Crime Statistics, what do we need them for?
A discussion based on the situation in the Netherlands
Paul Smit
Research and Documentation Centre (WODC) Ministry of Justice
Recorded crime, 1960 - 2003
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
* 1000
recorded crimes
crimes solved
suspects found
suspects in pre-trial detention
Why Crime Statistics
Passively:
• To see what happens, look at trends, and act accordingly
Actively:
• To measure the success of policies
• To help defining policies
Contents
• Crime Statistics in the Netherlands
• Examples – The policy program: towards a safer society– Modelling the Criminal Justice system– Offenders from ethnic minorities
• Discussion / Conclusions
CBS Ministry of Justice Min Int. A.
Victim Surveys POLSPolice Monitor
Safety Mon
Police registr.CBS Police statistics
HKS System
Police suspects
Pros. input
CBS Court Statistics
OMDataOBJD
Pros. decisions
Court decisions
Reconviction
Prison pop.CBS Prison Statistics
TULP
Main characteristics
• (Too) many statistics
Safety Mon
TULPCBS Prison Statistics
Prison pop.
Offenders
Court decisions
Pros. decisionsOBJD
OMDataCBS Court Statistics
Pros. input
Police suspects
HKS System
CBS Police statistics
Police registr.
Police MonitorPOLSVictim Surveys
Min Int. A.Ministry of JusticeCBS
CBS Ministry of Justice Min Int. A.
Victim Surveys Integrated Comprehensive Victim Survey
Police registr.CBS Police statistics
HKS System
Police suspects
Pros. input
CBS Court Statistics
OMDataOBJD
Pros. decisions
Court decisions
Offenders
Prison pop.CBS Prison Statistics
TULP
Observation (1)
When the main (or sole) user of the statistics is also the only provider of the data the statistics are based on, there is less need for a central statistical bureau for these statistics
Main characteristics
• (Too) many statistics
• Isolated statistics
Example 1
The policy program: towards a safer society
Precise targets:
• Reduction of crime in public spaces
• Opinion of police and feelings of safety
• Repeat offenders
Observation (2)
It can be very dangerous to make statements on the success of policy measures based on outcome statistics alone
Example 2
Modelling the Criminal Justice system
• Econometric model, based on aggragate statistics
PolitieMisdrijven
PolitieOphelderingen
PolitieVerdachten
PolitieVoorlopige hechtenis
OMInstroom
OMSepot
OMBeleidssepot
OMOnvoorwaardelijk beleidssepot
OMWerkstraf
OMGeldsom
OMAfdoeningen
OMTransactie
OMDagvaarding
OMTechnisch sepot
ZMSchuldig
ZMOntslag van rechtsvervolging
ZMAfdoeningen
ZMGetuige/tolk MK-zaak
ZMEnkelvoudige kamer
ZMVrijspraak
NFIAangeboden zaken
NFIOnderzoeksaanvragen
Schadefonds geweldsmisdrijvenAantal verzoeken
Schadefonds GeweldsmisdrijvenToegekende verzoeken
SlachtofferhulpAantal cliënten
Hoger BeroepTaakstraffen
Hoger BeroepTBS-opleggingen
Hoger BeroepAantal gevangenisstraffen
Hoger BeroepWerkstraffen
Hoger BeroepBoetes
Hoger BeroepCassatie
Hoger BeroepOntnemingsmaatregelen MK-zaak
ReclasseringMaatregelrapportages
ReclasseringVroeghulpbezoek
ReclasseringReïntegratieprogramma’s
ReclasseringVoorlichtingsrapportages
ReclasseringVroeghulpinterventies
RechtsbijstandReguliere straftoevoegingen
RechtsbijstandAmbtshalve straftoevoegingen
RechtsbijstandPiketdiensten
RechtsbijstandVreemdelingenbewaring
TolkenAdvocatuur
TolkenTBS
TolkenGevangeniswezen
TolkenReclassering
Tolken Vreemdelingendiensten
SchadeloosstellingAantal verzoeken
SchadeloosstelingToegekende verzoeken
DJIDirecte capaciteitsbehoefte
DJIPenitentiaire Programma’s
DJICapaciteitsbehoefte vreemdelingenbewaring
DJIIndirecte capaciteitsbehoefte
DJICapaciteitsbehoefteGevangeniswezen
DJIVH bij taakstraffen
DJIVH bij TBS
CJIBInstroom WAHV
CJIBLCA instroom
CJIBVerzet
CJIBBeroep OvJ
CJIBBeroep kantonrechter
CJIBTrias direct
CJIBTrias via COMPAS
CJIBOntnemingen
CJIBSchadevergoeding
CJIBPercentage mislukte taakstraffen
CJIBPercentage mislukte boetes
VreemdelingenVreemdelingenbewaring
Externefactoren
Middelenpolitie
Externefactoren
Externefactoren
MiddelenOM
MiddelenZM
Externefactoren
ReclasseringAdviesrapportages
ReclasseringToeleiding zorg
OMLeerstraf
OMOntneming wederrechtelijk voordeel
OMVoorwaardelijk beleidssepot
ZMMeervoudige kamer
Hoger BeroepLeerstraffen
Prognosemodel Justitiële Ketens: Veiligheidsketen volwassenen, versie 1.1
Externefactoren
ZMGetuige/tolk EK-zaak
Hoger BeroepOntnemingsmaatregelen EK-zaak
ZMGetuige/tolk kantonzaak
Example 2
Modelling the Criminal Justice System
• Econometric model, based on aggragate statistics
• Also external factors
• Knowledge of the working (the expected behaviour) of the Criminal Justice System
Observation (3)
Integrating different areas of Crime Statistics and Statistics from other areas, even if this integration is on an aggragate level only, is very useful in observing the working of the Criminal Justice System as a whole and the expected outcome of specific policy measures
Example 3
Offenders from ethnic minorities
• Offender data are linked (on individual level) with demographic data. This gives information on ethnicity
• These data are linked to other social and economic statistics
• Helpful for implementing specific policy programs
Observation (4)
Integrating Crime Statistics on an individual level with statistics from other areas is very useful in understanding crime related phenomena and in formulating specific policy measures
TULPCBS Prison Statistics
Prison pop.
Offenders
Court decisions
Pros. decisionsOBJD
OMDataCBS Court Statistics
Pros. input
Police suspects
HKS System
CBS Police statistics
Police registr.
Integrated Comprehensive Victim SurveyVictim Surveys
Min Int. A.Ministry of JusticeCBS
CBS Ministry of Justice Min Int. A.
Victim Surveys Integrated Comprehensive Victim Survey
Police registr.CBS Police statistics
HKS System
Police suspects
Pros. input
CBS Court Statistics
OMData
OBJD
Pros. decisions
Court decisions
Offenders
Prison pop.CBS Prison Statistics
TULP
CBS Ministry of Justice Min Int. A.
Victim Surveys Integrated Comprehensive Victim Survey
Police registr.CBS Police statistics
HKS System
Police suspects
Pros. input
CBS Court Statistics
OMData
OBJD
Pros. decisions
Court decisions
Offenders
Prison pop.CBS Prison Statistics
TULP
Link with other
social statistics
Main conclusions
The big challenge in the coming years is integration of statistics, preferably on an individual level. Within the different areas of the Criminal Justice System, but also with other (demographic, economic and social) statistics.
Main conclusions (cont.)
This in order to get a better understanding of the working of the Criminal Justice System itself and the influence of external factors. Only then a fact based policy making is possible. To achieve this a central statistical bureau, having access to statistics in different areas is very important.
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