WORLD POPULATION PROJECT POPULATION – DEVELOPMENT – ENVIRONMENT MODELLING: THOUGHTS ON AN...

WORLD POPULATION PROJECT

POPULATION – DEVELOPMENT –

ENVIRONMENT MODELLING:

THOUGHTS ON AN EGYPTIAN APPLICATION

IIASA WORKSHOPAUGUST 9 – 10, 2004


QUESTIONS

SHOULD WE THINK ABOUT PDE INTERRELATIONSHIPS IN EGYPT?

IF SO, HOW SHOULD WE DO IT?


PRESENTATION STRUCTURE

PAST WORK IN THE WORLD POPULATION PROJECT ON POPULATION-DEVELOPMENT-INTERACTIONSA NEW MODELQUESTIONS ABOUT NEXT STEPS


PAST WORK

PDE MODELS OF MAURITIUS CAPE VERDE YUCATAN PENINSULA SOUTHERN AFRICA

BOTSWANA NAMIBIA MOZAMBIQUE


PDE QUESTIONS - MAURITIUS

WAS RAPID ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE 1980’S RELATED TO THE DECLINE IN FERTILITY IN THE 1960?

WHAT WILL POPULATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH DO TO THE WATER QUALITY OF THE LAGOON?


PDE QUESTIONS – CAPE VERDE

WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE EDUCATION DISTRIBUTION OF THE POPULATION?HOW WILL CHANGES IN EDUCATION AFFECT FERTILITY?WHAT IS THE COST OF CLEANING COASTAL WATERS?HOW WILL A CLEANER ENVIRONMENT AND A MORE EDUCATED POPULATION AFFECT TOURISM?


QUESTIONS - YUCATAN

WHAT ARE THE INTERCONNECTIONS BETWEEN TOURIST ARRIVALS, EMPLOYMENT IN TOURISM, MIGRATION, CROWDING, AND ENVIRONMENTAL CLEANLINESS?WHAT ARE THE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN TOURISM AND THE HEALTH OF NEAR-SHORE FISHERIES?


QUESTIONS - MOZAMBIQUEHOW DOES HIV/AIDS AFFECT THE RATIO OF STUDENTS TO TEACHERS?HOW WILL WATER SUPPLIES AND DEMANDS INTERACT TO INFLUENCE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY?HOW WILL CHANGES IN THE EDUCATION OF THE POPULATION AFFECT ECONOMIC GROWTH?


QUESTIONS -BOTSWANA AND NAMIBIAHOW WILL HIV/AIDS AFFECT POPULATION GROWTH?HOW WILL HIV/AIDS AFFECT THE GROWTH OF THE WORKING AGE POPULATION WITH SECONDARY SCHOOLING?HOW WILL HIV/AIDS AFFECT ECONOMIC GROWTH?


CHARACTERISTICS OF PDE STUDIES 1

LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVES USE OF COHORT – COMPONENTS POPULATION FORECASTS THAT INCLUDE ADDITIONAL DIMENSIONS, SUCH AS EDUCATION, LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION, OR HIV/AIDS STATUS.



POPULATION IS CONSIDERED TO BE ONE OF THE FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERS OF ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE.THE SKILLS OF THE LABOR FORCE, AT LEAST IN TERMS OF EDUCATION, ARE INCLUDED.



USUALLY WATER IS TAKEN AS THE MOST IMPORTANT ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABLE.

IN THE STUDIES FOR BOTSWANA AND NAMIBIA, THE ECONOMY WAS CHARACTERIZED USING GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS. IN OTHER STUDIES, MUCH SIMPLER MODELS WERE USED.


A NEW MODEL

One way to integrate Demography (including Education), Economics, and Technical Change is to use the SEDIM (Simple Economic Demographic Interaction Model) Model. Development of this model began at IIASA during this year – and it is still in the formulative stages.


COBB-DOUGLAS PRODUCTION FUNCTION

1KtLtAtGDP )()()(


Education and Production

Demography and in particular education affects labor input, capital input, and technology.


Education in Egypt

Technically, it is reasonably simple to make scenarios for education and to deduce their consequences for future education distributions.


Egypt 2000Egypt 2030

Constant education scenario


Egypt 2000Egypt 2030

Strong enrolment increase scenario


Education and Egypt’s Economy

Direct Education Effects: Productivity Savings Invention and Technology Transfers


Education and Egypt’s Economy

Indirect Effects: Fertility Age structure

Aggregative Savings and Investment Labor Force Pension requirements Intrafamily transfers Taxes Technology


Average Education Per Worker

Average Education Per Worker

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Year

Av

era

ge

Ye

ars

of

Ed

uc

ati

on

Continuation

Less Education

More Education


GDP and EducationGDP and Education in Egypt

2000 = 100

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Year

Re

al G

DP Continuation

Less Education

More Education


Real Output per CapitaReal Output per Capita

2000 = 100

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Year

Ou

tpu

t p

er

ca

pit

a

Continuation

Less Education

More Education


Rates of Per Capita Economic Growth

Rates of Per Capita Economic Growth

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Year

gro

wth

ra

te

Continuation

Less Education

More Education


Output per worker

Real Output per Worker2000=100

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Year

Ou

tpu

t p

er

wo

rke

r

Continuation

Less Education

More Education


Total Fertility RatesTotal Fertility Rate

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

20

00

20

08

20

16

20

24

20

32

20

40

20

48

20

56

20

64

20

72

20

80

20

88

20

96

Year

TF

R

Continuation

Less Education

More Education


Technology and EducationTechnology Indicator

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

20

01

20

09

20

17

20

25

20

33

20

41

20

49

20

57

20

65

20

73

20

81

20

89

20

97

Year

Te

ch

Ind

ica

tor

(20

01

= 1

00

)

Continuation

Less Education

More Education


Water

It is possible to link water demand to this model. One possibility is take a country (for example Germany) and compute Egypt’s water demands if domestic, industrial, and agricultural water use intensities approached those of that country by the end of the century.


Some Major Limitations at this point

The parameterization of SEDIM for Egypt is very rough.The model has to be made “open” to be made more relevant for Egypt.Transitions from intrafamily support for the elderly to state pensions or private capital market savings have to be considered.


SEDIM is only one possibility

There are a number of different ways of linking population, education, economic growth, and technology.

What is the best way forward?


THANK YOU.

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