Economic and Social Cost of Crime
Application in Criminal Careers
Crime and Justice User DayJoe Perman: Assistant Economist, Scottish Government
Purpose
• What data we use
• What we use the cost estimates for– Total costs – useful to know??– Value for money of interventions
• e.g Who should we target with limited resources
• What else could we be doing?
Data sources
• Economic and Social Costs of Crime
• Scottish Crime and Justice Survey
• Reconviction Rates in Scotland
• Police Recorded and Cleared Up Crime
• Criminal Proceedings in Scottish Courts
Anticipation
Consequence
Response
SecurityInsurance
Property, lost output, health services,
emotional and physical impact
Criminal Justice System(courts, police, prisons, etc)
Economic and Social Costs of Crime
Unit Costs of Crime
£24,719
£8,403 £6,700 £4,774 £3,770 £2,072 £999 £731 £127
£28,726
£88,731
£0
£10,000
£20,000
£30,000
£40,000
£50,000
£60,000
£70,000
£80,000
£90,000
£100,000
Offence
Co
st p
er o
ffen
ce
Multipliers
• We may have data on the number of police recorded crime or convictions – but we are interested in the actual incidence of crime
• i.e. including those which are not reported or recorded for various reasons
CONVICTION RATE
ACTUAL CRIME RATE
POLICE RECORDED CRIME RATE
CLEAR-UP RATE
2
4
9
1
1
34
388
SHOPLIFTING
SERIOUS ASSAULT
How we get there
Charges proved from Criminal Proceedings
Police clear up rate
Police recorded crimes
Scottish Crime and Justice Survey (and business surveys, research)
Table of multipliers and costsCrime/offence group Scotland crime/Offence name Conviction Cleared up Recorded Actual incidence Unit cost (£2010/11)
Non-sexual crimes of violence
Murder 1 1 1 1 £ 1,736,998
Serious assault 1 2 3 11 £ 25,504
Robbery and assault with intent to rob 1 3 5 6 £ 8,670
Other non-sexual crimes of violence 1 5 6 14 £ 9,591
Crimes of indecency
Rape & attempted rape 1 17 31 176 £ 83,487
Indecent assault etc 1 7 12 116 £ 31,111
Other crimes of indecency 1 3 5 5 £ 2,137
Crimes of dishonesty
Housebreaking 1 4 16 36 £ 3,891
Theft by OLP 1 5 20 63 £ 755
Theft by from a motor vehicle (OLP) 1 3 20 70 £ 1,022
Theft of a motor vehicle & contents including taking & driving 1 8 18 19 £ 4,927
Theft by shoplifting 1 3 4 61 £ 131
Other theft 1 5 23 70 £ 755
Other crimes of dishonesty 1 3 4 13 £ 755
Fire-raising, vandalism etc
Fire-raising 1 5 25 148 £ 1,031
Vandalism, etc 1 6 23 138 £ 1,031
Miscellaneous offences
Minor assault 1 4 5 13 £ 6,913
Minor assault of an emergency worker 1 4 5 13 £ 1,714
Breach of the peace 1 5 5 5 £ 2,137
Drunkenness 1 36 36 36 £ 2,137
Other miscellaneous offences 1 13 14 14 £ 2,137
Other crimes
Crimes against public justice 1 3 3 3 £ 2,137
Handling an offensive weapon 1 2 3 3 £ 2,137
Drugs 1 5 5 5 £ 2,137
Other crimes 1 1 1 1 £ 2,137
An assumption too far?
• Multipliers fine at population level analysis, but what about small samples?
• Individuals? One conviction of housebreaking means we guess that person has actually broke into 9
• Some people better at not getting caught?
Applications
• Total Cost of Crime
• Value for Money of Criminal Interventions
• Reducing Reoffending Project
• Presumption against short term sentences
• Criminal careers– Males, females, under/over 21– Persistent offenders vs long term prisoners
Total costs - Tree plotMinor assault (£1,786m) Breach of the
peace (£186m)
Other miscellaneous (£140m)
Indecent assault etc (£504m) Rape and attempted rape (£400m)
Oth
er i
ndec
ency
(£2
2m)
Shoplifting (£402m) Housebreaking (£167m)
Theft (£127m)
Vehicle crime (£86m)
Other dishonesty (£39m)
Serious assault (£340m)
Murder (£148m)
Other violent crime (£84m)
Robbery and assault (£59m)
Vandalism (£298m)
Others (£25m)Drugs (£87m)
Other crimes (£79m)
Miscellaneous offences
Crimes of indecency
Crimes of dishonesty
Crimes of violence
Other crimes
Vandalism and fire-raising
Breakdown of the costs of crimeInsurance
Administration1%
Defensive Expendiutre
5%
Physical and Emotional Impact
34%
Net value of property
13%
Lost Output6%
Health Services 2%
CJS Costs39%
Value for money of Criminal Justice Interventions
• Ex-Post – evaluating interventions • Ex-Ante – using historical offending data
to look at “what if” scenarios
• Both aimed at identifying the value for money in policies aimed at reducing reoffending based on the costs of crime and therefore the potential savings from reducing it
Offences before/after
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Non-sexualcrimes ofviolence
Crimes ofindecency
Crimes ofdishonesty
Fire-raising,vandalism etc
Miscellaneousoffences
Other crimes
Offence category
Before
After
Decrease from 2,800 to 1,900 --> 32% fall
Persistent Offenders Project
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
-1200 -800 -400 0 400 800 1200
Days from POP intervention
Off
en
ces
pe
r d
ay p
er o
ffen
der
Persistent Offenders Project –
Pre and post intervention crime rates
Persistent Offenders Project - Total Costs
Cost of crime
Before After Savings
£30 million £19 million £11 million
Project Cost = £1million over the 3 years
NET BENEFITS of £10 million
illustrative!!
• we are not implying causality
• use the estimates to illustrate the potential savings available
• Magnitudes, rather than pounds and pence
• Should be used in conjunction with other quantitative and qualitative data
Presumption against short sentences
• Don’t know the impact on reoffending by moving someone from custodial sentence to community sentence– Differing characteristics etc
• Use breakeven analysis to find the reducing in offending needed to balance out the increased costs
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Number of years since index conviction/release from custody
Perce
nt rec
onvic
ted
Custody (3 months or less) Community Service Order
Probation Order Supervised Attendance Order
Community Payback Order (modelled)
Reconviction rate over time
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Number of years since index conviction/release from custody
Annu
al av
erag
e rec
onvic
tions
Custody (3 months or less) Community Service Order
Probation Order Supervised Attendance Order
Community Payback Order (modelled)
Average annual number of reconvictions
Reoffending Rates/Frequencies
Custodial Cohort Costs
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Year
£M
illio
n
1%£6m
Criminal Careers
• Follow cohort over 10 years using unit level conviction data
• Split by age and gender to start with
• Only looking at the ‘average’ across each cohort, will be differing distinct ‘types’ within each groups
Criminal Careers
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
year
freq
uen
cy o
f co
nvi
ctio
ns
Average Male Female Under 21 Over 21
Frequency of convictions
£0
£10,000
£20,000
£30,000
£40,000
£50,000
£60,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10year
aver
age
cost
per
off
end
er
Average Male Female Under 21 Over 21
Cost of Reoffending
£0
£100
£200
£300
£400
£500
£600
£700
£800
£900
£1,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Avera
geyear
aver
age
cost
per
off
ence
Female Male Under 21 Over 21
Average cost per offence
Persistent versus long term
• Where should we focus limited resources
• The ‘serious’, high tariff long term prisoners are an easy target
• But what about the harder segment, low tariff, persistent offenders?
0.000
0.200
0.400
0.600
0.800
1.000
1.200
1.400
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
year
fre
qu
en
cy
(a
ve
rag
e n
um
be
r o
f c
on
vic
tio
ns
pe
r o
ffe
nd
er)
3 previous
short sentence
long term
Frequency of convictions
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
year
£ (a
vera
ge
cost
per
off
end
er)
3 previous
short sentence
long term
Average cost per offender
Cost as a proxy for seriousness
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
3 previous short sentence long term
Offender type
Per
cen
tag
e o
f cr
imes
Other Total
Damage Total
Dishonesty Total
Sexual Total
Violence Total
Average cost per offender
Average per offender
Number in segment
Prolific (3 previous)
£ 180,000 20,365
Very short term (< 6 months)
£ 277,000 4,139
Long term (> 4 years)
£ 147,000 401
Size does matter?
Violence
Dishonesty
Damage
Other
Sexual
Prolific (3+ previous)£3.9 billion
Very short termers£1.1 billion
Long termers£59 million
What next??
• Defining the segments?
• Where else could you see cost estimates being used?
• ???
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