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The Medium of Wireless
An in Depth Analysis of Spectrum Demand, Measurement, and Policy
Department of Engineering and Public Policy (EPP)
Department of Social and Decision Sciences (SDS)
Heinz School of Public Policy and Management (Heinz)
Carnegie Mellon UniversityFebruary 14th 2002
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Facts and Focus
“The three most important issues before the FCC today are Spectrum, Spectrum, and Spectrum” -Reed Hundt– Concentrate on broadband wireless
applications– The 300MHz – 3GHz range is
contentious– Cover both licensed and unlicensed
use
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Research Motivation
Carriers are demanding more spectrum
Unlicensed device sales are exploding
Government agencies want to keep spectrum allocations
There is known about actual spectrum utilization
It is hard to shift spectrum from one service to another
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Goals
To provide the FCC, NTIA, and other interested organizations with constructive knowledge and insights– Address the “spectrum shortage”– Forecast future demand from
emerging technologies– Measure current spectrum usage
and demand– Develop and evaluate possible
policy frameworks
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Stakeholders
Public– Consumers
Private Sector– Service Providers– Equipment Manufacturers
Government– FCC– NTIA– Department of Defense – Public Service Providers
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Presentation Outline
Introduction, Spectrum Demand– Eugene Kim
Spectrum Measurement– Michelle Ng
Spectrum Policy– Lynna Quandt
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Agenda
How much spectrum should the FCC allocate to wireless broadband networks?– 3rd Generation Licensed Wireless
Networks– Unlicensed Wireless Networks
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Key Questions
How much spectrum should be allocated to 3G?– Infrastructure costs are influenced by
the amount of spectrum, thus influencing market penetration
Is the current allocation of unlicensed spectrum appropriate?– A rising demand for unlicensed wireless
devices
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Demand Projections
To understand how spectrum should be allocated, we plan to understand and analyze the demand projections for: – Licensed Networks
3G– Unlicensed Networks
802.11x Bluetooth
– Other Unlicensed Uses Cordless Appliances
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Supply To understand the realized demand
we need to understand what services cost
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3G Wireless
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Methodologies
Contact cellular providers in Pennsylvania about infrastructure plans and costs– Cell density and coverage– Maximum calls per cell– Pricing plans for consumers
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3G Wireless
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Demand
To determine the amount of spectrum needed for the unlicensed band, two key issues need to be taken into consideration– Sales projections– Device density
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UnlicensedSpectrum
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Methodologies
Look at current and past sales (demand) projections– 802.11x chipsets– Bluetooth chipsets– Cordless Appliances
Cordless Phones Baby Monitors
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UnlicensedSpectrum
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Methodologies
Determine a model on user densities in various environments– Academic– Corporate– Public– Private
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UnlicensedSpectrum
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Methodologies
Based on current and future figures and our density models we hope to extrapolate the necessary spectrum needed
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UnlicensedSpectrum
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Issues With Projections
Are current projections independent of each other?– Do projections take into
consideration the effect of substitute services?
– Are they reasonable? Total minutes of use Cost
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Proposed Deliverables
Survey of demand projections for 3G
A model of how spectrum allocation affects 3G infrastructure costs
Determine the amount of spectrum needed for the unlicensed band
Critique projection figures and determine their credibility
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Overview
Develop an empirical picture of spectrum utilization levels– Establish usage metrics for
contentious licensed bands– Determine whether there is high
congestion in unlicensed bands– Create a well-documented
measurement methodology
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Target Bands
WRC-2000 proposed bands for 3G– 698 – 960 MHz (UHF TV)– 1710 – 2025 MHz (Military/NTIA)– 2110 – 2200 MHz (Satellite)– 2500 – 2690 MHz (MMDS)
Unlicensed bands– 902 – 928 MHz (ISM, Crowded)– 2400 – 2484 MHz (ISM, 802.11)– 5725 – 5850 MHz (UNII)– 1910 – 1930 MHz (Unlicensed PCS)
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Pittsburgh Area Representative urban environment
– Pittsburgh Area Population: 2.3 Million
Shadowing issues – area is hilly
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Measurement Sites
High Altitude Measurement Sites– Cathedral of Learning– Mt. Washington
CMU Campus– Model for future 802.11 spectrum
use
Other Locations spectrum policyepp project coursemeasurement group
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Measurement Issues
Time of Day– Day vs. Night
Signal duration dictates scan rate– 802.11 (ms)– Cellular (min)– TV (days)
Targeted utilization vs. survey measurements
Limited Resourcesspectrum policyepp project coursemeasurement group
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Proposed Deliverables
Analysis of frequency utilization data in the Pittsburgh area– Determine whether current license
holders are utilizing their spectrum– Identify underutilized bands in which
sharing could potentially be implemented – Measure traffic congestion in unlicensed
bands
Documented measurement methodology to facilitate future research
Evaluation of previous studies and analysis of the respective results
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“Spectrum is the life-blood of your business. Without it, your businesses can’t grow. So my challenge is a straight forward one. We simply have to redouble our efforts to manage the spectrum resource in ways that make more spectrum available. It’s as simple as that. Spectrum scarcity is the ultimate spectrum cap.”
-Frm. Chairman Kennardin his remarks to the CTIA, 2-28-00
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Increasing Utilization
Past ways the FCC has increased utilization:– Spectrum sharing– Reallocation of users– Considering secondary markets– License flexibility
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Past Policy Options
Reallocation of band– FCC reallocated incumbents and re-
auctioned licenses– Auction winners paid moving
expenses for incumbents
Adding flexibility to bands– FCC rewrote restrictions on license
holders so the band could be used for additional services
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Reallocation
Used to create PCS band
Pros– Spectrum used for more valuable
services– Auction revenue to federal budget
Cons– Must agree on payment to
incumbent moving expenses spectrum policyepp project coursepolicy group
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Adding Flexibility
Used in 900 MHz cellular band
Pros– Doesn’t require moving incumbents– Transition is faster
Cons– Monetary windfall to incumbents
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A Different Approach
Combination of past options
Allow flexibility without the relocating incumbents
Decrease windfall to incumbents for selling of flexible licenses– Similar to lottery allocation problem
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Extracting Rents for Flexibility
Licensees pay for flexibility to be introduced into existing licenses– Allows for quick introduction of
flexibility to bands– No reallocation of incumbents– Federal government retains some
income from added services
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Issues
Pricing– How to determine cost
Legalities– What legal changes need to be
made
Implementation– Is this feasible?
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Pricing
Options for implementation– FCC set price that varies by band– Market-based price for flexibility
Which option is more feasible?
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Case Studies
Examine band where flexibility has been introduced
Possible Options– 900 MHz cellular band– Creation of PCS band– MMDS band
What was the market price of a license before and after flexibility was introduced? spectrum policy
epp project coursepolicy group
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Legalities
Is this legal under current regulation?– If not, what changes would be
needed?
How can the current auction system be modified to sell flexibility?
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Tasks
Create case studies of past policy options
Examine current auction system and propose modifications
Evaluate current legal regulations and propose possible changes
spectrum policyepp project coursepolicy group
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