2017 April GrayReports - Demand Trends in Higher Education

GRAYREPORTSDemand for Higher Education Programs

www.GrayAssociates.com

Results through April 2017

617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 2

GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.Email: [email protected]

Who Is Gray?

Program and Market Evaluation Data

Employment

Placement RatesStudent Inquiries

Demographics

Job Postings

Programs Price ProjectsPlace§ Program Evaluation

System§ Program profiles§ Program development

§ City targeting§ Location selection§ Campus consolidation

§ Price elasticity§ Price positioning§ Price optimization

§ Business strategy § Strategy implementation§ Acquisition analysis§ Complex analytics

Advanced AnalyticsPredictive Models

Geo-Analytics

Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders

Competition

Enhanced Crosswalks



Agenda

1. Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Google Searches

1. National

2. Online and On-Campus

3. Degree and Channel

4. City and Program

5. Mature Learners

2. Job Postings

3. Summary



Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)

We will share data from 2015, 2016 and 2017.§ GrayReports covers January 2012 through the present. § We add between 600,000 and one million qualified inquiries to the dataset each month.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

National InquiriesAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017




In 2017, inquiries have fallen by an average of 12% year-over-year.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000


National InquiriesAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

-12%




After a decline of just 9% in March, inquiry volumes dropped 15% in April.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000


National InquiriesAll Programs and Award Levels 2015 2016 2017-15% YoY



External Inquiries: Overall Results

External (or PPL) inquiries continued to plummet.§ Last year they fell an average of 15% year-over-year.§ April inquiries dropped 18% year-over-year.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000


National External InquiriesAll Programs and Award Levels 2015 2016 2017

-18% YoY



Branded Inquiries

After growing 7% in March, Branded inquiries declined 9% in April.§ In 2016, the average monthly growth rate for Branded inquiries was 6%.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


National Branded InquiriesAll Programs and Award Levels 2015 2016 2017

-9% YoY



80859095

100105110115120125130

Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2014Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2015Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017

Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends(Indexed to Q1 2014)

Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates

In 2017, conversion rates are already well above our 2014 baseline.§ Q1 2017 beat last year by 14% and Q1 inquiries will continue to convert.

1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry is received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March is counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for three months or more after the month in which the inquiries were received.

2. Total includes unknown source type.

+14%



Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)

For January inquiries, total conversions declined 4% year-over-year.§ It now takes six months for conversions to fully mature.§ February conversions will likely remain lower than last year’s results.

1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000


Total Inquiry ConversionsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

-4% YoY

Immature Months1



Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2015 $43.10 $43.50 $43.70 $43.61 $43.80 $43.63 $45.07 $44.75 $45.24 $44.92 $44.67 $44.752016 $45.11 $45.91 $44.79 $44.85 $42.47 $44.97 $44.39 $44.53 $45.13 $44.77 $44.89 $45.492017 $45.39 $45.30 $45.51 $45.45 $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $-

$30$32$34$36$38$40$42$44$46$48

Average Price per Inquiry for PPIAll Programs and Award Levels

Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry

Since December, the average price of an External inquiry has been over $45.§ Prices started the year over $45.§ In March and April, prices hovered around $45.50.

Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.

+1%



Agenda


1. National



4. City and Program

5. Mature Learners

2. Job Postings

3. Summary



0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels 2015 2016

Inquiries for Online ProgramsEducation Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeYear-over-year, inquiries for online programs were flat in 2016.

+0.5%



Inquiries for Online ProgramsEducation Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeInquiries for online programs grew 4% in April.§ Inquiries for online programs have now increased in nine of the last ten months.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017+4% YoY



Student Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs

Conversions for online higher education programs increased 69% in January.§ This is the sixth consecutive increase in conversions.§ The immature months have already passed last year’s volumes.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000


Inquiry Conversions for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.

+69% YoY

Immature Months1



Inquiries for On-Campus Programs

In 2016, inquiries for on-campus academic programs declined an average of 15% year-over-year.

2012

050,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for On-Campus ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016

1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.

-15%



Inquiries for On-Campus Programs

In 2017, inquiries for on-campus academic programs have continued their decline.§ In March, inquiries for on-campus programs dropped 11% year-over-year.§ April inquiries for on-campus higher education programs plunged 18%.

2012

050,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for On-Campus ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

-18% YoY1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January conversion).

Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.



Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs

Conversions for on-campus programs fell 17% year-over-year in January.§ December conversions improved 2% this month, but still fell short year-over-year.§ The three immature months have a lot of ground to make up.

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,00018,000


Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

-17% YOY1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January conversion).

Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.

Immature Months1



Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)

For January inquiries, total conversions declined 4% year-over-year.§ It now takes six months for conversions to fully mature.§ February conversions will likely remain lower than last year’s results.

1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000


Total Inquiry ConversionsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

-4% YoY

Immature Months1



Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2015 $43.10 $43.50 $43.70 $43.61 $43.80 $43.63 $45.07 $44.75 $45.24 $44.92 $44.67 $44.752016 $45.11 $45.91 $44.79 $44.85 $42.47 $44.97 $44.39 $44.53 $45.13 $44.77 $44.89 $45.492017 $45.39 $45.30 $45.51 $45.45 $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $-

$30$32$34$36$38$40$42$44$46$48

Average Price per Inquiry for PPIAll Programs and Award Levels

Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry

Since December, the average price of an External inquiry has been over $45.§ In March and April, prices have hovered around $45.00

Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.

+1%



Google Search: Cost Per Click

In Q1 2017, keywords associated with Health Care Administration were the most expensive.

$27

$27

$28

$28

$28

$28

$30

$31

$34

$46

$0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50

Marketing/Marketing Management, General.

Medical Insurance Coding Specialist/Coder.

Business Administration and Management, General.

Nursing Practice.

Family Practice Nurse/Nursing.

Human Resources Management/Personnel …

Computer and Information Systems Security/Information Assurance.

Accounting.

Criminal Justice/Safety Studies.

Health/Health Care Administration/Management.

National Google Search Cost Per Click

Source: Gray Associates, Google Search Research.



Agenda


1. National



4. City and Program

5. Mature Learners

2. Job Postings

3. Summary



Inquiry Volumes by Degree – Trailing Three Months

Post-Master’s certificates continued to be the fastest-growing awards.§ Associate’s degrees also increased over the past quarter (6%).§ Associate’s continue to outperform the more advanced degrees.

-15%

-20%

-10%

-7%

6%

104%

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%

Master's degrees

Bachelor's degrees

Doctoral degrees

Undergraduate certificates

Associate's degrees

Post-master's certificates

Quarterly Change in InquiriesFebruary through April YoY



Inquiry Volumes by Channel – Trailing Three Months

Once again, Affiliate – PPC was the fastest-growing channel for student inquiries. § Six different Branded inquiry channels grew in the most recent quarter.

-79% -40% -39% -29% -24% -23%

-11% -5%

0% 1% 4% 4% 8%

33% 56%

298%

-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350%

PPC - Inbound Call: BrandedDisplay: BrandedPPL: ExternalReferral: BrandedInteractive: BrandedAll Other Branded: BrandedSocial Media: BrandedWebsite: BrandedAffiliate: ExternalInbound Phone: BrandedOrganic: BrandedEmail: BrandedPPC: BrandedEvent: BrandedOffline Media: BrandedAffiliate - PPC: External

Quarterly Change in Inquiries by ChannelAll Programs and Award Levels

(February through April YoY) BrandedExternal



Agenda


1. National



4. City and Program

5. Mature Learners

2. Job Postings

3. Summary



Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities

All of The Big 5 Cities fell by double digits year-over-year.§ The pace of decline has slowed in three markets, but accelerated in Philadelphia.§ Inquiries for the Chicago market continue to decline 30% or more.

-25% -23%

-31%

-9%

-34%

-10% -13% -13%

-19%

-30%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

New York, NY Los Angeles, CA Atlanta, GA Philadelphia, PA Chicago, IL

Top Five Cities for Inquiries Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in April Inquiries

2016 YoY % Change 2017 YoY % Change

Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.



The Big 5 Programs: March Growth

Inquiries for the Big Five Programs shrank again.§ Medical Assisting, which was also the best performer last month, performed the best, but dropped 19%.§ Registered Nursing was down 22%.§ Criminal Justice/Police Science was down 37%.§ The two business programs continued to drop, both down more than 23%.

-19% -22% -23%

-37% -41% -45%

-40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0%

Medical Assistant Registered Nursing Business Admin: Associate's -

Criminal Justice Business Admin: Bachelor's +

Five Largest Programs Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in April Inquiries

2017 YoY % Change



-78%

-61% -52% -51% -49%

-100%

-50%

0%

Computer and Information Sciences

Accounting and Finance

Criminal Justice/ Safety Studies

Information Systems Security/ Information

Assurance.

Marketing/ Marketing Management

The Slow 5 ProgramsYear-over-Year Change in April Inquiries

2017 YoY % Change

The Slow 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Slowest Inquiry Growth

All five of the slowest-growing programs1 shrank more than 49%.§ Computer and Information Sciences declined 78% YoY.§ Information Systems Security and Marketing are the two new programs in the “Slow 5” this month.

1. Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.



356%

186%

126% 111% 88%

-50% 0%

50% 100% 150%

200%

250% 300% 350% 400%

Human Services

Medical Insurance Coding

Counseling Psychology

Medical Office Assistant

Computer Support Specialist

The Fast 5 ProgramsYear-over-Year Change in April Inquiries

2017 YoY % Change

The Fast 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth

All five of the fastest-growing programs1 grew more than 88%.§ At 356%, Human Services grew the fastest for the seventh consecutive month.§ Second on the list, Medical Insurance Coding, grew nearly 186%.§ Medical Office Assistant, also in the top 5 last month, grew 111%.§ We have two new members of the Fast Five: Medical Office Assistant and Computer Support Specialist.

1. Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.



Computer Support Specialist: 10 Highest-Scoring States

Using Gray’s data and scoring system can identify the most attractive location for a program—or a school. In this case, Pennsylvania leads with strong Student Demand and Competitive Intensity.



Computer Support Specialist: Pennsylvania Market Scorecard

In PA, Student Demand is high and growing fast for Computer Support Specialist.




Job Postings are also above the 90th percentile (top 5 states).




BLS confirms high employment of CSSs in Pennsylvania.




Wages in PA range from $30,000 to $40,000, about average for CSS in the US.




13 competitors offering CSS drew a negative 4 points for Competitive Intensity.



Agenda


1. National



4. City and Program

5. Mature Learners

2. Job Postings

3. Summary



Student Inquiries: Age Groups – Master’s Inquiries

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

Family Practice Nurse/Nursing

Engineering, General

Computer Systems Analysis/Analyst

Registered Nursing


Engineering Technology, General

Project Management

Computer Sys. Networking/Telecomm

Cinematography and Film/Video Prod

Public Administration

Differences in Program Interest by Age Group1

(10 Master’s Programs with Greatest Interest by Traditional Age Group)

In High SchoolTraditionalPost TraditionalMature

1. Index (Z-Score) of the difference from the mean interest across all age groups inquiring about a given program.

Interest in programs varies widely by age group.

Difference Index



Student Inquiries: Age Groups

-2 -1 -1 0 1 1 2 2

Doctorate

Post-master's Certificate

Master's

Bachelor's

Associate's

Certificate

Degree PreferencesMature Learners

Mature students are more interested in Doctorate or Post-Master’s Certificate programs.

Difference Index




Student Inquiries: Age Groups – Master’s Inquiries

-2 -1 0 1 2

Christian Studies

Organizational Behavior Studies

Medical Informatics

ESL Language Instructor

Special Ed. and Teaching, General


Family Practice Nurse/Nursing

Engineering, General

Computer Systems Analysis/Analyst

Arts, Entertainment,and Media Mgmt, Gen'l

Differences from Mean Interest in Master’s Programs Mature Learners


Mature students are more interested in programs that enrich their lives and the lives of others.

Difference Index



Agenda


1. National



4. City and Program

5. Mature Learners

2. Job Postings

3. Summary



Job Postings: Demand Map

Where are the top locations for jobs? Example: Medical Billing and Medical Coding

MSAs (Top 5 MSA) Count % of Total Location Quotient Demand Level IndexNew York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA 2,992 6.00% 0.8 Low

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 2,320 4.65% 1.0 Average

Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI 1,879 3.77% 1.0 Average

Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 1,765 3.54% 2.3 Very High

Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD 1,562 3.13% 1.4 High

Total (specified) 57,073

Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017.Keywords : “Medical Bill* (billing, biller etc.)” and “Medical Cod* (coding, coder etc.)” were used in this analysis. Timeline: May 01 2016 to April 30 2017.



Job Postings: Annual Job Counts

Job postings volume indicates strong employer demand for Medical Coders and Medical Billers in the Philadelphia Metro Area.


111 110 112 58 49

184 258 321

1,015

1,385

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Annual Job PostingsMedical Coders and Medical Billers – Philadelphia MSA

Job Boards and Staffing Agencies

Employer Websites



Job Postings: Job Titles

Medical Coder and Medical Biller are the most common job titles.

Job Titles (Top 10) Count % to TotalMedical Coder 508 32.52%Medical Biller 395 25.29%

Medical Billing Specialist 221 14.15%Medical Billing 66 4.23%

Medical Billing Clerk 23 1.47%Medical Billing/ Representative 21 1.34%Got Unpaid Medical Bills Work 20 1.28%Medical Billing Representative 19 1.22%

Medical Coding 15 0.96%Accounts Receivable Representative 14 0.90%

Total 1,562




Job Postings: Sample Salary

The majority of Medical Coder and Medical Biller listed salaries are less than $35,000.


256

96

28

42

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Less than $35,000

$35,000 to $49,999

$50,000 to $74,999

More than $75,000

Salary Distribution (Advertised)

§ 73% of the job postings did not have any salary information.



Job Postings: Skill Clusters

As expected, the skill clusters most commonly cited are typically related to Health Care.§ 60% of the job postings mentioned Billing and Coding.

8%

8%

9%

11%

12%

13%

13%

25%

46%

60%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Health Care: Basic Patient Care

Customer and Client Support: Claims Processing

Administration: General Administrative and Clerical Tasks

Health Care: Medical Documentation and Abstraction

Health Care: General Medicine

Customer and Client Support: Basic Customer Service

Finance: General Accounting

Information Technology: Microsoft Office and Productivity Tools

Finance: Billing and Invoicing

Health Care: Medical Billing and Coding

Most Frequently Cited Skill Clusters in Job Postings

FinanceOther


Health CareCustomer Support



Job Postings: Education (Minimum Advertised)

Associate’s degree is the most common degree type listed in job postings.§ 10% of the specified job postings advertised a Bachelor’s degree.

10%

28%

62%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Bachelor's degree

High school or vocational training

Associate's degree

Most Frequently Cited Education (Minimum Advertised)




History Job Postings: Employers

80% of the job postings did not specify an employer.

11

9

9

8

8

8

8

8

7

7

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Silvia Orta Hope & Faith 2 Network

Employer 2

Mjol

Employer 4

Continuum Health Alliance

Fresenius

Employer 7

Employer 8

Department of Veterans Affairs

Employer 10

Employers by Volume in Job Postings


§ The largest employer accounts for less than 1% of the job postings.



Agenda


1. National



4. City and Program

5. Mature Learners

2. Job Postings

3. Summary



Key Demand Trends and Observations

§ Overall inquiry volumes continued to decline 15%.

§ External inquiries dropped 18%, and Branded inquiries dropped 9%.

§ But, some trends are strongly diverging by segment.

─ Inquiries for on-campus programs fell 18%, while inquiries for online grew 4%.

─ Conversions on-campus fell 17%, but online programs are up close to 70%.

§ Human Services continues to be the fastest-growing program.

§ Employment for Medical Biller and Coder is growing significantly.

─ Medical Insurance Coding is also April’s 2nd fastest growing program.

─ However, most advertised salaries for this program are less than $35,000.

§ Mature Learners are an emerging segment with unusual interests.

§ It is now possible to assess how potential new markets fit with your programs.



Questions and Contacts

Please feel free to contact:Bob Atkins

CEOGray Associates, Inc.

[email protected]@Gray_Associates

617.366.2836



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2017 April GrayReports - Demand Trends in Higher Education

Data & Analytics

Transcript of 2017 April GrayReports - Demand Trends in Higher Education