Dr.sc. Goran Majstrovi ć

WPP GENERATION VARIATIONS: EXPECTATIONS AND ACHEIVEMENTS

Dr.sc. Goran Majstrovi ć

ENERGY INSTITUTEHrvoje Požar

MIPROOpatija 21.5.2012.

OBJECTIVES

• Bulgarian experience

• Romanian experience

• Croatian experience

• Simulation of BiH system

• Future expectations in the region

Existing WPP capacities in the region

BULGARIAN EXPERIENCEBULGARIAN EXPERIENCE

BULGARIAN EXPERIENCE

BULGARIAN EXPERIENCE

• Currently installed WPP capacity: ~500 MW

• Secondary reserve expected to be ~25 % of the WPP installed capacity

BULGARIAN EXPERIENCE

capacity

• But all WPPs are concentrated in the Eastern part of the country and that's the reserve should be kept at 50% of WPP installed capacity

• Currently they have enough reserve for 100% of the time

• Internal study: max. installed WPP capacity set to 1800 MW due to available secondary reserve (up to 900 MW)

ROMANIAN EXPERIENCEROMANIAN EXPERIENCE

ROMANIAN EXPERIENCE

ROMANIAN EXPERIENCE

• Currently installed WPP capacity: ~1200 MW

• Tertiary reserve (automatic) expected to be ~30 % of the WPP installed capacity

ROMANIAN EXPERIENCE

installed capacity

• Before wind: tertiary reserve = NPP + 100 MW (900 M W), didnt use for load variations - under 100 MW

• Currently they have enough reserve for 100% of the time

• Internal study: max. installed WPP capacity set to 3000 MW due to available tertiary reserve (900 MW)

August 2010 – August 2011: 10-min variations: - 180/+214 MW and extreme of 866 MW

(PWPPinst = 563 – 930 MW)

ROMANIAN EXPERIENCE

(PWPPinst = 563 – 930 MW)

Variations more than dif >50 dif >100 dif>150 dif>200

No. of variations 128 22 3 0

% 0.247 0.042 0.006 0.000

Variations less than dif<-50 dif<-100 dif<-150 dif<-200

No. of variations 136 18 5 1

% 0.262 0.035 0.010 0.002

EUROPEAN EXPERIENCE

WPP VARIATIONS IN EUROPE

Source: Energinet, Eirgrid, ISET, Holmgren, Axelsson et al., INETI, EWEA

CROATIAN EXPERIENCE

CROATIAN EXPERIENCE

CROATIAN EXPERIENCE

Država Proizvodnja(HE+VE)/

Potrošnja

(%)

Rezerva/Pmax

(%)

Pinst(VE)/rezerva

(%)

Švicarska 58,4 76,8 0,2Švicarska 58,4 76,8 0,2Austrija 56,9 109,9 9,9BiH 39,7 115,6 0,0Crna Gora 32,6 43,6 0,0Rumunjska 30,4 112,3 0,1HRVATSKA 29,6 37,2 1,8Slovenija 27,6 70,4 0,0Srbija 25,6 29,0 0,0Portugal 24,5 68,8 47,0Španjolska 20,7 108,6 36,2Danska 19,4 102,5 49,5Njemačka 11,5 73,9 41,8Ukupno ENTSO-E 15,7 74,2 20,7

Raspon sekundarne P/f regulacije Elektrana po agregatu (MW) po elektrani (MW)

HE Zakučac 40 MW 160 MW HE Senj 37 MW 111 MW HE Vinodol 30 MW 90 MW UKUPNO 361 MW

CROATIAN EXPERIENCE

MWbbPaR 802max ≈−+=

Raspon sekundarne P/f regulacije Elektrana

Zima Ljeto po agregatu

(MW) po elektrani

(MW) po agregatu

(MW) po elektrani

(MW) HE Zakučac 40 MW 160 MW 40 MW 80 MW HE Senj - - 37 MW 111 MW HE Vinodol 30 MW 90 MW 30 MW 90 MW UKUPNO 150 MW 281 MW

Raspon sekundarne P/f regulacije Elektrana Zima Ljeto

Dan Noć Dan Noć HE Zakučac 160 MW - 80 MW - HE Senj - - 37 MW - HE Vinodol 90 MW 90 MW 90 MW 90 MW UKUPNO 150 MW dan / 90 MW no ć 207 MW dan / 90 MW no ć

Prema trenutnoj dispe čerskoj praksi mogu će je osigurati u EES izme đu 90 MW i 280 MW snage sekundarne regulacije.

CROATIAN EXPERIENCE

CROATIAN EXPERIENCE

60

70

80 P(ve instal)

WPP GENERATION JAN -APR 2011

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

siječanj veljača ožujak travanj

2011.

Pve

(M

W) max (MW)

prosjek (MW)

max satna promjena (MW)

WPP HOURLY VARIATIONS

1200

1400

1600

1800B

roj

satn

ih i

nte

rva

la

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

<-20 [-20,-10> [-10,-1> [-1,1> [1,10> [10,20> [20,30> >30

ΔP(MW)

Bro

j sa

tnih

in

terv

ala

WIND MEASUREMENT ANALYSIS

Real wind measurements on 9 WPP sites (~50 m, scale d up to 80 m)measurement duration: 17 months, ~70,000 input data

Test 1 – each of 9 measuring site = equal capacity ( MW)Test 2 - each of 7 measuring site = equal capacity ( MW)

WIND MEASUREMENT ANALYSIS

WPP SCENARIO ANALYSIS

EXPECTED WPP VARIATIONS

WPP generation variations: 10-minutes (red) and hourly (green)

Scenarij (MW) 400 600 800a 800b 1000a 1000b 1200a 1200b 1200c

Maksimalna satna promjena proizvodnje VE (p.u.)

+ ∆P (porast) 0.40 0.41 0.40 0.41 0.38 0.38 0.37 0.33 0.29

EXPECTED WPP VARIATIONS

- ∆P (pad) -0.36 -0.37 -0.36 -0.35 -0.35 -0.33 -0.33 -0.35 -0.30

St.dev. 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03

Scenarij Pojedinačne VE 910 MW 400 MW

Maksimalne 10-minutne promjene proizvodnje VE (p.u.)

∆P 92% 27% 38%

St. Dev 8% 3% 3,2%

910 MW 400 MW

Broj 10-minutnih intervala s varijacijama preko ±15% ukupne instalirane snage

30 183

Broj analiziranih intervala 31487 54233

EXPECTED WPP VARIATIONS

Broj analiziranih intervala 31487 54233

Procijenjeni godišnji broj 10-minutnih intervala s varijacijama preko ±15%

50 177

Procijenjeni godišnje trajanje 10-minutnih intervala s varijacijama preko ±15%

8h 30h

Scenarij 400 600 800a 800b 1000a 1000b 1200a 1200b 1200c

Broj sati godišnje s varijacijama preko ±30% 20 11 9 7 8 8 8 6 3

200-300 MW11%

300-400 MW3%

400 MW>0%

200-400 MW17%

400-600 MW2%

600-800 MW1% >1000 MW

0%

800-1000 MW0%

EXPECTED LOAD AND WPP VARIATIONS

Expected hourly load changes

0-100 MW63%

100-200 MW23%

0-200 MW80%

Expected load + WPP variations

REGIONAL EXPERIENCE

CURRENT EXPERIENCE WITH WPP VARIABILITY IN THE REGION

500

600

700

WP

P g

en

era

tio

n (

MW

)

0

100

200

300

400

500

1. 1. 1

1

8. 1. 1

1

15 .1. 1

1

22 .1. 1

1

29 .1. 1

1

5. 2. 1

1

12 .2. 1

1

19 .2. 1

1

26 .2. 1

1

5. 3. 1

1

12 .3. 1

1

19 .3. 1

1

26 .3. 1

1

2. 4. 1

1

9. 4. 1

1

16 .4. 1

1

23 .4. 1

1

WP

P g

en

era

tio

n (

MW

)

croatia

bulgaria

romania

WPP VARIATIONS IN 2011

200

300

400

WP

P h

ou

rly

va

ria

tio

ns

(MW

h/h

)

max

min

99%

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

Romania Bulgaria Croatia Total sum

WP

P h

ou

rly

va

ria

tio

ns

(MW

h/h

)

99%

-99%

98%

-98%

90%

-90%

50%

-50%

P (WPP total) = 883 MW (2011)

WPP VARIATIONS IN 2011

P (WPP total) = 883 MW (2011)

WPP VARIATIONS IN 2011

40%

45%

50%

Max

imum

hou

rly v

aria

tions

as

a pe

rcen

tage

of t

otal

in

stal

led

WP

P c

apac

ity

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Croatia Bulgaria Romania Greece TOTAL

Max

imum

hou

rly v

aria

tions

as

a pe

rcen

tage

of t

otal

in

stal

led

WP

P c

apac

ity

WPP VARIATIONS IN 2011

SIMULATION OF BIH SYSTEM

EXISTING UNWANTED HOURLY SYSTEM IMBALANCE

200

250

300

350

400

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

1

158

315

472

629

786

943

1100

1257

1414

1571

1728

1885

2042

2199

2356

2513

2670

2827

2984

3141

3298

3455

3612

3769

3926

4083

4240

4397

4554

4711

4868

5025

5182

5339

5496

5653

5810

5967

6124

6281

6438

6595

6752

6909

7066

7223

7380

7537

7694

7851

8008

8165

8322

8479

8636

hours

ΔP

(BiH

) (M

Wh

/h)

In 2010: +347 MWh/h to -224 MWh/h. Deviations larger than ±200 MWh/h for 35 hours

1000

1200

1400

EXISTING UNWANTED HOURLY SYSTEM IMBALANCE

0

200

400

600

800

1000

-200-150-100 -80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 100 150 200More

ΔP (BiH) (MWh/h)

Nu

mb

er

of

ho

url

y i

nte

rva

ls i

n 2

01

0

350

400

450

EXISTING NON-PLANNED HOURLY LOAD DEVIATIONS

Pload ϵ <800, 2100> MW

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

-300

-280

-260

-240

-220

-200

-180

-160

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20 0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

Nu

mb

er

of

ho

url

y i

nte

rva

ls i

n 2

01

0

ΔP (load) (MW)

100

150

200

de

via

tio

n b

etw

ee

n r

ea

lize

d a

nd

fore

cast

ed

WP

P p

rod

uct

ion

(M

Wh

/h)

EXPECTED HOURLY WPP VARIATIONS

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

1

1001

2001

3001

4001

5001

6001

7001

8001

time (2010)

de

via

tio

n b

etw

ee

n r

ea

lize

d a

nd

fore

cast

ed

WP

P p

rod

uct

ion

(M

Wh

/h)

PWPPinst = 340 MW

300

400

500

Ho

url

y d

ev

iati

on

s fr

om

th

e f

ore

cast

(M

Wh

/h)

WPP IMPACT ON SYSTEM DEVIATIONS

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

Load WPP generation Load+WPP generation

Ho

url

y d

ev

iati

on

s fr

om

th

e f

ore

cast

(M

Wh

/h)

max

min

1

-99%

98%

-98%

90%

-90%

50%

-50%

EXPECTED NEED FOR RESERVE CAPACITY

FUTURE EXPECTATIONS IN THE FUTURE EXPECTATIONS IN THE REGION

WPP PROJECTS UNDER DEVELOPMENT

Currently 1731 WPP projects are under development in the region

722

617

700

800

Tot

al n

umbe

r of W

PP

pro

ject

s un

der d

evel

opm

ent

(78.000 MW)

8

132

4619 4 6 8 14

95

~10000 MW0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Slove

nia

Croat

ia

BiH

Serbia

UNMIK

Mon

teneg

ro

Mac

edonia

Alban

ia

Greece

Bulgaria

Roman

ia

Turke

y

TSO of

Tot

al n

umbe

r of W

PP

pro

ject

s un

der d

evel

opm

ent

WPPs IN 2010 AND 2020

Source: ENTSO-E PEMD 2010

RES LEGISLATIVE FRAMEWORK DEFINED?

4

YES: TSO of Greece, Croatia,Turkey, Romania

1

7

NO: TSO of Montenegro

PARTLY: TSO of Albania,Slovenia, UNMIK, Serbia,Macedonia, Bulgaria, BiH

TSO OPINION ON LIMITING FACTORS FOR LARGER WPP INTEGRATION

5

10

66

8

10

12

Lim

iting

fact

ors

for

larg

er W

PP

inte

rgat

ion

3

1

54

1

0

2

4

6

Win

d en

ergy

pot

entia

l T

ariff

syst

em o

n RES

Com

plex

WPP

dev

elopm

ent p

roce

dure

Lac

k of le

gisla

tive

fram

ewor

k

Ava

ilabl

e sy

stem

rese

rve

Net

work

abso

rptio

n ca

pabil

ity in

the.

..La

ck o

f inv

estm

ents

Lim

iting

fact

ors

for

larg

er W

PP

inte

rgat

ion

1252,5

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

avai

labl

y se

cond

ary

rese

rve

rang

e (

± M

W )

AVAILABLE SECONDARY RESERVE

80

200

47

160

40 20 35 13

300

150

600

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Sloven

ia

Croati

a

BiH

Serbia

UNMIK

Mon

teneg

roFYR M

aced

onia*

Albania

Greec

eBulg

aria*

*Rom

ania*

**

Turke

y

TSO of

avai

labl

y se

cond

ary

rese

rve

rang

e (

± M

W )

* up to 50 MW during winter season** from -300 MW to +500 MW*** ±150 MW for peak-off and ±300 MW peak week day Total sum: 2897,5 MW

6

8

6

8

10

12

Mai

n lim

itatio

n fo

r in

crea

sing

ava

ilabl

e se

cond

ary

LIMITATIONS FOR INCREASING OF AVAILABLE SECONDARY CONTROL

1

4

0

2

4

6

No ad

equat

e fin

ancia

l com

pensa

tion

f..

No

exist

ing in

stall

ed c

apac

ities

capa

b..

No

exist

ing su

ppor

t in

SCADA syste

m

No

adequ

ate

equipm

ent in

exis

ting

ins...

Mai

n lim

itatio

n fo

r in

crea

sing

ava

ilabl

e se

cond

ary

cont

rol

500

600

700

WPP FORECASTING HELPS

0

100

200

300

400

500

150 MW 300 MW 600 MW 900 MW -wide

900 MW -conc

1300 MW -wide

1300 MW -conc

WPP scenario

Res

erve

cap

acity

(M

W)

98% (4-h forecast)

99% (4-h forecast)

100% (4-h forecast)

98% (2-h forecast)

99% (2-h forecast)

100% (2-h forecast)

TOTAL SEE WPPs IN 2020

TOTAL SEE WPPs IN 2020

TOTAL SEE WPPs IN 2020

TOTAL SEE WPPs IN 2020

Comparing these regional variations to the country variations, we get clear benefit of the regional approach of WPP integration:

regional approach would decrease total reserve need for -2600 MWh/h and +2000 MWh/h .

regional approach would decrease system reserve needs for balancing WPPs to less than half of the existing individual country approach.

GERMAN EXPERIENCEGERMAN EXPERIENCE

GERMAN EXPERIENCE

“Last winter, on several occasions, Germany escaped only just large-scale power outages. Next winter the risk of large blackouts is even greater.

Several times, the pre-ordered reserve power plants in Austria and Germany were fully utilized. On several occasions, the network operators were not even able to mobilize additionally needed emergency reserves abroad. The number of short-term emergency interventions in network and power plant operating shot up by more than 30,000 percentage points on some network portions...”

"We narrowly escaped a catastrophe."

"Had a failure of a large power plant taken place in this situation, there would have been hardly any room for manoeuvre available. We narrowly escaped a catastrophe.

GERMAN EXPERIENCE

There is no reason for a sigh of relief, however: Next winter, which will possibly be even more severe, everything could get much worse. Because then even less base-load gas- and coal-fired power plants will be available to reliably compensate for wind lulls and the absence of solar power for months... ”

System operators are facing significant problems with large scale WPP integration

Technical and economic aspects should be

CONCLUSION

Technical and economic aspects should be resolved

Technical side: secondary and tertiary reserve adequacy

Economic side: financial compensation mechanism

Time is not on the operators’ side...

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

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