World Outlook in 2060

World in 2060 or Rise and fall of Top Economic Power By: Gholamhossein Davani

NYSSCPA, CAAA, APCBC, CFE, IICA

It is about 15 years that China and emerging economic are main problem for

traditional economic power. In 1900, London was the capital of the world. As

was famously remarked, “The Sun never set on the British empire”. European

Imperialist nations were grabbing colonies in Asia, Africa and Latin America.

All the great superpowers were prospering, although at the expense of their

colonies. One would have expected the world to be peaceful and stable as

everyone was gaining. By the 1950s, the United Kingdom was replaced as the

superpower by one of its former colonies, the United States of America. After

the Second World War the two super power controlled all the around the world

and cold war replace real war. By the fall down Soviet Union and finishing cold

war the globalization process was raise but with credit crisis and also financial

crisis after 2007 ,this is an effort by every body to predict what the world may

be by 2030, 2050 or 2060 ?!

The main indicators to compare world economy are Gross Domestic Product

(GDP) based on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) that public people don’t

understand what PPP is?!!

After Raise of China Dragon and especially financial crisis 2002, all advanced

countries were looking head "What happen in future" .In 2003, Goldman Sachs

attempted to project which countries had the potential to become the world's

largest economies over the next fifty years. in the other hand Price Water House

& Coopers (PWC) the World top accounting firm also published special report

was named world in 2050 .PWC presented new model for future economy

projection but six months after PWC report Credit Crisis was begun that hasn't

estimated by any professional economist in spite that they were declare to can

projection future economy!!

I am certified public accountant but interested in political economy and many of

my articled are about political economy and Economic development .I review

and study carefully all articles and published related to future economy and find

that majority researcher use only one method to compare world different

economic to show which economic is stronger or bigger .This method is named

PPP.

3

What is PPP?!

A purchasing power parity (PPP) between two countries, A and B, is the ratio of

the number of units of country A’s currency needed to purchase in country A

the same quantity of a specific good or service as one unit of country B’s

currency will purchase in country B. PPPs can be expressed in the currency of

either of the countries. In practice, they are usually computed among large

numbers of countries and expressed in terms of a single currency, with the U.S.

dollar (US$) most commonly used as the base or “numeracies” currency" -

Global Purchasing Power Parities and Real Expenditures. 2005 International

Comparison Program. The World Bank.

The review of PPP shows this scale and indicator is not reasonable and logical

to compare different economic as capital is social relation so we need several

factors to compare these relation, especially when we want to use "Super

power" terminology in economic and political .The super power is not only

word or sound but super power has some specific factors.

Which factors are necessary for economic super power?!

To be economic super power the country must be have necessary several factors

as same as:

1- Population

2- Natural resources

3- Human resources ( people educated)

4- Personal economic out put

5- GDP per capital

6- Area

7- Strong Military

8- Democracy and transparency

9- Good governance

10-Access to water and healthy for population

For example countries with the most highly educated citizens are also some of

the wealthiest in the world. The United States, Japan and Canada are on our list

and also have among the largest GDPs. Norway and Australia, also featured,

have the second and sixth-highest GDPs per capita, respectively. All these

countries aggressively invest in education. The countries that invest the most in

education have the most-educated people. All of the best-educated countries,

except for the UK, fall within the top 15 OECD countries for greatest spending

on tertiary — that is, college or college-equivalent — spending as a percentage

of GDP. The U.S. spends the second most and Canada spends the fourth most.

Interestingly, public expenditure on educational institutions relative to private

spending by these countries is small compared with other countries in the

OECD. While the majority of education is still funded with public money, eight

of the countries on our list rely the least on public funding as a percentage of

total education spending.

4

Table (1) – Top 10 Educated Countries 2012

Rank Country

Ave. Annual

Grow

rate 1999-2009

Population

With

postsecondary

GDP Per

Capital

Pop. Grow

rate

(2000-2009)

1 Canada 2.30% 50% 39,070 9.89%

2 Israel 3.2 45% 28,596 19.02%

3 Japan 3.20% 44% 33,751 0.46

4 USA 1.40% 41% 46,588 8.68%

5 New Zealand 3.50% 40% 29,871 11.88

6 S. Korea 5.30% 39% 29,101 3.70%

7 Norway 2.7 37% 56,617 7.52%

8 UK 4% 37% 35,504 3.47%

9 Australia 3.30% 37% 40,719 14.63%

10 Finland 1.80% 37% 36,585 3.15%

Source: www.247 wallst.com

Although develop countries spend so much more than emerging countries on

research and development (R&D) that this index shows access knowledge

base product. Table below shows what percentage of GDP allocated to R&D

in developed countries. Table (2) - Research and development spending to GDP 2011

Rank Country

Expenditures

on R&D

($Bln. PPP)

% of

GDP PPP

1 USA 405.3 2.7%

2 China 153.7 1.4%

3 Japan 144.1 3.3%

4 Germany 69.5 2.3%

5 S. Korea 44.8 3.0%

6 France 42.2 1.9%

7 UK 38.4 1.7%

8 India 36.1 0.9%

9 Canada 24.3 1.8%

10 Russia 23.1 1.0%

11 Brazil 19.4 0.9%

12 Italy 19 1.1%

13 Taiwan 19 2.3%

14 Spain 17.2 1.3%

15 Australia 15.9 1.7%

16 Sweden 11.9 3.3%

17 Netherlands 10.8 1.6%

18 Israel 9.4 4.2%

19 Austria 8.3 2.5%

20 Swiss 7.5 2.3%

5

In spite that China might overtake the US to become the largest economy in the

world before 2017, and even might be India can take over US by 2050 in GDP

by base of PPP but realty it is joke that we can accept India or China can be

main competitor US Economy that I will show in GDP nominal they are so

different .Unfortunately all comparison has been done by everyone ,all

estimates are based on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), an economic growth

indicator that takes into account the purchasing power of each country's

currency, instead of the prevailing exchange rate conversion. For example

China economy is expected to be nearly $Bln. 88,086 on PPP basis by 2060

from $ Bln.11,290 in 2011. Our report said China will pass the US as the

largest economy in the world in 2025 with purchase power parity US GDP will

be $ Bln. 22,749 in compare with China GDP $ Bln.23,774 so China will be

ahead of US with more than $ Bln. 1,025

The US was the world’s largest economy for about a century, since the British

Empire suffered severely in the Second World War. China can now look for a

reign on the throne for about 30-40 years before the currently fastest growing

major economy, India, is likely to surpass them. India became the world’s third

largest economy current year and passed Japan with the help of their growing

population and will challenge the size of the US economy in a decade.US

Companies are 132 as 500 top largest companies against China 86 and Japan 68

in 2012.

Even though China will pass the US in total, the US will be the second largest

economy after 2025 and is still by far the nation with the biggest GDP per

capita with $ 59,088 followed by China as$ 17,942 that US GDP per capital

will 3.29 times more than China.

Comparison of GDP per capita level and contrary to most expectations, the US

would continue to be the leading global superpower. Even today despite the

recession, the US GDP per capital in 2025 will be estimated more than the next

four nations put together. Especially demographics of the US would be

radically different as the white majority today will be overtaken by huge influx

of intelligent immigrants and also a secular and democratic state, the US would

be the leader in technology, military as well as the global economy. In the other

hand don't forget that new emerging economic would be top large economy in

1800 age. Look at the below table that shows GDP period 1700-1973.

6

Table (3)-GDP Comparison 1700- 1973

The above table emphasis the new emerging market would be super power 18th

and 19th

. Age!!

Year 1700 1870 1913 1950 1973

USA 0.5 98 517 1455 3536

Russian 16 83 232 510 1513

UK 10 100 347 675 1280

Japan 15 25 71 161 1242

India 90 134 204 222 494

Germany 13 72 237 265 944

France 19 72 144 220 683

China 82 189 241 244 739

Italy 14 41 95 164 582

Spain 7 19 41 61 266

Mexico 25 6 25 67 279

World 371 1,110 2,733 5,331 16,022

For more information table (4) shows historical changes in GDP Countries and Region as $ M.USD between 1-2003 Table (4)- Historical World GDP $ Million USD 1-2003

Country / Region 1 1000 1500 1600 1700 1820 1870 1913 1950 1973 2003

Austria 213 298 1,414 2,093 2,483 4,104 8,419 23,451 25,702 85,227 173,311

Belgium 135 170 1,225 1,561 2,288 4,529 13,716 32,347 47,190 118,516 219,069

Denmark 72 144 443 569 727 1,471 3,782 11,670 29,654 70,032 124,781 Finland 8 16 136 215 255 913 1,999 6,389 17,051 51,724 106,749

France 2,366 2,763 10,912 15,559 19,539 35,468 72,100 144,489 220,492 683,965 1,315,601 Germany 1,225 1,435 8,256 12,656 13,650 26,819 72,149 237,332 265,354 944,755 1,577,423 Italy 6,475 2,250 11,550 14,410 14,630 22,535 41,814 95,487 164,957 582,713 1,110,691 Netherlands 85 128 723 2,072 4,047 4,288 9,952 24,955 60,642 175,791 348,464

Norway 40 80 183 266 361 777 2,360 5,988 17,728 44,852 118,591

Sweden 80 160 382 626 1,231 3,098 6,927 17,403 47,269 109,794 193,352

Switzerland 128 123 411 750 1,068 2,165 5,581 16,483 42,545 117,251 164,773

UK 320 800 2,815 6,007 10,709 36,232 100,180 224,618 347,850 675,941 1,280,625 Sub-total (1) 11,146 8,366 38,450 56,784 70,988 142,399 338,979 840,612 1,286,434 3,660,561 6,733,430

Portugal 180 255 606 814 1,638 3,043 4,219 7,467 17,615 63,397 144,694

Spain 1,867 1,800 4,495 7,029 7,481 12,299 19,556 41,653 61,429 266,896 684,537

Other 1,240 504 632 975 1,106 2,110 4,712 12,478 30,600 105,910 294,733

Total Western Europe 14,433 10,925 44,183 65,602 81,213 159,851 367,466 902,210 1,396,078 4,096,764 7,857,394 Eastern Europe 1,956 2,600 6,696 9,289 11,393 24,906 50,163 134,793 185,023 550,756 786,408 Former USSR 1,560 2,840 8,458 11,426 16,196 37,678 83,646 232,351 510,243 1,513,070 1,552,231

USA 272 520 800 600 527 12,548 98,374 517,383 1,455,916 3,536,622 8,430,762 Other Western offshoots 176 228 320 320 306 951 13,119 65,558 179,574 521,667 1,277,267

Total Western offshoots 448 748 1,120 920 833 13,499 111,493 582,941 1,635,490 4,058,289 9,708,029

Mexico 880 1,800 3,188 1,134 2,558 5,000 6,214 25,921 67,368 279,302 740,226

Other Latin America 1,360 2,760 4,100 2,629 3,788 9,921 21,097 94,875 347,960 1,110,158 2,391,919

Total Latin America 2,240 4,560 7,288 3,763 6,346 14,921 27,311 120,796 415,328 1,389,460 3,132,145

Japan 1,200 3,188 7,700 9,620 15,390 20,739 25,393 71,653 160,966 1,242,932 2,699,261

China 26,820 26,550 61,800 96,000 82,800 228,600 189,740 241,431 244,985 739,414 6,187,984

India 33,750 33,750 60,500 74,250 90,750 111,417 134,882 204,242 222,222 494,832 2,267,136

Other east Asia 4,845 8,968 20,822 24,582 28,440 36,451 53,155 122,874 256,938 839,258 3,926,975

West Asia 10,120 12,415 10,495 12,637 12,291 15,270 22,468 40,588 106,283 548,120 1,473,739 Total Asia (excl. Japan) 75,535 81,683 153,617 207,469 214,281 391,738 400,245 609,135 830,428 2,621,624 13,855,834

Africa 8,030 13,835 19,383 23,473 25,776 31,266 45,234 79,486 203,131 549,993 1,322,087 World 105,402 120,379 248,445 331,562 371,428 694,598 1,110,951 2,733,365 5,331,689 16,022,888 40,913,389

Source: Wikipedia

But what was happened after 2000?!

Table below shows changing process to world GDP after 2000 that is huge

different with table (4).

Table (5)- Historical World GDP 2000-2060

Year $Billion Year $ Billion

2060 350,000 1990 27,537

2040 210,000 1970 12,137

2030 145,000 1950 4081

2020 111,088 1940 3001

2017 98,041 1920 1733

2015 74,604 1900 1102

2010 56,794 1875 568.8

2000 41,016 1700 99.8

A natural rivalry will arise between the US and China of which the signs are

evident even today. Looking to seek revenge, the rule in China will become

even more dictatorial and anti-US sentiment will grow specially they think all

matters related to Middle East and replace US army in Afghan and Iraq is by the

control oil and Gas resources to control China and India grow . I arranged all

main economic keys are these two countries in table (3) to can compare why

WE and China could be super power!!

9

Table (6)- Comparison Key Economic Facts US and China 2102

Key Fact USA China Key Fact USA China

GDO-Current USD 14,660 5,875 Industrial output 2008-B-USD 3,073 2,104

GDP-PPPB-USD 14,660 10,900 Agricultural output 2008-USDB 183 489

%World Export 28.11 29.7 Meat Product 2008-Tonnes 43 74

% of world Goods Export 8.4 10.4 Fruit Product-2008M-Tonnes 28 107

%of world services export 42.17 17.3 vegetable-M -Tonnes 36 457

Trade balance 2008 (504) 426 Cereal-M-Tonnes 481 403

Official Reserve B-USD 132 2,876 Wheat 1000 Tonnes-2009 60,400 115,100

Official Gold Reserve B-USD 284 36 Rice -1000Tonnes -200 --- 136,570

Industrial output 2008B-USD 1,831 1.85 Coarsegrains-1000-Tonnes 349,000 164,900

Services Out put 2008 B-USD 10,562 1,734 Tea - 1000Tonnes 2009 --- 1,203

Cooper-1000Tnnes-2009 1.204 691 Raw wool-1000 Tonnes 2009 --- 167

Lead - 1000 Tonnes 409 1,908 Cotton1000Tonnes2009 2,654 6,925

Zink-1000Tonnes 690 3,092 Major oilseeds-1000Tonnes 2009-10 100,410 72,540

Tin-1000Tonnes --- 128 Oil-1000 barrel per day 7,513 4,071

Nikel-1000Tonnes --- Mar-00 Natural gas B-cubic metric 2010 611 96.8

Aluminium-1000tonnes 1.727 12,846 Coal -M-Tonnes 552 1,800

Precious metal -Tonnes 223 314 Energy product-M-Tonnes 1,665 1,814

Platinum-Tonnes 7.4 --- Energy consumers - M-tonnes 2,284 2,116

Rubber-1000Tonnes 1,962 3,500 innovation index 5,65 ?

%R&D Expenditure to GDP 2.76 1.54 Car produt-1000 5,711 13,790

No.Patents2006-008 82,284 34,537 Road network -1000Km 6,486 3,799

Direct Foreign Invest B-USD 316 108 Railway network- 1000Km 226 63.6

Share of Top 24 big Company 14 2 Merchant fleets 1,782 3,499

Share of Top 15 banks --- 3 No. household-M 117 384

Stock Market 17,139 4,769 Energy largest producer M-Tonnes 1,993 1,705

10

The world economy grew was %5 in 2010. That its fastest rate for many years,

led by the extraordinary boom in China and very high growth in most other

third world countries too. America and Japan also had fairly strong growth,

although Western Europe had a more dismal performance but in 2011 the grow

rate decreased to %3.9. Can the good times be appears in next year Or is the

world economy heading for a crisis?

Table (7) – Main index famous economy 2011

Index UK Germany France USA

GDP Real Grow rate (2.3) (1.4) 0.5 (1.8)

%Net government Debt to GDP 97.2 87.3 102.4 103.6

Grow rate of GDP 0.6 0.6 0.2 2.3

Inflation 3.4 2.3 2.3 2.9

Source: Financial times Jan. 2012

What was happened that the world economic boom has been

driven?! The several economists researcher report emphasis that the world economic

boom has been driven by two factors that first is t it has been driven by a

gradual special economic in China, India, Brazil and even Russia that said "

Control government market " . The average tariff level in a country like China

has been lowered from 41% in 1992 to 6% in 2004. The increased new

capitalism ( Controlled Market ) of world trade has increased the scope of

international division of labor and permanently helped raise growth in the world

as a whole and in particular in third-world countries. Particularly if trade is

freed even more, this factor should continue to help the world economy to

prosper. Another reason for the increased growth in emerging economies is the

free market reforms implemented there with a country like China transforming

itself from one of the most destructive communist systems in the history of

mankind (that is saying a lot) to a virtual "capitalist paradise" with a seemingly

endless supply of cheap but competent labor and with no welfare state and no

unions and with many other emerging economies also undertaking free market

reforms of varying radicalism.

To better understand the prospects for the world economy, should analyze in

more detail the strengths and weaknesses of the four main economic

powerhouses of the world, was named BRIC includes Brazil ,Russia ,India and

China (BRIC) .Remind that BRIC is a grouping acronym that refers to the

countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China, which are all deemed to be at a

similar stage of newly advanced economic development. It is typically rendered

as "the BRICs" or "the BRIC countries" or "the BRIC economies" or

alternatively as the "Big Four"- Wikipedia-.

11

Brazil is currently growing at a relatively slow pace, with seasonally-adjusted

first quarter real GDP growth of 0.2% over the previous quarter. The economy

is suffering from a weak and volatile Real which although helps exporters,

harms companies who have borrowed in US$. Consumer demand remains

strong however bolstered by low unemployment, which is has averaged 5.9% in

the first four months of 2012. Brazil has moderately free markets and an

inward-oriented economy. Its economy is the largest in Latin American nations

and the second largest in the western hemisphere. Brazil is one of the fastest-

growing major economies in the world with an average annual GDP growth rate

of over 5 percent. Brazilian GDP was $ Bln.2,172 in 2011 . The Brazilian

economy has been predicted to become one of the four largest economies in the

world in the decades to come.

Russia has a market economy with enormous natural resources, particularly oil

and natural gas. It has the 12th largest economy in the world by nominal GDP

and the 7th largest by purchasing power parity (PPP). Since the turn of the 21st

century, higher domestic consumption and greater political stability have

bolstered economic growth in Russia. The country ended 2008 with its ninth

straight year of growth, averaging 7% annually. Growth was primarily driven

by non-traded services and goods for the domestic market, as opposed to oil or

mineral extraction and exports. The average salary in Russia was $640 per

month in early 2008, up from $80 in 2000. Approximately 13.7% of Russians

lived below the national poverty line in 2010, significantly down from 40% in

1998 at the worst of the post-Soviet collapse. Unemployment in Russia was at

6% in 2007, down from about 12.4% in 1999. The middle class has grown from

just 8 million persons in 2000 to 55 million persons in 2006.

Russia's problem is not economic and it has never been economic it is basically

a moral problem and until that problem is solved, no reasonable economic

system, no market economy...has a chance of taking root there. Russia's

transition from "Governmental Capitalism “ to "criminal capitalism" had

occurred in three stages includes hyperinflation, privatization, and

criminalization. Hyperinflation began on 1992, when the Gaidar government

freed virtually all prices, consequently wiping out the life-savings of millions of

Russians. Oil, natural gas, metals, and timber account for more than 80% of

Russian exports abroad. Since 2003, however, exports of natural resources

started decreasing in economic importance as the internal market strengthened

considerably. Despite higher energy prices, oil and gas only contribute to 5.7%

of Russia’s GDP and the government predicts this will drop to 3.7% by 2011.

Oil export earnings allowed Russia to increase its foreign reserves from $12

billion in 1999 to $597.3 billion on 1 August 2008, the third largest foreign

exchange reserves in the world. The macroeconomic policy under Finance

Minister Alexei Kudrin was prudent and sound, with excess income being

stored in the Stabilization Fund of Russia. In 2006, Russia repaid most of its

12

formerly massive debts, leaving it with one of the lowest foreign debts among

major economies. The Stabilization Fund helped Russia to come out of the

global financial crisis in a much better state than many experts had expected.

According to the International Monetary Fund, India’s nominal GDP stood at

$Bln-Us 1,676, which makes it the eleventh-largest economy in the world,

corresponding to a per capita income of $ US 1100. If purchasing power parity

(PPP) is taken into account, India’s economy is the fourth largest in the world at

$Bln-Us 4,460. With an average annual GDP growth rate of 5.8% for the past

two decades, India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world. With

an estimated population in 2050 of 1.63 billion, India will thus have a per capita

income of over $53,000 - in the range of today's wealthiest countries like

Switzerland and Norway. Sounds too good to be true? Of course it is. As Japan

foreign debt is growing up and country's debt is projected to be 239% of the

size of its economy by the end of 2012, according to the IMF. No other country

is even close so India takes over Japan rank.

India has the world’s second largest labour force, with 467 million people. In

terms of output, the agricultural sector accounts for 28% of GDP; the service

and industrial sectors make up 54% and 18% respectively. Major agricultural

products include rice, wheat, oilseed, cotton, jute, tea, sugarcane, potatoes.

Major industries include textiles, telecommunications, chemicals, food

processing, steel, transport equipment, cement, mining, petroleum, machinery

and software. India’s external trade has reached a relatively moderate share of

24% of GDP in 2006, up from 6% in 1985. In 2008, India’s share of world trade

was about 1.68%; in 2009, it was the world’s fifteenth largest importer and

eighteenth largest exporter. Major exports include petroleum products, textile

goods, gems and jewelry, software, engineering goods, chemicals, and leather

manufactures. Major imports include crude oil, machinery, gems, fertilizer, and

chemicals. In India, inflation remains a concern with the wholesale index price

accelerating in April to 7.2% (seasonally-adjusted) on a year earlier reversing

previous falls. Industrial output and exports have also registered falls and there

are increasing fears about a slowdown in consumer demand – as well as the

impact of the euro zone crisis. These trends combined to produce seasonally-

adjusted real GDP growth of 1.3% in the first quarter of 2012 over the previous

quarter. India being democratic will continue on its path to development and In

view of its continuing robust growth, India is expected to be the world's largest

economy by 2050, surpassing China and the United States, a City report said.

India will be inducted into the Security Council as a permanent member along

with Brazil. Asia will become bi-polar with India and China leading two camps,

one based on democracy with the other bolstering communist and autocratic

rule.

China will continue to grow in the beginning of the 21st century. China

economic grow rate between 1989-1999 was 9.9 and between 1992-2009 was

10.3 the highest economic grow and must relax its grip on industry and move

13

towards a Control -market economy, and World Bank has said in a report that

forecast the country would become the world's largest economy before 2030.

China’s GDP for 2011 was $Bln.10,085 the second world largest economy after

USA. The trade weighted tariff rate is 4.2% with layers of non-tariff barriers

adding to the cost of trade. The investmentregim is non-transparent and

inefficient. The state control of the financial system as its primery means the

rest of economy. The government owns all large financial institution .Which

lend according to state priorities and directives and large state enterprise with

inflation rate as 3.3%.

China relies very little to foreign borrowing and its growth id financial from

resources extracted from its own population, not from fickle foreigners free to

flee, as happened in South-East Asia and happening again in Euro zone

!!.China ‘s saving rate ,at 51% of GDP, is even higher than its investment rate

this opportunity allows china access to jump to capital per head and if china can

access to $40,000 per head their economy size will be equal $Bln.54 that

would be 3.7 times more that US size!! But according to official (Nominal)

GDP statistics converted at current exchange rates, in all indirect indicators of

economic size, the Chinese economy is the second largest in the world, for

example, the biggest consumer of coal, steel, and many other commodities and

the second biggest consumer of oil (after America). Of course, there are

potential dangers for China which could at least temporarily derail its strong

growth. The fast transition of the country could potentially create great social

unrest. The Chinese banking system looks very fragile as it is heavily burdened

by bad loans. Moreover, China is far too dependent on exports to America.

China's exports to America last year were some 12% of GDP and the bilateral

trade surplus was 10% of GDP. This makes China very vulnerable to an

economic downturn in America. First because of its direct negative effect on

exports and second because China is likely to be blamed for the crisis which

could create a protectionist backlash which will severely damage the Chinese

economy. This means that while the short-term outlook for the Chinese

economy is strong, it risks heavy damages from any economic crisis in

America, something which in turn poses risks for social unrest and for the

fragile banking system. China policy maker are very intelligent that could

supervisory and marker controlled to avoid financial criss same USA or Europe.

The story for some of the other major emerging economies, like Brazil, India

and Russia, have many similarities with that of China as they have also started

to liberalize their economies, something which has helped boost their growth

rates. Their potential may not be as great as that of China because their cultures

are not as inclined towards thrift and entrepreneurship as the Chinese culture

and because in the case of Brazil and Russia their populations are much smaller

and in the case of Russia shrinking. India is also still plagued by the unofficial

caste system which makes it more difficult to spread the success to the entire

population than in China. The Russian and Brazilian economies are also to a

14

dangerously high extent dependent on oil and agriculture respectively. Even so,

they and many other emerging economies will likely increase in importance.

We propose in compare world economy, should be show GDP and GDP per

capital to find which economic is stronger so table (6) compare these range.

Note that inspite that GDP per head some countries same Iran and Persian Golf

Countries are higher than China and India but their GDP are related to export

Oil and Gas not Industry product .

15

Table (8)- Comparison GDP & GDP per Head 2011

Country

GDP

Per Head

GDP at

PPP Country

GDP

Per Head GDP at PPP

USD $Bln-USD USD $Bln-USD

USA 47,200 14,657 Japan 33,805 4,309

Europe 32,700 14,820 S.Korea 29,836 1,459

World 10,886 74,264 Russian 15,837 2,222

Canada 38,989 1,330 Mexico 14,430 1,567

Germany 36,033 2,940 Brazil 11,239 2,172

Taiwan 35,227 821 China 7,650 10,085

UK 34,920 2,172 India 3,339 4,060

France 34,077 2,145 Iran 10,866 818

Source: CIA Fact Book 2012

Review of historical GDP per capital after Second World War in 1954 (table 9)

and compare with table (8) shows how Courtiers replaces with others .

Table (9) – GDP per Capital in 1954

Rank Country GPC-$US Rank Country GPC-$ US

1 USA 9,573 13 Norway 4,969

2 Swiss 8,939 14 Germany 4,281

3 New Zealand 8,495 15 Finland 4,131

4 Venezuela 7,424 16 Italy 3,425

5 Australia 7,218 17 Russia 3,106

6 Canada 7,047 18 Spain 2,397

7 Sweden 6,738 19 Mexico 2,085

8 Danish 6,683 20 Japan 1,873

9 Netherlands 5,850 21 Turkey 1,299

10 Mexico 5,348 22 S. Korea 876

11 France 5,221 23 China 614

12 Argentina 4,987 24 India 597

16

Table (10) shows the progressive main player in economic zone from 1990 to

2017 that all readers find how emerging economic step by step grows this

power.

Table (10) - Comparison Top 16 Largest Economy 1980-2017($Bln-USD)

Country 2017 2015 2012 2010 2005 2000 1990 1980

% Average

Grow 37

year

USA 19,704 17,788 15,609 14,526 12,622 9,951 5,800 2,788 706

Japan 5324 52024 4588 4380 3889 3255 2370 996 534

Germany 3655 3440 3158 2944 2492 2144 1446 762 479

France 2667 2476 2257 2134 1860 1533 1030 536 497

UK 2838 2594 2308 2199 1993 1487 933 472 601

Italy 2062 1943 1834 1800 1641 1404 976 509 405

Spain 1625 1514 1405 1374 1184 900 551 272 597

Canada 1753 1617 1448 1334 1132 888 542 272 644

China 20336 16670 12,387 10128 5364 3014 1943 987 2060

Brazil 3120 2825 2393 2186 1584 1234 786 445 701

India 7574 6276 4824 4069 2431 1571 744 286 2646

Russian 3295 2950 2510 2237 1696 1120 0 0 2941

Mexico 2242 2028 1743 1564 1297 1065 612 336 667

Indonesia 1829 1542 1208 1034 705 501 276 107 17093

Turkey 1476 1303 1112 969 747 513 291 116 12724

S. Korea 2148 1918 1629 1468 1096 775 335 87 24689

Source: IMF

We think the GDP based in PPP isn't a reasonable economic index to compare

different economy because in metropolis countries official and PPP are similar

but in emerging countries same China, India, Brazil and Mexico these scale are

very different. The environmental, social and political challenges of

transformation have largely been ignored in the model. One does however hope

that the necessary precursors like education, good governance and health care

system which countries like Brazil and Russia require to achieve the level of

economic as described in this scenario, will also help these countries overcome

and work with the inevitable challenges that economic growth will bring.

Price Waterhouse Coopers LLP explored this in a report, entitled “The World in

2050: Beyond the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China): a broader look at

the emerging market growth prospects. This interesting analysis uses current

data to examine the 17 largest economies and the 13 emerging economies and

sets projections for 2050.

It supplants the current G7 (US, Japan, Italy, UK, France, Canada, Germany)

with a group of emerging country E7 (which includes China, India, Brazil,

Mexico, Russia, and Turkey) projecting that the emerging economies will

overtake them by 2050 by 50 percent. According to this report, China is seen to

17

surpass the US by 2025, while India is seen to reach this level of growth by

2050. As mentioned in a recent post, China is already moving away from low-

end manufacturing which is going offshore to places like Vietnam, Bangladesh

and the Philippines, which interestingly form part of the top ten next waves of

emerging nations. PWC projects that Vietnam will grow to 70 percent of the

UK economy by 2050.

China surpassed the US last year to become the second largest exporter in the

world behind Germany. PWC projects that by 2050 Brazil’s economy could be

larger than Japan’s, and the Turkish economy be as large as Italy’s economy.

Part of the reason put forward is the opportunity for increased internal

investment and growth in wealth leading to growth in domestic consumption. It

is very wonder that PWC projected world in 2050 in 2007 but couldn’t

estimated about credit crisis and financial crisis that was happened next 6

months after they reported.!!

According to data statics of international sources as IMF, World Bank

Wikipedia arranged special table as follow to the top historical economy power

till 2011 and projection for 2017 .Table (11) shows after second world war US

has been world top spot economy and Soviet Union before collapse was been

second superpower till 1980 .

18

Table (11) Historical ranking 20 top World Economic 1970-2015

Rank 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

1 USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA

2 Soviet Union Soviet Union Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan Japan China China

3 Germany Japan Soviet Union Soviet Union Germany Germany Germany Germany Japan Japan

4 Japan Germany Germany Germany France France UK UK Germany Germany

5 France France France France Italy UK France China France France

6 UK UK UK UK UK Italy China France UK Brazil

7 Italy Italy Italy Italy Soviet Union Brazil Italy Italy Brazil UK

8 China Canada Canada Canada Canada China Canada Canada Italy Russia

9 Canada China China China Spain Spain Brazil Spain India India

10 India Brazil Spain India Brazil Canada Mexico Brazil Canada Italy

11 Australia Spain Mexico Brazil China S. Korea Spain Mexico Russia Canada

12 Spain Australia Brazil Mexico Australia Netherlands S. Korea S. Korea Spain Australia

13 Mexico India India Australia India Australia India India Australia Spain

14 Brazil Mexico Netherlands Spain Netherlands Russia Australia Russia Mexico S. Korea

15 Sweden Netherlands Saudi Arabia Netherlands Mexico India Netherlands Australia S. Korea Mexico

16 Netherlands Sweden Australia Iran S. Korea Switzerland Taiwan Netherlands Netherlands Indonesia

17 Argentina Belgium Sweden Sweden Sweden Mexico Argentina Turkey Turkey Turkey

18 Poland Switzerland Belgium Saudi Arabia Switzerland Belgium Turkey Belgium Indonesia Netherlands

19 Belgium Turkey Argentina Switzerland Belgium Taiwan Russia Switzerland Switzerland Saudi Arabia

20 Turkey Argentina Switzerland S. Korea Turkey Argentina Switzerland Sweden Belgium Switzerland

19

We found GDP contribution of top 20 economies 2011 that shows majority of

GDP related to US and EU and Japan coming from services in compare with

China that come from %46 and also Russia %36.9 from industry!!

Table (12) Comparison Top 20 Largest GDP contributions 2011

Country Services Industry Agriculture

USA 79.60% 19.20% 1.20%

China 43.10% 46.80% 10%

Japan 71.60% 27.30% 1.20%

India 56.40% 25.40% 17.20%

Germany 70.60% 28.60% 0.08%

UK 77.80% 21.40% 0.07%

Russia 58.60% 36.90% 4.50%

France 79.40% 18.80% 1.8%

Brazil 67% 27.50% 5.50%

Italy 73.40% 24.70% 2%

Mexico 62.00% 34.20% 3.80%

Indonesia 38.10% 47.20% 14.70%

Spain 71.00% 25.80% 3.20%

Canada 71.00% 27.10% 1.90%

Turkey 62.60% 28.10% 9.30%

S. Korea 58.20% 39.20% 2.60%

Australia 71.40% 24.60% 4.00%

S. Africa 65.90% 31.60% 2.50%

Taiwan 66.90% 32.00% 1.30%

Source: CIA FACTBOOK 2012

20

World Foreign Debt or Asiel ahead of developed countries :

World foreign debt crisis that begin from 1995 is ashiel ahead of developed

country in compare with emerging countries that allows China be main owner

of International market!

Table (13)- Comparison total Debt 2011

Country % government

Debt to GDP

% Foreign

Debt to GDP

Foreign Debt

per head

Total Foreign

Debt

$Bln-USD

USA 58.5 99 47,568 15,570

EU 61 85 27,862 13,720

UK 76.5 360 143,009 8,989

Germany 78.8 142 57,755 4,713

France 83.5 182 74,619 4,696

Japan 225 45 19,148 2,441

Ireland 123 1,165 519,070 2,378

Netherland 64.5 344 226,503 2,344

Italy 118 108 36,841 2,223

Spain 63.4 154 47,069 2,166

Luxembourg 19.2 3,443 3,696,467 1,892

Belgium 98.6 266 113,603 1,241

Swiss 38.2 229 154,063 1,200

Australia 70.4 95 53,596 1,169

Canada 84 64 29,625 1,009

Sweden 40.8 187 91,487 853

Norway 47.7 141 131,220 643

China 43.5 5 396 697

Danish 46.6 180 101,084 559

Greece 144 174 47,636 532

Portugal 83.5 217 46,795 497

Russian 138 33 3,421 480

Finland 45.5 155 68,960 370

S. Korea 20.3 37 7,567 370

Brazil 60.8 15 1,608 310

India 55.9 21 237 267

Turkey 48.1 36 3,794 270

Mexico 41.5 20 1,956 212

21

Table (14) -Owner of US Government Bond

Country 2011 2012

China 28.20% 23%

Japan 19% 21.40%

Oil Exporter 5.20% 5.10%

Central Caribbean Banks 3.80% 4.50%

Other Creditors 43.80% 46.50%

Total foreign Debt -$Bln 4,666 5,048

22

Table (15)- Foreign holdings of U.S. securities, by country and type of security, for the major investing countries into the U.S., as of June 30, 2011-$BlnUSD- Source Treasury 2012

Rank Country Total Equities ABC-Long term Debt Other-Long term Debt Short term debt

1 China (Mainland)1 1,727 159 220 1,343 5

2 Japan 1,587 304 165 1,052 67

3 United Kingdom 982 442 53 471 16

4 Cayman Islands 928 433 131 284 80

5 Luxembourg 817 291 50 407 69

6 Canada 560 416 10 121 13

7 Switzerland 488 227 24 222 16

8 Middle East Oil Exporters2 446 214 13 137 82

9 Belgium 443 25 36 376 6

10 Ireland 407 105 47 139 115

11 Hong Kong 292 44 101 82 66

12 Bermuda 275 62 49 136 28

13 Netherlands 260 165 22 67 5

14 France 249 141 16 78 14

15 Germany 238 81 38 112 7

16 Taiwan 232 16 39 175 3

17 Brazil 221 2 * 214 5

18 Singapore 212 107 3 95 7

19 Norway 181 124 12 44 1

20 Australia 161 106 5 44 7

21 Russia 154 * * 138 16

22 Korea, South 133 20 42 66 5

23 Sweden 108 65 1 40 2

24 British Virgin Islands 107 61 4 25 17

25 Mexico 97 25 1 68 3

26 Country unknown 138 2 * 136 1

27 Rest of World 1,074 270 59 520 225

Total 12,520 3,906 1,141 6,593 881

1- Excludes Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan, which are reported separately.

2- Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates

23

World Foreign Exchange Reserve :

It is certainly economic situation of the countries those have more much foreign

exchange reserve is more stable than other countries in financial crisis .Table

(16) explain the china is the most rich country with foreign exchange reserve

that if adding Hong Kong to China reserve the total reserve of China will be

more than $ Bln.USD 3,531 that is more than total foreign exchange of G-7 plus

USA and Japan !!

Table (16) –Countries with more than $ Bln.USD Foreign Exchange

Reserve 2011

Rank Country $Bln.USD Rank Country $Bln.USD

1 China 3,240 11 Algeria 186

2 Japan 1,270 12 Italy 173

3 Saudi Arabia 592 13 Thailand 172

4 Russia 514 14 France 171

5 Taiwan 391 15 Mexico 159

6 Swiss 383 16 USA 150

7 Hong Kong 291 17 UK 128

8 India 286 18 Iran 110

9 Germany 293 19 Indonesia 106

10 Singapore 237 20 Poland 101

Source: Wikipedia

How is the world weight of US, Europe and China

US were the leader of world economy after second world war and Europe has

for a long term lagged behind US and most other countries in grow . We

compare main economic indicator of US, Europe Union and China to find what

will happen in future!

24

Table (17)- Comparison important Indicator Economic 2011

Indicator USA China European Union

Area- Sq.Km 9,372,610 9,560,900 2,573,704

Population-M 308 1,336 318

GDP-$Bln-US 14,094 5,878 14.82

Average GDP grow 2005-2009 0.01 0.11 0.8

Energy consumer2009 2,339 1,955 1,226

Average inflation Rate 2005-2009 2.2 5.4 1.6

Inflation rate %-2010 1.6 3.3 1.9

Life expectancy 78.37 74 79.5

GDP per head-$USD 47,200 7,500 30,080

%Unemployment 9.3 6.5 9.4

Export ( Goods& Services $Bln-USD 14,660 7,058 17,210

Balance Account -$ Bln-USD (836) 286 57

current account Balance-$Bln-USD (706) 426 (65)

Overall Balance$ Bln-USD 52 419 19

Health Spending to GDP % 16.2 4.6 10.7

No. Household M 118.5 389 131

Education Spending to GDP % 5.5 2.1 4.9

Computer per 100 population 83 25 66

By: Dayarayan;Source: Pocket World in Figures 2012 & CIA Fact Book 2012

Why the US Will Still is the Only Superpower in 2030 ?!

A point that many bring up is that empires have always risen and fallen

throughout history. This is partly true, but note that the Roman Empire lasted

for over 1000 years after its peak. Also note that the British Empire never

actually collapsed since Britain is still one of the top seven countries in the

world today, and the English language is the most widely spoken in the world.

Britain was merely surpassed by its descendant, with whom it shares a

symbiotic relationship. The US can expect the same if it is finally surpassed, at

some point much later than 2030 and probably not before the Technological

Singularity, which would make the debate moot.

That writing this article is even worthwhile is a tribute to how far China has

come and how much it might achieve, but nonetheless, there is no other country

that will be a superpower on par with the US by 2030. This is one of the safest

predictions The Futurist can make.

(Source: ttp://futurist.typepad.com/my_weblog/2006/05/why_the_us_will.html)

We think all economists and projection forget a very important case to their

projection .It is merging and united two Korean that we believe before 2020 it

will be certainly and this matter will take over Korea economic to be member of

top 10 largest economy .It will be certainly.

25

Golden man Sache Bank as one of the most famous financial entity has

projected world in future that you can see their projection in below table.

Table(18)- Nominal Gross Domestic Product 2015-2050

(In 2006 US$ millions)

Rank Country 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

1 USA 16,194 17,978 20,087 22,817 26,097 29,823 33,904 38,514

2 China 8,133 12,630 18,437 25,610 34,348 45,022 57,310 70,710

3 Japan 4,861 5,224 5,570 5,814 5,886 6,042 6,300 6,677

4 Germany 3,326 3,519 3,631 3,761 4,048 4,388 4,714 5,024

5 UK 2,835 3,101 3,333 3,595 3,937 4,344 4,744 5,133

6 France 2,577 2,815 3,055 3,306 3,567 3,892 4,227 4,592

7 Italy 2,072 2,224 2,326 2,391 2,444 2,559 2,737 2,950

8 Canada 1,950 2,190 2,376 2,589 2,700 2,910 3,150 3,375

9 Russia 1,900 2,554 3,341 4,265 5,265 6,320 7,420 8,580

10 India 1,900 2,848 4,316 6,885 11,514 16,510 25,278 37,668

11 Brazil 1,720 2,194 2,831 3,720 4,963 6,631 8,740 11,366

12 Mexico 1,327 1,742 2,303 3,068 4,102 5,471 7,204 9,340

13 S. Korea 1,305 1,508 1,861 2,241 2,644 3,089 3,562 4,083

14 Turkey 1,150 1,350 1,665 2,150 2,550 3,075 3,650 4,200

15 Indonesia 562 752 1,033 1,479 2,192 3,286 4,846 7,010

16 Iran 415 544 716 953 1,273 1,673 2,133 2,663

17 Nigeria 218 306 445 680 1,083 1,765 2,870 4,640

18 Philippines 215 289 400 582 882 1,353 2,040 3,010

19 Pakistan 206 268 359 497 709 1,026 1,472 2,085

20 Egypt 171 229 318 467 718 1,124 1,728 2,602

21 Vietnam 157 273 458 745 1,169 1,750 2,500 3,375

22 Bangladesh 110 150 210 304 451 676 1,001 1,466

Source: Above table estimated have been made in the year 2006 by the Goldman Sachs Bank.

26

Gross Demotic Product By Nominal scale or by PPP ? As our previous explanation that GDP by PPP is not a reasonable index to

compare world economy so we arrange table (19) to find and compare GDP by

nominal ( Real power) and PPP ( Parity Power).According to this table the only

country that is real competitor with US is China and India, Brazil and Russian

can’t be real player in world economic at present !

Table (19)- Comparison GDP based on Official and PPP Country 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2017

GDP Nominal Nominal Nominal Nominal Nominal Nominal Nominal Nominal

GDP PPP PPP PPP PPP PPP PPP PPP PPP

USA 5,800 7,414 9,951 12,623 14,526 15,609 17,783 19,704

5,800 7,414 9,951 12,623 14,526 15,609 17,783 19,704

China 390 728 1198 2257 5930 7991 10581 12713

910 1832 3014 5364 10128 12387 16670 20336

India 323 365 476 809 1597 1779 2384 2906

744 1073 1572 2431 4070 4825 6276 7574

Japan 3104 5334 4731 4571 5488 5981 6372 6695

2370 2872 3255 3890 4380 4589 5024 5324

Germany 1547 2535 1892 2771 3286 3479 3741 3893

1447 1799 2144 2492 3944 3158 3440 3655

France 1247 1571 1232 2138 2563 2712 2984 3198

1031 1233 1534 1860 2135 2257 2476 2668

UK 1018 1157 1480 2283 2263 2453 2850 3167

933 1143 1487 1933 2199 2308 2594 2838

Russia 76 313 259 763 1487 2022 2658 3105

913 952 1121 1697 2237 2511 2950 3295

Italy 1142 1133 1107 1789 2060 2067 2158 2248

976 1175 1404 1642 1800 1835 1944 2062

Canada 582 590 725 1134 1577 1805 2001 2141

542 667 889 1132 1334 1443 1618 1753

Brazil 465 770 644 882 2143 2450 2872 3268

786 1028 1234 1585 2187 2394 2826 3171

Mexico 288 335 672 848 1035 1207 1416 1567

612 752 1065 1297 1565 1743 2028 2242

Korea 270 531 533 845 1015 1163 1430 1645

336 554 775 1097 1468 1630 1918 2148

Indonesia 114 202 165 286 708 928 1394 1812

277 447 501 705 1035 1208 1542 1829

Spain 521 597 582 1132 1395 1397 1501 1590

551 667 900 1184 1374 1405 1514 1626

Turkey 202 227 266 482 735 817 1044 1258

291 385 513 747 969 1112 1303 1477

Iran 85 91 96 203 419 496 582 668

247 330 438 685 951 1006 1106 1192

EU 7049 9188 8504 13773 16259 17070 18782 20095

6707 8388 10539 13078 15248 16025 17652 19065

By: Dayarayan;-Source- World Economic Outlook April 2012

27

Top Largest Nominal Economy in 2011

Table (20) shows which economy were largest in 2011 by different data statics

as IMF and World Bank.

Table (20)- Top 20 Largest Nominal GDP 2011

Country IMF World Bank CIA Fact Book

World 69,659 63,123 70,160

European Union 17,577 16,122 17,720

USA 15,094 14,586 15,060

China 7,298 5,926 6,989

Japan 5,869 5,458 5,855

Germany 3,577 3,280 3,629

France 2,776 2,560 2,808

Brazil 2,492 2,087 2,518

UK 2,417 2,261 2,481

Italy 2,198 2,060 2,246

Russia 1,850 1,480 1,791

Canada 1,736 1,577 1,759

India 1,676 1,727 1,843

Spain 1,493 1,407 1,537

Australia 1,488 1,131 1,507

Mexico 1,154 1,035 1,185

Korea 1,116 1,014 1,164

Indonesia 845 706 834

Netherland 840 779 858

Turkey 778 734 763

Swiss 636 527 666

Saudi 577 434 560

28

Table (21)- Top Largest Economy 1980-2015

Year 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th

2015 (IMF Forecast) USA China India Japan Germany Russia Brazil UK France Mexico

17,784 16,670 6,276 5,024 3,440 2,950 2,826 2,594 2,476 2,029

2010 USA China Japan India Germany Russia UK Brazil France Italy

14,527 10,128 4,380 4,070 2,944 2,237 2,199 2,187 2,135 1,801

2005 USA China Japan Germany India UK France Russia Italy Brazil

12,609 5,364 3,873 2,549 2,476 1,952 1,869 1,697 1,642 1,584

2000 USA Japan China Germany India France UK Italy Brazil Russia

10,011 3,252 2,981 2,137 1,579 1,546 1,524 1,422 1,211 1,047

1995 USA Japan China Germany France UK Italy India Brazil Russia

7,376 2,835 1,812 1,810 1,216 1,175 1,156 1,086 1,015 888

1990 USA Japan Germany Russia France Italy UK China Brazil India

5,753 2,340 1,455 1,183 1,018 977 939 908 768 751

1985 USA Japan W. Germany France Italy UK Brazil China India Mexico

4,193 1,561 1,050 737 717 680 585 530 482 419

1980 USA Japan W. Germany France Italy UK Brazil Mexico India Spain

2,772 980 763 531 514 475 424 297 291 272

29

Table (22)- Largest Economy Projection by IMF 2010-2030

Source: IMF Standard chartered Research

Rank Country 2010-$1000Bln Rank Country 2020-$1000Bln Rank Country 2030-$1000Bln

1 USA 14.6 1 China 24.6 1 China 73.5

2 China 5.9 2 USA 23.3 2 USA 38.2

3 Japan 3.6 3 India 9.6 3 India 30.3

4 Germany 3.3 4 Japan 6 4 Brazil 12.2

5 France 2.6 5 Brazil 5.1 5 Indonesia 9.3

6 UK 2.3 6 Germany 5 6 Japan 8.4

7 Italy 2.4 7 France 3.9 7 Germany 8.2

8 Brazil 2 8 Russia 3.5 8 Mexico 6.6

9 Canada 1.6 9 UK 3.4 9 France 6.4

10 Russia 1.5 10 Indonesia 3.2 10 UK 5.6

30

Which Countries spent more on Health Expenditures to GDP

One of the other indicator has forgoten to economics report is Health

Expenditures to GDP that shows which countries repect to manpower more and

in spite that manpower( Human resource) is the most important resources in

world economic competitore so we will find it is a long distance between

emerging economic and developed ceonomic and health care related to

countries those capital per head is bigger than others, expend health care more

than others.

Table (23) -Health Care indicators at Top 18 Economy2011

Country %GDP PCTE (*)-$Bln-

USD

PCTE-

PPP(**)

$Bln-USD

USA 16.2 7,410 7,410

France 11.7 3,934 4,798

Germany 11.4 4,129 4,629

Canada 10.5 4,198 4,380

Spain 9.7 3,152 3,076

Italy 9.5 3,027 3,328

Argentina 9.5 1,387 1,424

UK 9.4 3,285 3,395

Brazil 9 943 743

Australia 8.5 3,382 2,711

South Africa 8.5 862 485

Japan 8.3 2,713 3,321

Turkey 6.7 965 571

S. Korea 8.5 862 485

Mexico 6.5 862 525

Russia 5.4 1,038 475

China 4.6 308 169

India 4.2 132 45

Indonesia 24 99 55

* Per Capital total expenditures on health average exchange rate ($US) ** Per Capital total expenditures on health at Purchase Power Parity(PPP)

31

Table(24)- Top Languages by percentage OG GWP

Rank Language GDP

% of GWP Cumulative

(in $US Billions) % of GWP

1 English $21,276 34.90% 34.90%

2 Japanese $4,911 8.10% 43.00%

3 Simplified Chinese $4,509 7.40% 50.40%

4 German $4,393 7.20% 57.60%

5 Spanish $4,170 6.80% 64.50%

6 French $3,951 6.50% 71.00%

7 Italian $2,481 4.10% 75.00%

8 Russian $2,245 3.70% 78.70%

9 Portuguese $1,915 3.10% 81.90%

10 Arabic $1,903 3.10% 85.00%

11 Dutch $1,386 2.30% 87.30%

12 Korean $929 1.50% 88.80%

13 Turkish $730 1.20% 90.00%

14 Traditional Chinese $607 1.00% 91.00%

15 Polish $528 0.90% 91.80%

Source: www.globalization-group.com/edge/2010/03/top-languages-by-gdp

Democrassy Ranking

According to report publishing bu world audit organization the democrassy

ranking includes democrassy, press freedom and corruption grow up in 2011

and unfortunitly some of top world economy are in the top rank of corrupt.Table

(25) shows their situation ranking Table (25) World Top economy democrassy ranking 2011

Country Democracy Press Freedom Corruption Total

US 13 10 18 13

China 121 139 56 121

Japan 29 19 11 29

India 49 46 75 49

Germany 10 10 11 10

France 16 24 19 16

Italy 35 44 51 35

UK 13 16 13 13

Brazil 50 56 54 50

Russia 133 129 113 133

Canada 8 16 10 8

Spain 21 24 23 21

Mexico 69 99 77 69

S. Korea 33 40 31 33

Turkey 55 75 44 55

Indonesia 64 71 77 64

Source: world audit organization

32

According to above research and explanation and all tables ,we propose for

projection that who will be top Largest economy and compare world economy

should comply several different indicators as GDP nominal, education level,

annual innovation & patients, Military power, Area, Population, access to water

clean, natural resources that we arrange in below table.

33

Table (26)- Score for Elements & factors to be super power

Total Population Health care Education

1000 200 100 100

Area Military Water access

Natural

Resources

100 150 100 250

We, with attention table number (26) and comply necessary factors for super power ,project that the only countries to have

capacity, ability, infrastructure to be economy super power are USA, China and Russia and other emerging or developed

countries can’t not to be super power inspite that they are large economy !!Table (27) shows Top 15 Military Power in 2012

Table (27) - Top 15 Military Power 2012

Rank Country

1 USA

2 Russia

3 China

4 India

5 UK

6 Turkey

7 S. Korae

8 France

9 Japan

10 Israel

11 Brazil

12 Iran

13 Germany

14 Taiwan

15 Pakistan

Source: www.globalfirepower.com

34

Knowledge Economy Index (KEI) 2012 Rankings The World Bank’s Knowledge Assessment Methodology (KAM:www.worldbank.org/kam) is an online interactive tool that produces the

Knowledge Economy Index (KEI)–an aggregate index representing a country’s or region’s overall preparedness to compete

in the Knowledge Economy (KE). The KEI is based on a simple average of four sub-indexes, which represent the four

pillars of the knowledge economy:

Economic Incentive and Institutional Regime (EIR)

Innovation and Technological Adoption

Education and Training

Information and Communications Technologies (ICT) Infrastructure

The EIR comprises incentives that promote the efficient use of existing and new knowledge and the flourishing of

entrepreneurship. An efficient innovation system made up of firms, research centers, universities, think tanks, consultants,

and other organizations can tap into the growing stock of global knowledge, adapt it to local needs, and create new

technological solutions. An educated and appropriately trained population is capable of creating, sharing, and using

knowledge. A modern and accessible ICT infrastructure serves to facilitate the effective communication, dissemination, and

processing of information. This index shows which countries( 145 countries survey) are high teck and knowledge base and

we understand it is very different between developed countries specially European countries in compare with emerging

economy (except South Korea) .

Table (28 )-Top Largest economy in knowledge economy index 2012

Country Rank Knowledge Economy

index

Canada 7 8.92

Germany 8 8.9

USA 12 8.77

UK 14 8.76

Spain 21 8.35

Japan 22 8.28

35

France 24 8.21

S. Korea 29 7.97

Italy 30 7.89

Russian 55 5.78

Brazil 60 5.58

Turkey 69 5.16

Mexico 72 5.07

Indonesia 108 3.11

India 110 3.06

Source: World bank

In the other hand according to brandirectory.com annual report 2012 ,top 16 brands as all World Top 20 Brands are belongs

to US, and other remind are belong to UK( 2 brand ) ,Japan (2 Brand) ,South Korea ( one brand ) and Netherland (one

Brand) and emerging economy and other all countries has not any world or global brand in first 20 ranks.

Table (29) – Global Top 20 Brands Rank & Brand Value 2011-2012

2012 2011 Name Country $ M-USD $M-USD

2012 2011 1 8 Apple US 70605 29543

2 1 Google US 47463 44294

3 2 Microsoft US 45812 42805

4 4 IBM US 39135 36157

5 3 Wal-Mart US 38320 362203

6 18 Samsung Korea 38197 21511

7 7 GE US 33214 30504

8 16 Coca-Cola US 31082 25807

9 5 Vodafone UK 30044 30674

10 32 Amazon.com US 28665 17780

11 10 AT&T US 28379 28884

12 12 Verizon US 27616 27293

13 11 HSBC UK 27597 27632

36

14 13 NTT Group Japan 26324 26927

15 14 Toyota Japan 24461 26152

16 9 Wells Fargo US 23229 28944

17 6 Bank of America US 22910 30619

18 17 McDonald's US 22230 21842

19 30 Shell Netherland 22021 18605

20 27 Intel US 21908 19708

Big Companies; Big Government !!

The below table shows income per second of 15 world largest tellecominication in 2013

Table (30) Income per second

Intel Amazon Microsoft IBM HP Faxconn Apple samsung

1628 1996 2331 3166 3459 3815 4540 6486

XXXXXXX BalchBery facebook Nokia Oracle CisCo Dell Google

XXXXXXX 205 230 941 1068 1594 1865 1873

37

World Economic Trends 2011-2060

According to all elements and factors be effected to economy we projected table

(30) for trends to 2060.

38

Table (31) – Top 15 Largest Economy $Bln.USD 2015-2060 –Projection by Dayarayan

Rank Country 2060 2055 2050 2045 2040 2035 2030 2025 2020 2015 2011 Ave. Grow Rate

1 China 88,068 77,840 65,540 53,354 43,853 36,044 29,626 23,774 18,628 14,253 11,290 6-8%

2 USA 59,325 55,069 48,437 40,783 35,180 30,943 26,692 22,749 19,434 16,928 15,040 2.5-3.5%

3 India 45,245 40,780 34,170 27,422 22,005 16,917 13,575 10,637 8,108 5,781 4,463 6-8%

4 Brazil 20,864 16,348 12,871 10,182 8,132 6,526 5,114 4,065 3,247 2,669 2282 4-5%

5 Russian 15,033 12,064 9,681 7,957 7,360 6,050 4,973 4,088 3,360 2,763 2,380 3.8-4.5%

6 Germany 12,624 10,890 9,348 8,025 6,923 5,972 5,388 4,928 4,508 3,214 3,085 1.3-2.1%

7 Japan 11,287 10,223 9,260 8,823 8,387 7,597 7,019 6,389 5,873 4,570 4,389 1.2-2%

8 Mexico 11,203 8,990 7,248 5,901 4,827 3,968 3,277 2,720 2,268 1,901 1,657 3.5-4.5%

9 S. Korea 10,742 8,620 6,951 5,632 4,585 3,751 3,083 2,559 2,134 1,797 1,549 3.5-4.5%

10 Indonesia 9567 8,873 6,953 5,448 4,269 3,361 2,646 2,103 1,672 1,336 1,121 4.5-5%

11 Turkey 7,512 6,028 4,861 3,920 3,176 2,586 2,116 1,740 1,430 1,176 1,025 3.5-4.5%

12 France 5,800 5,127 4,554 4,065 3,646 3,287 2,978 2,711 2,480 2,303 2,214 1-2.5%

13 UK 5,334 4,761 4,271 3,839 3,461 3,135 2,868 2,650 2,484 2,341 2,250 1-2.3%

14 Italy 3,757 3,387 3,083 2,847 2,643 2,430 2,266 2,125 2,002 1,895 1,822 1-2.1%

15 Canada 3,756 3,386 3,052 2,751 2,480 2,235 2,025 1,821 1,650 1,497 1,389 1.9-2.1%

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Table (32) – Top 10 Largest GDP Nominal 2010- 2060

Rank Country 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

1 China 1078 2998 7070 14312 26439 44453

2 USA 9825 13271 16415 20833 27229 35165

3 India 469 929 2104 4935 12367 27803

4 Japan 4176 4601 5221 5810 6039 6673

5 Brazil 762 668 1333 2189 3740 6074

6 Russia 391 847 1741 2980 4467 5870

7 UK 1437 1876 2285 2649 3201 3782

8 Germany 1875 2212 2524 2697 3147 3603

9 France 1311 1622 1930 2267 2668 3148

10 Italy 1078 1337 1553 1671 1788 2061

* EU 9395 12965 16861 21075 28323 35288

Table (33) – Comparison Economic Group 2010-2016

Year BRIC NAFTA European Union G-7

2010 11,157 17,138 16,259 22,650

2015 25,736 20,326 18,782 32,753

2020 33,343 23,352 21,387 38,431

2030 53,288 31,994 26,455 49,236

2040 81,350 42,497 33,210 62,720

2050 122,262 58,737 41,484 92,843

2060 169,120 102,747 51,570 101,884

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BRIC = Brazil/Russia/India/China and NAFTA -NAFTA=USA/Canada/Mexico

G-7= USA,UK,France, Germany, Italy, Canada ,Japan

We arranged special comparison table from world forecaster about world economy 2050 as table (28) to can compare correctly all top 10 largest GDP

Table (34) - Comparison Nominal GDP of G-7 and E-7 in 2011

G-7 $ Million E-7 $ Million

United

States 15065 China 11316

Japan 4396 India 4470

Germany 3089 Russia 2376

United Kingdom

2254 Brazil 2309

France 2217 Mexico 1659

Italy 1829 Indonesia 1123

Canada 1391 Turkey 1055

% of

World

Total

38.40% 30.80%

* Purchasing power parity, billions of USD- Source-IMF G-7 includes US, Japan, Germany, France, UK, Italy and Canada and E-7 Includes China, India, Russia, Brazil, Mexic,Indonesia and Turkey

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Country 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2030 2050

World 79,345,677 83,193,418 86,698,366 91,233,783 96,752,504 102,739,352 109,133,822 115,926,936 145,786,987 223,654,768

EU 15,770,147 15,993,421 16,213,644 16,684,338 17,297,668 17,966,731 18,672,700 19,416,727 16,415,000 28,323,000

USA 15,533,825 16,244,575 16,724,272 17,437,856 18,390,900 19,424,983 20,493,080 21,556,047 23,376,000 37,998,000

Japan 4,410,642 4,575,530 4,728,865 4,866,042 5,021,990 5,186,019 5,353,089 5,523,226 5,842,000 8,065,000

Germany 3,085,362 3,167,416 3,226,627 3,325,343 3,440,437 3,558,004 3,677,464 3,798,163 4,118,000 5,822,000

UK 2,269,195 2,312,788 2,378,108 2,462,217 2,562,320 2,667,259 2,778,295 2,901,213 3,499,000 5,598,000

France 2,199,305 2,238,051 2,272,966 2,332,833 2,416,128 2,508,619 2,606,532 2,711,292 3,427,000 5,714,000

Italy 1,825,271 1,813,175 1,805,397 1,848,013 1,905,827 1,972,610 2,041,540 2,108,546 2,629,000 3,867,000

Canada 1,424,107 1,473,758 1,518,055 1,576,224 1,647,593 1,723,385 1,800,944 1,878,451 2,148,000 3,549,000

G7 30,747,707 31,825,293 32,654,290 33,848,528 35,385,195 37,040,879 38,750,944 40,476,938 45,039,000 70,613,000

China 11,189,111 12,261,274 13,374,017 14,578,977 15,923,626 17,394,233 18,990,475 20,730,037 30,634,000 53,856,000

India 4,489,290 4,715,602 4,961,712 5,302,495 5,750,467 6,249,312 6,802,615 7,409,142 13,716,000 34,704,000

Russia 2,363,179 2,486,231 2,557,647 2,677,542 2,827,978 2,987,692 3,156,105 3,333,777 5,308,000 8,013,000

Brazil 2,270,395 2,330,216 2,422,107 2,523,344 2,656,858 2,802,014 2,958,935 3,124,423 4,685,000 8,825,000

BRIC 20,311,975 21,793,323 23,315,483 25,082,358 27,158,929 29,433,251 31,908,130 34,597,379 54,343,000 105,398,000

China 11,189,111 12,261,274 13,374,017 14,578,977 15,923,626 17,394,233 18,990,475 20,730,037 30,634,000 53,856,000

Table (35)- Comparison table Economic Group 2011-2050

All informatioan about 2011 through 2018 from wikipedia and 2030 and 2050 from our sources

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India 4,489,290 4,715,602 4,961,712 5,302,495 5,750,467 6,249,312 6,802,615 7,409,142 13,716,000 34,704,000

Russia 2,363,179 2,486,231 2,557,647 2,677,542 2,827,978 2,987,692 3,156,105 3,333,777 5,308,000 8,013,000

Brazil 2,270,395 2,330,216 2,422,107 2,523,344 2,656,858 2,802,014 2,958,935 3,124,423 4,685,000 8,825,000

Mexic 1,706,074 1,798,353 1,845,248 1,931,661 2,040,222 2,160,319 2,287,630 2,422,372 3,662,000 7,409,000

Indonesia 1,113,621 1,203,634 1,284,789 1,377,639 1,490,186 1,612,375 1,744,404 1,887,112 2,078,000 3,315,000

Turkey 1,066,962 1,109,173 1,167,434 1,227,712 1,307,034 1,392,865 1,485,213 1,583,573 2,760,000 5,032,000

Group E-7 24,198,632 25,904,483 27,612,954 29,619,370 31,996,371 34,598,810 37,425,377 40,490,436 62,843,000 121,154,000

USA 15,533,825 16,244,575 16,724,272 17,437,856 18,390,900 19,424,983 20,493,080 21,556,047 23,376,000 37,998,000

Canada 1,424,107 1,473,758 1,518,055 1,576,224 1,647,593 1,723,385 1,800,944 1,878,451 2,148,000 3,549,000

Mexic 1,706,074 1,798,353 1,845,248 1,931,661 2,040,222 2,160,319 2,287,630 2,422,372 3,662,000 7,409,000

Group Nafta 18,664,006 19,516,686 20,087,575 20,945,741 22,078,715 23,308,687 24,581,654 25,856,870 29,186,000 48,956,000

Mexic 1,706,074 1,798,353 1,845,248 1,931,661 2,040,222 2,160,319 2,287,630 2,422,372 3,662,000 7,409,000

Indonesia 1,113,621 1,203,634 1,284,789 1,377,639 1,490,186 1,612,375 1,744,404 1,887,112 2,078,000 3,315,000

S.Korea 1,538,727 1,597,621 1,665,598 1,755,147 1,862,037 1,976,459 2,098,660 2,228,350 2,454,000 3,545,000

Turkey 1,066,962 1,109,173 1,167,434 1,227,712 1,307,034 1,392,865 1,485,213 1,583,573 2,760,000 5,032,000

Group MIKT 5,425,384 5,708,781 5,963,069 6,292,159 6,699,479 7,142,018 7,615,907 8,121,407 10,954,000 19,301,000

Mexic 1,706,074 1,798,353 1,845,248 1,931,661 2,040,222 2,160,319 2,287,630 2,422,372 3,662,000 7,409,000

Indonesia 1,113,621 1,203,634 1,284,789 1,377,639 1,490,186 1,612,375 1,744,404 1,887,112 2,078,000 3,315,000

Negeria 409,741 444,349 479,320 521,359 567,855 618,337 674,249 733,038 1,083,000 3,451,000

Turkey 1,066,962 1,109,173 1,167,434 1,227,712 1,307,034 1,392,865 1,485,213 1,583,573 2,760,000 5,032,000

Group MINT 4,296,398 4,555,509 4,776,791 5,058,371 5,405,297 5,783,896 6,191,496 6,626,095 9,583,000 19,207,000

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Table (36) – Comparison different forecasted world Economy in 2050 Forecaster 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th

Goldman

Sachs 2006

China USA India Japan Brazil Russia UK Germany France Italy

44,453 35,165 27,803 6,673 6,074 5,870 3,782 3,603 3,147 2,061

Goldman

Sachs 2011

China USA India Brazil Mexico Russia UK Germany France S. Korea

70,717 38,521 37,667 11,366 9,340 8,580 5,133 5,024 4,592 4,083

HSBC China USA India Japan UK Germany Brazil Mexico France Italy

24,617 22,270 8,165 6,429 3,576 3,714 2,960 2,810 2,750 2,194

PWC China USA India Brazil Japan Russia Mexico Germany UK Indonesia

51,180 37,876 31,313 9,235 7,664 6,112 5,800 5,707 5,628 5,358

CitiGroup

2011

China India USA Indonesia Nigeria Brazil Russia Japan Philippines UK

205,321 180,049 83,805 45,910 42,437 33,199 19,697 16,394 14,738 13,846

Carnegie China USA India Japan Brazil Mexico UK Germany France Turkey

46,265 38,646 15,384 6,216 6,020 5,709 4,997 4,537 4,528 3,536

Wealth

Report

India China USA Indonesia Brazil Nigeria Russia Mexico Japan Egypt

85,970 80,020 39,070 13,930 11,580 9,510 7,770 6,570 6,480 6,020

Dayarayan China USA India Brazil Russia Germany Japan Mexico Indonesia S. Korea

65,540 48,437 34,170 12,871 9,681 9,348 9,260 7,248 6,953 6,951

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Global changing ?

According to our research and attention table (33) the future global changing are

as below table . Table (37) –Future Global Economy Changing

Year GDP Ranking ( Base PPP) Estimated Changing in World Economic

2011 China the second world economic power

2011 Indonesia take over Turkey

2012 India take over Japan and become be the third world Economy

2012 Brazil take over UK

2015 Brazil will take over France

2020 United Koearn and Korea will take over France, Uk, Italy

2025 China will take over US and will be top super power

2025 Mexico will take over France, UK

2025 France Will Take Over UK

2030 Turkey will take over Canada

2030 Brazil will take over Russia

2030 S. Korae will take over Indonesia

2030 Indonesia will take over Canada ,Italy

2035 Indonesia will take over France, UK

2035 Russia will take over Germany

2035 Brazil will take over Germany

2050 Germany will take over Japan

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Conclusion and finding: 1-The world GDP from $Bln.371 (1700), $Bln.5,331 (1950) ,$Bln.16,022(1973) and $ Bln.

70177 (2011) will be jump to 350,000 in 2060

2- China economy will be eight times more than 2011in 2060 and also India economy size in

2060 will grow seven times more than 2011.

2- Bric Group ( Brazil, Russia, India, China) will be largest economic group from $

Bln.11,157 (2011) to $Bln.169,120

3-The largest GDP $Bln.15,040 ( USA) in 2011 will jump to $ Bln. 88,066 (China) in 2060

4- The largest GDP per capital was $ USD 9,757 (USA) in 1954 and will jump to $ 125,000

(USA) with 450,000000 population in 2060.

5-Larest world output will be related to emerging economy and new economy graphic BRIC,

BRICSAM (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and Mexico), SICJ( S. Korea,

Indonesia, China, Japan)

6- GDP BRIC group will grow from $ Bln.11,157 (2010) to $ Bln.33,347 (2020),

$Bln.53,2888 (2030), $Bln.122,262 (2050) and $ Bln.169,210 (2060) that will be 2.4 times

more than world GDP in 2011.

7-GDP SICJ Group (S. Korea, Indonesia, China, Japan ) will increase to $ Bln.26,603(2020)

,$Bln. 42,374 (2030),$Bln. 88,704(2050) and $ Bln. 119,664 (2060) that will be 70.7% total

GDP for BRIC in 2060.

8-United Korea will be one of the main economy players after 2020 and it will be ninth top

rank in 2060.

9-Russia economy has huge potentially but should be solve their political problem to convert

from oligarchy economy to free economy with transparency to be top fifth rank in 2060.

10- Undeveloped countries same Nigeria, Vietnam, Philipina, Iran and Egypt will be changed

and moved to second 10 largest world economy.

11- Small European countries will be loses their size and rank fret 2017.

12- Demographic population and old age will be serious problem for European Countries and

also Japan that it effect to their world rank after 2017.

13- We predict between 2025 to 2030 there will be a major overhaul of economic output and

world GDP that some large top economy, small European Countries and poor countries will

be the big losers.

14- Germany will be top European economy (G7) and also will takeover Japan in 2050 and

even sooner because Japan debt is top debt in the world

15- Despite that emerging economy will jump more than developed economy but know

economy index in emerging economy are more poor in compare with G7 and G20 and 70%

of top 20 global brand with more than brand value as # Bln.USD 460 are belong to USA.

46

Sources: 1- www.econjobrumors.com/topic/the-power-of-soviet-totalitarianism

2- www.knoema.com

3- www.rediff.com

4- Report World 2050 by HSBC

5- ReportWorld 2030-2050 by Glodman Sach

6- Wikipedia

7-Article Fall free market and rise of Controled market –By: Gholamhossein Davani –

Published in lemound Diplomatic farsi version and World Economic newspaper in Persian

2011

8- Report World in 2050 By PriceWaterHouse publication

9- Global terend 2030 – Alternative Worlds published by Sweden Embasy

10- Mapping in Global Future - Report of the National Intelligence Council’s 2020 Project

11- 2011 Annual report of World Health Organization

12-Report China 2030 By World Bank

13- CIA FACTBOOK Haard copy 2012

14- Pocket World in Figuers 2011 & 2012

15- Wealth Report 2012

16- Goldman Sachs study of BRIC and N11 nations, November 23, 2007.