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January 2015 CapitalInvestment & DrillingForecast Update
January 21, 2015
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Capital Investment in Canada
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
WCSB
Conventional
Oil Sands
$
billion
-40% -25%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2013 2014 2015
$
billion
Oil Sands
WCSB Conventional
-33%
2
2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015
Combined Capital Investment
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Total Wells Drilled in Western Canada
SourceCAPP. Based on Rig Release
E=estimate; F=forecast
0
4 000
8 000
12 000
16 000
20 000
24 000
28 000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015F
Dry/Susp.Gas
Oil
2014 E
= 10,500
2015 F
= 7,350
30% decrease in drilling in 2015
due to announced reductions in
capital investment
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Upstream
Oil & Gas
Auto
Manufacturing
Forestry
& Logging
Wheat
& Barley Uranium
Annual Revenues ($ Billions)Major Canadian Products Selling Industries
Impact of declining commodity prices in 2015
Source: ARC Financial & CAPP
Industry revenues down one third
from $150 billion in 2014 to $100 billion in 2015
WCSB capital investment down 33% ($23 billion)
from $69 billion in 2014 to $46 billion in 2015:
Well drilling down 30% (3,150 wells) from 2014
Oil and gas share of TSX down from 20% in 2014 to 12% in January 2015
2014
2015
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Short-term
2015/2016Western CanadianCrude Oil Forecast
UpdateJanuary 21, 2015
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Western Canada Conventional Production
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Canadian Oil Sands & Conventional Production
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thousand b/d 2014E 2015F 2016F
Total* 3,458 3,615 3,812
Conventional (including pentanes/condensate) 1,335 1,342 1,356
Conventional Light & Medium
Alberta
B.C
Saskatchewan
ManitobaN.W.T.
438
21
245
4511
440
21
248
4110
440
20
259
389
Conventional Heavy
Alberta
Saskatchewan
150
266
149
268
150
269
Pentanes/Condensate 159 165 171
Oil Sands (bitumen & upgraded) 2,123 2,273 2,456
Mining
In Situ
903
1,221
946
1,327
1,018
1,438
*Totals may not add up due to rounding
Est = Estimate for Q4
F = Forecast
January 2015 Update Annual ProductionWestern Canadian Crude Oil Production
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thousand b/d 2014 2015 2016
Total* +2 (66) (120)
Conventional (including pentanes/condensate) (15) (68) (64)
Conventional Light & Medium
Alberta
B.C
SaskatchewanManitoba
N.W.T.
(21)
+4
+3(6)
+1
(40)
5
(13)(11)
0
(46)
4
(3)(10)
0
Conventional Heavy
Alberta
Saskatchewan
(5)
0
(11)
(7)
(11)
(8)
Pentanes/Condensate +9 9 9
Oil Sands (bitumen & upgraded) 18 2 (56)Mining
In Situ
(50)
68
(56)
58
(75)
19
*Totals may not add up due to rounding
Est = Estimate for Q4
F = Forecast
January 2015 Update vs June 2014 ForecastWestern Canadian Crude Oil Production lower than forecast led by conventional
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