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GRP(g/g/d)

ModelingBioenergeCcHabitatSuitabilityforInvasiveBigheadedCarpinLakeMichigan

PeterAlsip1,HongyanZhang1,2;MarkRowe,1,2,EdwardRutherford3,DoranMason3,CatherineRiseng1,ZhenmingSu4

1UniversityofMichigan,SchoolofEnvironmentandSustainability,AnnArbor,Michigan2UniversityofMichigan,Coopera@veIns@tuteforGreatLakesResearch,AnnArbor,Michigan3Na@onalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministra@on,GreatLakesEnvironmentalResearchLaboratory,AnnArbor,Michigan4MichiganDepartmentofNaturalResources,Ins@tuteforFisheriesResearch,UniversityofMichigan,AnnArbor,Michigan

AffiliaCons1.  Cooke,S.L.,Hill,W.R.,2010.Canfilter-feedingAsiancarpinvadetheLauren@anGreatLakes?A

bioenerge@cmodellingexercise.Freshw.Biol.55,2138–2152.doi:10.1111/j.1365-2427.2010.02474.x2.  Anderson,K.R.,Chapman,D.C.,Wynne,T.T.,Paukert,C.P.,2017.Assessmentofphytoplankton

resourcessuitableforbigheadedcarpsinLakeMichiganderivedfromremotesensingandbioenerge@cs.J.GreatLakesRes.43,90–99.doi:10.1016/j.jglr.2017.03.005

3.  Rowe,M.D.,Anderson,E.J.,Vanderploeg,H.A.,Pothoven,S.A.,Elgin,A.K.,Wang,J.,Yousef,F.,2017.Influenceofinvasivequaggamussels,phosphorusloads,andclimateonspa@alandtemporalpaxernsofproduc@vityinLakeMichigan:Abiophysicalmodelingstudy.Limnol.Oceanogr.doi:10.1002/lno.10595

4.  DeStasio,B.T.,Schrimpf,M.B.,Cornwell,B.H.,2014.Phytoplanktoncommuni@esinGreenBay,LakeMichiganaBerinvasionbydreissenidmussels:Increaseddominancebycyanobacteria.Diversity6,681–704.doi:10.3390/d6040681

5.  Reed,E.M.,2017.Master’sThesis.NearshoreZooplanktonCommuni@esofLakeMichiganandImplica@onsforInvasibilitybyAsianCarp.UniversityofIllinoisatUrbana-Champaign

References

•  Simula@onofBHCfeedingonallpreytypesthruthewatercolumnproducedthegreatestvolumeofsuitablehabitat(Fig.5).

•  FVCOM-GEMoveres@matedzooplanktonbiomassandunderes@matedchlaconcentra@onsinLowerGreenBay(Fig.6).

•  SuitableBHChabitatpeakedinlatesummerandearlyfall(Figs.7,

8).

•  SuitablehabitatinLakeMichiganismorelimitedforSilverCarpthanforBigheadCarp(Fig.7).

•  Theextentandloca@onofsuitablehabitatvariesseasonally,butit

isconcentratedinafewnearshoreareas(Fig.8).

IntroducConDatasource:TheLakeMichiganFiniteVolumeCommunityOceanModel-GeneralEcosystemModule(FVCOM-GEM)isa3-dimensionalbiophysicalmodelwithanunstructuredgrid3.FVCOM-GEMprovidedtheprey(zooplankton,phytoplankton,detritus)andtemperatureinputsforourgrowthratepoten@al(GRP)modelaswellasaspa@algridtovisualizehabitatsuitability(Fig.2).ModelBias:FVCOM-GEM’saccuracywasnotassessedfornodeswithinGreenBay,sowecomparedreportedvaluesofpreybiomasstosimulatedvaluestohighlightapoten@albiassourceinourGRPmodel.GrowthRatePotenCalModel:Wedevelopedacoupledforaging-bioenerge@csmodelthatintegratedtemperatureandpreydatawithineach3DcelloftheFVCOMgridtoevaluatehabitatqualityasindexedbyfishgrowth(g/g/day)throughoutLakeMichigan(Fig.3).SuitablehabitatwasdefinedasanycellwithGRP>=0g/g/day.Feedingscenarios:•  Ran6scenarios(Fig.4)toevaluatetheeffectsofsubsurfaceprey

anddietflexibilityontheextent(km3)ofsuitablehabitat.SeasonalAnalysis:•  Es@matedvaria@onandextent(km3)ofsuitablegrowthhabitat

fromAprilthruNovember.

MethodsandMaterials

•  AbroaddietandavailabilityofsubsurfacepreyincreasestheextentofsuitableBHChabitat,whichwasconcentratedinGreenBayandafewrivermouthsinSELakeMichigan.

•  However,habitatinmostofLakeMichigancannotsupportBHC

growth—confirmingpreviousstudies1,2.

•  ModelingsuitableBHChabitatcaninformmanagementbyiden@fyingareasatriskofBHCestablishmentandhelpingtopriori@zesurveillanceefforts.

•  Furthercalibra@onofsimulatedwaterqualitydatainGreenBayisneededtoreduceuncertaintyinGRPes@mates.

ConclusionsandDiscussions

BigheadandSilverCarp(collec@velybigheadedcarp‘BHC’):•  Highlyinvasiveplank@vorousfishesthathavebecomeprolific

intheMississippiRiverBasin•  ThreatentoinvadeLakeMichiganandwreakhavoconthe

GreatLakesfoodweband$7billionrecrea@onalfishery

DoesLakeMichiganprovidesuitablehabitat?•  Thelakewidereduc@oninplanktonfollowingtheDreissena

invasionhastransformedmostofLakeMichigan(Fig.2)intoa‘planktondesert’1.

•  Priormodels1,2indicatehabitatislimitedtoafewnearshoreareasbutthesemodelsdidnotconsider:•  Thefishes’flexiblediet,whichcanincludedetritus•  Theavailabilityofsubsurfaceprey,suchasthedeep

chlorophylllayerthatformsduringsummerstra@fica@on

Webuiltoffpreviousresearchby:•  IncorporaCngdetritusintoBHCmodeldietstoinves@gate

theimpactofaflexibledietonhabitatsuitability•  EvaluaCngtheenCrevolumeofLakeMichiganhabitatusing

aGrowthRatePoten@alapproach(Fig.3)andsimulatedwaterqualitydatafroma3Dbiophysicalmodel(Fig.2).

Results

Figure3.Conceptualdiagramofgrowthratepoten@al(GRP)model.Afiltra@onrateequa@onisappliedtopreydensity(J/L)andtemperature(C°)inputstoes@mateconsump@onratewithineach3DcellintheFVCOMgrid.Energe@ccosts(Respira@onandWasteLoss)aresubtractedfromconsump@ontodeterminefishgrowthratepoten@al.

Figure5.ExtentofsuitablehabitatforBigheadandSilvercarpunderallfeedingscenarios.S=Surface,WC=Watercolumn,PP=phytoplankton,ZP=

Zooplankton,Det=Detritus.

Figure8.SeasonalhabitatdynamicsforBigheadCarp.Figure4.Feedingscenarioswerecharacterizedbytwofactors:1)Watervolumeavailableforcarptofeedat/throughout(Surfaceorthewhole

watercolumn);2)Preyavailabletocarp.

Support

(Photo:AmyBenson,USGS)

(Photo:IllinoisDNR)

Figure1.BigheadCarpHypophthalmichthysnobilis(top)andSilverCarp(Hypophthalmichthysmolitrix(boxom).

Figure2.FVCOM-GEM’sspa@aldomain(LakeMichigan,leB)andapor@onofitsunstructuredgrid(right).Thegridcontains5795nodeseachwith20ver@calterrain-followingsigmalayers3.

051015202530354045

S,PP S,PP+ZP S,PP+ZP+Det

WC,PP WC,PP+ZP

WC,PP+ZP+Det

VolumeofSuitableHa

bitat

(km3)

FeedingScenarios

ExtentofSuitableHabitatforDifferentFeedingScenarios

Bighead

Silver

Figure6.SimulatedpreybiomassinlowerGreenBayfromFVCOM-

GEMcomparedtoreportedvalues4,5.

0

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VolumeofSuitableHa

bitat(km

3 )

ExtentofSuitableHabitat(April-November)

Bighead

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Figure7.Seasonalfluctua@oninmodeledsuitablehabitatforBHC

growthinLakeMichigan.

0

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50

60

70

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90

0

0.0005

0.001

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MeanCh

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yllaCon

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plan

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Simulatedvs.ReportedPreyDensiCesinLowerGreenBay

SimulatedZooplankton ReportedZooplankton

SimulatedChlorophyll ReportedChlorophyll

April June August October