Climate Futures for Climate Futures for Tasmania:Tasmania:
Prospects, Impacts and Prospects, Impacts and Information for Adaption Information for Adaption
OptionsOptionsNathan Bindoff et al.Nathan Bindoff et al.
ACE CRC, DPIW, Hydro ACE CRC, DPIW, Hydro Tasmania,SES,BoM, GA, TIAR, TPAC, Tasmania,SES,BoM, GA, TIAR, TPAC,
CSIRO MAR CSIRO MAR
Projections of Future Changes in Climate
Best estimate for low scenario (B1) is 1.8°C (likely range is 1.1°C to 2.9°C), and for high scenario (A1FI) is 4.0°C (likely range is 2.4°C to 6.4°C).
Broadly consistent with span quoted for SRES in TAR, but not directly comparable
Research activities
•Fine scale climate projections
•Modelling water flows and reservoirs
•Key climate variables
•Planning, agriculture,
•utility sectors and environment
•Extreme events
•Changes in occurrence
•Consequence of change
•Eg drought, flood, frosts, heat waves
Storms/winds
Research Modules
AWBM
Assumption: no change in land use
Assumption: no change in land use
Tasmania Water Catchment Models
Factor of 1.0 represents no change in inflows
Factors <1.0 represents drying
Factors >1.0 represents wetter
Great Lake factors well below 1.0 and thus drying predicted
Others have drier Summers/Autumns and wetter Winters
Example: Hydro Tasmania Inflow
Prediction
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Arthur's Lake
Great Lake
Trevallyn Dam
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.50.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.31.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lake Burbury
Lake Mackintosh
Lake Rowallan
Most important lake
Key Outputs Outputs/Products
General Climate Impacts Assessments of climate conditions through 2100 Mean trends in key variables Changes in climate variables (winds, heat waves, rainfall) Reports
General Agricultural Impacts Assessments of impacts of climate on key agricultural
sectors through 2100 Changes in frost and their impacts Crop models and disease models, and impacts of climate
change Strategies for adaptation (economic modeling) Reports to the wider community. Extreme Events
Key Outputs Outputs/Products
Extreme Events (on land, and on sea-level) Risk of winds on infrastructure (eg residential, commercial and
industrial) Assessments of storm surges and sea-level on extreme sea level
returns for Tasmania through 2100 Strategies for adaption Reports
Water and Water Catcements Assessments of impacts on water and water catchments through
2100 Hydro Tasmania, dam and reservoir capacity (and hence yields) DPIW and Hydro Tasmania stream flow and water availability SES, provide data for updating flood and flood inundation maps Strategies for adaption Reports
Perceived unfunded gaps Bushfires (Bushfire CRC/GA are interested)
Landslip and soils (depends on extreme rainfall)
Impacts and risks of heat waves, flooding on built assets
Risks for power generation
Risks for natural environment
Risks for forests
Risks for river and catchment chemistry
Economics aspects in this framework.
The Players
Key user questions
Research Activities
Downscaling and global signals Tasmanian context
Research outcome and outputs
Resources
Introduction
Key User Questions:Climate Change
•Water policy and legislation
•Water management and infrastructure
•Power Generation
•Reservoirs, winds
•Power Distribution (heat waves)
•Emergency planning
•Bushfires, floods
•Protection of high value assets
•From tourism
•Impacts on power and water
dependent industry
•Agriculture
•Crops, wine, other horticulture, disease
•Sea level surges
•(from wind changes)
The Players
Fine Scale Climate Projections
What is downscaling
•CCAM – Cubic Conformal Atmosphere
Model
• CSIRO MAR (John McGregor)
•Validation phase
•IPCC – models are used
•Interpolation of pre-existing IPCC
scenarios
Example from South West Australia
Factor of 1.0 represents no change in inflows
Factors <1.0 represents drying
Factors >1.0 represents wetter
Great Lake factors well below 1.0 and thus drying predicted
Others have drier Summers/Autumns and wetter Winters
Example: Hydro Tasmania Inflow
Prediction
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Arthur's Lake
Great Lake
Trevallyn Dam
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.50.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.31.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lake Burbury
Lake Mackintosh
Lake Rowallan
Most important lake
Resources 5 new postdoctoral fellows, 1 liason officer, project
management team
Engagement of skills and expertise from the consortia members, including Tasmanian State Departments and business enterprises
$8 million over three years (cash + inkind)
Data Management (TPAC Digital Library)
Potential Collaborations
CERF funded projects
Other initiatives (eg SEACI).
Climate models, and climate model credibility
Observations 1980-2000
Mean Model 1980-2000
Projections of Future Changes in Climate
Best estimate for low scenario (B1) is 1.8°C (likely range is 1.1°C to 2.9°C), and for high scenario (A1FI) is 4.0°C (likely range is 2.4°C to 6.4°C).
Broadly consistent with span quoted for SRES in TAR, but not directly comparable
• Precipitation increases are very likely in high latitudes in 2090-2099
• Decreases are likely in most subtropical land regions in 2090-2099
Figure SPM-6, TS-30, 10.9
Projections of Future Changes in
Climate
Tasmania
The most important spatial pattern (top) of the monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for 1900 to 2002.
The time series (below) accounts for most of the trend in PDSI.
Drought is increasing most places
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