Data • Insights • Strategy
www.GrayAssociates.com
Data • Insights • Strategy
www.GrayAssociates.com
Demand For Higher Education Programs
Results through July 2018
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About Today’s Presenters
Bob AtkinsCEO
Bob Atkins - Bob led Gray’s entry into the education industry and the development of Gray’s proprietary industry databases and service offerings. He has worked with most of Gray’s education clients, consulting with CEOs and CMOs on business strategy, pricing, location selection, and program strategy.
Linda OsterlundAcademic Dean
Linda Osterlund - Dr. Linda Osterlund is currently the Academic Dean for Rueckert-Hartman College for Health Professions at Regis University. In her previous role as Vice Provost for Resource Planning, she facilitated the Program Sustainability Project for Regis University in 2017. Linda is a Licensed Marriage and Family Therapist, with a PhD in Counselor Education and Supervision, and minor in Applied Statistics and Research Methods.
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Who Is Gray?
Program and MarketEvaluation Data
Employment
Placement Rates
Student Demand
DemographicsWages
Programs Price ProjectsPlace§ Program Evaluation System§ Program profiles§ Program location
§ Market selection§ Location selection§ Campus consolidation
§ Price elasticity§ Price positioning§ Price optimization
§ Business strategy § Strategy implementation§ Complex analytics
Advanced AnalyticsPredictive Models
Geo-Analytics
Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders
Competition
Employer Requirements
Program Economics
New
4Confidential
§ Inquiries- National- Online & On-Campus- Program, Degree, & City
§ Google Search Trends- Programs- Brands- Growth and Decline
§ Program Sustainability- Gray Perspective
§ Regis Case Study on Program Sustainability
Confidential 5
§ We started tracking Inquiries in 2012 and Google search volumes in September 2016.§ In our webinars, we share data for the last three years.
Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)
Gray has tracked demand for several years.
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2016 2017 2018
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
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§ May volume rose 4% year-over-year.§ June volume rose 1% year-over-year.§ July volume rose 3% year-over-year.
Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)
Inquiry volumes have increased year-over-year for the past 4 months.
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National InquiriesAll Programs and Award Levels 2016 2017 2018
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
+ 3%
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§ Conversions for May and June are on track to beat 2017.
Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)
For April 2018 inquiries, total conversions rose 2% year-over-year.
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Total Inquiry ConversionsAll Programs and Award Levels
2016 2017 2018
1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry is received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries are received.
Immature Months1
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
+2% YoY
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§ Month over month, July prices continued to fall from May’s high of $49.47 to $46.31.§ Year-over-year prices rose 2.4%, but are at their lowest level since November 2017.
Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry
For 16 of the past 17 months, the average price per inquiry has risen year-over-year.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2016 $45.1 $45.9 $44.7 $44.8 $42.4 $44.9 $44.3 $44.5 $45.1 $44.7 $44.8 $45.42017 $45.3 $45.2 $45.5 $45.3 $45.5 $45.7 $45.2 $44.5 $45.0 $46.0 $45.9 $46.72018 $47.1 46.56 46.33 47.35 49.47 48.85 46.31 - - - - -
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
$55
Average Price per Inquiry for PPIAll Programs and Award Levels
+2.4% YoY
Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
9Confidential
§ Inquiries- National- Online & On-Campus- Program, Degree, & City
§ Google Search Trends- Programs- Brands- Growth and Decline
§ Program Sustainability- Gray Perspective
§ Regis Case Study on Program Sustainability
Confidential 10
Inquiries for Online Programs
Inquiries for online programs grew 11% year-over-year in July.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiries
Inquiries for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels 2016 2017 2018
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
+11%
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Inquiries for On-Campus Programs
In July, inquiries for on-campus programs dropped 11% year-over-year.
050,000
100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiries
Inquiries for On-Campus ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels
2016 2017 2018
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
-11% YoY
12Confidential
§ Inquiries- National- Online & On-Campus- Program, Degree, & City
§ Google Search Trends- Programs- Brands- Growth and Decline
§ Program Sustainability- Gray Perspective
§ Regis Case Study on Program Sustainability
Confidential 13
The Big 5 Programs: July Growth Year-over-Year
After growing in May and June, Medical Assistant fell 24% year-over-year in July.
15%
8%
-1%
-24%
-1%
-30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5%
10% 15% 20%
Healthcare Administration
Criminal Justice Registered Nursing Medical Assistant Business Administration
Five Largest Programs Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in July Inquiries
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
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The Fast 5 Programs:The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth
Only Public Administration grew above 50% year-over-year in July.
70%
39%
22% 20% 16%
0%
50%
100%
Public Administration
Healthcare Administration
Web/Digital Design Graphic Design Medical Insurance Coding
The Fast 5 ProgramsYear-over-Year Change in July Inquiries
§ In June 2018, all of the Fast 5 grew by at least 50%.
1. Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
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§ Overall, higher level degrees are outperforming.
Inquiry Volumes by Degree: Year-Over-Year Change
Interest in certificates appears to be highly volatile.
2%
5%
16%
21%
-41%
56%
-4%
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Associate's degree
Bachelor's degree
Master's degree
Doctor's degree
Post-master's certificate
Postbaccalaureate certificate
Undergraduate certificate
Change in InquiriesJuly YoY
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
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Online Inquiries: Year-over-Year Inquires by State
Year-over-year, July inquiries grew fastest in Wisconsin, North Dakota, Oregon, New Mexico, Arkansas, and Kansas.
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
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Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities
In July 2018, inquiries increased in all of The Big 5 Cities.
§ Los Angeles increased the most: 25%.
-14%
-22%
-15%
-8%
-21%
8% 13%
4%
25% 22%
-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5%
10% 15% 20% 25%
Philadelphia, PA Chicago, IL New York, NY Los Angeles, CA Houston, TX
Five Cities With the Most Inquiries Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in July Inquiries
2017 YoY % Change 2018 YoY % Change
Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
18Confidential
§ Inquiries- National- Online & On-Campus- Program, Degree, & City
§ Google Search Trends- Programs- Brands- Growth and Decline
§ Program Sustainability- Gray Perspective
§ Regis Case Study on Program Sustainability
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§ Gray tracks search volume for the 200 largest higher education programs. - In 2016, these programs produced 67% of all completions.- We track approximately 25 keywords for each program.
Google Search Trends: Programs
After eight months of year-over-year declines, Gray’s Google search index rose 1% in July.
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Google Searches200 Largest Programs* 2016 2017 2018
*Google Searches for 25 keywords for each of the 200 largest programs based on IPEDS completions
+1%
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§ Gray tracks search volume for a sample of 75 higher-education brands.§ Through July 2018, brand searches have fallen an average of 5%.
Google Search Trends (Brands)
The year-over-year decline in Google brand searches slowed to 2% in July.
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Google Searches75 Brands 2016 2017 2018
Source: Gray Associates Research, Keyword Search Trends for 75 Brands.
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Shrinking Programs
Google searches are falling fast for Teaching and Hospitality programs.
-68%
-45%
-43%
-34%
-34%
-28%
-27%
-23%
-80% -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0%
Hotel/Motel Administration/Management
Education, General
Hospitality Administration/Management, General
Administrative Assistant and Secretarial Science, General
Criminal Justice/Safety Studies
Elementary Education and Teaching
Chemistry, General
Teacher Education, Multiple Levels
Fastest-declining ProgramsJuly Google Searches
Teaching
Hospitality
Source: Gray Associates Research, Keyword Search Trends for Largest 200 IPEDS Programs.
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§ Harvard University is the only school new school on the list.
Fastest-growing Brands
In our sample of 75, the fastest-growing brands include very different schools.
6%
7%
11%
12%
12%
15%
17%
18%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
University of Kansas
Harvard University
College for America, SNHU
Florida Career College
University of Wyoming
Western Governors University
West Coast University
Universal Technical Institute
Fastest-growing BrandsGoogle Searches
Source: Gray Associates Research, Keyword Search Trends for Largest 200 IPEDS Programs.
23Confidential
§ Inquiries- National- Online & On-Campus- Program, Degree, & City
§ Google Search Trends- Programs- Brands- Growth and Decline
§ Program Sustainability- Gray Perspective
§ Regis Case Study on Program Sustainability
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Program Sustainability: An Integrated View
We envision four foundations of program sustainability.
Program Economics
Institutional Mission
Academic Standards
Program Markets
Foundations of Program Sustainability
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Program Sustainability: An Integrated View
Let’s briefly review best practices in market analysis.
Program Economics
Institutional Mission
Academic Standards
Program Markets
Foundations of Program Sustainability
Program ScoringWe suggest using four categories of market data.
StudentDemand
Employment
DegreeFit
CompetitiveIntensity
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Program Markets: Program Scorecard
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Program Sustainability: An Integrated View
A heathy program meets institutional, academic, financial, and market requirements.
Program Economics
Institutional Mission
Academic Standards
Program Markets
Foundations of Program Sustainability
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Program Economics: MethodologyAccumulate student revenue and instructor cost per credit hour by course.
-
+
} = Program Cost and Revenue
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Economic ScorecardThe Economic Scorecard includes comparisons to the college’s other programs.
§ Metrics per SCH enable apples to apples comparisons with other programs.§ The color coding shows the program’s rank vs. other programs at the college.
Nursing Program ContributionCommunity College
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Program Sustainability: An Integrated View
Now, Let’s turn it over to Linda, who will show how Regis integrated all four elements.
Program Economics
Institutional Mission
Academic Standards
Program Markets
Foundations of Program Sustainability
32Confidential
§ Inquiries- National- Online & On-Campus- Program, Degree, & City
§ Google Search Trends- Programs- Brands- Growth and Decline
§ Program Sustainability- Gray Perspective
§ Regis Case Study on Program Sustainability
Office of the Provost
Goal:
Tooptimizetheportfolioofprogramsandinformresourceallocationforshort-termandlong-termstrategicplanning.
Strategy:
Ø Facultyengagementwascritical;RegisUniversityAcademicCouncil(RUAC),composedofcollegerepresentatives.
Ø ProgramsarecategorizedasGROW,SUSTAIN,orINTERVENEbasedontheprocessbelow.
Process:
Ø Universityanalyticsandreporting(UAR)provideddatatoeachprogramforevaluation.Theprogramreviewedthedataandprovidedcommentarytogivecontext.Theprogramalsoprovideda300wordstatementonthemissionandstrategicfitoftheprogram.
Ø RUACevaluatedtheinformationandprovidedrecommendationstoProvost.TheProvostandDean’sreviewedtherecommendationsandsoughtfacultyinputtocreateprogrampriorities.
Outcome:
Programprioritiesinformuniversitystrategicplanningtoresourceprogramsaccordingtotheirpotentialforgrowth,necessarysustainability,orneedforintervention,eithertoclosetheprogramorcontinueasasustainableprograminthecurrentportfolio.
RegisUniversity’sProgramSustainabilityProject
ProgramSustainabilityDecision-MakingMatrix
Intervene• LowValue• Low/NoGrowth
GROW•HighValue• HighGrowth
SUSTAIN• HighValue• LowGrowth
START• HighPotentialValue
• HighPotentialGrowth
Requiresadditionalinvestment
Opportunitytoreallocatefunding
Office of the Provost
1) MissionandInstitutionalFit2) AssessmentofTrends3) RelevanceandDemand
4) StudentSuccessIndicators5) ResourceEfficiency
5KeyPerformanceCriteria
Office of the Provost
ProgramSustainabilityReportOffice of the Provost
Office of the Provost
Student Demand (-5 to +22)
33%
Competitive Intensity
(-14 to +2233%
Employment(-18 to +20)
27%
Degree Fit(-50 to +10)
15%
ComputerScience3YearCreditHoursTrend
CC&IS
Office of the Provost
CompetitiveAnalysisforComputerScience
CC&IS
Office of the Provost
SampleRegisUniversityAcademicCouncil(RUAC)DashboardScreenshot
CC&IS
Office of the Provost
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SummaryProgram Review should address all four foundations of Program Sustainability
Program Economics
Institutional Mission
Academic Standards
Program Markets
Foundations of Program Sustainability
Data • Insights • Strategy
www.GrayAssociates.com
Data • Insights • Strategy
www.GrayAssociates.com
Upcoming Gray Associates’ Webcast
September Webcast (August Results)Thursday, September 20th at 2:00 PM ET
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