Crime Statistics, what do we need them for?

A discussion based on the situation in the Netherlands

Paul Smit

Research and Documentation Centre (WODC) Ministry of Justice

Recorded crime, 1960 - 2003

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

* 1000

recorded crimes

crimes solved

suspects found

suspects in pre-trial detention

Why Crime Statistics

Passively:

• To see what happens, look at trends, and act accordingly

Actively:

• To measure the success of policies

• To help defining policies

Contents

• Crime Statistics in the Netherlands

• Examples – The policy program: towards a safer society– Modelling the Criminal Justice system– Offenders from ethnic minorities

• Discussion / Conclusions

CBS Ministry of Justice Min Int. A.

Victim Surveys POLSPolice Monitor

Safety Mon

Police registr.CBS Police statistics

HKS System

Police suspects

Pros. input

CBS Court Statistics

OMDataOBJD

Pros. decisions

Court decisions

Reconviction

Prison pop.CBS Prison Statistics

TULP

Main characteristics

• (Too) many statistics

Safety Mon

TULPCBS Prison Statistics

Prison pop.

Offenders

Court decisions

Pros. decisionsOBJD

OMDataCBS Court Statistics

Pros. input

Police suspects

HKS System

CBS Police statistics

Police registr.

Police MonitorPOLSVictim Surveys

Min Int. A.Ministry of JusticeCBS

CBS Ministry of Justice Min Int. A.

Victim Surveys Integrated Comprehensive Victim Survey

Police registr.CBS Police statistics

HKS System

Police suspects

Pros. input

CBS Court Statistics

OMDataOBJD

Pros. decisions

Court decisions

Offenders

Prison pop.CBS Prison Statistics

TULP

Observation (1)

When the main (or sole) user of the statistics is also the only provider of the data the statistics are based on, there is less need for a central statistical bureau for these statistics

Main characteristics

• (Too) many statistics

• Isolated statistics

Example 1

The policy program: towards a safer society

Precise targets:

• Reduction of crime in public spaces

• Opinion of police and feelings of safety

• Repeat offenders

Observation (2)

It can be very dangerous to make statements on the success of policy measures based on outcome statistics alone

Example 2

Modelling the Criminal Justice system

• Econometric model, based on aggragate statistics

PolitieMisdrijven

PolitieOphelderingen

PolitieVerdachten

PolitieVoorlopige hechtenis

OMInstroom

OMSepot

OMBeleidssepot

OMOnvoorwaardelijk beleidssepot

OMWerkstraf

OMGeldsom

OMAfdoeningen

OMTransactie

OMDagvaarding

OMTechnisch sepot

ZMSchuldig

ZMOntslag van rechtsvervolging

ZMAfdoeningen

ZMGetuige/tolk MK-zaak

ZMEnkelvoudige kamer

ZMVrijspraak

NFIAangeboden zaken

NFIOnderzoeksaanvragen

Schadefonds geweldsmisdrijvenAantal verzoeken

Schadefonds GeweldsmisdrijvenToegekende verzoeken

SlachtofferhulpAantal cliënten

Hoger BeroepTaakstraffen

Hoger BeroepTBS-opleggingen

Hoger BeroepAantal gevangenisstraffen

Hoger BeroepWerkstraffen

Hoger BeroepBoetes

Hoger BeroepCassatie

Hoger BeroepOntnemingsmaatregelen MK-zaak

ReclasseringMaatregelrapportages

ReclasseringVroeghulpbezoek

ReclasseringReïntegratieprogramma’s

ReclasseringVoorlichtingsrapportages

ReclasseringVroeghulpinterventies

RechtsbijstandReguliere straftoevoegingen

RechtsbijstandAmbtshalve straftoevoegingen

RechtsbijstandPiketdiensten

RechtsbijstandVreemdelingenbewaring

TolkenAdvocatuur

TolkenTBS

TolkenGevangeniswezen

TolkenReclassering

Tolken Vreemdelingendiensten

SchadeloosstellingAantal verzoeken

SchadeloosstelingToegekende verzoeken

DJIDirecte capaciteitsbehoefte

DJIPenitentiaire Programma’s

DJICapaciteitsbehoefte vreemdelingenbewaring

DJIIndirecte capaciteitsbehoefte

DJICapaciteitsbehoefteGevangeniswezen

DJIVH bij taakstraffen

DJIVH bij TBS

CJIBInstroom WAHV

CJIBLCA instroom

CJIBVerzet

CJIBBeroep OvJ

CJIBBeroep kantonrechter

CJIBTrias direct

CJIBTrias via COMPAS

CJIBOntnemingen

CJIBSchadevergoeding

CJIBPercentage mislukte taakstraffen

CJIBPercentage mislukte boetes

VreemdelingenVreemdelingenbewaring

Externefactoren

Middelenpolitie

Externefactoren

Externefactoren

MiddelenOM

MiddelenZM

Externefactoren

ReclasseringAdviesrapportages

ReclasseringToeleiding zorg

OMLeerstraf

OMOntneming wederrechtelijk voordeel

OMVoorwaardelijk beleidssepot

ZMMeervoudige kamer

Hoger BeroepLeerstraffen

Prognosemodel Justitiële Ketens: Veiligheidsketen volwassenen, versie 1.1

Externefactoren

ZMGetuige/tolk EK-zaak

Hoger BeroepOntnemingsmaatregelen EK-zaak

ZMGetuige/tolk kantonzaak

Example 2

Modelling the Criminal Justice System

• Econometric model, based on aggragate statistics

• Also external factors

• Knowledge of the working (the expected behaviour) of the Criminal Justice System

Observation (3)

Integrating different areas of Crime Statistics and Statistics from other areas, even if this integration is on an aggragate level only, is very useful in observing the working of the Criminal Justice System as a whole and the expected outcome of specific policy measures

Example 3

Offenders from ethnic minorities

• Offender data are linked (on individual level) with demographic data. This gives information on ethnicity

• These data are linked to other social and economic statistics

• Helpful for implementing specific policy programs

Observation (4)

Integrating Crime Statistics on an individual level with statistics from other areas is very useful in understanding crime related phenomena and in formulating specific policy measures

TULPCBS Prison Statistics

Prison pop.

Offenders

Court decisions

Pros. decisionsOBJD

OMDataCBS Court Statistics

Pros. input

Police suspects

HKS System

CBS Police statistics

Police registr.

Integrated Comprehensive Victim SurveyVictim Surveys

Min Int. A.Ministry of JusticeCBS

CBS Ministry of Justice Min Int. A.

Victim Surveys Integrated Comprehensive Victim Survey

Police registr.CBS Police statistics

HKS System

Police suspects

Pros. input

CBS Court Statistics

OMData

OBJD

Pros. decisions

Court decisions

Offenders

Prison pop.CBS Prison Statistics

TULP

CBS Ministry of Justice Min Int. A.

Victim Surveys Integrated Comprehensive Victim Survey

Police registr.CBS Police statistics

HKS System

Police suspects

Pros. input

CBS Court Statistics

OMData

OBJD

Pros. decisions

Court decisions

Offenders

Prison pop.CBS Prison Statistics

TULP

Link with other

social statistics

Main conclusions

The big challenge in the coming years is integration of statistics, preferably on an individual level. Within the different areas of the Criminal Justice System, but also with other (demographic, economic and social) statistics.

Main conclusions (cont.)

This in order to get a better understanding of the working of the Criminal Justice System itself and the influence of external factors. Only then a fact based policy making is possible. To achieve this a central statistical bureau, having access to statistics in different areas is very important.