Xu Yinlong — Agricultural risk to climate change in china
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Transcript of Xu Yinlong — Agricultural risk to climate change in china
China’s Agricultural Riskto Climate Change
• Yinlong XU (许 吟隆)• Climate Change Lab• Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture,• Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS)• Beijing, P. R. China• Tel: +86 10 8210 9766; Fax: +86 10 8210 6012 • E-mail: [email protected]• 08 November, 2011
Content
Background
Recent Adaptation Work for Agriculture
Risk Assessment
Next-step Work-plan
Overall features of climate change in China
Obvious warming with greater climate variability
Unbalanced regional precipitation with enhanced drought and flooding
More occurrence of extreme weather/climate events with huge economic loss
The Challenges of Agriculture to Climate Change in China
Threatening food security;Enhancing the agro-meteorological disasters;Getting hard to control the agricultural diseases, pestsand weeds;Degrading the grassland and instablizing the animalhusbandry;Exacerbating the poverty in rural and ecologicallyvulnerable regions.
1. More Occurrence of Agro-meteorological Disasters
Super Typhoon Saomai and Bilis Landed in 2006
Frozen snow in Southern China in 2008. Affected Crop areas are nearly 15 Million Hectares and the direct economic losses are more than 159 Billion Yuan.
6
Drought in North China Plain
2.Impacts on cropping systemThe cultivated area of single cropping system might drop by
23%,the north boundary of double cropping system might movenorthward to the middle part of the region of the present singlecropping system, and the proportion of triple cropping systemmight change from the present 13.5% to 36%.
The border of farming-pastoral ecotonemoved southward and extendedeastward between 1971-2000 and 1961-1990.
Green:↑ Red: ↓ Yellow: --Liu & Lin
Increasing
No change
Decreasing
3. Impacts on the yield of major crops
4. Impacts on the crop pests and diseases
The climate warming would change the distribution ofagricultural diseases and pests. This would increase the outbreakof pest and disease . the amount of pesticide and herbicideapplication would be increased due to the climate warming.
Rice Planthopper Wheat Aphid
Content
Background
Recent Adaptation Work for Agriculture
Risk Assessment
Next-step Work-plan
China’s INC on CC (2004)
Studies on National Strategyof CC Adaptation (2011)
National Assessment Reporton CC (2007)
Adapt to what?
Adaptation
Major tasks of Chinese agriculture to adapt to climate change
Enhancing the construction of agricultural infrastructures;Accelerating agricultural industrialization and modernization;Strengthening water conservancy facility and developing water-saving agriculture;Adjusting cropping systems and crop varieties layout;Developing adaptation techniques for animal husbandry;Establishing the early-warning systems for agricultural disasters and improving agricultural disasters insurance;Completing the adaptation technology check-list.
Action planBased on the challenges to climate change and major tasks toadapt to climate change, we proposed the action plan towards theyear 2020, including:1. basic farmland construction2. water saving project3. agricultural infrastructure construction4. constructing the gene pool and seed bank5. adjusting the cropping system6. monitoring, predicting and controlling the agro-meteorological disasters7. developing the adaptation technique checklist8. building the demonstration zone for adaptation9. preventing the grassland degradation10. forage resourcing and planning
Shortcomings of the present adaptation strategy research
•GHGs
emissionsClimatechange
Impactsassessments
Vulnerabilityanalysis
Riskanalysis
Adaptationstrategy
√ ×
Content
Background
Recent Adaptation Work for Agriculture
Risk Assessment
Next-step Work-plan
Risk= Hazard × Vulnerability
Risk assessment
Hazard
Exposure
Extreme Climate Events
VulnerabilitySensitivity
Adaptive capacity
Grids: 145*112
Grids: 219*183
PRECIS Old Domain
PRECIS New Domain
PRECIS Jobs List for the Old Domain
Observation Period Status Temporal Resolution
ERA-15 1979-1993 ReadyDaily
ERA-40 1957-2001 Ready
GCMs Period Status TemporalResolution
HadAM3P BS(1961-1990), 3个 Ready
DailyHadAM3P A2 (2071-2100), 3个 ReadyHadAM3P B2 (2071-2100) Ready
HadCM3Q0 A1B(1961-2100) Ready
PRECIS Jobs List for the New Domain
GCMs Period Status Temporal Resolution Notes
ECHAM5 A1B(1961-2050) Ready Daily 2051-2011 outputs
would be ready later;
Experiments:Q0:control experiment includes hourly and daily outputs;
In daily level:Q1:low sensitivity;Q7:middle sensitivity;Q10:high sensitivity;Q13:high sensitivity.
HadCM3Q(CORDEX-EAsia)
A1B(1961-2050)
Q0 Ready Hourly and Daily
Q10 Ready
Daily
Q13 Ready
Q7 Running
Q1 Running
CMIP5RCP
(1961-2050)
4.5 Not ready
8.5 Not ready
BS 2020s
2050s 2080s
PRECIS Outputs for the Old Domain -A1B Temp.
BS 2020s
2050s 2080s
PRECIS Outputs for the Old Domain -A1B Pre.
PRECIS Outputs for the New Domain -A1B2020s Temperature VS Baseline
2020s Precipitation VS Baseline
BS Temperature
BS Precipitation
First-classindices
Second-classindices Third-class indices
Exposure
Crop planting areas Different crop planting areas
Grain yield Total/growth rate of Yield
Disasters-causing factors
Drought
Floods
High temperature
Low temperature
Sensitivity
Climatologicallynormal
Precipitation
Temperature
Accumulated temperature
Climate variability
Temperature variability
Precipitation variability
Yield Yield variation
Disaster level Disaster area
Adaptivecapacity
GDP GDP per capita
Income level Income per capita
Total and structureof population
Total and growth rate of population
The rate of being educated population
The proportion of poverty
Land use The proportion of agricultural land
Agricultural GDP The proportion of agricultural GDP
Agriculturalinvestment
The application rate of chemical fertilizer
The level of agricultural mechanization
The application rate of Pesticides
Total and rate of agricultural electricity
Irrigable areaWater conservancy facilities level
Farmland capital construction level
The proportion ofthree majorindustries
The proportion in planting
Extension ofagricultural
science
The rate of promotion of achievement of science and technology in agriculture
Management ability Response capability of disaster assistance
First-class indices
Second-class indices Third-class indices
Vulnerability Indices
Questionnaire of Vulnerability indicators
Indices Weights (Based on AHP)Indices Weight
年均降水量(Precipitation) 0.1418
年均温度(Temperature) 0.0775
积温(Accumulated temperature) 0.0493
气温变率(Temperature variability) 0.0220
降水变率(Precipitation variability) 0.0302
产量变化率(Precipitation variability) 0.0126
人均GDP(GDP per capita) 0.1068
农民人均纯收入(Income per capita) 0.0971
贫困人口比例(The proportion of poverty) 0.0330
水土流失面积或治理率(Soil erosion area) 0.0257
人均粮食产量占有量(Per capita occupancy of grain) 0.0251
年均农业总投入(Annual overall input to agriculture) 0.0195
可灌溉面积比例(The proportion of irrigated area) 0.0158
种植业比例(The proportion of planting) 0.0103
农作物总面积(Crop planting areas) 0.1413
粮食总产/增长率(Total growth rate of yield) 0.1024
干旱成灾/受灾面积(Drought areas) 0.0552
高温成灾/受灾面积(High temperature Disaster areas) 0.0188
低温成灾/受灾面积(Low temperature Disaster areas) 0.0156
Content
Background
Recent Adaptation Work for Agriculture
Risk Assessment
Next-step Work-plan
Next-step work
Convert the extracted information of extremeclimate evens from climate scenarios to agro-meteorological hazards;
Complete the vulnerability indices;
Collect the relevant data of vulnerability indices;
ACCC Project :RegCM3 & PRECIS Job-list
• ERA-Interim: 1989-2008• HadCM3• SRES A1B QUMP0: 1951-2100• SRES A1B QUMP1\7\10\13: 1951-2100• ECHAM5• SRES A1B QUMP0: 1951-2100• CMIP5 Models
RCP 8.5 ⁄ 4.5: 1951-2100