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THORPEX Summary Paper

David ParsonsU of Oklahoma

School of Meteorology

www.wmo.int/wwrpwww.wmo.int/thorpex

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Background The 10-year THORPEX era is coming to a close (e.g., “initiated” by the

WMO in 2003 and “implemented” in 2005)

We need to document the achievements and lessons learned from THORPEX both in the refereed and WMO literature.

The ICSC Executive Committee has asked me to lead this effort (I did not campaign for this task)

The recently produced THORPEX review provides a good starting point

I will need your help, beginning with your comments today and ending with your contributing to the publications This important review should not represent one person’s opinion.

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Publication Strategy (submitted in ~ 1 year)

----- Report in the WMO WWRP/THORPEX publication series

-----Refereed publications

Single article in Bulletin of the AMS (BAMS)

Subsequent publications on separate topics are, of course, welcomed

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Propose Outline of the Report1. Introduction -- Overview and goals of THORPEX

2. Scientific and Technical Accomplishments

3. Examples of Improvements in Operational Prediction

4. Broader impacts (collaborations, training, meetings, etc)

5. Lessons Learned and Challenges Faced

6. Summary and the THORPEX legacy (future projects)

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1. Introduction – Beland with input from Burridge, Thorpe, Shapiro et al.

a) History – Sequence of events that led to the founding of THORPEX

b) Overarching goal – “accelerate improvements in the accuracy of 1-day to 2-week forecasts of high impact weather”

c) Establishment of four research priorities and core objectives --- pgs. 8 and 9 of science plan

 

d) Organization of the Scientific and Technical Teams

e) Governance of project and implementations– WMO Research Dept, WWRP, Trust fund and IPO 

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2. Technical and Scientific Accomplishments

a) TIGGE – Focus on TIGGE as a technical achievement and scientific outcomes in the literature, but also TIGGE-LAM and GEOWOW -- Bougeault with input from Toth, Paccagnella, Swinbank, et al

b) Regional campaigns – Leads of regional campaigns (Harr, etc)

c) Weather and climate in polar regions – Brunet, Rabier et al

d) Targeting and advancing the understanding of the global observing system – Langland and Mujumdar et al

e) Advancing data assimilation – Rabier, Gauthier, current committee members

f) Predictability and dynamics of high impact weather – Wernli et al.

g) Socio-economic research and applications – Mills et al

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3. Examples of operational prediction

a) North American Ensemble Forecast System - Toth et al.

b) Hybrid data assimilation system in the US (NOAA THORPEX) -- TBD

c) TIGGE as a bench mark for improving individual systems and real-time TIGGE products -- Bougeault

d) High resolution polar prediction models in Env Canada and pending upgrades to AMPS in the US -- Gilbert, Parsons for AMPS

e) Tropical cyclone predictions, real-time products – Nakazawa et al

f) PANDOWAE and ERTEL centers – German example – Jones et al

g) AMMA-THORPEX Africa – Diongue et al

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3. Broader impacts (WCRP, GEO collaborations, training, workshops, symposiums etc) – Gilbert and Caughey

4. Challenges and lessons learned – reaching developing nations, societal research – Parsons, Mills, Diongue

5. Summary and the legacy of THORPEX – Leads of new projects and Parsons (for summary)

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Thank YouThank You