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The Medium of Wireless

An in Depth Analysis of Spectrum Demand, Measurement, and Policy

Department of Engineering and Public Policy (EPP)

Department of Social and Decision Sciences (SDS)

Heinz School of Public Policy and Management (Heinz)

Carnegie Mellon UniversityFebruary 14th 2002

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Review Panel

Public Officials

Private Industry Representatives

Professors

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Facts and Focus

“The three most important issues before the FCC today are Spectrum, Spectrum, and Spectrum” -Reed Hundt– Concentrate on broadband wireless

applications– The 300MHz – 3GHz range is

contentious– Cover both licensed and unlicensed

use

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Research Motivation

Carriers are demanding more spectrum

Unlicensed device sales are exploding

Government agencies want to keep spectrum allocations

There is known about actual spectrum utilization

It is hard to shift spectrum from one service to another

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Goals

To provide the FCC, NTIA, and other interested organizations with constructive knowledge and insights– Address the “spectrum shortage”– Forecast future demand from

emerging technologies– Measure current spectrum usage

and demand– Develop and evaluate possible

policy frameworks

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Stakeholders

Public– Consumers

Private Sector– Service Providers– Equipment Manufacturers

Government– FCC– NTIA– Department of Defense – Public Service Providers

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Presentation Outline

Introduction, Spectrum Demand– Eugene Kim

Spectrum Measurement– Michelle Ng

Spectrum Policy– Lynna Quandt

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Demand of Spectrum

Eugene Kim

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Agenda

How much spectrum should the FCC allocate to wireless broadband networks?– 3rd Generation Licensed Wireless

Networks– Unlicensed Wireless Networks

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Key Questions

How much spectrum should be allocated to 3G?– Infrastructure costs are influenced by

the amount of spectrum, thus influencing market penetration

Is the current allocation of unlicensed spectrum appropriate?– A rising demand for unlicensed wireless

devices

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Demand Projections

To understand how spectrum should be allocated, we plan to understand and analyze the demand projections for: – Licensed Networks

3G– Unlicensed Networks

802.11x Bluetooth

– Other Unlicensed Uses Cordless Appliances

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Supply To understand the realized demand

we need to understand what services cost

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3G Wireless

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Methodologies

Contact cellular providers in Pennsylvania about infrastructure plans and costs– Cell density and coverage– Maximum calls per cell– Pricing plans for consumers

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3G Wireless

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Supply

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3G Wireless

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Demand

To determine the amount of spectrum needed for the unlicensed band, two key issues need to be taken into consideration– Sales projections– Device density

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UnlicensedSpectrum

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Methodologies

Look at current and past sales (demand) projections– 802.11x chipsets– Bluetooth chipsets– Cordless Appliances

Cordless Phones Baby Monitors

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UnlicensedSpectrum

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Methodologies

Determine a model on user densities in various environments– Academic– Corporate– Public– Private

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UnlicensedSpectrum

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Methodologies

Based on current and future figures and our density models we hope to extrapolate the necessary spectrum needed

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UnlicensedSpectrum

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Issues With Projections

Are current projections independent of each other?– Do projections take into

consideration the effect of substitute services?

– Are they reasonable? Total minutes of use Cost

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Proposed Deliverables

Survey of demand projections for 3G

A model of how spectrum allocation affects 3G infrastructure costs

Determine the amount of spectrum needed for the unlicensed band

Critique projection figures and determine their credibility

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Current Usage Of Spectrum

Michelle Ng

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Overview

Develop an empirical picture of spectrum utilization levels– Establish usage metrics for

contentious licensed bands– Determine whether there is high

congestion in unlicensed bands– Create a well-documented

measurement methodology

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Target Bands

WRC-2000 proposed bands for 3G– 698 – 960 MHz (UHF TV)– 1710 – 2025 MHz (Military/NTIA)– 2110 – 2200 MHz (Satellite)– 2500 – 2690 MHz (MMDS)

Unlicensed bands– 902 – 928 MHz (ISM, Crowded)– 2400 – 2484 MHz (ISM, 802.11)– 5725 – 5850 MHz (UNII)– 1910 – 1930 MHz (Unlicensed PCS)

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Pittsburgh Area Representative urban environment

– Pittsburgh Area Population: 2.3 Million

Shadowing issues – area is hilly

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Measurement Sites

High Altitude Measurement Sites– Cathedral of Learning– Mt. Washington

CMU Campus– Model for future 802.11 spectrum

use

Other Locations spectrum policyepp project coursemeasurement group

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Measurement Issues

Time of Day– Day vs. Night

Signal duration dictates scan rate– 802.11 (ms)– Cellular (min)– TV (days)

Targeted utilization vs. survey measurements

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Example Results

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Proposed Deliverables

Analysis of frequency utilization data in the Pittsburgh area– Determine whether current license

holders are utilizing their spectrum– Identify underutilized bands in which

sharing could potentially be implemented – Measure traffic congestion in unlicensed

bands

Documented measurement methodology to facilitate future research

Evaluation of previous studies and analysis of the respective results

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Spectrum Policy

Lynna Quandt

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“Spectrum is the life-blood of your business. Without it, your businesses can’t grow. So my challenge is a straight forward one. We simply have to redouble our efforts to manage the spectrum resource in ways that make more spectrum available. It’s as simple as that. Spectrum scarcity is the ultimate spectrum cap.”

-Frm. Chairman Kennardin his remarks to the CTIA, 2-28-00

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Increasing Utilization

Past ways the FCC has increased utilization:– Spectrum sharing– Reallocation of users– Considering secondary markets– License flexibility

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Past Policy Options

Reallocation of band– FCC reallocated incumbents and re-

auctioned licenses– Auction winners paid moving

expenses for incumbents

Adding flexibility to bands– FCC rewrote restrictions on license

holders so the band could be used for additional services

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Reallocation

Used to create PCS band

Pros– Spectrum used for more valuable

services– Auction revenue to federal budget

Cons– Must agree on payment to

incumbent moving expenses spectrum policyepp project coursepolicy group

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Adding Flexibility

Used in 900 MHz cellular band

Pros– Doesn’t require moving incumbents– Transition is faster

Cons– Monetary windfall to incumbents

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A Different Approach

Combination of past options

Allow flexibility without the relocating incumbents

Decrease windfall to incumbents for selling of flexible licenses– Similar to lottery allocation problem

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Extracting Rents for Flexibility

Licensees pay for flexibility to be introduced into existing licenses– Allows for quick introduction of

flexibility to bands– No reallocation of incumbents– Federal government retains some

income from added services

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Issues

Pricing– How to determine cost

Legalities– What legal changes need to be

made

Implementation– Is this feasible?

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Pricing

Options for implementation– FCC set price that varies by band– Market-based price for flexibility

Which option is more feasible?

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Case Studies

Examine band where flexibility has been introduced

Possible Options– 900 MHz cellular band– Creation of PCS band– MMDS band

What was the market price of a license before and after flexibility was introduced? spectrum policy

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Legalities

Is this legal under current regulation?– If not, what changes would be

needed?

How can the current auction system be modified to sell flexibility?

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Tasks

Create case studies of past policy options

Examine current auction system and propose modifications

Evaluate current legal regulations and propose possible changes

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Questions for Panel

How can we tailor our project to meet the needs of policy makers?

Other comments and feedback