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2nd Conference of the OECD International Network on the Financial Management of Large-scale Catastrophes

Session 2: Natural hazard awareness and disaster risk reduction education

The role of the WMO in natural hazard awareness and disaster risk reduction education;

Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.Chief of WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Programme

September 24, 2009, Bangkok, Thailand

Potential role of Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services within more comprehensive National Disaster Risk Management Programmes

Risk TransferRisk Identification

Hazard databases

Hazard statistics

Climate forecasting and trend analysis

Exposed assets & vulnerability

Risk analysis tools

PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning

MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture)

CAT insurance & bonds

Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives

Other emerging products

Risk Reduction

Information and Knowledge SharingEducation and training

Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration

2

1

3

Monitoring and Evaluation of

national practices

Identification and Documentation of

Good Practices and learning Lessons

Development of Guidelines based on

Lessons Learnt

National and Regional Projects

•Implementation of projects,

Systematically linking know-how to capacity development projects

Training, Institutional Capacities Building,

sharing good practices and lessons learnt linked to projects

Risk TransferRisk Identification

Hazard databases

Hazard statistics

Climate forecasting and trend analysis

Exposed assets & vulnerability

Risk analysis tools

PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning

MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture)

CAT insurance & bonds

Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives

Other emerging products

Risk Reduction

Information and Knowledge SharingEducation and training

Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration

Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Risk Assessment

Systematic documentation of good practices and guidelines initiated

Standardization of Hazard Data, metadata and analysis tools

– Guidelines for floods, droughts, tropical cyclones and storm surges and other meteorological hazards underway

Initiatives underway for standardization of hazard information

for Floods, Droughts, Meteorological Hazards

FLOOD

1. Flood hazard data and mapping guidelines (underway)

2. Drought assessment and mapping (underway)

3. Storm Surge hazard data and mapping (underway)

4. Other meteorological hazards data and mapping guidelines (initiated (March 2009) • Severe Weather, Heat waves, Tropical

Cyclones

5. Tools to assess evolution of hazard trends in the future …(next step)

First Implementation of Flood and Drought Hazard Mapping underway in South Eastern Europe (with UNDP, World Bank, ISDR)) Partnership Development Projects with other UN Agencies

Risk TransferRisk Identification

Hazard databases

Hazard statistics

Climate forecasting and trend analysis

Exposed assets & vulnerability

Risk analysis tools

PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning

MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture)

CAT insurance & bonds

Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives

Other emerging products

Risk Reduction

Information and Knowledge SharingEducation and training

Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration

Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Risk Reduction

Meteorological

Hydrological

Geological

Marine

Health (etc.)

COORDINATION AMONGNATIONAL SERVICES

feedback

feedback

Community Preparedness

warnings

National to local governments

supported by DRR plans, legislation

and coordination mechanisms

warnings

feedback

What is an Effective EWS?

warnings

preventiveactions

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2

3

4

5

5

33

5

Synthesis & guidelines developed from four “good practices”

Capacity development in Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems with Focus on Institutional Coordination,

Cooperation and NMHSs

Guidelines(Section 3)

Synthesis of Good Practices in Early Warning Systems and Role of NMHS in Multi-hazard EWS

(Section 4)

Bangladesh Cyclone

Preparedness Programme

(Annex I)

Cuba Tropical Cyclone Early

Warning System

(Annex II)

French “Vigilance System”

(Annex III)

Shanghai Multi-Hazard

Emergency Preparedness Programme

(Annex IV)

first document of a series of guidelines that the WMO is developing in the field of Early Warning Systems.

Systematic documentation of good practices in Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems

• Four good practices in Multi-Hazard EWS Documented

Cuba, France, China/Shanghai, Bangladesh

• Guidelines on “Capacity Development in Multi-Hazard EWS with focus on Institutional Coordination and NMHS,” nearly finalized

• Training package being published (Springer Verlag 2010)

Focus: Institutional cooperation and coordinationTargeting: Directors of Disaster Risk Management and National

Metrological and Hydrological Services Programme:• Training on good practices in EWS• Training in guidelines on « Capacity development in Multi-

Hazard Early Warning Systems with Focus on Institutional Coordination, Cooperation”

• Interactive discussions to assess participating countries capacities, gaps and needs

• Opportunities for regional cooperation • Outcomes are linked to development projects

Training workshops on Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (2009-2010)

Training workshops on Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (2009-2010)

South East Europe

Southern and Eastern Africa

Central America and the

CarribeansSouth East Asia

Risk TransferRisk Identification

Hazard databases

Hazard statistics

Climate forecasting and trend analysis

Exposed assets & vulnerability

Risk analysis tools

PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning

MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture)

CAT insurance & bonds

Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives

Other emerging products

Risk Reduction

Information and Knowledge SharingEducation and training

Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration

Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for Financial Risk Transfer Markets

Participants: (8 re-insurers, 13 Met Services, WFP, World Bank, UNDP, WRMA)

USER Perspectives:

• Information (data and forecasts):– Availability and accessibility of historical and real-time data

– Data quality assurance, filling data gaps, Other data value-added services (??)

– Reliability, authoritative and timeliness of data (for contract design and settlement)

– Medium-term Weather and Seasonal Forecasts (portfolio management and forward looking risk analysis)

– Long term trend analysis (long-term market development strategy)

• Technical support and Service delivery

Meteorological Services Perspectives:

• Need for awareness raising among Met services

• Resources, ability and priorities to deliver

• “Commercial” ,“Security” and “Turf” Issues associated with data accessibility

Requirements for Meteorological and Hydrological information to support Financial Risk Transfer

Dec 2007, WMO Headquarters

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/dpm/cat-insurance-wrm-markets-2007/index_en.html

Systematic documentation of good practices and guidelines initiated

Training Materials to support financial risk transfer markets

WMO/World Bank/WFP will be developing joint report on lesson’s learnt from pilots

Information Service delivery: Experiences of National Meteorological Services for provision of data and information to this market will be

documented (2009-2010)

Progress with Catastrophe (CAT) Insurance / Bond and Weather Risk Management Markets

Drought Risk Management in Ethiopia

Malawi Drought Risk Management

Southeastern Europe Disaster Risk management Project

& Southeastern and Central European Risk Insurance Facility

UK Flood CAT Bond

CAT Bond Markets post Hurricane Andrew

Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility

Pacific Risk Insurance Facility

Indian Agricultural Risk

European Agricultural Risk

Hydro Electric Power Risk Contracts

Wind Power Risk Contracts

Catastrophe Insurance and Bond Markets

Weather Risk Management Markets (ART)

Heating Degree Day Contracts

Developing Tools and Training on Climate Forecasting and Analysis

toolsStatistical analysis of historical data

is only first estimate . Needs for forward looking information to

augment statistical hazard analysis and mapping

Impact of climate on sectors are linked to….

• Changing patterns of hydro-meteorological extremes

– Frequency, severity and location of droughts, floods, tropical cyclones, heat waves, etc

• Accumulation of risk linked to deviations of meteorological and hydrological conditions from normal

– Variations and changes in the onset of seasons, changes in the rainfall amounts and patters, etc.

Emerging Technologies (Weather and Climate Time Scales)

Short- to Medium-Range

WeatherSeasonal Forecasts

Short-Term ClimateLong-Term

Climate

0-14 days months to seasons decades to century

Forward looking risk analysis for improved planning and risk managment

Utilization in the financial risk transfer markets

IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

Climate variability and change and their impacts are not uniform

geographically

(IPCC, 2007)

Trends in heavy rainfall

Drou

ghts

Need for production of local climate information…

Highly Resource Intensive!

Trends in Frost and Heat Waves

Global/Regional/National Cooperation Framework For Provisions of Climate Services

Four Major Thrusts: • Understanding of information needs of at-risk sectors

– Through partnerships (with UN, international and regional agencies)

• Designation and coordination of network of global and regional climate centers – to faciliate provision of forecasting and analysis tools and

information to national centers

• Strengthen observation networks • More targeted climate research

Gobal Producing Centres of Long Range Forecasts (GPCs)

Regional Climate Centres (RCCs)

RCC Network Nodes (Pilot)

Global/Regional Network of WMO Designated Climate Centers

Washington

Montreal

Exeter

ECMWF

Toulouse

Moscow

Pretoria

Melbourne

BeijingSeoul

Tokyo

Lead Centre for SVSLRF

Lead Centre for LRFMME

SVSLRF: Standardized Verification System for Long Range ForecastsLRFMME: Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble

CLW/CLPA/WCAS

Climate Risk management Project in AfricaWMO/World Bank Project in Africa

Funded by GFDRR

• Countries: Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Somalia, Tanzania, and Uganda

• Objectives: Development of climate information based on observations and latest climate tools and forecasting technologies

• Sectors: Agriculture and water resource management

• Timeline of data: Different climate scales up to 20 years:

• Partners– National: NMHS, sectors representatives – International/Regional: World Bank, – Technical: GlobalClimate Centers (US, UK,

ECMWF, Pretoria) and Regional centers (IGAD)• Status: Project was launch on June 21• World Bank project manager: Amal Talbi-Jordan

For more information please contact:Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction ProgrammeWorld Meteorological OrganizationTel. 41.22.730.8006Fax. 41.22.730.8023Email. MGolnaraghi@WMO.int

http://www.wmo.int/disasters

Thank You