Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 1
Perception survey Catalonia / Spain
MAIN RESULTS
Research by Universitat Oberta de Catalunya. Director: Miquel Strubell (Identi.Cat research group)
Field work and data analysis: Instituto DYM
With the support of the Centre of Contemporary Studies of Catalonia (CETC)
NOTE: this document has been translated by volunteers. If in doubt refer to the Catalan original file. Ref.: 09472183
November 2009
Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 2
REFERENDUM REACTIONS
INDEPENDENT CATALONIA SCENARIO
PERCEPTION OF INDEPENDENCE
TECHNICAL FILE
FULFILLMENT AND TIMING FOR INDEPENDENCE
DEMOCRACY, LAW AND SELF-DETERMINATION
TECHNICAL FILE
DEMOCRACY, LAW AND SELF-DETERMINATION
Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 3
Technical FileData collection Interviews with Computer Aided Technology Inc (C.A.T.I.).
Fieldwork dates From September 14 to October 2, 2009.
Questionnaire Designed by the working team, and thereafter revised and adpated by Instituto DYM to C.A.T.I. methodology
Language preference Questions have been formulated in Catalan or Spanish according to preference of interviewed person.
Universe Population between15 and 74 (both included).
Span Catalonia
Sample selection Random sampling stratified by vegueries (regions) and habitat size. The person to be interviewed within the household was chosen randomly among household members, according to established quotas.
Quotas Quotas crossed by region (vegueries), habitat, gender and age, proportional to actual population.
Final Sample 2614 interviews
Sample error margin +2,0% calculated for a reliability level of 95,5%, under the assumption of maximum statistical indetermination (p=q=50%) according to the sample error formula for infinite universes.
Data weighting The weighting of interviews have been equated to the established distribution, so as to correct little deviations. Extra weighting has been introduced according to place of birth, equating it to actual proportion in present demographic data.
Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 4
REFERENDUM REACTIONS
INDEPENDENT CATALONIA SCENARIO
PERCEPTION OF INDEPENDENCE
TECHNICAL FILE
FULFILLMENT AND TIMING FOR INDEPENDENCE
DEMOCRACY, LAW AND SELF-DETERMINATION
Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 5
DEMOCRACY, LAW AND SELF-DETERMINATION
In case a democratic decision clashed against the current laws, which do you think should prevail?
Base: Total interviews (2.614)NC = No Choice NA= No Answer
Current laws; 22%
Democratic Principles
67%
NC; 10%
NA; 1%
DEMOCRACY, LAW AND SELF-DETERMINATION
Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 6
Do you think the peoples of the world have the right of self-determination, ie to choose freely and democratically their
own political future?
Base: Total interviews (2.614)NC = No Choice NA= No Answer
SELF-DETERMINATION IN GENERAL
NC1,1%
In general terms no
6,5%
It depends3,5%
In general terms yes
88,9%
Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 7
Do the peoples of the world have the right of self-determination, ie. deciding their
own political future freely and democratically?
Base: Total interviews (2.614)NC = No Choice NA= No Answer
SELF-DETERMINATION IN GENERAL
And in the case of Catalonia, does it have the right of deciding freely and democratically its own political future?
Base: Total interviews (2.614)NC = No Choice NA= No Answer
Yes 82,6%
No 14,4%
NC 2,6%NA 0,4%
NC1,1%
In general terms no
6,5%
It depends3,5% In general
terms yes88,9%
Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 8
REFERENDUM REACTIONS
INDEPENDENT CATALONIA SCENARIO
PERCEPTION OF INDEPENDENCE
TECHNICAL FILE
FULFILLMENT AND TIMING FOR INDEPENDENCE
DEMOCRACY, LAW AND SELF-DETERMINATION
Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 9
In a democratic Referendum to decide the independence of Catalonia, what would you do?
Base: Total interviews (2.614)
NA1,4%NC
5,8%
Abstention /refrain from
voting24,6%
Vote against 17,8%
Vote for 50,3%
REFERENDUM BEHAVIOUR
Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 10
Base: Total interviews (2.614)
In a democratic Referendum to decide the independence of Catalonia, what would you do?
REFERENDUM BEHAVIOUR
Percentages voting for independence
20,9
25,947,2
26,6
19,846,3
25,3
11,3
56,3
19,311,9
63,4
19,4
9,164,2 18,8
8,864,5
Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 12
Base: Total interviews (2.614)
57,1
32,644,8
53,3
26,2
25,4 11,8
21,1 24,3 30,7
5,5 8,4 4,8 3,3
14,931,1
Born in Catalonia In the rest of Spain in the rest of Europe In the rest of the World
No answer
No choice
Abstention /refrain fromvotingVote against
Vote for
In a democratic Referendum to decide the independence of Catalonia, what would you do?
REFERENDUM BEHAVIOUR
BY PLACE OF BIRTH
Over average Under average
Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 13
Which of the following motives would you allege to vote for / vote against / abstain in a democratic referendum to decide Catalan independence?
Base: Vote for (1.376)
MOTIVES BEHIND REFERENDUM BEHAVIOUR
MOTIVES TO VOTE FOR
62,3
65,7
0,1
0,5
0,9
29,6
56,4
58,6
No answer
No choice
None of the above
Weariness of Spain
Language andcultural reasons
Feelings or beliefs
Economic motives
Peaceful/democraticreasons
Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 14
60,8
29,3
25,9
25,7
5,8
0,9No choice
None of theabove
Scared ofconflict
Laws do notallow it
Economicallyunfeasible
Feelings orbeliefs
Which of the following motives would you allege to vote for / vote against / abstain in a democratic referendum to decide Catalan independence?
Base: Vote for (1.376) Base: Vote against (438)
MOTIVES BEHIND REFERENDUM BEHAVIOUR
MOTIVES TO VOTE FOR MOTIVES TO VOTE AGAINST
62,3
65,7
0,1
0,5
0,9
29,6
56,4
58,6
No answer
No choice
None of the above
Weariness of Spain
Language andcultural reasons
Feelings or beliefs
Economic motives
Peaceful/democraticreasons
Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 15
18,5
20,6
25,7
29,2
38,4
0,4
3,2
13,9
No answer
No choice
None of theabove
Economicallyunfeasible
Laws do notallow it
Scared ofconflict
Feelings orbeliefs
Not mybusiness
Which of the following motives would you allege to vote for / vote against / abstain in a democratic referendum to decide Catalan independence?
Base: Vote for (1.376) Base: Vote against (438) Base: Abstention (607)
MOTIVES BEHIND REFERENDUM BEHAVIOUR
MOTIVES TO VOTE FOR MOTIVES TO VOTE AGAINST MOTIVES TO ABSTAIN
62,3
65,7
0,1
0,5
0,9
29,6
56,4
58,6
No answer
No choice
None of the above
Weariness of Spain
Language andcultural reasons
Feelings or beliefs
Economic motives
Peaceful/democraticreasons 60,8
29,3
25,9
25,7
5,8
0,9No choice
None of theabove
Scared ofconflict
Laws do notallow it
Economicallyunfeasible
Feelings orbeliefs
Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 16
REFERENDUM REACTIONS
INDEPENDENT CATALONIA SCENARIO
PERCEPTION OF INDEPENDENCE
TECHNICAL FILE
FULFILLMENT AND TIMING FOR INDEPENDENCE
DEMOCRACY, LAW AND SELF-DETERMINATION
Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 17
30,4% 40,6% 13,1% 15,2% 0,6%
54,7% 27,6% 9,7%7,8%
0,3%
64,6% 29,0% 3,8%2,4%
0,2%Do you think the situation of
Catalan language and culture...
Do you think social welfare ofCatalans...
Do you think immigrationpolicies...
Would improve Would stay the sameWould worsen NCNA
Base: Total interviews (2.614)
In the case Catalonia became independent...
INDEPENDENT CATALONIA SCENARIO
Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
A favor En contra Abstenció
81,3
37,8
58,4
16,9
59,8
37,8
1,8 2,4 3,8
Referendum behaviour
NS/NC
En desacord
D’acord
INDEPENDENT CATALONIA SCENARIO
Do you agree with the expression: “An independent Catalonia could keep good
relations with Spain?”
Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 19
For; 63,6%Against; 17,6%
No choice; 1,2% No answer; 0,4%Indifferent; 17,1%
NS8,1%
No20,8%
Si71,1%
Base: Total interviews (2.614)
EUROPEAN UNION
Would you be for or against Catalonia being part of the European Union as any other
member state?
Base: Total entrevistes (2.614)
Pensa que una Catalunya independent que formés part de la Unió Europea defensaria
millor els interessos dels catalans que en la situació actual?
INDEPENDENT CATALONIA SCENARIO
Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 20
NC8,1%
No20,8%
Yes71,1%
Base: Total interviews (2.614)
EUROPEAN UNION
Would you be for or against Catalonia being part of the European Union as any other
member state?
Base: Total interviews (2.614)
Do you think that an independent Catalonia which were part of the European Union would
sustain Catalan interests better?
INDEPENDENT CATALONIA SCENARIO
For; 63,6%Against; 17,6%
No choice; 1,2% No answer; 0,4%Indifferent; 17,1%
Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 21
REFERENDUM REACTIONS
INDEPENDENT CATALONIA SCENARIO
PERCEPTION OF INDEPENDENCE
TECHNICAL FILE
FULFILLMENT AND TIMING FOR INDEPENDENCE
DEMOCRACY, LAW AND SELF-DETERMINATION
Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 22
Would you say the majority of citizens of Catalonia are rather in favour or against its independence?
Base: Total interviews (2.614)
PERCEPTION OF INDEPENDENCE
NA0,5%NC
8,3%
Rather against34,4% Half and half
13,4%
Rather in favour 43,4%
Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 23
57,2
16,938,2 29,9
13,4
10,7
13,020,5
63,538,7 33,9
6,9 8,2 9,4 15,022,2
Perception of those votingfor
Perception of those votingagainst
Perception of thoseabstaining
Perception of NC/NA
NA
NC
Rather infavour
Half and half
Rather against
Would you say the majority of citizens of Catalonia are rather in favour or against its independence?
Base: Total interviews (2.614)
PERCEPTION OF INDEPENDENCE
DISTRIBUTION ACCORDING TO REFERENDUM BEHAVIOUR
Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 24
REFERENDUM REACTIONS
INDEPENDENT CATALONIA SCENARIO
PERCEPTION OF INDEPENDENCE
TECHNICAL FILE
FULFILLMENT AND TIMING FOR INDEPENDENCE
DEMOCRACY, LAW AND SELF-DETERMINATION
Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 25
Base: Total interviews (2.614)
Do you think Catalonia will become independent some day?
NA0,1%
NC10,7%
No58,1%
Yes31,1%
FULFILLMENT AND TIMING FOR INDEPENDENCE
Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 26
DISTRIBUTION BY VEGUERIES OR REGIONSBase: Total interviews (2.614)
Do you think Catalonia will become independent some day?
FULFILLMENT AND TIMING FOR INDEPENDENCE
40.2
52.1
7.737.4
56.4
5.4
38.1
47.2
14.7
26.7
61.8
11.4
29.5
59,0
11.4
30.4
59.9
9.7
Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 27
28,1 29,8 28,750,2
63 55,6 51,442,1
8,7 14,6 19,9 7,70000,1
Born in Catalonia In the rest of Spain In the rest of Europe In the rest of the World
BIRTHPLACE DISTRIBUTION
Base: Total interviews (2.614)
Do you think Catalonia will become independent some day?
FULFILLMENT AND TIMING FOR INDEPENDENCE
Diagnòstic percepcions Catalunya – Espanya 28
When do you think Catalonia could become independent?
Base: will be independent some day (768)
TIMING FOR INDEPENDENCE
NA0,1%
NC4,1%
In the longer run41,9%
In the next 20 years41,8%
In the next 5 years12,1%
Top Related