Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Global and Regional Labour Market Information & Employment
Trends and Issues
Lawrence Jeff Johnson
Chief, Employment TrendsInternational Labour Organisation
Geneva Switzerland
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Global employment trends
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Tot
al e
mpl
oyed
(bi
llions
)
50.0%
52.0%
54.0%
56.0%
58.0%
60.0%
62.0%
64.0%
66.0%
68.0%
70.0%
Em
ployment-to-population ratio
Total employed (billions)
Employment-to-population ratio
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Global Unemployment trends
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
To
tal u
ne
mp
loye
d (
mill
ion
s)
5.7%
5.8%
5.9%
6.0%
6.1%
6.2%
6.3%
6.4%
6.5%
6.6%
6.7%
Un
em
plo
yme
nt ra
te
Total unemployed (millions)
Unemployment rate
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Unemployment Rates: by region, 2005
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
World DevelopedEconomies
andEuropean
Union
Central andEasternEurope
(non-EU)and CIS
East Asia South EastAsia and
the P acific
South Asia LatinAmericaand the
Caribbean
Middle Eastand North
Africa
Sub-SaharanAfrica
%
Youth Female Male Total
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
The share of working poor in total employment, 1995-2005
0
500'000
1'000'000
1'500'000
2'000'000
2'500'000
3'000'000
3'500'000
4'000'000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Wor
kers
(in
mill
ions
)
Workers living on more than US$2 per dayUS $2 Working Poor ('000s)US$1 Working Poor ('000s)
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
US$1 working poverty around the world(global estimate 520 million in 2005)
East Asia20%
South East Asia and the Pacific
6%
South Asia38%
Latin America and the Caribbean
5%
Central and Eastern Europe
(non-EU) and CIS1%
Sub-Saharan Africa29%
Middle East and North Africa
1%
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
2 dollar pie
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Share of US$1 working poor, 1990-2015
Sub-Saharan Africa
27.9
55.854.055.8
0
20
40
60
80
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Transition Economies
0.9
5.2
1.72.1
0
3
6
9
12
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
East Asia
17.9
35.9
6.5
17.0
0
10
20
30
40
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
South-east Asia
9.9
19.9
7.3
11.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
South Asia
26.5
53.0
19.3
38.1
0
20
40
60
80
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Middle East and North Africa
1.9
2.3
3.9
2.9
0
1
2
3
4
5
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Latin America and the Caribbean
8.0
16.1
11.5
13.5
0
5
10
15
20
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Rate of progress needed to halveworking povertyProgress to date and projection
Projected progress (2003-2015)
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Share of US$2 working poor, 1990-2015
Rate of progress needed to halveworking poverty
Progress to date and projection
Projected progress (2003-2015)
Latin America and the Caribbean
19.7
39.3
28.833.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Sub-Saharan Africa
44.5
87.689.1 89.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Transition Economies
2.5
9.85.0
23.6
0
10
20
30
40
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
East Asia
39.5
25.8
79.1
49.2
0
20
40
60
80
100
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
South-east Asia
34.6
69.1
47.758.8
0
20
40
60
80
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
South Asia
46.6
77.4
93.187.5
0
20
40
60
80
100
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Middle East and North Africa
16.9
33.9
24.9
30.4
0
6
12
18
24
30
36
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
430 million new entrants into the global labour force (2005-2015)
Sub-Saharan Africa19%
Central and Eastern Europe
(non-EU) and CIS1%
East Asia11%
South East Asia and the Pacific
13%
South Asia31%
Developed Economies and European Union
3%
Middle East and North Africa
10%
Latin America and the Caribbean
12%
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Starting Point
• In today’s world of widening inequality, differences in productivity emerge as an important policy factor towards creating the conditions for decent work and poverty reduction.
• The promotion of decent and productive work should be the central aim of economic development
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Policy Issues
• How to ensure that we get the right balance between productivity growth and job creation for each country?
• What are the most important rural development policies for improving productivity, generating decent employment and reducing poverty?
• How to balance flexibility and security in the labour market to promote economy-wide productivity and growth?
• How to overcome the “productivity divide” between large and small scale business activities?
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Increased Productivity
Increased Real Wages
Poverty Alleviation
Productivity & Output Growth
Decent Work & Employment
Growth
Poverty Alleviation
Sustainable & Expanding Growth
Increased Earnings
Increased Well-Being & Diminished Inequality
Increased Investments & Demand
IncreasedReal Earnings & Social Benefits
Technological Improvements
Increased Demand, Increased Output
Increased Demand & Well-Being
Increased Technological Change
Virtuous Spiral
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
KKey
IIndicators of the Labour
MMarket 2 0 0 52 0 0 5
K I L MK I L M
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Questions:
What types of economic activities are people engaged in?
What is the size and composition of the labour force?
How many hours do people work and how much do they earn for this work?
How many people are without work and looking for work?
What types of inequalities exist, for example in terms of earnings and employment situation?
Are earnings keeping pace with the cost of living?
How are youth and women faring in the labour market?
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
When developing indicators, one must strike a balance between:
Maximize scope of coverage, i.e., provide the greatest number of data points for the greatest number of countries
Harmonize the indicators across countries and time (same type of sources, sampling procedures, methodologies and definitions)
Coverage Comparability
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
• Informal sector employment
• Hours of work
• Part-time workers
• Employment by sector
• Status in employment
• Employment-to-population ratio
• Labour force participation rate
Key Indicators of the Labour Market
Educational attainment and illiteracy
Inactivity rate
Time-related underemployment
Unemployment by educational attainment
• Long-term unemployment
• Youth unemployment
• Unemployment
Poverty and income distribution
Labour market flows
Productivity and unit labour cost
Hourly compensation costs
Occupational wages rates & earnings
Real manufacturing wage indices
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
60
70
80
90
100
0 5'000 10'000 15'000 20'000 25'000
GDP per capita at PPP
Ma
le l
ab
ou
r fo
rce
pa
rtic
ipa
tio
n
rate
(p
erce
nta
ges
)
Note: The middle curve is a smooth version of the scatter plot, obtained by cubic splines.
Labour force participation rates and GDP per capita at PPP, 1990
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
GDP per capita at PPP
Fem
ale
la
bo
ur
forc
e p
art
icip
ati
on
rate
(p
erce
nta
ges
)
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 5 10 15 20 25Males (% of total employment)
Fem
ales
(% o
f tot
al e
mpl
oym
ent)
F - Construction J - Financial intermediation
K - Real estate, renting and business activities M - Education
Employment by 1-digit sector level (ISIC 3), latest years
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Annual number of hours worked per personAnnual number of hours worked per person
Annual Hours WorkedLatest Year
2,011 to 2,480 (7)1,891 to 2,010 (9)1,821 to 1,890 (8)1,691 to 1,820 (10)1,360 to 1,690 (10)
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Growth in value added per worker, total economy (1993-latest year)
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Employment Trends Research
Global Employment TrendsSpecial Reports for Youth & Women
WER KILM
Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends
Labor Market Information & Employment Trends
Lawrence Jeff Johnson
Chief, Employment TrendsInternational Labour Organisation
Geneva Switzerland
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