Capital Investment and Drilling.pdf

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January 2015 CapitalInvestment & DrillingForecast Update

January 21, 2015

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Capital Investment in Canada

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

WCSB

Conventional

Oil Sands

$

billion

-40% -25%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2013 2014 2015

$

billion

Oil Sands

WCSB Conventional

-33%

2

2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015

Combined Capital Investment


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Total Wells Drilled in Western Canada

SourceCAPP. Based on Rig Release

E=estimate; F=forecast

0

4 000

8 000

12 000

16 000

20 000

24 000

28 000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015F

Dry/Susp.Gas

Oil

2014 E

= 10,500

2015 F

= 7,350

30% decrease in drilling in 2015

due to announced reductions in

capital investment


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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Upstream

Oil & Gas

Auto

Manufacturing

Forestry

& Logging

Wheat

& Barley Uranium

Annual Revenues ($ Billions)Major Canadian Products Selling Industries

Impact of declining commodity prices in 2015

Source: ARC Financial & CAPP

Industry revenues down one third

from $150 billion in 2014 to $100 billion in 2015

WCSB capital investment down 33% ($23 billion)

from $69 billion in 2014 to $46 billion in 2015:

Well drilling down 30% (3,150 wells) from 2014

Oil and gas share of TSX down from 20% in 2014 to 12% in January 2015

2014

2015

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Short-term

2015/2016Western CanadianCrude Oil Forecast

UpdateJanuary 21, 2015

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Western Canada Conventional Production

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Canadian Oil Sands & Conventional Production

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thousand b/d 2014E 2015F 2016F

Total* 3,458 3,615 3,812

Conventional (including pentanes/condensate) 1,335 1,342 1,356

Conventional Light & Medium

Alberta

B.C

Saskatchewan

ManitobaN.W.T.

438

21

245

4511

440

21

248

4110

440

20

259

389

Conventional Heavy

Alberta

Saskatchewan

150

266

149

268

150

269

Pentanes/Condensate 159 165 171

Oil Sands (bitumen & upgraded) 2,123 2,273 2,456

Mining

In Situ

903

1,221

946

1,327

1,018

1,438

*Totals may not add up due to rounding

Est = Estimate for Q4

F = Forecast

January 2015 Update Annual ProductionWestern Canadian Crude Oil Production

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thousand b/d 2014 2015 2016

Total* +2 (66) (120)

Conventional (including pentanes/condensate) (15) (68) (64)

Conventional Light & Medium

Alberta

B.C

SaskatchewanManitoba

N.W.T.

(21)

+4

+3(6)

+1

(40)

5

(13)(11)

0

(46)

4

(3)(10)

0

Conventional Heavy

Alberta

Saskatchewan

(5)

0

(11)

(7)

(11)

(8)

Pentanes/Condensate +9 9 9

Oil Sands (bitumen & upgraded) 18 2 (56)Mining

In Situ

(50)

68

(56)

58

(75)

19

*Totals may not add up due to rounding

Est = Estimate for Q4

F = Forecast

January 2015 Update vs June 2014 ForecastWestern Canadian Crude Oil Production lower than forecast led by conventional

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Capital Investment and Drilling.pdf

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