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GRP (g/g/d) Modeling BioenergeCc Habitat Suitability for Invasive Bigheaded Carp in Lake Michigan Peter Alsip 1 , Hongyan Zhang 1 , 2 ; Mark Rowe, 1,2 , Edward Rutherford 3 , Doran Mason 3 , Catherine Riseng 1 , Zhenming Su 4 1 University of Michigan, School of Environment and Sustainability, Ann Arbor, Michigan 2 University of Michigan, Coopera@ve Ins@tute for Great Lakes Research, Ann Arbor, Michigan 3 Na@onal Oceanic and Atmospheric Administra@on, Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ann Arbor, Michigan 4 Michigan Department of Natural Resources, Ins@tute for Fisheries Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan AffiliaCons 1. Cooke, S.L., Hill, W.R., 2010. Can filter-feeding Asian carp invade the Lauren@an Great Lakes? A bioenerge@c modelling exercise. Freshw. Biol. 55, 2138–2152. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2427.2010.02474.x 2. Anderson, K.R., Chapman, D.C., Wynne, T.T., Paukert, C.P., 2017. Assessment of phytoplankton resources suitable for bigheaded carps in Lake Michigan derived from remote sensing and bioenerge@cs. J. Great Lakes Res. 43, 90–99. doi:10.1016/j.jglr.2017.03.005 3. Rowe, M.D., Anderson, E.J., Vanderploeg, H.A., Pothoven, S.A., Elgin, A.K., Wang, J., Yousef, F., 2017. Influence of invasive quagga mussels, phosphorus loads, and climate on spa@al and temporal paxerns of produc@vity in Lake Michigan: A biophysical modeling study. Limnol. Oceanogr. doi: 10.1002/lno.10595 4. De Stasio, B.T., Schrimpf, M.B., Cornwell, B.H., 2014. Phytoplankton communi@es in Green Bay, Lake Michigan aBer invasion by dreissenid mussels: Increased dominance by cyanobacteria. Diversity 6, 681–704. doi:10.3390/d6040681 5. Reed, E.M., 2017. Master’s Thesis. Nearshore Zooplankton Communi@es of Lake Michigan and Implica@ons for Invasibility by Asian Carp. University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign References • Simula@on of BHC feeding on all prey types thru the water column produced the greatest volume of suitable habitat (Fig. 5). • FVCOM-GEM overes@mated zooplankton biomass and underes@mated chl a concentra@ons in Lower Green Bay (Fig. 6). • Suitable BHC habitat peaked in late summer and early fall (Figs. 7, 8). • Suitable habitat in Lake Michigan is more limited for Silver Carp than for Bighead Carp (Fig. 7). • The extent and loca@on of suitable habitat varies seasonally, but it is concentrated in a few nearshore areas (Fig. 8). IntroducCon Data source: The Lake Michigan Finite Volume Community Ocean Model-General Ecosystem Module (FVCOM-GEM) is a 3-dimensional biophysical model with an unstructured grid 3 . FVCOM-GEM provided the prey (zooplankton, phytoplankton, detritus) and temperature inputs for our growth rate poten@al (GRP) model as well as a spa@al grid to visualize habitat suitability (Fig. 2). Model Bias: FVCOM-GEM’s accuracy was not assessed for nodes within Green Bay, so we compared reported values of prey biomass to simulated values to highlight a poten@al bias source in our GRP model. Growth Rate PotenCal Model: We developed a coupled foraging- bioenerge@cs model that integrated temperature and prey data within each 3D cell of the FVCOM grid to evaluate habitat quality as indexed by fish growth (g/g/day) throughout Lake Michigan (Fig. 3). Suitable habitat was defined as any cell with GRP >= 0 g/g/day. Feeding scenarios: • Ran 6 scenarios (Fig. 4) to evaluate the effects of subsurface prey and diet flexibility on the extent (km 3 ) of suitable habitat. Seasonal Analysis: • Es@mated varia@on and extent (km3) of suitable growth habitat from April thru November. Methods and Materials • A broad diet and availability of subsurface prey increases the extent of suitable BHC habitat, which was concentrated in Green Bay and a few river mouths in SE Lake Michigan. • However, habitat in most of Lake Michigan cannot support BHC growth — confirming previous studies 1,2 . • Modeling suitable BHC habitat can inform management by iden@fying areas at risk of BHC establishment and helping to priori@ze surveillance efforts. • Further calibra@on of simulated water quality data in Green Bay is needed to reduce uncertainty in GRP es@mates. Conclusions and Discussions Bighead and Silver Carp (collec@vely bigheaded carp ‘BHC’): • Highly invasive plank@vorous fishes that have become prolific in the Mississippi River Basin • Threaten to invade Lake Michigan and wreak havoc on the Great Lakes food web and $7 billion recrea@onal fishery Does Lake Michigan provide suitable habitat? • The lake wide reduc@on in plankton following the Dreissena invasion has transformed most of Lake Michigan (Fig. 2) into a ‘plankton desert’ 1 . • Prior models 1,2 indicate habitat is limited to a few nearshore areas but these models did not consider: • The fishes’ flexible diet, which can include detritus • The availability of subsurface prey, such as the deep chlorophyll layer that forms during summer stra@fica@on We built off previous research by: • IncorporaCng detritus into BHC model diets to inves@gate the impact of a flexible diet on habitat suitability • EvaluaCng the enCre volume of Lake Michigan habitat using a Growth Rate Poten@al approach (Fig. 3) and simulated water quality data from a 3D biophysical model (Fig. 2). Results Figure 3. Conceptual diagram of growth rate poten@al (GRP) model. A filtra@on rate equa@on is applied to prey density (J/L) and temperature (C°) inputs to es@mate consump@on rate within each 3D cell in the FVCOM grid. Energe@c costs (Respira@on and Waste Loss) are subtracted from consump@on to determine fish growth rate poten@al. Figure 5. Extent of suitable habitat for Bighead and Silver carp under all feeding scenarios. S = Surface, WC = Water column, PP = phytoplankton, ZP = Zooplankton, Det = Detritus. Figure 8. Seasonal habitat dynamics for Bighead Carp. Figure 4. Feeding scenarios were characterized by two factors: 1) Water volume available for carp to feed at/throughout (Surface or the whole water column); 2) Prey available to carp. Support (Photo: Amy Benson, USGS) (Photo: Illinois DNR) Figure 1. Bighead Carp Hypophthalmichthys nobilis (top) and Silver Carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix (boxom). Figure 2. FVCOM-GEM’s spa@al domain (Lake Michigan, leB) and a por@on of its unstructured grid (right). The grid contains 5795 nodes each with 20 ver@cal terrain-following sigma layers 3 . 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 S, PP S, PP + ZP S, PP + ZP +Det WC, PP WC, PP + ZP WC, PP + ZP + Det Volume of Suitable Habitat (km3) Feeding Scenarios Extent of Suitable Habitat for Different Feeding Scenarios Bighead Silver Figure 6. Simulated prey biomass in lower Green Bay from FVCOM- GEM compared to reported values 4,5 . 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Volume of Suitable Habitat (km 3 ) Extent of Suitable Habitat (April - November) Bighead Silver Figure 7. Seasonal fluctua@on in modeled suitable habitat for BHC growth in Lake Michigan. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 0.0005 0.001 0.0015 0.002 0.0025 0.003 0.0035 Mean Chlorophyll a ConcentraCon (ug/L) Mean Wet Zooplankton Biomass (g/L) Simulated vs. Reported Prey DensiCes in Lower Green Bay Simulated Zooplankton Reported Zooplankton Simulated Chlorophyll Reported Chlorophyll April June August October
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GRP(g/g/d)
ModelingBioenergeCcHabitatSuitabilityforInvasiveBigheadedCarpinLakeMichigan
PeterAlsip1,HongyanZhang1,2;MarkRowe,1,2,EdwardRutherford3,DoranMason3,CatherineRiseng1,ZhenmingSu4
1UniversityofMichigan,SchoolofEnvironmentandSustainability,AnnArbor,Michigan2UniversityofMichigan,Coopera@veIns@tuteforGreatLakesResearch,AnnArbor,Michigan3Na@onalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministra@on,GreatLakesEnvironmentalResearchLaboratory,AnnArbor,Michigan4MichiganDepartmentofNaturalResources,Ins@tuteforFisheriesResearch,UniversityofMichigan,AnnArbor,Michigan
AffiliaCons1. Cooke,S.L.,Hill,W.R.,2010.Canfilter-feedingAsiancarpinvadetheLauren@anGreatLakes?A
[email protected],2138–2152.doi:10.1111/j.1365-2427.2010.02474.x2. Anderson,K.R.,Chapman,D.C.,Wynne,T.T.,Paukert,C.P.,2017.Assessmentofphytoplankton
resourcessuitableforbigheadedcarpsinLakeMichiganderivedfromremotesensingandbioenerge@cs.J.GreatLakesRes.43,90–99.doi:10.1016/j.jglr.2017.03.005
3. Rowe,M.D.,Anderson,E.J.,Vanderploeg,H.A.,Pothoven,S.A.,Elgin,A.K.,Wang,J.,Yousef,F.,2017.Influenceofinvasivequaggamussels,phosphorusloads,andclimateonspa@alandtemporalpaxernsofproduc@vityinLakeMichigan:Abiophysicalmodelingstudy.Limnol.Oceanogr.doi:10.1002/lno.10595
4. DeStasio,B.T.,Schrimpf,M.B.,Cornwell,B.H.,2014.Phytoplanktoncommuni@esinGreenBay,LakeMichiganaBerinvasionbydreissenidmussels:Increaseddominancebycyanobacteria.Diversity6,681–704.doi:10.3390/d6040681
5. Reed,E.M.,2017.Master’sThesis.NearshoreZooplanktonCommuni@esofLakeMichiganandImplica@onsforInvasibilitybyAsianCarp.UniversityofIllinoisatUrbana-Champaign
References
• Simula@onofBHCfeedingonallpreytypesthruthewatercolumnproducedthegreatestvolumeofsuitablehabitat(Fig.5).
• FVCOM-GEMoveres@matedzooplanktonbiomassandunderes@matedchlaconcentra@onsinLowerGreenBay(Fig.6).
• SuitableBHChabitatpeakedinlatesummerandearlyfall(Figs.7,
8).
• SuitablehabitatinLakeMichiganismorelimitedforSilverCarpthanforBigheadCarp(Fig.7).
• Theextentandloca@onofsuitablehabitatvariesseasonally,butit
isconcentratedinafewnearshoreareas(Fig.8).
IntroducConDatasource:TheLakeMichiganFiniteVolumeCommunityOceanModel-GeneralEcosystemModule(FVCOM-GEM)isa3-dimensionalbiophysicalmodelwithanunstructuredgrid3.FVCOM-GEMprovidedtheprey(zooplankton,phytoplankton,detritus)andtemperatureinputsforourgrowthratepoten@al(GRP)modelaswellasaspa@algridtovisualizehabitatsuitability(Fig.2).ModelBias:FVCOM-GEM’saccuracywasnotassessedfornodeswithinGreenBay,sowecomparedreportedvaluesofpreybiomasstosimulatedvaluestohighlightapoten@albiassourceinourGRPmodel.GrowthRatePotenCalModel:Wedevelopedacoupledforaging-bioenerge@csmodelthatintegratedtemperatureandpreydatawithineach3DcelloftheFVCOMgridtoevaluatehabitatqualityasindexedbyfishgrowth(g/g/day)throughoutLakeMichigan(Fig.3).SuitablehabitatwasdefinedasanycellwithGRP>=0g/g/day.Feedingscenarios:• Ran6scenarios(Fig.4)toevaluatetheeffectsofsubsurfaceprey
anddietflexibilityontheextent(km3)ofsuitablehabitat.SeasonalAnalysis:• Es@matedvaria@onandextent(km3)ofsuitablegrowthhabitat
fromAprilthruNovember.
MethodsandMaterials
• AbroaddietandavailabilityofsubsurfacepreyincreasestheextentofsuitableBHChabitat,whichwasconcentratedinGreenBayandafewrivermouthsinSELakeMichigan.
• However,habitatinmostofLakeMichigancannotsupportBHC
growth—confirmingpreviousstudies1,2.
• ModelingsuitableBHChabitatcaninformmanagementbyiden@fyingareasatriskofBHCestablishmentandhelpingtopriori@zesurveillanceefforts.
• Furthercalibra@onofsimulatedwaterqualitydatainGreenBayisneededtoreduceuncertaintyinGRPes@mates.
ConclusionsandDiscussions
BigheadandSilverCarp(collec@velybigheadedcarp‘BHC’):• Highlyinvasiveplank@vorousfishesthathavebecomeprolific
intheMississippiRiverBasin• ThreatentoinvadeLakeMichiganandwreakhavoconthe
GreatLakesfoodweband$7billionrecrea@onalfishery
DoesLakeMichiganprovidesuitablehabitat?• Thelakewidereduc@oninplanktonfollowingtheDreissena
invasionhastransformedmostofLakeMichigan(Fig.2)intoa‘planktondesert’1.
• Priormodels1,2indicatehabitatislimitedtoafewnearshoreareasbutthesemodelsdidnotconsider:• Thefishes’flexiblediet,whichcanincludedetritus• Theavailabilityofsubsurfaceprey,suchasthedeep
chlorophylllayerthatformsduringsummerstra@fica@on
Webuiltoffpreviousresearchby:• IncorporaCngdetritusintoBHCmodeldietstoinves@gate
theimpactofaflexibledietonhabitatsuitability• EvaluaCngtheenCrevolumeofLakeMichiganhabitatusing
aGrowthRatePoten@alapproach(Fig.3)andsimulatedwaterqualitydatafroma3Dbiophysicalmodel(Fig.2).
Results
Figure3.Conceptualdiagramofgrowthratepoten@al(GRP)model.Afiltra@onrateequa@onisappliedtopreydensity(J/L)andtemperature(C°)inputstoes@[email protected]@ccosts(Respira@onandWasteLoss)aresubtractedfromconsump@ontodeterminefishgrowthratepoten@al.
Figure5.ExtentofsuitablehabitatforBigheadandSilvercarpunderallfeedingscenarios.S=Surface,WC=Watercolumn,PP=phytoplankton,ZP=
Zooplankton,Det=Detritus.
Figure8.SeasonalhabitatdynamicsforBigheadCarp.Figure4.Feedingscenarioswerecharacterizedbytwofactors:1)Watervolumeavailableforcarptofeedat/throughout(Surfaceorthewhole
watercolumn);2)Preyavailabletocarp.
Support
(Photo:AmyBenson,USGS)
(Photo:IllinoisDNR)
Figure1.BigheadCarpHypophthalmichthysnobilis(top)andSilverCarp(Hypophthalmichthysmolitrix(boxom).
Figure2.FVCOM-GEM’sspa@aldomain(LakeMichigan,leB)andapor@onofitsunstructuredgrid(right).Thegridcontains5795nodeseachwith20ver@calterrain-followingsigmalayers3.
051015202530354045
S,PP S,PP+ZP S,PP+ZP+Det
WC,PP WC,PP+ZP
WC,PP+ZP+Det
VolumeofSuitableHa
bitat
(km3)
FeedingScenarios
ExtentofSuitableHabitatforDifferentFeedingScenarios
Bighead
Silver
Figure6.SimulatedpreybiomassinlowerGreenBayfromFVCOM-
GEMcomparedtoreportedvalues4,5.
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40
45
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bitat(km
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ExtentofSuitableHabitat(April-November)
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Figure7.Seasonalfluctua@oninmodeledsuitablehabitatforBHC
growthinLakeMichigan.
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April June August October
