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THORPEX Accomplishes, Challenges and Lessons Learned

David ParsonsU of Oklahoma

School of Meteorology

www.wmo.int/wwrpwww.wmo.int/thorpex

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The THORPEX Review Paper

Original plan was a single review paper submitted to Bulletin of the AMS (BAMS)

Discussions with co-authors and Chief of BAMS Editorial Board led to the paper being split into two articles

THORPEX and the Science of Prediction (submitted Nov 2014)

The Successes and Challenges Encountered of the THORPEX Quest to Benefit Society and the Economy Through Improved Prediction (Proposal submitted and informally accepted by BAMS Editor)

Apologies on the 1st Paper Being So Late

Apologies on the 1st Paper Being So Late

Apologies to David Burridge for Apologizing Too Much

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THORPEX Research and the Science of Prediction

D. B. Parsons    

School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, USA

M. Beland, D. Burridge, P. Bougeault, G. Brunet, J. Caughey, M. Charron, H. C. Davies, A. Diongue Niang, V. Ducrocq, Pierre

Gauthier, T. M. Hamill, P. A. Harr, S. C. Jones, R. H. Langland, S. J. Majumdar, B. N. Mills, M. Moncrieff, T. Nakazawa, F. Rabier, J.-L.

Redelsperger, R. W. Saunders, M. A. Shapiro, R. Swinbank, I. Szunyogh, C. Thorncroft, A. J. Thorpe, X. Wang, D. Waliser, H.

Wernli, Z. Toth

Submitted to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, November 2014

Sections in the 1st Paper

• Introduction --- motivation for a program on high impact weather

• Brief History of the program

• THORPEX from the poles to the tropics

• Research on numerical weather prediction systems

• Regional aspects of high impact weather

• Societal and economic aspects of high impact weather

• Roots in the Global Atmospheric Research Program (GARP)

• Conclusions

Key Strategies For Successful Science

• Making operational modeling products freely available to the research community (e.g., TIGGE, YOTC)

• Collaborate with others outside of the weather community (e.g., IPY, WCRP, GEO, etc)

• Working Groups within THORPEX “worked” and collaborated on research rather than just reporting on science

• Regional Committees focused on priority weather events for their areas

THORPEX from the poles to the tropics• THORPEX Cluster of Experiments under IPY – large effort

that was unanticipated by the THORPEX Science Plan – CONCORDIASI, THORPEX Arctic Weather and Environmental Prediction Initiative (TAWEPI), Greenland Flow Distortion, STORM Studies of Arctic

• Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) with WCRP --- a virtual field campaign from May 2008 to April 2010; access to satellite data through the YOTC-Giovanni dissemination system and the A-Train, cloud “resolving” models

• Predictability and dynamics processes of middle latitude flows – THORPEX PDP, two large national efforts – PANDOWAE and DIAMET

Numerical Weather Prediction Research

• Data Assimilation research– Overview paper (Rabier et al. 2008)– Development and implementation of ensemble and hybrid

systems

• Observing system research – Review of targeting– Observation impact studies– Impacts of new lidar observations

• Ensemble system research– TIGGE covered in two review papers (Bougeault et al.

(2010) and Swinbank et al. (2015)

Global-to-regional aspects of high impact weather: regional campaigns

a) High impact weather in the Mediterrean (HYMEX) -- Ducrocq et al. 2014

Knowledge of atmospheric and hydrological influences that lead to flash floods, development of improved coupled modeling systems and data assimilation

strategies on convection permitting-scales

b) West African Monsoon (AMMA) – Redelsperger et al. 2006 Advancing observational strategies (rawinsonde and satellite) over West

Africa and knowledge of data impacts, dynamics of African Easterly waves, tropical- -extratropical interacts -- NASA collaboration, THORPEX role limited to WG2

c) Tropical cyclones and extra-tropical transitions (T-PARC and related tropical cyclone experiments)

Knowledge of tropical cyclone targeting in the N. Pacific basin, understanding and advances in prediction of tropical cyclone genesis, and ET dynamics and forecast failures

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What about Quantity?

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Publications Based on ISI Web of Science ---Topic Search

What about the Science?

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• Count of AMS paper with these programs/projects in the text.

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2nd Paper

Title and author list tentative

Relatively simple to write as content has been already written by authors

1st draft to co-authors in mid-December

Request changes back in mid-January

A goal of a submission to BAMS in February

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The Successes and Challenges of the THORPEX Quest to Benefit Society and the Economy Through Improved Prediction

D. B. Parsons    

School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, USA

M. Beland, G. Brunet, D. Burridge, S. Cavallo, M. Charron, J. Caughey, M. Diop Kane, D. Kleist, A. Diongue Niang, B. Mills, T.

Nakazawa, D.J. Parker, D. Parrish, F. Rabier, C. Saulo, R. Swinbank, A. Thorpe, Z. Toth, M. Yamaguchi, X. Wang, J. Whitaker.

Proposal formally submitted to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, November 2014

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operational prediction1) North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)

The Canadian & US operational equivalent to TIGGE- ~

Candille (2009) 1-2 days of skill added in week 2 forecasts

2) Hybrid data assimilation system in the US (NOAA THORPEX) –

”This data assimilation upgrade represents one of the biggest improvements in U.S. weather and climate forecasting in a decade.”. Louis Uccellini

~ 0.5 to 1-day of additional usable skill

Hurricane forecasts (Hamill et al. 2011); Precipitation forecasts over the Continental US (Lapenta et al. 2012); Global model – (Wang et al. 2013)

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operational prediction

3) Legacy of high resolution polar prediction models

Regional Arctic prediction systems for Env Canada (Deacu et al., 2011; Improved use of satellite observations (Garand et al. 2011)

CONCORDIASI – Meteo France efforts in satellite assimilation; Ongoing work to improve the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) in the US

4) Real-time ensembles of opportunity in South America

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Operational impacts

5) Real-time TIGGE predictions of tropical cyclone tracks –Majumdar and Finocchio, 2010; Yamaguchi et al, 2012)

North Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast Project (NWP-TCEFP), was set-up by the WMO’s Tropical Cyclone program (TCP) and the WWRP.

Soulik Fitow

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Haiyan

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operational prediction

6) THORPEX Africa,

AMMA-THORPEX Forecasters Handbook,

Products for the WMO’s Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP)

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Broader impactsBridging weather and climate --- WCRP collaborations

THORPEX training, workshops, symposiums

THORPEX impact on education – numerous MS thesis and PhD dissertations, summer short course, etcc

Enhancement in university and operational collaboration

German PANDOWAE and UK DIAMET projects: national examples of a paradigm shift

An attempt to bridge social science-weather intersections with socio-economic research and applications

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Challenges and lessons learned

Difficulty in making a difference in the developing world

Difficulties integrating social scientific research into THORPEX and obtaining funding

Funding Some nations had a successful strategy to fund significant national participation in THORPEX (e.g., German, UK)

Funding for international collaboration on field experiments is far easier than funding for international collaborations on modeling and theory in some countries (e.g., US and France)

Funding levels did not materialize as envisioned, despite early successes esp. in US

Scientific output is extremely high given that funding levels did not materialize

Some stove piping --- some different camps (better than some as good as most)

Political issues in integrating stakeholders

THORPEX made a difference and can be “compared” to GARP

Thank YouThank You