BCCIMacroeconomic
Indicators
BCCIMacroeconomic
Indicators
Source: Ministry of EconomySource: Ministry of Economy
Bulgarian Economy in 2002: Well on TrackBulgarian Economy in 2002: Well on TrackBulgarian Economy in 2002: Well on TrackBulgarian Economy in 2002: Well on Track Economic growth of 4.5% in Q3 and 4.3% for the first Economic growth of 4.5% in Q3 and 4.3% for the first
three quarters: Bulgaria is among the leaders in Europethree quarters: Bulgaria is among the leaders in Europe Inflation of 3.8%Inflation of 3.8% Record high forex reserves: EUR4.56bn (November 2002)Record high forex reserves: EUR4.56bn (November 2002) Near record low external public debt for the first eleven Near record low external public debt for the first eleven
months: USD8.2bnmonths: USD8.2bn Robust growth in tourism revenues: 9.98% compared to Robust growth in tourism revenues: 9.98% compared to
20012001 Unemployment of 16.27%, a drop of 1.63% compared to Unemployment of 16.27%, a drop of 1.63% compared to
20012001 Current and trade account deficits to GDP ratios Current and trade account deficits to GDP ratios
improvingimproving Presence of “functioning market economy” (EC Report)Presence of “functioning market economy” (EC Report)
Macroeconomic Stability - Testimony Macroeconomic Stability - Testimony from Abroadfrom Abroad
Macroeconomic Stability - Testimony Macroeconomic Stability - Testimony from Abroadfrom Abroad
The Government’s economic program has received positive The Government’s economic program has received positive evaluation. The country’s credit rating has been raised on evaluation. The country’s credit rating has been raised on several occasions and currently stands at several occasions and currently stands at BB (with positive BB (with positive outlook)outlook) according to Standard&Poor’s, according to Standard&Poor’s, BB (with positive BB (with positive outlook)outlook) by Fitch IBCA, and by Fitch IBCA, and B1 (with positive outlook)B1 (with positive outlook) by by Moody’s). Japan Credit Rating Agency recently assigned Moody’s). Japan Credit Rating Agency recently assigned Bulgaria a rating of BB Bulgaria a rating of BB (with positive outlook)(with positive outlook). More rating . More rating upgrades are expected in 2003.upgrades are expected in 2003.
Support of the international financial institutionsSupport of the international financial institutions– the IMF approved a two-year stand-by agreement for SDR250mthe IMF approved a two-year stand-by agreement for SDR250m– the World Bank adopted a supporting strategy worth USD750m the World Bank adopted a supporting strategy worth USD750m
in totalin total– the EBRD launched a USD500m private sector financing programthe EBRD launched a USD500m private sector financing program
GDP Growth (by Quarters, %)GDP Growth (by Quarters, %)GDP Growth (by Quarters, %)GDP Growth (by Quarters, %)
4.0 4.13.9
4.2
3.2
5.3
4.5 4.5
2.6
1.71.4
0.6 0.50.8 0.9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 E
Bulgaria EU
20022001
Source: CANSTAT, EUROSTAT
CEE Countries (2002E)
1.0
2.52.7
3.53.53.54.0
4.4
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Bulgaria Hungary Romania Slovakia Croatia Slovenia CzechRepublic
Poland
Bulgaria
4.44.05.4
2.3
-5.6
4.0 4.8
-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002E 2003F
Source:EBRD, Ministry of Economy
GDP Growth (%)GDP Growth (%)GDP Growth (%)GDP Growth (%)
Gross Domestic Product (EUR bn)Gross Domestic Product (EUR bn)Gross Domestic Product (EUR bn)Gross Domestic Product (EUR bn)
Source: Ministry of Finance
16.7
13.7
12.211.5
7.5
8.9
15.1
0
5
10
15
20
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002E
GDP Structure (by Sector, %)GDP Structure (by Sector, %)GDP Structure (by Sector, %)GDP Structure (by Sector, %)
13.613.916.318.826.2
15.1
28.529.128.230.5
27.9
30.7
57.957.055.550.745.954.2
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Agriculture and Forestry Industry Services
Source: National Statistics Institute
GDP Structure (by Ownership, %)GDP Structure (by Ownership, %)GDP Structure (by Ownership, %)GDP Structure (by Ownership, %)
55.963.4 62.4 64.0 69.6 71.7 73.3
85.0
44.136.6 37.6 36.0 30.4 28.3 26.7
15.0
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002E 2003F
Private Public
Source: National Statistics Institute
Annual Inflation Annual Inflation (%, Year-End, 1991-2003E) (%, Year-End, 1991-2003E)
Annual Inflation Annual Inflation (%, Year-End, 1991-2003E) (%, Year-End, 1991-2003E)
547.7
311.6
79.5
473.6
63.8
122.0
32.7
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
4.03.8
4.8
11.4
1.0
6.2
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002E 2003F
Source: National Statistics Institute
Inflation (%, Year-End)Inflation (%, Year-End)Inflation (%, Year-End)Inflation (%, Year-End)Bulgaria
3.84.8
11.4
1.0
6.2
02468
1012
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Source: Governmental Sources and National Statistics Institute
CEE Countries (2001)30.3
9.2 8.5 7.5 6.0 5.5 4.8 4.7
05
101520253035
Romania Hungary Slovenia Slovakia Croatia Poland Bulgaria CzechRepublic
Base (Benchmark) Interest RateBase (Benchmark) Interest Rate(%, 01/1998-01/2003)(%, 01/1998-01/2003)
Base (Benchmark) Interest RateBase (Benchmark) Interest Rate(%, 01/1998-01/2003)(%, 01/1998-01/2003)
Source: Bulgarian National Bank
2.5%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Base (Benchmark) Interest RateBase (Benchmark) Interest Rate(%, Year-End)(%, Year-End)
Base (Benchmark) Interest RateBase (Benchmark) Interest Rate(%, Year-End)(%, Year-End)
CEE Countries (2001)35.0
15.510.9 9.8
5.9 4.7 4.7 4.6
05
101520253035
Romania Poland Hungary Slovakia Croatia Slovenia CzechRepublic
Bulgaria
Bulgaria
3.30
4.654.635.084.46
0
2
4
6
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002E
Source: Governmental Sources and Bulgarian National Bank
Budget Surplus/Deficit (% GDP)Budget Surplus/Deficit (% GDP)Budget Surplus/Deficit (% GDP)Budget Surplus/Deficit (% GDP)
Source: Governmental Sources and Ministry of Finance
CEE Countries (2001)
-0.9-1.3-2.4
-3.3-3.5-4.4-4.5
-5.5-6%-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%
PolandCzech
Republic Slovakia Romania Hungary Croatia Slovenia Bulgaria
Bulgaria
-1.2
0.0-0.7-0.7-0.9-1.1.-1.0
0.9
3.22.82.82.93.23.0
5.5
2.9
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003F 2005FBudget surplus/deficit, % GDPPrimary surplus, % GDP
Foreign Exchange Reserves (EUR m)Foreign Exchange Reserves (EUR m)Foreign Exchange Reserves (EUR m)Foreign Exchange Reserves (EUR m)
3 207
2 613
3 7193 812
4 563
250
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
31.12.1998 31.12.1999 31.12.2000 31.12.2001 I-XI 2002
4 062
Eurobond Issue 12/11/2001
Source: Bulgarian National Bank
Foreign Debt (USD m, 1996-2002E)Foreign Debt (USD m, 1996-2002E)Foreign Debt (USD m, 1996-2002E)Foreign Debt (USD m, 1996-2002E)
10 625
10 409
9 602
10 892 10 914
11 202
9 000
9 500
10 000
10 500
11 000
11 500
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002E
Source: Bulgarian National Bank
Government DebtGovernment Debt(% GDP, 1997-September 2002)(% GDP, 1997-September 2002)
Government DebtGovernment Debt(% GDP, 1997-September 2002)(% GDP, 1997-September 2002)
Source: Bulgarian National Bank
Maastricht criterion
58,1%
70,1%
77,1%
86,7%83,2%
105,1%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 September2002
129
132 133
142
118
123
117 116118
115114
106104
117
123
135131
129
125119121
133 133 131
135139
137
128129
135134
138135
100
110
120
130
140
150
Janua
ryFeb
ruar
y
Mar
ch
April
May
June
July
August
Septem
ber
Octob
erNov
ember
Decem
ber
2000 2001 2002
Source: National Statistics Institute
Average Salary (EUR)Average Salary (EUR)Average Salary (EUR)Average Salary (EUR)
Source: EBRD
8800
5700
4100 39003500
2500
1400900 800
1380
30003000
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
Sloven
ia
Poland
Czech
Rep
ublic
Hun
gary
Estoni
a
Lithua
nia
Slovak
Rep
ublic
Latvia
Roman
ia
Bulga
ria
Russia
Ukrai
ne
Annual Salaries (USD, Annual Salaries (USD, 20022002))Annual Salaries (USD, Annual Salaries (USD, 20022002))
Source: AIMS Human Capital Bulgaria
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
Chief Executive Top/SeniorManagement
Mid Management Professional Staff
Bulgaria
Romania
Czech Republic
Hungary
Poland
Low average
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
Chief Executive Top/SeniorManagement
Mid Management Professional Staff
Bulgaria
Romania
Czech Republic
Hungary
Poland
High average
Gross Monthly Salary Levels (USD)Gross Monthly Salary Levels (USD)Gross Monthly Salary Levels (USD)Gross Monthly Salary Levels (USD)
01 0002 0003 0004 0005 0006 000
Chief Executive Top/SeniorManagement
Mid Management Professional Staff
Bulgaria Average for Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary
Low average
01 0002 0003 0004 0005 0006 000
Chief Executive Top/SeniorManagement
Mid Management Professional Staff
Bulgaria Average for Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary
High average
Source: AIMS Human Capital Bulgaria
Gross Monthly Salary Levels (USD)Gross Monthly Salary Levels (USD)Gross Monthly Salary Levels (USD)Gross Monthly Salary Levels (USD)
Gross Capital Formation (% GDP)Gross Capital Formation (% GDP)Gross Capital Formation (% GDP)Gross Capital Formation (% GDP)
Source: Ministry of Finance and National Statistics Institute
21.1
8.4
11.4
16.9
19.0
16.6
20.4
8
12
16
20
24
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002E
Macroeconomic Indicators (1)Macroeconomic Indicators (1)Macroeconomic Indicators (1)Macroeconomic Indicators (1)
Source: Ministry of Finance
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002E 2003F
GDP (BGN bn)
14.43 17.43 22.42 23.79 26.75 29.62 32.61 35.00
Real GDP growth (%)
-9.4 -5.6 4.0 2.3 5.4 4.0 4.4 4.8
Annual inflation (year-end, %)
311.6 547.7 1.6 7.0 11.3 4.8 3.8 4.0
Budget deficit (% GDP)
-10.4 -3.0 1.0 -0.9 -1.0 -0.9 -0.7 -0.7
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Jan-Nov
2002 2002E
Foreign debt (% GDP)
97.0 100.4 85.5 84.2 88.9 78.3 68.1 n.a.
Balance of payments (USD m)
-724 1,205 -95 96 137 373 672 200
Current account (USD m)
164 1,046 -61 -652 -702 -842 -450 -600
Current account (% GDP)
1.7 10.1 -0.5 -5.0 -5.6 -6.2 -2.9 -3.5
Trade balance (USD m)
122 321 -381 -1,081 -1,175 -1,580 -1,352 -1,500
Exports (USD m)
4,689 4,809 4,193 4,006 4,825 5,113 5,022 5,500
Imports (USD m)
4,568 4,488 4,574 5,087 6,000 6,693 6,373 7,000
Import coverage (months)
1.5 5.1 6.1 5.9 5.4 5.0 6.1 6.0
FDI (USD m)
109 505 537 819 1,002 694 429 500
Macroeconomic Indicators (2)Macroeconomic Indicators (2)Macroeconomic Indicators (2)Macroeconomic Indicators (2)
Source: Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Economy and Bulgarian National Bank
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