Index of U.S. Energy Security Risk: Assessing America’s Vulnerabilities in a Global Energy Market
Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia Global...
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WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia Global Dialogue for Global Energy Security The Role of the IEF Rachid Boularas Senior Energy Analyst International Energy Forum
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WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia
Global Dialogue for Global Energy Security
The Role of the IEF
Rachid Boularas Senior Energy Analyst
International Energy Forum
WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia
Main Global Energy Trends
Key Global Energy Challenges
IEF Role in Energy Dialogue
Concluding Remarks
Outline
WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia
Certainties World Energy Demand Grows Significantly
Fossil Fuels Dominate the Energy-Mix
Increasing Interdependence
Main Global Energy Trends
WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia
World Primary Energy Demand
Source IEA WEO 2008 ref scenario
WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia
Inter Regional Oil and Gas Trade
Source IEA WEO 2008 ref. sc
Gas bcm/y Oil mb/d
WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia
Availability: is there enough oil and gas resources to meet the growing demand?
Accessibility/deliverability: is there enough investment to deliver resources to the market, in a timely manner?
Affordability: what price levels are affordable to the world economy and in particular to DCs?
Acceptability/sustainability: is rising energy demand sustainable as regard to CO2 emissions?
Key Global Energy Challengesthe four A’s
WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia
Oil and Gas Proved Reserves 1988-2008 Oil and Gas Proved Reserves 1988-2008
177 trillion CM
107 trillion CM
1238 trillion Bls
910 trillion Bls
GAS +65 %OIL +36 %
Source BP Statistical Review June 2008
WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia
Oil and Gas Proved Reserves 2008 Oil and Gas Proved Reserves 2008
Source BP Statistical Review June 2008
WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia
Cumulative Oil & Gas Investment 2007-2030
Source IEA WEO 2008
6.3
Total energy 26.3 tr $
WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia
The world economy response to high prices has changed over the years,
High level of price volatility impacts investment,
Interconnection between financial markets and oil market?
Affordability: a serious concern for poor net importing countries
Is Energy Affordable?
WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia
Rising fossil fuels demand,
Rising CO2 emissions in any scenario,
CCS development and deployment : a viable solution for sustainability
Sustainability
WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia
IEF covers consuming & producing countries including those outside IEA and OPEC
WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia
Mission of IEFMission of IEF
WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia
Joint Oil Data Initiative (JODI)Joint Oil Data Initiative (JODI)
WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia
Investment Conditions
• Future share of biofuels and renewables
• Skillled labor shortages
• Stable regulatory and legal framework
Unpacking uncertainties to facilitate timely decision making
Sustained and enhanced global dialogue
WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia
Enhancing Energy Security through global dialogue
Enhancing Energy Security through global dialogue
Biennual IEF and IEBF to promote global energy dialogue – 11th IEF and 3th IEBF – Rome, April 2008
Investment : Tackle key uncertainties ( stable regulation framework, skill shortage, energy policies, cost escalation, …)
Transparency: enhance energy markets transparency and stability ( Boost JODI and extend to gas)
Sustainability: boost energy efficiency and enhance development and deployment of CCS
WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia
12th IEF and 4th IEBF – Mexico, 2010 ….…..and other platforms for dialogue concrete actions IEF-IGU Gas Ministerial Forum, 24 November 2008, Vienna,
Austria, IEF-IFP Symposium on role of technology in enhancing energy
security, 15 December 2008, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, IEF Symposium on IOC-NOC cooperation and partnership, Kuwait
City, Kuwait, first quarter 2009, IEF Symposium on HR shortages, Doha, Qatar, 13-14 April 2009
Enhancing Energy Security through global dialogue
Enhancing Energy Security through global dialogue
WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia
12th IEF and 4th IEBF – Mexico, 2010 ….…..and other platforms for dialogue Investigating key topics related to energy security
unpacking investment uncertainties, assessing the potential/implications of biofuels, …
Enhancing Energy Security through global dialogue
Enhancing Energy Security through global dialogue
WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia
Concluding remarks
More oil and gas needed in coming decades, Oil and gas resources available but… Huge investment needed in the backdrop of large
uncertainties, Growing interdependence between energy producing
and consuming countries, Achieve results in improving investment, transparency
and sustainability towards IEF Mexico 2010, IEF catalyst for action-oriented global energy dialogue
Concluding Remarks Concluding Remarks
WWW.IEFS.ORG.SA Global Energy Security and Geopolitics of Energy, 21 November 2008, Hilton Park, Nicosia
International Energy Forum
www.iefs.org.sa
www.jodidata.org
