Changes Alarm, Time Disarms Ethnic Context and the Political Demography of Anti-Immigration Eric...

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Changes Alarm, Time Disarms Ethnic Context and the Political Demography of Anti- Immigration Eric Kaufmann, Birkbeck College [email protected] ; twitter: @epkaufm; web: sneps.net;

Transcript of Changes Alarm, Time Disarms Ethnic Context and the Political Demography of Anti-Immigration Eric...

Page 1: Changes Alarm, Time Disarms Ethnic Context and the Political Demography of Anti-Immigration Eric Kaufmann, Birkbeck College

Changes Alarm, Time Disarms

Ethnic Context and the Political Demography of Anti-Immigration

Eric Kaufmann, Birkbeck [email protected]; twitter: @epkaufm;

web: sneps.net;

mailto:[email protected]
Page 2: Changes Alarm, Time Disarms Ethnic Context and the Political Demography of Anti-Immigration Eric Kaufmann, Birkbeck College
Page 3: Changes Alarm, Time Disarms Ethnic Context and the Political Demography of Anti-Immigration Eric Kaufmann, Birkbeck College

1855

1860

1865

1870

1875

1880

1885

1890

1895

1900

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Catholic %, Scotland, 1855-2001

% C

atho

lic

Page 4: Changes Alarm, Time Disarms Ethnic Context and the Political Demography of Anti-Immigration Eric Kaufmann, Birkbeck College

Scottish Response to Catholic Growth, 1920s-50s

• 1923: the Church of Scotland's Church and Nation committee issues report entitled The Menace of the Irish Race to our Scottish Nationality

• 1932: 'We are losing some of the best of our race stock by migration and their place is being taken by those whom whatever their merits, are not Scottish' - novelist John Buchan at Parliament in November 1932

• 1952: the Church of Scotland's Church and Nation committee condemns Irish Catholics for displacing the 'native Scots population' from industrial Scotland and derided them as a 'compact community largely of alien origin' (Devine 2008)

Page 5: Changes Alarm, Time Disarms Ethnic Context and the Political Demography of Anti-Immigration Eric Kaufmann, Birkbeck College
Page 6: Changes Alarm, Time Disarms Ethnic Context and the Political Demography of Anti-Immigration Eric Kaufmann, Birkbeck College

Amber Valley

Amber Valley

Lincoln

Derby

Lincoln

Amber Valley

DerbyAmber ValleyDerby

DerbyAmber Valley

BassetlawLincoln

Derby

Amber Valley

LincolnNorth Hertfordshire

Thurrock

Basildon

Basildon

Thurrock

Southend On SeaSouthend On SeaNorth Hertfordshire

HertsmereEpping Forest

Southend On SeaBasildon

Southend On Sea

Basildon

Basildon

Epping Forest

Basildon

Colchester

Southend On SeaThurrock

Epping ForestRochfordSouthend On SeaBasildonThurrock

Rochford

Basildon

Southend On Sea

Basildon

North HertfordshireIpswich

Thurrock

BasildonBasildon

Thurrock

Southend On SeaThurrock

Thurrock

Thurrock

Basildon

Hertsmere

Thurrock

Basildon

Thurrock

Southend On Sea

Southend On SeaSouthend On Sea

Southend On SeaSouthend On Sea

Thurrock

Rochford

Southend On SeaSouthend On SeaSouthend On Sea

Rochford

Southend On Sea

Epping Forest

Thurrock

Thurrock

Basildon

ThurrockStevenage

Thurrock

Richmond Upon ThamesEnfield

Hounslow

Barking and Dagenham

Bexley

Barking and DagenhamHounslow

Bexley Enfield

Hillingdon

IslingtonBexleyBromley

Greenwich

GreenwichBexley

Barking and Dagenham

Richmond Upon Thames

Hounslow

Croydon

HounslowSutton

Bexley

Bexley

Bexley

Greenwich

Croydon

Barking and Dagenham

MertonHavering

Redbridge

Enfield

BromleyMerton

Merton

SuttonBexley

Bexley

Barnet

HillingdonMerton

Croydon

Barking and Dagenham

Barking and Dagenham

Hounslow

Tower Hamlets

Tower Hamlets

Barking and Dagenham

HaveringTower Hamlets

Bromley

Barking and Dagenham

Bexley

Barking and Dagenham

Bexley

Camden

Tower Hamlets

GreenwichBexley

Barking and Dagenham

Bexley

Bexley

Croydon

Barking and Dagenham

Croydon

Greenwich

BexleyGreenwich

Barking and Dagenham

Bexley

Enfield

Sutton RedbridgeSutton

Hillingdon

WandsworthBexley

Havering

GreenwichBexleyBexley

GreenwichGreenwich

Redbridge

Barking and Dagenham

Bexley

Bexley

Southwark

Greenwich

Redbridge

Greenwich

CamdenCroydon

HaveringMerton

Hounslow

Greenwich

Barking and Dagenham

Croydon

Redbridge

Barking and DagenhamEaling

HillingdonEaling

Camden

Barking and DagenhamBarking and Dagenham

South Tyneside

Sunderland

GatesheadNewcastle Upon Tyne

South TynesideHartlepool

Newcastle Upon Tyne

Newcastle Upon Tyne

Newcastle Upon TyneNorth Tyneside

South Tyneside

South Tyneside

North Tyneside

GatesheadSouth Tyneside

Newcastle Upon Tyne

SunderlandGatesheadSouth TynesideNewcastle Upon TyneGatesheadSunderland

Newcastle Upon Tyne

South TynesideSouth Tyneside

Newcastle Upon Tyne

SunderlandNorth Tyneside GatesheadHartlepoolSouth TynesideGateshead Newcastle Upon TyneNewcastle Upon TyneSouth TynesideNewcastle Upon TyneNewcastle Upon TyneGateshead

South Tyneside

Newcastle Upon Tyne

Sunderland

Newcastle Upon Tyne

Newcastle Upon Tyne

SunderlandGatesheadSunderlandSunderland

South Tyneside

Newcastle Upon TyneGateshead

North Tyneside

SunderlandGateshead Newcastle Upon TyneGatesheadSunderlandSunderland

Newcastle Upon TyneNewcastle Upon Tyne

Gateshead

Newcastle Upon Tyne

South TynesideGatesheadSouth TynesideSouth Tyneside

GatesheadSouth TynesideSunderland

HartlepoolSouth TynesideNewcastle Upon Tyne

Newcastle Upon Tyne

GatesheadNewcastle Upon Tyne

HartlepoolSouth Tyneside

ManchesterCarlisle

Pendle

WiganWiganSt Helens

SeftonSefton

BuryBury

Bury

Tameside

StockportSt Helens

Liverpool

BurnleyManchester

Wigan

Pendle

Wigan

Stockport

Wigan Rochdale

Wirral

Manchester

Tameside

Stockport

Tameside

Liverpool

Pendle

Burnley

Burnley

Knowsley

WarringtonBury

Pendle

St HelensStockportCarlisle

Bolton

Bury

HaltonTamesideSt HelensCarlisle

BoltonWigan

Bolton

Stockport

Manchester

Sefton

Wigan

Rochdale

Sefton

Tameside

WiganSefton

CarlisleCarlisle

Burnley

LiverpoolSefton

TamesideCarlisle

Burnley

Carlisle

Tameside

St Helens

SeftonWirral Liverpool

Tameside

WiganWiganWigan

Tameside

WiganLiverpool

Manchester

Wigan

BuryTameside

Tameside

BuryTameside

SeftonWigan

Burnley

Rochdale

BuryWirral

Burnley

LiverpoolWirral

Burnley ManchesterTamesideBoltonSt Helens

Wigan

Wigan

Wigan

Pendle

Oldham

ManchesterLiverpoolRochdale

WiganWigan

Tameside

Burnley

Bury

WirralStockport

Pendle

StockportCarlisleSt Helens

Manchester

Stockport

St Helens Carlisle

Pendle

TamesideBury

Pendle

Sefton

HyndburnStockport

LiverpoolReigate and BansteadHastings

Hastings

Crawley

CrawleyMilton Keynes

Reigate and Banstead

Crawley

Basingstoke and DeaneCrawley

Crawley

Hastings

Crawley

HastingsBristol

SwindonBristol Swindon

BristolBristolPlymouthSwindonBristolBristol Swindon

Bristol

BristolBristolBristolSwindon

BristolExeterBristolSolihull

Nuneaton and BedworthSolihullCoventry

BirminghamBirmingham

Coventry

BirminghamBirmingham

Nuneaton and Bedworth

Solihull

Birmingham

Birmingham

SolihullSandwell

Solihull Sandwell

Nuneaton and BedworthSandwell

Birmingham

Birmingham

Solihull

SandwellCoventry

Birmingham

Birmingham Coventry

Sandwell

Solihull

BirminghamWorcester

WorcesterRedditch

Coventry

Walsall

Coventry

SandwellWolverhampton

Worcester Wolverhampton

Worcester

SolihullDudleyBirmingham

Sandwell

Nuneaton and Bedworth

Birmingham

Sandwell

Coventry

Coventry

Cannock ChaseNuneaton and BedworthBirmingham

Sandwell

Solihull

Nuneaton and Bedworth

Sandwell

Birmingham

Sandwell

BirminghamCoventry

Dudley

WolverhamptonSandwell

Birmingham

Coventry

Solihull

Birmingham

Solihull

SandwellNuneaton and Bedworth

Solihull

Sandwell

Wolverhampton

SolihullWalsall

Sandwell

Nuneaton and Bedworth

Sandwell

BirminghamWorcester Sandwell

Birmingham

Dudley

BirminghamSolihull

Coventry

Solihull BirminghamSandwell

Sandwell

Coventry

Sandwell

Nuneaton and BedworthWorcesterCannock Chase

Sandwell

Birmingham

Nuneaton and Bedworth

Nuneaton and BedworthCoventry

Birmingham

BirminghamBirmingham

Sandwell

SolihullSandwell BirminghamCoventry

Birmingham

Nuneaton and Bedworth

Sandwell

Birmingham

Birmingham

Barnsley

Leeds

BarnsleyWakefield

SheffieldBarnsley Leeds

Doncaster

Leeds

Harrogate

Kirklees

Leeds Leeds

Kirklees

Sheffield

Wakefield

North East LincolnshireLeeds

Calderdale

SheffieldSheffield

RotherhamWakefieldKirklees

Leeds

Leeds

HarrogateKirklees

Barnsley

BarnsleyBarnsleyBarnsley

KirkleesCalderdale

LeedsKirklees

Wakefield

Leeds

Leeds

BarnsleyWakefield

Wakefield

WakefieldDudley

Kingston Upon HullKirklees

WakefieldWakefield

Doncaster

KirkleesSheffield

Leeds

Rotherham

Barnsley

Wakefield

RotherhamWakefield

BarnsleyLeedsSheffield

Sheffield

WakefieldRotherham

Kirklees

Leeds

Leeds

Kirklees

LeedsSheffield

Barnsley

Barnsley

Rotherham

Leeds

Doncaster

Leeds

RotherhamDoncaster

BarnsleyRotherham

Leeds

Leeds

BarnsleyLeedsLeeds

Calderdale

Barnsley

KirkleesBarnsley

Calderdale

Leeds

Barnsley

Leeds

Rotherham

Wakefield

Sheffield

SheffieldKingston Upon HullLeedsCalderdaleBarnsley

Leeds

SheffieldWakefield

Leeds

Sheffield

Kirklees

Kirklees

BarnsleyWakefield

Rotherham

WakefieldBarnsley Wakefield

Leeds

CalderdaleSheffield

LeedsRotherham

Leeds

Wakefield

Kirklees

Kirklees

Rotherham

KirkleesLeeds

WakefieldBarnsley

010

2030

4050

BN

P S

hare

of V

ote

0 1000 2000 3000 4000White share 2001 x change in minority share 2001-11

ward (labeled by Local Authority) Fitted values

BNP share of white vote, 2010-12 Local Elections

Page 7: Changes Alarm, Time Disarms Ethnic Context and the Political Demography of Anti-Immigration Eric Kaufmann, Birkbeck College

MC1/ML1

MC4/ML6

MC7/ML11

MC10/ML16

MC13/ML21

MC16/ML26

MC19/ML31

MC22/NL36

MC25/ML41

MC28/ML46

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

Predicted Probability of Having Voted UKIP in 2014 European Elections (BES wave 2)

Minority Change (LA) Minority Level (LA)

Page 8: Changes Alarm, Time Disarms Ethnic Context and the Political Demography of Anti-Immigration Eric Kaufmann, Birkbeck College

MC-20/ML0

MC-16/ML5

MC-12/ML10

MC-8/

ML15

MC-4/

ML20

MC0/ML25

MC4/ML30

MC8/ML35

MC12/ML40

MC16/ML45

MC20/ML50

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

Predicted Probability of UKIP support compared to Ward Ethnic Changes and Levels

(Understanding Society waves 1-4, 2009-13)

Minority Change (ward) Minority Level (ward)

Prob

abili

ty o

f UKI

P su

ppor

t

Page 9: Changes Alarm, Time Disarms Ethnic Context and the Political Demography of Anti-Immigration Eric Kaufmann, Birkbeck College

MC-4/ML0 MC0/ML5 MC4/ML10 MC8/ML15 MC12/ML20

MC16/ML25

MC20/ML30

MC24/ML35

MC28/ML40

MC32/ML45

MC36/ML50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

Predicted Probability of wanting immigration reduced, White UK-born only, 2009-11 (Citizenship Surveys)

Minority Change (ward) Minority Level (ward)

Page 10: Changes Alarm, Time Disarms Ethnic Context and the Political Demography of Anti-Immigration Eric Kaufmann, Birkbeck College

Freely available (CPS website & http://www.demos.co.uk/publications/changingplaces)


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