4 years European Project

Kick off March 8‐10, 2011, Paris, France 

Ocean of Tomorrow

7th Framework Program

University Pierre & Marie Curie (project coordinator) 

ACCESS Consortium27 partners in 10 European countries

(France, Germany, UK, Norway, Sweden, Spain, Ireland, Finland, Denmark & Russia)

ACCESS ObjectivesClimate Change in the Arctic influences marine ecosystems and human activities.

ACCESS main objective

Climate change in the Arctic and socio economic impacts for the next 30 years

in particular for Europe

ACCESS specific objectives

• Scenarios for evaluating climate change in the Arctic

• Preservation of the environment and sustainable development in a fragile environment

• Potential impacts during the next 30 years for: 

Marine transportation (including tourism) on northern sea routes 

Exploitation of living resources (fisheries, aquaculture) and protection of marine mammals

Extraction of mineral resources (oil & gas) 

• Arctic Governance options

WP1Climate Change and  the Arctic Environment

WP5Arctic Governance, Sustainable Development and Synthesis

WP2Marine

Transportation & Tourism

WP3Fisheries

WP4Oil & Gasextraction

EU Projects&

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WP6 Dissemination + WP7 Management + WP8 Scientific Coordination

ACCESS Working groups

1979 et 2003 sea‐ice summer minimum extension

WP1Climate Change and the Arctic Environment

Context:Impacts of Climate Change on socio economic sectors and the evaluation of the associated risks require a profoundknowledge of the Arctic Climate System.

Drastic changes of Arctic sea‐ice cover, marine ecosystems, weather patterns in addition to extreme weather systemsdevelopment in the Arctic might have an important impact on economy and society.

Icebergs calving – Petermann glacier (Greenland) ‐ 12/8/2010

WP1Climate Change and the Arctic Environment

Objectives:• to propose a new system for observing the Arctic Ocean (Ice, Atmosphere, Ocean)• to provide new information on Arctic sea ice and prediction for the next 30 years• to analyse past changes and recent changes occurring in the Arctic Ocean.

•To evaluate the contribution from natural and anthropogenic sources to the air pollution, ocean acidification and climate change in the Arctic.• To evaluate future capacities to short termprediction (interannual to decadal variability).• September sea‐ice minimum outlook

•To evaluate the impact (sensitivity) on climate of, (i) a betterrepresentation of sea‐ice, (ii) an increase in atmosphericmodels resolution (iii) soot particles on sea ice (black carbondeposition)

Les routes maritimes polaires

WP2Marine transportation & Tourism

Context: 50% Reduction of Arctic sea‐ice in the last 10 years.Start of activity in marine transportation between Europe and Asia across the northern sea routes by European marine shipping companies.

Northern sea routes

North‐Westpassage

North‐East passage

=> Necessity to identify and to define necessary actions for a larger operationalcapacity of marine transportation and tourism in the Arctic Ocean in a context of economic opportunities and protection of a fragile environment.

• Infrastructure needs for marine transportation• Intensification of the pollution generated by the increase in marine transportation.• Improving safety regulations for marine transportation in the Arctic.

Les routes maritimes polaires

Objectives:• Impact of climate change on marine transportation in the Arctic• Laws & regulations for marine transportation in the context of Arctic sea‐ice reduction

• Socio economic aspects of marine transportation and tourism in the Arctic• Governance for marine transportation in the context of climate change

WP2Marine transportation & Tourism

WP3Fisheries

Context:The Arctic Ocean is one of the most productive Ocean and one of the most active for fisheries. In the context of climate change in the Arctic, the Barents Sea is certainly an area where one can predict drastic changes affecting fish stocks and fish landings.It is essential to study the sensitivity and the response of Arctic ecosystems and to identifyessential climate variables driving the system

Objective:To study the main socio economic impacts due to climate change in the Arctic on fisheries, aquaculture, marine mammals in addition to the resilience and adaptation of local populations and economic actors involved in and/or depending on these activities.

WP3Fisheries

Objectives: • To quantify the impact of climate change on fisheriessubjected to biological constraints and regulation (governance)• To evaluate the effects of  climate change on fisheries and aquaculture in the Arctic.• To establish the distribution of marine mammals population

• To create indicators for a sustainable development of Arcticfisheries considering economic activity change.

Context: The main part of hydrocarbons are actuallybeing exploited worldwide. More than one fifth of this stock, is stillunexploited and is located North of the Polar Circle.13% of unexploited fossil fuels on the Planetand  30% of natural gas are located in the Arctic and 84% are located offshore.

WP4Resources extraction

The exploitation of mineral resources has already started in the Arctic Ocean. But the safe exploitation of these resources remains an immense challenge. 

Objectives:• To analyze the impacts of an increasing activity for exploiting offshore hydrocarbonson European markets and Worldwide in addition to the impacts on society.• To evaluate various types of existing technologies and their capacity for extractingmineral resources safely even in extreme climate conditions.

WP4Resources extraction

• To provide an estimation of opportunities and major risks related to the extraction and transport of fossil fuels across the Arctic Ocean.(oil spill in sea‐ice, icebergs hazards and prediction …)

• To evaluate potential environmental hazards(air quality,  noise pollution, environnemental quality, identification of fragile ecosystems regions,…)

Climate Indices versus socio‐economic Indicators

Climate indices‐ NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) index

‐ AO (Arctic Oscillation) index‐ Sea‐ice winter index (freezing degrees days)‐ Sea‐ice summer index (melting degrees days)

‐ Atlantic water index (AWI)‐ Pacific water index (PWI)

‐Fresh water index (FWI)…………

Socio economic indicators‐ Fish landings in subarctic seas (tons)

‐Cargo (tons) carried along NSR and NWP.‐Offshore oil & gas extraction (barrils)

‐ Populations (indigenous and non indigenous)  involved in fisheries, marine transportation, offshore oil & gasexploitation, tourism in the Arctic region……….