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To borrow a phrase from Mark Twain, everybody talks about the nationaldebt, but nobody does anything about it. There is much more talk about itlately, as the chairs of the Presidential debt commission released their outlinefor action last week and incoming Congressional Republicans are saying theymight not approve raising the debt ceiling when it comes up sometime early

in the next session.

We polled on both the commission report and raising the debt ceiling lastweekend, and Republicans will probably like what we found. Most likelyvoters accept the arguments made by the GOP, which is no surprise giventhe shellacking they gave the Democrats on Nov. 2.

Voters want to cut the deficit by reducing federal spending, not higher taxes. They dont want the debt ceiling raised (though most expect Congress will doso), and 44% believe that just cutting non-essential government serviceswould allow Uncle Sam to make its debt payments without default andwithout endangering the world economy. Do those things, these voters say,and the sun will come out tomorrow.

Here is what we found. First off, a small majority (54%) agreed that the initialproposal from the debt commission chairs (Republican former Sen. AlanSimpson and Democratic Clinton Administration official Erskine Bowles) is agood starting point, and 37% did not. Given that feeling, voters were mostlikely to describe the proposal as centrist (37%). However, a total of 34%,including 52% of Republicans, said it was liberal. Only 17% overall called itconservative.

Voter preference for cost cutting over tax raising was pronounced in twoother questions. In one, 48% said the proposal goes too far in raising taxeson all Americans to increase revenue compared to 25% who said it doesntraise enough revenue from taxes. In the other, 50% said the proposaldoesnt go far enough in cutting spending and only 20% said it goes toofar with spending cuts.

For both these questions, nearly 30% split between choosing the answeroption of other or were not sure. So a sizeable segment of the electorate isnot yet aware of the Simpson-Bowles proposal or, more importantly, perhaps

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wanting more balance of increased revenue and less spending.

On whether to raise the debt ceiling, 64% oppose it. Both Republicans (82%)and independents (71%) resoundingly reject the idea. Democrats by 45% to42% barely favor it. Still, 55% of all voters say the next Congress will vote toraise it.

Most interesting is voter perception of what would happen if Congress doesnot increase the debt ceiling. We offered three choices: 44% believed thegovernment cuts inessential services in order not to default on debt, 28%said essential services would be cut and only 18% thought the governmentwould default on its debt, and endanger the world economy.

The opinions of Republicans and independents are very much in sync on thisquestion; with 55% of Republicans and 49% of independents predicting onlyinessential services need be cut to avoid default. Given the gridlock thatdivided government will bring and how different people may defineinessential very differently, the predictions of Republicans and independentson this may be wishful thinking. Perhaps they realize this since 58% of independents and 44% of Republican agree Congress will raise the debtceiling.

As the recent election showed, independents hew to the Republican positionon fiscal issues, and certainly did so in this survey. Self-identified moderatesare more ambivalent. They are more likely to favor the same opinions asRepublicans when it comes to whether the Simpson-Bowles proposal goes toofar in cutting spending and raising taxes, but do not hold those positionsnearly as strongly. For both questions, more than one-third of moderateswere either not sure or chose other. Also, a plurality (42%) of moderates ismore likely believe a government default can be avoided by just cuttinginessential services.

Those are very heartening numbers for Republicans, who have lostmoderates to Democrats in recent elections, including this years midterms.However, moderates are more interested in job creation than deficitreduction, and will be very wary about any GOP proposals that alter SocialSecurity or other social and benefit programs.

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Time will soon tell whether the Tea Party infused Congress will succeedlegislatively and politically with an agenda of deficit and spending reductions.Our poll shows they have voter sentiment with them in the abstract, but

holding those voters through the details of deficit reduction is anothermatter.

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