Charting the CourseDeveloping Effective Plans for the Future

Youth Violence Reduction: Making the Case for Evidence Based

Strategies

Presented by:

Karl Bertrand, L.M.S.W

“Evidence-Based Models” Guide HOW You Serve

“Evidence-Based Targeting” Guides WHO You Serve

Need to Target Limited Resources

• Option 1: Wait Until Kids Get Arrested

• Option 2: MOVE UPSTREAM

54 Risk Factors!

• Being Male

• Being Poor

• Being a Gang Member

We Need Weighted Risk Factors

The Standard Approach

• Survey Your Community

• Identify the Most Common Risk Factors

• Choose Which of the Most Common Risk Factors to Target

The Standard Approach is WEAK!

To Maximize Effectiveness

• DON’T Target the Most Common Risk Factors

• Target Those UNCOMMON Risk Factors (Or Combinations of Risk Factors) Most Closely Associated With Crime

The Challenge

How To Identify the Most Significant Risk Factors

The Yonkers JCEC Database

• Uses Unique IDs to Maintain Confidentiality

• Unique IDs Based on System Used for HIV Records

• Cross-References Multiple Data Sets

• Police Data

• School Data

• Social Service Data

• Census Data

The Yonkers JCEC Database

Police Data

Juvenile Arrests

School Data

• Truancy

• Suspensions

• Serious School Incidents

• Special Education Status

Social Service Data

Foster Care

Census Data

• Gender

• Age

• High Poverty Census Tracts (>20%)

The Pyramid of Risk

4333,893All Youth Aged 7-15

7517,168Males Aged 7-15

1076,614Aged 10-14, High Poverty

3621709Grades 7-8, 20+ Absences

3824690Grades 1-12, 3-Day Suspension

4941170Aged 11-13, Arrested in 2003

1286141Grades 6-8, 20+ Absences AND 3-Day Suspension

# Arrests (Per 100, 3 Years)

# Arrested (Per 100, 3 Years)

Group Size

Risk Factor

Recommendations for Providers

1. Target the Highest Risk-Groups

HOW?

Use the Pyramid of Risk

2. But AVOID CREATING GANGS!

HOW?

Provide One-On-One Services

Mentoring

Functional Family Therapy

Scatter in Pro-Social Groups

Recommendations for Providers

3. Track Arrests (The Ultimate Outcome Measure)

HOW?

Preserve Confidentiality

Obtain Parental Consent

Give Program Participant Names to Police

Get Back ONLY Aggregate Number of Arrests

Recommendations for Providers

4. Use Yonkers Data as “Estimated Baseline”

HOW?

See “Sample Program Outcomes Form”

Recommendations for Providers

Recommendations for Providers

5. Estimate Cost Per Arrest Prevented

HOW?

Calculate Yonkers Baseline for Your Group

Compare Your Results to Estimated Baseline

Calculate Estimated Number of Arrests Prevented

Divide Costs By Number of Arrests Prevented

Recommendations for Providers

1. Target the Highest-Risk Groups

2. But AVOID CREATING GANGS

3. Track Arrests

4. Use Yonkers Data as “Estimated Baseline”

5. Estimate Cost Per Arrest Prevented

Recommendations for Funders

1. Target the Highest-Risk Groups

2. Measure % of High-Risk Groups Now Served

3. Make Funded Programs Report Arrest Rate

4. Compare Arrest Rates Across Similar Programs

5. Use Yonkers Data as Estimated Baseline

6. Estimate Cost Per Arrest Prevented

5. Join PD&D’s Proposed Research Project

Questions