The Way Tanzanians Perceive the Performance of the parliament and the president of the United...

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The Way Tanzanians Perceive the Performance of the parliament and the president of the United Republic of Tanzania and Trust of All Three Branches of Government Results from the Afrobarometer Round 5 Survey in Tanzania

Stephen Mwombela15th October 2013


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What is the Afrobarometer?

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The Afrobarometer (AB) is a comparative series of public opinion surveys that measure public attitudes toward democracy, governance, the economy, leadership, identity, and other related issues.

The AB is an independent, non-partisan, African-based network of researchers.

The first round of surveys took place in 1999-2001 in 12 countries. The Network is now conducting “Round 5” surveys in up to 35 countries during 2011-2013.

Purpose: To measure popular perspectives on the social, political, and economic environments in each country where it is implemented and across Africa.

Goal: To give the public a voice in policy making processes by providing high-quality public opinion data to policy-makers, policy advocates and civil society organizations, academics, media, donors and investors, and ordinary Africans.


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Country Coverage: 1999-2012

Round 1, 1999-2001, 12 countries• Southern Africa: Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe• West Africa: Ghana, Mali, Nigeria• East Africa: Tanzania, Uganda

Round 2, 2002-2003, 16 countries • Cape Verde, Kenya, Mozambique, Senegal

Round 3, 2005-2006, 18 countries• Benin, Madagascar

Round 4, 2008-2009, 20 countries• Burkina Faso, Liberia

Round 5, 2011-2013, up to 35 countries• Algeria, Burundi, Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Guinea,

Mauritius, Morocco, Niger, Togo, Tunisia, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Swaziland


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Country Coverage Round 5: 2011 - 2013


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Who is Afrobarometer

A Pan-African Network of survey researchers and analysts.

• In each country there is a National Partner responsible for survey implementation. In Tanzania, the National Partner is REPOA.

• Four Core Partners provide technical assistance and Network management: o Center for Democratic Development (CDD), Ghanao Institute for Justice and Reconciliation (IJR), South Africao Institute for Development Studies (IDS), University of Nairobi, Kenyao Institute for Empirical Research in Political Economy (IREEP), Benin

• Two Support Units for capacity building and quality assuranceo Michigan State Universityo University of Cape Town

• Round 5 Core Funders include

DFID, SIDA, USAID and Mo Ibrahim Foundation


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Survey Methodology

• Nationally representative sample of adult citizens – all respondents are randomly selected– every adult citizen has an equal and known chance of being selected

• Face-to-face interviews in the language of the respondent’s choice

• Standard survey instrument across all countries for comparability

• The survey interviewed 2400 adult Tanzanians; A sample of this size yields results with a margin of error of +/-2% at a 95% confidence level.

• Field work for Round 5 in Tanzania was conducted between May and June 2012.

• Afrobarometer’s work in Tanzania is coordinated by REPOA and field work was carried out by REPOA.


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Survey Demographics

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Weighted Un-weighted

Mean Age 39.9 39.4

Gender

Male 50.1 50.1

Female 49.9 49.9

Location

Urban 30 31.7

Rural 70 68.3

Education

None 7.9 8

Primary 71.6 69.6

Secondary 16.1 18.4

Higher 3.6 4.0

Region / Province

Regions Arusha, Dar es Salaam, Dodoma, Kilimanjaro, Iringa, Kagera, Rukwa, Manyara, Mwanza, Shinyanga, Tabora, Morogoro, Mbeya, Pwani (Coast), Tanga, Lindi, Mtwara, Kigoma, Singida, Ruvuma, Mara, Kaskazini Unguja, Kusini Unguja,

Mjini Magharibi, Kaskazini Pemba and Kusini Pemba


PERCEPTIONS OF THE PERFORMANCE OF THE PARLIAMENT

Afrobarometer Round 5 Tanzania Survey Results


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Key Findings

• Majority of Tanzanians (61%) approve of the job that the parliament is

doing

• Disapproval of parliament’s performance increased by 5% points to

37% (in 2012) from 32% (in 2008) among rural Tanzanians

• Disapproval of parliament’s performance increased by 5% points from

33% (in 2008) to 38% (in 2012) among Mainland Tanzanians

• More educated Tanzanians tended to disapprove the parliament more

than Tanzanians who were less educated

• Parliament’s approval dropped by 8% points among Tanzanians with a

post-secondary education and by 10% points among Tanzanians with a

secondary education.

Performance of parliament

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the parliament has performed its job over the past twelve months, or you haven’t heard enough about them to say?

2003 2005 2008 20120

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

58

67 6561

3628

3338

Approve Disapprove

% o

f R

espo

nden

ts

11

Performance of parliament by Rural and Urban


2003 2005 2008 2012 2003 2005 2008 2012Urban Rural

0102030405060708090

100

4770 61 60 61 66 66 63

4724 38 40 32 29 32 37

Approve Disapprove

% o

f R

esp

ond

ents

12

Performance of parliament by Mainland and Zanzibar


2003 2005 2008 2012 2003 2005 2008 2012Mainland Zanzibar

0

20

40

60

80

100

59 66 65 61

31

7760 64

35 29 33 38

66

8 38 36

Approve Disapprove

% o

f R

esp

ond

ents

13

Performance of parliament by level of education

Primary

Post-Secondary

Primary

Post-Secondary

Primary

Post-Secondary

Primary

Post-Secondary

2003

2005

2008

2012

0 20 40 60 80 100 12052

6154

486569

5680

696565626263

5554

3434

4043

2527

3920

23343438

3436

4546

Approve Disapprove

% of Respondents

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the parliament has performed its job over the past twelve months, or you haven't heard enough about them to say?


Who Tanzanians Think Should be Making Laws & Whether the President Should be Accountable to the Parliament



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Key Findings

• Majority of Tanzanians (69%) think that the parliament should be (the

branch of government) making laws

• That is a 11% points decline from 80% in 2008

• Majority of Tanzanians (56%) think that the president should be

accountable to the parliament

• This is a 10% points from 2008 when 66% of Tanzanians thought that the

president should be accountable to the parliament

• There is a 14% points increase in the percentage of Tanzanians who think

that the president should NOT be accountable to the parliament from 29%

(in 2008) to 43% (in 2012)

Who should be making laws?

Statement1: Members of parliament represent the people; therefore they should make laws for this country, even if the president does not agree.

Statement2: Since the president represents all of us, he should pass laws without worrying about what parliament thinks.

2003 2005 2008 20120

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

6570

8069

2116 13

23

Parliament President

% o

f R

esp

ond

ents

Should the president be Accountable to the parliament?

Statement1: The parliament should ensure that the president explains to it on a regular basis how his government spends the taxpayers’ money.

Statement2: The president should be able to devote his full attention to developing the country rather than wasting time justifying his actions.

2008 20120

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 66

56

29

43

Yes, he should be accountable No, he should not be accountable

% o

f R

esp

ond

ents


Perceptions towards the performance of the president



Key Findings

• The president’s approval (71%) is at the lowest level since the

Afrobarometer surveys began in Tanzania

• This is a 19% points decline from the president’s approval in 2008

which was 90%

• Fewer mainland Tanzanians (71%) approve of the president’s

performance than their Zanzibar counterparts (84%)

• The mainland approval is 19% points less than it was in 2008

which was 90%

• The president’s job approval rating declined by 40% points among

Tanzanians with at least a post-secondary education 60% in 2012

versus about 100% in 2008

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The Performance of the President

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the president has performed his job over the past twelve months, or you haven’t heard enough about them to say?

2003 2005 2008 20120

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

10085

93 90

71

134

9

28

Approve Disapprove

% o

f R

esp

ond

ents

21

Performance of the President by Urban and Rural


2003 2005 2008 2012 2003 2005 2008 2012Urban Rural

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

7992 89

7086 94 90

73

196 8

2912 4 8

26

% o

f R

esp

ond

ents

Performance of the President by Mainland and Zanzibar



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

87 94 9071

30

84 82 84

11 4 829

70

16 14 16

Approve Disapprove

% o

f R

esp

ond

ents

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Performance of the President by Level of Education


Primary

Post-Secondary

Primary

Post-Secondary

Primary

Post-Secondary

Primary

Post-Secondary20

0320

0520

0820

12

0 20 40 60 80 100 1208887

8281

89949295

9290

87100

7772

6560

511

17193

475

78

110

2127

3540

% of Respondents


Perceptions of Trust Towards all Three Branches of Government

Afrobarometer Round 5 Tanzania Survey Results:


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Key Findings

• Only the Judiciary did not experience an aggregate decline in trust

among the 3 branches of government

• There was a 14% points decline in the trust of the president from 88% in

2008 to 74% in 2012

• There was a 37% points decline in the trust of the president among

Tanzanians with a post-secondary education 97% in 2008 to 60% in

2012

• Trust in the parliament declined 19% points amongst Tanzanians with a

post-secondary education from 90% in 2008 to 71% in 2012

• Trust in the parliament declined by 12% points amongst Tanzanians with

a secondary education from 82% in 2008 to 72% in 2012.

Tanzanians’ Trust of the President

2003 2005 2008 20120

102030405060708090

100

79

9488

74

17

511

26

Trust President Distrust President

% o

f R

esp

on

den

ts

Q: How much do you trust the president, or you haven’t heard enough about him to say?

Tanzanians’ Trust of the Parliament

Q: How much do you trust the parliament, or you haven’t heard enough about them to say?

2003 2005 2008 20120

102030405060708090

100

69

8883

76

27

916

23

Trust Parliament Distrust Parliament

% o

f R

esp

on

den

ts

Tanzanians’ Trust of the Judiciary

Q: How much do you trust the Courts of Law, or you haven’t heard enough about them to say?

2003 2005 2008 20120

102030405060708090

100

54

86

73 74

43

10

26 25

Trust Judiciary Distrust Judiciary

% o

f R

esp

on

den

ts

Trust of the President by Urban and Rural


2003 2005 2008 2012 2003 2005 2008 2012Urban Rural

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

7491 82

70 7994 90

77

236 17

29 184 10

22

Trust Distrust

% o

f R

esp

on

den

ts

Trust of the president by Mainland and Zanzibar



0102030405060708090

100

8195 88

73

11

83 79 87

15

411

26

89

6 1913

Trust Distrust

% o

f R

esp

on

den

ts

Trust of the president by Level of Education


Primary

Post-Secondary

Primary

Post-Secondary

Primary

Post-Secondary

Primary

Post-Secondary

20

03

20

05

20

08

20

12

0 20 40 60 80 100 12090

8177

679395

919593

8886

9782

7570

60

51621

3044

856

1114

317

2530

40

Trust Distrust% of Respondents

Trust of the Parliament by Urban and Rural


2003 2005 2008 2012 2003 2005 2008 2012Urban Rural

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

64

8879 74 68

88 83 78

33

8 20 2627

9 16 21

Trust Distrust

% o

f R

esp

on

den

ts

Trust of the parliament by Mainland and Zanzibar



0102030405060708090

100

7089 84 76

11

80 72 80

268 15 23

89

7 2620

Trust Distrust

% o

f R

esp

on

den

ts

Trust of the parliament by Level of Education


Primary

Post-Secondary

Primary

Post-Secondary

Primary

Post-Secondary

Primary

Post-Secondary

20

03

20

05

20

08

20

12

0 20 40 60 80 100 12064

7267

5683898790

86828490

8377

7271

1825

3141

98

1110

131615

1015

222829

Trust Distrust

% of Respondents

Trust of the Judiciary by Urban and Rural


2003 2005 2008 2012 2003 2005 2008 2012Urban Rural

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

50

81 73 6955

8773 76

48

16 27 3141

925 24

Trust Distrust

% o

f R

esp

on

den

ts

Trust of the Judiciary by Mainland and Zanzibar



0102030405060708090

100

54

8673 74

42

8368 69

42

1025 25

55

9 32 31

Trust Distrust

% o

f R

esp

on

den

ts

Trust of the Judiciary by Level of Education


Primary

Post-Secondary

Primary

Post-Secondary

Primary

Post-Secondary

Primary

Post-Secondary2

00

32

00

52

00

82

01

2

0 20 40 60 80 100 1205857

4940

8287

7940

817273

6881

7569

61

3640

4954

510

1954

172626

321525

3139

Trust Distrust% of Respondents


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Conclusions

• Tanzanians have consistently approved of the parliament’s job

performance

• Tanzanians have consistently had a higher job approval rating for the

president than the parliament

• Tanzanians with secondary and post-secondary education tended to

trust the president less than did Tanzanians with less education

• Tanzanians believe that parliament should be making laws and not the

president

• Tanzanians believe that the president should be accountable to

parliament and not vice versa

For more information and publications, please contact REPOA at www.repoa.or.tz or through +255 22 2700083/2772556 and visit the Afrobarometer website at: www.afrobarometer.org or follow us on Facebook (coming soon) and Twitter @Afrobarometer

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http://www.repoa.or.tz/

http://www.afrobarometer.org/

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