www.csiro.au

Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events

John Mo

CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems

Complex Systems Science in Focus

8-10 August 2006Coogee Bay Hotel, Sydney, NSW

Physical Systems

Complex Systems Science in Focus - Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events

Some Thoughts

What are the properties of extreme events and what are the implications of those properties for decision making?

What is the role of decision making in extreme events?

What contextual factors that characterize extreme events are important in decision making?

What is needed to improve extreme event decision making and how to achieve that improvement through research?

Complex Systems Science in Focus - Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events

US North East Blackout 2003

Complex Systems Science in Focus - Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events

Melbourne Federation Square Mass Gatherings

Complex Systems Science in Focus - Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events

Accidents With Mass Casualties

Complex Systems Science in Focus - Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events

Tsunami

Complex Systems Science in Focus - Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events

Characteristics of Extreme Events and Implications to Decision Support Requirements

Rapid onset vs. “creeping change”

High consequence

Under-represented and disenfranchised groups tend to be disproportionately vulnerable

Time pressure

Rare, non repeating

High uncertainty

Pose complex, ill structured problems

Potential to create long-term change

Affect large numbers of people and/or large ecosystems

Little opportunity for learning. Relevant experience may be lacking. May or may not be a factor in evolutionary psychology.

The decision making implications may be quite different for different events.Attention will be focussed on event. Consequence of decisions could be disastrous.Generally, extreme events are difficult to predict. They often occur with insufficient warning.Limited time for analysis, Stress producing.This lack of structure may encourage intuitive mode of responding when analytic mode is more appropriate.In the aftermath of an extreme event, decision makers may face a new environment.Group decision, leadership, government action, trust, and cooperation/communication among stakeholders are important for implementation of effective decisions.

Equity should be explicitly considered in decision making

Complex Systems Science in Focus - Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events

What Can Science Do?

Evaluate the impact if it happens. The 1-10-100 rule?

Disastrous events must be prevented.

Infer (from scientific base) the unthinkable.

The flow-on consequences of a critical failure

Propagation of failure to other infrastructures

“What if” analysis

Options for investment and other mitigation strategies

Effectiveness of response plans

Prepare to respond swiftly and “correctly” even with dysfunctional systems

Vulnerability assessment

Choke points, single points of failure

Scenarios, including natural disasters and acts of terrorism

Business continuity

Complex Systems Science in Focus - Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events

NEMSIM

Complex Systems Science in Focus - Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events

National Electricity Network (NEM section)

Complex Systems Science in Focus - Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events

Demand Modelling

Complex Systems Science in Focus - Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events

Modelling for Blackout Analysis

Complex Systems Science in Focus - Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events

Weather model

Wind power

Infrastructure Model Elements

Gust windLightning

AdelaideMt.

GambiaPort

AugustaYorke Whyalla

Fire Fault

Regionaldemand

Temper-ature

No. of A/C

Day of week

SA Pool prices

Despatch Capacity

Mainten-ance

Gen. behaviour

Network constraint

NEM demand

NEM prices

Vic-SA Link

Murray Link

Geo-spatial

Complex Systems Science in Focus - Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events

Simulation of Blackout in South Australia

Specified conditions:Hot day

Interconnector issues:

Lightning (location, intensity)

Gust wind 120 km/hr

Planned maintenance shutdowns

Multiple generator failures

Policy discrepancy

Complex Systems Science in Focus - Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events

2005 Hurricane Katrina

Complex Systems Science in Focus - Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events

The Dennis Mileti Workshop at Emergency Management Australia

Dennis Mileti – Director of the Natural Hazards Research and Applications Information Center of the University of Colorado at Boulder (Invited speaker to the Australian National Emergency Management Committee, EMA, 31 August, 1999)

“The potential complexity … that hazards and risks appear to shift in ways we don’t fully understand. …

Many of our mitigation efforts themselves degrade the environment and contribute to the next disaster

… simply postponing events of even greater ultimate magnitude

…the building of levée banks ... encourage development behind them which increases losses when eventually they fail.”

Complex Systems Science in Focus - Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events

Cascading Events?

Weather model

Wind power

Gust windLightning

AdelaideMt.

GambiaPort

AugustaYorke Whyalla

Fire Fault

Regionaldemand

Temper-ature

No. of A/C

Day of week

SA Pool prices

Despatch Capacity

Mainten-ance

Gen. behaviour

Network constraint

NEM demand

NEM prices

Vic-SA Link

Murray Link

Geo-spatial

www.csiro.au

John Mo, CSE

Questions?

Thank you

Complex Systems Science in Focus - Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events

Major US Blackouts

1950 June 6

Widespread outage in the Pacific Northwest from British Columbia and Washington to Oregon, Idaho, and Utah and Montana.

1965

January 28th. 6 mid-western states for 2.5 hours. 2 million people affected.

April 11th. A tornado hits in Indiana and blackout extended to St. Louis and Iowa.

November 9th. 8 states fell into darkness for almost a day. Began in Canada Toronto, Rochester, Boston, New York. 4 million homes affected.

December 2nd. A power failure in the El Paso area (Texas, New Mexico, and Mexico) occurred at 8 pm and lasted for 2 hours.

1977 July 13 & 14

New York City suffered a massive blackout for 2 days. A number of communities erupted in violence. 3,766 looters arrested and the city suffered an economic blow estimated at more than $300 million. Time magazine called "A Night of Terror."

2003 August 14

New York City and much of the Northeast were paralyzed by a sudden blackout for over 24 hours. 50 million people affected.

Complex Systems Science in Focus - Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events

Mercury 05

Senator Chris Ellison, Minister for Justice and Customs:

“Australia’s largest-ever counter-terrorism exercise, Mercury 05, had met all objectives and reinforced some valuable lessons for more than 4000 participating members of our national security agencies and emergency services”

More than a year of planning and development went into making Mercury 05 as realistic as possible and the response from our police, intelligence, defence, security and emergency services personnel was outstanding

The four-day long exercise included mock bombing attacks or threats in Adelaide, Melbourne and Sydney, a threat to gas facilities in South Australia, a siege following the hijacking of a busload of foreign athletes and the recovery of a foreign vessel with terrorists aboard.

Complex Systems Science in Focus - Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events

Extreme events

Wide area power outages

Earth quake / Tsunami

Bomb blast / Accident gas explosion

Hurricane

Fire / Bush Fire

Flooding

Traffic blockade

CEO / VIP / politician kidnapped

Extreme weather

Mass gatherings

Stock market crashed

Avian flu / SARS outbreak

Complex Systems Science in Focus - Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events

Types of Infrastructures

Energy

Transport

Communications

Water

Banking and Finance

Food Chain

Health

Emergency Services

Mass Gatherings

Others