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X`Supplementary Materials

Driving forces and mitigation potential of global CO2 emissions from 1980

through 2030: Evidence from countries with different income levels

Kangyin Donga,b, Hongdian Jiangc, Renjin Suna,d,*, Xiucheng Donge

a School of Business Administration, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing

102249, China

b Department of Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics, Rutgers, The State

University of New Jersey, NJ 08901, USA

c School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing

100081, China

d State Key Laboratory of Heavy Oil Processing, China University of Petroleum-

Beijing, Beijing 102249, China

e School of International Trade and Economics, University of International Business

and Economics, Beijing 100029, China

E-mail addresses: [email protected]; [email protected] (K.Y. Dong),

[email protected] (H.D. Jiang), [email protected] (R.J. Sun),

[email protected] (X.C. Dong).

*Corresponding author: [email protected] (R.J. Sun)

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Tables

Table A1. Selected prior studies on decomposition of CO2 emissions using the LMDI

approach (2008-2018).

Table A2. List of countries based on income level.

Table A3. Eight possible cases with zero values.

Table A4. Decomposition results of the global emissions changes and contributions of

various driving forces over 1980-2015.

Table A5. Decomposition results of emissions changes and contributions of various

factors in countries with different income levels (1980-1990).







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Table A1. Selected prior studies on decomposition of CO2 emissions using the

LMDI approach (2008-2018). Source: Compiled by the authors.

Author [ref.] Study area Study period Driving force

Hatzigeorgiou et al., 2008 Greece 1990-2002 1, 2, 3

Tunç et al., 2009 Turkey 1970-2006 2, 4, 5, 6

Oh et al., 2010 South Korea 1990-2005 1, 2, 4, 5

Pani and Mukhopadhyay, 2010 114 countries 1992-2004 1, 3, 5, 6

Vinuya et al., 2010 US 1990-2004 1, 2, 3, 5, 6

de Freitas and Kaneko, 2011 Brazil 1970-2009 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7

Zhang et al., 2011 China 1995-2009 2, 4, 5, 6, 8

O’Mahony et al., 2012 Ireland 1990-2010 2, 4, 5, 6, 8

O'Mahony, 2013 Ireland 1990-2010 1, 2, 3, 5, 6

Zhang et al., 2013 China 1991-2009 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12

González et al., 2014 EU 2001-2010 1, 2, 3, 5, 6

Feng et al., 2015 US 1997-2013 2, 3, 5, 13, 14

Xie et al., 2016 China 1995-2013 2, 5, 6, 15, 16

Mousavi et al., 2017 Iran 2003-2014 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

Henriques and Borowiecki, 2017 Europe 1980-2011 1, 2, 3, 5, 6

Shahiduzzaman and Layton, 2017 US 1973-2014 1, 2, 3, 5, 6

Chen et al., 2018 Macao 2000-2011 2, 4, 5, 8

Notes: a) 1. Income effect, 2. Energy mix effect, 3. Population effect, 4. Economic structure

effect, 5. Energy intensity effect, 6. Emission coefficient effect, 7. Economic activity effect, 8.

GDP, 9. Electricity generation efficiency effect, 10. Thermal power structure effect, 11. Electricity

structure effect, 12. Electricity intensity effect, 13. Consumption pattern effect, 14. Production

structure effect, 15. Industrial activity effect, and 16. Industrial scale effect; and b) EU denotes

European Union and US denotes United States.

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Table A2. List of countries based on income level.

Subpanel CountriesLow-income countries(10 countries)

Benin, Dem. Rep. of the Congo, Ethiopia, Haiti, Mozambique, Nepal, Senegal, Tanzania, Togo, and Zimbabwe

Lower-middle-income countries(28 countries)

Angola, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Cameroon, Congo, Côte d'Ivoire, Egypt, El Salvador, Ghana, Guatemala, Honduras, India, Indonesia, Jordan, Kenya, Morocco, Myanmar, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia, Vietnam, Yemen, and Zambia

Upper-middle-income countries(28 countries)

Albania, Algeria, Argentina, Brazil, Bulgaria, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Gabon, Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Jamaica, Lebanon, Libya, Malaysia, Mauritius, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Romania, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey, and Venezuela

High-income countries(44 countries)

Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Belgium, Brunei, Darussalam, Canada, Chile, Curacao, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Gibraltar, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Kuwait, Luxembourg, Malta, New Zealand, Netherlands, Norway, Qatar, Oman, Poland, Portugal, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Trinidad and Tobago, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, United States, and Uruguay

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Table A3. Eight possible cases with zero values.

Case

1 0 + 0 +

2 + 0 + 0

3 0 0 0 0 0

4 + + 0 + 0

5 + + + 0 0

6 + + 0 0 0

7 + 0 0 0 0

8 0 + + + 0

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Table A4. Decomposition results of the global emissions changes and contributions of

various driving forces over 1980-2015.

Period 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2015

Emissions change (Mt)

Overall change 1889.3 3762.7 6739.8 1913.2

EC 192.3 4394.6 907.6 1407.7

ECS -806.3 -4188.3 -599.9 -1396.0

EI -2789.0 -3534.4 -3289.6 -3740.6

PCG 3724.4 5233.7 7623.7 4524.3

P 1567.9 1860.1 2098.0 1117.9

Contribution (%)

Growth rate 13.6 23.9 34.5 7.3

EC 1.4 27.9 4.6 5.4

ECS -5.8 -26.6 -3.1 -5.3

EI -20.2 -22.4 -16.8 -14.3

PCG 26.9 33.2 39.1 17.2

P 11.3 11.8 10.7 4.3

Note: EC, ECS, EI, PCG, and P refer to emission coefficient, energy consumption structure,

energy intensity, income, and population, respectively.

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Table A5. Decomposition results of emissions changes and contributions of various factors in countries with different income levels (1980-

1990).

Countries Emissions change (Mt) Contribution (%)Overall EC ECS EI PCG P Growth EC ECS EI PCG P

Australia 51.9 -5.3 7.2 -27.2 42.6 34.6 25.1 -2.6 3.5 -13.2 20.6 16.7Austria 0.8 11.8 -14.9 -8.3 11.2 0.9 1.5 21.8 -27.4 -15.2 20.6 1.7Bahrain 3.5 1.4 -3.4 4.1 -1.5 2.8 48.6 20.1 -47.4 57.0 -20.4 39.3Belgium -20.6 -0.3 -22.9 -20.1 21.6 1.3 -16.4 -0.3 -18.3 -16.1 17.2 1.0Brunei Darussalam 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 -0.3 0.2 40.0 -5.6 13.7 53.6 -56.0 34.3Canada -2.9 8.2 -51.5 -69.0 58.1 51.3 -0.7 1.9 -12.2 -16.3 13.8 12.1Chile 8.1 -2.1 0.5 2.5 3.2 4.0 38.0 -9.9 2.5 11.7 14.8 18.9Curacao -6.0 -3.0 1.9 -5.9 1.1 -0.1 -69.0 -34.1 21.5 -67.8 12.5 -1.1Cyprus 1.3 0.7 -0.8 -0.5 1.5 0.3 50.0 26.7 -28.9 -19.3 58.2 13.2Czech Republic -17.9 51.2 -78.3 -11.5 20.2 0.4 -10.6 30.5 -46.6 -6.8 12.0 0.3Denmark -12.4 2.7 -12.4 -8.9 6.0 0.1 -19.7 4.3 -19.7 -14.1 9.5 0.2Finland -1.0 -5.0 -3.8 -8.9 14.4 2.3 -1.8 -9.1 -6.8 -16.3 26.3 4.2France -111.8 -89.1 -84.1 -35.7 75.0 22.0 -24.6 -19.6 -18.5 -7.8 16.5 4.8Germany -109.4 -91.9 -0.7 -244.3 213.2 14.3 -10.5 -8.8 -0.1 -23.4 20.4 1.4Gibraltar 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - -Greece 24.8 6.1 -1.1 16.0 0.7 3.1 55.0 13.5 -2.5 35.5 1.5 6.9Hungary -17.1 6.0 -24.3 -7.0 10.6 -2.3 -20.7 7.2 -29.5 -8.5 12.9 -2.8Iceland 0.1 -0.2 -0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 5.6 -12.2 -25.7 16.0 16.2 11.3Ireland 4.2 -2.0 1.1 -4.6 9.0 0.8 16.2 -7.9 4.1 -17.8 34.7 3.1Israel 14.0 6.3 -0.5 0.4 3.9 3.9 74.5 33.7 -2.5 2.1 20.7 20.5Italy 33.0 -15.2 6.1 -45.5 85.7 1.9 9.3 -4.3 1.7 -12.8 24.1 0.5Japan 171.7 -154.9 97.5 -200.7 376.4 53.3 19.7 -17.8 11.2 -23.1 43.3 6.1Korea 104.5 -38.9 5.7 -22.8 140.6 19.9 83.3 -31.0 4.6 -18.2 112.0 15.9

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Kuwait 1.4 18.3 -13.0 3.4 -18.8 11.5 5.3 69.3 -49.4 13.0 -71.2 43.5Luxembourg -1.5 0.9 -1.7 -6.2 5.0 0.5 -12.1 7.3 -14.1 -50.0 40.3 4.4Malta 0.6 0.0 -0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 60.0 2.5 -50.7 59.3 34.6 14.3New Zealand 5.3 -1.4 0.1 3.1 2.2 1.3 32.1 -8.6 0.9 18.6 13.6 7.6Netherlands 1.5 -4.9 0.2 -25.7 23.9 8.0 1.0 -3.3 0.1 -17.7 16.5 5.5Norway -2.6 -1.9 -4.0 -2.8 5.2 0.9 -10.3 -7.5 -15.8 -11.1 20.5 3.5Qatar 5.4 -0.7 -0.3 8.2 -8.9 7.1 77.1 -9.5 -4.7 116.6 -127.1 101.8Oman 8.6 5.8 -1.0 1.2 1.2 1.3 573.3 389.8 -65.0 78.1 81.0 89.5Poland -73.6 126.4 -122.9 -74.5 -28.5 25.9 -17.8 30.6 -29.7 -18.0 -6.9 6.3Portugal 14.1 -5.3 4.2 5.9 8.8 0.6 59.2 -22.5 17.5 24.6 36.9 2.7Saudi Arabia 51.7 -77.8 52.8 100.2 -87.1 63.6 52.0 -78.3 53.1 100.8 -87.6 64.0Singapore 16.1 -0.3 0.6 1.4 9.9 4.5 127.8 -2.2 4.5 10.7 78.8 36.0Slovak Republic -0.9 -2.2 -2.7 -4.0 4.6 3.4 -1.6 -3.9 -4.8 -7.3 8.3 6.1Spain 16.2 -42.6 3.8 -0.6 48.7 6.9 8.7 -22.9 2.0 -0.3 26.2 3.7Sweden -21.5 -7.0 -23.6 -3.8 11.2 1.8 -29.5 -9.7 -32.5 -5.3 15.4 2.4Switzerland -0.9 -0.1 -8.2 -0.8 5.9 2.3 -2.3 -0.3 -20.8 -2.0 15.1 5.8Trinidad and Tobago 1.5 -3.7 2.0 5.0 -2.6 0.8 23.4 -58.1 31.0 77.6 -40.2 13.1United Arab Emirates 32.7 -5.0 3.7 32.1 -17.0 18.9 170.3 -26.1 19.2 167.1 -88.5 98.6United Kingdom -21.5 68.5 -110.7 -140.4 152.0 9.2 -3.8 12.0 -19.4 -24.6 26.6 1.6United States 188.1 109.4 -199.1 -1257.3 1095.3 439.9 4.1 2.4 -4.3 -27.4 23.8 9.6Uruguay -1.7 -0.4 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 0.3 -32.1 -8.1 -13.8 -10.0 -5.6 5.3HI countries 338.0 -137.5 -600.2 -2053.2 2304.7 824.2 3.2 -1.3 -5.7 -19.7 22.0 7.9Albania -1.1 -0.1 -0.2 -1.6 -0.5 1.3 -16.2 -1.0 -2.5 -24.3 -7.3 19.0Algeria 22.3 -15.2 11.7 15.5 -0.7 11.0 80.8 -54.9 42.4 56.1 -2.7 39.9Argentina 4.1 1.6 -6.9 23.9 -29.1 14.6 4.3 1.7 -7.2 25.1 -30.6 15.3Brazil 16.6 -10.1 -9.6 7.3 -7.6 36.6 9.9 -6.1 -5.7 4.4 -4.5 21.8Bulgaria -10.5 67.9 -77.8 -19.5 20.2 -1.3 -12.4 79.9 -91.6 -23.0 23.8 -1.5China 712.2 110.3 -33.8 -866.8 1255.9 246.6 52.2 8.1 -2.5 -63.6 92.1 18.1Colombia 11.1 -1.1 -0.3 -1.6 5.6 8.5 32.0 -3.1 -0.9 -4.5 16.2 24.4Costa Rica 0.4 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 18.2 -1.2 -9.9 2.2 -1.2 28.2

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Cuba 3.7 2.4 -4.3 -7.2 10.5 2.4 12.2 7.9 -14.2 -23.8 34.6 7.8Dominican Republic 1.1 -1.0 1.0 -0.5 0.1 1.5 17.5 -16.1 15.9 -7.8 2.4 23.0Ecuador 2.9 -2.2 2.3 -0.3 0.1 2.9 27.9 -20.8 22.5 -2.9 1.0 28.1Gabon -0.4 0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.3 -30.8 19.5 -38.8 -24.8 -6.6 19.9Islamic Republic of Iran 82.7 -4.6 13.0 47.2 -19.3 46.5 93.4 -5.2 14.6 53.3 -21.8 52.6Iraq 26.1 1.3 -2.5 10.6 7.5 9.3 99.2 4.8 -9.7 40.1 28.5 35.5Jamaica 0.7 0.9 -1.6 -0.5 1.0 0.8 10.8 14.2 -24.0 -7.0 15.6 11.9Lebanon -1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -1.6 0.2 -16.7 2.9 0.8 0.7 -24.4 3.4Libya 8.2 2.1 -3.9 19.5 -16.3 6.9 46.6 11.8 -22.4 110.6 -92.5 39.1Malaysia 26.0 -0.7 6.6 0.8 10.4 8.9 109.7 -3.1 27.7 3.5 43.9 37.7Mauritius 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.1 83.3 14.0 -3.7 -3.3 64.3 12.0Mexico 44.6 -0.6 -12.3 18.3 -6.2 45.4 22.6 -0.3 -6.2 9.3 -3.2 23.0Panama -0.3 -0.5 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.6 -10.3 -18.3 1.5 -6.2 -8.0 20.7Paraguay 0.6 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 46.2 -4.4 3.2 -1.4 14.6 34.2Peru -1.2 -1.0 2.8 -1.0 -6.5 4.5 -5.9 -4.9 13.8 -5.0 -32.0 22.2Romania -9.0 40.1 -43.5 -13.4 2.7 5.1 -5.1 22.6 -24.6 -7.6 1.5 2.9South Africa 35.4 47.2 -86.3 40.7 -19.3 53.1 17.0 22.6 -41.4 19.5 -9.3 25.5Thailand 47.2 0.5 15.7 -5.4 27.8 8.5 140.1 1.6 46.5 -15.9 82.6 25.3Turkey 55.9 7.9 -0.5 0.7 28.7 19.1 78.2 11.0 -0.7 1.0 40.2 26.7Venezuela 10.2 -2.1 -4.5 9.7 -15.6 22.7 12.2 -2.6 -5.4 11.6 -18.7 27.3UMI countries 1088.9 243.3 -235.7 -724.0 1248.2 557.2 38.9 8.7 -8.4 -25.9 44.6 19.9Angola 1.2 -0.4 0.8 0.0 -0.2 1.0 44.4 -16.3 31.3 0.2 -7.4 36.6Bangladesh 4.8 -0.1 1.4 0.2 1.1 2.3 72.7 -1.5 20.7 2.6 16.6 34.3Bolivia 0.9 -0.6 1.4 0.1 -0.2 0.2 20.9 -13.0 32.1 1.6 -4.4 4.7Cameroon 0.9 -0.3 0.5 -0.1 0.0 0.7 52.9 -14.9 30.3 -3.3 2.5 38.3Congo -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 -14.3 -19.2 -21.7 -16.9 17.4 26.2Côte d'Ivoire -0.7 0.0 -1.3 0.3 -1.0 1.2 -20.6 0.7 -37.2 9.5 -28.6 35.0Egypt 36.4 6.3 -11.2 12.4 14.6 14.3 94.3 16.3 -28.9 32.1 37.8 37.1El Salvador 0.5 0.1 0.4 -0.5 0.3 0.3 31.3 4.8 26.4 -31.5 15.7 15.8Ghana 0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 -0.2 0.7 13.6 -9.4 -7.0 7.3 -9.6 32.3

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Guatemala -1.1 -1.7 0.1 0.2 -0.6 0.9 -25.6 -39.7 1.6 5.1 -13.1 20.6Honduras 0.5 -0.2 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.6 29.4 -12.9 15.6 -0.7 -6.7 34.0India 268.3 80.3 26.9 -44.2 121.0 84.4 102.4 30.6 10.2 -16.9 46.2 32.2Indonesia 66.3 2.4 10.6 3.4 30.5 19.3 98.1 3.6 15.7 5.0 45.2 28.6Jordan 4.8 0.8 -1.0 3.8 -1.3 2.6 111.6 18.0 -23.8 88.1 -31.0 60.3Kenya 1.1 0.0 -0.7 -0.1 0.2 1.7 25.0 1.0 -15.8 -3.2 3.8 39.2Morocco 6.0 -3.3 3.8 -1.9 4.0 3.5 44.1 -24.3 27.6 -14.3 29.2 25.9Myanmar -1.1 0.3 -1.9 0.0 -0.3 0.9 -21.6 5.3 -37.9 0.2 -5.9 16.8Nicaragua 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - -Nigeria 2.7 -8.0 2.6 10.6 -9.3 6.9 10.6 -31.3 10.1 41.6 -36.8 27.1Pakistan 31.6 6.8 4.1 -2.3 10.9 12.2 130.0 27.8 16.7 -9.6 44.9 50.2Philippines 4.8 -4.7 0.8 2.9 -3.6 9.5 14.4 -14.2 2.3 8.6 -10.7 28.4Sri Lanka 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.8 1.0 0.5 2.8 -6.3 -11.2 -21.3 26.7 14.9Sudan 1.6 -0.1 0.7 -0.1 -0.4 1.5 43.2 -2.9 18.2 -1.5 -10.0 39.5Syrian Arab Republic 15.1 5.6 -5.2 10.4 -1.5 5.8 124.8 46.0 -42.8 86.2 -12.2 47.7Tunisia 4.2 -0.9 1.3 0.4 0.9 2.4 53.2 -10.9 16.8 5.4 11.2 30.7Vietnam 2.4 1.3 -2.4 -5.4 5.6 3.3 16.1 9.1 -16.3 -36.3 37.5 22.2Yemen 2.8 0.0 -0.3 0.7 0.6 1.9 80.0 1.0 -10.0 18.8 16.4 53.8Zambia -0.6 0.1 -1.3 0.2 -0.6 0.9 -18.8 4.0 -39.1 7.1 -18.6 27.9LMI countries 453.7 83.2 29.5 -9.9 171.4 179.4 81.2 14.9 5.3 -1.8 30.7 32.1Benin -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.1 -25.0 18.2 0.0 -70.9 2.3 25.4Dem. Rep. of the Congo -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 0.6 -6.2 -5.0 -0.2 -7.0 -12.7 18.7Ethiopia 0.8 -0.2 0.0 0.6 -0.2 0.5 57.1 -11.1 0.0 43.6 -14.6 39.2Haiti 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.2 0.2 50.0 24.0 -3.7 35.4 -33.1 27.3Mozambique -1.4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.8 -0.2 0.2 -58.3 -18.1 -5.8 -35.4 -6.3 7.3Nepal 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 80.0 0.7 21.5 14.1 22.0 21.7Senegal 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.7 -0.1 0.6 5.0 12.4 0.0 -33.5 -4.7 30.8Tanzania 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.5 0.1 0.5 13.3 8.5 -0.3 -36.2 8.4 33.0Togo 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.2 50.0 4.1 0.0 32.9 -27.8 40.8Zimbabwe 8.4 3.5 0.3 -0.4 0.9 4.1 106.3 44.7 3.3 -4.9 11.6 51.5

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LI countries 8.7 3.4 0.2 -1.9 0.0 7.0 42.9 16.7 1.0 -9.5 0.0 34.6Note: EC, ECS, EI, PCG, and P refer to emission coefficient, energy consumption structure, energy intensity, income, and population, respectively.

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2000).


Australia 74.9 58.1 -35.2 -44.0 62.0 34.0 29.0 22.4 -13.6 -17.0 24.0 13.1Austria 5.3 1.8 -4.5 -6.9 12.5 2.5 9.6 3.3 -8.2 -12.6 22.6 4.5Bahrain 5.1 2.2 -2.8 -1.4 3.2 3.8 47.7 21.0 -25.9 -13.3 30.2 35.8Belgium 6.6 5.6 -19.8 -3.1 20.8 3.0 6.3 5.4 -18.9 -2.9 19.8 2.9Brunei Darussalam 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 71.4 27.7 -2.0 16.4 -4.2 33.5Canada 96.4 5.6 5.8 -45.7 83.3 47.4 23.0 1.3 1.4 -10.9 19.9 11.3Chile 19.3 3.4 -6.2 -0.7 17.5 5.3 65.6 11.6 -21.2 -2.5 59.5 18.2Curacao 2.9 1.6 -0.1 0.1 1.5 -0.3 107.4 60.4 -2.6 5.0 56.7 -12.2Cyprus 2.4 -0.2 0.5 -0.1 1.1 1.0 61.5 -4.1 14.0 -3.8 29.0 26.4Czech Republic -29.3 51.0 -54.8 -32.1 7.6 -1.0 -19.5 34.0 -36.5 -21.4 5.1 -0.7Denmark -0.9 4.3 -8.4 -9.7 11.1 1.9 -1.8 8.5 -16.8 -19.2 22.0 3.7Finland 0.5 27.4 -34.1 -5.1 10.1 2.0 0.9 51.0 -63.3 -9.4 18.9 3.7France 17.7 30.0 -53.5 -31.5 58.6 14.1 5.2 8.7 -15.6 -9.2 17.1 4.1Germany -131.7 831.2 -926.3 -205.5 139.2 29.7 -14.1 88.9 -99.0 -22.0 14.9 3.2Gibraltar 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 200.0 34.1 165.9 -45.8 33.6 12.2Greece 17.7 23.9 -24.5 -0.4 14.2 4.5 25.3 34.2 -35.1 -0.5 20.3 6.4Hungary -12.4 18.3 -22.4 -10.2 2.8 -0.9 -18.9 28.0 -34.2 -15.5 4.2 -1.4Iceland 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 10.5 -5.0 -15.9 4.4 16.6 10.4Ireland 10.7 10.2 -11.0 -11.8 20.5 2.7 35.5 34.0 -36.5 -39.1 68.1 9.1Israel 22.1 0.8 1.8 -4.6 11.4 12.7 67.4 2.5 5.5 -14.0 34.7 38.8Italy 31.2 25.3 -57.2 -2.7 64.2 1.6 8.0 6.5 -14.7 -0.7 16.5 0.4Japan 98.1 -56.0 -26.7 36.1 116.0 28.7 9.4 -5.4 -2.6 3.5 11.1 2.8Korea 195.8 -68.1 41.3 11.0 182.6 29.1 85.1 -29.6 18.0 4.8 79.4 12.6

12

Kuwait 18.5 -8.4 0.7 4.7 22.2 -0.9 66.5 -30.1 2.7 17.0 80.0 -3.1Luxembourg -3.0 -4.8 2.1 -4.3 2.9 1.1 -27.5 -44.1 18.9 -39.6 27.0 10.3Malta 0.5 0.6 -0.1 -1.0 0.8 0.2 31.3 35.1 -3.9 -59.4 48.3 11.1New Zealand 7.1 0.5 -0.7 -0.4 4.0 3.7 32.6 2.4 -3.3 -1.7 18.1 17.0Netherlands 12.5 45.4 -50.5 -32.2 40.1 9.7 8.5 30.9 -34.4 -21.9 27.3 6.6Norway 9.0 7.7 -3.8 -3.4 7.1 1.3 39.8 34.1 -16.7 -15.0 31.5 5.9Qatar 8.9 1.9 -1.5 -2.1 7.0 3.6 71.8 15.5 -12.3 -17.1 56.8 28.9Oman 10.3 4.9 -3.3 2.1 3.3 3.3 102.0 49.0 -32.8 20.5 32.8 32.5Poland -51.1 -27.4 23.0 -160.4 112.5 1.2 -15.0 -8.1 6.8 -47.2 33.1 0.4Portugal 19.6 13.9 -11.4 4.4 11.4 1.4 51.7 36.6 -30.1 11.5 30.2 3.6Saudi Arabia 83.5 -7.3 -8.6 51.0 2.7 45.6 55.3 -4.8 -5.7 33.8 1.8 30.2Singapore 13.1 -1.2 -2.4 -6.9 14.0 9.6 45.6 -4.2 -8.3 -24.2 48.9 33.4Slovak Republic -19.7 20.3 -31.9 -11.7 2.9 0.7 -36.0 37.1 -58.3 -21.3 5.2 1.3Spain 75.3 100.0 -96.1 6.5 54.9 10.1 37.2 49.4 -47.5 3.2 27.1 5.0Sweden -0.7 3.4 -4.5 -10.3 8.9 1.8 -1.4 6.6 -8.8 -20.1 17.4 3.6Switzerland 0.5 -0.1 -0.4 -3.7 2.0 2.6 1.3 -0.1 -1.0 -9.6 5.3 6.8Trinidad and Tobago 2.2 -3.3 1.1 0.5 3.6 0.3 27.8 -41.3 13.6 5.8 45.6 4.2United Arab Emirates 27.9 9.1 -9.3 -1.3 -4.7 34.1 53.8 17.5 -17.9 -2.6 -9.1 65.8United Kingdom -29.4 130.1 -201.4 -85.8 112.8 14.9 -5.4 23.7 -36.7 -15.6 20.5 2.7United States 819.2 1364.3 -1433.5 -864.3 1117.8 634.9 17.1 28.5 -30.0 -18.1 23.4 13.3Uruguay 1.5 0.1 0.1 -0.2 1.1 0.3 41.7 2.3 4.0 -4.3 31.8 7.8HI countries 1439.0 2626.7 -3070.5 -1487.0 2368.1 1001.7 13.3 24.2 -28.3 -13.7 21.9 9.2Albania -2.6 -0.1 -1.0 -1.9 0.7 -0.2 -45.6 -1.7 -18.1 -33.4 11.6 -3.9Algeria 10.9 -4.1 4.2 0.7 -0.1 10.2 21.8 -8.1 8.4 1.4 -0.3 20.4Argentina 40.1 -15.4 21.3 -18.3 37.8 14.7 40.4 -15.5 21.4 -18.4 38.1 14.8Brazil 108.0 -0.3 40.4 8.3 22.1 37.4 58.6 -0.1 21.9 4.5 12.0 20.3Bulgaria -32.3 3.1 -11.9 -17.8 -2.1 -3.7 -43.4 4.2 -16.0 -23.8 -2.8 -4.9China 1010.8 1306.2 -958.5 -1862.1 2254.3 270.9 48.7 62.9 -46.2 -89.7 108.6 13.0Colombia 8.3 -8.8 13.9 -9.9 4.9 8.2 18.1 -19.2 30.4 -21.5 10.6 17.9Costa Rica 1.9 -0.3 0.4 0.2 0.8 0.8 73.1 -13.4 15.3 7.8 31.7 31.6

13

Cuba -6.8 2.4 0.4 -5.2 -6.0 1.6 -19.8 7.0 1.2 -15.2 -17.4 4.7Dominican Republic 10.7 1.6 2.0 0.0 4.9 2.1 144.6 21.9 27.7 -0.2 66.8 28.4Ecuador 4.8 1.2 -1.6 2.1 -0.2 3.3 36.1 9.3 -12.4 15.7 -1.3 24.8Gabon 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.2 55.6 -3.6 36.2 6.0 -9.5 26.5Islamic Republic of Iran 141.0 9.5 -1.2 59.6 35.6 37.6 82.4 5.5 -0.7 34.8 20.8 21.9Iraq 18.0 5.1 -3.1 -5.6 3.4 18.2 34.4 9.8 -6.0 -10.7 6.4 34.8Jamaica 2.6 4.3 -4.3 1.1 0.7 0.8 36.7 60.4 -59.6 15.1 10.0 10.8Lebanon 8.5 0.8 -0.2 2.2 4.2 1.6 154.5 13.8 -4.4 40.4 75.6 29.1Libya 11.0 -5.7 6.1 9.9 -5.1 5.8 42.6 -22.2 23.8 38.2 -19.6 22.4Malaysia 65.3 1.5 3.1 9.1 32.7 18.8 131.4 3.1 6.3 18.3 65.8 37.9Mauritius 1.3 0.5 0.3 -0.3 0.7 0.2 118.2 41.4 23.6 -24.3 60.4 17.0Mexico 91.5 58.6 -23.5 -43.8 50.3 49.9 37.8 24.2 -9.7 -18.1 20.8 20.7Panama 2.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.1 0.7 85.1 2.6 6.5 6.1 41.7 28.2Paraguay 1.4 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.6 73.7 2.6 40.4 -1.1 1.1 30.7Peru 7.3 3.5 -1.3 -3.4 4.7 3.8 38.2 18.4 -7.0 -18.0 24.8 20.1Romania -82.7 31.2 -47.5 -51.6 -10.6 -4.1 -49.1 18.5 -28.2 -30.7 -6.3 -2.4South Africa 36.7 33.5 -44.0 0.0 -4.9 52.1 15.1 13.7 -18.1 0.0 -2.0 21.4Thailand 71.4 -39.7 50.0 12.9 36.2 11.9 88.3 -49.0 61.8 16.0 44.7 14.8Turkey 74.0 20.4 -4.8 1.6 31.3 25.5 58.1 16.0 -3.7 1.2 24.6 20.0Venezuela 22.5 -2.9 -1.6 5.4 -0.3 21.8 24.0 -3.1 -1.7 5.8 -0.3 23.3UMI countries 1626.4 1406.3 -961.3 -1906.5 2497.0 590.9 41.9 36.2 -24.7 -49.1 64.3 15.2Angola 0.7 0.0 -0.1 0.5 -1.0 1.3 17.9 0.1 -3.8 13.4 -24.5 32.7Bangladesh 9.5 0.5 3.3 -1.4 3.8 3.4 83.3 4.3 29.0 -12.6 33.3 29.4Bolivia 1.9 -1.1 -0.9 1.6 1.1 1.2 36.5 -21.3 -16.4 30.9 20.4 23.0Cameroon 0.2 0.1 -0.5 0.3 -0.4 0.7 7.7 3.8 -20.1 11.9 -15.4 27.5Congo -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 -16.7 1.9 -6.4 -25.1 -12.6 25.5Côte d'Ivoire 3.7 3.0 -0.7 0.7 -0.2 0.9 137.0 111.8 -26.3 26.0 -9.0 34.6Egypt 21.6 -2.1 4.4 -16.2 18.9 16.7 28.8 -2.8 5.8 -21.6 25.2 22.2El Salvador 3.1 0.8 0.7 -7.8 9.0 0.4 147.6 37.9 33.2 -370 428.7 18.0Ghana 2.5 0.6 1.3 -0.9 0.6 0.9 100.0 23.6 51.4 -35.8 23.5 37.3

14

Guatemala 4.9 1.1 1.3 0.3 0.9 1.2 153.1 35.8 40.7 10.1 28.7 37.8Honduras 2.6 1.1 0.8 -0.3 0.1 0.9 104.5 45.0 31.8 -12.5 6.0 34.2India 360.0 327.5 -221.7 -122.5 244.3 132.5 67.9 61.7 -41.8 -23.1 46.1 25.0Indonesia 121.4 4.7 31.0 14.3 42.6 28.8 90.7 3.5 23.1 10.7 31.8 21.5Jordan 4.6 0.3 -0.2 -1.2 1.6 4.0 50.5 3.8 -2.1 -13.1 17.4 44.5Kenya 2.3 1.7 -1.2 0.5 -0.7 1.9 41.8 30.7 -21.0 10.0 -13.2 35.3Morocco 9.9 0.0 1.1 2.0 3.3 3.5 50.5 -0.2 5.6 10.1 16.9 18.1Myanmar 5.3 0.0 4.2 -3.2 3.5 0.8 132.5 0.5 104.1 -79.7 88.0 19.7Nicaragua 1.7 0.4 0.7 -0.3 0.4 0.5 94.4 24.5 38.3 -15.7 19.9 27.4Nigeria 15.7 2.4 4.2 2.6 -2.3 8.8 55.9 8.7 14.8 9.3 -8.2 31.3Pakistan 38.5 8.8 1.0 0.4 9.9 18.5 68.9 15.8 1.7 0.8 17.6 33.0Philippines 30.0 8.1 5.0 2.5 2.6 11.7 78.7 21.2 13.1 6.7 7.0 30.8Sri Lanka 6.8 2.0 2.2 -0.6 2.7 0.6 183.8 52.8 58.5 -17.1 74.0 15.6Sudan 0.2 0.9 -1.9 -1.7 1.3 1.6 3.8 16.3 -35.7 -32.0 24.4 30.8Syrian Arab Republic 9.8 2.3 -4.6 -2.7 6.0 8.8 36.0 8.3 -16.9 -9.8 22.2 32.2Tunisia 5.5 -0.9 0.7 -0.9 4.3 2.3 43.0 -7.2 5.7 -7.2 33.4 18.3Vietnam 29.5 0.3 16.2 -7.1 15.7 4.5 155.5 1.6 85.2 -37.6 82.7 23.6Yemen 7.0 1.2 -0.1 0.8 1.5 3.7 111.1 18.6 -1.4 11.9 23.4 58.5Zambia -0.9 0.0 -1.2 0.0 -0.2 0.6 -34.6 -1.3 -45.8 -0.8 -8.7 21.8LMI countries 697.9 363.6 -155.2 -140.5 369.2 260.8 68.6 35.8 -15.3 -13.8 36.3 25.6Benin 1.1 -0.2 0.0 1.0 0.1 0.2 366.7 -61.4 0.0 320.6 31.0 76.5Dem. Rep. of the Congo -2.1 -0.8 0.2 -0.6 -1.3 0.4 -70.0 -27.3 6.2 -21.6 -41.7 14.5Ethiopia 1.0 -0.4 0.0 0.6 -0.1 0.9 45.5 -16.4 0.0 28.9 -6.4 39.4Haiti 0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.6 -0.2 0.2 55.6 -18.7 3.8 65.5 -18.3 23.4Mozambique 0.3 -0.1 0.1 -0.5 0.4 0.3 30.0 -8.2 6.8 -45.3 42.9 33.8Nepal 2.2 0.0 0.1 1.3 0.4 0.4 244.4 -3.7 11.1 141.2 49.4 46.5Senegal 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.7 66.7 2.0 0.0 25.1 4.6 35.1Tanzania 0.7 -0.2 -0.1 0.4 0.0 0.6 52.9 -15.0 -5.1 27.0 0.8 45.2Togo 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 50.0 -14.7 0.0 38.0 -6.9 33.5Zimbabwe -3.0 -0.2 -1.5 -3.9 -0.1 2.7 -18.4 -1.1 -9.3 -23.8 -0.8 16.5

15

LI countries 2.4 -2.1 -1.2 -0.4 -0.7 6.7 9.0 -7.7 -4.5 -1.5 -2.4 25.1Note: EC, ECS, EI, PCG, and P refer to emission coefficient, energy consumption structure, energy intensity, income, and population, respectively.

16


2010).


Australia 55.0 73.3 -95.0 -31.1 57.4 50.4 16.5 22.0 -28.5 -9.3 17.2 15.1Austria 4.5 9.2 -15.1 1.1 6.7 2.7 7.4 15.1 -25.0 1.8 11.0 4.5Bahrain 9.7 1.9 -1.5 -1.2 -2.1 12.7 61.4 11.7 -9.6 -7.7 -13.1 80.1Belgium -11.3 -0.2 -14.6 -13.3 10.4 6.4 -10.1 -0.2 -13.1 -11.9 9.4 5.7Brunei Darussalam 5.6 4.9 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 466.7 411.7 20.5 18.2 -2.2 18.4Canada 11.9 28.0 -39.4 -72.3 43.5 52.0 2.3 5.4 -7.6 -14.0 8.4 10.1Chile 19.8 17.8 -9.9 -12.2 17.8 6.2 40.7 36.6 -20.2 -25.0 36.5 12.8Curacao -1.2 -1.8 0.9 -1.0 0.3 0.5 -21.4 -32.9 15.8 -18.6 4.9 9.3Cyprus 0.9 0.6 -0.6 -1.1 0.9 1.1 14.3 9.8 -9.6 -17.4 14.1 17.4Czech Republic -9.5 64.4 -84.4 -25.7 33.7 2.5 -7.9 53.3 -69.8 -21.3 27.9 2.0Denmark -3.9 7.9 -14.0 -1.4 1.8 1.8 -7.9 15.9 -28.4 -2.8 3.7 3.7Finland 7.0 25.7 -25.7 -2.7 7.7 2.0 12.9 47.3 -47.3 -4.9 14.1 3.8France -24.7 8.3 -45.6 -29.3 19.2 22.7 -6.8 2.3 -12.6 -8.1 5.3 6.3Germany -63.3 -13.1 -25.5 -93.8 73.2 -4.1 -7.9 -1.6 -3.2 -11.7 9.1 -0.5Gibraltar 0.2 0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 66.7 28.5 -52.2 64.3 18.0 8.1Greece -4.4 31.7 -37.6 -13.3 12.4 2.5 -5.0 36.2 -43.0 -15.2 14.1 2.8Hungary -6.3 -1.1 -8.1 -7.1 11.0 -1.0 -11.9 -2.1 -15.3 -13.4 20.8 -2.0Iceland -0.1 0.1 -1.1 0.5 0.2 0.2 -4.8 5.9 -54.3 23.7 10.2 9.7Ireland -1.5 -0.9 -2.3 -10.5 5.0 7.2 -3.7 -2.1 -5.7 -25.7 12.2 17.7Israel -15.8 -20.6 -2.2 -1.5 3.0 5.6 -28.8 -37.6 -4.1 -2.8 5.5 10.2Italy -32.1 8.5 -45.7 -7.3 -3.7 16.1 -7.7 2.0 -10.9 -1.7 -0.9 3.8Japan -33.5 22.9 -13.7 -113.8 60.3 10.8 -2.9 2.0 -1.2 -10.0 5.3 0.9Korea 112.6 160.6 -182.6 -70.5 180.1 25.0 26.4 37.7 -42.9 -16.6 42.3 5.9

17

Kuwait 30.7 -4.3 2.4 5.3 4.4 22.9 66.3 -9.3 5.2 11.4 9.5 49.5Luxembourg 2.6 1.2 -0.8 -0.2 1.1 1.4 32.9 15.4 -10.3 -2.9 13.4 17.3Malta 0.5 -0.2 0.4 -0.2 0.3 0.1 23.8 -11.7 20.6 -7.6 15.8 6.8New Zealand 1.5 3.1 -3.8 -5.3 3.9 3.6 5.2 10.7 -13.0 -18.3 13.5 12.3Netherlands 7.9 28.6 -37.3 -4.5 14.2 6.9 5.0 17.9 -23.4 -2.8 8.9 4.3Norway 5.3 1.8 -5.3 3.4 2.4 2.9 16.8 5.6 -16.6 10.9 7.7 9.2Qatar 35.8 17.1 -14.7 -11.4 5.2 39.7 168.1 80.1 -69.2 -53.4 24.4 186.2Oman 22.0 -40.3 35.3 17.3 0.9 8.7 107.8 -198 173.2 84.9 4.5 42.8Poland 16.5 -24.3 4.4 -77.7 115.8 -1.7 5.7 -8.4 1.5 -26.9 40.1 -0.6Portugal -10.7 9.7 -18.0 -6.1 2.4 1.4 -18.6 16.8 -31.3 -10.6 4.1 2.4Saudi Arabia 184.4 -22.3 3.6 97.8 16.9 88.4 78.6 -9.5 1.5 41.7 7.2 37.7Singapore 1.4 -36.8 25.9 -10.4 13.4 9.3 3.3 -88.1 62.1 -24.8 32.0 22.2Slovak Republic -0.5 8.8 -9.5 -16.3 16.5 0.0 -1.4 25.2 -27.1 -46.6 47.1 0.0Spain -16.3 -5.7 -23.1 -45.3 21.4 36.4 -5.9 -2.0 -8.3 -16.3 7.7 13.1Sweden -6.6 0.4 -10.1 -6.6 7.2 2.6 -13.0 0.7 -20.0 -13.1 14.2 5.2Switzerland 0.9 0.4 -1.3 -5.2 3.7 3.3 2.3 0.9 -3.3 -13.3 9.5 8.5Trinidad and Tobago 12.3 2.0 -0.8 2.1 8.2 0.7 121.8 19.7 -7.6 21.1 81.6 7.1United Arab Emirates 74.7 2.9 -5.4 34.7 -65.4 107.9 93.6 3.6 -6.8 43.5 -81.9 135.2United Kingdom -44.5 35.1 -34.9 -120.6 44.3 31.6 -8.6 6.8 -6.7 -23.2 8.5 6.1United States -278.4 270.9 -408.0 -1031.7 388.0 502.3 -5.0 4.8 -7.3 -18.4 6.9 9.0Uruguay 0.8 0.3 -1.0 -0.1 1.5 0.1 15.7 6.6 -20.5 -2.0 29.9 1.7HI countries 59.9 676.4 -1165.9 -1688.0 1145.3 1092.1 0.5 5.5 -9.5 -13.8 9.4 8.9Albania 0.8 -0.4 0.6 -1.2 1.9 -0.2 25.8 -12.3 21.0 -38.6 62.3 -6.5Algeria 33.9 -7.7 11.3 1.3 17.7 11.2 55.8 -12.6 18.7 2.2 29.1 18.5Argentina 28.2 0.9 -9.5 -13.5 34.3 16.0 20.2 0.6 -6.8 -9.6 24.6 11.5Brazil 78.2 -10.3 -26.2 -3.8 80.6 37.9 26.8 -3.5 -8.9 -1.3 27.6 13.0Bulgaria 2.2 -0.7 4.6 -20.5 23.1 -4.3 5.2 -1.7 10.8 -48.5 54.8 -10.2China 4597.3 442.1 86.2 -978.9 4757.3 290.6 148.9 14.3 2.8 -31.7 154.1 9.4Colombia 6.1 1.7 -6.4 -11.9 15.5 7.3 11.3 3.1 -11.8 -22.1 28.6 13.5Costa Rica 2.1 0.9 -1.3 0.2 1.5 0.8 46.7 19.9 -28.1 4.8 32.6 17.4

18

Cuba 5.3 4.2 2.1 -16.1 14.7 0.5 19.5 15.3 7.7 -58.8 53.6 1.8Dominican Republic -1.5 -2.8 0.9 -7.5 5.5 2.4 -8.3 -15.7 4.9 -41.3 30.6 13.3Ecuador 13.0 2.8 3.2 -2.6 5.7 4.0 71.8 15.2 17.7 -14.6 31.3 22.3Gabon 1.2 0.2 -1.3 2.1 -0.3 0.6 85.7 11.2 -94.2 149.4 -20.2 39.6Islamic Republic of Iran 186.2 -14.9 1.1 21.0 131.6 47.3 59.6 -4.8 0.4 6.7 42.2 15.2Iraq 33.1 44.5 -42.9 4.8 3.7 22.9 47.0 63.2 -60.9 6.9 5.3 32.5Jamaica -2.9 -2.4 2.4 -3.4 0.1 0.5 -29.3 -24.6 24.2 -34.5 0.7 5.0Lebanon 3.7 3.2 -3.8 -4.7 4.3 4.6 26.4 23.2 -26.9 -33.6 30.7 33.0Libya 11.3 -2.1 1.8 -7.1 12.7 6.0 30.7 -5.7 4.9 -19.2 34.5 16.2Malaysia 74.8 15.1 0.8 -6.4 37.4 27.9 65.0 13.1 0.7 -5.6 32.5 24.3Mauritius 1.2 0.9 -0.5 -0.4 1.1 0.2 50.0 37.4 -19.3 -18.7 44.2 6.3Mexico 107.0 52.5 -5.8 -2.9 12.2 51.0 32.1 15.7 -1.7 -0.9 3.7 15.3Panama 4.0 0.3 1.6 -1.5 2.5 1.2 82.9 5.7 32.9 -32.1 51.3 25.0Paraguay 1.4 0.0 0.6 -0.5 0.7 0.6 42.4 -1.3 18.8 -15.7 21.7 18.9Peru 14.7 -24.6 24.5 -2.3 13.1 3.9 55.7 -93.2 92.9 -8.7 49.7 14.9Romania -11.0 -23.8 15.5 -36.5 42.1 -8.2 -12.9 -27.8 18.1 -42.7 49.1 -9.6South Africa 126.2 117.3 -79.5 -27.0 72.4 43.0 45.0 41.8 -28.3 -9.6 25.8 15.3Thailand 71.1 -78.7 59.9 7.2 70.7 12.0 46.7 -51.7 39.3 4.7 46.4 7.9Turkey 64.2 -14.0 0.1 -12.1 59.3 30.8 31.9 -6.9 0.1 -6.0 29.5 15.3Venezuela 55.3 -4.4 10.9 5.2 19.5 24.1 47.6 -3.7 9.4 4.4 16.8 20.7UMI countries 5507.1 499.6 51.2 -1119.1 5440.8 634.7 99.9 9.1 0.9 -20.3 98.7 11.5Angola 10.5 0.4 5.5 -3.0 4.5 3.1 228.3 9.7 118.7 -65.0 98.3 66.6Bangladesh 29.0 10.7 1.5 -1.0 13.1 4.8 138.8 51.1 7.0 -5.0 62.7 22.9Bolivia 6.6 -0.4 4.4 -1.3 2.0 1.7 93.0 -5.0 62.5 -17.7 28.7 24.5Cameroon 1.8 1.1 0.3 -1.0 0.4 1.0 64.3 38.4 12.2 -36.4 15.3 34.7Congo 1.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.3 220.0 7.9 44.3 82.0 27.7 58.1Côte d'Ivoire -0.2 2.7 -5.5 1.9 -0.6 1.3 -3.1 42.5 -85.5 29.1 -9.0 19.8Egypt 78.0 -1.8 2.4 15.2 37.8 24.3 80.7 -1.8 2.5 15.8 39.1 25.1El Salvador 0.6 0.1 0.0 -8.1 8.4 0.3 11.5 1.7 -0.2 -157 161.4 5.2Ghana 4.6 1.0 2.3 -2.6 2.1 1.8 92.0 19.8 45.7 -52.7 42.8 36.4

19

Guatemala 1.0 -0.9 -1.3 0.4 0.9 2.0 12.3 -11.5 -16.0 5.1 10.7 24.2Honduras 2.9 0.9 -0.4 0.1 1.0 1.3 64.4 19.1 -10.0 3.0 22.9 29.5India 703.2 -317.2 474.9 -327.9 685.2 188.2 79.0 -35.6 53.3 -36.8 77.0 21.1Indonesia 120.9 20.1 6.9 -64.6 116.0 42.5 47.4 7.9 2.7 -25.3 45.4 16.6Jordan -0.3 -1.7 -3.6 -3.3 3.7 4.6 -2.2 -12.8 -26.1 -23.8 26.7 33.8Kenya 3.5 -0.8 1.1 -0.8 1.4 2.6 44.9 -10.5 14.7 -10.5 18.1 33.1Morocco 16.5 36.9 -36.9 -1.3 13.5 4.3 55.9 125.1 -125 -4.5 45.7 14.5Myanmar -1.4 -0.9 -1.0 -9.2 8.9 0.7 -15.1 -9.4 -10.5 -98.6 95.7 7.7Nicaragua 0.8 0.1 0.0 -0.4 0.6 0.5 22.9 2.5 0.2 -11.5 17.0 14.7Nigeria 12.0 1.3 -5.8 -25.7 29.3 12.8 27.4 3.0 -13.1 -58.7 67.0 29.3Pakistan 35.2 1.1 2.7 -14.0 22.5 23.0 37.3 1.2 2.8 -14.8 23.8 24.3Philippines 16.2 -8.3 23.9 -31.2 19.3 12.6 13.2 -6.8 19.5 -25.5 15.7 10.3Sri Lanka 2.2 0.1 0.4 -3.9 4.8 0.9 18.1 0.6 3.0 -32.3 39.7 7.0Sudan 9.5 -1.3 8.6 -4.1 4.0 2.2 172.7 -23.2 156.7 -73.8 72.9 40.0Syrian Arab Republic 18.9 12.2 -9.0 -4.4 8.8 11.3 51.1 33.0 -24.2 -11.9 23.7 30.5Tunisia 6.0 -3.9 3.0 -1.4 6.4 1.9 34.7 -22.3 17.2 -8.0 37.1 10.7Vietnam 81.9 -16.3 42.7 6.1 40.6 8.7 185.3 -36.8 96.7 13.8 91.9 19.7Yemen 7.1 0.0 -1.2 1.5 2.3 4.6 53.4 -0.4 -8.8 10.9 17.3 34.3Zambia -0.1 -0.4 -0.1 -0.6 0.7 0.4 -5.9 -25.6 -5.6 -37.9 39.1 24.1LMI countries 1168.0 -265.2 516.2 -484.3 1037.9 363.5 68.0 -15.4 30.0 -28.2 60.4 21.2Benin 3.2 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.2 0.8 228.6 2.9 0.0 152.6 16.8 56.2Dem. Rep. of the Congo 0.9 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.4 100.0 -9.5 0.0 43.7 20.4 45.5Ethiopia 2.8 0.2 -0.1 -1.0 2.4 1.2 87.5 5.7 -2.0 -30.4 76.1 38.1Haiti 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.7 -0.3 0.3 50.0 1.9 0.0 46.9 -18.1 19.3Mozambique 1.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.8 0.5 84.6 15.6 -13.3 -20.9 64.6 38.6Nepal 1.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.9 0.5 32.3 -1.6 -1.1 -9.3 29.4 14.9Senegal 1.9 0.9 -0.7 0.1 0.5 1.1 54.3 24.9 -19.3 1.9 15.6 31.1Tanzania 3.5 1.1 -0.1 0.4 1.2 1.0 134.6 42.1 -5.0 13.9 44.7 38.9Togo 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 -0.1 0.4 133.3 -1.1 0.0 100.8 -8.7 42.3Zimbabwe -4.0 2.1 -0.3 -1.1 -6.3 1.6 -30.1 15.8 -2.4 -8.3 -47.1 11.9

20

LI countries 12.3 4.4 -1.4 1.9 -0.3 7.7 38.9 13.8 -4.4 6.0 -0.9 24.4Note: EC, ECS, EI, PCG, and P refer to emission coefficient, energy consumption structure, energy intensity, income, and population, respectively.

21


2015).


Australia -8.2 -4.4 3.1 -58.5 22.1 29.5 -2.1 -1.1 0.8 -15.1 5.7 7.6Austria -6.6 -2.9 -1.9 -5.1 1.3 2.0 -10.2 -4.5 -2.8 -7.8 2.0 3.0Bahrain 4.6 -2.0 3.4 -1.7 2.2 2.8 18.0 -8.0 13.1 -6.7 8.6 10.9Belgium -10.9 -8.8 9.3 -16.0 1.5 3.2 -10.9 -8.8 9.3 -16.0 1.5 3.2Brunei Darussalam -0.8 9.0 -8.7 -1.1 -0.5 0.5 -11.8 132.8 -128.6 -15.5 -7.2 6.7Canada 20.6 24.8 -14.2 -47.6 29.3 28.3 3.9 4.7 -2.7 -9.0 5.6 5.4Chile 13.2 16.3 -14.7 -2.7 11.0 3.3 19.3 23.7 -21.4 -4.0 16.1 4.8Curacao 0.5 2.1 -1.9 2.1 -2.2 0.3 11.4 48.5 -42.3 48.0 -49.2 6.4Cyprus -1.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.6 -0.8 0.3 -19.4 -1.2 -2.0 -8.8 -11.3 3.8Czech Republic -13.4 7.1 -13.3 -15.9 8.0 0.7 -12.0 6.4 -12.0 -14.3 7.2 0.6Denmark -15.2 -9.2 1.2 -9.3 1.2 0.9 -33.3 -20.2 2.6 -20.3 2.7 2.0Finland -20.3 -8.9 -5.4 -5.8 -1.2 1.1 -33.1 -14.5 -8.9 -9.5 -2.0 1.8France -51.2 -20.9 -12.3 -32.9 7.4 7.5 -15.2 -6.2 -3.7 -9.8 2.2 2.2Germany -29.7 -72.3 84.3 -101.2 60.4 -0.8 -4.0 -9.8 11.4 -13.7 8.2 -0.1Gibraltar 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 0.0 20.0 -9.5 6.2 3.4Greece -19.1 -9.2 2.8 1.9 -12.6 -2.0 -23.0 -11.0 3.4 2.3 -15.2 -2.4Hungary -5.1 -4.2 1.3 -6.4 4.9 -0.7 -10.9 -9.0 2.8 -13.7 10.5 -1.5Iceland 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.2 0.1 5.0 0.1 1.9 -8.1 7.8 3.2Ireland -4.2 -0.5 -0.8 -16.1 12.2 0.9 -10.7 -1.2 -2.0 -40.9 31.0 2.4Israel -2.2 -27.7 25.8 -6.6 2.8 3.5 -5.6 -70.9 66.1 -17.0 7.1 9.1Italy -61.6 12.5 -28.0 -35.7 -19.0 8.6 -15.9 3.2 -7.2 -9.2 -4.9 2.2Japan 24.1 66.0 123.9 -220.5 62.9 -8.1 2.2 6.0 11.2 -19.9 5.7 -0.7Korea 32.7 -47.6 32.1 -33.7 65.8 16.1 6.1 -8.8 6.0 -6.3 12.2 3.0

22

Kuwait 8.4 -7.6 9.7 -8.1 -7.6 22.0 10.9 -9.9 12.7 -10.6 -9.8 28.6Luxembourg -1.9 -0.8 0.1 -2.6 0.2 1.1 -18.1 -7.4 0.8 -24.3 2.3 10.5Malta -1.0 -1.2 0.8 -1.1 0.4 0.1 -38.5 -44.8 29.1 -41.1 15.1 3.3New Zealand 0.7 -3.6 0.9 -0.7 2.5 1.7 2.3 -12.0 2.9 -2.2 8.1 5.5Netherlands -14.3 -22.1 27.5 -26.0 3.3 3.1 -8.6 -13.2 16.4 -15.6 2.0 1.8Norway -1.2 0.2 2.0 -5.6 0.7 1.5 -3.3 0.5 5.5 -15.1 1.8 4.0Qatar 22.9 -6.7 -4.2 14.2 -3.0 22.6 40.1 -11.7 -7.3 24.9 -5.2 39.5Oman 21.9 -4.6 10.7 5.3 -6.4 17.0 51.7 -10.9 25.3 12.4 -15.1 40.0Poland -26.0 18.8 -28.3 -59.9 43.9 -0.4 -8.5 6.2 -9.3 -19.6 14.4 -0.1Portugal -0.4 23.7 -21.1 -1.0 -1.1 -0.9 -0.9 50.7 -45.1 -2.2 -2.3 -2.0Saudi Arabia 112.4 61.0 -32.9 -34.3 52.2 66.4 26.8 14.6 -7.8 -8.2 12.5 15.8Singapore 0.0 -4.0 3.7 -8.1 4.8 3.6 0.0 - - - - -Slovak Republic -6.1 4.3 -7.8 -6.4 3.7 0.2 -17.7 12.4 -22.6 -18.7 10.7 0.5Spain -15.3 40.7 -37.8 -15.8 -1.7 -0.7 -5.9 15.6 -14.5 -6.1 -0.6 -0.3Sweden -9.3 -3.8 -1.1 -8.5 2.4 1.7 -21.1 -8.6 -2.6 -19.4 5.5 3.9Switzerland -6.1 -0.9 -2.7 -5.4 0.9 2.1 -15.3 -2.3 -6.8 -13.7 2.3 5.2Trinidad and Tobago 0.4 1.1 -0.1 -1.1 0.0 0.4 1.8 4.8 -0.2 -4.8 0.1 1.9United Arab Emirates 25.7 4.2 -4.3 -13.8 22.7 16.9 16.6 2.7 -2.8 -9.0 14.7 11.0United Kingdom -89.8 -42.9 4.6 -95.5 28.2 15.8 -18.9 -9.0 1.0 -20.1 5.9 3.3United States -346.8 118.0 -402.0 -608.0 357.0 188.2 -6.5 2.2 -7.6 -11.4 6.7 3.5Uruguay 0.5 -0.2 -0.5 0.2 0.9 0.1 8.5 -2.8 -9.1 3.3 15.3 1.7HI countries -479.3 92.5 -297.0 -1496.0 760.8 460.3 -3.9 0.8 -2.4 -12.2 6.2 3.7Albania 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - -Algeria 35.4 -6.8 9.1 15.0 7.2 11.0 37.4 -7.2 9.6 15.8 7.6 11.6Argentina 23.8 268.3 -260.2 2.9 3.6 9.2 14.2 160.1 -155.2 1.7 2.2 5.5Brazil 80.4 45.3 -11.5 24.4 3.6 18.6 21.7 12.2 -3.1 6.6 1.0 5.0Bulgaria -0.8 5.0 -7.5 -1.7 4.7 -1.3 -1.8 11.3 -16.9 -3.8 10.5 -3.0China 1328.0 760.1 -755.4 -1828.3 2945.6 206.0 17.3 9.9 -9.8 -23.8 38.3 2.7Colombia 12.1 0.4 6.4 -9.5 11.6 3.2 20.1 0.7 10.7 -15.8 19.2 5.4Costa Rica 0.3 -0.6 0.5 -0.8 0.9 0.4 4.5 -9.7 8.1 -12.7 13.4 5.5

23

Cuba -2.8 2.5 -4.6 -5.1 4.0 0.4 -8.6 7.8 -14.0 -15.6 12.1 1.1Dominican Republic 4.7 4.2 -1.2 -2.4 3.1 1.0 28.3 25.1 -7.2 -14.5 18.7 6.3Ecuador 6.5 1.2 -3.0 1.0 4.7 2.6 20.9 3.8 -9.6 3.2 15.1 8.4Gabon 0.6 -0.1 0.7 -0.7 0.3 0.5 23.1 -2.1 25.2 -28.3 10.2 18.1Islamic Republic of Iran 53.9 -5.7 -17.1 87.9 -43.9 32.6 10.8 -1.1 -3.4 17.6 -8.8 6.5Iraq 28.6 23.0 -23.1 -8.9 18.8 18.8 27.6 22.2 -22.3 -8.6 18.2 18.2Jamaica 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 -0.9 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0Lebanon 5.0 -1.3 2.8 1.6 -4.2 6.0 28.2 -7.1 15.8 9.2 -23.7 34.0Libya -2.8 36.4 -30.4 27.6 -37.0 0.5 -5.8 75.7 -63.1 57.4 -76.9 1.0Malaysia 30.5 -6.8 5.1 -20.6 34.7 18.2 16.1 -3.6 2.7 -10.9 18.3 9.6Mauritius 0.4 -0.5 0.3 -0.1 0.6 0.0 11.1 -13.6 9.6 -3.7 17.8 1.0Mexico 1.9 -5.5 -14.1 -40.8 31.2 31.1 0.4 -1.2 -3.2 -9.3 7.1 7.1Panama 1.1 -0.7 0.2 -1.9 2.7 0.8 12.5 -8.5 2.1 -21.4 31.1 9.1Paraguay 1.0 0.0 0.4 -0.6 0.9 0.3 21.3 -0.5 8.8 -13.1 18.7 7.4Peru 8.0 -5.5 3.0 0.0 7.5 3.0 19.5 -13.3 7.4 -0.1 18.3 7.2Romania -5.6 -8.5 9.6 -15.3 10.2 -1.5 -7.5 -11.4 12.8 -20.5 13.7 -2.1South Africa 20.9 -45.8 65.2 -43.8 13.5 31.7 5.1 -11.3 16.0 -10.8 3.3 7.8Thailand 24.1 -17.3 9.0 -1.3 28.7 5.0 10.8 -7.7 4.0 -0.6 12.8 2.2Turkey 51.2 40.9 -44.4 -45.0 76.7 22.9 19.3 15.4 -16.7 -16.9 28.9 8.6Venezuela -34.6 15.6 -19.9 -32.2 -9.0 10.9 -20.2 9.1 -11.6 -18.8 -5.2 6.3UMI countries 1671.8 1097.7 -1079.7 -1898.7 3120.6 431.9 15.2 10.0 -9.8 -17.2 28.3 3.9Angola 5.3 0.4 1.2 -0.4 1.0 3.1 35.1 2.8 8.2 -2.9 6.5 20.5Bangladesh 20.6 4.4 3.3 -5.3 14.8 3.4 41.3 8.8 6.7 -10.6 29.6 6.9Bolivia 4.6 -0.8 1.0 0.1 3.0 1.2 33.6 -5.5 7.1 1.0 21.9 9.1Cameroon 0.9 -0.5 0.9 -0.7 0.6 0.7 19.6 -11.7 19.4 -15.5 12.7 14.7Congo 0.6 0.0 -0.3 0.5 0.1 0.2 37.5 -0.6 -16.4 31.3 7.8 15.3Côte d'Ivoire 3.5 0.0 1.6 -0.5 1.5 1.0 56.5 0.1 25.8 -8.6 23.5 15.7Egypt 22.5 27.9 -20.5 -9.5 4.4 20.2 12.9 16.0 -11.7 -5.5 2.5 11.6El Salvador 0.7 0.1 0.7 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 12.1 2.1 12.4 -3.5 -1.4 2.5Ghana 1.9 -2.1 1.4 -1.3 2.6 1.2 19.8 -22.0 15.0 -13.6 27.4 12.9

24

Guatemala 2.3 -0.6 0.7 0.3 0.8 1.1 25.3 -6.6 7.3 3.5 9.3 11.8Honduras 1.9 0.5 -0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 25.7 6.8 -5.2 4.8 9.2 10.0India 471.0 150.6 -52.0 -224.1 484.9 111.6 29.6 9.5 -3.3 -14.1 30.4 7.0Indonesia 65.7 18.5 19.5 -81.8 84.0 25.4 17.5 4.9 5.2 -21.8 22.3 6.8Jordan 5.8 3.4 -0.7 0.9 -1.7 3.8 43.3 25.5 -4.9 6.8 -12.9 28.7Kenya 2.9 -1.8 1.5 -0.3 1.7 1.7 25.7 -15.5 13.4 -2.4 15.2 14.9Morocco 8.5 5.9 -3.5 -3.8 6.2 3.6 18.5 12.9 -7.5 -8.2 13.5 7.7Myanmar 16.5 1.7 9.3 0.5 4.4 0.6 208.9 21.4 118.1 5.9 55.5 7.9Nicaragua 0.8 -0.7 0.3 0.0 1.0 0.3 18.6 -17.3 7.3 -0.4 22.7 6.4Nigeria 8.6 -18.6 18.2 -4.7 5.7 7.9 15.4 -33.3 32.7 -8.4 10.3 14.2Pakistan 16.4 -1.5 3.2 -12.4 12.6 14.4 12.7 -1.2 2.5 -9.5 9.7 11.1Philippines 26.8 9.8 -5.8 -3.0 18.4 7.3 34.8 12.8 -7.5 -3.8 23.9 9.5Sri Lanka 7.1 2.9 1.8 -2.0 3.8 0.6 57.3 23.3 14.7 -16.2 30.6 4.9Sudan 0.4 2.7 -1.4 -2.5 -0.2 1.8 2.7 18.2 -9.3 -16.7 -1.4 11.8Syrian Arab Republic -29.7 -1.0 1.6 19.0 -44.9 -4.5 -53.1 -1.8 2.9 34.0 -80.2 -8.1Tunisia 2.3 2.3 -1.4 -0.8 0.7 1.4 9.9 10.1 -6.1 -3.2 3.1 6.1Vietnam 42.2 0.7 8.7 -9.0 34.0 7.8 33.5 0.6 6.9 -7.1 26.9 6.2Yemen -11.2 0.0 0.0 -5.7 -7.4 1.8 -54.9 0.2 0.1 -27.9 -36.4 9.0Zambia 1.7 0.6 0.6 -0.1 0.2 0.3 106.3 40.2 39.5 -7.8 13.8 20.6LMI countries 700.6 205.1 -9.9 -346.4 632.9 219.0 24.4 7.2 -0.3 -12.2 22.1 7.6Benin 0.7 0.2 -0.1 -0.6 0.4 0.7 15.2 4.7 -1.5 -12.2 9.4 14.8Dem. Rep. of the Congo 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 50.0 0.8 0.0 3.0 25.7 20.5Ethiopia 4.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 2.8 1.0 70.0 0.0 3.1 3.6 46.4 16.9Haiti 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 52.4 24.8 0.0 7.3 11.8 8.5Mozambique 2.6 0.9 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 108.3 36.1 4.3 18.7 28.4 20.9Nepal 1.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.3 36.6 0.5 3.2 8.0 17.9 6.9Senegal 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 24.1 0.5 -0.2 1.9 5.4 16.4Tanzania 5.5 1.1 -0.7 2.3 1.4 1.3 90.2 18.5 -11.4 38.1 23.7 21.2Togo -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.6 0.2 0.3 -9.5 -1.8 0.0 -30.8 10.5 12.5Zimbabwe 2.5 9.6 -9.0 -2.0 2.7 1.2 26.9 103.1 -97.1 -21.1 29.2 12.7

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LI countries 20.1 12.4 -9.4 0.5 10.0 6.7 45.8 28.1 -21.4 1.1 22.8 15.2Note: EC, ECS, EI, PCG, and P refer to emission coefficient, energy consumption structure, energy intensity, income, and population, respectively.

26

Figures

Fig. A1. Changes in global emissions from the four income-based subpanels.

Fig. A2. Decomposition results of the emissions changes in countries with different

income levels over the four selected periods (a. 1980-1990, b. 1990-2000, c.

2000-2010, d. 2010-2015).

Fig. A3. The forecast results of CO2 emissions in countries with different income

levels between 2016 and 2030.

Fig. A4. Comparison in forecast results of global emissions between various

institutions and this study.

27

Fig. A1. Changes in global emissions from the four income-based subpanels. Note:

the contributions of various income-based subpanels can be calculated as (the changes

in emissions in various income-based subpanels / the change in global emissions) *

the growth rate of global emissions.

28

Fig. A2. Decomposition results of the emissions changes in countries with different

income levels over the four selected periods (a. 1980-1990, b. 1990-2000, c. 2000-

2010, d. 2010-2015).

29

Fig. A3. The forecast results of CO2 emissions in countries with different income

levels between 2016 and 2030. Note: (a) HI countries, (b) UMI countries, (c) LMI

countries, and (d) LI countries.

30

Fig. A4. Comparison in the forecast results of global emissions between various

institutions and this study. Data sources: the IEA forecast results are obtained by

World Energy Outlook 2017 (IEA, 2017c) and the BP forecast results are obtained by

BP Energy Outlook 2018 (BP, 2018).

31

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