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cbiOptions for increasing the level of

mitigation ambitions in the short term

Spencer Thomas, Ph.D Ambassador, Special Envoy for MEAsGrenada

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for sustained capacity building in support of international climate change negotiations

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cbiArgument

• Well below 1.5 degrees Celcius: We can do it.

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Impact of 1m SLRUNDP

• 1300 sq km Caribbean

• Coastal infrastructure, transport, communication

• 5 % of Bahamas

• 21 of 64 airports

• 35 of 44 ports

• 149 multi million dollar resorts

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Science

• Rising emission levels

• Rising sea levels: 1-2 m 2100

• Rising temperatures: 4-5 degree pathway– 2 degrees?

• Cost of inaction and delay

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Emissions gap

• Real and significant

• 13-18% : 1990 levels

• LULUCF credits: 10 - 15 %

• Surplus AAUs: 5-10 %

• Both : 1-7%

• Science

• AOSIS: 45% by 2020 with 2015 peaking 04/21/23 5

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Achievable? Yes

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2C vs 1.5C in 2020

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SLR not stabilized at 2 degRohmstorf (2007): Church and White (2011)

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cbiCoral reefs

Silverman et al (2009)

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Ocean acidification Lowe et al (2010)

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Annex 1 Reductions: not enough

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• Economic costs for higher ambition are feasible – OECD, IEA, IIASA estimates

• Costs of inaction and delay are formidable

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Short term responses

• Increased levels of ambitions and actions

• Cap LULUCF credits

• Remove exceptions

• No carryover of surplus AAUs

• The Kyoto protocol

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• Renewable energy options are available and feasible

• Identify and support EE and RE mitigation potential

• Support expedited uptake of renewables

• Overcome barriers to deployment

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cbiSIDSDOCK

• Transformation of the energy sector

• Technology and finance mechanism for low carbon development

• By 2030, 50% power needs by renewables

• 30% cut in importation of fossil fuels

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Unhelpful

• Agenda fights

• Bad faith negotiations

• Delays

• Conditionalties

• Unilateralism

• Focus on voluntarism

• Pledge and review 04/21/23 16

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cbiFurther Needs

• Global leadership

• Cost effective global mitigation potential

• Enhanced access to international ETS under KP

• Rio plus 20: new model for development

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