Possible adaptation decisions from investigating the impacts of future climate change on food and water supply in China

Lin Erda, Xu Yinlong, Ju Hui and Xiong WeiAgro-environment and Sustainable

Development Institute, CAASZhang Silong

Water Information Centre, MOR

Global Warming and Its Impact

IPCC third assessment report identify an average increase in global temperature of 0.4~0.8 in past century℃Over the same period in China preliminary results show this temperature increase to be between 0.7~0.8 ,℃ the impacts of climate change in China were different and severe.

Global Warming and Its Impact

Global mean annual temperaturechange relative to preindustrial

20001950 2050 21000

1

2

3

4

5

6

Tem

per

atu

re a

no

maly

(o C

)

1900

Extreme andirreversible effects

Aggregate impacts

Distribution ofimpacts

Unique and threatened systems

Risks of large scalediscontinuitiesSome increase in extreme climate events

Small positive or negative net monetaryimpacts (most people adversely affected)

Net negative for some regions

Risks to some systems

Net negative monetary impacts

Net negative for many regions

Risks to many systems

Some increase in extreme climate events

Small positive or negative net monetary impacts (most people adversely affected)

Net negative for some regions

Risks to some systems

OB

SE

RV

ED

OB

SE

RV

ED Extreme and

irreversible effects

Aggregate impacts

Distribution ofimpacts

Unique and threatened systems

IMPACTS FOR HIGH WARMING SCENARIO

IMPACTS FOR LOW WARMING SCENARIO

IPCC High

IPCC Low

China/UK Cooperation Project

The capacity of the Hadley Centre model to simulate the present climate in China has been validated with observed data. This has been used to develop climate change scenarios for China.

What is PRECIS?

PRECIS—Providing Regional Climates for Impacts StudiesPurpose 1: to develop the regional-level SRES climate scenarios over the worldPurpose 2: to provide the datasets for the impacts assessments of climate change at the regional-level

A demo for RCM downscalingHadAM3H

PRECIS

A demo for RCM downscaling

PRECIS has a strong ability to simulate daily precipitation

Climate Change Scenarios based on

A2 –globally inhomogeneous economic development, with a continuous increase in the world’s population and a medium-high rise in greenhouse gas emissions.

        B2 – regional sustainable development, with a slower (but continuous) increase in the world’s population and a medium–low rise in greenhouse gas emissions.

75E 80E 85E 90E 95E 100E 105E 110E 115E 120E 125E 130E 135E

1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5

Simulated annual increase (C) in mean temperature (Tmean) for 2071–2079 under SRES A2 scenarios from PRECIS relative to baseline (1961–1990

75E 80E 85E 90E 95E 100E 105E 110E 115E 120E 125E 130E 135E

1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5

Simulated annual increase (C) in mean temperature (Tmean) for 2071–2079 under SRES B2 scenarios from PRECIS relative to baseline (1961–1990

Simulated average change in rainfall (mm/day) for 2071–2079 under SRES A2 scenarios from PRECIS relative to baseline (1961–1990)

Simulated average change in rainfall (mm/day) for 2071–2079 under SRES B2 scenarios from PRECIS relative to baseline (1961–1990)

  A2 (medium–high emissions)

B2 (medium–low emissions)

Time period

Temperature increase

(C)

Rainfall increase (%)

CO2

(ppmv*)

Temperature increase

(C)

Rainfall increase (%)

CO2

(ppmv*)

2011~2020

1.00 3.3 440 1.16 3.7 429

2041~2050

2.11 7.0 559 2.20 7.0 492

2071~2080

3.89 12.9 721 3.20 10.2 561

Climate Scenarios by PRECIS for China

Climate scenario trends in China by PRECIS

years Increased T (C)

Increased P

Trends

2021 1.117 3.87% -

2051 2.109 7.32% -

2071 3.035 6.88% dryer

2076 2.853 9.25% dryer

2081 3.102 10.76% dryer

2086 2.895 8.06% dryer

2090 3.422 5.49% dryer

Progress

A regional crop model is being developed for the whole of China.This has been linked to the climate model to predict changes in yield of Wheat, Rice, Corn and Cotton.

Model Shell (Reading polygon input files, writing output files,Running model repeatedly based on the Polygon definition.)

Regional Crop Model

CERES

Soil polygon fileCrop variety polygon file

Socioeconomic polygon file

PRECIS

Biomass output Water output Growth output

Input files

Output files

2080 Rice Yield Changes under A2,B2 Scenarios

Current Wheat Area

2080 Wheat Yield Changes under A2,B2 Scenarios

Current Maize Area

2080 Maize Yield Changes under A2,B2 Scenarios

Cottonyield.shp0,FM-A2-2040s-3271 - 600 kg/ha600 - 900 kg/ha900 - 1200 kg/ha1200 - 1500 kg/ha1500 - 1800 kg/ha1800 - 2100 kg/ha2100 - 2400 kg/ha2400 - 3000 kg/ha

Boundry.shpProvince.shp

N

EW

S

Cottonyield.shp0,FM-A2-2040s-5591 - 600 kg/ha600 - 900 kg/ha900 - 1200 kg/ha1200 - 1500 kg/ha1500 - 1800 kg/ha1800 - 2100 kg/ha2100 - 2400 kg/ha2400 - 3000 kg/ha

Boundry.shpProvince.shp

N

EW

S

2050 Cotton Yield Change under A2 Scenario

2050 Cotton Yield Change under B2 Scenario

SOC changing in 2050 under A2 scenario

SOC changing in 2050 under B2 scenario

SOC changing in 2080 under A2 scenario

SOC changing in 2080 under B2 scenario

Uncertainties of CO2 fertilization and Water availability

  Change in average yield (%)*

  With CO2 fertiliser effect Without CO2 fertiliser effect

  2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s

A2: rainfed

9.8 18.4 20.3 -10.3 -22.8 –36.4

A2: irrigated

-0.6 -2.2 -2.8 -5.3 -11.9 –14.4

B2: rainfed

1.1 8.5 10.4 -11.3 -14.5 –26.9

B2: irrigated

-0.1 -1.3 -2.2 0.2 -0.4 –3.8

Projected changes in average maize yield compared with yield under baseline (1961–1990)

Possible Adaptation for Agriculture• develop and promote use of CO2 fer

tilizing varieties• Promote irrigation and water-savin

g technologies• Adopt heat-resistant crops, water-e

fficient cultivars with resistance to pests and diseases

• adjust crop planting distribution based on getting warmer climate in Northeast China in next 20~30 years

• recover vegetation of grassland to avoid further desertification ； feeding animal with grass productivity

Study on the Effect of CO2 Fertilization on wheat production

Interaction of 450, 550 and 650ppm CO2 and 1-3℃ warming represents positive or adverse effects on these crops

Using a CO2 Gradient Chamber to simulate the influence of the different raised CO2 concentration with the warming climate.

Long term treatments of high lever of CO2 concentration are taking on wheat rice and maize generations

Change of soil moisture deficit (mm) <= -20-20 - 00 - 2020 - 4040 - 60> 60 No cropland or data

2050 Soil moisture deficit under A2 scenario

Effect of climate change on Yellow River

• Recent 40 years, the observed runoff from the 6 largest rivers in China showed a decrease trend.

• The Huayuankou station of Yellow Reviver, with a decrease rate of 5.70 ％ per decade.

• Total runoff of the Yellow River catchment would decrease by 0.43 ％ per decade 。

Runoff Deepness changes of 2071～ 2090 comparing with the baseline under B2 Scenarios

Results from VIC （ variable leakage capacity ） Model suggest the average runoff deepness in Ningxia, Gansu, Shaanxi, and Shanxi of of the Yellow River catchment may decrease 2 ％～ 10 ％。

Province

2050 Water Supply(100M m3) 2050 Water Demands(100M m3)

Ground

Underground

transfer

others Total Prod

LiveEco

Total  Different

Shanxi 32 38 4 13.3 87.3 59 17.5 10.8 87.3 0

Inner M.

140 104 17 14 275 207.7 17.8 68.4 293.9 -18.9

Henan 90 110 42 32 274 212.7 55.2 6.1 274 0

Shaanxi

55 40 9 19.1 123.1 84.4 21 17.7 123.1 0

Gansu 106 40 22 9.8 177.8 137.8 15.5 31.5 184.8 -7.0

Qinghai

106 10 1.5 3.5 121.0 30.7 5.8 84.5 121 0

Ningxia 80 8 6.4 5.8 100.2 102.4 4.2 1.1 107.7 -5.5

Water Demand and Supply of Selected Provinces

Assess carrying capacity of water resources

Actively adopt water saving technologies to establish a water-saving community

Improve the water price system, apply used water and treated sea water

South-to North water diversion

Possible Adaptation for Water Use

Conclusion

• Future climate change is almost unavoidable, adaptation should be most important

• Adaptation can hoist the danger lever due to suspend adverse impacts

• Incremental costs of adaptation could create a serious burden for developing countries

• Adaptation need international cooperation