Changes Alarm, Time Disarms
Ethnic Context and the Political Demography of Anti-Immigration
Eric Kaufmann, Birkbeck [email protected]; twitter: @epkaufm;
web: sneps.net;
1855
1860
1865
1870
1875
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Catholic %, Scotland, 1855-2001
% C
atho
lic
Scottish Response to Catholic Growth, 1920s-50s
• 1923: the Church of Scotland's Church and Nation committee issues report entitled The Menace of the Irish Race to our Scottish Nationality
• 1932: 'We are losing some of the best of our race stock by migration and their place is being taken by those whom whatever their merits, are not Scottish' - novelist John Buchan at Parliament in November 1932
• 1952: the Church of Scotland's Church and Nation committee condemns Irish Catholics for displacing the 'native Scots population' from industrial Scotland and derided them as a 'compact community largely of alien origin' (Devine 2008)
Amber Valley
Amber Valley
Lincoln
Derby
Lincoln
Amber Valley
DerbyAmber ValleyDerby
DerbyAmber Valley
BassetlawLincoln
Derby
Amber Valley
LincolnNorth Hertfordshire
Thurrock
Basildon
Basildon
Thurrock
Southend On SeaSouthend On SeaNorth Hertfordshire
HertsmereEpping Forest
Southend On SeaBasildon
Southend On Sea
Basildon
Basildon
Epping Forest
Basildon
Colchester
Southend On SeaThurrock
Epping ForestRochfordSouthend On SeaBasildonThurrock
Rochford
Basildon
Southend On Sea
Basildon
North HertfordshireIpswich
Thurrock
BasildonBasildon
Thurrock
Southend On SeaThurrock
Thurrock
Thurrock
Basildon
Hertsmere
Thurrock
Basildon
Thurrock
Southend On Sea
Southend On SeaSouthend On Sea
Southend On SeaSouthend On Sea
Thurrock
Rochford
Southend On SeaSouthend On SeaSouthend On Sea
Rochford
Southend On Sea
Epping Forest
Thurrock
Thurrock
Basildon
ThurrockStevenage
Thurrock
Richmond Upon ThamesEnfield
Hounslow
Barking and Dagenham
Bexley
Barking and DagenhamHounslow
Bexley Enfield
Hillingdon
IslingtonBexleyBromley
Greenwich
GreenwichBexley
Barking and Dagenham
Richmond Upon Thames
Hounslow
Croydon
HounslowSutton
Bexley
Bexley
Bexley
Greenwich
Croydon
Barking and Dagenham
MertonHavering
Redbridge
Enfield
BromleyMerton
Merton
SuttonBexley
Bexley
Barnet
HillingdonMerton
Croydon
Barking and Dagenham
Barking and Dagenham
Hounslow
Tower Hamlets
Tower Hamlets
Barking and Dagenham
HaveringTower Hamlets
Bromley
Barking and Dagenham
Bexley
Barking and Dagenham
Bexley
Camden
Tower Hamlets
GreenwichBexley
Barking and Dagenham
Bexley
Bexley
Croydon
Barking and Dagenham
Croydon
Greenwich
BexleyGreenwich
Barking and Dagenham
Bexley
Enfield
Sutton RedbridgeSutton
Hillingdon
WandsworthBexley
Havering
GreenwichBexleyBexley
GreenwichGreenwich
Redbridge
Barking and Dagenham
Bexley
Bexley
Southwark
Greenwich
Redbridge
Greenwich
CamdenCroydon
HaveringMerton
Hounslow
Greenwich
Barking and Dagenham
Croydon
Redbridge
Barking and DagenhamEaling
HillingdonEaling
Camden
Barking and DagenhamBarking and Dagenham
South Tyneside
Sunderland
GatesheadNewcastle Upon Tyne
South TynesideHartlepool
Newcastle Upon Tyne
Newcastle Upon Tyne
Newcastle Upon TyneNorth Tyneside
South Tyneside
South Tyneside
North Tyneside
GatesheadSouth Tyneside
Newcastle Upon Tyne
SunderlandGatesheadSouth TynesideNewcastle Upon TyneGatesheadSunderland
Newcastle Upon Tyne
South TynesideSouth Tyneside
Newcastle Upon Tyne
SunderlandNorth Tyneside GatesheadHartlepoolSouth TynesideGateshead Newcastle Upon TyneNewcastle Upon TyneSouth TynesideNewcastle Upon TyneNewcastle Upon TyneGateshead
South Tyneside
Newcastle Upon Tyne
Sunderland
Newcastle Upon Tyne
Newcastle Upon Tyne
SunderlandGatesheadSunderlandSunderland
South Tyneside
Newcastle Upon TyneGateshead
North Tyneside
SunderlandGateshead Newcastle Upon TyneGatesheadSunderlandSunderland
Newcastle Upon TyneNewcastle Upon Tyne
Gateshead
Newcastle Upon Tyne
South TynesideGatesheadSouth TynesideSouth Tyneside
GatesheadSouth TynesideSunderland
HartlepoolSouth TynesideNewcastle Upon Tyne
Newcastle Upon Tyne
GatesheadNewcastle Upon Tyne
HartlepoolSouth Tyneside
ManchesterCarlisle
Pendle
WiganWiganSt Helens
SeftonSefton
BuryBury
Bury
Tameside
StockportSt Helens
Liverpool
BurnleyManchester
Wigan
Pendle
Wigan
Stockport
Wigan Rochdale
Wirral
Manchester
Tameside
Stockport
Tameside
Liverpool
Pendle
Burnley
Burnley
Knowsley
WarringtonBury
Pendle
St HelensStockportCarlisle
Bolton
Bury
HaltonTamesideSt HelensCarlisle
BoltonWigan
Bolton
Stockport
Manchester
Sefton
Wigan
Rochdale
Sefton
Tameside
WiganSefton
CarlisleCarlisle
Burnley
LiverpoolSefton
TamesideCarlisle
Burnley
Carlisle
Tameside
St Helens
SeftonWirral Liverpool
Tameside
WiganWiganWigan
Tameside
WiganLiverpool
Manchester
Wigan
BuryTameside
Tameside
BuryTameside
SeftonWigan
Burnley
Rochdale
BuryWirral
Burnley
LiverpoolWirral
Burnley ManchesterTamesideBoltonSt Helens
Wigan
Wigan
Wigan
Pendle
Oldham
ManchesterLiverpoolRochdale
WiganWigan
Tameside
Burnley
Bury
WirralStockport
Pendle
StockportCarlisleSt Helens
Manchester
Stockport
St Helens Carlisle
Pendle
TamesideBury
Pendle
Sefton
HyndburnStockport
LiverpoolReigate and BansteadHastings
Hastings
Crawley
CrawleyMilton Keynes
Reigate and Banstead
Crawley
Basingstoke and DeaneCrawley
Crawley
Hastings
Crawley
HastingsBristol
SwindonBristol Swindon
BristolBristolPlymouthSwindonBristolBristol Swindon
Bristol
BristolBristolBristolSwindon
BristolExeterBristolSolihull
Nuneaton and BedworthSolihullCoventry
BirminghamBirmingham
Coventry
BirminghamBirmingham
Nuneaton and Bedworth
Solihull
Birmingham
Birmingham
SolihullSandwell
Solihull Sandwell
Nuneaton and BedworthSandwell
Birmingham
Birmingham
Solihull
SandwellCoventry
Birmingham
Birmingham Coventry
Sandwell
Solihull
BirminghamWorcester
WorcesterRedditch
Coventry
Walsall
Coventry
SandwellWolverhampton
Worcester Wolverhampton
Worcester
SolihullDudleyBirmingham
Sandwell
Nuneaton and Bedworth
Birmingham
Sandwell
Coventry
Coventry
Cannock ChaseNuneaton and BedworthBirmingham
Sandwell
Solihull
Nuneaton and Bedworth
Sandwell
Birmingham
Sandwell
BirminghamCoventry
Dudley
WolverhamptonSandwell
Birmingham
Coventry
Solihull
Birmingham
Solihull
SandwellNuneaton and Bedworth
Solihull
Sandwell
Wolverhampton
SolihullWalsall
Sandwell
Nuneaton and Bedworth
Sandwell
BirminghamWorcester Sandwell
Birmingham
Dudley
BirminghamSolihull
Coventry
Solihull BirminghamSandwell
Sandwell
Coventry
Sandwell
Nuneaton and BedworthWorcesterCannock Chase
Sandwell
Birmingham
Nuneaton and Bedworth
Nuneaton and BedworthCoventry
Birmingham
BirminghamBirmingham
Sandwell
SolihullSandwell BirminghamCoventry
Birmingham
Nuneaton and Bedworth
Sandwell
Birmingham
Birmingham
Barnsley
Leeds
BarnsleyWakefield
SheffieldBarnsley Leeds
Doncaster
Leeds
Harrogate
Kirklees
Leeds Leeds
Kirklees
Sheffield
Wakefield
North East LincolnshireLeeds
Calderdale
SheffieldSheffield
RotherhamWakefieldKirklees
Leeds
Leeds
HarrogateKirklees
Barnsley
BarnsleyBarnsleyBarnsley
KirkleesCalderdale
LeedsKirklees
Wakefield
Leeds
Leeds
BarnsleyWakefield
Wakefield
WakefieldDudley
Kingston Upon HullKirklees
WakefieldWakefield
Doncaster
KirkleesSheffield
Leeds
Rotherham
Barnsley
Wakefield
RotherhamWakefield
BarnsleyLeedsSheffield
Sheffield
WakefieldRotherham
Kirklees
Leeds
Leeds
Kirklees
LeedsSheffield
Barnsley
Barnsley
Rotherham
Leeds
Doncaster
Leeds
RotherhamDoncaster
BarnsleyRotherham
Leeds
Leeds
BarnsleyLeedsLeeds
Calderdale
Barnsley
KirkleesBarnsley
Calderdale
Leeds
Barnsley
Leeds
Rotherham
Wakefield
Sheffield
SheffieldKingston Upon HullLeedsCalderdaleBarnsley
Leeds
SheffieldWakefield
Leeds
Sheffield
Kirklees
Kirklees
BarnsleyWakefield
Rotherham
WakefieldBarnsley Wakefield
Leeds
CalderdaleSheffield
LeedsRotherham
Leeds
Wakefield
Kirklees
Kirklees
Rotherham
KirkleesLeeds
WakefieldBarnsley
010
2030
4050
BN
P S
hare
of V
ote
0 1000 2000 3000 4000White share 2001 x change in minority share 2001-11
ward (labeled by Local Authority) Fitted values
BNP share of white vote, 2010-12 Local Elections
MC1/ML1
MC4/ML6
MC7/ML11
MC10/ML16
MC13/ML21
MC16/ML26
MC19/ML31
MC22/NL36
MC25/ML41
MC28/ML46
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
Predicted Probability of Having Voted UKIP in 2014 European Elections (BES wave 2)
Minority Change (LA) Minority Level (LA)
MC-20/ML0
MC-16/ML5
MC-12/ML10
MC-8/
ML15
MC-4/
ML20
MC0/ML25
MC4/ML30
MC8/ML35
MC12/ML40
MC16/ML45
MC20/ML50
0.000
0.005
0.010
0.015
0.020
0.025
Predicted Probability of UKIP support compared to Ward Ethnic Changes and Levels
(Understanding Society waves 1-4, 2009-13)
Minority Change (ward) Minority Level (ward)
Prob
abili
ty o
f UKI
P su
ppor
t
MC-4/ML0 MC0/ML5 MC4/ML10 MC8/ML15 MC12/ML20
MC16/ML25
MC20/ML30
MC24/ML35
MC28/ML40
MC32/ML45
MC36/ML50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
Predicted Probability of wanting immigration reduced, White UK-born only, 2009-11 (Citizenship Surveys)
Minority Change (ward) Minority Level (ward)
Freely available (CPS website & http://www.demos.co.uk/publications/changingplaces)
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