Charting the CourseDeveloping Effective Plans for the Future
Youth Violence Reduction: Making the Case for Evidence Based
Strategies
The Standard Approach
• Survey Your Community
• Identify the Most Common Risk Factors
• Choose Which of the Most Common Risk Factors to Target
To Maximize Effectiveness
• DON’T Target the Most Common Risk Factors
• Target Those UNCOMMON Risk Factors (Or Combinations of Risk Factors) Most Closely Associated With Crime
The Yonkers JCEC Database
• Uses Unique IDs to Maintain Confidentiality
• Unique IDs Based on System Used for HIV Records
• Cross-References Multiple Data Sets
The Pyramid of Risk
4333,893All Youth Aged 7-15
7517,168Males Aged 7-15
1076,614Aged 10-14, High Poverty
3621709Grades 7-8, 20+ Absences
3824690Grades 1-12, 3-Day Suspension
4941170Aged 11-13, Arrested in 2003
1286141Grades 6-8, 20+ Absences AND 3-Day Suspension
# Arrests (Per 100, 3 Years)
# Arrested (Per 100, 3 Years)
Group Size
Risk Factor
2. But AVOID CREATING GANGS!
HOW?
Provide One-On-One Services
Mentoring
Functional Family Therapy
Scatter in Pro-Social Groups
Recommendations for Providers
3. Track Arrests (The Ultimate Outcome Measure)
HOW?
Preserve Confidentiality
Obtain Parental Consent
Give Program Participant Names to Police
Get Back ONLY Aggregate Number of Arrests
Recommendations for Providers
4. Use Yonkers Data as “Estimated Baseline”
HOW?
See “Sample Program Outcomes Form”
Recommendations for Providers
Recommendations for Providers
5. Estimate Cost Per Arrest Prevented
HOW?
Calculate Yonkers Baseline for Your Group
Compare Your Results to Estimated Baseline
Calculate Estimated Number of Arrests Prevented
Divide Costs By Number of Arrests Prevented
Recommendations for Providers
1. Target the Highest-Risk Groups
2. But AVOID CREATING GANGS
3. Track Arrests
4. Use Yonkers Data as “Estimated Baseline”
5. Estimate Cost Per Arrest Prevented
Recommendations for Funders
1. Target the Highest-Risk Groups
2. Measure % of High-Risk Groups Now Served
3. Make Funded Programs Report Arrest Rate
4. Compare Arrest Rates Across Similar Programs
5. Use Yonkers Data as Estimated Baseline
6. Estimate Cost Per Arrest Prevented
5. Join PD&D’s Proposed Research Project
Top Related