1

Break out group 1- Greenhouse gas emission Break out group 1- Greenhouse gas emission targets for 2030 (methodological aspects)targets for 2030 (methodological aspects)

Issues discussed:• Methodologies most suited for the EU for assessing dangerous

anthropogenic climate change• Possible global long-term climate change targets for the EU

(other targets than the 6EAP target of +2C global temperature increase?)

• Global greenhouse gas and carbon dioxide concentration levels consistent with global climate change target(s)

• Possible convergence of per capita emissions and by which year

• Possible emission targets for industrialized countries and for EU25 for 2030

• Fulfilling the target through domestic action and through international emission trading

2

Break out group 1- Recommendations (1)Break out group 1- Recommendations (1)

• Need to compare countries perspectives (with measures 2010) with the top-down EEA scenarios for 2010

• The 6-EAP target of a maximum 2 degrees global temperature increase should not be exceeded in the Sustainable Emission Pathway scenario

• The rate of temperature increase per decade, proposed by WBGU, of 0.2 °C/decade could be added as an additional target

• No other climate change targets have been proposed• Base the EEA scenario methodology on peer-reviewed

literature • The EEA methodology for deriving global efforts should

be transparent on assumptions and compared with similar studies in order to present the broad range of options under discussion

3

Break out group 1- Recommendations (2)Break out group 1- Recommendations (2)

• EEA should focus the analyses on the commitment of Europe, and the action to be taken by Europe

• The temperature targets mentioned are consistent with a concentration target of a maximum of 450 ppm CO2 (550 ppm CO2eq), assuming a low to average climate sensitivity

• Assumptions on trading should reflect the most cost-effective solutions for reaching the EU commitments inside and outside Europe in line with the current Kyoto mechanisms

• Land-use change and forestry emissions and removals should be treated according to the Kyoto definitions

• Long term projections should not be limited to a single scenario