata,toolsandmethodologiesneededtoforecastandcapturewiderimpacts.

Onesuchtoolisamodelthatforecaststheexpectedchangeinlanduseresultingfromnewtransportinfrastructure.LandUseandTransportInteraction(LUTI)modelsdatebacktothe1960’s.Variousmodelsexistandevenmoreareindevelopment,butthereiscurrentlynouniformlyacceptedapproach.Nowisthetimeforthemtobecomemainstreamandtransparent.

Transportprojectappraisalhasbeensuccessfulinthepastindevelopingnationalapproachessothatallprojectscanbeassessedonalevelplayingfield.ThisapproachneedstobemaintainedforLUTIdevelopmentandapplication.ThetransportinfrastructuresectormustdecidewhatitwantstoseeinaLUTImodeltomakesureitincludestherightmetricsandiseffectiveincapturingtheregionalimpactsoffastrail.

teamstoreportonwidereconomicbenefits,buttherearecurrentlynoguidelinesonhowtodothisinanappropriateandconsistentmanner.Movingforward,wemustbeabletodemonstratethetotalvalueofinvestmentbeyondthenarrowfocusofuserbenefits.

Ourthinkingmustalsomovebeyondtraditionaleconomicappraisalssothatwecanbegintocapturethesocialvaluecreatedbythistypeofinvestment.Socialvaluemeasuresthepositiveimpactofprojectsonregions,communitiesandindividualsthatcannotbedefinedbyconventionaleconomicmeasures;forexample,theconfidencepeoplegainwhensecuringacatalyststylejobormoresecureemployment,orbeingabletoliveclosetofamilyandfriends.

Figure 8: Assessingfullvalue

City shaping impact

Economic value

Land use outcomes

Social value

18 Fast Rail — A catalyst for growth in the regions

Connectingregionalcentrestocapitalcitieswithfastrailcouldbeagamechangerforregionaleconomies.Totrulythrive,regionalcentresmuststrikethebalancebetweenbeingacommutersettlementandavibrantplacetoliveandworkintheirownright.Toachievethis,fastrailplanningshouldconsiderhowimprovedrailconnectionscanfacilitatestrong,resilientandthrivingregionalcentres.

Tofacilitatethis,we’veidentifiedfourkeyplanningconsiderationsforfastrailprojects:

1.

2.

3.

4.Attractinghigh-end,catalystjobs,withhighermultipliereffectswillreducetheemploymentlaganddriveeconomicdevelopmentinregionalcentres.Fastrailplanningshouldcollaboratewithalllevelsofgovernmenttoensuretherightpoliciesandinitiativesareinplacetoattractnewindustriesandbusinessestoregionalcentresnow,beforefastrailarrives.

Takingaregionaljobneedstobenormalisedaspartofanaturalcareerprogression,notamajorlifechangingeventforemployees.Fastrailconnectionsshouldconsidercateringforbothregionalandcity-livingemployeesandfacilitatecommutinginbothdirections.

Locationwillinfluencethepotentialvalueofnewstationprecinctstoregionaleconomies.Fastrailplanningshouldconsidertransportintegrationaspartofabroaderemploymentprecinct.Stationprecinctsarebestlocatedclosetoexistingregionalemploymentprecinctsand/orbesurroundedbydevelopableland.Surroundinglandshouldbeplannedforarangeofhigh-amenityusestoencouragenewregionaleconomichubstobuildupovertime.

Projecteconomicappraisaltoolsandtechniquesmustcapturethefullvalueofnewfastrailconnectionstoregionalcentres.Fastrailplanningshouldrecognisethecity-shapingimpactsofmajortransportprojects,thebroader‘value’generatedfromtheseprojects—includingthesocialvaluegenerated—andinvestinthedata,toolsandmethodologiesneededtoforecastandcapturewiderimpacts,suchastheLUTImodel.

5Conclusion

ThereareofcourseothermajorchallengesandopportunitiesforfastrailinAustralia.Eachcorridorwillbeamajorprogramofworkthatrequirescarefulthoughtondesign,procurementapproachandriskmanagementthroughdelivery.

Onechallengethatwehavebeenthinkingaboutistheengineeringdesignandalignmentoffastrailroutesandhowwecanovercometopographicalandgeologicalchallengestoprovidestraighterandflatteralignmentssothatfastrailcanoperateatoptimalspeedsbetweenregionalcentresandcapitalcities.Straighter,flatteralignmentspresentsignificantconfigurationchallengestooptimisecostandbenefitfromcitycentreaccess.Thesechallengeswillbeexploredinasubsequenttechnicaldiscussionpaper.

Where to next

20 Fast Rail — A catalyst for growth in the regions

1. CityFactsheets–MiltonKeynes.(2020).RetrievedfromCentreforCitieswebsite:http://centreforcities.org/city/milton-keynes

2. Steer.(2019).TheCambridgeshireandPeterboroughLocalTransportPlan:EvidenceBase.RetrievedfromCambridgeshireandPeterboroughCombinedAuthoritywebsite:https://cambridgeshirepeterborough-ca.gov.uk/assets/Transport/20190520-CPCA-LTP-EvidenceBase-Annex-v3.0.pdf

3. Courea,E.(2018).NorthernMPstellLabour:changeyourmindonHS2.RetrievedfromTheGuardianwebsite:https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/oct/27/northern-mps-tell-labour-change-your-mind-on-hs2

4. CreatedbyJacobsbasedonroutedatafromGoogleMaps

5. Topham,G.(2013).Northerncitiesawaitannouncementonhigh-speedrailrouteandstation.RetrievedfromTheGuardianwebsite:https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2013/jan/27/northern-cities-high-speed-rail-hs2

6. TheAustralianGovernment.(2019).AplanforAustralia’sfuturepopulation.RetrievedfromTheHonAlanTudgeMPMinisterforPopulation,CitiesandUrbanInfrastructurewebsite: https://minister.infrastructure.gov.au/tudge/media-release/plan-australias-future-population

7. Projects(n.d.).RetrievedfromAustralianGovernmentNationalFastRailAgencywebsite:https://www.nfra.gov.au/projects

8. National,stateandterritorypopulation-Table1 PopulationChange,Summary-Australia.(2020).RetrievedfromAustralianBureauofStatisticsWebsite:https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national-state-and-territory-population/mar-2020/310101.xls

9. RegionalPopulation:2018-19.(2020).RetrievedfromAustralianBureauofStatisticswebsite:https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-population/2018-19

10. UrbanTransportCrowding&Congestion.(2019).RetrievedfromInfrastructureAustraliawebsite:https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/publications/urban-transport-crowding-and-congestion

11. CityofSydneyEconomicProfile:GrossProduct.(n.d).Retrievedfromeconomy.idwebsite:https://economy.id.com.au/sydney/gross-product

12. CityofMonash:GrossProduct.(n.d.).Retrievedfromeconomy.idwebsite:https://economy.id.com.au/monash/gross-product

13. GoldCoastCity:GrossProduct.(n.d.).Retrievedfromeconomy.idwebsite:https://economy.id.com.au/gold-coast/gross-product

14. Choy,D.L.,Sutherland,C.,Gleeson,B.,Dodson,J.&Sipe,N.(2008).ChangeandContinuityinPeri-UrbanFeatures&SustainableDevelopment.RetrievedfromParliamentofVictoriawebsite:https://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/images/stories/committees/edic/greenfields_mineral_exploration/subs/47_-_Moorabool_Environment_Group_-_Attachment_2.pdf

15. AustralianNationalAccounts:NationalIncome,ExpenditureandProduct.(2020).RetrievedfromAustralianBureauofStatisticswebsite:https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/national-accounts/australian-national-accounts-national-income-expenditure-and-product/latest-release

16. Bagshaw,E.(2019).Give10regionaltowns‘prioritystatus’topowertheeconomy:BusinessCouncil.RetrievedfromTheAgewebsite:https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/give-10-regional-towns-priority-status-to-power-the-economy-business-council-20191125-p53dve.html

17. FasterRailPlan.(2019).RetrievedfromNationalFasterRailAgencywebsite:https://www.nfra.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/faster_rail_plan.pdf

18. NearlyathirdofAustralianworkershavebeen‘#WFH’.(2020).RetrievedfromRoyMorganwebsite:http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8451-roy-morgan-working-from-home-june-2020-202006290638

19. HouseholdImpactsofCOVID-19Survey-29April-4 May2020.(2020).RetrievedfromAustralianBureauofStatisticswebsite:https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/people-and-communities/household-impacts-covid-19-survey/29-apr-4-may-2020#job-situation-and-working-from-home-arrangements

20. TheHighSpeedRailStudyPhase2Report.(2013).RetrievedfromAustralianGovernmentDepartmentofInfrastructureandTransportwebsite:https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/rail/publications/high-speed-rail-study-reports/files/HSR_Phase_2-Main_Report_Low_Res.pdf

21. Urena,J.M.,Menerault,P.&Garmendia,M.(2009).TheHSRchallengeforbigintermediatecities–anational,regionalandlocalperspective.Cities26(5):266-279

22. ABS,HistoricalCensusData.https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/Home/2016%20Historical%20Census%20Data

23. 2016CensusCommunityProfiles-Ballarat&Melbourne.(n.d.).RetrievedfromAustralianBureauofStatisticswebsite:https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/censushome.nsf/home/communityprofiles?opendocument&navpos=230

24. Weacknowledgethatdataonemploymentmultipliereffectsshouldbeusedwithcaution.Thefigurescitedinthispaperareintendedtohighlightthedifferencesbetweenproductionandinducedeffect.Weencouragefurtherresearchinthisarea.

25. McLennan,W.(1995).5246.0-InformationPaper:AustralianNationalAccounts:IntroductiontoInput-OutputMultipliers.RetrievedfromAustralianBureauofStatisticswebsite:https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/5246.01989-90?OpenDocument

26. FutureNet(n.d.)RetrievedfromConsultAustraliawebsite:https://www.consultaustralia.com.au/home/develop-your-career/futurenet

References

Wedeliverimpactfulglobalsolutionstocreateamoreconnected,sustainableworld —fromintelligencetoinfrastructure,cybersecuritytospaceexploration.Our55,000employeesacross40countriesworkeveryday,challengingtheexpectationsoftodaytoreinventthewaywe’llalllivetomorrow.

Creating a more connected, sustainable world

www.jacobs.com

22 Fast Rail — A catalyst for growth in the regions

jacobs.com

Published November2020. ©Copyright2020,Jacobs.Allrightsreserved.

Forinquiriesaboutthispaperpleasecontact:

ASIA-PACIFIC

Nayyar EhsanSeniorDirector–Marketing,Brand&Communications Nayyar.Ehsan@jacobs.com