RESTRICTED

Report No. EMA-1Z

iTis reporT WaS prepared Tor use within t-o B nu nd iiated organizatl0n;.

They do not accept responsibility for its accuracy or completeness. The report maynot be published nor may it be quoted as representing Their views.

INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT

INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION

THE ECONOMY

mttNTTYT AT UiNJ.lIS1

August 25, 1969

E~urope, Middle East anu

North Africa Department

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_..TyvwrA T M T-1 0CULRkREL1N LI JUX V.-%Z1.4 IO

1 dinar = 1. 905 US dollars

1 dollar 0. 525 dinars1 million dinars = 1. 905, 000 dinars1 .,illion dollarsa - 525, 000 drinar

P R E F A C E

This repwort vas prepared by an economic mission which visitedTunisia in March/April 1969. The members were:

Ernst F. Schaad (Chief of Mission)

Michael Payson (Chief economist)

Denis Mortier (General economist)

Gabriele Sciolli (Fiscal economist)

Robert Mangolini (Consultant, agricultural economist)

Louis Pouliquen (Transport economist)

Cornelis van DiJk (Education specialist)

Hans Thias (Education specialist)

David Miller (Population specialist)

Geraldine Prefontaine (Secretary)

TIM ECOOMOY OF TUNISIA

*1'An1TTt w ri nwi'vun'

UWPUt ANU-L JCOCLJUS10UPa . . . . . . 4.

1. 11ZURiDUV-u.fg- . . . . . . . . . . . . .

II. EC0NOKCntR n at nflnlfl.RRA.C 1

II. GEvM B urCTIS OF THE .WR- .R.A .99-12.

A. Totemisimn Yaiprience i i Pinning . . . . . . .B. Growth Objectivesaofthe Plan. ...... . 3C. Porpulation and Family Planning.D. Education and lpoyment . . ...... . . 6E. Structural Retoua and the Cooperative

Movement . . . . . . 9

IV. PROBLEMS AND PROPECTS OF THE PRINCIPAL SECTORS OFTUE ECONOMY ..

A. Agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . ..... iB. ManufacturingandMining .. ......... . 15Cc Transport . . . . . . . . . .. . . .1

D. Tourism . .... . .. . .. . ... .. . 19

V. DOMETIC FINACE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

A. PublicPinance *............... 21B. Money ad Credit . 26

VI. FOREIGNRAEAD PAY DP A.Y.M.T.S. . ........... 29

A. Trends of Goods and Services . .. .... . 29

B. Trade Reltions and Policies ... . . . . . 31C. Foreign Capital Inflow, Debt and Debt Service 34

VII. PROBLEMSAND PROSPECTS.... ..... .. 31

VIII. STATISTICAL APPENDIX

SIMMARY A-MD CONCLUSITRONS

1. Tunisia has enjoyed internal stability since it became independentin 1956= Cansi4der&ble effort- hae been made to transfor- a h&rkIqrd andtradition minded comunity into a mzodern, western oriented society vith the

a~4

m u.iA ~ ^ 4 agelm '~I +riy- introductio0nv of new sociZ-l -ad econo..o4 Struact-Wre%Xas in ag.cavltuwe, tradeand industry. Although much remains to be done before this objective isach w ,m su'a+bt.+ 4 l' p.vtwan has = .,aade ..made ..a4d ia appes" determinedto continue the effort.

2. The Tunisian economW grew at an average ,nnusl rate of about 5.5percen" in tbe erlJ 9yu -v . Despite bad -weather anad consequenu poor hrvests in 1967 and 1968, growth was still about 3 percent during the lastPln 196-1968). sue uei- r.LSU (19u6 1-9Y7 proposes a gruw>u %O %L 6Apercent, which appears feasibl.e. During the last Plan investments accounted.or About a querter of gros6 domestic product, and are expected to remainclose to that level during the next one. As in the past, financing invest-meants of this magnitude will remain difficult.

3. Tunisias population nas been increasing rapidly and rached estimated 4.8 million in 1968. The annual growth rate accelerated fromless than 2 percent around 1930 to about 2.3 percent around 1960 and for1968 the Annual rate of natural increase is estimated at 2.8 percent. Itis hoped that an extended effort in family planning would initiate a gradualdecline in the growth rate. The chances for successful implenentation ofsuch a program are enhanced by favorable social, religious, and governmentalconditions.

4. E;ploymnt is projected to increase at an average annual rate of2.6 percent during the 1968-1972 period, implying that 122,000 more jobswill be available by the end of the Plan. Hoaever, reliable assessments ofthe long-term demd for middle and high level mnpover which might serveas a guide for planning the specific requirements of the educational systemare not available. The targets set for the development of primary educa-tion are reasonable and those for higher education may be too modest butplans for secondary education are far more ambitious and likely to exceedeffective manpower demands.

5. In 1956 about 65 percent of the labor force was employed in agri-culture, compared with an estimated 48 percent in 1966. Agriculture's con-tribution to GDP has been decreasing from 25 percent in 1960 to some 17percent in 1968, and is planned to remain above 15 percent in 1972. Theaverage level of agricultural production is to increase by about 5 percentper year over the period of the new Four-Year Plan 1969-1972, while exportsare to grow by 5 percent and 40,000 new jobs are to be created. Total in-vestments in agriculture over the Plan period will exceed those of the previousPlan by 28 percent.

6. These targets were fixed before taking the decision to transferall agriculture into production cooperatives before the end of 1969. Theeffects of this decision on production, and on manpower and financial re-quirements could not be fully taken into account in the Plan, and cast doubton the feasibility of the targets.

7. Tunisian industrial policy during the 1960's has favored the

development of large enterprises, primarily for import substitution and

secondarily to upgrade natural resources such as phosphate rock and other

minerals. Government participation has been dominant and public enterprise

investment has accounted for some 85 percent of all investment made in man-ufacturing during the past eight years. However, cumulative gross fixed

investment in mining and manufacturing totaled D 151 million from 1960-1968whereas the increase in output in these sectors amounted to only D 30 mil-

lion during the period. Despite dominant market positions and protectionfrom import competition, profitability has been lov, and cash requirements

have had to be met directly from the Treasury, from the resources of publictrading firms, or by increased borrowing from the banking system.

8. The industrial section of the new Plan represents mainly a con-tinuation of past industrial policy including a further moderate increaseof investments. During the last Plan phosphate exports stagnated but con-tinued to provide about 10 percent of foreign exchange earnings and theGovernment hopes to develop this potential through new investment now beingundertaken, such as the substantial amounts being invested for the creationof the chemical complex and port of Gabes, a new railroad Gafsa-Gabes andnew phosphate mines. These investment decisions were taken some time ago,and are progressively being implemented although the technical and economic

studies are not yet completed and there is a great deal of uncertainty re-garding the marketing possibilities at satisfactory prices for increasedquantities of Tunisian phosphates and fertilizers. Although facilities of

the kind now being constructed may prove to be necessary in the long-run,

there are indications that some of them could have been postponed for a few

years. More recently, the Government has made increasing efforts to improve

existinR enterprises and to ensure that new projects are justified beforetaking investment decisions. This should improve progressively the produc-

tivitv of investments.

Q. In recent years newly discovered oil has contributed significantly

to foreign exchange earnings and some further moderate increase is expected9lurina the next Plan. It is tourism, however, which is the most dynamic

sector of the economy and which has become the main source of foreign ex-

change- Prnvided the substantial financina reauired is forthcoming andbarring major international upheavals, the further substantial gains plannedshola-ld not bnte d1 ffitiIt. to realize

10. Whether and to what extent produetion and investment forecasts ofthe Plan are realistic will depend to a considerable extent on a number ofeconomic po14- varia4bln in nit-h arhA crepit. nillhlr finance,- prices

and foreign economic relations. Until now, limited use has been made of in-ad,4 r ct mesu -ess to n iide productlon an-d investment. Pr ies for mrnv maiorcommodities are established on a cost plus basis without sufficient attentiontoU theA maret 3hile int.er.st r in combination with. the -e -------

of credit amounts reflect mainly the Government's priorities and bear little

or no relationship to the demand for and the supply of ^unds and capital.The Government expressed the intention to encourage gradually more realistic

pricing and capital coating, but 4rect controls by the Governent are ex=

pected to remain the principal means for implementing economic policy duringthe next four years.

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11. The new Plan and the cooperative system are looked upon as theGovernment's major instruments for bringing about economic and social devel-opment. Economic planning has received attention Bince the early 1960's.A planning office and a national planning council formulate prioritiesand general policies. The new Plan has been substantially improved comparedvith past plans in identifring and defining projects, and its implementationcan nov be folloved and adJusted throuah annual economic budgets.

12. Attempts at ortanizinr larae narts of the economv in coonerativesvere started during the Three Year Plan (1962-1964), and amplified duringthe first Four Year Plan (1965-1968) with aricultural nroduction cooDera-tives and specialized regional cooperatives for various economic activities.In Januarv 1969 the Government decided that all azrleultuxre should be in-corporated in production cooperatives before the end of the year. The newFour Year Plan (iQ6Q_-l72 also ineludlaes the -nviam d conanlidation andmerger of enterprises in agricultural procesisng, shoe and clothing menu-faetures and in other sim{lar Aetivities.

13. Althouh there ban heen some mPeRlstV nf niwonnitin to the sec4l-

erated pace of introducing cooperatives, the Government enjoys popular sup-port aind isn in a ntrong position to push aheasA _t4+h ma4ew *fr%vni- Thecooperative idea was greatly promoted at the time by the mass exodus ofFrench colons and the 8ubsequent org-n

4ma+ 40 of agrie" 1

4-tAAn nwdution

in cooperatives. It remains to be proven, however, whether this conceptcnn he beneficia -l- 1 0 4eral.Aed o-d .- lied +t the ,. ext .+ent in differ-ent circumstances. Efforts should be made to insure that the basic politicalc oice ^ 4n 4P--_ -_o of doe - pr1..ecl _ude .4-u a-14-P of _4rict

.a-a^_^; -- ^ ... wz am _,tsaswvvSG I.a w a.l- r"ww F& .4"wU ." in..r - --l C' a

economic criteria and that short-term measurable economic returns are notsacrif.Cledd Aftr "less cer-tain longf-t-ei,i dere10pwUnt- benefits.

k14. The- use of ma r-ke"t forces J- the conduct o f ------ J - po licy nee A no t0C. &L~~ LlJ . U bA .& LLLI LEA 6 1.VLLJUJUI.A VA C1 UUU WA FJ.'D.j " L

be in contradiction with the basic policies of the country. The Governmenthas accepted this View, and for the oil .ndUUstry and partic-ulurly for tourismthe boom provides ample evidence of response to the opportunities of themarket. SiMilar developments could perhaps be promoted more vigorouSAly inprivate agriculture and industry by indirect policy measures to increaseet.Liciency, enularge mairietD and impro-ve Icen"vses.

V~ ALI..~UL1 ~ULU1~ 5MLL~.,~ .UL AmLv LULI,V1

.1,. 1Difi L.ultie may be eSu-ouatere iu r'ifinancing the Prlan. Thu pro-

jected 21 percent annual growth in general government savings and the 9 per-cent grOwth in sav ings of identified enterprises rrom i969-i972 seem optim-istic in the light of past performance. Additional resources may also berequired to fIinance the nationwide reforms in the agricultural sector notexplicitly evaluated in the Plan. Public capital inflows are forecast tototal D 270 million for the Plan period compared with D 180 million duringthe past four years, depending principally on an ambitious acceleration inproject implementation and in disbursements ozi project loans. As suggestedby the IMF, short and medium-term foreign private borrowings were reducedduring the last year and will be limited during the next Plan. rhis impliesthat shortfalls in public capital inflows will require a reduction in in-vestment.

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16. For the balance of payments, the planned 6 percent growth rate in

exports from 1969 to 1972 appears achievable. Reflecting official priori-

ties. consumption imports are expected to decline from earlier levels, whileimports of intermediate goods are projected to increase considerably less

than in Dast years as a result of progress in import substituting industries.

The deficit on current account will depend to a large extent on the level

of capital goods imports. which in turn will depend largely on inflows of

foreign financial assistance.

17. Service payments on public external debt amounting to 24 percentof forei-n exchange earninas from exports of goods and services in 1968 arehigh, and it is doubtful whether the ratio can be brought below 24 percent

by 1972. The extent to vhich this will be possible in the coming yearswill depend on success in achieving export growth and also on the leveland the ter-ms and eonditions of future borroving. In view of Tunisia'slarge debt burden, these loans should be to the fullest possible extent on

concessionary terms.

INTRODUCTION

1. uni sla economy 'is tiL1L predominant±y baseu on r nOW-

ever, considerable efforts have been made in recent years to transform a back-ward and tradition-minded farming community into a modern, western-orientedsociety. New social and economic structures such as a changed pattern of landownership, cooperatives and widespread education have been introduced into themediterranean-type agriculture growing mainly cereals in the north, and morerecently to the regions producing olives along the eastern coast and to theoases of the southern desert.

2. Rapid progress has been made in the development of tourism into amajor industry along the mediterranean coast. Phosphate exports have remainedvirtually stagnant since 1964 while fertilizer exports have risen in recentyears and newly discovered oil in the desert of the extreme south has contri-buted substantially to foreign exchange earnings. Along with these develop-ments, manufacturing industries are gradually emerging.

3. Tunisia has enjoyed internal political stability since its inceptionas an independent state. The Parti Socialiste Destourien is firmly in powerand its leader, Habib Bourguiba, also the President of the Republic, has un-challenged support and popularity. However, the Government's policy of greatlyaccelerating the structural reforms in organizing the whole agricultural sec-tor and large parts of domestic trade in cooperatives on a practically com-pulsory basis has been the subject of increasing controversy in recent months.This policy has been opposed by the larger farmers, parts of the populationengaged in trade and handicraft and more generally the tradition-minded popu-lation. However, the strength of this opposition is difficult to assess,and there is no doubt that the Government is firmly in power and is thereforein a strong position to push ahead with major reforms.

II. ECONOMIC TRENDS AND PERFORMANCE

4. During the past eiRht years. within a framevork of economic plan-ning and increasingly centralized policy formulation, the Tunisian GDP grewat an average annual rate of about 4 percent. The period was characterizedby annual grovth of more than 5 percent in the early 1960's and a slowdownafter 1965, mainly due to lover agricultural output, the achievement andmaintenance of a level of investment approaching one quarter of GDP, and in-ternal and external financial difficulties.

5. From 1960-1964. with the advent of the Three Year Plan 1962-64 andowing to a rise in public capital outlays, the share of gross fixed capitalformation in total demand increased from 18 to 24 nercent. The 5.5 percentrise in real gross domestic product Was largely attributable to agriculture,and food mroeessing industries and to aetivitieR dirertly linked to theexpansion in public spending. Exports failed to grow, however, and savingsand foreiln capital inflnvm were less than antieipated- with the result thatavailable financial resources were insufficient, domestic credit was over-extendedj tnd foreign exchange reseravv were dran downw. To help restnre

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external and internal equilibrium the currency was devalued by 25 percent atthe end of 1964, and a stabilization program was introduced supported by IMFdrawings.

6. The Four Year Plan 1965-1968 proJected a 6 percent real rate ofgrowth in gross domestic product, based principally on rising output in theextractive industries, manufacturing, and building and public works, andaverage annual growth in agriculture at 3 percent. Total investment for thefour year period was expected to increase to about D 505 million in constantprices, compared with D 380 million in the preceding four year period, withlarge increases in investment in agriculture, manufacturing and transportation;and declines in housing and administrative investments.

7. Performance under the Plan was conditioned by a rise in output in1965 and a subsequent decline and stagnation in 1966 and 1967, as unfavorableweather adversely affected agricultural production, and output in mining andmanufacturing failed to achieve expected levels. The 1965 peak in productionwas accompanied by a sharp increase in investment and imports and lessergrowth in savings and exports. Foreign exchange reserves were reduced further,and there was increased recourse to foreign private borrowing. In the twosubsequent years investment was reduced somewhat below the 1965 level, butpublic consumption climbed, and the overall financial position deteriorated.

8. The last year of the Plan brought an 8 percent increase in real out-put as agricultural production recovered partially and output in mining, man-ufacturing and tourism rose. Investment declined; imports were reduced sub-stantially; and foreign exchange reserves increased for the first time insix years. Preliminary figures indicate that restraint in private consumptionand improvement in the current account deficit resulted in a 30 percent risein domestic savings and in a reduction of 50 percent in the foreign financingof gross investment. However, the Government's financial position worsened asexpenditure continued to rise, revenues stagnated. and the current surplusfell drastically.

9. For the four year period average annual growth in real termsamounted to 3 percent compared with the 6 percent Plan target. Rapid growthwas achieved in tourism and crude oil - both export industries - but outputfell below targets in manufacturing and actually declined in agrleultureDespite the shortfall in real resources total fixed investment in constantnrices was only about D 5 ° million below the D SOS million Plan ohiective.Capital outlays in agriculture and manufacturing were substantially less thanprnierted vwhile tho%te in tomrism. netrnleinn hniioing Anei the aem4nictv-atin

were considerably larger. On balance the share of available resources devotedto savinga 4neaoAed, not^wthstanding grwnth in public consumption Of 5.6 per-cent, since real private consumption rose at an annual rate of only 1.4 per-cent'. N.evert-&hel"ess, 'because Of s0hortfe-11' in the l-evel- of" savings, domesticfunds financed a lower proportion of total investment than planned; privatef0ire'ign"Dorr-otwing was increased; ar,d reser:ves decline by- D. 12mlin I durin' 6 4 .- the period. The rise in private fe br oU UA-L.nLA. UUL aLLAai

the period. The rise in private foreign borrowing caused a deterioration in

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the structure o0 t'ne foreign duebtu -uu LOi sevie pajLuns as a percent oD

current foreign exchange receipts increased from 18 percent in 1965 to 27percent in 1o68.

III. GENERAL OBJECTIVES OF THE FOUR-YEAR PLAN 1969-19T2

A. Tunisian Experience in Planning

10. Economic planning received early attention in the new state. Aplanning office was established in 1956 and a National Planning Council wascreated in 1957 to determine priorities and general policies in economic plan-ning. Up to 1960 planning consisted mainly in the Planning Office's prepara-tion of the Government's capital budget. A major and decisive step rorwardwas made in 1961 when the Planning Office and the Ministries of Finance, Agri-culture, Industry and Commerce were integrated into a new Ministry of Planningand Finance. A long-range strategy of economic and social development was setout in a ten-year program which has since formed the basis for the subsequenteconomic policies.

11. Among the basic objectives going beyond the general purposes ofeconomic development have been the Tunisification of the economy, and ofgrowing importance more recently, the adaptation of the Tunisian society andnation to present day requirements by far-reaching structural reforms. Afirst attempt to implement these basic principles was the Three-Year Plan1962-1964. It was also designed to prepare the ground for the subsequent,more refined Four-Year Plan for 1965-1968.

12. The new Four-Year Plan (1969-1972) underwent substantial furtherrefinements and it is now looked upon as the Government's major instrumentfor bringing'about economic and social development. The methodology and pre-sentation of the Plan have been further developed and planning is nov formu-lated within the framework of the annual economic budgets and total invest-ment has been itemized project by project, thus facilitating greatly theadaptation of Plan implementation to changing circumstances. The evaluationof short-term developments is facilitated by monthly economic indicators.

B. Grovth Objectives of the Plan

13. The target rate of growth of 6.1 percent in gross domestic productat factor cost is twice that achieved during the last planning period andsomewhat above earlier trends. Output in agriculture, starting from a lowinitial year, is expected to rise at about 5 percent Per year, its share de-clining from 17 percent to 15 percent of GDP. Projected growth in mining andmanufacturing industries at 9 percent and 7.5 percent is substantially higherthan in the past and depends largely on the solution of foreign and domesticmarketing nroblems and greater utilization of existing capacity. In these

sectors planned investment is dominated from 1970 onward by outlays,in largePnternrisesa nnmnted by the Government nsarticularlv in nhosnhatea and mineral-based chemicals, but the direct effect on production is not expected to be

-4-

significant until 1972 and after. Output in tourism is projected to rise by16 percent per year, a conservative estimate by recent standards, while growthin other sectors is projected to be less than or equal to the overall average.

STRUCTURE OF RESOURCES AND USES

(Average amounts as percent of average GDP)

Actual First Plan Actual Second Plan1961-1964 1965-1968 1965-1968 1969-1972

Private Consumption 73.3 68.1 67.2 63.9Public Consumption 16.1 17.9 18.1 18.7Gross Investment 21.2 21.5 24.3 22.8ExDorts 19.2 19.5 21.8 23 2Imports -29.8 -27.0 -31.5 -28.7

GDP at current marketnriees 10.0 100l 0 100.0 100.0

Domestic saving 10.6 14.0 14=7 17.4National saving 9.6 N.A. 11.8 14.4

14. In current prices planned fixed investment for the period is aboutD 110 million hi4her than the D 505 -i1lion realized over the four precedingyears, implying a real rate of grovth of 8.5 percent per year from 1968-1972And uan aver-ge share of 23 percent in gross domestic product. Investment bythe Government and public enterprises is planned to account for about three-ii.rt-er, Of the total-, while coo1_rative, household, and private e,.terpriseinvestment is expected to account for the remainder. Projected generalgovernment outlas4 are hi-hesa+ in ai,4 tstae, educat4n nd trasportti.-Lon,and public enterprise investment is concentrated in mining, manuracturingana transaortation. Coopera4tivw 4invstrm.t 4s Ad 4nant 4n agric.lture, ar,d.<* ve inv _.. ~.AJ_O .L.J *L *LU. UJC1 .J

projected private enterprise investment is largely confined to tourism andpetrolem Aevelopnt.

15. For the rlrst time the Plan has endeavored to allocate 'ivestmentwithin sectors to projects, based initially on an evaluation of their balanceof payments, net output, and employment eects. Mle recurrent expenditureeffects of Government projects were also evaluated more carefully than inpast years 3though underestimates are likely, particularly in education.

16. Based on Plan projections the aggregate incremental capital outputratio excluding agriculture and public services would decline from an averageof about 5.0 in the preceding eight years to about 4.2 during the Plan period.To some extent this is due to the abnormally low level of production in 1967,and a decline in investment in 1968, but on balance an improvement in capitalproductivity is foreseen. Nevertheless, even on Plan estimates Tunisiawould continue to have an unusually high capital output ratio in comparisonwith most other countries.

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17. Investment and export of toods and services are Drolected to be theleading demand factors, rising at about 8.5 percent in real terms per year,while both Dublic and nrivate consumption voulti inrearae at slichtly less than6 percent. The slow relative rise in consumption is expected to permit acumulative inereaRe in domAntie tAav1EnR fn about 50 pnrent f,.nm 11;IQ72providing an amount equivalent to 80 percent of the finance of gross investmentin the lAt vesr nf thp Plan, NeVerthu.hS% 1afer allowing for a 'ri a in dhbt

service payments from D 35 million in 1968 to D 42 million in 1972, and pro-viding for an ine-1eree in n.et r-eeve-v of D 31 m4vllie, ors8 eapnn4l inflr%w

required to finance the Plan are projected to amount to D 360 million, comparedPithte pts Of _bout n 323 n4 ', 195198

18. ~T.i. -vp"lton -0 "an8a Luzas been increasing rapiduly- andCI reachedan estimated 4.8 million in 1968. Its annual intercenssl grovth rate accel-er-ated fzrom J1.9 percer.t bet-ee -3t and136 vo c.3 peren bete 19, and

1966. The non-Tunisian population decreased betveen 1956 sand 1966, and thenaSion'L part grew at about c.5 perceUt per year. Based on the prelminauryresults of a National Demographic Survey carried out in 1968 and 1969, theannual rate of natural increase i8 estimated at approximately 2.8 percent for1968 with an indicated birth rate of 45 per thousand and a death rate of 17per thousand. Earlier estimates had indicated the same rate of growth butbased on a birth rate estimate of 40 per thousand and a death rate estimateof 12 per thousand. Emigration oI nationals has not played an important partin the past and is not expected to do so in the future. At the time of the1UV census 46.3 percent of the population were under fifteen years of ageand 3.5 percent of the population were sixty-five years or older. This impliesa ratio of almost one to one between population of the active and inactive age.

i9. Tnree projections or population growth between 1966 and 1986 havebeen presented in the Development Plan. Each alternative assumes the samereduction in mortality of approximately 5 per thousand over the 20 years, acontinuation of the present growth rate up to 1972 and a mid-year populationthat year of 5.4 million. Tne first alternative assumes a continuation ofthe 1966 birth rate through 1986, the second assumes a reduction in the birthrate over the full period of 14 per thousand. The third assumption would im-ply by 1986 a reduction in the birth rate to about 30 per thousand, and anatural rate of growth to 2.0 percent per snnum with a resultant populationat that time of 7.3 million.

20. This assumes reasonable success of an expanded effort in familyplanning i.e. an average annual increase of one percent in the number ofcouples in the fertile age group practicing family planning. It is estimatedthat by the end of 1968, 3.5 percent of these couples were practicing familyplanning and that the number could increase to 21.7 percent by 1986. A re-duction in the birth rate of the magnitude required would be greater than thepresent expectation of Ministry of Health but it would be in line with theincreased participation of Tunisians in family planning observed during thelast four years.

21. Government forecasts for the Plan period based on population move-ments between the 1956 and 1966 census indicate that the population is grow-ing fastest in the smaller urban areas (5.0 percent), less in the large cities(4.0 percent), and slowest in the rural areas (1.55 percent) compared with theestimated overall growth rate of 2.8 percent up to 1972. Since the naturalgrowth rates in rural areas of about 3.0 percent per annum will remain higherthan in urban areas, it is expected that approximately 250,000 persons willmigrate from rural to urban areas during the Plan period.

22. The initial success of a family planning pilot program begun in 1962led subsequently to an expanded program, which, however, was not successfuldue to poor organization and insufficient public education. But with the in-creasing recognition of the need to provide family planning facilities andservices, a reorganized effort was made in 1968 by the Ministry of Health withthe assistance of various external agencies. This program stresses the edu-cation and motivation aspects, in contrast to the previous program, and isalso providing a full range of contraceptive methods.

23. It would appear that chances for successful implementation of afamily planning program in Tunisia are good. Favorable preconditions are thesocial, religious and governmental environment. In addition, the Governmenthas already introduced a number of measures favoring family planning ingeneral. Amona them are the possibility to have a social abortion after fourchildren. However, considering these factors and the technical assistancenrovided to the Tunisian authorities, progress so far anpears to have beenslow.

24. The major difficulty in reducing the birth rate in the future islikelv to 'hp the shortage of medical and nara-medical nersonneL; but importantaspects are also better coordination between ministries, health regions andexv+ernal f donor Agencies And dprpntraIi7.%titon of sithornitv within the nroaram.Official cost estimates of the family planning program are not available, butit is believ.ed that expenditure wlli total UgtS S ijillion ontivnlaent hbr 1072of which US$ 1.7 million equivalent would be from Tunisian sources.

D. Education and Employment

25. Education has a prominent place in Tunisia's economic and socialdeilomn stat^; _*_+- Erol16me nt s4 inprimr educsti4on no Pc o - 7o 73uc v .L VkJ1WLAu' a t bL.L Ibj . ~" JJ..W6. L.L~~~% & ~VJ ~ £ I

percent of the relevant age group (91 percent of the boys and 54 percent ofthe g'rls) 1 However, despite the double shift syste o… rting uring thefirst two years, about 25 percent of the children at entry age do not find aplace in prlmary schools.

26. Secondary education is growing at a very rapid pace: enrollmentsincreased by 165 percent over the last six years to about 21 percent of therelevant age group. Government policy is to admit 40 percent or primaryschool leavers to secondary education. The secondary education system hasbeen frequently revised in the last few years, in response to the high failurerate and the growing awareness that the system is not meeting labor marketdemands. Courses have been extended aud technical-vocational education in the

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first three years has been discontinued and postponed till the fourth and fifthyear. Secondar7y education vill nov be a seven-year course with eertificeateexits at the end of the third, fifth and seventh year.

27. Public current expenditure on education rose from D 23.7 million in.LJ to ari estvALtedA D3 J7.5 M414 4lo i1969 anA its share of totl expenditure

rose from 16 percent in 1960 to 23 percent in 1965 and 27 percent in 1969.Abou' 47 pe ren oX 'I e educa. o n b udget 4is spen on pri-y ed ictI i on, 45

percent on all forms of secondary education and 7.5 percent on higher educa-tion. Aecording to t'he r"larz project.ions, the current education budget for

1972 is expected to absorb 28 percent of all public current expenditure.Tnese projections are based on 'the assumption that costs per student will re=main constant. They do not take account of a number of factors which villtend to raise unit costs, such as the approved increse in salaries, reducedstudent/teacher ratios in primary and higher education, higher teacher quali-fications and the new University campus. It is therefore unlikely that unitcosts can be kept constant during the period under review and current expen-diture mighn weli rise aDove tne projections for 1972 unless u"justments inthe educational targets are made.

28. Gross fixed investment in education increased from D 9.0 million in1965 to D 12.5 million in 1969 and its share of government investment rosefrom 5 percent in 1960 to 18 percent in 1965 and 30 percent in 1968. It isexpected to drop to 23 percent in 1969. Total capital expenditure earmarkedfor education during the Plan period 1969-1972 is D 46.o million of whichabout half is for secondary education and a third for higher education. Costsare likely to be underestimated especially for secondary education. Theplanned 129,000 new places would, at the present unit cost or D 400 - D 550,amount to a total of D 62 million. Studies are therefore underway to reassesthe expansion of secondary education. It should be noted in addition thatthe. above investment estimates do not include provisions for replacement ormajor repairs of existing schools nor for increases in building costs.

29. The major problem of secondary education, the lack of qualifiedteachers, remains unsolved. Despite the expansion of teacher training, thepercentage of expatriates in the total teaching force has increased in thelast few years, but many of them are not qualified. Nearly 5,000 additionalsecondary school teachers will be needed during the 4-year plan period, notincluding regular replacements which could well account for an additional needfor 400-500 teachers. Training of Tunisian teachers vill hopefully producesome 2,900 teachers during the same period. The considerable deficit will befilled by further recruitment of expatriate staff and by increased workinghoure. However, teachers are already now working extra hours to make up forthe more than 10 percent teacher deficit accumulated during the previous Planperiod and it is not clear hov elastic this factor is.

30. It is the government's intention that all qualified students, gradu-ating from secondary schools, vho apply for higher education, should be admit-ted to the University. So far, the output of students with a full "baccalau-reat" has been modest and the number of admissions rather limited in numbers.The prolected expansion of higher education is relatively modest: enrollmentsat the University of Tunis are planned to increase from 7,660 to 10,350 in the

- 8 -

period under review with the number of Tunisian students abroad dropping from2,270 to 955. Projections are based on rather low admission estimates, whichmight vell underestimate the demand for university admission resulting fromthe expansion of secondary education. Unless stricter admission standards areapplied, higher education might grow at a faster rate than foreseen. The crestin the demand wave, however. will probably enter the University in the yearsjust following the period under review.

31. Earollments in primary education are planned to grow by nearly 17nercent in the coming four years to nearly 1 million pupils or about 80 per-cent of the relevant age group. Stricter rules will be applied to classrenetition. Clas8 sizes are intended to be reduced and- as a result. teacher

requirements will rise by 28 percent. The small minority of foreign teachersia nlannAd tn he repnlated annd a modest beBinninu will be mAde with the up-

grading of the local teaching force.

32. The planned expansion of secondary education is far more rapid.TOt°1. al vw.I I mm,4 %g4I- 1 in y 1 .1-ly AWAiUbt1eh i4n XI prei5 nA an in a i.al t, tChe. o uII+t

of graduates and drop-outs will virtually triple in the somewhat longer periodI*. +0 I . . *J4iS -, *. . erpns n o i. any V-V gene +o the

country's manpower requirements, nor determined by available financial andte-cher reso.-e:, bu-t a direct rest-A o +of the gwver iants policy to alimt+ Lo

percent of the primary school output to secondary education.

33. The Plan projects an average annual increase in employment of 2.6pec ..ent 4- -1QKA_'1Ql7_ ---- A ,,44 w,k a _+44..A -v.- ra+e O 2.

t. UU &-A£14 L7W.&~7J I-...m -C = *vJ C -S- m - S … "

percent between 1966 and 1968. The forecast implies that 122,000 more jobsW.L& we w alable buj the Nend Of the Plan. rie .taC s i8 e .dby +o

decline further, while a moderate increase is foreseen in the service industries.A i .... LJ3 R J4..c.

-. _. &U- a__ -_ 1. s

O"U.L iLk p'UU.L.L 8_uinLhLLDiSIS -~

34i. RelbLJ.Lg eti,a.Ltes,CM VA. thUe Ulon5-e .dUAeU fd.r id ULe L nd hU -leve l

manpower, vhich might serve as a guide for further planning, are not available.However, it wrould appear from partil_ evidence ta-t deand for h.igh-level mn-power, with university or equivalent qualifications, is still unsatisfied;shortages continue to exlst and large nuMbers ou expatriate staff remain tobe replaced in many sectors. These include the teaching profession where thedemand is known with sore degree of accuracy and the fields of agric-ulture,engineering and medicine. Greater precision in assessing the long-term demandby sector and profession is needed to formulate plans for the expansion ofhigher education.

35. At the secondary level, most of the relatively small number of stu-dents who have graduated from the long secondary cycle have no difficulty infinding access to higher education at home or abroad and the remainder findsemployment without major difficulties. For those who have only followed theshort secondary course or have dropped out of the long cycle, the situationis far more difficult, and the supply is exceeding demand to such an extentthat many remain unemployed for considerable periods of time. It appearsthat many of those who have followed the expensive technical courses, ultim-ately find employment in occupations where no use is made of their education.

-9-

Private employers seem to prefer to recruit workers with lower (Drimary)

education level, whose salary and work expectations are more modest and who

can be trained on the job. This problem is likely to become more serious

with the expansion of secondary education in 1969-1973 planned to result in

a three-fold increase in the output of secondary schools by 1975.

36. On the whole, the targets set for the development of primary educa-

tion during the plan period are modest, while plans for secondary education

are far more ambitious and likely to exceed manDower demands. Secondary

education, morenver, is not sufficiently geared to meet specific labor market

demands and considerable expenditure on technical education is often wasted

because appropriate employment onportunities are lacking. Furthermore, the

qualitv of secondary education is likely to be adversely affected by the

growing shortage of teachers and the lack of funds.

37. Secondary education in Tunisia is presently in a state of transition.

Structural reforms of the economy have been following each other in rapid suc-

cession. In these circumstances, it is particuarly difficult to see the spe-

cifir PLtuare needs. However, there is little evidence that attention is

given to the labor market situation and to the limitations of available re-

sources, particularly of both teachers and finance. A critical evaluation

of the system is in process and should lead to a revision of the high enroll-

ment tar.gets, to a simplification ofi the comnTlex and diversified system andto a closer alignment of technical education to the likely demands of the

e C on omy.

38. At th4e le-e1 l of higher education, certain eategories of university

trained manpower are in short supply and expansion is needed to satisfy these

specific needs. However, in the absence of a comprehensive plan for the de-

velopment of higher education, the risk of misallocating considerable amounts

OfL ca:p-itall fsunds in tL1hils sector vMdb~e h.igh.

E. St 1ructural. nReforms a-. the Cooperative movem.uent

39. Thie cooperative movement has exDanded rapidly in rece-nt venrs Fnd

has become more and more the central element in the drive for structural re-.orms. L At [he end o0f1 June 1968 about one third Of the economicary a -ct

population was organized into some thousand production cooperatives. A first

attempt at organizing large parts of the econory in cooperatives was madeduring the Three-Year Plan 1962-64. Also at this time regional unions of

cooDeration were established, primarily with the purDose of introducing soe

measure of uniformity in management and accounting and to spread the general

philosophy of cooperation.

40o. Tne creation of production cooueratives was continued during theperiod of the Four Year Plan 1965-68, and at the same time local unions of

cooperation were established, each one serving a regional development unit.Furthermore, specialized regional cooperatives were set up for activitiessuch as commerce, livestock rearing, fruit and vegetables production and*provision of agricultural equipment.

- 10 -

41. During this period a start was made to form Central Unions of Coon-eratives with the Durpose of supporting the Regional Unions, supplying to themember cooperatives the needed inputs and providing them with an assured mar-ket for their production. Some twelve such Central Unions have been or arein the process of being established, covering a varietv of activities in agri-culture, cf-erce and handicraft. (See organigram)

42. At the beginning of 1969 the National Union of Cooperation wasconstituted to coordinate and promote all activities of the coonerative move-ment in Tunisia. The mission of the National Union of CooDeration was de-fined to promote the creation of a new society vithin the framework of de-stourien socialism which would guarantee prosperity and dignity to each per-son, to heln eonsolidate the prineinle of national unity in nrnmoting theconcept of solidarity among its members and to participate in the reforms-of the econnrmle soci.1 and mental structures- Tn the pror-ess- the coonera-tive movement had to adapt itself to the national objectives.

43. There is no doubt that the political leaders look upon the coopera-tive system as the hest+ and quijckesat way to ach4ievew the fundamental obJectivesof the state. They also consider that the leaders of the cooperatives arebest suited to im-Ile .er.t not only political bout --oeoomcdmcracy.Organizing the economy in cooperatives has therefore been pushed ahead con-

s-derably for o I r sc particular att- -

tion in this process and the Government has taken the decision to organizeth eentir en 4 n- ul+urne1 se^+or in the f-o of cooperatives before the end a o.1969.

44. In implem6fiting these principles of the cooperative movement, theprodaAucti4A on un it is4 looked upon as a kind Of training - -. - - - - - -.-.-- w-

4-- 4ttin4 .. -t

the working member of the cooperative technical and economic knowledge as wellas idAeas on t1.he principles ofL democracy ,d-u social Justi-.A1ce, and subsequentlys,transforming his entire mentality in the process. It is on this basis thatthe government i8 pushing ahead w"'h the generalization of the cooperattivemovement into other economic sectors.

45. The accelerated "cooperativisation", which is central in what iscommonly called structural reforms of the economy, goes therefore far beyondthe attempt to solve economic problems: it amounts to a radical transforma-tion of Tunisian society. Individual responsibility for Drogress and integ-ration of the educated into a homogenous society without creating an isolatedelite, thereby avoiding a rupture between social categories, has been a primepreoccupation. Stability, harmony, peace and security are considered the mainelements in an evolution which is intended to be based on a cooperative struc-ture respecting private property as well as recognizing basic functions ofpublic bodies.

46. The introduction of the cooperative system constituted a decisivefactor in the modification of the ownership structure, which very often im-peded the introduction of more modern farming systems. Although the exploi-tation becomes collective, each member of the cooperative retains an ownershipright to the extent of his original contribution. Profits of cooperatives

are distributed according to a fixed schedule of percentages, the parts goingt .o t1 r/ a- U bae to the m=-'Uers Of the Cooperati.1e, (2) reserves, (3 ) remune-ration of the cooperative capital and (4) bonus for the employees.

4T. This policy of introducing cooperative systems was largely promotedby the need to introduce a system of production to replace the French colonswho had engaged in large scale agricultural production. Tunisia is now en-countering the problems which arise in extending this system in different cir-cumstances.

48. Furthermore, the nature of these basic political choices has oftenprevented the application of strict economic criteria and short-term mea-surable economic benefits have perhaps been sacrificed for far less certainlonger-term development prospects. In addition, the strategy of economicdevelopment as well as its implementation have been affected. Agriculturehas been deliberately chosen as the main economic basis and the social frame-work of the country, while industry and more recently the booming touristtrade have been accepted as contributions to the creation of incomes. TheGovernment considers competition to be consistent with its cooperative policy,but competition could be promoted more vigorously as a basic mechanism todirect economic development.

49. The organization of agricultural production in cooperatives hasbeen pushed ahead at a greatly accelerated pace in order to prevent the cre-ation of two different agricultural societies, one individual, and one in co-operatives. Similar motivations have been and still are at the basis of thegeneralization of the cooperativisation principle in retail trade, handicraftand other activities.

50. Deliberately, the risk has been taken to accept a possible declinein productivity of previously comparatively efficient farming units, in orderto be able to spread at the same time new technologies ard new managementapproaches over the vhole of the country. It is generally recognized thatthis can only be achieved very imperfectly, given the lack of sufficientlytrained technicians and administrators as. well as current and capital inputs.The rapid acceleration in cooperatives for 1969 thus appears inconsistentwith the achievement of other Plan objectives and these obJectives will haveto be modified or the pace of acceleration reduced. A general assessment ofthe possible effects of cooperativisation in other Rectors of the economv is.because of lack of experience, even more difficult.

IV. PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS OF THE PRINCIPAL SECTORS OF THE RCONOMY

A. Agriculture

51. Agriculture is still the dominant economic activity in Tunisia,although itsa direco.th share in tbe 'rHatian Of 1ninme h ieen decr

substantially. Between 1960 and 1968 agriculture's contribution to GDP dec-lined from 25 rpercent to 17 percent, * owever, a significnntly lager share

of the population still finds its livelihood in agriculture. It is estimatedthat in 1966 about 408 p.cIrnt of the labor Iorce was employed in agriculture,compared to 65 percent in 1956.

52. Agricultural production trends are difficult to establish becau.seof large fluctuations from year to year as a result of erratic rainfall.Draughts in 1966, 1967 and 1968 have limited considerably overall agricul-tural production and production levels in those years stayed consistentlyand considerably below the levels of the early sixties.

53. The institutional set-up in agriculture is presently undergoing afundamental transformation. important functions, such as trade and storage,previously performed by various public bodies reporting-to the Sous-secretariatd'sEtat a !!Agriculture, have been and will be assigned to cooperatives. Sometrade offices (Office de Cc-mercialisation) such as for olive oil and winehave already been replaced by corresponding Central Unions of Cooperatives.The Office for Cereals continues in spite of the establishment of the CentralUnion of Cereal producing cooperatives (Union centrale des Cooperatives etGrandes Cultures). The latter has taken over the trade function while pur-chasing and storage activities have been left with the old institution.

54. Since January 1969 the cooperative system has been further strength-ened by the inception of the National Union of Coperation, heading up and co-ordinating all cooperative activities. The Central Unions of Cooperativeshave been organized to cover on a nationwide basis the main economic sectors,and within agriculture, the main products. They serve as service organizations(buyer - seller) to the regional Unions of Cooperatives which are establishedon a "gouvernorat" basis and have multisectoral responsibilities. Their mem-bers are all local service cooperatives which are gradually being replaced bylocal unions of cooperatives, each covering in turn about 20 cooperative pro-duction units. In addition, specialized regional cooperatives are being es-tablished to take over part of the increasing burden of regional unions ofcooperatives; they are members of both the corresponding specialized centralunions and of the regional unions of cooperatives. (see organigram)

55. This institutional organization surrounds a system of productionincluding cooperative units cultivating from 500 to 3,000 ha. each, indivi-dual farming units vhich vary greatly in size from 1 to 300 ha., and gener-ally subsidized public enterprises called Offices of Land DeveloaDment. TheOffices of Land Development (Offices de Mise en Valeur) will gradually dis-aDDear as the agricultural reforms are Dushed ahead. It aDDears that onlvthe Medjerda valley development office (OMVVM = Office de 1a Mise en Valeurde la Vallee de la Medlerda) will continue to be in existence, while theOffice des Terres Domaniales is expected to transfer all its remaining landto conneratives and nre-eooneratives durino, the firRt vears of the Plan-Perhaps 40 percent of the land under cultivation was organized in cooperativesor pre-ooperattives in the spring Of 1969, but the reorganvanni7tnoMe of 41jm

tural production in cooperatives was proceeding rapidly at that time. Accord-ing to the C vernmentla Aeeiinon the entire- enflricl+-,tural sec-tor will be re-organized in cooperatives before the end of 1969.

- 13 -

56. Prices are controlled to an increasing extent by the respectiveTrade Offices or Central Unions of Cooperatives after their inception. FixedDroducer prices already existed before independence for hard wheat, softwheat Annd barley. Producer prices for cereals had remained unchanzed for along Deriod. They were raised only in recent years by 15 to 25 percent.While cereals prices were still relativelv high in the late 1950's, there istoday comparatively little incentive for cereal production. The decrease inthe premiumm on hard wheat over soft wheat from 22 percent to 12 nercentnevertheless reflects the Government's desire to promote soft wheat produc-tion. For export products, such ac olire orl, fruit and weqtphl1ps, winpe

specialized organizations either in the form of Government trading officeso-r coonerati:ess, usually have eXDort monopolies. Theyl set producer Erice

depending on expected price levels on world markets.

57. For products to be sold on the domestic market such as meat, poultry,fr-it, and vegetables trices continue to be fixed by supply and demann on

wholesale markets. However, the number of sellers as well as buyers, has beenconsiderabuy reluced recen lto include only a few representatives Of c-ooper-

atives. Meat prices have shown a persistent unward trend. Lamb, veal andUeef pri'vces (second quality/) hlave increased Ey L0, 26 a-d 44 perce.-t respec-

tively between 1960 and 1967. On the other hand, prices for fruit and vege-tables deereased with hiLgher production during the last few years. At theretail level, price formation has not been free since 1957, when margins werefirst set by law. Tnere is little doubt that as a result Of this rigid syste,retail prices have been distorted by high transportation costs, a large numberof intermediaries and fraudulent quality practices to compensate for low prices.A parallel market with fluctuating prices has therefore existed for a number ofproducts. On the whole, little use is made of price polic-y to steer production,the prime objective having been stabilization of prices. Furthermore, therapid transformation of retail trade into cooneratives leaves less and lessroom for free marketing.

58. Investments in agriculture have tended to absorb about 20 percentof total gross fixed capital formation in recent years. Agricultural invest-

ments increased considerably. and steadily in the early sixties and reached apeak of D 27.6 million in 1965. Since then they declined in each year, reach-ing D 22.7 million in 1968. Delays in implementing investments in .comparisonwith the planned targets were quite substantial. Investment targets were ful-filled only to the extent of about 50 percent during the First Plan and to theextent of about 70 percent during the Second Plan (1965-68). About two thirdsof actual investments were carried out by the Government, mainly for infrastruc-ture works such as soil and water preservation, forestry and rural development.

59. Because of the poor performance of agricultural production in recentyears, the agricultural sector has received particular attention in the newPlan. Within the general framework of policies designed to implement thestructural reforms in the agricultural economy and more specifically to bringabout the projected fundamental transformation of Tunisian society a numberof targets have been set. Total agricultural production for the period 1969-1972 is nrojected by the new Plan to be about 10 percent higher than that ofthe 1965-1968 plan period which implies an average annual increase of about5 percent as a result of declining output in recent years. The level of ex-

- 14 -

ports is to increase somewhat less and 4O,0OO new jobs are to be createki. ThePlan implies that in order to achieve these targets total investments in 'trri-

culture over the Plan period will exceed those of the previous Plan by .'percent.

60. The projected general level of agricultural production anDears to

be realistic. Decreases in vine and dates output are expected. Vineyardshave been uprooted because of poor export prosoects while palm trees areplanned to be cleared out in the oases in order to improve the quality forexport and to make room for remunerative uroducts such as vegetables.

61. The expected increase in soft wheat production is based on a moreextensive use of the new Mexican dwarf varieties. For hard wheat it mightbe more difficult to achieve the targets if sowed areas are further reducedin order to plant trees. On the other hand, forecasts for vegetables andcitrus production might be on the conservative side. Olive oil prQductionis exoected to grow moderately because of the rejuvenation of old olive ttees.in the Sahel.

62. Agricultural investment is projected to account for 21 percent ofthe total over the Plan period. Investments have been forecast nrolect byproject, with priority given to pro,jects already started. The Governmentwill be in charge of 58 percent of total investments ;rogrammed for the sec-tor. Of those 23 percent is for projects already started. These investmentsinclude outlays for work relief programs in soil conservation and forestrv.Of the projects.implemented by the Government about 70 percent will be forinfrAstrueture, Investments of enterprises amounting to 42 percent are ex-

pected to be imolemented largely by the cooperatives. However, as coopera-tives tn date have demonstrated verv little self-financing capacity. the

financiil needs would have to be covered largely by bank credits and subsidies.Tn ths livht nf nast nerformances of cooneratives as well as considering credit

availabilities, it is questionable whether this program is feasible.

63. The financial needs of the agricultural sector following moderniza-tion and the struntural reforms increased subStantially in the last four years.The share of the agricultural sector in medium and long-term credit outstand-

ing has inereased from 13 percent in 19h4 to 28 nercent- of which about 10nercent arrears. Short-term bank credit to arriculture, which represented 3percent of t-4otal shortmterrm credit out1tanriitn in I1f64 , increased tn n sharp

of 9 percent in 1968. Production results have been noor in part because of_-dvers . 44e ., 4 ne condn e1rionin ine196 And nn ni trn th,^ Inr'k nf '-v-

auverit: WCaibl*Ci LUAAUI WU D ttJ1As O ^LL.C 7'S'J C2.A iii Us- w cx--perienced management in the new cooperatives. As a result renayments werelower than credit extension and arrears are estimated to have growrn- to abouthalf of agricultural short term credit outstanding. Northiern cooperativesalone are responsible fior nearly VU percent of 'll W rrears.

64. Short-term credit needs of private arxricultural enteroriss wereevaluated by the BNA and the Ministrv of Agriculture independently at aboutD 30 million per year. However, the Ministry of Finance esti,,ates that onlyabout D 12 to D 14 million per vear could be made available. New medium andlong term credit needs of agriculture are estimated by, the Plan at about D '1

million per year. Given the limited capacity of the agricultural sector torepay short-ter-m credits - based on production proectntifons of the Plan and in-put and sector consumption estimates - arrears of short-term credits wouldabout double bY 1972 to r^re +han D 14 ^114^n. R _ +hg_term iReirdit oultstanding

to agriculture could therefore reach some D 22 million in 1972. During thesame period medium anA 'long te... credit outst+ndir.g ^^,,d increa.ne frnm D 18

million in 1968 to some D 50 million in 1972. This rapid increase of mediumand long-term c.-edits -;ould quire sCpital invested in a.Iculture to be muchmore productive than in the past if serious additional burdens on the economyas a whole are to bue aioided.

65. Concerning Tunisia's important agricultural products it would appearthat projections are on the conservative side. Limited managerial and tech-nical capability as well as scarce financial resources are likely to preventany substantial increase in production. Given these prospects, achieving theagricultural investment and output forecasts of the Plan will depend to a con-siderable extent on a number of economic policy variables in such areas ascredit, public finance and prices. To date these instruments have not beenfully used to guide production and investments.

66. A further element of uncertainty is that the production and invest-ment forecasts in the Plan were made in anticipation of full cooperation ofthe agricultural sector by the end of the Plan and it was expected that avail-able financial, human and technical resources would be allocated to cooperativeson the basis of a phased expansion of the program. However, the decision madein January 1969 to organize the entire agricultural sector in cooperativesbefore the fall of 1969 could compromise the financial position of alreadyestablished cooperatives. In fact there is the danger that the distributionof investments may be modified to ensure the successful establishment of thenewly created cooperatives.

67. Established cooperativeB may therefore be deprived of financial re-sources while newly created cooperatives would have access to funds. This inturn creates the danger that the newly established cooperatives will acquirean indebtedness before they have an opportunity to develop managerial skillsto cope with the organizational and production problems. As far as the mana-gement of the newly created cooperatives is concerned, the Government is re-lying partly on the administrative and technical abilities of the former largeland ovners and on their sense of civic responsibility. Hovever, the principal.bottleneck in the coming years is likely to remain a pervasive lack of expe-rienced management to guide and encourage the mass of traditional farmers toadopt new production methods and the use of modern inputs. The apparent ad-vantages of larger farming units might therefore not materialize.

B. Manufacturing and Mining

68. Tunisian industrial policy during the 19 6 0's has favored the de-velopment of large enterprises, primarily in import replacing activitiessuch as cloth, steel, refined petroleum products, and vehicles and appliances;and secondarily in upgrading natural resources such as phosphate rock, espartograss, and other mineral ores. In the development of all industrial branches

- 16U -

except crude oil, where research and exploration costs have been financed

largely by foreign enterprises, Government participation has been dominant,exercised directly through funds provided from budgetary allocatio-ns and

treasury transfers, or indirectly through equity participations and loans by

other state enterprises or by Government controlled banks. Public enterprises

investment has thus accounted for some 85 percent of all investment made inmanufacturing during the past eight years.

69. The success of this policy has yet to be demonstrated. Measured

in 1966 prices and exclUding crude oil and power, cumulative gross fixed in-

vestment in mining and manufacturing totaling D 151 million from 1960-1968

contributed only D 30 million in increased output during the period. Despite

dominant market positions and protection from import competition, profitabi-

lity has been low, and cash requirements have had to be met directly from the

Treasury, from the resources of public trading firms, or by increased borrow-

ing from the banking system.

70. The sources of these difficulties vary from enterprise to enter-

prise. In many instances, to achieve overall investment targets, projects

were insufficiently studied and decisions were made hastily without adequate

attention to economic returns. Sales prospects in Tunisia's limited market

were overestimated, and fixed investment was high. Working capital require-

ments were underestimated, and credit was extended beyond anticipations, re-

sulting in heavy financial charges. Marketing bottlenecks occurred in certain

domestic lines, oving to difficulties in gaining consumer acceptance, and to

the unsettling effects of extending cooperatives in trade. World market con-

ditions developed unfavorably in phosphates, fertilizers and iron ore, though

fertilizer exports have recently expanded. Qualified manpower resources were

also overextended, not only because of insufficient quantity, but because of

an environment which has resulted in overemphasis on production and investment,

at the expense of marketing and profitability.

71. In general prices are controlled in Tunisia, but past enterprise

financial performance is not explained by a deliberate policy to keep producer

prices low. In practice prices of new products or monopolies are typically

established on the basis of estimated costs and expenses submitted by the

producers to the price control authorities. A margin of profit is then allowed

as a percentage of costs and expenses. Because price control authorities have

not the staff nor comparative experience to Judge the reasonableness of the

producers' estimates, nor frequently the authority to impose decisions on

enterprise managers, the estimates are generally acceDted. Given a fixed

margin on cost, the producers in turn have little incentive to increase effi-

eieney. nCosts and expenses tend to be underestimated initially, and the

initial estimates are no longer applicable after the investment has been

realized and when prices are actually set.

72. Fronm loR-1972 niiotput in mining and manufacturing, excluding crude

oil, is projected to grow at a real annual rate of 7.8 percent, compared with5.7 percet achieved duIng the preceding period. Increased outnut and greater

efficiency are expected to permit a substantial increase in savings. Total

- 17 -

investment in manufacturing is pro,jected to remain at the same level Rs nre-

viously, but investments in mining, particularly phosohates, are planned to

double. Investments bv public enterprises are Drojected to continue to ac-

count for over 80 percent of total investment in mining and manufacturing.

73. Concerning the overall level of investment in industry and the

reliance on public intervention, the new Plan represents a continuation of

past policies. Moreover, the principal investment outlays planned to be made

by the public enterprises will take place in activities at present charac-

terized by a hioh degree of uncertainty and risk, namely the production of

sulfuric and phosphoric acid and an increase in phosphate mining capacity.With respect to these major projects it should be observed that the technical

options to be chosen for the develonment Of sulfuric acid had not yet been

finally decided when the Plan was prepared, and the long run market prospects

for phosphate rock ar-e now being studied. One could thus expect an improve-

ment in the economic justification of the final investment decisions. Yet

because of the lack of checks and balances to deter canital spendina once

targets have been set, the danger remains that the authorities will go aheaddespite uncertain economic returns. Thus in the case of the ICM phosphoric

acid project, the economic rate of return is low on the basis of conservativeestimates and market prospects a-re ncertain. Nevertheless the Government is

planning to establish the project as part of its policy to increase the valueof phosphate production and develop the southern region of the country.

74. The Plan also includes the extension of past policy in another sig-

nificant area, the proposed consolidation and merger of enterprises in agri-

cultural processing an.d in other activit4es such as shoe and clothina manu-facture, where production is actually carried out by small enterprises. The

Justification g'ven for this policy by the Plarn is to achieve economies ofscale in the use of management, in purchasing inputs and marketing outputs and

to permit a fuller utilization of capacit,v in line with seasonal cycles in

agricultural production. As a result of cooperativization in trade, the ex-

tension of the activities of public commercial offices, and the monopoly or

quasi-monopoly position of important enterprises in other industrial branches,

food processing is now one of the most important industrial activities con-

sidered to be "unorganized", and this is the orincipal justification given by

the Government to create larger industrial and handicraft units. Nevertheless,

the food industrv is also one of the industrial activities which, in less coop-

erativized economies, is most adapted to private development. In view of the

new association with the European Economic Community, it would appear tnat

the prospects for private investors in food processing would be relativelyfavorable, compared with other industrial activities, and that encouragementof private investment in agricultural industry might be an efficient develop-ment policy.

75. There is little doubt that on the whole project preparation andevaluation have been improved, and that the Tunisian authorities now view the

country's industrial handicaps and prospects with substantially more realism

than before. A Center for Industrial Studies has been established, and atthe Plan level continuing project evaluation has been initiated, althoughboth activities are still in need of strengthening. The investment program

- 18 -

in the Plan in reGgarded as provitding g.u ideline, whieh eon he adjusted asstudies are completed and alternatives evaluated, and sme projects includedin the P1Asn ar at present haing mordf4ie or hae e h ab ,. M o

taken as a vhole investments to develop exports have been given much greaterempnhnais fha" in +he nvre^adinm PI.-, - U °°aot23Oftepouton attributable to nev investments is destined for export.

76. The prospects for achieving the projected growth in industrial out-p,, .- A --- 4-4+U4 14+., AA ---- A ___- -- *_&Iw4 -4eL~ _t~ r^Ww-f.L= rWU A.A -M^w&%sVs Uve:s Lu" uprwu H v

existing enterprises than on returns from new investments, since output from~hJ~.Ld~~L J LIJ I,1~ MUD~ DG.LI.. 1I.J. - .U .- - --- -- LLLL- IZLJJ I flC I -the latter Ji8 for -tihe M08t- palt. nuot, expctedC UV Imaterialize -until the 1last

year of the Plan or thereafter. With respect to exports the prospects formost products are more favorable than iu the past aW a resuit Of the EECAccord and increasing trade with Libya and some sub-Saharan countries. InpartIcular the outlook for ferilizers, agric-ultural products, building mate-rials, leather goods and handicrafts has improved. On the other hand diffi-culties feacing miueral ores, especially in Western markets for phosphate, canbe expected to continue, and as a result Tunisia is turning more and moretowarus Eastern European outlets.

77. With respect to production for the domestic market many or the.obstacles mentioned above must still be overcome, and much will depend onthe impact on demand of growth in the agricultural and tourist sectors.Action has been initiated to strengthen capital structures, improve proceduresfor allocating imported raw materials and supplies, provide more qualifiedmanpower, and organize markets. Nevertheless, bottlenecks resulting from thefundamental complexity of direct intervention in the allocation of resourcesunder rapidly changing conditions can be expected, and unless considerationis given to discontinuing some high cost activities, improving producer in-centives, and establishing closer relations with advancing foreign technol-ogies, satisfactory financial performance will be difficult to achieve. Itcould become even more difficult in the years following the present Plan iffurther capital intensive projects are launched in the face of low or pro-spectively low economic returns.

C. Transportation

78. Upon achievement of independence in 1956, Tunisia inherited an ex-tensive transport system to which there have been only modest additions overthe past decade. The rail network is about 2,000 km long and is essentiallyused for bulk shipment. The road network of more than 15,000 km, over halfof which is bituminous paved, radiates from Tunis and interconnects the re-gions. Since 1961 the country has acquired a small shipping fleet of about15,000 dead weight tons and an airline comprising four medium range jets.

79. The contribution of the transport sector to the economy has been in-creasing. From 1964 through 1968 its share of GNP went from about 6 percentto about 7.5 percent. During the same period traffic volumes for the varioustransport modes increased at rates ranging from 5 percent to 10 percent perannum, with a much faster growth of air transport and a progressive shift of

- 19 -

land transport from rail to road. Achievement of the expected growth of

phosphate mining and tourism, which are two of the main generators of trafficmovement, would result in a considerably higher demand for transport services.

80. In 1967-68 a comprehensive transport survey was made by consultants

which forms the basis for the 1969-1972 transport investment plan. Planned

public sector investment amount to D 80 million, corresponding to a 90 percent

increase over the previous Four Year Plan. This large increase of investment

stems largely from the low investment levels in previous years and the result-

ing need to carry out urgent replacement, and to build up capacities in the

higher level of demand. In its broad lines the Plan is well conceived and in

general projects have high economic priority and are expected to earn reason-

able returns.

81. Hovever, social and political reasons have been prominent in the

Government's intention to promote industrial development in the Gabes area.

It is not yet established whether the contemplated phosphate exports will be

sufficient to provide an economic justification for the planned port and rail-

road investment. Uncertainties both as to the potential market for Tunisian

phosphate and as to the technical and economic feasibility of enrichment of

the ore suggest that a decision on this project should have been postponed

until the results of the studies presently under way become available.

82. The increased importance of the transport sector, and a substantially

larger investment program would appear to require an efficient organization of

the transport administration and an adaptation of transport policies to eco-

nomic development needs. Enphasis should be put on the coordination of all

decisions concerning the transport sector, general liberalization of policies,

and especially improvement of the coordination between modes of transport with

particular consideration to increase efficiency of road transport. The Govern-

ment is presently studying these problems and recomnendations to this effect

are contained in the recent consultant's survey.

83. A number of issues in transport policy touch on the fundamentalproblem of conceiving of a strate-v of general economic policies. Liberaliza-

tion generally and paying greater attention to cost aspects could probablygreatlv imnrove the efficiency of the transport industry. Typical steps in

this direction would include leaving tarification of road transport to the

initiative of the' transport companies and alloving private truck owners to

carry freight for third parties. Present road user charges are such that an

apnrnnriate enntrihutinn twavrds the Government's annual outlays on road con-struction and maintenance seems to be recovered from the beneficiaries of theroad systemq , hit the ta-ation of heavy vehicles eould be imnroved to reflectmore accurately the damage done to the pavement.

D. Tourism

84. Over the past eight years Tunisia has fostered a rapidly growing

tourist industry wi4th substa.ntial and rising benefit to the econom. In

the early years of tourism development the Government participated directly

- 20 -

in hotel construction through a public corporation, SHTT, which erected achain of predominantly luxury and first class hotels. During the past fouryears, however, the Government has altered its role, and now encourages do-mestic and foreign private investment in hotel construction through tax andother financial incentives. and the provision of promotional and planningservices administered by a public agency, CGTT, financed from the developmentbudget. Onerations of hotels have become quite nrofitable In the nast yearor so, with returns on equity in well managed medium and lower cost unitsrunning from 15 to 25 percent.

85. Tourists come nrimarilv from Western Euronpe And Are attrarted hv

Tunisia's 300 km of beaches, sunny climate, and its historic relics. Promo-tional nolicy has been direeted at attrartin' charter narties thrvouh maiio-

European agencies, and it is estimated that parties on charter or tour accountfor about 70 nertent of all ni1hts snent The strength of demant forr 'Tnisiantourism is indicated by an average annual increase in visitor nights and for-eign exchange reee4pnts Of about 40 npercent qsincp 19Q, and the fA.'t thaf doanite

the Middle East crisis in 1967, exchange restrictions in Western Europe inlg68~ an e no>tit4ve de~vn,aluation acArpti rs orntAs, foreign ex-

change receipts increased by 28 percent last year.

86. The Plan projects gross fixed investment of D 60 million, and thecon8twi-tit_n nf n40,00n hwAed, &nmpard with totnl investmnat of D 45 5il-

lion and completion of 17,200 beds in the period 1965-1968. The average in-vestment cost per bed is expected to decline from D 2,`5001 1,50, which

Tunisian authorities attribute to more modest facilities and greater efficiency4 ,-,,o+ ,__.s4 4 -VA_ +- --(+4 e+ 4 -,.e,+ -_+ 4 ,,+ eA + r_; f btA.*v_-- _V.n.a, s .V- .... V-. _. ... ,c .r. 0 .c.,.. o CyF2n4I. -*C J FtJ % V<'-' Ut, v sow A v 41u GUL'LL

3 million in 1968 to 8 million in 1972, while foreign exchange earnings areexpected to 4ncresse fro- 1D 21 million to D 39 million, implying a decline- inwJ~ AC A a A- 4.4. 4.LJ t,f Ut, I' J7 11. .. A JA 4~J~ L.LLI~ i

average tourist spending per night from 7 dinars in 1966 to 5 dinars in 1972.A tour4 st ]o.4 4d-iA .op4, Yth I pa h een establshed this

,n utj .j. U AWJ-L%&JAJe %CW.FCAup J , W.L %,Al ~Lr. C MA 4L91J.J 1LO~ V~1 k. 1.UI.A.i uLI L IsL

year and could provide some 30 percent of the total finance required, but inview of other demands placed on local cCurrency capital resources shortages ofdomestic funds may appear.

87. Barring major upheavals tourist demand can be expected to evolvefavorably, and growth in Tunisia is more likely to be limited by capacitythan demand. Last year hotels operated at about 60 percent of capacity, onthe average, and many achieved 100 percent occupancy during the peak seasonin August. Maintenance of a 60 percent occupancy rate in the face of pro-jected tourist growth would approximately require the 100 hotels and vaca-tion villages planned to be completed. This is more than double the numberconstructed during the last four years, however, and the estimated cost perbed appears optimistic. If the cost per bed turned out to be higher, as seemslikely, difficulties could be encountered in finding the finances. F'urtherconstraints could be insufficient development of related infrastructure andhigh prices relative to those applied in Europe, particularly in Spain.

- 21 -

88. As a result of the likelihood of lower capacity, the projectionof nights spent may be somewhat on the high side. On the other hand the dropin estimated expenditures per night is perhaps overly conservative. It wouldappear that the projection of foreign exchange receipts is within reason andcould be exceeded even if tourist expenditure per night declined moderately.

V. DOMESTIC FINANCE

A. Public Finance

8Q During the nast eight vears Tunisia has had difficulty in venerat-ing public savings. The lov level of public savings is particularly strikingwhen one eonnldera that Tuniaia has one of the hichest ratios of revenue toGDP among developing countries of comparable per capita income.

As Percent of GDP at Market Prices

Average Ec. Budget1960 1961/1963 o lo 1966 16Q7 1968 1969

Government Revenue 24.9 22.9 24.4 27.4 26.9 26.3 7

Government Savings 3.7 1.8 3.8 4.2 2.9 1.6 3.1Governmen+ Fixed

Investment 8.9 8.7 8.9 9.4 8.7 7.5 8.9

gO. The problem of public savings became acute in 1967/68, the lastIL-wo years Of thL'e FirLst FourV--Y> Plan, wh,en the current, fupl fel}l

significantly below the expectations of the Government. In 1968 the Bank1Jdu alreauI - expressedu sUme reservations orn the public sw-ii-ngs tVA argeL, pro-jected by the Economic Budget, but on the basis of preliminary figuresGeneral Government savings were even lower than foreaeen, amounting toonly D 9 million as against D 23 million projected by the authorities attue beginning of the year. The main reason was a shortfall in Central Govern-ment revenue of about D 8 million relative to budget estimates, together withan increase in current expenditure Of about 11 perCexit, wveil above the 7 per-cent indicated in the Budget estimates.

91. In the long run, savings performance has been essentially an ex-penditure problem. Between 1965 and i968 current expenditures increased by12 percent per annum as against a growth rate of GDP of only about 5 percentin current prices. Inability to adjust expenditure policy to shortfalls inrevenue, even when these became apparent fairly early in the year, has alsocontributed to low public savings, as was the case in l967 and 1968. hneGovernment has recently started following short-term changes in key economicvariables including public finance, and this is an important step towardsimproved financial control.

92. The decline in savings called for reduced public investment, butsuch reductions have been more than offset by rising outlays for capital

transfers to enterprises and debt repayment. The overall cash deficit of

- 22 -

the General Government has conaequentlv also reached a hiah level, about12 percent of GDP in 1968. To finance the deficit, external resources have

li,uallv been relied on more thnn dom-estie bnrrowing, rpeiilting in inereaspd

foreign debt service charges. In 1968, however, apparently under pressure

from the authorities,; transfers to the Treasury of deposits of the postaibanking system, and Social Security Institutions and Trade Offices reached an

un-precedented level, -rovidin- additional domestic resources,

93. ~Cu_r-nt expenditures during the last Plan !1965-1968! inc-rease dmuch faster than during the early sixties when their growth rate was only6, percent. Thi2-- axp%s^1n eOr ecurrent ex"enditure cannot be imp%uted solely

to the large effort in providing basic social services to the collectivity.Although spendiing on s-oci. l se.ViCes in 1968 o- nted to 43 -erent of

total current expenditure as against 36 percent in 1960, administrativeexpenditure, which increased at h- * the rate Of grovh of tot 1 curent

expenditure between 1960 and 1964, rose at almost the same rate as currentexpenditue t-hereaf,1t.er.

94. Gruwrh -in expend.Uture for soc'-i 1 se.;iLces 'Ls exp,18Ine-d mainly b

the expansion of capital expenditure, particularly education, which rose fromD 2.2 million in 1960 to Di 6.7 il'Lon in 1964 andu to almost LO 1 m.llon in1968. The effect of new investment on current expenditure was underestimatedand was an Important reason for subsequent difficulties in curbing crrent

expenditure.

95. Betveen 1965 and 1968 the increase in the wage bill (at an annualrate of 14 Dercent) accounted for more than two-thirds of the total risein current expenditure. The wage bill increased mainly because of thehiring of more personnel. except in 1966 when a pay raise was granted.Subsidies to enterprises, on the contrary, remained practically unchanged,reflecting the effort of the Government in stabilizing, if not improving,current operations of such public institutions as railways, broadcastingervi1ces And _igrieultural enterprises. There was also a rapid increase in

interest payments during the period.

General Government Current ExpenditureEconomic Classification

(in millions of dinars)Fourth PlanProjection

960 1964 1965 1968 1969 1972Provisional Ec. Budget

Wages and Salaries 38.8 52.9 58.7 86.2 89.4 iO7.4Purchases of Goods andServices 17.2 19.9 20.6 24.5 26.4 32.0

Subsidies to Enterprises 3.9 3.0 5.8 5.8 5.3 5.8Social SecurityContributions 5.9 7.1 8.1 10.2 10.7 12.5

Interest on Debt 2.0 2.3 3.0 7.0 9.4 10.1Other Transfers 3.2 4.6 5.3 7.5 7.9 9.3

TOTAL 71.0 89.8 101.5 141.2 149.1 177.1

96. The problem with Tunisian revenues is not their level but ratherthe lack of elasticity, particularly of Central Government revenue. From1960-1968 there were a number of increases in tax rates as well as a broad-ening of the basis of sume important taxes (public enterpriseu were submittedto the corporation income tax in 1966), but the ratio of Central Governmentrevenue to GDP did not change. Tne apparent lack of elasticity is, however,artificially magnified because 1960 was an abnormally high year followed in1961 by a sharp decline which lasted until 1963.

97. After 1966 the ratio of revenue to GDP declined again, with asubstantial drop in 1968. GDP at market prices rose at 6.2 percent between1966 and 1968 while Central Government revenue only increased by 2.5 percent.The poor revenue performance of 1968 is explained first by a sharp declinein imports, which affected not only customs duties but also other indirecttaxes levied on imported goods. Secondly, income taxes rose only by 3 per-cent, mostly because of the impact of a tax deductible compulsory loanlaunched in that year.

98. In general, the lack of elasticity of the Tunisian tax system maybe explained by three factors. First, the tax basis of significant sourcesof revenue may grow less fast than GDP. Second, there is the tax exemptionpolicy of the Government, important examples of which are the gasoline tax,which provides exemption for uses in agriculture, and direct business taxes,which are not levied on certain new enterprises. Development of industryin Tunisia is fairly recent, and the five-year tax exemptions for new ven-tures, often extended, help explain why in the absence of increases in taxrates, corporate taxes grow less fast than enterprise output. A thirdfactor, certainly not limited to Tunisia, has been weakness in tax adminis-tration, which the tax authorities are now trying vigorously to eliminate.Recently the number of fiscal agents has been increased, and they are beingused more efficiently particularly in reviewing the overall tax positionsof important taxpayers.

99. Improving public savings, after the sharp decline in recent years,is one of the main targets of the Fourth Plan. According to the projectionsof the Plan, General Government savings in 1972 will reach 4.7 percent ofGDP at market prices as against 1.6 in 1968.

100. This implies a substantial improvement, but public savings in 1972will still be barely above the 1965-1966 average. The projected savingsDerformance depends heavily on curtailing growth in current expenditurebelow 6 percent per annum. Current revenue is projected to increase at arate of 8 nercent vhich comnares with a growth rate of GDP of about 6 ner-cent. Capital transfers to public enterprises is another area where improve-mnpnt in pyeretpd. These trmnsfern ahould deeline from D 18 millinn in 1Q68to D 15 million in 1972 (or to the 1965 level).

101. In view of the rising level of debt amortization, public savingsa-, capital tar.nsfers to enterp.rises are the two factors directly f er.ting

the expected level of public investment, since there is little room to in-crease ot'her i.4 narc-. resources. On. the domestic side, credit requirem en.ts

- 24 -

flor enterprises and Waricultural cooperatives are likel- to limit tne .-

bilities of financing General Government oDerations. As tr external fi la<n-cing proJectedU inflows are un.11kelly to be exceeded and sh^rtfalls .nnot -e

ruled out.

102. The Drojected growth in public savings durinr the Plan Deriodlargely a result of a SharD increase in 1969. The Economic Budget. puts savini.-

at D 20 million as against D 9 million in 1968. On the revenue side, tie pro-jections are on the whole realistic, owing mainly to ar, increase in tax rates,a rise in pipeline royalties, and the likelihood of a rise in imnorts to morenormal levels. However, on the current exDentuiture siue, there may be diffi-

culties in containing the increase in General Government spending to the pro-jected 6 percent. Almost no increase is foreseen for administrative exnend-

iture. In particular, the wage bill is supDosed to remain unchanped withrespect to 1968, but apparently this does not take into account the increase

resulting from the upgrading of existing personnel.

103. Continued effort to control growth in current expenditure is onlyin part a technical question. Although improvements have been made, investmentin education and health will have to be kent in check to avoid a growing budg-

etary burden. More important, however, is the caDacity of the Government toresist the pressure of the various administrations for increases in current.appropriations. The Government is also likely to come under heavy Dressurefor an increase in salary rates. The pro,jections of the Fourth Plan do notincorporate increases in salary rates and, as the Plan document states, tt.ese

would have to be covered by cuts in other current expenditure or by additional

revenue. A reclassification of Government personnel is now in process which

aims essentially to eliminate pay differentials in the government which could

imply some improvement in salaries of the lower grades. Methods of controllini,

the budget require substantial imnrovement. This imDrovement would permit moresystematic follow-up of actual expenditure of the various ministries in relation

to budget appropriations and greater efficiency in nrocessinw bills present-d

by contractors.

104. Estimates for capital transfers to public enterprises seem optim-

istic. Revised projections as of May indicate an amount not exceeding D 20

million as against the original figure of D 17 million, owing particularly

to increases for the steel plant at El Fouladh and for the Medjerda Valley

Authority. The result of a shortfall in the savings target and of underesti-

mated capital transfers is likely to be a cut in the level of gross fixed in-

vestment, which the authorities consider the true dependent variable in their

fiscal policy.

105. Capital transfers to enterprises are in part a problem of budi,et-

ary control, though depending fundamentally on enterprise Derformance. An-

nual estimates of transfers are often made without a thorough analysis of

the budgets of the enterDrises, partly because the enternrises are late inpresenting their Droposals to the Planning Office. As the year advances.

needs often are found higher than forecast, and it is difficult to resist

the pressures for higher transfers. The Government has succeeded in ac-

celerating the preparation by the enterprises of their annual budget. out,

- 25 -

closer follow up of the activities of major enterprises in the course ofthe year should be initiated. These measures would help to avoid decisionswhich tend to be presented to the Government as "faits accomplis", usuallyresulting in the need for additional funds. At the request of the Governmenta study of possible imDrovements of public enterprise performance has beenmade.

106. Projections of current revenue have been based on the expectedgrowth of the economy. They also incorporate an improvement in tax ad-ministration and new tax measures. These steps would bring the share ofGeneral Government revenue to GDP in 1972 to the very high level of 29 per-cent. The projections are basically realistic; but much will depend on thelevel of imports in turn dependent on foreign exchanae availabilities.

107. The main policy issue facing the Tunisian Government is to recon-cile the roles of the tax system as a source of revenue and as a tool forecbnomic development. Tn any event excessive explansiof n in nthlie^ pYnPdi-ture would automatically reduce the flexibility of tax policy because of theoverwhelming need for additional revenue. Policie vith respect to taxexemptions, customs tariffs, turnover taxes, and the taxation of agricul-ture are at present being reviewed.

1o8. The policy of tax exemptions is bein- questioned particularlywith respect to its effect on the elasticity of revenues. Changes in thesvstem should depend, however, on the investment policy of the Governmentand the effectiveness of the exemptions in encouraging an economic alloca-tion of resources. There is scope for maaking the exemptions ,more selectiveonce the authorities have reached conclusions on the priorities to be givento certain sectors and regions.

1n9. The role o^ agricultural taxes is arn important policy 'ssue, inview of the fact that Tunisia's development strategy recognizes agricultureas the leading sector. ML presentu agrciculural taxes play A lmited rolein part owing to past difficulties in collecting taxes from a large numberOf fa-ers. With 4Che new system ol cooperatives, it will be easier toassess taxes. To the extent that cooperative farmers respond to pricechanges, it Might be better to use prices to stim-uate higher productionand extend taxation to avoid excessive private consumption.

110. Customs tariffs are also under scrutiny. Work in this area hasbeen delayed, ho-wever, to assess the impact of association with the CommonMarket, signed last April. In the field of turnover taxes, there is needfor simplification and improvement. For example, the system of tax rebatesto exporters does not seem to operate very efficiently. Consideration isbeing given to the extension of the value added principle to all turnovertaxes, but administrative problems and uncertainties about the impact ofthe reform on the level of revenue suggest that changes in this directionwill be gradual.

- 26 -

B.Money ad Crredi't.

ill. Jam t.VULaCa Bnu. u Tunisia± v wna crented in September 1Ly), two

years after independence. Since then, a new banking structure has emerged,part6sL- .±oiwlng thae Ud.LUel-Ueat ±ULLJ.bs±.LLCatiJL1 oL une economy anu the con-centration of the banking business in fewer units and partly as a resultof a sectoral allocation of baunking activities dictated by a new approachin the conduct of economic policies. With the growing importance of tnepublic sector, two state controlled banks - the Societe Tunisienne de Banque(STB) and the Basque Nationale Agricole (ENA) - now cover three-quarters ofall credits and receive half of all deposits.

112. After a period of overall monetary and financial stability follow-ing independence, the main objective of monetary policy in the early sixtieswas to finance the Government;s deficit while limiting its inflationary ef-fects by restraining enterprise credit. However, this policy proved notsuccessful in restraining the growth of demand for credit by the non-Govern-ment sector and in order to restore a vorkable internsl and external equili-brium, more effective measures were required. A comprehensive stabilizationprogram including a standby arrangement with the IMF was therefore agreedupon in October 1964. The dinar was devalued by 25 percent, ceilings onCentral Bank credit to the Government and to the commercial banks as wellas on direct Government borrowings from the commercial banks were imposed.Within the framework of annual standby agreements a number of stabilizationmeasures were agreed upon with the IMF, and at the end of 1968 multiple ceil-ings were replaced by a single ceiling on domestic assets of the Central Bankplus foreign short-term indebtedness of the commercial banks.

113. Since the introduction of the stabilization program in 1964, thetraditional instruments of monetary management have been little used. Mar-ginal reserve requirements, varying according to the type of banking activity,were raised in 1967 and the discount rate was increased in 1966 from 4 per-cent to 5 percent. However, the Central Bank has made extensive use of directcontrols of the individual lending operations of the commercial banks.

114. From 1964 to 1968 the average annual growth of the money Bupplywas 6.8 percent ranging from about 11 percent in 1966 and 1968 to 3.7 percentand 3.2 percent in 1965 and 1967. The rapid expansion in domestic bank creditin 1965 was offset in a large measure by a substantial increase in quasi-money,an accumulation of special lending funds and a further decline in net foreignassets. The mwney supply increased considerably in 1966, mainly becauseinvestment expenditures were kept high in spite of a sharp decline in for-eign assistance and through substantial recourse to bank credit which wasenabled by transfers of aid counterpart funds from the Central Bank to thecommercial banks. An increase in quasi-money and a large balance of pay-ments deiftcit vere not sufficiently offsetting elements. In 1967 the in-crease in the money supply was limlited by a modest expansion of domesticcredit aa a resuslt ot a cut in nupubl" tnvpntmpnt erxenditumre and a deellJne

in the net foreign assets of the banking system. In the latter part of1968R the apnl

4arnanlinr in the mnnenr spinnlv nc-i-nrtaA mcAinlv bhoe-ne of'.

hiBher --- _c--- … _ … rer-nm -_

higher than forecasted credits to the Government, due mainly to an increase

- 27 -

in derosits with the treasury of the postal banking system. In addition,there was a shortfall in the expected increase in quasi-money, which was

nonetheless within the trend, and net foreign assets increased by D 6 million.

115. Since 1963 a steady and rapid increase in quasi-money has had animnprtant imnaet on the mOnetary situation. This increase was partly dueto transfers by nonresidents of their dinar current accounts to interest-earnina time denoRits renreaenting the blocked proceeds of the sale of non-residents' equity investments in Tunisia. More recently this increase hasAlsn hben tide to c-ertain transfers of US counterpart funds from the CentralBank into time deposits with a few commercial banks. Quasi-money had grownby about 34 percent at an average ann.ual rate hetween 1962 and 1966 with apeak of 41 percent in 1965. Upon Government instruction excess funds ofpublc enterpr4 ses wevre subsequently vithdra%a.wm to- bee Ade'posi ted by the Treasury;limiting the increase of quasi-money in 1967 and 1968.

116. The public sector was of decisive importance in the growth of themoney supply in recent years. Net bank credit to the GovernLment rose by 12percent in 1965 as against 47 percent in 1963 and 3 percent in 1964, but re-mained4 in .line wi.thA tAhe stabilization p.ro.hrham ce.i 1li n g s Wrhftber incre-aced

deficits in 1966 together with lower than exDected foreign aid receipts forcedth.I"e Tlreasu77f t1o resorLt 4to cesntral ban S accon-modation on a larger- scale thanL,A~ L ~ L LA) It~ I'J 11 %, .. tl .A. Q. ULAL ~I ~ L .L~J A tJi .~

originally envisaged and credit to the Government increased by 8.2 percentto D 94.)6~ L mll.U* In 1967'J grossixed investruents were cut Ao-.".. and theavailability of additional foreign resources and a compulsory public bondisusue enIu-b 'LU-d'h -11 'u Ovrnment to re'uuce 'L'bs 'LnUe'UieUlness WVl IU h WCletre" A4n.

Overall credit to the Government therefore declined by 2.5 percent to D 92.2million. Credit to the Government was planned for 1968 to stay at about thesame level as in 1967, as the Treasury deficit was expected to be covered bylarger domestic non-bank resources, principally deposits with the Treasuryfrom public enterprises. The deficit increased unexpectedly and was coveredin part by a rise in deposits with the treasury of the postal baMking systemand the social security fund.

117. Credit to enterprises and households increased at an average annualrate of i4 percent in the last four ye,ars, compared to a real GDP gro-wth of3.1 percent and a decline of real gross investment by 1.5 percent. The rapidoverall expansion of credit was partly due to the financial needs of theprivate sector, and to a large extent to the low cash generation of publicenterprises and agriculture. The structural reforms, particularly in agri-culture and trade had a significant effect on more recent financial needsbecause just before the cooperativization, enterprises and individuals usuallyliquidated stocks and withdrew cash.

118. Monetary expansion has been much faster than the growth of GDP since1961, but its inflationary effects were attenuated by other factors. Importantreasons were the continued monetisation of the agricultural sector and the in-creasing share in GDP of highly monetized sectors such as manufacturing, tour-ism and trade. However, price increases for important commodities from 1959to 1964 and from 1965 to 1968 were held in check by the Government with acomprehensive system of price controls. Generally the index of wholesale

prices rose more because of higher prices of imported goods. In the last

quarter of 1964 a 1d iun 19u 6Uc UtVe.LaLUon contributed to some increases in

prices but on the whole, prices have not been sensitive to changeb in supply.

Wages are subject to a similarly tight control and they ha-ve ncreaseud at a

slover rate than prices. However, the moderate rate of overt inflation has

probably been accompanied by some rise in prices not accounted for in theofficial index and the method used to control prices has contributed to dis-

tortions in the cost and price structure and therefore in the allocation ofresources.

119. Interest rates have been a further element in the distortion of

market mechanisms and have impeded the most economic allocation of reoources.

Interest rate policy was not used to influence overall magnitudes but measures

have been applied on a selective basis encouraging exports and equipment cre-

dits vhile penalizing imports by 0.5 to 2 points around the basic discount

rate of the Central Bank, which remained at 4 percent since 1962 and was changed

only once in 1966 to 5 percent. Official interest rates charged to enterprises

have ranged between 1.5 percent and 8 percent since 1966. However, the effec-tive cost of credit is raised considerably by the addition or commissions,

fees and the use of non-bank resources. The unrealistic approach to pricing

capital might be exemplified by 5 percent Government bonds which presently

sell on the market at a 30 percent discount.on par value. In addition to thisimplicit rate of about 7 percent for tax exempt Government securities, an in-

dication of the cost of capital might be the tourist industry which is one of

the few sectors where market forces are relevant. The average estimated rate

of return calculated in 1968 on 14 private ventures in tourism was about 20

percent. This rate seems in line with rates of return on housing where rents

are not controlled. In these circumstances it is doubtful whether the stock

exchange created in February 1969 will be in a position to fulfill its task

of mobilizing capital particularly for the larger, mostly public companies.

They have in general a very low profitability, which is illustrated by STB's

dividend return of 1.45 percent in 1966 on the book value of its equity

portfolio.

120. The declared policy of the planning authorities is that the in-

crease in the money supply should not exceed the grovth of GDP at market

prices over the Plan period. Credit to Government has been projected to

increase by an average of 5 percent per year based on the Plan estimate ofthe 1968 level. Credit to enterprises and households, which was in line

with the planned level for 1968, is expected to increase by over 10 percent

in IQ6Q and around 8 percent in subsequent years, i.e., at a considerably

lower rate than in the last four years. However, recent developments sug-

.est that these nroJections have already been overtaken by events. Mainly

as a result of larger credits to the Government than projected, the money.v1u 4vntr-0AnA hv 11 nereent in 1968 instead of less than 8 Dercent as

assumed by the nev Plan. Within credit to enterprises, the relative impor-

tancp of C 8A4t. to nlprimlti2re vill increase ranidly. According to the

Ministry of Finance's decision on extending short-term credit to agriculture,.n conse.t4- I roJeeti4n& the ftAff1riltiir-l sPc'tor'sR rnnacitv to renav

short-term credit, the outstanding amount to agriculture could grow fromabout 14 IllIon in 1968 to se 22 millio^n in 1972; during the same priodi

medium and long-term credit outstanding could increase threefold and growfrom D 18 million in 1968 to well over D 50 million in 1972. Given in additionthe planned housing program, medium and long-term credit for these purposescould grow from about D 17 million in 1968 to perhaps D 28 million in 1972.

121. On the basis of these overall estimates of future credit needs,the implication would be that credit for all other private industrial andservice activities would just about stagnate during the plan period. How-ever, past experience generally, and particularly the present financialsituation of public enterprises, new needs of rapidly expanding sectorssuch as tourism and increased credit needs of sectors where structural re-forms will be underway during the plan period suggest that important adjust-ments will have to be made. In addition there is the possibility of largertreasury deficits than currently expected, while the restrictive influenceof the balance of payments may be stronger than presently planned.

122. A number of important autonomous factors limit greatly the appli-cation and therefore the effectiveness of the instruments available to themonetary authorities. Monetary movements resulting from budgetary deficits,fluctuations in agricultural production, foreign trade and the flow of aidand foreign investments are all largely outside the control of the CentralBank. In the attempt to control secondary changes, the Central Bank there-fore reinforced direct controls after 1964. Credits are often made withoutcareful project appraisal by the banks, the lack of modern financial manage-ment within the enterprises often prevents careful diserimination betwppnsound and unsound projects, and commercial banks do not really serve as fi-nancial advisors to their customers.

123. The two largest banks, STB and BNA play a limited role in the deci-sion to grant crvedit. fonr protects AlrreAdy approved hv thp Government. The

weakness of the financial structure of the public enterprises together withtheir excessive invetments in Aduition t arreas in payments due by the stateto them have made STB's cash situation particularly critical. BNA's difficul-tiei nri 1inpite mkinlv in wide fluc-tuoAtinnnR in stari e-tl+tmr1 nreil,oti inn5

resulting in more than 40 percent of arrears of the total outstanding short-term eredits. As a consequenre, the liuidiitfy rateio eif BNA nviA RTA is

presently about 30 to 35 percent while the average liquidity ratio for alldeposit money banks is over 60 percent. An attempt 8 being made to correctthis imbalance by channeling special lending funds to STB and BNA throughon inter-bank money marke+ awn.n4d Hy +he Ctn+ral B a.-I, 4a,e 4+ appears that more basic reforms may be ne*eded to improve the situation.

1?t' LAAVD'T(' rr1DATi AUTh DA VlA rhJVI. * 'OR.IGI P J~ L. gWAJLVA

A. Trends of Goods and Services

124. Since 1960 Tunisia's foreign trade and payments have been influ-enced by a substantial expansion in public development expenditures; em-phasis on the establishment of import substituting enterprises supplemented

- 30 -

by exchange controls; alterations in economic relationships with France, her

main trading partner; declining agricultural exports since 1963: the emerg-

ence of tourism and crude oil as the two most important earners uf foreign

exchange; and a sustained rise in interest and amortization payments on

foreign debt. Throughout most of the period current account deficits have

been higher than capital inflows, and foreign exchange reserves have been

depleted. The last three years saw significant improvement, however, and in

1968 the current account deficit fell to half its 1965 level, and there was

a surDlus in the balance of payments.

125. From 1960-1964 the growth and composition of Tunisia's imports

reflected a shift in domestic expenditure policies as public sector invest-ment. including enternrises. rose from D 35 million to D 79 million. Total

imports grew at an annual rate of about 8 percent, compared with virtually

no change in the precedina ten years. Imports of capital and intermediate

goods almost doubled, increasing their share in total imports from about

43 percent to 65 pereent, Imports of finished consumer goods declined

somewhat, partly as a result of a reduction in the demand for imported

commodities by foxneigners residing in Tunisia and partlv owing to a policy

of stricter controls.

126. In September 1964, to halt the weakening of Tunisia's externalposi+ton n,d re,'al4. dnmeRtir &nd intpt-7ationAl nrices, the dinar was de-

valued 25 percent. Nevertheless, in 1965 imports in real terms remained

at about the 1964 level and continued to rise sloly through 1967. After

reaching a peak in 1965 imports of capital goods declined, in line with a

gral.di. .reduction of fixed investment; however, imports Of raw materials

and supplies rose to meet the expanding requirements of Tunisia's new in-dustries, hile poor harvests resul+ed in increased requirements for imported

food.

127. In 1968, the final year of the First Four Year Plan, there was as,ubs,tantial urop i'n merchandise imports. Capital goods imports remained

at the preceding year's level. A reduction of some 20 percent in imports of

intermediate goods was ma'de possible by a depletion of domestic stocks, but

more important by limitations on enterprise access to supplier credit, andthe substitution of domestic for foreign crude oil. Impo,ts of cereals also

decreased in response to a better harvest and a rise in domestic supply, while

imports of finished consumer goois declined as a result of the replacement of

imports by domestically produced goods, particularly textiles, and a contin-

uation of controls.

128. Tunisian exports have historically been concentrated in agricul-

ture, particularly olive oil, wine, hard wheat, and citrus; mineral ores,

especially rock phosphate, iron ore, and lead and zinc; and more recentlyphosphate fertilizer. From 1960-1964 these commodities accounted on theaverage for some 70 percent of the total value of exports. However duringthis period largely as a result of a deliberate policy, the pattern of tradebegan to change. Exports of agricultural products increased, especiallyolive oil, but overall growth in agriculture was limited by a decline in

-31 -

wheat exports and a levelling off of wine and citrus. Increases in mineralsexports were uneven, as phosphate rock production reached capacity, and ironore and fertilizers stagnated.

129. In 1965 exports declined sharply, owing in large part to thetermination in September 1964 of the financial and trade agreement withFrance. Exports to that country fell by $20 million, or approximately 15percent of total exports, the main products affected being wine, hard wheat,and preserved fruits. In the three years following 1965 merchandise exportsgrew at an annual rate of 9 percent, primarily because of the beginning ofcrude oil exports, which rose from about $8 million to some $27 million.Exports of rock phosphate, aided by the 1964 devaluation, remained levelat about 2.3 million tons, despite low productivity in the face of stronginternational competition in both price and quality. Phosphate fertilizerexpnorts declined in 1966 and then lumped in 1967 and 1968. Iron ore con-tinued a long-term decline, begun in 1960, due fundamentally to the lowquality of Tuinisian ores and the increasing availability of richer ores oninternational markets. By 1968, as a result of the growth of crude oil,-rodeiitin hbut aelRO nviing to the a-nnearance of some new industrial products

such as esparto pulp and cast iron, the share of Tunisia's traditional ex-ports had declined to 50 pereent of the totn-l Aar4e,u1tural exnorts in

constant prices for the period of the first Four Year Plan had fallen 30percent below the average level of the -receding forn -ears.

130. Ne+ foreign exchar.ge earnings from currnttansfersa Andi Pnrvue s

which had been positive in the period 1960-1962, became negative in 1963,o-wing to a dop in Oreign govern4ment expenditures in T,4 o4 ss dA toa atoin transport and insurance payments accompanying increased imports. InI U LmC_ _ _ _ .a *-gU A _'' A AA___4.I A _ -4- ;4A,, . In -_ent

to the deficit on trade, as expenditures on transport and insurance, wagesa.d sal'aries fOr tlechnicaU l ass0istDa.nce, partkAcularly teachjlers, arA invest

ment income payments rose. In 1966 and 1967 net service payments fell tosome $21 million, declining to about $15 million in 1968.

doubling from $19 million to $40 million during 1965-1968, in response tostrvog deman.d, the development of new tourist facillties, And oAfici pro-motional policies. Investment income payments, including interest on foreigndebt, also doubied during the four years, but were much smaller. I ncludingsalaries and wages for foreign technical assistance, however, net paymentsfor factor services continued to exceed net receipts from non-factuor services.

z. Trade Relations and Policies

132. In 1966 steps toward the resumption of former trade relations be-tween France and Tunisia were taken, and tariff preferences were extended tocertain products within annually agreed quotas. Tne list included fish prod-ucts, vegetables, citrus fruits, olive oil, fruit and vegetable preserves,superphosphates, and artisan products, and in addition provided for annualquotas on Tunisian wine. The Tunisian quota for preferential imports oflisted products from France was relatively small, and quotas opened to other

- 32 -

countries were not reduced. A series of trade agreements with some forty-three other countries provide the basis for Tunisia's remaining exports andimports.

133. On March 28, 1969 Tunisia signed an Agreement of Association,limited to trade relations, vith the European Economic Community. TheAgreement is to last five years, but according to the protocol, by the endof the third year negotiations to cover non-commercial aspects (capital andlabor) could be concluded. The underlying rationale of the agreement is tocompensate Tunisia for losses which would result from the application ofcertain provisions of EEC Regulations requiring France to end preferencesto Tunisia on various products after mid-1969. For products not specifiedin the Agreement French preferences may remain in effect. The most impor-tant excluded products are wine, fish products, cork and cork products andenergy products regulated by the European Coal and Steel Community.

134. The Agreement provides that industrial products originating inTunisia wil. be granted full intra-community treatment, i.e. may be importedinto the Community duty free and without quantitative restriction. Theprinciple with respect to agricultural products is to avoid a disruptionof markets as presently organized under the Common agricultural nolicv.Thus instead of competitive advantages the Agreement provides for financialbenefits in the form of rebates, which will particularly benefit citrus andolive oil.

135. With respect to concessions granted by Tunisia, French preferenceson listed products have been ended and 70 percent of the tariff nrefPreneeRformerly accorded to France have been extended to all EEC countries. Quotasequivalent to the actual annual level of imports from EEC countries wereestablished on the basis of trends during the past three years, and Tunisia'sonly formal commitment is not to discriminate agalnat the EEC in etstblishing

quotas.

136. Within this framework of commercial agreements, in order to protect^r~pt1r industry and - i-- ' to Tuninia tight foreIgn exchnge position,

the authorities exercise direct controls over foreign trade and payments.Oii.tk 4+t_xiir v.at,itinns A*- applied n1iaA +to impnorsa, and Lt4+hn4v ari4 o,us q as

both import licenses and foreign exchange payment authorizations are re-qired%&. TIo-+s Of' c-ap+it on Intiermediate goods hae histortically re-%L-. __ - __ ~~~~- a.... eV **J. ..ji *~.JL C

ceived priority, but both are controlled directly through a system whichn..4 I" ..a* A &.fLO WA X , FA vOv aA- .4 1%%,..C.. C A_ JeA 4W _ _J

v w s ^ W e . VU A.yo. o4& wJS y vv v s F v S v J J w . D _UAU.L. 0 a.IL WJJL I.A UpIU c U

foreign source of finance. Mass consumption goods are imported directly bya single Ue.JV=LUAIUI eLt %,LA= tUhe^sianU VILce oAl Cl-UmcBrcL (0. importduties, levied principally for revenue purposes, range from 5 percent to10 percent or. capital and intermediste goods and from 30 percent to 50 per-cent on consumer goods.

137. Export licenses are also required, and with minor exceptionsforeign exchange receipts must be declared and repatriated within specifiedperiods of time. Most commodities are now exported by public or quasi-public entreprises and agencies. Government offices export the main agri-cultural commodities, and public entreprises or groups of entreprises export

- 33 -

the largest share of processed goods. The Government is now considerini, areorganization of those exportin& sectors not included in this system, mostimportantly preserved foods and handicrafts.

138. At present there appears to be some inconsistency in export policy,which might be explained by the priority civen to nroduction for the localmarket as well as the need to expand revenue. Thus a special tax of 10 Der-cent initiated after the devaluation to prevent 4indfall profits has beenmaintained on exports of cork and salt, and of 15 percent on exports of rockphosphates, meallur&ieI owres, scra,p iron and raw lead. On the other handrebates on the turnover tax are accorded to some exports, for example foodnronducts, although procedures arre said +o be slo.t. Direct govern.ent subsidiesto exporters are apparently not accorded, but some public entreprises havedif4erential prices for +heir products on the domestic and international "Uar-ket; lower interest rates are applied on credit for export purposes; and in-vestment is favored in export=oriented activities.

139. The Four vYear Plan euInIvis aees a Ar.ber oI st eps. dto providefurther encouragement to exuorts including a simplification of administrativepro ced'uares, a laength,ening of the mandatoryi period L0or It.he repmatriation OfexDort proceeds, and the provision of insurance against risks of default or

exchanbe LIt ,aisin.L 'Fu n d am,entally, hLow-ever, gro-w-t' in uin's'an ex-ports will depend on achieving productivity increases, maintaining competi-tive costs ald prices, and providing suitable incentives to initiate orexpand export activities. Improvements in these areas may be difficult toachieve under the present system of direct administrative intervention.

- 34 -

Table

SUMMARY OF THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS(millions of dollars)

1968 19691965 1966 1967 Provi- Economic 1970 1972

sional BudgetGoods and Eervices,

net -135.3 -100.6 -104.8 -46.3 -58.5 -81.2 -63.6Factor income payment,

net -23.2 -27.1 -38.1 -42.1 -43.8 -43.1 -48.2Interest payments (-8.4)(-11.6)(-15.2)(-1T.1) (-19.1) (-20.0)(-23.8)

Current Trtnsfers 4.8 5.0 9.0 12.0 12.4 11.8 11.8Total on Ci,rrent Account-153.7 -122.7 -133.9 -76.4 -89.9 -112.5 -100.0Debt Amortization -25.0 -29.9 _44.4 _-149.3 -52.4 -52.1 -56.0Private Capital 81.5 63.2 63.6 53.1 46.5 51.4 37.0Direct Investment/a 31.4 30.3 18.3 13.7 19.1 17.5 11.2Medium term credit 50.1 33.0 45.3 39.4 27.4 33.9 25.7

Public capital 92.6 64.8 99.8 84.4 107.3 134.3 130.5GratR 29.0 15.4 20.4 23.2 29.0 20.2 19.1

Loans 67.6 49.3 79.6 61.2 82.3 114.1 111.4Short term movements/b -1.9 9.0 3.2 - - -

Change in reserves/c 7.0 15.6 11.6 -11.6 -11.4 -21.4 -11.4

/a Including credit for petroleum research.,Jb ITnf-l tdi nu anti nmd iuiA nnn -/c (-) indicates increase.Source: Tsbhle 060 in Anneyi

C. Foreg4n ranjtal Inflow, rlht Andi rApbt Service

1 IOA '1a4 c forel,,a . .v4

cspio 4i, 1.:,.lo s -. ii s a..,'ubli ,li,w4 drng +he p.P+

Four Year Plan amounted to $343 million, or about $18 per capita per year.Gts.r..t*s, m we i ,a r I t aA fmAstus a tfshn.-iA 4^al assit annc a nted ftor about

a quarter of public capital inflows; disbursements on loans to financepJecta represented 40 perce.et; a.nd program l0an8 ardL ce.dlia tsfor Aimporlts

of agricultural commodities accounted for the remainder. Half of totaldlsbursementI s o pua wic j 10JC c.e If omL thae Unite States, about 2, per-

cent from Western Europe, principally West Germany, France, and Italy, and25 percen't from international organizatiuos ad other sourc-es, mainly Kuwait.

141. In 1965 the deficit orn current account had been higher than expectedand public capital inflows were lover. Foreign private borrowing, principallyin the form of supplier credit to finance public entreprise investments, washigh, but in addition medium term foreign credit was utilized by the adminis-tration for budgetary purposes. in the following year the current accountdeficit was less but again shortfalls were experienced in disbursements onpublic foreign loans. As entreprise investment declined, supplier creditfinancing was reduced, but the remaining gap was financed by further re-course to financial credit and a substantial decline in reserves. In 1967

both public and private foreign capital inflows rose but were insufficientto finance the current account deficit. In 1968 public capital inflows le-clined substantially, mainly as a result of difficulties in the utilizationof program loans. However, the Tunisian authorities managed to nold meditumterm foreign borroving to a minimum and to limit imports further, with theresult that there vas an increase in foreign exchange reserves.

142. Credits and investments ror petroleum exploration attained leveisof $25 million during 1965 and 1966 and declined to $10.5 million in 1968,as exploration activities sloved down. Direct investments fell steadilyfrom $6 million in 1965 to $3.2 million in 1968. The principal direct in-vestments made during the period were in housing, pipeline expansion, tour-ism, a tire factory and metals working activities.

143. The principal change from the past four years concerns the natureof disbursements on public loans. The Plan projects an increase of over 50percent in disbursements on enterprise project loans from 1968 to 1969, andan average annual level of about $60 million from 1970-72, i.e., three timesaverage Annual disbursements during the past plan period. Disbursements onnon-project loans are expected to be about at the same level as in the past.

144. Tunisia8s outstanding foreign debt, excluding undisbursed, aboutdoubled from the end of 1964 to the end of 1968, rising from $234 millionto $510 million. Debt of public origin rose from $130 million to $330 mil-lion while debt of private origin, including commercial, supplier, and fi-nancial credits rose from $105 million to $175 million. At the end of 1968public and private enterprises accounted for about 70 percent of the totalindebtedness due to foreign private sources.

Outstanding Debt at Year EndDisbursed only

(in millions of dollars)

Actual Provisional Plan1964 1968 1972

Due to Public SourcesBy enterprises 44.6 97.0 263.1By central Government 85.5 231.8 399.1

Due to Private SourcesBy enterprises 77.9 126.1 123.1Rv central Government 25.9 55.8 49.3

TOTAL 233.9 510-7 834.6

Source: S.E.P.E.N.

- 36 -

145. The heavy burden of service payments resulting from medium termforeign private borrowing led the Tunisian authorities to institute con-trols over enterprise borrowing abroad and to establish a ceiling on newcommitments. However, interest and amortization payments due to foreignprivate sources climbed from $27 million to $46 million over the period,while debt service due to foreign governments and international organiza-tions rose from $8 million to $41 million. This year, in the context ofthe most recent standby agreement with the IMF, Tunisia decided to limitnew borrowing with maturity from 1-10 years to amounts inferior to repayments.

146. The increase in capital inflows projected by the Plan would resultin an estimated $320 million rise in indebtedness, due entirely to foreignpublic sources. Debt due to foreign private sources would be only slightlyreduced, implying that new private borrowing would be about equal to repay-ments. Some private credits may, however, have maturities longer than 10years. The rapid rise in enterprise debt of foreign public origin is ex-plained to some extent by the creation of new entities, e.g. in the fieldOf water supply, and by increased project loans to enterprises.

Service Payments on Foreign Debt(in millions of dollars)

Actual Provisional Plan1965 1968 1972

Due to Public SourcesTnterest 3.4 8.0 11.4-Amortization 4.8 13.0 23.6

Due to Private Sourcesinterest 5.0 Q.1 12.4Amortization 20.2 36.4 32.4

TOTAL 33.4 66.5 79.8

Source: S.E.P.E.n.

147. Maintenance of controls over new medium term foreign private bor-rowing is critical and will help to prevent a further increase in Tunisia'sdebt service burden during the next four years. Even if such controls aremaintained, however, it is estimated by the Bank that debt service chargesof the Government (publicly held and publicly guaranteed debt) will risefrom about $60 million in 1968 to $80 million in 1972, representing 24 percentof current receipts from goods and services in that year. Moreover, thelonger term outlook is that Tunisia will have a substantial debt serviceburden for many years to come. Over half of Tunisia's outstanding debt isdue in the ten years folloving 1972, while between 1968 and 1972 totaloutstanding debt is projected to increase by 60 percent. The TunisianGovernment is aware of its debt service situation and intends to hold newforeign private medium term borrowing below repayments during the coming

- 37 -

four years of the Plan. Fundamentally, however, a reduction in the burdenof debt on the Tunisian economy vill be achieved not only by improvementin the terms and conditions of finance but mainly by success in achievinghigher export .owth.

VII. PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS

148. mLT I..4e P ar .1 -B, A to be one of consolidation, but the agBregat-e pro-~ ±U r.LLA F JL Q~L Mi'. - ' .* -, - 0 In r-

jection generally reflects higher public sector investments, further compres-Sion of consumption goos impots, and more reliance on o.ei. ca-ital thanin the past. With respect to the sectoral allocation of investment it appearsappropria;te that priority 'be giver. t1o agriculture, alkhaough th.ere is da-ngerthat a dispersion of efforts through structural reforms will tend to offsetthe anticipated benefits from the investment progra. Investments in transportare largely economically justified, but achievement of planned targets willdepend on the progress of projects to be financed from public foreign sources,and in view of past experience bottlenecks can be expected. The principaldifficulty, however, is likely to arise from the heavy outlays forecast inmining and manufacturing, as costs may be higher than estimated, while bene-ffits may be delayed or overestimated. Tne Tunisian authorities are aware of

these possibilities, but as in the past, the impetus to realize planned un-dertakings may prevent decisions from being based on thorough appraisal ofthe risks involved.

149. From the viewpoint of domestic financing, the planned 21 percentannual grovth in government savings from 1969-1972 seems optimistic, quiteapart from the doubling of government savings anticipated this year. The9 percent growth in savings of identified enterprises may also be high, al-though the residual private, cooperative and household saving could beachieved through higher growth in tourism, petroleum and agriculture. Animportant factor in the balance between the creation and use of savings islikely to be the greatly accelerated program of structural reforms. Thefinancial effect of the decision to proceed in 1969 with nationwide reformsin the agricultural sector was not fully evaluated in the Plan. If fullyimplemented it would clearly increase credit requirements with uncertain re-sults on the production side.

150. The level and direction of production depend largely on the appli-cation of policies to increase efficiency, enlarge markets, and improve in-centives in industry and agriculture, as discussed in the preceding paragraphs.Many of the prospects mentioned could change quite considerably, depending onthe extent and direction of changes in economic policies. Basing economicand human progress on the principle of personal responsibility need not implythe neglect of market forces. The example of the tourist boom provides ampleevidence of the Tunisian economy's response to forces and opportunities ofthe market.

- 38 -

151. Direct intervention and control by the Government have beeji t.L.ma4n instruments of economic policy and indirect econoic policy measur:to guide consumption and production, savings and investment are unly graau;i]Jsbeing applied. P ---si^ es for maj -or ar-udities a, eatabishedr on a ; e t--ionable cost plus basis, while interest rates in combination with the direct

sllcstozof -redt amounts reflect mainl- the oe.mn'prriesn~~~ ~ i.J UAV%&JU %,JAA. L.V. U&"O.LLJA.L U14= ~1.Y1 UL1 J LI L i n~Ithe allocation of financial resources and bear little or no relationshipW.L.1.41 Wie. U=IUU5.AU. JIJL U.LLL ba LL I UJF~.Jv ViJ L±UJJU= O.UL L;CJ.LkIa6. * ILILAU±L ~ LC IZ0_.JK LUI

improvement in these areas, but it is likely that direct controls by the Gov-er en'J will reu.in the pr'Unc *LpaL ULk;D.u.MitAu iUr ±mU±-iVI1JZ rLL, L P*JJ.LLL.

during the next four years.

152. With regard to prospects for the balance of payments, the 15 per-cent increase forecast this year ie rather optimistic, but the u percentrate of growth in exports of goods and services projected from 1969-1972appears achievable. Projections of agricultural exports seem realistic,although variations in rainfall can be of considerable importance. Short-falls in exports of minerals and chemicals are probable towards the end ofthe Plan, but these could be offset by better performance in other processedgoods under the stimulus of association with the Common Market and by a mod-erately higher expansion in tourism. Reflecting official priorities, con-sumption imports are expected to decline from earlier levels, while importsof capital goods are projected to rise at an annual rate of 11 percent.Imports of intermediate goods are expected to rise by o percent per yearafter 1969, compared with average annual grovth of about 12 percent from1960-67. Moreover, the compression of consumption imports may make insuffi-cient allowance for growth in tourism demand, and adversely affect productionincentives in other sectors. Even if capital inflows attain the projectedlevel, pressures to increase imports could prevent the expected improvementin reserves. The estimate of capital inflows is itself somewhat optimisticsince projected public capital inflows of D 266 million are some 45 percenthigher than aggregate public inflows of D 180 million realized in the perioa1965-1968.

153. In 1969 the deficit on current account may thus be higher tnananticipated. In the following two years an important determinant of thedeficit on current account is likely to be the level of capital goods im-ports, which in turn will depend largely on inflows of foreign financialassistance. Although the projects and sources of finance have in large partbeen identified, the pace of implementation implied by the Plan could proveto be too optimistic. Moreover, in view of recent difficulties ehcounteredin the utilization of program loans, shortfalls in disbursements of thiscategory could also occur.

154. Thus in looking toward the problem of financing investment,experience would suggest the possibility of shortfalls in disbursementson foreign public aid. Improved analysis and control may permit some ad-justments in fiscal policy, but the possibilities in this respect are lim-ited and the main burden of adJustment, if the need for it occurs, mustfall on the public investment program. If the detailed preparation and

- 39 -

implementation of projects has often been defective, it has to be recog-nized that impressive progress has been made in recent years in this re-sDect. Further improvements could also encourage the flow of foreign pub-lic assistance and to the extent that viable investment projects are putforvard such assistance need not be restricted to foreign exchange.

155. Service payments on public external debt waounting to 24 percentof foreign exchanme earnings from exports of goods and services in 1968

are high, and it is doubtful whether the ratio can be brought down by 1972nB proieeted in the Plan. The extent to which this vill be possible in the

coming years will depend partly on the level and the terms and conditions offuture borrowing but more snignilflantlv on Ruccess in aehievina exnort growth.

STATISTICAL ANNEX

EXTERNAL DEBT

1. Erternal medjim and long term public debt outstandingincluding undiwburseQ as of Dieoer 3v 19 v 0 (c pag/)

2. Eatizaatd contractual service payments due in future onexternal laiw and lang ter debt outstanding includingu3disbursed as of December 31 1o9. (14 page)

POPULATION

3. Ten year population trend (1958-1968) and populationprojection (1 968-1986).

4. Three development plan population projection 1966-1986.

5. Age and sex diatribution of the population for selectedyears.

6. Projection of the TuLisian populatiom by age group.

7* Percentage of couples in the fertile age group neceasaryto achieve the reduction in the birth rate forecast inalternative 3.

8. Labor force (unemploymet included) by sector of activityfor selected years.

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

9. Mwenditure on cro3s national product 1960-1972.

10. Gross dmastic product by sectoral origin 1960-1972(in current prices).

11i Gross domestic product by sectoral origin 1960-1972(in 1966 tirices).

12. Thc finance of investlients 1965-1972.

13: arnAm fi{ed capltal formation by sector 1960-1972

14, U rtnrri-4 sgross fixed canita1 formation 1965-1972.

15 n nA neAl gonvrrmiant grogs fixed capital fonnatton 1965-1972.

-2

PRINCIPAL SECTORS

Education

16. Primary education enrollments 1962/63 - 1968/69.

17. Secondary education enrollments 1963/63 - 1968/69.

18. Higher education enrollments 1962/63 - 1968/69.

19. Primary education enrollment projections 1968/69 - 1972/73.

20. Secondary education enrollment projections 1968/69 _ 1972/73.

21. Higher education enrollment projections 1968/69 - 1972/73.

22. Recurrent education expenditure 1960/1965 - 1969.

23. Projections of recurrent education expenditure 1968/69 - 1979/80.

24. Gross fixed investbent In education 1960/1965 - 1969.

Agrlcu1ture

25. Agriculture In the national ecooomy 1960-1972.

26. Agricultural production in quantity 1965-1972.

27* Agricultural production in value 1965-1972.

28* Structur of agricultural production 1960-1972.

29. Fertilizers imports 1960-1968.

30. Estimate of dcmgstic consumption of fertilizers.

31* Agricultural investment of central Government 1965-1968and tntal 1969-1972.

32. aTdintfl aiti nn nf contra-I (lovArrmnt nraiects for agriculture1969-1972.

33. Agricultural Investment allocation 1969-1972.

34. Agricultural producing enterprises cash flow 1961-1972.

35. Eterprise agricultural projects and their financing 1969-1972.

Industry

36. Gross fixed capital formation in manufacturing 1965 - 1972.

37. Capital transactions of non-financial enterprises 1965-1972.

38. Investmnt project description in mining and manufacturing1969-1972.

Tourism

39. Historical data and Plan projections of tourism growth1962-1972.

Transport

40 Traffic Statistics 1962-1968.

h1. Investments in the transport sector 1965-1972.

PUBLIC FINANCE

42. General Government-savings 1965-1972.

43. General Government - Capital account 1965-1972.

44. General Government - Functional classification of publicexpenditure 1 960-1969.

45. Swuary of central Government operations 1964-1972.

46. Central Government current expenditure 1964-1969.

4L7 Central Government current revenue 1960-1969.

MONEY. CREDIT AID PRICES

h8* Develomnent indicators of money and credit 1961-1972.

I9. Structure of deposit money banks 1961-1967.

50. Monetarv survey 1961-1972.

*1 Drnmsti-c Zredit nutstanding 196h-1 972.

52'. Faifnms A'fActin' mnn v rninnlv 1962-1Q72=

53. Price 4diceS and wage ni datnr 1962-1969.

FOREIGN TRADE AND BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

514. Foreign trade and net services 1Q50-1O72.

55. Export values 1960-1972.

56. Imports value 1960-1972.

57. Exports of selected commodities 1 0(r)-19 72.

5. Geographical distribution of Tunisia's imports 1 ,1-i-I If

59. Geographical distribution of Tunisia's exports 1961-1 -

60. Balance of payments 1 965-1 968.

61. Balance of payments, plan projections 1969-1972.

62. Balance of payments - services and current transfers1965-1968.

63. Balance of payments - services and current transfersFour Year Plan projections 1969-1972.

64. Medium and long-term capital inflows 1965-1972.

65. Foreign grants in aid 1965-1972.

66. Disbursements on public loans 1965-1972.

67. Service paymnts on foreign debts 1965-i972.

68. Foreign assets and liabilities at end of the vear 1 )t-_1

nDPhAATT7A1 rTn" fJAWM n' IFT frTqALT (DV]WJ-J z | .L.L t QJ~JJL;tL -J. A UL | sAJ\JJ LJ.M I- ± I-)

Table 1: TTN1LA _ EXTEAL PTRLTLC DOIBT OAT1TTANDNT AS OF D-;D(ER 31; 1968 J1

VL..bL A. B - I un

(nLI I,LLUuUiW ow '3 .U o^ .J IUAL

Debt Outstanding

Source $ LDsursed Incluon3r unibur.ed

TOTALEXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT !L50.920 611,324

Privately held debt 53,398 165&875PXiblc1lv_4am_*d bonrvn l6a1 2;et1Suppliers 623

Belgium 1,006 1,006Dlnmark 62 62Frnoe 42,451 50,05°Glerav y (Fed. Rep. of) 4;673 6,060Italy 11,338 1.1,953Sweden 5,521 8,398Switzerland 1,527 1,527United Kingdom l:5R l,598United States 1,1402 1,1402Other. 243

Financial Institutions 80.828 80 828Franeve 6a8B6 nItaly 62,185 62,185Netherlands 6,381 6,381United Kingdom 14,202 4,202UnitAed Stattes 1,250 1,250

Privately-placed bonds 70 70

Loans from international organizations 22,930 68,667African Development Bank - 2,750IBRD 13,048 42,o54LuA 9,882 23,863

Loans from governments 274,592 376,782

Austria 2a572 9572Canada 401 29,405Czechalova A 81 AlDenmark 2,932 3,200France 641,007 714,935Germany (Dem. Rep, of) 1,338 1,338flarmanv (Faui. Ra. n9) 1 9,202 57,3714Italy 19,200 19,200Kuwait 36j293 %o_ARRLibya 3,34 31434Nether3ian4 5149 1 ,381Poland 11386Si.mjan -,07sQUnited Statea 106,765 148,835uS S .R 13,580 15-01,2YuRoslavia

SMe footnote at end of tabli.

Table 1: TUNISIA - EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDINO AS OF DECEMER 31. 1968 /h (CONT.)

Page 2

/1 Debt rlth an oiglial or extended maturity of over one year.

Statistical Services DivisionEconomics Dpartmnt

June 18, 1969

Table 2: TUNISIA - EST3ATE;D FUTUHF SERVICE PAY-IWTS O-N rTERNAL ruIBLIC uBTOUT5TANDINO INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DECEMBER 31, 1968

Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency

(In thousands of U.S. dollars) Page 1

DEBT OUTSTCIEC1N or PR1ion PAVYMENTS OURING PEpfnn

INCLUDING AMORTIYEAR UNDISOURSED ZATION INTEREST TOTAL

TOTAL EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

1969 5780715 40o766 13.566 62.3341970 529#9sn 40.81 14*249 't.0901971 l89o109 36.861 13.069 49,93Q1972 452*246 *0*140 1177 rr1s 91

1973 412.108 34t7o5 10 163 4*93819r7 377AA33 2960!9 a6,61 *eAe91975 347.724 27.050 7.963 35.0 11976 3202674 23.79! .3k0 31. ro

1977 2906J83 23.099 6.866 29.9661976 273.78* 21*969 6.531 20.50017g9 251,815 21,317 6.345 276 621980 230*49A 19*267 A,74 25;0::1901 211.231 16.447 5.174 23.6211962 192PT8* 16,67 4.617 24129A1983 176.105 12P855 4.130 a60964

Note: Includes service on all debt listed in Table 1 prepared June 1B, 1969with the exception of the following, for which repayinnt terms arenot available:

Suppliers $12,919,000Financial institutions 5$,000 000Loans from governments

France 30046,000U.S.S.R. 36,000Yugoslavia 1,472,000Total $32,473,000

Statistical Services DivisionEconomics Department

June 18, 1969

ubI 2: TUN1i3 -W STDIUD irurutu SERyVICE PAIT5 ON EMTRNAL PUBLIC DETOUTSTANDIND INCLMDIN UNDISBU1SED AS OF DECEMBER 31 1968 (cONT.)

Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency

(In thousands of U.S. dollar.) Page 2

DEBT OUTSTCSEGIN OF PERIOD) PAYMENTS DURING PERIOD

INCLUDING AMORTI'YEAR UNDISSURSED ZATION INTEREST TOTAL

PRIVATELY-HELO 0EST-

1969 137#958 23.485 6.750 30.2341970 114*473 20.028 5,575 25.603I9sri 94445 19P354 4.672 24,0261972 75.090 20.841 3.737 24.5781973 54.250 15m896 2,59? 18,4931974 38.354 9.821 1.T79 11.6001975 28*532 7.489 1.262 6.7511976 21.044 3.693 936 4.8291977 17S151 3.378 753 4l 311978 13*772 3.20? 594 3.80119T9 105.65 2*811 442 3.2531960 ?*754 2.4?a 316 2.7941961 5.276 2.244 210 2.4541962 3*032 2.240 114 2.3541983 792 120 41 161

PUBLICLYOISSUEn 8ONOS

1969 2.631 220 144 3641970 2.411 232 132 3641971 2.g179 246 11 8 3641972 1,933 260 104 3641973 t.673 272 60 31974 1.402 223 73 2961975 1.176 236 An 2°71976 942 186 47 23519Y inn 144 36 180197e 610 152 28 1801979 458 10 20 1231960 356 50 14 651961 05 49 12 6'11962 256 45 10 561963 211 4?7 A 5

Table 2: TUNISIA - ESTIKATED FUTURE SERVICE PAYNTS ON EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBTOUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEODIBER 31, 1968 (CONT.)

Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency

(In thousands of U.S. dollars) Page 3

DEBY OUTST(BEGIN Or PECIOD) PAYMENTS DURING PERrOO

INCLUDING AMORTI*YEAR UNDISBURSED ZATION INTEREST TOTAL

PRIVATELY-NELO DEBT

SUPPLIERS

1969 69P428 15'877 39364 19'2411970 539552 12,819 2.s65 15p4761971 40#733 10.513 2.1o0 12,6201972 30.220 9,652 1P626 11,2781973 20,567 8.P600 1 100 9,roo1974 11966 5,347 604 5*9501975 6#621 3,404 304 3,o781976 3,217 1.006 157 1.1631977 2#211 535 113 6481978 1.676 411 90 5011979 1,265 411 68 4781980 854 392 45 4371981 462 231 24 2551982 231 231 10 241

FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

1969 65,8028 7383 3o237 1096201970 58.444 6P972 2,782 9,754197t 5i9473 8,591 2.442 11.0331972 42,882 10#923 2.004 12P92?£9W'3 3,v59 7*oi9 1.405 0R42419;4 24,940 4.245 1*100 5.344

F9S5 20o695 38*42 f96 4.7381976 16,854 2,692 731 3.4221977 14i162 2.692 602 3,294,1978 11,47O 2#637 474 3.1121r9 o.633 2#289 354 2P643

1980 6,544 2,036 257 2.2921 iyg 4P509 1.964 l?3 Z#'371982 2545 1.964 94 2.057i90 n582 73 33 105

a -.5 COb all 0b 9 Ci 0 c 41p W v - Q 4 la 1r- 09.

4 * I I4it CNPSOhCoM. t-lb-anz VW tl -c o, onv in*Cin 't P... c - a ,P-Wlin

r4~~~~~ ~~~ in a k6o P n fleneb-in on eom Coo.FEr .C i#* * I- 'S

a CkCDl In 0 . w9. VInP...0)lw oh e.0 O 40 A*X S 8 - WSZ - m dt e o N -f-4 v PS- an l pp 4.o n e e* 1 ew eoP*10CC

aa a, a a O - itat_a _aaIL04 9NNNN

b- .4 C-

; ° g ̂ b-WZWiJ t. b0tVtfl4r0irIflwle g i_O_* mOweftoOb Oit Ceifla N

1-4 Ch4 40 a

A 4 0 : ce,.cm oe nn w 40eN'8 cI P * e tmm V nM 'e'e "MA wnef

C *rolocb..

S S i tM ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~0 fh- I. r^, N. 41. . h.~ thl tO, r b *vb*^**t1_ w w *e1..P w.s._ eWAe nn we we ween.e.w

Table 2s TUNSIA -1STUTEW D FUTURE SERVICE PADOI ON EXTERNL PUBLIC METOULi-oANHu±J lrJWUJAI UNUISBUiFZD AS OF DiCEMER 31 196 A (CONT.)g

Debt Jepayabie in Foreign Currency

(in thousand of U.S. do3lars) Page 5

DEBT OUTBT(BEGIN OF PERIOD) PAYMENTS DURING PERIOD

INCLUDING AMORTI'YEAR UNDISBUNSED ZATION INTEREST TOTAL

IDANS FRC? IT2ERNATIORAL ORGANITIONS

AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK

j969 2,r730 8 o1970 2P750 * 3* 381971 2rs50 - 69 691972 2,o750 99 991973 2J750 89 130 2191974 2P661 I?T 131 3081975 2.484 177 122 2991976 2P306 1T? 113 2911977 2,129 1T7 104 2821978 1,952 ITr 95 2731979 1774 1T7 86 2641960 1*597 1T? r6 25519,1 1*419 177 69 2461962 1*242 ITT 60 2371983 1*065 177 51 228

r BRD

16 42*054 316 1.10`4 iJ9'0197o 41,738 785 1.419 2P20419ri 40.953 i.549 1.12 3.26119T2 39*404 2767r 1.77r 4*554i; -o 3 36P6F ;3.172 1.645 4,8i7r19T4 33.465 3 i99 1.448 4064719qr 3O.266 2*891 1.233 4;1441976 27*375 2,432 1*082 3.514

jurr £IVO~~~~~~~ 9~42 3.00,ssir ~~24*943 2 0,5 v4 ;*01978 22.878 1.953 1*096 3.0490vv9 2u92.5 1.865 1.2i1 3.1161980 19J060 1.754 1.144 2.8981961 17.306 1.791 1.032 2.6231902 15.515 1.859 929 2.788iV3 13.656 1iJ935 815 2i750

2, ~ ~~~ ~~~~ ~ ~~~~~~ in | in t- Po7 P we in OM - 4o c in r4MI | Ch o M os o -D IE in f~ -W Io- -0 -r0¢~~~~ ~ ~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~ mo a, OM ON m p -- _-Oin -O4 41 4 SOD 40 40 ( 4t ,00 ._O 10' 10 lgk iR* oJ : nNNNeeee ZnD JO) {1 qp IC in Cy p* Cp Me IC le 4 A"

r-i ff t^

| ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Me in °p m 8 -4 .,O1D nl P- ,n' 4r 4w Po CP Po- 4p la 4, 2'tft

s~~~~~~~~i w o : Sez z o @Fe otbc r*ow>>o >c 1 o*> "am, mg nec e o-t

04 % R c N tw4 r 4- ffi . r m |; W * z ,D 9 Or 1D 10 4 P O 4 -4 w 0|! m a M 11, 3- I z oc ,0 Nk In _WM VDt 4w _MI IV PI CM To ,

>1~~~~~~~i w Co -J t_ cm ok 4 Po D3 in g NDv_to; 40 qr Cm D <0 tl Nr Os1~~~~~ e. La Zo# 0 le 10 le f" 4w 4* 0 o cm D 4p C we 0 4 0 ^ *, 1 *, t, c2 to 4*, cm Me MG *^E~~~~ :> IL ti wt 40 de go 40 to Fs P. go v%w P) wen so4 90 el tS6 -b^r*t>t *

1! X Z Z O j~~~~~~~~~~~~c cm tt cm eV cm OM" Cy otru Nt N cm cm cm CYq 4dr Ohl we OL s.. D 4w co we OP lo D in 4F)|; 1^,_ _zZ .

w Ss~~~~~~0 ob3 %* tV t" at i PM- N oh 0 -o CU Ms a, tW 040 0 1 wW P .c . o0 Oh. o CV OPP~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~10 11.^ PoM N. _% _k _h. _o _o _b _PI v '_ W a _l 11% _k. ft. _ . lb- 11_1 IW- _4 OD _) *e _

Table 2: T?UN!3IA - lBTllTED FUTURE SERVICE PAIXERTS ON EXTERNAL PUlBIC DEBTOUTSTANDIN? INCLUDI UNDISBURSED AS OF DECU4BER 31, 1968 (CONT.)

Debt Repayable in Foreig Currcy

(In thousands of U.S. dollare) Page 7

- o~~EBT OUTST (BEGIN OF PERIOM) PAYMENTS DURING PERIOn

INCLUDING AMORTI YEAR UNDIS9URSED ZATION INTEREST TOTAL

LOANS FROM GOVERNMENTS

AUSTRIA

1969 2*572 343 148 4911970 2P229 343 128 4o719T1 10886 343 107 4501972 1,543 343 87 4301973 1.200 343 66 4091974 857 343 4 38919T5 514 343 26 3661976 171 171 177

t"AMAnA

1969 2 04 051970 2o405 U-

1971 2.4051972 2.*4051973 2P4051974 2o405 ' - '1975 2*405 -1976 2.4051977 2,405 -1978 2,405 30 * 301979 2#375 60 do1980 2.315 60 ' 601961 2#255 60 A n01982 2.195 60 ' 601963 2o134 60 - 60

T6U-b 2t1 TLuIMA - rWLji0tcd:, ruiuzELD 0.nV.1 rAIz'LnEd1Q Un O'd riuuu, ruP'VD-J- VCJ1

OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DECEMBER 3 1D 1968 (COv ., )

Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency

(In thousandB of U.S. dollars) Page 8

DEBT OUTSTCOERIN Of PERIOD) PAYMENTS DURING PERIOD

INCLUDING AMORTI*YEAR UNDISOURSED ZATION INTEREST TOTAL

LOANS FROM GOVERNmENTS

CZECHOSLOVAKIA

1969 81 S5 2 571970 26 26 1 27

DENMARK

1969 3'200 - 451970 3D200 1t0 52 15919ii 3D093 10? 4. 0 5lS1972 2D98? 240 44 2841973 2, 47 240 39 27919T4 2507 240 35 2T519r5 2 r26T 240 31 2gi19T6 2D02T 240 27 267i977 a,r3r 240 22 2621978 I 5 4T 240 18 25819T9 1*307 240 i4 2541900 1D067 240 10 250

1981 627 240 5 2451962 s87 187 1 1881963 400 133 - 133

Table 2: TUNISIA - ETIKATED FUTU SERVICE PAYMEINT ON ETEAL PUBLIC DMTOUTSTANDINa INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DECEIBER 31, 1968 (CONT.)

Dbt Repayable in Foreign Currency

(In thousands of U.S. dollars) Page 9

DEBT OUTST(BEGIN Or PERIOD) PAYMENTS DURING PERIOD

INCLUDING AMORT!.YEAR UNDISSURSED ZATION INTEREST TOTAL

LOANS FROM GOVERNMENTS

FRANCE

1909 71#752 5*934 1.640 7.5731 90o 65 618 0667r5 18666 68#4319T1 59.144 4.694 1,670 6o36519s2 54.449 4.593 1.537 4.13019?3 *9.856 5. 1*4 1.4t2 6.55619T4 44*712 5.269 102?4 6.54319T5 39.444 4P624 12136 5.7601976 34.020 4.730 1.011 5.Y40!977 30.090 4.441 889 5.32919T8 25.649 4.107 l7T7 4.8841979 21"542 4216t 661 4,6281960 17.375 4.159 545 4*.0419f1 '3.216 3#50n 43t 3.9381982 9WI10 3.326 326 3.6551963 6.381 2.?7t 221 2#937

GERMANY (DEm. REP b'F)1909 1.336 246 13 2591970 1,093 246 11 2561971 647 134 10 14419T? 714 134 13 14719T3 580 9r 15 1121974 463 97 IT 11419T5 366 97 20 I171976 269 97 as 120197T 192 96 26 1221978 96 96 29 125

5 t O J <F~~~~~~~~~~~~~P Ck -w* win > o, i- o0 1D Of COk 1D q- O0 0O 4 Op on 01 on in ti or on on on ore~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~W 4ir P, _. In r ,A 41 on V e.* c*4 C in *D O O0 '0 4W CN Po P_ 0- 1_ 16 t- Ik, @11, P_ V

6~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~N 4 D CWOh OD aD OP *t f> CD O O ID D O- OF) 40 GD *D O *D OD *D O D 0 go_ O ^ 4 * , % rF * 3 04 % b 41 L Ik % 'ML a

ch 0

i @ O s~~~~V~D0 00.. Ou ffIOiD ..e 09.*P~g 0 6b *0 r 0 E 040

li 23- _0 4w P. PZ * * an -"o 4p >Ob lln on 430 ok I. in 0 C a CD a II isaIY]~~~~~~~~~~i cm Z wo an v, ,A a 4ir on or* t w am in N D ok OD *t0 4 C8 ai t! ff *_ i Y h a~~~~~~~10 D *D Cib 01 Op ," CM we 42 Ok GD $I- qD1 In eV ".

- * we(VN*I, * 4% X _ t _ m6 N U

|S ta Uw FIA.

0~~

H CM ui a 1^ * Z O In 4t 48 4-" ft f 14D tZ CO <> CI (D 4O On- bl O <30 O opt on * tE tow VD go tet I"o 1t~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 64. In ._. o c i; 4 *D n II- ok r o a op 06 6. _ <, -ob $- oP> oh, 0- &. 11% R. i. 1P > ,b.

|~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~I 41 0 40 0- _o I D O M l 0F C& ob c- in - t *r CM MD *o o 40 O0 410 OD 40 O0 0

m~~~~~~~~I ol 4w C3, ib<n _ * (V 41 _W mN~tE Cm CM f4tN 4.1 t cm Ct v opt

_3 *4,p,.'. qr - in o ro No qe p o0Po ow. .o O. in 0 C0 0 - n f U Il Ai w in A";l ~~~~~~~ Ht :> Pz -=. co, in ok pq o6 0 4c o p i- qr go °n 0 tN > 43 ft In 40 to % ̀4D Co' wo ^ I%.

4X IL -o W 0to 41 In A 40 iD Oh 400 0 40 -*D 10 lN AD PtE cm 4: 44P OD Ps 0 s0 4p fM 4t o- ID

r~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~* qp 4D siw a: m o o, 4n nwe o on im *o W ID 4t Wrf 40 I- 90 _0 in. _0 Of~~~~~~~~~~0i nin 4ir o 4oq i =4bo 4 ai mwlp

~~~a~~ a cm

-i,~~~~~~ 0 ~ ~ IK0 W0-4441 dn4t(Win 0 0.p40 1 0 w N4tP 9'- 'mV Wanl b 4 tkIC 4I

p~ 000 : 0 Nt N 0 W . I D 0 0 0 iD _o v- 04 N 0 -4-0 E I -0 0D N0

&0W . we -we we IV* we _ we _ _ W* we _0 we we _o W* _V W_ _ w _ W* _ W* _ wt1

Cy ~ I-

Table 2: TUN7IA - ETIhATED FUTURE SERVICE PABThNS ON EMMnT PTIRTr nfrlOUTISTANDIIG INCLUDING UNDI;BURSED AS OF DECEMBER 31, 1968 (OONT.)

Debt Repaable in Foregn Currency

(In thousands of U.S. dollar) Page 11

EO3T OUTST(BEtOG Or PErmOn) DAvMENTS nURINo pCr!n

ICLUDING AMORTI -VrAm IhIrAT'1iI9trn 7&Ttnh4 fThA?aC¶ Yfn?AI*EAR UNO!53URSED I I *N* 'a - 'AL

LOANS FROM4 GOVERNMENTS

o(U4AIT

1969 39*488 1,067 546 1*61319t0 38.421 3;043 :;4''65019' 1 35. 379 3. 077 1 344 4.042119°?2 32:30 ' 3;:1:3 :,223 4 31913 29 188 3.178 1,099 4.27819?4 2';010 3;245 973 4#2191915 22765% 3.286 845 4#13119?6 19.479 3J328 716 4,0;;1977 16.151 3.372 584 3.9561978 12.79 3.47 3 451 3J9251919 9.306 3577, 314 3.8911980 5;72 :1OT;g i.,vv1981 4.122 1,658 121 1.7791982 2.aA64 336 71 AAO?1983 ?.128 3S4 61 425

Table 2: TUN IA - EDTIBAm FUTURE SERVTCE PAYMENTS ON J-J'LA PUBLIC DB,TOUTSTANDINO INC:LtDIR UNDISBURSED AS OF D4BlMER 31, 1968 (CONT.)

Debt Repayable in Foreign Curreney

(In thousand, of U.S. dollar.) Page 12

OEBT OUTST(BEGIN Or PERIOD) PAYMENTS DURING PERIOD

INCLUDING AMORTI-YEAR UNDISSURSED ZATION INTEREST TOTAL

LOANS FROM OUVERNMENTS

NETHERLA NOS

1io9 11381 1 1 1970 1#368 1 1 11971 l1-381 **

1972 10381 1 11973 1J381 1 11974 1#381 30 1 31

915 1#351 73 41 1131976 1 278 r3 38 111197? 1#206 73 36 109198re 1133 73 34 1071979 1,060 73 32 1041980 906 73 30 1021961 915 73 27 1001962 642 r3 25 981903 rro 73 23 9A

POLANO

1909 366 250 1 2511970 O' 136 136 3t39

Table 2: TUNISIA - 8TKATED FUrURE SERVICE PAYMENTS ON EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBTO'ul.OAWi'w' DiO1L#uvD 'u-;BUR-SK)D AS OF DJCIEMER( 31, -1Y68 (COUT.)

Debit Repayable in Foreign Currency

(in thouandsa of U.S. doflar) Paoe 13

DEBT OUTST(CEGtN o0 tERIOD) PAYMENTS OURING PERIOD

INCLUOINO AMORTIYEAR UNDISSURSED ZATION INTEREST TOTAL

LOANS FROM GOVERNMENTS

SWEDEN

1969 4,Pr99 138 36 1r31970 4*661 138 35 1721971 4*523 138 32 i7O1972 4*386 138 29 1671973 4*248 138 26 16419?4 4*110 138 24 16119T5 3.9?2 136 21 t5a1976 3*835 136 16 15619rr 3,o369? 231 as 319j978 3*466 231 83 314199r 3,234 210 r8 2Sfj960 3,025 210 73 283198t 2*815 210 68 2781902 2*606 210 64 2731963 2,396 152 59 211

UNITED STATES

g969 148*835 Z2S5o 1*647 40497-1970 i45*965 3*603 10879 5*5621971 142*302 185i 1.733 3.5841972 140*451 1*52? 1.691 3*21?1973 138*924 1*739 1.670 3.4091974 1J3'1B5 2* so? 10652 3*9561975 134*878 2*708 1*753 4*4611976 132J171- 3*222 1*915 5*13?197 128g*949 39612 2*063 5J6751978 125.33? 3,s9o 2*131 6*041i9r9 121427 4*047 2*350 6*3961960 117*300 4.419 2*375 6,7941961 112*961 4*476 2*284 6#7601962 1080485 4*535 2*191 6*72?1963 103*949 4*596 2*098 6*693

- PTTmyaO VA wcww&aq'Wn wvITvTUD aw wrmTiinAwwawuu r%u L'vmiawna 1 mvlD? vgn;U 2. s L UI"A^ - A AJ.EML&W CUAWW9 %JEhaV4.Vrf r WAjrn. L VN £:AKEUw&. ruDLAj.LV AJWDA

OSTANIDIIG INICUDIN3 UNDISBUMSED AB OF DECEMBER 31, 1968 (cONT.)

Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency

(In thouiandB of U.S. dollars) Page 14J

DEST OUTSTtforNF nr Prmtlnn &AYMVuT* nhBsImO mmOrnn.W-WA.. flJ- I I.e -I . , . W WW-'' - ..-

INCLUDING AMORT!IYEAR UNiD!i'UmR'ED zAToNu NT?EF'rt TnT?i

wl.W&W-W-W~~~w 46- 9 *W" -- - -

IOANS FRIM GOVERNMENTS

USSR

1969 15.00? 2#078 415 2.493. 7A .O.A2A 0 1* .SAo

19-71 10.651t 2.07 32r 2.4054 07 A.77 2:0:9 O.A i22iE

19 3 6.754 1.961 203 2*1641974 4r793 1A103 144 1.2&71975 3.690 1i103 1Ii 1,214

407S ~~~~~~ 4.4~~~~~tVA4P.1A4*ae 2:*v ': */ r- a - .^

19TT7 1463 010`3 44 I.148.07*k lEA A 44 104

OTHERS

1969 4.273 3.711 52 3.7621970 562 180 15 1961971 382 82 SI 941972 299 75 9 841973 225 75 7 8219rA 153 75 4 791975 75 75 2 77

Statistical Services DivisionEconomics Department

June 18, 1969

Table 3

TEN YEAR POPULATICK TREED AND POPULATION PROJECTION

Mid-year Crude Crude NaturalBirth Death Rate of

Population Rate Rate Increase

in 000'. per l,000 per 1,uuu 0/0

(i) (2) (3) (4)

1958 3,760 48.2 27.0 2.1

1959 3,840 48.o 26.0 2.2

1960 3,930 46.4 23.4 2.3

1961 4,020 45.9 22.9 2.3

1962 4,l10 44.2 20.2 2.4

1963 4,210 44.5 19.5 2.5

1964 4,320 47.7 21.7 2.6

1965 4,430 43.3 16.3 2.7

1966 4,550 44.3 16.3 2.8

1967 4,680 40.0 12.0 2.8

1968 4,810 45.o* 17.0* 2.8

1969 4,940 44.2 16.5 2.8

1970 5.o78 43.4 16.0 2.74

1971 5,223 42.9 15.7 2.72

1972 5,364 42.2 15.0 2.72

1976 5,931 38.0 12.0 2.6

1981 6,651 33.7 10.7 2.3

1986 7,347 28.9 8.9 2.0

* Revised UDward in 1968 from results of the second section of thedemographic survey.

Source : S.E.P.E.N.

In (V ON ;_ - * to 10 0 ' D0F ).r F cu O' 0 rO tN (j >Q /4 N 0 C' N' N eN N4 . .4 --- en 4E\ C\*g u

eq~ ~ ~~~~'

eo PO 4 o 00d

NI _

co .t.4 c~ g . o q 4Y 0 0 N '0 CO i 4g r | Nu 4 C D\ o c ( -t_ N ^ Itl N N N N -

j l; rPj J 4 E

*.4 4 e\| w.- 0 ?E-4 0~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~44

i ~ ~~ ~ ~~~~~~~~ ~ rg .. ..2C i c N> - ~( D Zr 4 :

|l ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ir 'o t- a o c

iS M~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~m4

42

'UN ~ ~~ t r-i CM CDr t- t) CO Cgt D C.oh~ ~ ~ I 44 t* .:: | |*|

-2 Ur\ \d) 'l- GO9 t. *) *0 i j0 t5 CO it j- *. '0c- Cl- GO O3 t- C- co co P- IP- GO

if- ND No ' - ' ,,_0'- a% 0. Cl' Cl'. 0-,. 0.. 0'

Table

AGE AND SEX DISTRIBUTION OF THE POPULATION FOR SEACTE YEARS

(in 000Is)

Censua Data Plan Period

I 9 5 6 I A 6 6 I 9 6a I a 9 ?

M F T DI F T M F T M F T

o - 4 328 322 650 428 412 840 436 422 858 458 451 909

5 -9 269 267 536 357 332 689 380 360 740 414 402 816

10 -14 ?13 211 424 299 272 571 321 293 614 363 338 701

1, - 19 182 181 363 192 189 381 239 223 1J62 305 280 585

20 - 214 161 162 323 142 151 293 158 162 320 204 198 402

25 - 29 145 146 291 142 154 296 )

30- 34 128 128 256 141 148 289 )

35 - 39 111 111 222 131 130 261

Lo -_4 Q6 98 194 102 99 201 jl 777 768 Is5145 818 822 16140

45 -19 81 83 164 92 84 176

So -54 67 69 136 83 72 155

-,,; _ 59 514 58 112 71 58 129

';0 -;4 h42 48 90 49 L3 92 56 47 103 63 55 118

+ 77 102 179 86 75 161 88 77 165 97 88 185

Total 1,954 1.985 3.940 2.315 2.219 4,534 2,455 2,352 4,807 2,722 2,634 5,356

)ourcfe 3. E. P. E.N.

TABLE 6

PROJECTION OF THE TUNISIAN POPULATION BY AGE GROUP

(in OOO's)-

Census Data

1966 1971 1976 1981 ly86Inactive Age % %

L2,100 w I6.3 2,381 1 .6 2,586 3.6 2,7A 140.7 2,7146 37. 4

65+ 160 3.5 177 3I- 2.7 3.7 256 3.8 298 4.0

Total 2,260 49.8 2,558 49.0 2,803 47.3 2,960 44.5 3,044 41.4

Ac'tive A9815-64 ~ 2,274 50.2 2,665 51.0 3,128 52.7 3,691 55.5 4,303 58.6

Total 4.534 100.0 5.223 100.0 5,931 100.0 6,651 100.0 7,347 100.0

Somnr-e : S-E=P=E.N. Proiection of the Tunisian Population 1966-1986

M.rYt? e1ADL {

Percentage of Couples in the Fertile Age OroupNecessary to Achieve the Reduction in theBirth Rate Forecast in Alternative 3

Women in the Couple Years Annual CumulativeFertile Age Group of Contraceptive Increase Annual Increase

15-49 Use % %(in 000's) (in 000Is) _ _

1966 955 20.3 2.7 2.71967 989 29.8 0.3 3.01968 1019 39.7 0.9 3.91969 1049 51.5 1.0 4.91970 1081 60.9 0.7 5.61971 1114 73.2 1.0 6.61972 1149 87.5 1.0 7.61973 1188 105.1 1.5 9.11974 1226 125.4 1.6 10.71975 1267 146.7 1.6 12.31976 1308 169.1 1.5 13.81977 1353 186.5 1.1 14.91978 1401 204.7 1.1 16.01979 1449 223.6 1.0 17.01980 1501 245.6 1.1 18.11981 1552 268.4 1.2 18.31982 1606 291.6 1.0 19.31983 1662 315.6 1.0 20.31984 1720 342.7 1.1 21.41985 1780 370.9 1.1 22.51986 1842 400.2 1.1 23.5

Source: IBRD Estimate

TABLE 8

Labor Force (Unemployment Included)Economically Actjve PopeIation hy Spr-tOr of Antivitv for Selected Years

1956 % 1966 % 1968 % 1972 %

Agriculture 628 65 521 48 527 46 567 45Pi sherieAs 16 1 17 1 17 1Extractive Industries and

Petrol Aim 17 2 25 2 26 2 30 2Electricity, Gas and Water 3 - 9 - 9 - 10 1Industrv and Manufacturing 92 10 130 12 138 12 154 12Buildings and Public Works 32 3 59 5 64 6 80 6Commerce 72 7 73 7 76 7 89 7Transportation 30 3 40 4 42 4 45 4Services (93 10 (127 12 ( (163 13Administration ( ( 94 9 ( 248 22 ( 11.4 9

967 100% 1,094 100% 1,147 100% 1,269 100%

Averag Ann-l Rmte of

Growth between periods 1.2% 2.4% 2.6%

Total Population 3,940 4,534 41,802 5,356

Percent of total populationeconomically active 24.54 24.12 23.86 23.69

Source : S.E.P.E.N. Second Four Year Plan

sXl~ll'JI E ON GX: S 3 'I.oCspA. T7r_2 . 1 90-1972(!nillionE ofr ;,r er na-s

Provisio_al Plan ?rojectiow

y160 196? 1 y63; :36f.. 13'2 1366 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972

Fr-va,e 3onsi-zwt on 253.3 266.6 282.9 293.: I .11 33 7.1 359.3 371.1 L05.4 ;19.9 - L43.5 471.2Pbibic -nszampticn 56.1. 59.7 '-. - . 6 7.2 79.3 91.2 100.0 110.7 115.86 123.8 130.9 139.4

Gross Fixed Capital Formation 59.5 68.3 76.1 88.6c 1,'.1 1i2.3 128.y 126.7 117.9 140.2 157.3 159.0 165 .5Governmeat (29.8) (27-7) (34 z6 (37.5) ; 1,.6j 'LX7.5) 'u 2 .2) '46.1) (L1.3) f55.8) (iW7.ii) (tj8.7) (54.9)Public and mixed enterprises ! 5.3) (15.2) (19.0) (26.8)- (37.4 0. ) (55.5) (LL7) (35.7) (39.9) (67.7) (67.6) (67.3)Private and. cooperative (20.:4) (20.L) '15 .5) (J$.1) (17.1) ( .1) (16.9j (22.8) (30.2) (34-0) (32.6) (38.2) (O0.3)Householis ( ,.O) (5.0) ( 7.0) ( 9.2) 9.0) I.3) ( 8.3) (10.2) '10.7) (10.5) ( 4.6) ( 4-5) ( 3.0)Change in Stocks -11.1 8.2 -6.L -5.LL 0.6 6. 3.1 0.1 -3.2 -4.5 3.1 4.2 1.5Net Ecpcrts of Gcods anad Services -23.6 -35.8 -e1. -39 -L -5C.^ - .I -52.5 -55.0 -24.3 -30.7 -42.6 41.1 -33.4OT or ts 76.6 72.0 6^y.7 76.o 81 98.7 11l.3 120. 126.5 IlS.2 152.1 160.9 174.4c:m: _rts 100. 1017'8 111.- 5 115.i 1'35.1 169;.7 1 67.1 175 . 150.8 175.9 194.7 202.0 207 ..3Gros Domestic Product at Mariaet Prices 33L.2 367.0 373 .8 401. 6 235.2 u95.8 07.5 531.1 572.2 626.2 656.5 696.5 744..2Ne- Factor Income Payments -1.1 -1.3 -3.2 -6.0 -7.6 -12.2 -114.2 -20.0 -22.1 -23.0 -22.6 -24.1 -25..3Gross National Product 333.1 365.7 370.6 395.6 4z28.0 _8c3.6 !L93.3 511.1 550.1 603.2 633.9 672.4 718.9

iNote: For the period 1960-1964I, the differences between GDP at market pr!ces estimatled from the -rod,action side ard from the expenditure siclehave been allocated to private consumption.

Source : S..E.P.E.N.

Table 10

OoDSS DOMnESnIC PrWCT ST SECiVEAL ORaGIo

(miliodns of curret anArs)

Provi- Plan PrJ ta.mitanal

1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 J. 65 1966 17? 128 19 1212 121l Y?7

_r1cuilt e L0. 8 72 87 86.8 98. 7040 22A. a A 6

6-3 A 7 -5 11~ IS. 23.3 _2L_ 6. A &*-

KEtractiye olndwt7 6.3 5.9 5.3 5.9 6.9 10.?' 1.5 10.8 12.2 13.4 13.7 1-d' 1s.3Crude oil - - - - 0.6 0.7' il.2 12.5 17.0 22.7 24.4 25.2 21.9

PFwer acd water 9 9 !6.3 6.7 6-9 14& 8.2 8.8 32 o3 2.6M

DmnufelUtL 38.5 645.8 43.0 1I7 DU 2L -1 I6 1 81±2 :a. 6f31 B1.;Z .

Food 1-dtry 22.1 2q.9 25.5 26.1 27.3 28.5; 26.3 25.5 28.8 31.7 31.6 32 Petro].eu rifiner - - - 2.6 2.3 2.5 2.b 3.4 3.5 4.0 6.5 64Blsic metaliru - - - - - 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.6 1. 1.tMechanical iMd electrical 1.2 1.0 1,5 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.6 3.0 3.2 3. ib4.3 l5 5.2Constructio materials 3.4 3.2 3.7 3.8 4.6 4.4 5.2 6.1 6.9 7.8 8.3 8*7 9.1Ch-icela 1.0 1.2 0.8 3.0 1.2 2.11 2.3 2.7 3.2 3.4 34i 3.7 64Textiles 6.3 5.4 6.2 7.8 9.3 10.8 13.8 15.1 13.7 15.4 19.3 IPA 214'Wood and futriture 2.0 2.6 2.3 2.2 3.3 4.3 5.1 5.1 5.5 6.2 6.6 7.1 7.6Paper3 printing, u4scelanoomi 2.5 2.6 3.0 3.2 3.8 4i.2 5.0 5.7 6.9 7.7 8.9 DA 11.?

rlPo25 esd inaza_ eti 19.1 20.9 24.2 27-6 29.7 37.01 41-3 - 46._ -. M AL 5 sNkl!4 5 ad t)ablic works 21.2 27.8 225 1.4 34 40.1 42 kd 4

Servicee 93.9 9-8 103.2 16.L 1L3.2 121.5 L26.5 1. 11.2 61.2

Housing 12.2 13.0 14.2 15.0 15.7 16.5 17.8 19.0 20.0 21.1 22.4, 23.6 25.3Tourism _ 0.7 1.0 1.8 3.5 W.I 7.0 9.1 11.1 13.9 154L 1.1 20n.Caerce 46.7 49.2 51.9 SC.7 57.0 66.5 60.0 65.0 67.0 71.0 7I.2 76.3 83,Other a/ 24.6 26.0 25.9 26.3 27.0 28.1 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 29.5 31.0 324

General roav -nt 8.8 2. 846 47.6 ;0.9 4 9 5l 71M B 86.2 89.4 24-6. 1.'9 2 it

0EV at 'actor cost 284.1 319.1 32 j9.6 374.3 428.0 429.9 4 491.3 42 9029 6*21

Indirect taste less subsidies 50.1 47.9 46.3 52.0 60.9 67.9 77.6 77.7 B0.9 91.3 95 .7 102.8 111.4

GDF at maet ;riLcs ,334.2 367.0 373.6 40l.6 435.2 495.9 507.5 531.1 ,522.2 626.2 65645 696.5 MLle.

a! Includles services of domnestics and all other serv-ices

,ource : S..F.E.N.

Tab le 11

GUOSS DOOMSTIC PR)DUCT BY SEECTOJT.L OR1;GIN(millions of 1966 d'Lnars)

Provisional Plan P?roJection

1960 196:1 1962 1963 1S 4 1965 1966 1.967 1968 1969 197') 1971 :1972

Agricultu're 85.2 2 .0 89.C 35.7 99.3 102.1 74.5 63.8 76 .7 84.5 83 .16 88.5 93 .7_ 7 T 6.5 7 77 i T7 _71i 9.2 3 37.6 ' 9

Extractive industry 7.7 7. 3 6-5., 7;7 T7 WI; TM3Cride Oil - - - - o.6 0.'7 4.2 12.5 17.0 19.7 21.2 21.7 .a1b

]Power and water .9 5.'9 6.2 6.7 7.1 7.5 8.2 8.8 9.4 10.4 10.9 11.6 -12.2,anufa cturiniig 40O g715 47.9 I;Z 97 -.1 63.7 7 7 _7 j 8

Foid indi try 23.7 2 7.2 2 7. 26.3 T 27i 30.0 ;B 30.9Petroleum rel'inery _ - 2.6 2.3 2.5 2.6 3.4 3.5 4.0 4.5 4.8Basic metallurgy - - - - - - 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7Mechanical and electrical 1.5 1.2 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.6 4.1 4.4 5.3Constrx: tion materials 3.6 3-4L 3.8 3.8 4.6 4.5 5.2 6.1 6.9 7.8 8.4 8.8 9.2Chemicals 1.5 1.7 1.2 1.5 1.7 2.3 2.3 2.7 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.7 4.4Textiles 8.9 7.'5 7.7 9.6 10.7 12.0 13.8 1L4.7 12.8 13.7 16.9 17.6 18.4Wood andi furniture 2.7 3.1 2.8 2.7 3.9 4.4 5.1 4.9 5.2 5.8 6.2 6.7 7.1Paper, printing, miscellanecus 3.1 2.9 3.4 3.6 4.3 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.6 7-3 8.3 9.8 10.9

Transport and Communi.cations 24.8 26.3 30.1 ,1.0 36.2 40.5 4L.3 4L1.5 42.8 4h.4 45.2 48.2 51.3BuiALdng azid pub=iFoiks-- 727.l 32.9 38.3 2l9.3 373 l- 7 1.7 J 62 70 T1;7 12 W4Services 7 99.9 i l-T 1CW2 1lC77 12i- 113.2 L MhT l07 1-37 13 lIW7 MM

Holusing 12.2 12.9 1 4.2 -1 .7 =7 9 72 20.0 7 22.17 23 25.3Tolarism 1.3 0.,! 1.1 1.9 2.7 4.8 7.0 9.1 11.1 13.9 15.8 18.1 20.4Coirmerces 57.1 59.01 62.1 58 .7 63.3 65.9 60.0 61.5 64.0 68 .0 70.7 74.8 78.8Otlher/a 25.2 27.2 27.3 27.2 29.1 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 29.4 31.0 32.5

General Goirernmesnt 47.2 52 .6 58.7 61.1 61.3 63.5 71.8 75.5 82.1 85;.2 90.3 95.6 101.4'GDP at factor cost 3377 T 3T 301.4 3'T UTW 41747497 0 40 . 7 5f 5362.5 57.2Indirect taxes :Less subsidies -r7 55-. 53.5 ' -9 .7 b9. 7 . T7.0 .7.0 7r9 1 06 .1GDP at Mariket Prices 395.2 424.3 434.9 4L5!.1 4485.3 511.2 507.5 509.7 5147.3 593.7 621.,0 660.3 103.2

= _ _= = . = == = =~= . == _~ .-

- Includias services of domestics and all other servic es

Source: 3.E.P.E.N.

Table 12

THE FINANCE OF INVESTMENT 1965-1972(millions of dinars)

Provisional Plan Projections

1965 1966 1yo96 180 1Y96 1970 1971 197?

Gross Fixed CaDital Formation 132.3 128.9 126.7 117.9 140.2 152.3 15'.0 lc.cChange in stocks 6.1 3.1 0.1 -3.2 -4.5 3.1 II.? J.r,Gross Investmet 138.4 132.0 126.8 114.7 135.7 155.4 163.2 1(o7. 0

Domestic Savings 67.4 79.2 71.8 90.4 105.0 112.8 122.1 133.6Less: Net Factor Income Payments ,2 T7zI M -212. -23.0 -?7 6 -.'1TI 7Plus: Net Current Transfer ReceiptaL -0.3 0.0 1.3 0.9 1.4. 1.4 1.4 1.l,National Saviy s 5.2 65.o 5. 69.2 83.5t 91.6 . 109 .7

General Government 2. 2 1 • 9.2 19.7 27.8 2 ? ' -1'Public Enterprises 21.8 21.6 25.4 31.2 40.8 4( . I) .1IIdentified Private Enterpitses 5.0 6.0 7.3 6.9 7.1BaDk 2.4 2.3 3.4 I1.V . 4. l.u Z.t ,.Households and Unidentified 5.2 13.6 7.0 17.9 11.8 18.4 18.8 17.t

Net Foreign Capital 83.2 67.0 74.7 45.5 52- 3 63.8 63.8 57.1Public 4il 3LrO 1WI. I . , I .Private/a 33.4 27.8 19.2 14.0 11.8 13.h 11.h 7.'Decline in reserves 3.7 8.2 6.1 -6.1 -6.o -11.0 -8.0 -o .

/a for4 1h ch4il f-Aj,- .- A phil4ait.tLropic donat-iona, have been deducteod f7,.m n: t ..A.^+^ttransfer receipts and added to private capital inflows. They are estimated at.(millions of dinars): 2.8 2.6 3.4 4.9 5.2 4.8 6.8

Source : S.E.P.E.N.

lable 1 -

. F33 FIXZ_ r,J. L FC?aR!TIOU BY S'0R 19D6O-1_2

'milhiora of !urrent dinars)

-rovi- Economic Total .otal Plan- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~sional '3udget

_-0 1 * 9f I ;' < 19 * 1e3 1 15 if, 16 1967 19Sa 1i69 1965-1968 1969-1972

Agriculture li-. 12.0 135 20., 23-3 27.6 25.6 2IL.1 22.7 29.7 100.0 128.0

Minia 2. 3 .7 5.8 6.0 20.1 20.9 19.4 12.7 8.7 73.1 64.0

L:tractLve irmlustries 5.o 0.9 0.7 ?.0 2.u !4.7 5.3 3.3 2.0 3.3 15.3 30.8Cruie o4l 2.0 ?.0 4 . 2.8 3.6 15.4 15.6 16.1 10.7 5.4 57.8 33.2

Power - 1.6 0.9 5.7 7.8 6.1 7.1 6.4 6.6 27.4 3

ManfL'actujri 1. 6. 3 9.9 11.7 22.8 26$.8 12.7 16 67.6

cood industries 0.3 ).4 1.3 2.4 1.0 1.3 2.0 3.1 2.6 1.8Petroleimi refInery - - 2.8 4.2 1.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.2Basic metallxrgy - - - 0.8 10.5 11.1 2.1 1.0 0.6 0.4Mechanical and electrical 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.5 1.7 3..4 0.5 1.0 2.4 2.0Construction materials 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.0 0.7 3.1 3.Li 1.7 1.7Themize's 0.2 0.3 °.L 0.3 2..3 D.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 3.2Textiles C.6 1.' 0.7 1.3 3.5 9.7 3.1 1.8 1.6 3.6Wood anc furniture - - 0.2 0.1 - ID .1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5Faper, printLag, miscellaneous C.2 0.2 3.8 1.5 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.0 1.9

Transport and commications l1.6

7.0 7.1 7.7 9 .l 7-5 16.6 L1.6 13-5 18.9 49.2 96.3

Of which transport (11L.6) ( 7.0) ( 6.4) ( 7.0) 9.0) (7-0) (15.4) (11.2) (12.0) (15-9) ( 45.6) ( 85.8)

aouan 5.6 9.2 9.9 14.3U 13.5 13.5 2 .7 13.3 13.9 48.7 51.4a!

Commerce, tourism and other services 2.3 1.8 3.5 4.4 5.8 7.7 12.2 15.4 15.1 18.5 50.4 67

Of' whiclh tourism n.a. n.a. ( 1.0) ( 2.0) I3.0) ( 6-5) (10.6) (13-0) (12.3) (15-0) ( 42.4) ( 6o.0)b/ c/

Admintstration 16.0 15.7 20.3 18.9 15.2 21.4 24.7 24.4 21.7 27.3 92.2 108.6

Edlucation 1.6 1.5 1.5 3.2 4.8 8.7 8.5 9.2 12.5 12.6 38.9 46.0Health, sports, cultural affairs n.a. ri.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.6 3.4 4.8 1.5 2.1 12.3 1IL.0WEater sujpply n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.1 2.4 2.2 1.3 3.8 b/ 8.0 16.3 c/Adtinistrative building and equip-

ment n.a. n.a. n.;a. n.a. n.a. 8.0 10.3 8.1 6.4 8.9 32.8 32.3

Non-identiLfied 5.5 12.7 5.2 5.5 3.4 - - - - - - -

TMTAL 59.5 68.3 76.2 88.6 105.1 132.3 128.9 126.7 117.9 110.2 505.8 617'.1

a7! ncludes investment in construction and public works enterprises.b/ Includes D2.7 million of investment in urban water s5rpcly by SONEDE.c/ Includes D15.0 million of investment by SONEDE.

Sources: Les Comptes de la. Nation, 19650-64 and S.E.P.E.N.

TABLz 14

DITIRPRISE GROSS FInED CAPGTAL FORMUTION 1965-1972(rn-l'I s o' urnt--4--.)

1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972

Agriculture 6.8 8.o 11.2 10.8 14.8 16.9hiblic 1. S Ir 5 T- 3. r67, -y7- 2.hPrivate and Cooperative 3.2 3.3 3.0 6.2 7.6 8.1 12.5 14.5

mini ino 4.7 5.3 3.3 2.0 3.3 6.2 9.9 11.4

P~ubic 4 7 30 §> Y5 1.

Private 0 _ _ 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Crude Oil 15.4 15.6 16.1 10.7 4 9.7 02 7.9

Public -& 566.0 7 7§-ITT7Private 7 4.7 351 54 4

Power 8 6.2 7.1 6.4 6.6 4 10.0-,F;2T1i ir- 7SPrivate - 0.1 - 0.4 - - - -

Manufacturing 26.8 . 13.0 12.4 21.0 17.2 13.1Public 20.7 11.1 Y.4 0.1 lU.U If.( l.3.0

Private 0.1 1.6 3.6 4.3 6.3 3.3 3.6 3.2

s-rn r -. 10. j 1 7.7 A. 13.7 12 9 15I

Pu-bllrc- . 6f 67 t7 -1'27.3 t -1-2.7-PrivatA 1.0 0.9 0.4 1.4 1.1 1.4 2.1 2.9

Tourism 6.5lo.6 13.0 12.3 15 .0 15.0 15.0Piblic ; ;7 n 71 -7

Private 3.3 7.0 9.5 11.0 12.8 13.3 13.3 13.3Conmerce, housing and other services 2.1 2.9 3.4 4 .9 5.9 8.2 9.5 13.0

PUblic 17 T%7 77 _

Private and cooperative 0.4 0.7 o.6 1.9 2.0 1.1 0.9 0.7Cormmxnications 0.5 1.2 0.4 1.5 3.0 3.0 2.6 1.9

Public IA -7 v30 2.6 1. 9

Private - - -

FPublic - - b4-.1 2.9rri.va t - - - -

'¶OTAL 75.5 72.4 70.4 65.9 73.9 100.3 105.7 107.7

Public 60.4 55.5 47.6 35.7 39.9 67.7 67.6 67.9Private and cooperative 15.1 16.9 22.8 30.2 34.0 32.6 38.1 40.3

Source: S.E.P.1.N.

Table 15

GENERAL GOVERHENT GRO&S FIXElD CAI'ITAL FORMATION

(millions of c urrerit dirnars)

Provi- Total Economic Total Plansional Baciget

1965 1966 1967 1%8 1965-1968 1969 1970 1971, 1972 1969-1972

Agriculture 20.? 18.2 17.3 14.7 70.4 18.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. 74,.3

Works programis ( 2.5) ( 4.3) ( 4.5) ( 6.0) (17.3) ( 8.2) (n.a.) (n.a.) (n.a.) n.a.Other projects ( 7.7) (13.9) (12.8) ( 8.7) (4J.1) (10.7) (n.a.) (n.a.) (n.a.) n.a.

Transrport 2.8 4.7 3.9 4.3 15.7 11.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. 38 .8

Housing 3.3 0.6 0.5 o.6 5.0 :L.0 - _ _ 1.0

EducaLtion 8.7 8.5 9.2 12.5 3E8.9 1?.6 n.a. n.a. n.a., 46.o

Health and sports 2.6 3.4l 4.8 1.5 12.3 2.2 n.a. n.a. n.a., 14.0

Adm-iListraLtive buiilding and equipment 8.0 10.3 8.1 6.4 32.8 8.8 n.a. n.a. n.a., 32.3-

Urban water supply 2.1 2.h 2.2 1.3 8.0 L.2 n.a. n.a. n.a., 1.3

IOTAI, 47.- 4s8.2 46.1 4L.3 b/ 18,3.1 55.8 48.4 48.7 54.50 207.8

7 InLds D-5- ilL-i-on- i e,! -investment by the municipality of' Tunis in a trade cemter building.'E/ DIffers frum Table 43, revised data, for which breakdown is not yet availableNote: Public investments in ]housing and urban water supply are to be tranLsferred to two public enterprises,

S.N.I.T,. and S.O.N.E.D.E. Trhe planned amounts are:

1969 1970 1971 1972 Total-Houising (SNIT) T.7 6. fl T17 27WUrban water supply (SOINEDE) 2.7 5.3 4.1 2.9 15.0.

Source : S.E.P.E.N.

Table 16

PRIHARY EDUCATICNENROLLMENTS 1962/63-1968/69

1962/63 1963/64 1964/65 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 1968/69

First year 11.9 149 ]:,A "I07 IA). J.AR IAO T77A 7 ,, A , ,-'

FirEt year ~1 -2,22 1<31 14. ,JL_ OR 19,7 78,201 - 169,936 1792,2"' 1

Second year 105,159 119,763 128,890 139,458 149,351 154,035 152,9C4

Third year 94,0 67 106,803 119,930 128,363 138,383 117,[74 149,369

Fourth year 77,802 87,842 99, 594 110,733 118,996 128,203 131,248

Fifth year 64,280 73,254 83,178 94,448 105,802 115,314 117,331

S'byear 4 3,743 2-o 6,6 431514 8695 75,f3 101X89

Total 527,373 593,059 658,766 717,093 777,686 810,795 844.994

Source: Ministry of Education, Education Statistics

SECONDARY EDUCATI-iN

EN-uLLIMEWS i962/63- yoo/69

1962/63 1963/64 196L465 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 1968/69

"Enseignement Secondaire"l (Long cycle)

First. Year 10,143 11 816 1l,.3Q8 18,324 22,349 23,836 26,736

Second Year 7,870 .8,724 10,464 12,918 17,262 19,911 21,673Third Year 5,561 6,617 7 -O2 9jo64 11,279 ih.4L6 17,629Fourth Year 4,178 . 5,118 6,194 7,187 8,622 9,996 16,426Fifth Year 3,317 4421 740736 6O28 7.245 8,464 11,093Sixth Year 2,682 1,887 2,765 2,902 3,646 3,996 4,923Other 1,296 1,465 378 364 353 - -

TOTAL 35,047 39,878 46,347 56,787 70,756 80,649 97,880

"Enseignement secondaire professionel" (moyen)

First Year 6,182 7,228 8,760 10,008 12,130 13,990 18,195Second Year 4,323 5,194 6,119 7,481 8,832 10,363 12,935Third Year 3,295 3,718 4,355 5,548 6,631 7,660 10,235Other - - - - 234 -

TOTAL 13,800 16,140 19,234 23,037 27,593 32,247 41,365

"Enseignement professionel" (old s tem)All Years 2,586 2,591 2,136 2,093 1,918 1,733 198

"Enseignement agricole"

All Years 1,289 1,906 2?287 2,499 2;410 2,429

T'P,ot4 ,al-1 ofr a",-' ro.-rms of-secondary ed--Iu,catVi^.All. Years 52,722 60,515 70,004 84,416 102,677 117,058 139,443

* Till 1968 this iorm of' secondary education was administered by the Ministryof Agriculture; in 1968 the Ministry of Education became responsible and enroll-merit figures are now included in those for secondary education.

Source: Ministry of Education, education statistics.

Table 18

HIGHER EDUCATION

ENROLLMENTS 1962/63 - 1968/69

University of Tunis 1962/63 1963/64 1961V65 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 19bd/b9

Law 725 619 920 1097 1307 1552 1868Humanities 549 765 1056 1325 1435 1530 1775Science 589 764 1190 1305 1597 1779 ?141Medicine - - 55 133 185 231 347Theology 469 467 574 571 4

Agriculture - - - - - .204 272Pedagogy Center * 130 179 1R2 235 - - -

Higher Teacher Training (109) (113) (113) (114) (113) (107) (648)Hieher Law School 108 173 175 204 286 21h5 16)Commerce 58 83 104 90 86 73 8 Intermediate Teacher Tr. 132 233 331 416 479 533 49'

TOTAL 2869 3396 4587 5456 5903 6686 y6(,o

of whom: foreign students 391 489 491 512 498 435 ____

Tunisian students at universities abroad

Technical studies - - - - - 956 81)Medicine - - - - - 686Science - - _ - - 365 310Economics - - _ - - 343 ,90Agriculture - - - - - 219 lt Other - - - - - 112 _

TOTAL 2226 3062 3506 3092 2959 2681 "270

The nwmbers sho.. here are alread,y included in the figures for f-iwmanitiesand Science.

Source: Ministry of Education, education statistics.

Table 19

PRIMARY EIXDCATION

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS 1968/69 - 1972/73

1968/69* 1969/70 1970/71 1971/72 1972/73

Pirst Year 173,523 181,157 185,702 194,065 203,001

Second Year 151i,144 154,718 161,112 167,539 174,910

Third Year 155,347 153,748 157,560 161,835 167,789

Fourth Year 137,465 145,679 145,419 148,101 150,310

Fifth Year 122,532 132,388 142,617 145,949 150,353

Sixth Year 105,784 114,105 123,385 133,306 139,432

TOTAL 845,795 881,795 915,795 950,795 985,795

* These are not the actual enrollment figures for 1968/69 but projections;as can oe seen from TabiLe 16(last column), actual enrollments in the firstyear were considerable higher than projections.

Source: Ministry of Education, Four Year Plan projections, 1969-1972.

Table 20

SECONDARY EDUCATION

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS 1968/69 - 1972/73

1968/69 1969/70 1970/71 1971/72 1972/73

Firs+ Year 44 031 45j308 48j813 -2 770 57,237

Second Year 3. 608nR ____ 44,262 47, h71 50j,_1

Third Year 27j864 33,803 )0 33 41,156 44,3f1

Fourth Year 16, 426 23,1 62 33, 204 0, 851 )42, 40r

Fifth Year 11 , 096 15,091 21,02 32,36Q4 39,9 .1

Sixth Year 14,923 8,6AX5 or ,195 1790 23,126

Sevennth Year 2,653 10,037

TOTAL 139,848 170,635 199,409 232,285 268,239

Source: Ministry of Education, Four Year Plan projections 1969-1972.

Table 21

HIGHER EDUCATION

ENRvLLHENT PROJECTIONS 1968/69 - 1972/73

.968/69 '19A6/70 1070/71 1071/79 1079/73

University of Tunis

Humanities 1775 2030 2260 2390 2670Law 1868 1995 2235 2355 2635

t _ , ~~~~~~~~L __n - ne nI 1 .n I I r%<Higher Law School 16)3 170 114 9 0u

Commerce 80 85 85 90 90Science 2141-02302728010Engineering - 100 190 330 470MeAi i ne 34i7 -Ro 175 585 700Theology 527 380 350 325 300Aericulture 270 220 220 220 255Intermed.Teacher Training 490 - - - -

TOTAL 7660 7740 8625 9225 10350

'T'unisian students at Universities abroad

Technical studies 810 665 545 440 345Medicine 585 485 405 335 270Science 310 250 205 170 140Economics - Law 290 235 195 155 120Agriculture 180 135 100 65 42Other 95 75 55 45 38

TOTAL 2270 1845 1505 1210 955

Source: Ministry of Education, Four YearPlan Projections 1969-1972

Table 22

RECURRENT EDUCATION EXPENDTrURE

(1960/1965 - 1969) in D'OO

1965 1966 1967 1968 1969

Total government recurrent expenditure 102,181 117,848 127,694 141,217 149,163

of which: Education 23,743 29,471 32,063 36,297 39,474

Recurrent education expenditure

as a percentage of total

government recurrent expenditure:

1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 196i 1909

16% 18% 20% 23% 25% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27%

Approximate recurrent

cost per student (in D.) Primary Intermediate Secondary University

1961/62 17.5 81 112 208.

1968/69 18.6 ------ 114.7------------ 3;'4."tn

Source: Directorate of the Plan, Classification of Public Expenditure;and TL Thank Xhoni Le GCout die P tFrilRt.i nln en Tuni ie.

Table 23

pwnr% %rfMyrThO0 At lDtTT-IDDEWr7 Vn IOTTrpA rTr WYPI.?jI

~ o1968/69 -9in D000

1 968/69 1972/73 -1976/77 1979/8C

Primary Education 15,675 18,288 20,500 21,689

Secondary education 15,236 26,170 38,962 45,984

Higher education 2,501 3,378 7,081 11,498

Total 33,412 47,836 6 6 ,543 79,171

growth rate (%) 100 143 199 237

The government estimate of recurrent expenditure, shown above, is

based on the assumption that recurrent cost per student for

1968/69, as shown in Annex 7, will remain constant throughout the

period 1968/69 - 1979/80. (See para. 16 in main report).

Table 24

GROSS FIXD f(VES3T IN EDUCATION

1960/65 - 1969

in D I 000

I 4c: i a4 1047 IOR -14

,0 1 IO,J.s. r 4 4-4-.t l7 If 3. A I .1 41.i 5 5..LWUCLA. %JWWVO.L&M8AU L..L.06W% AA5V~~IW UU '4@W 54'JeI'p.JO LII..IF'

ri_ _aa ; ._u _ ~~~~~~~~~~~Q '7 if b n 4 e if 4 n A4V.L wAu6-" i JW o I0 ve ,_7 7E I. ,e

r.LA 6&A .LYUWIMUA%o J& W___ La..L_ A

Los - -A J-..J... gowe .mn 4 -A . - A -.LJ

a a prcWen'L p UJ1 'W%Oft&L. .L .LAu A .Lvau "UM

1960 191 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969

5 % 5 % 6 % 9 % 12 % 18 % 18 % 20 % 30 % 23 %

souce 1965-1969 Statistical Annex to Plan, table 3.13; 1960-1964 I.B.R.D.

.able 25

.:LLIONi CURRDET DINARS

T79EF 'EAR FlAN PIRS'r FOUP EAR PlAIi RCEIND FOUR YEAR PIAN

136: 1361 '321; 1963 19 6 1965 1?66 1?67 1968 196; 1970 1971 1972

')AL GROSS D24ESI-1OD'jCT - FACTOR COST 23&.1 31;.1 327.5 YL.6 37L.3 L28.( L2s.s LS3-S L91 .3 53L.9 56o.8 593.7 632.8

of which iRICULTMRE 70.o 79.2 75.5 84.7 86.8 98.0 7.5 70.0 34.0 93.8 93.8 98.6 Ia.8

P-^czage of AGRICULTURE 26.9X 24.8 23.3 2L.2 23.2 22.9 17.3 15.4 17.0 17.5 16.7 16.6 1i6.6

Inciex for agriculture incurer.t prices 100.0 111.9 136.7 119.6 122.6 138.1 lS.? 98.t9 118.6 132.5 132.5 139.3 iS.0

Indlex for agricultwze incoristant. prices 1966 100.() 198.0 106.5 112.3 116.5 120. 3 57.4 74.9 90.0 9S.0 98.0 1d3.o 110.0

TO'AL GROSS DOliSTICCAPITAL ?IJIIOI 59.5; 63.3 76.1 88.6 103.2 1 32.3 128.9 126.7 117.2 1ho.2 __ 476.9 --

of which jAORICULTIJRE 11.2 12.0 16.8 20.1 23.1 27.6 25.6 26.1 22.7 29.7 -- 98.3 --

Percentage of AGRICULTtRE 18.8 19.0 22.0 22.7 22.1, 20. 8 19.9 19.0 19.4 21.2 __ 20.6 --

TDIAL EXPORT 50.:3 46.3 48.7 52.9 57.3 62.9 73.7 77.3 78.6 94.5 98.0 102.5 111.5

/1of *which agriculture 29.6 27.2 31.3 33.2 35.0 29.' 30.5 23.3 22.3 2L.3 265.0 28.0 3D.1

Percentage of agriculttLre 58.8 58.7 6L.3 62.7 61.1 46.;2 1.4 30.1 28.4 25.7 2,5.5 27.3 27.0

/1 Include ocher ag.rizultural products not itemized in foreign trade data

Source SE:PE21

Table I6

A(MIMTULAL ?IUD ON 1965-1y/2

Actual Prov. Plan Projections Index

1969-1972

Products 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1965-1968

Hard w-iIeat el7.0. 415.0 312.0 Lto.o 421.0 14L.o L492. 556.o 113.9Soft wheat 111.0 44.0 47.0 83.0 71.0 76.0 83.0 94.0 136.8Barley 250.0 110.0 96.0 180.0 164.0 170.0 180.0 187.0 110.2VogetableB 1/ 250.9 293.1 274.7 217.8 252.0 275.5 295.9 319.3 110.2Citru - 100.0 97.5 116.6 86.8 100.0 108.7 119.7 127.0 113.6Table granes 22.2 18.7 19.7 21.4 23.0 2L.5 26.o 27?7 123-LWine grapes 230.0 165.0 137.0 123.0 - 137.0 137.0 137.0 137.0 83.6Dates 54.0 42.3 39.3 39.3 39.3 39.3 39.3 39.3 89.9Melons and vwLter melono 88.5 95.8 88.1 10L.3 94.0 98.0 102.0 107.0 1i6.5Olives 439.0 253.0 92.0 235.0 345.0 276.0 276.0 276.0 115.1Row tobacco 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.8 124.0Esparto grass 111.8 66.3 112.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 120.0 120.0 115.0Cork 6.9 7.3 6.7 7.0 7.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 115.4

1.ugar beet 37.5 55.5 39.9 2?7. Io.o q.0e 6n;0 7?o. 11731

Apricots n.a 13.5 16.6 11.7 14.0 15.8 17.5 19.3 119.0 MMlk (industrial) 9.5 9.1 9.9 10.2 14.7 15.9 18.1 - 20.2 178.0Livestock -/ n.a 10782.0 11543.0 11850.0 12200.0 12700.0 13200.0 137uu.0 11i3.5 '

/ Artichokes, tomatoes, potatoes and peppers

/ Value in 1,000 dinars (constant prices 1966)

3 Ratio of the Four Year Plan average over average of 1966 through 1968

Source t S.E.P.E.N.

Table 27

AGRICULTURAL 'RODUCTION 1965-1972(thousand dinars)

Actual Prov. Plan Projections

Products 1X6$ 1266 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972

Hard wheat 22,974 17,430 15,150 17,200 17,682 18,300 20,000 22,600Soft wheat 3,830 1,520 2,020 2,860 2,450 2,620 2,860 3,240Barley 5,200 2,290 2,688 3,740 2,424 3,495 3,70 3,840Vegetables 1/ 8,800 9,348 12,124 11,077 12,513 13,802 14,444 15,481Citrus 3.160 4,027 4,291 5,411 6,233 6,775 7,461 7,916Table grapes 1,320 1,610 1,230 974 1,047 1,115 1,184 1,261dine grapes 4,930 2,521 3,300 3,100 3,450 3,450 3,450 3,450

Dates ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ' 2no4' 1,550r 1,440t- 1,440 1,440r 1i 1,| i,J 1 0 I .hhoV.~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~.hMelons and water melons 1,951 2,343 2,713 4,271 3,848 4,012 4,175 4,380Olive3 19,316 12,570 4,977 12,700 18,500 14,800 14,800 14,800Rlow Tobacco 258 344 360 360 376 409 442 458isparto grass 559 330 560 550 550 550 600 600Cork 213 239 220 228 239 272 272 272Sugar beet 230 236 242 117 170 212 255 298Apricots n.a. 1,275 1,125 883 1,057 1,193 1,321 l,457P'llk (industrial) . 462 1464 53i 535 780 843 960 1,070Livestock n.a. 10,782 11,894 12,262 12,610 13,100 13,600 14,100

1! Artichokes, tomatoes, potatoes and peppers

Table 28

S T R U C T U R E O F A G R I C U L T U R A L, P R O D U C T I O N

(.Ln % of constant price VALIJE AfDIED)

Prov Plan Projections

19&) 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1 970 1971 1972

Cereals 42 .' 28.1 3h.2 39.h 31.7 37.7 :35.2 26.0 31.0 27.9 28.9 29.8 31.5

Olives 5.!) 25.7 9.L 1,.L 19.0 18.5 '15.I 8. 16.3 2'1.4 17.'3 16.4 15.5

Wine grapes 5.5 0.5 6., 5.7 5.7 5.D h.1 5.5 3.7 ,3.6 3.~7 3.5 3.3

Citrus 3.2 3.- . 2.8 3.6 3.L ,.0 7.5 4.7 14.9 5 .3 5.6 5.6

Vegetables 5.1 6.- 7.0 6 3 6.8 7.3 12.6 13.8 9.9 9 7 10.7 10.7 10.8

Livestock 15.5 * l.l, * 1L.8 * 1L.6 1,.3 * 13.0 * Ih.5 18.0 15.4 114.4 15.2 1.9 14.6

Others 1;,.L 17.2 24.7 20.8 19.9 15.1 13.6 21.2 19.0 115.1 18.9 19.1 18.7

10.0 1JO).O 100.0 12)0. 1'D. 10 I1I0.2) 100.0 IC ')100 1.0 100.0 100.0 -100.0

* For these years lives-rzk value in constant prices 1960 is supposed to be 11 mril'ior. -inars.

Source : S.E.P.E.N.

Table 29

F IBR DIRPOTS

(in nstrio tons)

Nitrogen fertilizers 12.016 12.798 13.511 26.2814 25.008 16.513 20.132 21.505 n.a

Potassic fert.lizers 4.292 2.517 4.498 5.145 6.513 1.750 3.547 3.479 n.a

Other fortilizers 641 1.418 1.987 2.727 2.153 110 151 n.a

Phosphatic fertilizers 240 69 - 351 71 4. 1/ .155 n.a

TOTAL WIORTS 17,C9 16.ou2 1996 34,50o7 7Jn7 3,I IR1873 2367 9 29.290 31. 800

m/ euperphoaphates

Source S 3SPEN and Statistiqaes du Coerce Ext6riour

ESTDITZ OF DOMTIC OamoTIr uFRT ZS

(in _trie tsus)PROV

1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 19 66 1967. 1968

Production of rockphoaphate 2.101.000 1.982.000 2.097.000 2.365.000 2.751.000 3.040.000 3.147.000 2.809.000 3.600.000

Less exports 1.636.0oo 1.627.0o0 1.833.700 1.971.900 2.2146700 2.260.200 2.324.000 2.300.000 2.800.000

Zatimte of dom-tic cousmuii n-io fphosplte rerti- -- -- v ---- - -

izers 465.ooo 355400a 263.300 393.ioO 536.300 779.800 Yuw 50gooo 810.000

Production of superphosphate 150.000 160.000 173.0MA 184.000 199.000 320.000 301.000 356.ooo 43o.ouo

Less exports 111.900 156.700 115.100 147.200 124.80o 257.100 169.000 382.000 346.000

stiste of dome-tic consumpti eofa , rpBbthatoB 2/ !!/ W

frte ereB- 38.100 .3w 57.sco 46a8a 74.200 62.900 50.wo 148.000 60.0oo

Total dmetio Con-

.ate and n-n-

lizerB 503.100 358.300 321.200 429.o 61 842.700 640,0 557.000 870.000

Total imports ofother fertilizers 17.009 16.802 19.996 364507 33.745 18.373 23.679 29.290 3l.800

Total do. -tic oon-

Fei-LAJIZe r 520.109 375.102 341.196 464.407 644.245 861.073 663.679 586.290 001.800

Index 100 72 65,6 89,3 124 165,5 127,6 112,7 173,4

r/ inea of stocks 1 233.000 tameaY decream of atok 10.000 teams

3 increae of stocks a 82.000 tesI..mports 4.000 tennte od derers& of stocks i 70.000 tomes

_ incremaef stocks I 214.000 tAmes

Source. a SlM mid Statistiqus. du 0o_rce Kx±t6r1iur

Table 3i

AGRICUiLTURAL INVEST?41TS OF CENTRAL GOVERNMENT 1965-1968AND TOTAL 1969-1972

(thousand dinars)

1965 19691965 1966 1967 1968 1968 1972

AINSOl,TDATED BUDGET 14649 12938 12899 11156 51642 -

(,' whi0h Tre:asury advances 911 1573 5169 3108 -

LXllE'T TI1'LE II SECTI(1W I 13738 11365 12444 10987 48534 61412Vorost (:l1 .. 11) 3300 2600 2862 n.a. n.a. 11900

'l lind wnterC preservation (art.. 12) 2000 2600 2263 n.a. n.a. 900Goll'w:11 Hlydljani ics (art. 13) 3300 4OOO 4455 n.a. n.a. 20800*

l5 :il:g, taral.nmation (art.. 114) 600 300 i459 n.a. n.a. 312*Intit ':i Li h :Ui on ot' a-grvcult.aire (art. I7) 2700 1800 2399 n.a. n.a. 18500o*Not. , l h ,,kci dowii (rztudles research) 1838 65 - n.a. n.a. 9600*NO;; iN MiRUiTWi 540 3 5 282 Il,359'6 3:5 z 1 Q4 18tl 12863;L 'i' t wK'1'h (::t'nluimotl a distribut.ioti) 37 0 9m140 ___3

::1,\ 1 Cicrs (c i dt - - -; 70["oveirl lo:uls l'or )projects 4j033 4322 3T1i 13r 13062 6264

ol whin ch not. allocated - - 797 - 79701!1 ! NE!!IANA (A~...r.ca) 2()23 2297 1069 891 6280 16cAgl'ricu lautd equiipmsent (America) 1177 - - - 1177Oi,odi KASSiOI (S%viet. Ulnion) 820 1133 302 17 2272!,:i,.'hri;iI, :uid Oued RiiiALA (Sov iot. union) 13 4IuJ u( 29 -4U I 114u

I I I t 1 1t iu i equipi I-wt. (Yulgoslavia) 432 97 40 69KELIlIIA prlI (Swedish) 440 -40kA[liOllAN irrijrated aroa(Germany) 614 - 64Gierum:i loills not allucat.ed 315 315

l,I iaouarl a .(Anmerica) 420:3outh Oases ( italy) 1260lMNR)IlllA-IUU SAlEM Plain (Germany) 1400

"'::. dMAS11 (G rm.;ny) 210(;IIAi1)[MAOIl Pl a in (Germany) 250Oluei lAKMFS (Ger'many) 435

C'ii l-al TI liusi:i irr:igalted areas (Germany) °09A ti it cia:l L:ikes (Germarn) 52o:i:;,,:; o1 NEI'I'A (Germaniy) 118Pi01 MN 'C:RGA ((lermany) 1150

IINANI 'I'lliAI.- 20052 18220 17295 104720L1 70287 714275/2

Proluv i:uiion:i L

- Planv, pr0ojec tions

FA0 grant-s included

M E ':S! N te,

'V 11'!: SIlEt4)

Table 32

IDENTTFICATTON OF CENTRAL GOVERNMENT PROJECTS FOR AGRICUlTruRE 1969-1912(thousand *inars)

Ori-Goirig New N w

PROJECTS Total Proje ets Pt iacts Poo 'I t.::

-orke9 03ef 3987;Studies 610,0 b4o00 6000

Forest 11909 909 11()00 1 100

Drainage o62 -4To2

General Hydraulics 247w 39__ lOl0tO 21400of which NEHBANA 551x4 714 - -

MASRI 14.10 Lbll) - -

LAKES 11435 14 35 _

BIR MuCHERGUA 2750 27"00Oued CHIBA 900 9g0oOTHERS ?361 216t1 -DJENDOUBA-BOUSALEM Plain 5000 - -m0I

GHARDIMAOU Plain 3000 - WO10

FLOOD ODNTROL 1440 - 114140

Drainage and reclamation (hydraulics) 339 39 lo0 ,o

Tree planting 110T loO3 -

Intensification ot' ag-riculture 2 115. 1 !?:' 1?36i 1.! Qof which EL HADUARIA 12565T

CENTRAL TUNISIA IRRIGATED AREAS 141 79 14179 -

NEFrA 00686 -

OTHERS 14)85 408M -

SOUK EL KIHEMIS 755 - 7;;GAFSA OASES 14 94,

BECHIMA 14o0 - 140 w10(MuGRANE-ZAGH0AN 112 - L 2 !2

USA Equipment 1407 - I 1Is7 1'IUSurface wells 800 - 610o 80")

CAp BON Citrus preservation l00O - 1.t 100Complementary irrigation 51( -South Oases 3°00 -Deep wells 8325 - 625

Extension services 4000 700 3 100 ;

Others 9t7 77T . _

GRAND TOTAL 730s2 1r 77^ -7

Table j

AGRICULTURAL INVESITMNT ALLOCATION 1969-1972(thousands of dinar)

PrivatePercent Admiinistra- Enterprise Public 1/

TvnAs of TnvaqtmAnt. T'nt.n S It n t rr A r -. '-ter'rise

irrrigation.,r which general nuraulics 35,590 27.9 24,665 10,925 6,475 4,450of' which i rrigated land development 10,900 8.6 10,200 700 - 700

J'ublic wells 200) 200 -Frlvate wells 200) 0.5 - 200 200Dra ina.w,o . recl amnation 300) 300Flood control 5.350 4.3 5,350 - - -Zquipirnerit 17,157 13.5 1,407 15,750 14,450 1,300Livestock 3,5°0 2.8 - 3,500 2,200 1,300Tree planting' 1,172 10.3 1,162 12,010 11,160 85Fore3a try 11,909 9.3 11,909ioil and wnter preservation 5,322 4.2 862 4,460 3,860 600

,L 7J J 7.6 -7 _Posea rch 1,500) 1,500ixtension services 3,740 3.0 3,740rul idings 3,600 3.0 - 3,600 3,60o -Fishint: 1,671 1.0 271 1,400 - 1,400Work relief 3,987 3.0 3,987 - - 2/ -Othe ri 1,569 1.0 539 1,030 1,030

127,850 100.-- 74,275 53,575 42,975 10,600

Iercentage 100 58.1 L1.9 33.6 8 3of which on going projects 41.5 23.5 18.0of' which on new projects 58.5 34.6 23.9

1, of which OMVVM 7,600W .whi;ch SOIIASSIS 300

o (' which (OTD. 1,300of whlich, ONP 1,400

.i c,i-.u:i plantation 375I ivostock food 655

Table 94

WORICWLUAVIA !PROUCING MTWRLS CSH1.5 FWW VC - A

R.I. of Ha, of Hate of .totl. base 100

1961 ~~~~~ ~ ~~~~~~Total ikoeth, TOWa Qer,e Total Gma. th 16116

196 _22 16 _16 1961-1 61. Prot 196

)c17q64 195 i 198 j96 1965-1960 Peroet 194-% 196 f97 1971 197 1696-197j Peroet 1966±-" 19 -l 1799-1

Sale. ,LO2 fLU~ 81.317 89.120 327.0602 2L2O k4 101.500 71.500 67.300 f7l40 318.100 %.I !1.69 ALMJ 98.164 107.563 AMI& L M

Uo.1u added at factor ca: 79,100 75,60 84.800 87.100 2§00 71.50C 70.0WD 76.700 9§6.369 ti.U! 206 9666

(8881± ~~~~~~~~~~~19.12 A, 2 19.LOO 21.100 21.72M 18.300 2C.0W 25.100 ;!6.00W 28.0W0 32.000 360

- ieetist-,ce cwoectIi- (19.121) (19.98) (19.85) (19.080) (20.700 (21.300 (22.700) 2)4I000: (21.30) (24.600) I 21.800) (25j10)

Correct Suieldico jj 16 87 1.92 1.943 . - 500 500 50. 500 2. 000 . C 0 0 0a?&I ~ 2. ~ J

ag.t e- _cdlt1.I1 71 2.671 3.262 1 8 6.07 6.1 9£5 10.278 31.111 L:.0 la 1 1821 IL.250 lb60 51.420 2j L'

to gobi terOlAae 100 Zi~ 0 4

3 5 5 200 1 '

to 2r.aasria 5±255 1055 803 .J: 11. ]Credit Ititu1 - - 115 1,189 1,532 2.051 1,91.1

Ooverrot ep cia red itth-ogt KA85 1,176 130 221

5.21±. ezd 1-g m~ credite.ne-ioea70 1. - 2.0WC 1.561 . 56 1 2,103 Ij' 3,859 6,338 1688 15 31 I-"-'1 8.316 9.03. 11.170 3910. 8. 1L9 371 gjj

Falile atarprieci - 10 200 300 103 1,385 859 223 1,9.90 525 725 1,231 3,971

Print. ,,oterpriaee65 600 8oo 1. 901 2.00W 2,700 30W 6,115 8,323 7,793 9.178 9,841 I35.13

Fortig, qredijteiion 88o1 16LTo public enterpri1ee C 2.612To prinmt. mterprlo.. 1,398 5,221 7,C79 6,98' 23,4675

La-tic credit extaeciM 3,925 2 582 2,09'9 2.5 .15

Topri-ate ut-rpriace 3,925 2,582 2,1C99 2,853 11,1.59

gie tar.: leteCOleA 1,101 j4~~~~~~~~~~ 5.313 2,622 11,611 .1 - 1,590 r,±29 1, 83C 9. - - j~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 1.513 2,676 2.712 5ZL"61 "701.7; 21 8 67 L

P±-l1': rterpr-isee 1,11 l92 1,621, l.42 1,322 I, Vt6 1,821 971 5,2317c pri-et. a.terprleea17 2.1 256 27 55 75 1,2131 1,732? 3,125

!Al' jI lii. Nr..d t,716 i1,5 .9 iL,7Zt , ? 1.51 '17281 21'~ 82.51? 96.685 37621 120 1156:389 113l6.C 18736 10,1 "115

Tc L. f_ _ _ _ __ _ _ --- ti-

Cas IrFI(6~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~cf "c 7

a llre cedit -2,50 ,50 150 15C 60.

cv o-ooe lrtOl*11 19.4 12,9CC 23,6CC 27,311' o,,So:

1'iC1 1751 115 1 'r1.2 .C 55' 1. 14 1.'. 6.S 6.11575216 L' di afi i

cv lrsced by -crOt 20 5L3 5,601 5,620 21,.....

cv sae tir oeaxs 4 A C 1 51,610 56,210 2196Cto flr-avd fna troll:t 2,811 3.,. .,v.

<.5.5: :r.t,rp:CLec -. 1(7 , - 5,.',. 5,'?, -C ,1't~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~2-,t -- 2;~7

- " -. 0~~~ .s cr8 ' j1o _ ' 1.2 :2827

Icr soot OCCVV-D .tc -. - - __ C.t.. CL I. 5,6 =~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~7,

cli: ,r,terpCIaCC IC 1 C- 120 971 311. 63 .'2 22 r36

156 '36~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Into eotti7,CICOO .. .66 51' •.1'9 677 ':1 55' 297 601 651 710 t±. 9051~~~~~~~~~~~~~~- 6 2 t,

Taxis 3*. eootionM)

AGnItra.L POW't7J BnzMIusos Za FLOW I/ -

Inde" of fr-parSr.of nAto of set. of totlal the 100

Totall :irrt Sotal 5,oth Totai Growth 196±-lIAL1261 ',i2 IA6 1962 1961-196L Perent 191.-19& ;XS 966 1967 1566 1965-1968 PerCent 1361-1966 19S6 157C 1i71 1J72 1S69-1972 Percent lj65-1972 I3tSB6W1M

.3/12 '32KB f^_7 gl 6 h9? . j h582 23,.771 .vC?,_oS 7. 9 5.252 7 296 1S 3 1 10,.el 18 II 6,2§ 16 681 52.L 1C<,

..o; ccc:.eoct financic. oflr.ves-;-ct 2 2e8 222 L6 L j 1,32t 32 5 11 ?2 13.3 7.6.h96 8.96? IC.211. jS.?LC 6t.5

1.:!-f-r:-<- o r ceerlto.t 2.89 _L veu 253' hl 5 6.c53 l 99 2.125 32S 2L'7 L,361 _e S 259 1.C79 9_72 26< e i i5 t

...795:r.<c: o-zelfies . ... .....s OOC 5.31 i2L3 2-63j2 1j._1 -5 Jtj6RC- 2Li&127 L2LC .1 .26:1 S 3lB .9 I. 1 8Sij3 2.6776 2.712 &..2S 1$j

1Ž:; ccx reatL cutet*noij

1 cX 3 S2C ,C 7 J2 IC 1? 1.7C5 5, 9. ,30 13G 70% 9,700 11.600 16.5 22.1Cl 1U0 l1j (L 762

Mr-eaje r5 nto:t term c,eltd1;C :rret:e e..tercrieesE- ccf - 11:! 1,227 1L,94 7.2 :,h3C 25 3,915 7,C619L. 38% 2.521 3,128 9,30L lL,875 6. 0 2C ti 3 76_

3.A - - 3 21 826 2,:al 5,0915red"i?h±cuel - - - 51 132 L30 750 861.rjocent specc.1 -edt - 1,133l 1,223 1,06IL 1,08L 1,081. 1,081 1,081

sdenLdoete o -redi

teta>nilz erC; of rL 2C 2g61 3.100 15 lDC 26 9 5.M 2,1 12,0 18,001 1O0 lo L1S0 g .2 53 53,5CX; 00 S _, ;

Arreere edLum end lao tor.crdit ofprvt. enterprises

7 yter-)e L 16 32 i' 1.7 205 L33 872 1,799 10

tource !ticien estiatee, S E P } 1N, Xmlant. of Agricoltore, MA.

/ Ecxlsding CAIP and mctx offio.*. Th1s floe of finds stateent does not take Into ecco,mt da-otic pri-t. non-bk credit.i/ It to 1s-osod that eLI caal h evdblo has beon d:ntritbtsd to propritors Actolly the nsti-nel ecconta sho expressly thategricoltorel point. ires.nents, in 1966 wn fsanoed partly by Mhort te- credits of 2,172,00. Therefore in 1966 reekdistributed to propritore no in fect £36,728,00 Insatead of D35,616,ODO ed self-financing of ines-tnt 11,013,000 iwsted of12,125,0CC. Ilthoogh the national .coonts do not ohbo a smiler setetittin Lra-re other thrn li9

6Yldireot evidence sggeete

thxt pwrtic-lnly in bad prodootien ye- r (ouch -n 1961, 1962, 19567) ehort trer credit k. keen wes to finance ineest-ent .ithcorresponding effete of hkiter cash ditribkted to propri,tors and lwer nslf-fisncirg. Caeh diatributed to proprl.otors ingp0a meterpraln _d indiid_d of lnn_e tae.

WTMIMUSS AMICUIWAL MJTS AND I=R IUACN

Ibial 1969 MOR l m 7 12 So Z 1971 197

C.omer&tUsrs Co coratine uiecta j_2D6 1i 8.125 12.5kO 14.4&

?ar.pn: in7ncin5 kLSr J 8J 5.211 7.7 61 Irrigation projetst 6,675IquipmMt 16,450

!F!U4.11 t..l II,1'J 2 Cqh 2.500 5.566 4.500 Lvvetock 2,200

01- bwt,lh lie 6,109 Tre plInt 11,160new ti X1,W Soil pronsert&n 3,860

..Wr t 1- igram 9iliAp 3,60:,.- (i- ilv .1, 0 1, ttl e cul. n t.Unn 375

OKS, IW 1.1,- - 128 128 158 LIv.utock f8.d 655

,a ltt w* .11 - 4,,1?7 743 1,230 1,193 1,161 035 7,600 1.219 1,993 2 2,2r

V. I thehis 60l - 231 192 168 )ydraulie develponte 4,400t1 nbur,.ncnta Ira US Agricultural develoe4nt 700Lo.^nra,(ricultlJraA Livsetock 1,300

282 160 122 - - Tfre planting S00Soil preservation 500

no.1 ILnanctoc 19.300 2&L61 2.9-14 J L 4I lk k_oseqtts lIn ncing 19J00 3.467 2.9111 5^4ZS 7,491o S~~~~~~ ~ ~ ~~~ ~~~DUASSIS 300 300

4.7M - 513 257 2,113 2,909Banking -reAit 11u 459 3,925 2,582 2,099 2,853 I draulic deealopnt 50 50FMuIImnl ,ut'stIlee 3.07h 55 75 1,213 1,732 Tree planting 150 150

Soil norseration 100 100IXITAL CXlI I ATIVES 2 ,5 125 U4OTD 1.300 1-

-MV VP_,m:m-. Ano1;3n0

cre),Vnf)nrnhini :.67o ~~~~~ R 725 1.R2)Frn87, 9C72 1.3 UP 1,S00 420 660 160 160

Dul lh . -ll (co.o1 1,1 430AtIl 1,1,4 f39' 'j2'j 525 -

K-wr11 l,0(P - - 200 800

[esUr ri financing 4,730 1'297, 1.8 1,43 970

E.,ut-anm ,ltsltiee 4,730 829 1,1M8 1,463 97r1

MIII. I"Vt M 1-6(1) 1.219 1.991 2.188 2.200

-iJO( -00

A ~~~~~~~~~~~~O 300 6

*;'_11vreltR t r

Q afliM SO~~t-M60

tne-ti, rInanoing 601 220 60 13-tq .i.Ites) 4(1 , 50

.'Y l.lzl~iToa I;'ll NI0 16o 16(3

nrlg Inancing 800 200 6on

iu1. 0 8r credit. 200o 200

lnmo,tir financing 6W 220 60 160 160

*aavti|l ro600 220 60 160 16O

1. -A'N 19L, IlAL Sl.575 11,104 10.776 14,852 16.841 1A.77 11.104 10.778 114,85 168141

'rig f)inancing 2d.44S 6.o88 6,13 704 8.217

'lo e-opr...tlea 23.675 4.398 5,211 7.079 6,987II fieS 1,770 1,690 1,125 725 1,230

alme.tlt L Jnanana 25.130 5.016 4642 l, 8.624

Ranking credit -n

1rQmeVt alteitles 11,459 3,925 2,562 9,090 2,853

:lil'tI s9bidlec 8,30'5 1,384 1,54) 2,676 2,702':n.'iig ;,, -293 1s"7 2,273 , 69

TABLR 36

OROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION IN MANUFACTURING 1965-1972(millions of current dinars)

Provi- Plan Projectionsional

1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972

Food industries 1.3 2.0 2.7 1.8 2.1 1.9 2.1Public 175 177 217 52 177 1.2 I-TPrivate - 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7

Petroleum refining 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.1 0.2 0.2PUblic V.1 VT.. VT -4 1.2 IL 0Private - - -

Bnsic . 1ll 2.1 1.0 o.6 0.4 1.4 2.9 o.6Public nor~~~~~~~~~~f7I Q7t 175 7 b7 ::0 T7; :5

Private - _ _ _ _ _ _Mechanical and electrical 3.4 0.6 1.0 2.3 2.0 1.1 1.0 0.8

Public ' 7:75 37Private - 0.3 o.6 1.4 1.2 0 L3 0.2

Construction materials 0.7 3.1 3.4 1.7 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.8Publi G rS7 !T T 1T7 17t T5i7 07 0.5Private - - 0.1 0.2 0.2 - - -

Chemicals 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.7 3.2 6.5 6.4 5.6Public cj O 6 0.4 0.6 2.9 6.2 6.1 5.3Private - 0.2 o.6 0.1 0.3 0.3 .0.3 0.3

Thxtiles 1 3.Public 7 m m m :02 07;PriVate 0.1 0.q 0.7 o.6 2.h 0.7 2.1 1.8

Wood and furniture 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0 0.2 0.4 0.0Public 0.1 0.2 - - 0.2- T017 -Private - 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 - -

Paper, printing, miscellaneous 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.0 1.9 4.0 1.0 0.7l^UDiiC -L1 V.< d.4 L .U -Lv -J. .U U

Private - 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.2TTA 7. 26.8 12.7 13.0 12.L 16.3 21.0 17.2 13.1

Public 26.7 11.1 9.4 8.1 10.0 17.7 13.6 9.9Private 0.1 1.6 3.6 4.3 6.3 3.3 3.6 3.2

olo-ce: S.E.P.v,N ,

Table

CAPITAL TRAJSACTIONS OF NON-FINANCIAL ENTERPRISES

Actual Provisional Forecast

U:ir:;; Ac 1966 Q 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972

I m-o:::i ill\e::tjierlt7 72.4 70.4 65.9 73.9 100.3 105.8 107.6

" s i'. is : U.s ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-4-V 0 . 1 - T, 1. 72 ___7~5T:-rusin.rI to Geneeral Government 7 T T7_t _ _ g TT

epot:1 Is; to i.he Treasuiry 0.4 - - 6.8 3.7 3.6 2.9 3.5

bond 2.6 2.1 4.0 1.7 - - - -

o.8 2.0 2.1 0.7 0.8 o.6 o.6 o.6

Tr:u':;lozor f¶. liouseholds - - 0.1 - - - - -

to banks 11.6 26.9 8.4 21.7 23.0 18.1 17.2 19.5

io-.1i 'tepiov3s) AsR 1Q 1 6.7 11.2 12.0 6.7 7.6 9.7

hi;e . 1Aei:iiIS ) 6. 19 1.7 6.7 7.2 6.6 7.6 8.3

3.5 7.6 - 3.8 3.8 4.8 2.0 1.4

; ii .'eigel debt 10.3 13.1 18.3 21.7 23.7 15.1 *5.7 15.3

! : .......s! 107.5 119.6 103.4 116.3 120.6 150.8 ibo.5 147.9

26.8 36.2 31.3 48.5 57.4 62.6 65.5 67.6

____________________ u:£:L ! e2.4 1 18 1 Th.h 15.5 16.9 15.0 I3.2

l:lrr! i, : lunlm 1.' 110 )i 1.2 2.3 1.7 1.1

.-.;:i:ll -iTWill s;ies 12.14 11.0 11.1 13.5 12.l4 11-5 12~. 2 I1 1.

:p vi' on \ ; l e lt;I.l:: - - 2.2 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 L.1.

! . >eI:;r)in{ I.ti; t. t0ihe Tieasmiry - 0.5 4.1 - - -

hr I-t :: - 0.3 0.5 ).2 1.0 - - -

Vial iiohsepholu:i - - - 0.° 0.3 2.2 3.0 s.s

_____ XI: zvi20.4 34.1 25.7 20.5 19.6 17.7 21.5 22.9

: A ! -I lilt :Ir it ) I 6.2 9.4 7.7 5.2 5.0

-lli¾0ll:Tn iid 1.log-leTsn) 34 3- 15.2 15.2 10.1 10.0 15.5 17.9

( !iitb W !,ign0 ic.iit (5.9) (1.3) (4-.) (6.6) (1.7) (6.5) (8.6) (0.7)

,\II.wj':; - - 9.5 - 0.1 - t).8

iCre3 I. :ild invesjJ¶nt.s 57 .9 37.5 29-3 31.6 27.8 53.5 ;.14 .u 3

cre(j it 18.6 14.5 7.7 10.1 9.8 13.5 10.9 9.3

Ir 1t. mit, aIia 1u cretil t 6i.u l.0 L.I ?2.6 0.9 2.3 2.;tI Blv ,iiilt 13.5, 7.2 7.8 5.8 7.8 19.6 21.IJ 22.1

pi 1i:, t i!Irl 9.0 4.8 9.7 6.7 8.1 6.9 5.1 b.bI, z:t!s 1.0 i. 1.1i 1.2

6.4 0.2

Sto: .;.c;.P.F.N. and mission estimates f'or 1968

am?rtFLiq W1199

csi -c ZL""

AzTi

-n- -IqW 6967 (ME)L 06 09 CZ 79 001 M6c

'A E961(ooo'T --I -1- uti ("'-S)

Om Ins,)a OITI ziii (ZUEDX)c Lot 0 rt7. ftr.Td.

T 9W, gT[.1 LS r= 5TT J-oz," ;T6 DW qu oli orl ....... F. fAWm �ci p--d. DM'

PI. T. , ! U6.06L, ;/5-m 'ACZ,q 05(10i )96-T 59cli 9 on', ;/5-4sa %61

o W-9 �Eoq Z-9TIK 9 C6 SLT OM ZL6T di ..n.PMZs OC-1 Wom ST16c 075.

ZLZ -/ST'OT, am' T 6961 Wintd Iq�M'W 'Joi -- Hm cil 99 96

ti) 4-T-qc Mi 6911 5ZE 4/519a 1.15 -14%� OCO' I 696111-z -11C 3c� 6LI sz DZI 4-b./ aa 39 0;

u 51 OL 5T 05 .,.;b. ooo' I U6

9 I u ci 091 Lgt 051 oce ..-b./-j-qa 9c in. ooo It TJ61 9-UR P-d--f0 "I 0,1 19 9z V O'l21 -07 *-T 19-109

P.Tq.- -1 --W-U9 799 099 WET 101 q-.- .9- -q-. (TILS) X-�4T:, 5 WI, Tt 091:m )X, I 9-7 vis) Ts 1-tiiz

M 057 El 90( P.Tq- -q-.ptq_:_ (TTIV) V-n6z u 151 541 trz scg,La ou P- TwgF;Qe', L

wnj.1�� ooo'l ZL61 .W"o -V,L.. .wn "I'll DTI OCL Z91C 09L OOT ZZT'T 1/5zm G'6

v - Mf,, on Imia -1 -I-n- C-DO'l 1161 /� W-T-d iz Mr=-T-tnw 5;-wP9 -1 0 T^.. rwoz 2-z N 001: 9( - se - 9C 19 L/S-esm 0011 6961 Qvs) 1-19 1 05C 00 czl 051 M COT S61 &nslm OCT .,�Tj OW'l 6961 (mm)

oc I:T OL OL 59 (a 59c .�nrvroa 065, C -U"Tts-�VGzli 5 0 & ,= I T, oor T.M Obil Ln0 wi

L/5-ca ooi: 1� M-% P`m- OOO'l ...T-Caou'l ooolt ooz OU'l oszlz ois, OS15; Os 9 I/f: 93 ooo, I -1m d P --% -';-n- OOO'l C161j. -1 .%�- IC U6105e 'T T-z oOll'T

Z61 Z61 4/= Oa izOLI sTir Oct OLT 60 COIE P-1- M.& J- --n -FI.- 000' I 696TWE on 09C 099 099 J.,O-Cfa O:O( -200C 09.1

516 Its-Om o of %55 po�'W. -T. J. wo' I ZL61T. Lm SW M SCL SW

%ZS pn.^-M. nwr i-"CaOR 09C nt LEE SM sti Avo, M 'D, P-T 44- 000', u6T P.0 ZI %55 M�-- -1. Om.,M ooc 55

112'TW (5, I P.,-- . P-T -r^- ooo'T ZJ61 'Mlggo-el. a'iilzLK 2 OR, i

U61 -rml t-waon, r OD?:z OOS:'I OT9:1 oLq:z OT6 tvz E OW. .;T.Q-5 jInOOO:C oos:;! ocs: I =),T Z161 19-TVODO 5 000 000,6 WS1 -*TW"-W'4-RTVK

095 6 .1 C 005 I oo�,z on,q 005:1 ool ODW a001 "I VT OOD, 5 O(WOT ooe 5 OD? 0 ODI C 000 WIOr9 5,1 oss oo),T 069 ocall occ on oaolx osclic 05cli ODrL "-M'I 'M�ooo 'T 04's,M, I 1.1- M - 0,f ONf OV;a 0'a V�-ie00, 1- ML TZ I't rtM g 'T ri

-FMIR MT 79-TIR mm rgm %M in swot ewlia- 'AM

MIMR W.-M T-W,,7- dosm-do I-TPTM)T.-Tirm vem rnIT-1 T�TIT-i T-A Jo %-D pm� foT, Tfto to--d-3 r-L ,.-4 .-M lZzA. .0 X�-v.23-j aft.-A

W-an- o-OU-c- W uf�J:0� i-A

nqs

-ab:e .,

i;;72RI'AL i--A AtID -LAN J 'hS F ICP2F2 -' '62-72

AverageAnmual A,cnodatin Azc-l _A rer AUf.1 'rulSe Anm-.l Visitor Arnu&a Restient Annual lAvCth Armgal Tow=s AnurL

Annual Znvesttent Increalse Avaiiable r.crease JiwsLt-ors Increiias Usitors Increiase 5b-tgh%z Increase 3edn±gh-s Increase of -tay Inerease Recsipts IncreiaeYear ;tn Teur=i: S (Seda' cc) 'Ci S '000) S '000) l 0 SDa:p) % (D million) S

Year ~ ~ , Zillion) (Bes;_____D..

Hiistorical

lf2 3.0 '_ .,7' .2 7 .G - 375. - 2L.4.6 - 7.5 - 2.0 -

f6 B8ase -fear *.0 333%, 5,72 : _ 7.' .? ̂ 7.2 .iS;% 54 437% 211.3 -13% 5.17 -31% 3.7 -85%

16. ;.1 *28S ' 7,5w; -32S 138.2 *33S 20.3 -I8% 6

94.-` 28.5% 212.6 .o.6% 5.02 - 3% 5.4 *46S

1j65 6.5 *27% 9,616 '28% 16s.e *20tC 1S.4 -24s 1 ,129.t. .63% 190.7 -10% 6.81 .1ii 9.2 .70%

1I66 10.6 *63% 17,06'1 -23% 2'6.Z *325C 30.6 '97% 1 638.ii .151 222.2 '17% 7.i9 .10% 13.6 -La%

1l67 12.8 *21S 16,78M .10% 2'1.1 * 6% 32.3 * 6% 2,030.1 2_S 225.2 .1.3% 6.78 .17% 16.4 *21%2/

1 j6W3 13.0 .1.5% 2L,,709 *31S 330.3 .a3'c . *61% 3,S02.3 ;52% 261 R .13% 9.33 * 6% 21.07 *26

Total 162-8 (7 Years) 55.0 241. 16,.6 71.3

Index / Average1963-/' Anual Growth Rate 325 27S 130 33% 15 26't 750 50% 570 42% 12L1 a.45% 16C1 12.5% 567 42100/ (5 Tears)

Plan Project os

19t, 14.5 * 8,0oo 394.0 86.0 4,20 0

.0 3100 10.7'0 27.0

1970 15.0 .10,0(R) 070.0 120.0 5,500.0) 360.0 11.i70 311.0

1 71 15.0 *11,00t 561.0 119.0 6,700.0 415.0 11.56 135.0

197'2 15.5 .11 _670.0 _o.o 8,000.0D 485.0 12.()0 :9.0

Total 1 967-72 60.c 40°-°° 2O9S.0 405.0

Index / Average1963-/' Ama.1 Orovt Rate 387 4.5% 1 ,131 27% 639 19% 111 10% 1,585 27% 230 17% 232 6.5% 1J,054 1t6.8%

100/ over 1968

1/ Including jLnfraBtructure

2/ Ravised

Source _ .G0.T.T.

aa ~ ~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ iw 12M r a1oz

Freight

AvailAble carrying ceqp cit (t) 6,4iQ8 7,318 7,706 o, 15,) 0 ,Li, `Ton km (nillion) 126 _ Ik zr " , 5

P-=,r1)

Seat available 37,7Y3 39,103 47,905 52,267 5c,7 4I 11.1Paseer km (miion) o 70h11 9 4 ° .L b01.01'

Traffic anita (ton k and pamengor km) (millioa) ; ,4 ;.;'?Z I, ,1'

2. fijLThhII=

Freight (ton km) (million)

Phosphate 519 557 654 721 737 ii, , !ron ore 174 1Y; 23iOther 9

Faeeager (paeseiger ai)(b.lin)

Main lines 310 335 3i1 Vl4 381. 60 I1Suburban lines -' 4 , 42.1 3A .l.l .,__ ,)4l

zIUt S^a&s ]-<zi1 ]~~~~1,77 lia I. _0& l

Tra.f.i -,it. (ton, km nd pe.*.r km) (mlilrmj) 114 lo I._ o

3. a QFFN (Cni) (tnouand tona)

Import - Pxort 925 811 87L, 985 1,11 1. '(,Shipping btemen Freign Ports 316 44. b7Y hlO 2to '.' 1

Co. Shppn 1e s J j I!a 3 :4 '

L. .a. TRANIBRT (Tunis Air)

Paseenger

ecat-am offered (mdllion) 130 162 198 2.j 88 v7passenger-_L (million) 2 L9 iy 19 i,

Freight

ton-km offered (million) 14 16 20 22 29 11 I Iwoton-km ued (mdllion) 9 1 - 2 -- 17 ,8

Traffic Units (ton km nd paseenger ke) (millon) _ 2 15. AigLQim

Unloaded (thoueand tons)

General Carlo 713 770 721, 757 loi IIbulk Comditiee 160 179 190 552 ?e'i ,..Crude Oil end Petroleum i5j~ 1 270 I2aYh 11 19 I-71

12141 I-Uk 2,219 ~~~~~~~~ 2(326 -.797

Loaded (thoueend ton)

General Cargo 595 003 4.9, 4.o .1,"Bulk C .. ditiee 1;146 lAA66' l195K L.!-2Petroleum Product

lK anTsteTIusaJ AIZaVKIO

lorments (thouesands) 1.u i S3.5

3 Freighft (thousand tone) LI LA LIi L; 2.2 .LL JL/..PFazengers

Regular Flight 286 303 th , N.A.Ghxrter _71 iso

7-il 17 22If S7 (.S I z A

Traffic unite 189.5 2 . i 2 7 -A. y I .L .

J/ Excluding taxis and hire vehicles.

2/ bsed on 8 onthe acoaxl ftgure.J/ Nastlote baed on 3 etts ectuml data.

On 'hab -- Or: sqar fit.

5E xacluding 1968 rem.lta.

~~I 111 n

I i-HI I ~~i-i I- ii

J P211 1 I~~~~~?4I ~ N 0 I

fl~ ~ 411 al 11

* a ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~' VI II

~~~11 II~~~~ z1

1 3

Table 4

Oeneral Government - Savin'sAaillion dinars) L

Fourth Plan1965 1966 1267 1968 1969 7O 197 II)/2

Provisional Ec. Budget

Current RevenLe 122.5 9J 21 150.4 168.8 1752.9 19.l 212 .

A. Central Goveriment 103.8 116.3 120.1 125.1 141.5 150.3 162.6 178.8B. Local Authorities 5.8 7.5 5.9 6.3 6.9 8.0 8.8 9.kC. Social Security 12.7 15.0 16.5 ,8.3 19.5 20.7 21.8 22.9D. Non-Budgetized!/ 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8

Current Expenditure 101.7 117.8 127.6 41.2 149.1 157.1 166.9 1771

A. Central GoverrLnent 78.9 92.6 99.9 112.0 119.6 126.0 )3I .3 143.3B. Local Authorities 71. 8.2 u .14 .0 10.3 11.3 12.3 I1.3

C. Social Sccurity 8.7 9.9 10.3 11.0 11.5 12.2 12.9 ]3.5D. Non-Budgetised 1/ 7.0 7.1 9.0 9.2 7.7 7.6 7.12 7. 0

Current Surplus 20.8 21.5 15. 9.2 19.7 22.8 27.2 3q.0

A. Ccntral COrn,-mnt .9 7 20.2 13. 21.0 21 28.3

B. Local Authorities -1.3 -0.7 -2.5 -2.7 -3.1 -3.3 -3.5 -3.9C. Social Security 4.0 5.1 6.2 7.3 8.0 8.5 8.9 9. D. Non-Budgetized 1J -6.8 -6.6 -8.5 -8.B -6.8 -6.7 -65 -6.2

Current Surplus as % ofGDP at market prices 1.2 41.2 2.9 1.6 3.1 3.5 3 9 4.

Current Surplus as % ofGeneral Cover"nent CapitalExpenditure 41.7 31.4 20.6 11.7 22.8 28.3 33.8 ;, yV

1J/ Financed through external resources.

Source : S.E.P.E.N.

Taple 43

General CovernmentJCapital Accounttmiiion dinars)

Four Year Plan Projections

1965 1966 1967 1968 196-9 -19-70- ]-- 97Provisionlal Ec. ludget

Tot.a] C Op;ua3 Ott.lays 67.2 68.3 7l.7 78.2 86.lh 80.h 80.3 87.9

Gro-s F'ixed 11vc5st.nent. b7.li 148.2 46.1 b3.2 55.8 47.4 4.87 51i.94~~~~~~~~~~~~ t'ii; II'F Io'lclics lst l 13- 18.17. 16 'IC 15. I). 9~~ ~~~''-' ~~~~~11 .U IL .11 .)> -L, Lu.J. A -I*. Li ~ ~ - .". -...

Deb)t AiiI(tioH,,>:-tionl 3.1 3.0 10.3 12.2 10.A 13.7 12.9 15.2Loan.s; aoni1 Adv;1nccn l.O 2.6 3.5 3.7 2.3 2.5 - -Others; 1/ 0.9 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.11 2.8 2.9

Curven1t. Siuwp)i 20.8 21.5 15.14 9.2 19.7 22.8 27.2 35.o

Overl1l. Cash Deficit LA61. A.6. 9.3 69s0 66.7 070 h 1.1 ,>2.9

DCnnCSLAC Iiic ~ l.ll.ln( , 10.o 13.3 1.5 26.7 11.1 10.0 9.0 12.l,-. 6 3.75ih5.

ea n ; l g sy 1t. n0.3 1. -i.0 2. iPublic IYorrucrng 3.8 3.0 8.3 5.2 - - - _

___ ~ f (. A I 0 1I / ,r IA I. r Il:: [f _t: __I!' -A1( ,.6 6. -1.°. 16. 6.l.3 10.0 10.0

}'1tell11 F3i:l w inF 35.X 33.5 57.8 b2.3 1 67.6 1ll.1 ho.5

]/ Net. credit frorm B. anking .System less Social Security deposits with Banks, Trainsfers frc:. enter-pI'.hCe and proeeccd of sales of assets.

2/ Moi;ily purchnse of land and war damages.

Soure: S.E.P.E.N.

Table 44

General Government - Functional Classificationof Public F.ecnditure

(million dinars)

Current Expenditure Capital Expe nd i tt re1960 196 l9/13F96 1 960 F1 A$ o

Adrnini tran'ct ^ ionS 36h6 hJo hL. .9 6o.J, 61.3 19.5 20.2 7.6 9.7 1.2.3

Defonse 9.8 9.6 7.4 9.1 8.6 - - - - -

Other Functions 26.8 30.5 37.5 51.3 52.7 - - - _ _

Social Fucetions 25.8 Lto.5 42.5 61.3 65.7 2.7 7.8 11.6 1A.5 15AI

Education 11.6 22.9 23.7 36.3 39.4 2.2 6.7 11.0 13.6 ]3.5

Health 5.8 8.1 8.9 11.8 12.3 0.5 1.1 0.6 0.9 1.6

Social Security 8.4 9.5 9.9 13.2 14.0 - - - - -

Economic Functions 8.6 9.1 11.5 12.5 12.7 17.8 33.8 1 3.3 1i3.3 !;O.(

Agriculture 2.1 2.9 2.6 3.5 3.7 10.7 21.9 26.6 18.3 23.',

Industry 1.5 0.11 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.1 3.1, 3.2 6.8 5.';

Transportation 2.4 3.5 h4.7 h4. 4-1 h.2 3.1 5.li 6.o 12.6

Housilng 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.8 ,.lh h.2 1.7 2.

Other i.h 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.0 - i.0 3.9 'L.o 6:.

Unclassifiedl/ - - 3.0 7.0 9.1 - -. 10.6 15.3 13.1

GRAND TOTAL 71.0 89.7 101.9 11l.2 1119.1 o0.0 62.0 73.1 t82.8 .11

1/ IMootly repayneent of intercst and principal.

Source : S.E.P.E.N.

Table 45

Sumary of Central Government Operations(million dinars)

Fourth Plan Projections196L 196 1966 1967 1966 1969 Lg70 1971 1972

Provisional Ec. Budget'

. Cur rIiri t Rpenditure 7J2. 64.0 2 105.5 117.5 125.4 131.3 139.9 1t,9.l

Currut, Surplus 19.2 2 8.6 20.4 22 26.3 3h.3

C.ipitt Expenditure 56.2 8 .1 60.8 63.0 68.6 67.2 68.7 78.0

- Grois F'ixed Investinent 37.3 39.3 39.0 36.o 31.7 42.4 37.1 39.9 h7.8- Tran;sfer to Enterprises 7.3 14.8 13.0 14.0 18.1 15.0 16.4 15.9 11,.9

- Others Ii.O 0.9 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.8 Oza io4 o 0 .

vr.a-ll Cash Dericit 35.0 36.3 1. 43.1 4 48.2 Lb.7 tb2. 63.8

DovrnicLc FitnRncing 19.5 12.4 12.6 1.6 21.1 13.1 13.6 15.6

- flanking System, net 4.8 2.6 5.4 -0.6 2.3 5.0 2.8 2.5 5.6- l'ublirc 1orrowing 5.8 6.6 2.8 6.6 5.2 - - -- Uo;* or Trcanury Funds 8.9 5.2 4.4 -4.4 16.1 6.1 10.3 10.0 10.0

Ext,mina.1 P'iranc1] ~ 15.5 gL 9-1; 41.5 2 37 - 31.6 29.9 28.2

Source S.E.P.FJi.

Table 46

Central Government Current Expenditure(million dinars)

19641 1965 1966 1967 1968_ 1969_Provisional Ee. Bucdget

Budget, Title I 66.0 8 4.3 98.3 105.2 117.4 131.3

National Assembly 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3Presidency of Republic 2.6 3.3 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8Foreign Affairs 1.8 2.3 2.4 2.9 3.1 3.5National Defense 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.3 7.3 7.0Justice 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.0Interior 6.9 7.1 8.5 8.9 10.6 10.2Pla.n ar.d National Economy 15.5 28.0 32.3 34.0 37.0 hi.6Public Works and Housing 4.8 5.0 5.9 5.8 6.4 6.5Educatti on 17 203 2 ). I 2 3 0. 1 35.7

Health 8.0 8.0 9.0 9.6 11.8 12.4IYouth Sports and Social Affairs 1.7 2.6 3.3 h.6 5.5 5.8Cultural Affairs and Information 1.1 1.6 2.3 2.4, 2.6 2.5

Less Capital Transfers under previousheadings 4.9 li.6 17.3 17.5 11.8 18.1.

Total Current Exqenditure out of~Title I 61.1 69.7 81.0 87.7 105.6 112.8

Other Treasury AccouVnjA 8.9 1..3 15.5 17.8 12.1 12.6

Grand Total 72.7 84.0 96.5 105.5 117,5 125.1

Source : S.E.P.E.N.

Table 47 Ca O t t am 3 (m i.. d )

1960 1961 1962 1966 .rovi4oL.l to R odAyt1960 1 Mc1 1-~~_162 1 96S4 1 S65 1 s6 67 In 9bB >

Direct Taxes j4- Ijg 1.A1 11.6 U&2 jj 20.0 1.S 21.0 26.8

- Incm, Tax 8.8 9.9 8.9 9.1 10.8 11.9 18.3 1.9 19.5 2b.bAgriculural Tame 2.2 2.6 1.2 2.5 2.4 1.9 1.7 1.0 1.5 2.4

Indirect Taes 411.7 42.3 -43.7 47.4 55.1 62.9 69.1 69.8 72.2 80.2

- Tan fooda and Transport* 7.8 7.6 8.6 7.9 9.3 8.7 8.1 8.9 12.1 11.9- Cuat.s Dutines 10.2 7.8 8.7 9.8 11.3 16.0 16.a 11h.0 12.3 15.0

Import Duties (8.2) (5.8) (6.6) (7.7) (8.8) (9.6) (9.7) (8.6) (6.7) (8.8)Cuitme Fo mAlita Tax (1..n N1-h1 4I5h (14i (1A) *7 21 (2_2 (2'Al (1.) (2 .LSpecial TiporsrT Tax an Exports - - - - - O i -3.7:5 i2j (2.7) (2.7)

- Rgirat4con Tax 3,2 3.2 2.9 3.0 3.4 3.7 3.9 3.7 4.2 13.8- Turnover Tar 15=6 14i9 15. 1?.6 21i2 24O.1 287 2g.B 28.6 3b.2

of *Mch :

Production Tax o0i Imports (9.5) (8.6) (9.0) (9.9) (12.5) (13.5) (15.9) (15.5) (13.3) (16.4)Gonmj_tion Te ^ -o Nrta_ (1-2' (1J2 (1.2) (I X (21 2 2 {2.7)productlion Tax on Datlc Products (3.3) (3.14) (3Q ) (3.55 (13.3) (5.1) (6.2) (6.7) (7.1) (C-monption Tax on Dotlo Praducts (0.3) (o.0a) (0.4a) (0.7) (0.8) (1.0) (1.3) (1.7) (1.9) (2.2)Ser,_O r (0.7) (1.) .1.0.) (1.1) ( 1.2) ( 2-0 n 2 .4A t3 (- I, 2

- lovernmont Monopolies 7.9 8.8 8.2 9.1 9.9 10.h 12.0 13.4 i4.9 14.3

Other Duties -,nd T-.---. ~.JJ.L .1 Il ±. 0 .±. ±l L2. ' nf a 4Lat .I .91 ' SI

Petrols= Revenues oL2 1.5 2.2 2,L 5*3 72 10,6 14.0

- Ftpiline Royalties 0.2 0.4 1.5 2.2 2.4 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.5 5.4- CIT Revenue - - - - - - . 2.3 6.1 8.6

Other Revenues 3.4 3.1 1,7 3.2 3.6 4.7 6.o 6.1 6.5 6.9

Total Budret Title T 60n L S.2 cR-i J- 7,Z g 8A-1 i, 1nAR 11i3,3 i Ia

Other Treasury Accounts 12.7 12.6 13,7 11.9 16.1 19 18.1 17,6 12.8 i135

Lrand Total 73.1 71.8 71.8 77.5 91.9 107.5 119.1 123.2 126.1 t45.8

/t In 1968, an mount of about D 5 alUien for cvene which up to 1967 accrue tothe Special Treasury Pundo, has been integrated ^i. Titlo I.

Source 2 S.E.P.4.N.

Table 48

DE'EVOilPNT Dl'uICATDRS OF IDVNXY AND CREDIT

Grovt,h Growth GrowthFate Rate Rate

i.96i1-9(54 1964-1XcaB 19663-1972 164 1968 1972

Monetisation

Money 11.9% 6.8% 5-7S Share of agricuLture in sbort-term credit rtattanding 3.1$ 8.58% 11.3%

MO*ney t quasi-mnDey 13.8% 9. 7 .5% Percent of arrears in ahort-term credit outstanding toagriculture 67.2% 49.d; 67.3%

GDP at ccnstant market prices 4.!4 3.0% 6.5%Share of industry a1d services in abort.-ters credit

Agricultiure at constant factor cost 3.9% - 6.7% 5.1% outetanding 96.9% 91.2% 88.7%

ManufactuLring at constant factor cost 5 .4 5.1% 10.1% Share of agriculturel in medium and long.-term creditoutstanding 12.9% 27 .7%9 47.3%

ToaLrism aLnd trale at constant factor cost 5.5% 3.3% 10.3%Share of housing in medium and lcng-tenr credit

GDP at current imarket prices 5.8% 7.1% 6.8% outstanding 36.2% 26.0C1 24.5%

Gross investment at current market prices 15.5' 2.9% 8.6; Share of industry anud services in mediza and loog-teamcredit outstanding 50.9% 5 4

6.3% 28.2%

Credit tc Government L.I%

Credit to enterprises and hcoLsehold. 18.2% 8.7%

Short-term cr-edit 15.1% 4.51Medium and long-term credit. 16.2% 1Other neg. -:os.

Liquidity 1961 1962 19f 16L. 1?65 1966 1967 1966 196? 1L970 1971 1972

Mone7y/GDP ait current market prices 25.9 2c.3 33.1 30.6 27.i 3C.1 2?.6 30.5 29.2 29.6 29.5 29.2

Money -quasi-money/GDF at current market prices 28.9 11.8 - 3.9 A. 3.2 7.7- 39.1 38.5;. 39.5 i0 0 ;G.2

Percent of money held ouitside the barnidng system 93.5f ?u.z i 5.w% jS.7% 96 .1% 97.05 96.6%

. rce i a.z .:en-ral Bank

Table 49

?mTlrgTZ OF D1170T jg7 I UAE!K; 126-1967

(dinar figures in millions)

1561 1962 1963 1964 16, 1966 1967

Number of bank; l 17 14 i

Of which Tunisian banks 8 8 8 9 10 10 11

.French bar-- 8 7 4. 3 3 3 2Other Loreign banks 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Of whAch private banks 14 14 11 10 11 12 12

stat. controlled banks 4 3 3 4 4 3 3

EquN t 5 8.0 a 7.6 11.8 14.0 16.5 20.0

Of which Tniilan baa 3.9 5e3 6.6 10.5 12=7 15.1 18.?

French banks 1.4 1.6 1.3 .9 .9 1.0 .8Other foreign banks .4 .5 .4 .4 .4 .4 .5

Of which orivate banks 3.0 3.14 3.7 4.1 5.1 8.0 9.4state controlled banks 2.7 4.6 3.9 7.7 8.9 8.5 1u.6

[ebtf/ 73.6 86.5 116.7 128.8 144 .9 169.6 127.0

vr whleh Tuniezan banks 43:1 55.9 93.9 110.3 125.7 147.3 170.5French banks 26.1 28.8 20.9 16.1 16.5 19.3 12.8Other foreign banks 1.1 1.8 1.9 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.7

Of which private banks 43.3 5o.3 56.9 63.5 71.0 88.3 88.5stats controlled banks 30.3 36.2 59.8 65.3 73.9 81.3 98.5

Of which Tunisiaon banks 9% YS 7% 9% lo% lo% 11%Frenah banks 5% S% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6%Other foretgn banks 3.' 27% 22% 15% 14% 13% 13%

Of which privato banks 7% 7% 7% 6% 7% 9% 11%state controlled banks 9S 11% 8% 12% 12% 11% 11%

Total Balance Seest 99.3 123.2 162.4 185.8 218.3 259.5 279.9

Of which privat. banks 50.2 62.1 70.6 83.1 91.3 115.0 117.5state owned banks 49.1 61.1 91.8 102.7 127.0 144.5 162.4share of state owned banks 149% 49% 57% 55% 58% 1 56% 58%

Titm d*posits .9 5.2 8.8 12.14 22.u 30.3 30 3

Dr,and deposits 55 3 63.1 82.5 84.7 86.3 94.7 1020

Of private banks 33.z 38.5 43.9 46.8 50.3 59.6 59.3Of state controlled banks 22.1 24.6 38.6 37.9 30.0 35.1 42.7Share of state controlled banks 39% 39% 47% 45% 42% 37% h12%

Liquidity ratio, all banks- 63% 68% 69% 64S 67% 66% 61%

Ridiscountable credit he!d by banlk 15-3 181 21 Q 8.5 18.7 18.1 18.5

Of private banks v.8 9.3 9.0 10.7 12.7 13.9 15.5

Of state controlled banks 5.5 8.8 12.9 7.8 6.0 4.1 3.0

1 ercent of rediscountabie crsdit out ofall credits 5/ 95 25% 26% 19% 18% 114% 1%

Of priv te Ianki 37% 32% 31% 29% 33% 28% 29%Of state contrllrd tw.ka 16% .1' 214% 13% 9% 5% 3%

a/ Rediscountew credits out ot all creaditr- -14; 9y i>b1 12% 13% 11%

Percent. of medium-term credit rediscounted 28% 51% 31% 39% 315 29% 214%Per-ent of short term cr-dit of private

banks rediscounted 8% 1% 0.5% 3% 1% na. n.a.

Percent of short term credit of statecontrolled banks rediscoutnted 32% 13% 7% 12% 9% n.a. n.a.

Reserves n.a. 3.4 2.6 3.0 1.5' 2.8 2.2

esaervea ratioe n.a _ -nt C it

Equity/non-rediecountable 12% 13% 12S 15% 16% I 15%

Of private banks 18% 17% 181 16% 19% 22% 26%Of stiet coniLrolled banks 9% 11% 9% 15% 114% 11% 11%

a B (MAT (Agricultutral Cooperative Bank) in liquidation is considered a state-controlled banksirice 1Q61; 'VT was coniisdered a state-controlled bank until 1966, when it waa classifiedas a private bank: CFAT was classified before 1i67 as a French bank, and as a Tunisian bank

i, 11. 1 ,et.I1' Incrlude, equl ty retailln t earnings and provisions.

lInclude, sight and Lime 1 ispOnits, foreign short term liabilities, special advances (medlumantn long term 1 i 1b lit j.

1/ Short. ter, assets to short term liabilities..'*"All credits corre.ponds to credit to enterprcies and houiseholds and excludes short term

for-!gn z1aims.f' Reservps/Dem,and Isposits.

Source, Central Duank and I .. F.

Tab la 50

tDIUITAR!_SIRV)Cr 3 D OrF RTL) 1961-1972

(uilUiona of cdina.)

191 196 iqZj 164 12§5 .1966 ]J967 15,68 iw 19,70 57 19TI I

Foreigtn aaeta, net 30.3 12.5 5-3 - 3-1 - 6.7 . 14.9 - 21.0 - 14.9 9.7 4 1.3 - 9.3 + 15.3

Clkims an govnernmt net 25.9 51.9 76.3 78.4 87.4 94.6 92.2 56.1 99.0 102.9 2i06.5 113*0

Claims on entpriaeeB ancl househokld, net 79-8 87.5 108.1 129.4 150.7 187.8 204.9 227.4 251.7 271.5 29k.2 3l8.-3

Aknots - LabiLlities 136.0 u1.9 189.7 jO.7 231.4 267.5 3276.i. _-_6 341D 357 10_0

they 95.1 105.9 133.0 133.3 138.2 152.1 157.0 174.6 183.1 194.0 205.5 217.6

Q4ULi-eono7 10.8 13.0 17.2 22.8 32.2 41.6 .4.5 49-4 58.0 65.0 73.0 81.8

SWicilJ leMdilzg fmds 11.7 13.6 15;.5 18.3 25.4 29.1 32.4 39.2 49.0 564 65.9 7.5.9

Gonrmset laWing fumdJ ( 8.8) ( 9.7) I 11.4) ( 12.0) ( 1S5-0) ( 17-9) ( 19.9) ( 21-5) (23-7)( 8.2) C 8.4X) C l10.0)

foig aid Ct ( 4-0) ( 10-1) I 11-1) C 13.7) ( 17.6) ( 24.5) ( 30.1) ( 37-8) ( -5.5)

COinterpart flmd ( 3.5) ( 5.2) ( 5.5) ( 5.5) ( 5.6) ( 6.6) ( 6.7) ( 6.6) ( 646) 646) ( 6.6) ( 6.7)

Capital accownta 4.9 6.8 8.2 11.1 13.5 15.7 19.0 23.1 27.0D 31.0 35.0 39.0

Othler, net 13.5 12.6 15.8 19.2 22.1 29.0 23.2 21.3 23.9 29.1 30.6 32.3

Of which coilmt.rpar ftmda deposiledat the Treavury n.E. r.a. n.a. n.a. C 6-7) C 2.4) ( 2.3) 146)

]nad C *8) ( 1-1) C 0.9) ( 1.1) C 1.5) IC 2.8) ( 2.9) n3.A.

Vl:ie FSR F7E77~~ ttmmisian coIrnterpert to PSA.

Sotkrces: Centra.l Bank, S.L.P R.N., and for 191-196tL Balance Sheets of' Mk and STB.

Table 51

Da='TIC. yDMrb-MM ^ wf (1964-19,M)

(mililone of dinirs)

Prov1- nan Projections1~~64 1965 19~~ ejonal 2

1964 165 1966 1967 1968 6 1970 1971 1972

Credit to Oovernment 80.9 87.h h6 42 9 ,10 102 1Q6 5

Central Bank, net 39.1 39.7 46.2 44.6 43.9 46.9 47.9 48.9 51.4C omer c4 . a' l b 2, ,4 2t .7 26. t 26.6 2t7.0 2 . 6 3 0 .3 31.8 3 I .6Post office 11.7 14.6 15.6 14.5 17.1 16.5 17.3 18.0 18.7Savings funds 4.7 5.4 6.1 6.5 7.1 7.0 7.4 7.8 8.3

Gredit to enterprises andhouseholds 133.6 150.7 187.8 204.9 227.4 251.7 271.5 294.2 318.3

Short term 92.5 100.0 130.9 lL9.1 162.4 162.3 172.6 185.2 195.9Agriculture:' . 2-9) ( 4.7) ( 5.9) ( 9.9) 14J3) ( 9.7) ( 10.6) (16.5) (22;1)Indusiry and searvicea/' C 89.6) ( 95.3) (125.0) (139.2) (140.1) (152.6) (162.0) (168.7) (173.8)

Medium and long term 35e.6 ii7.2 _. 52.2 .113.1Agriculture / ( 4.6) ( 5.9) ( 9.0) ( 12.0) ( 18.0) ( 27.0) ( 34.5) ( 43.5) ( 53-5)Housing Y C/ 12.9) ( 1h.1) ( 15.7) ( 14.0) ( 16.9) ( 18.2) ( 22.0) ( 2514) ( 27.8)industry and aervices- ( 18.1) ( 27.2) ( 26.1) ( 26.2) ( 30.1) ( 36.9) ( 35.1) ( 32.8) ( 31.8)

Other 5.5 3.5 6.1 3.6 1.8 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3

TOTAL CREDIT 21LCA 238.1 2H2.l. 297.1 12C 35°7 317J7 I.nn,7 O31.3

L/ Scen Table 34U/ S.E.P.E.N. net figures 1961 to 1968; S.E.P.E.N. figurem of credit extenaion for 19 6 9- 1 972 1

Misaion estimate of debt service for 1969 through 1972,

1969 1970 1971 1972Credit exteision T"5 r -rx 5.4Debt service on new credit extended

after 196B ( - ) (0-3) (0.8) (1.5)Debt ervice on crod4t extended

before 1969 £7L (1-7) (1-6) J-_

Increase in credit outstanding 1.3 3.8 3.-4 2.14

e/ Residual.

Source: S.E.P.E.N., except for the sectoral breakdown.

FACTORS AF?ECTIDS DElNE SUPP?L 1962--1972 /1

(ir, nificns of dinare and cbanges In percent over past y0mr)

1962 i96 2§96 1%5 1966 l77 1968 19659 15170 1Mi 1972

t.D. Percet M.D. Percent M.D. PerceEt X.D. Percent .D. Percent M.D. Percmnt M.D. Percent !-D. Pct MD. P nt It D. Poe at I.D. Prcent

t10.8 L.4 27.1 25.6 0.3 0.2 4.9 3.7 13.9 1D.9 4.9 3.2 17.6 11.2 8.5 h.9 10.9 6.0 11.5 5.9 12.1 5.9

Iaela-aney 2.2 20.4 4.2 32.3 5.6 32.6 9.4 41.2 9.4 29.2 2.9 7.0 4.9 11.0 8.6 17 .4 7.0 12.1 8.o 12.3 8.8 12.1

__L 13.0 1;2 31.3 27.5 5.9 3.9 14.3 9.2 23.3 13.7 7.8 h.0 22.5 .1l 17'.1 7.6 17.9 7:! 19.5 5 2C .9 S

redit to governnent 26.0 102.0 24.4 h7.0 2.1 2.8 9.0 11.5 7.2 8.2 -2.h -2.5 2.9 3.1 3.9 4.1 3.9 3.9 3 . 3.5 6.5 6.1

redt to enterprisees and households 7.7 9.6 20.6 23.5 21.3 19.7 21.3 16.5 37.1 24.6 17.1 9.1 22.5 11.0 24.3 I0.7 19.8 7.9 22.7' 8.4 2h.1 8.2

ecia. 1ena fg funds -1.9 -16.2 -1.5 -1i.0 -2.8 -1-'.1 -7.1 -38.8 -3.7 -14.6 -3.3 -11.3 -6.8 -21.0 _ 9.8 -25.0 -7.6 -15.5 -9. i -16.L4 -10.0 -15.2

vereent lending ftxnda (-0.9) (-1.7) (-0.6) (-3-0) (_ 2.9) (-2.0) (-1.6) (- 2.2)(-.2) '--.6) (-2.8)1

r-eigD aId (-6.1) (-1.0) (-2.6) (-3.9) (- 6.9) (-5.6) (-7.-7) (- 7.7)

ounterpart f'nds (-1.7) (-0.,) - (-.1) (-1.0) (-0.1) ( 0.1) - - - ().1)

apital &CCo0ra -1.9 -35.8 -1.4-2-.6 -2.9 -35.- -2. -21.6 -2.2 -16.3 -3.3 -21.0 -1.1 -21.6 - 3.9 -16.9 -4.0 -14.8 -1.0 -12.9 - 6.0 -11.4

oreign Lasetes, net -17.8 neg. -7.2 zneg. -P8.L neg. -3 6 neg. .8.2 neg. -6.1 neg. 6.1 poe. 5.2 poe. 11.0 poe. 8.0 pos. 6.0 poll.

her iteea D.9 6.7 -3.2 -2,. -'.4 -21.5 -2 5 -15.i .6.9 -31.2 5.8 20.0 1.9 8.2 - 2.6 -12.2 -5.2 -21.7 -1.5 - 5.2 - 1.7 - '.6

poeaetivt Fug=nee correaipnd to eax-panonary tffectsnegative f.Lgmee o orrepxmd to contractionary offecup

7urcoe : S.E.P.E.N., 'entral Bank tnd for 1961-1968 Bhlance tkeets o! B.N.A. and S.T.B.

rable 53

P9E INDICES AnIl WAGE IENmCAmR

PRICE, INiiICE WAGE IMDICALMR_1962 Inx) zdz - IaC In 196I 3

W1,olesal.! Price Colat Of La.

-OtirGOP!' Doestically AeraV Wagp

I*licit GeensraLn Tdftritrl Produced L aporte General Personal Leisure and Per YearYears D)eflator index Food Goods Goods GooDds Index Food Bteaine TranswrtatiM CloW= Care lcelan.oua (In DU Inde

1962 100 10 O L0 DO lt)C I00 10 100 100 'LOO 100 100 LCO

1963 102.3 105.3 107.0 102.8 10LI.1 L07.1 102.7 101.7 100.1 L00.5 LL3.h 105.0 lCO.5 302 100

196u 104h.3 LLO.6 1L09.0 LL2.7 lOu.6 119.0 107.0 106.9 103.9 109.7 111J.6 107.6 103.9 283 93.7

i965 113.9 12h-7 L.7. 1235.0 Ll5.3 138.L Ul".1 115.2 109.6 1L6.9 L20.5 L11.8 107.6 304 100.7

1966 115.9 1'2?.O 120.0 112.3 19..19.3 13.6 L2.0 2.3 118.5 L11.2 328 08.6

1967 321.3 133.6 127.6 11i3.0 L'7.1 lLO.C 122.0 123.0 113.2 '127.6 127.5 122.0 130.8 344 1223.9

1968 121.6 1,38.1 133.9 1j44.2 133.0 1 45.5 125.0 125.9 16.1 139.8 128.7 132.2 116.9

1969 1J40.1 129.5 131.9 121.2 1h9.7 128.7 129.2 1L6.1(January

andFebruary)

1/ Based on salaries declared to the SociLal Security, covern1g about ono-third or salaried person outsidie agricultureo.2/ CaLcULated c GDP at mariket prices.

Scurce: S.E.P.E.N. and Central Bank

Table 54

FOREIGN TRADE AND NET SERVICES

(millions of dinars)

Net Services, BalanceImports Exports Balance Current Transfers, on Current

Years C.I.F. F.O.B. of Trade Adjustments Account

1950 51.5 39.8 -11.7 n.a. n..a.1951 63.8 37.9 -25.9 n.a. n.a.1952 64.9 40.2 -24.7 n.a. n.a.1953 60.1 39.1 -21.0 n.a. n.a.1954 59.5 44.5 -15.0 n.a. n.a.1955 63.3 37.L. -25.9 n.a. n.a.1956 68.o 39.3 -28.7 n.a. n.a.1957 63.4 54.2 - 9.2 n.a. n.a.1958 64.9 64.14 - 0.5 n.a. n.a.l_5_ 64.2 59.6 - 4.6 n.a. n.a.1960 o80.1 560.3 -29g.8 6.7 -23-.11 961 88.4 46.3 -42.1 9.L -3?.71962 90.9 48.7 -42.2 0.8I963 93.7 52.9 -1¢o08 - =0 1964 l/ li.8 57.3 -53.5 - 2.9 -56.L41965 129l 629, -ft. -1 .5 -0. 7

1966 131.2 73.7 -57.5 - 6.9 -6LJ}1967 137.-1 78 A4 -58 1 176 -70.3

1968 Revised 114.5 82.8 -31.7 - 8.4 -40.QoAo Plnn fl7 ii.6 Qllw5 - 1-§".1-X7.-

1970 Plan 153.0 98.0 -55.0 - 4.0 -59.o1071 Plnrt 15. 1 -55.5 -I =59 n1972 Plan 161.0 111.5 -49.5 - 3.0 -52.5

Sources: Statistiques du Comnerce Ext6rieur for trade figures 1950-1967;eOJ n.rt c1T. r _A. n "nCQf1 in a-. -….a.n.r.n.1,. .1aA wL>Ac0 LiAL ±7U-U71L 7u 1 Lor cuArreJILt aLcounILadjustments.

Note: Imports as defined by trade statistics include special trade,only. Adjustuments uo f.o.b. as defi ned by the Plan include tneaddition of "other" imports and the deduction of freight andinsurance charges. For 1960-1972 these adjustments are esti-mated to be equal, and thus imports c.i.f. as shown in thetrade statistics are equal to imports f.o.b. as shown in thebalance of payments.

a/ The par value of the Tunisian Dinar was changed from .42 perUS dollar to .5e5 per US doilar September 28, 1964.

N I P _f l 1 4 O. A A t- =O '0.C .0 IA.1 '4 0;; O ;; N _A -UN O O AJ4O 00U4. 0 S OI U

IR ... .0 04 , ~ S ss...O ' '.. . ...

0 0 777 ~~~~~~~'.¶1 ~~~~S'1'~0 .- 4 44444

- '0 0440 0~~~~S- a 0.,lO n a.4: 04: SS H 04.0 .. 400 0 -0 1- . 0 * '

I 0.04. C V\* 0 . I414 '014 0 0 044N NAL,4 -f. - - . *

C eSr__ _ , .S.S 4 u 0 O r N O- O -_ _ O N 4440_ c a40 0 S -40 $ ~ *~** ._~4 _ _. _ . 0 44

g 'i a.. .o 0± 2 °40 000.z1as j . 4 a 0 c . o-. 0 -- 0 .4 u =o.

:0- u e Is a I_ __a s s sSa ! -_- s.s. R S l

Z ,, ee -<sa- < sea,. 'es 'e; Z vvr ^ rlamvsor ,;;;;

._d ._0 40 ._n I * . .4 4 60 . '-I '0 44 IO' S. q. - s Ov 0 ro L'_ O e O 0 SN --° ot -4 o...4' -r- - - _. - - -s -o -lM E C -8 N -O O t s_: 8 S ~ p O O O O

r --̂ ;.- o:oor .0.0,0 ('40 ..4*'40 .-4400 00;4 0s C0 0 > . N. --. 0 0^ = t t.__ ._, 0 ;

._C . .~ _. .4. * 5 ., X0

c e i

C4C ~ ° S _S.°0jr E._S. r -4 -4r °4A0 2.4 IA 'flAN °0.0.O I 'lf C N;- O.4OD t -e_ Dmt 3 C O- M

w _ ~. -;.. r 2...~S .z... 0 -t- C. c. 4 - ? ? 0~~<tt<hc .rt 0 0 0 Oc uot

SN 440 C'. N 0.0 .4_l. N 0 C NV C. C I-(. 44 nO IA

0 R440 .0.000 0000B SS -000 ° °,0, t-S.0 0000 °, 0'__S0 SC.00 C- 000 D O OU CJ 02

v o;

| - ° * tK rs u e ¢-2. rto No:. -- ? '-2 -4. ~-0.* ~ - 4- ---4- SaJ ,R ve r-.- .,4| OC... _00 4.00, ° i-4'°0 C .. 41 -40 C-C C a 4-0S °4 0..__S.- ---- __.0 .4 4 0 _I 0., fit;-

o oCS r _ 0.400.^ -. 0 .-. 0 D-C 000 00 r e a 1 DO .4n-4. "C-4001t~ s «0..C

E * C ..

&~~~~~~~~~i es~~4-;.. , -

nl~~~~ ~ ~ ~~~~~ ,, 0. 0.0 0; 0|1t s = H '- s.,<

Table 56

IMPORTS VALUE 1960-1972

(millions of dinars)

Prcrvi-sional Plan Projection

Žo Ž1961 1962 1963 196Ž 1966 1967 168 1969 1970 1571 1972

Capital Goods 15.6 16.7 18. 22.0 29.5 40.6 33.9 29.6 3c)0.4 35.Q 46.0 48.0 150.0

Agricu3tural equiprment 1.1 0.9 0.7 1.3 2.1 2.2 2.2 0.9 1.7 n.a.. n.a. n.a. 5.a.Industr-ial ecluipmerit 14.5 15.8 17.6 20.7 27.8 38.L 31.7 28.7 26.7 n.a. n.a. n.a. il.a.

IntermediaLte anci Semi-finished Goods 19.2 iziS 22.4 4I 25.5 42.6 50.3 5215 42.3 D."; 61.0 63.5 !5 °Sulfur G.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.L 3.0 3.3 3.7 1L.8 5.1 6.6 7.5Soybean oil * * * 2.4 1.5 2.0 3.9 4.0 2.2 3.11 I4.7 5.0 5.6T'obacco 0.8 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.L 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5Paw cotton 0- * 0.2 0.2 o.4 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.7 2.2 3.1Cotton thread. 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.2 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.2 3.3 4.7 3.3 1.0Artificial fiber 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 1.0 1A. 1.6 1.7 1.5Iron and steeil tubes 0.4 2.2 c.8 1.1 1.0 1.9 2.3 1.6 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.3Iron and steell bars 1.14 1.5 1.6 1.6 2.6 o.8 3.2 0.8 1,0 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.3Sheets and profilesi 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.8 2.1 3.1 1.0 2.1 2.5 2.8 2.8WFire 0.2 S. c.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 o.L 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 o.5Other 1L.2 12.6 15.7 17.5 24.L 28.8 30.6 3L.2 27.3 32.0 35.9 38.0 140.0

EnerLy 6,. 7.4 5. 8 9 6.7 4.o 1.8 6. 3.0 3.5

Crude oil - - - 5 3.8 5.1 5.1 2.0 - 3.A - --Refinedl products 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.L 1.5 - - - - - -Coke - - - - .3 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.; 1.6 1.6 1.6Cther D.4 0.5 0.4L 0 3 0.5 o.5 o.L 0.5 o.5 1.2 1.L 1.9 1.9

Finished ConBmuer GoocLs 23.8 21.6 2.0 21.5 22.,r 22.0 20.8 21.6 17.6 19.0 19.0 19.0 i9.o0Synthette cloth . 1.5 2.3 2.3 3w 2.6 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.' i 0.5 0.5 0.7Cotton cloth 3.3 2.L 2.2 1.9 2.; 3.0 3.3 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3Other 18.6 17.3 l5.8 17.3 17.0 16. . 15.9 19.0 15.2 17.A 18.2 18.2 18.0

Cereals 5 13.L 11. s.o 2.7 S.6 8.2 17.4 1Cl.8 12.0 11.5 10.5 9.0

Wheat L.6 :1.3 8.1 L.5 2.2 6.7 6.9 13.1 9.9 10.1 9.6 8.5 6.6Earley 0.2 1.u 2.1 0.3 0.0 1.3 0.7 2.7 c.6 1.6 1.5 1.14 1.4Cther 01 0 -5 0.2 ;06 ;.6 1.6 0.3 0.3 0.4 o.6 1.0

lther Foojatuffs Ž0.1 V 2 0c L).5 - 5, 11.3 12.0 1i.6 12.0 12C % 13.5 L4.

Sugar 3.1 -7.-. 3.2 2.8 3.1 2.3 2. 2.7 2.8 2.SOther 7 . '7.1 . , .9 ..' . 7. 9.' .5.7

TOT/LL _ ' 1" I- 110. ''- .i2 -' 1.4 137.6 153.0 158.0 161.0

*Less t.sa D50,C9'.,ource: Statistiquese d. C.nercr Exterieir arc °.E.P.E.N.

TAI1E 57

UPORTS OF SELJYT6D CX)IMDDITIES(thouamndJ of etric ton)

1960 1961 1962 _63 1564 19156 IL96 1967 196 1969 17 1

Agrcultura Products

Cerealaflarduthat 116.0 33.2 28.7 1L6.1 50.h4 5.8 94.0 0.5 -I8 rley 68.7 - - U .4 23.4 - 13.9 0.6 *- - - - -

CilLrua 37.5 hL.9 38.0 30.9 43-5 l65,1 hh.3 49.4 26,0 40.0 45.1D 50.0 55.0Orsngpti (22.1) (27.8) :27.2) (20.8) (25.4) (32.8) (26.8) (37.2) (n.e.) (D.C.) (n.a,) (n_.) 6..Other (15.h) (134.1) (10.8) (10.1) (18.1) (13.3) (11.5) (12.2) (n.E.) (n.a.) (n.a.) (n..) (n..)

Dates 3.5 h.3 3.8 1.7 5.1 1.5 h.9 2.8 2.6 2.8 3.5 4.0A 50A1mondc 1.7 0.9 1.3 0.6 1.5 1.9 4.9 2.0 1,.6 2.0 2.0) 2.0 2.0Other fnuits 2.1 0.6 2.9 3.6 2.6 2.3 2.5 2.9 1.5 4.0 5.0 6.o 7.0Lire aaimals ard meat 2.3 1.6 2.8 3.7 3.2 5.6 l,.2 h.8 4.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0Fijbh and crustaceans 0.8 0.9 o.6 1.1 0.9 0.9 01.9 1.3 08 1.0 1.5 2.0 3.0OlLve oiL 24.4 44.2 53.6 29.0 5 1.h i.3 40.7 22.0 33.0 35.0 35A) 35.A 35.0wine 130.8 130.6 1L23.h 13J2.6 lIL3.2 7D.5 71.0 L02.7 61.5 65.0 65.) 65AI 65.0Preaeveci fruit. 5.8 5.4 7.6 5.0 9.7 5.0 6.0 6.9 5.0 5.0 7.0 8AI 10.0Preaerved vegetablea 2.0 2.0 3.0 7 .4 8.1 7.3 6.6 10. 4 6,.0 7.0 94) 12Al L4A.0

ldn.ralaJ and Vannfactures

Pbck phbopihate :L630.0 1627.0 1833.7 1971.9 2214.7 2260.7 2324.0 2299.9 2422.8 3300.0 3370A) 3575.0 36?0.0Superphoirphate 111.9 156.7 115.1 147.2 3L 4.8 257.1 1659.0 382.3 347,.3 375.0 396A) IXAI 435.0PbDophori.c acid - - - - - - - - . - - 50.0

IrDn ore :LOO.8 899.4 713.6 7657.9 8.30.8 910.2 876.0 77h.9 653.9 550.0 500.0 h50.0 IAO.0l^ad 17.2 19.5 15.6 13.3 1o.8 14.3 13..0 12.0 12.8 15.3 15.3 16.5C; 21.3Salt 88.7 1349.0 3L30.8 267.h 19h.7 378.3 275 .7 278.8 322.9 330.0 350.0 360.0 370.0

Crade oiL - - - - - 15.9 1566.0 2135.6 2790.0 2650.o 2150.0 2250.0

CaLlulose _ - _ _ 8.8 11.6 195.7 19.7 18.2 30.0 33-0 31.0 26.0

Source: Statiatiques du Commerce Exterieur and S.EP .E.N.

Table 58

GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION OF TUNISIA'S IMPORTS

(millions of dinars)

s i o'i I ,1

Origin I91 1A 93 1Q; 96 9t' 1/z l

EEC 57.7 59.8 61.1 6J1 .?' 70.9 77.4 7. 0<.

France 47.5 47.6 44.9 )l3.' 5n.6 !:5.1 3'

Federal Rep-ublic of te-many 4.1 3.6 4.2 6.! 6.9 7.7 10.i< .

Italy 4-5 5.9 9.2 6.7 8.8 10.7 c

Netherlands 1.1 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.9 3. ,

Belgium-Luxembourg °.5 1.3 0.9 1.1 ;.7 1.0 K? 7

rrvA 1X.9 S.:' < tz t~~~~4.: 10 . Q

of which:United Kingdom 2.4 2.8 3.6 1,.! s. .

Switzerland 0.3 0.3 0.3 0o o.6 1.0 .2Sweden 1.0 1.0 n 1. 1 . t X:, n , 7 1 . ;

Maghreb 1.4 0.7 0.9 >2 3. 1.7 1.'

Algeria 1.0 0.' 0.6 1. I. n.s .

Morocco 0.3 0.2 0.2 0. : 2.! u !,

Libya 0.1 * 0.1 0 .. ,.3 0.4 2

United States 13.2 14.5 10.3 1. .

Asia 2.31 2). 2.8 ,.C l. 2.1

Socialist Countries b." 2.8 5.6 7.t 8.6 13.3 I. 1 '

_est of the WJorld 4.7 5.5 7.4 1.7 99.3 .1 .t 1,

TOTAL 88.h 90.9 93.7 110.& 129.1 131.2 137.1 1 I.

oource: StatiStiques du Cornmerce Exterieur de la Tunisie.

Table 59

GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION OF TUNISIAIS EXPORTS

(millions of dinars)

Provi-sional

;pS tLnation 1961 1962 1963 196b j2tr 1966 1967 l96U,

31.i3 35.8 370 37,J, 30.9 hl.5 L0.9 38.2

1'r':mOtc ,'5.5 25.7 26.1 29.3 19.6 25.5 22.0 19.2Federal Republ]c.of Gertnany 0.8 0.6 o.8 1.4 2.1 5.1 7.5 9.11 1 Iy 8.1 9.0 5.8 7.6 9.5 10.5 8.9N1th.rands 0.8 1.2 0.6 o.6 1.3 ° A o-4 0.6irelgium-Luxembourg 0.1 * 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5

3.5 2.9 3.0 2.9 5.1 6.6 6oh 8.9

"niited Kingdom 2.9 2.3 '.1 2.2 3.3 3.2 2.5 3.05wi t ..erIand 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.9 3.1h 5.2.:w;eden 0.2 0. 0.2 0.3 1.b 1.1 0.3 0.7

.ti hreb 2.0 1.7 2 3. 4.3 5 .5 8=

AI geria 1.3 1.2 2.'1 2.1 2.3 1.6 0.7 1.7Aoroccc * * * 0.3 * 0.1 0.1 0.1Libya 0.7 0.5 0.7 2.1 1.6 3.6 b.7 6.j

Jli ted :;t,at.es 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.L 1.0 1.0 2.2 1.5

2.0 0.9 1.9 2.0 5.3 3.3 2.3 0.8

. a.I "ls t Co u nt ries 2. 2.6 1 .2 1.9 '.I 7, .1 1n. 7 I ,.A 16.5

: ol the ;'.orld b.o h.i b.7 6.o 9.6 6.3 8.5 .6

il, )J., C8, ,o tf7. I .0)O 7, ,7 7R 1

-(VI l)O': L.,Latistiques dlu Comnerce Ext6rieur de la Tunisia.

TABLE 60

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS(1965-1968)

(rmLillions of dinar)

1965 1966 1967 1968Provisional

Receipts 'Payments Balance. Receipts Payments Balance Receipts Payments Balance Receipts Payments Balanace

Merchandise, f.o.b. 62.? 123.2 -60.3 73.5 127.0 -53.5 7EI.4 137.3 -58.9 82.8 1114.5 -31.7Non factor services 35.8 46.5 -10.7 140.8 10.1 0.7 42.o 38.1 3.9 43.7 36.3 7.14

Total on goods and services 98.7 169.7 -71.0 1114.3 167.1 -5:2.8 120.4 175.4 -55-0 126.5 150.8 -24.3

Factor services 4.5 16.7 -12.2 5.5 19.7 -1lJ.2 6. 6 26.6 -20.0 6.7 28.8 -22.1Current transfers 3.1 o.6 2.5 2.9 0.3 2.6 5.1 0.I4 4.7 6.6 0.3 6.3

Total on current account 106.3 187.0 -80.7 122.7 187.1 -614.4 132.1 202.4 -70.3 140.1 179.9 -40.1

Public capLtal transfers 13. - 13 .1 8.1 - 13.1 1).6 - 10.6 12.2 - 12.2Public loans 35.5 2.5 33.t 27'.9 3.0 22.9 41.8 4.0 37.8 32.1 6.8 25.3

Total public capitatl 14.6 2.5 46.1 34.0 3.0 31.0 52.14 4.0 48.4 44143 6.8 37.5

Private capital transfers . 7 1.3 -o.6 0.6 0.7 -0.1 2.0 0.9 1.1 n.a. n.a. n.a.Private medium and long te7 in-estment 1L2.5 0.6 31.9 33, .2 12.7 _/ 20.5 33.4 19.3 c/ 14.1 (279) 19.1 8.8Short term private credit 1.6 1.& -0.2 2.L -2.1 24.5 -0.6 -C.8 0.2 n.a . n.a. n.a.

Total prLvate capi al 44.B 13.7 31.1 36.3 11.3 25.0 34.8 19.4 15.4 27.9 19.1 8.8

Total on capital acc:our,t 77.2 56.0 63.8 46.3

Commercial banks 14.6 - L.6 3.1 2.C 1.0 10.6 o.8 9.8 -5.14 1.5 -3.9Central Bank _ .j .2 -7.1 3.0 -4. 14.5 r).6 5.0 -4.4 -2.0 0.2 -1.8International Monetary Fund 6.2 - 6.2 2.7 - 2.7 0.7 - 0.7 -0o.4 - -0.4

Total on monetary ccount d/ 6.9 3.2 3.7 5.7 -2.5 8.2 11.9 5.8 6.1 -7.8 1.7 -6.1

Errors and omissions -0.2 +0.2 +0.4

a/ Net charges in Tunisiar. short term credit abroad are shown as receints; net changes in foreign short term credit to Tunisia are s1lown as payments.b/ Includes D6. ri'lion ir. '.an from E.N.I. i:o Turisia.c/ Includes D;.2 -i'l lion ani ,--.1 millicn as estmnated value of wine indemnizauion payments to Frer.ch farmers for nationalized lands.d/ increases in foreign l-'ab 'ilics are er.terea as receipts; increases in foreign assets are entered as payments.

Source: S.E.r.3.h.

TABLE 61

IALANCE OF PAYMITS, PLA MOJECTIONS(miLLions of d:inars)

1969 1970 1971 1972

ReceLpts PayEsnts Balance Receipts Payments Balance Rteceipts Pits BalancD Receipts P .s BslE e

MerchandLse, ff.o.b. 94,5 137.6 -43.1 98.0 153.0 -55.0 102.5 158.0 -55.5 L11.5 161.0 -49.5Non factor servicesi 50.7 38.3 12.14 54.1 141.7 12.4 58.4 44.0 14.4 633.0 46.9 16.1Total on goods and services 145.2 175.9 -30.7 152.1 194.7 -42.6 160.9 202.0 -4l.1 1714 2cr7l - Lk3Factor services 7.0 30.0 -23.0 7.0 29.6 -22.6 7.0 31.1 -24.1 7.0 32.3 -25.3Current transfers 6.9 o.4 6.5 6.5; 0.3 6.2 6.5 0.3 6.2 6.5 0.3 6.2TotaLl on current accoumt 159.1 206.3 -47.2 165.6 224.6 -59.0 174.4 233.4 -59.0 188.0 2t& Zi-55

Public capital trarisfersi 13.1 - 13.1 lo.6 - 10.6 lo.4 - 10.4 :10.0 - 10.0Public loans 43.2 9.8 33.14 59.5 9.5 50.4 60.5 10.5 50.0 58.5 1.2.41 1.6.1Tot2 L jpulalic capital 56.3 9.8 46. 5 70.5 9.5 61.0 70.9 10.5 60.4 !58 56.1

Private capital. transfers - - - - - - - - - -Private mediLum and long term investnent 24.4 17.7 6.7 27.C) 18.0 9.0 23.3 16.7 6.6 :L9.4 17.0 2.1Short term private credit - - - - - - - - - -Total privaite ca;jital 24.14 17.7 6.7 27. C) 18.0 9.0 23.3 16.7 6.6 :L9.4 jL7.0 2>

Total on capital account 53.:2 70.0 67.0 1.5

Foreign assets* 3.7 -3.7 - 0.8 -0.8 - 1.0 -1.0 - 1.3 -.1.3Foreign :Liabi:Lities -2,3 - -2.3 -10.2d - -10.2 -7.0 - -7.0 -4.7 - -4.7Total on monetary account -6.o -11.0 -8.0 -.6.0Errors anid omiLssiorns - -

Source: S.B.P.E.N.

Table 62

BALANCE OF F rAM S - SIMVICKS AID CUMRET TRANSF,S

(millions of dinars )

Provisional1965 1966 1967 1968

ReceLpts Payments Balanee Recei'pts ysre s Baac e0Pts st Ban:e eei l s eRace ~~ fr~~nt8 Balance Bace:~~ZE t Balance Racal~ Pay-ts Balanc Receipts P-te Balance

I1n-Factor Services 35.8 46.5 -10.7 40.8 40.1 0.7 42.0 S81 3.9 43-7 36,1, AL

T(mris and t,ravel 10.1 6.7 14.6 6.8 17.7 8.1 21.0 7.5Traaupartaticm, insurance 8.9 22.0 8.4 19.5 8.8 21.2 8.5 19.5

(of wbich 'ar go8ds iqports) (11.5) (9.6) (8.8) (9.10)OiL pipeline receipts 5.2 5.1 4.9 4.5Government 9.4 3.0 10.2 4.5 8.2 2.6 7.2 2.6Ot.her 2.2 14.7 2.5 9.3 2.4 6.2 2.5 6.7

Factxr Services 4.5 16.,7 -12.2 5.5 19.7 -14.2 6.6 26.6 -20.0 6.7 28.8 -22.].

inveatment irnc e 0.7 5,,1 0.8 6.7 0.,7 9.0 0.7 10.7(of which intereist payents) (4.,4) (6.1) (8.0) (9-0)

*upa and salaries 3.8 10.2 4.7 12.4 5.9 14.7 6.0 14.6(of which technical assistance) (5.6) (7-0) (8-5) (8-3)

N^blic uorks 1,1 0.6 2.9 3.5

Current Transfers 1.1 0.6 2.5 2.9 0.3 2.o 5.1 0.4 4.7 6.6 0.3 6.3j

frivate tranafers 2.8 2.6 3.4 0.3 4.9 0.0korusant tranater s 0.3 o0.6 0.3 0.3 1.7 0.1 1.7 0.3

SoAr1e. -20.4. -10P..9 -K.. -8.4

Soerce s S .B.P.E .h.

*'abie 6'

BkLANCE OF PAD!SiYTS - 3S;rVI'ES 2N, .'mEYT MFNSFE5S

;.Ou-;R-Y;A FrLZN.:i;.Gv

rmI 'ons o. n,ars;

197 -- 1972

Receipts Paymlen_5 B3alance Receipts Payments Balance Fe:eY;t. Fiyments Baiance Receipts Payments Balance

!on-Factor Ser._ces 3 E. 12. t.1 Li.7 2. ;c._ - 46.9 6

Tourism aLnd travel 27.' B.o 31.0 8.' 3-3. 9.0 39.0 9.5Transportation, insurarice 5.5 20., 8.7 21.3 . 22.5 9.5 24.C

(of whi:h for goods imports) (9.0) (?.O (9.0) (9.-)SJ.1 pipeine receipts . 4.5 4-Government 7.2 2.6 7.2 2.6 7.2 2.6 7.2 2.6Otber 2., 7.2 2.7 9.3 2.7 9.9 2.8 10.8

Factor Serv.ces 7., 3.0 -f3.'3 7.0 29.o -22.t 7., -31.1 -2I.l 7.0 ,-32.3 _!5 -3Investment income 0.7 11.9 0.7 12. ,.7 13.C 0.7 1h.,

(of wh:Lch interest paymetnts) (0.-) (30 (11.5c) (12.5)Wages andi salairies 6.3 i4.6 6.3 13 .0 6.3 12.8 6.3 12.5

(of which technical assistance) (8 .3) (6.7) (6 .5) (6.2)Public works 3.35 L.2 4.8 5.3

Current Tranisfers o.9 0.L o.5 6.5 C 6.2 6.5 0.3 6.2 6.5 °-3 6.2

Private transfers 5.2 0.1 4.8 L.8 b.8Government transfers 1.7 0.3 1.7 0.3 1.7 0.3 1.7 0.3

TOTAL -.1 '40 -°3.5 ; X

Source: 5.E.P.E.Ii.

Table 64

MEDIUM AND LONG TERM CAPITAL INFLOWS ly65-1972

(mill ions of dinars)

Provi- , Plan Pro ec ttonssionalY/

1965 1966 1967 1968 1 W170 1971 1W72'

Public capital transfers 13.1 8.1 10.6 12.2 13.1 10.6 IC. II IC%V

To Central Government 2.9 0.9 0.4 0.4 2.1 1.1 1.1 1.1To Other Government 10.2 7.2 10.2 11.8 11.0 9.5 y.3 8.,

Public loans 3L45 25.9 41.6 32.1 3.q , .

For Government projects 5.5 7.8 7.7 10.0 11.3 1b.14 II.' lf.3For enterprise projects 10.8 9.1 e.0 9.4 ]5 . 26.3 3n1.0 l_Non-proiect loans 13.5' Lb 15.8 q.? F IPL 1,80 Title I

Repayable in dinars 5.7 L4.6 6.h4 L.2 :'.7 l.t. _Repayable in dollars - - 3.9 3.3 i.d '.0 7

Private capital 42.5 33.2 33.4 27.9 2L.1L :7.0 !.i

Medium-term credit 26.3 17.3 23.8 20.7 14.! 17.8 I i.: 1Supp"ies cred,t (18.9) (10.2) ( 7.7)' (10.2) (12.1) (lS.) (1.'.')jl..Other iiFort credit ( _ ) c 3.9) (11.3) ".6) ( 2.3) ( 2.3) ( A;Financial credit (6.9)' (3.2) (14.8) ( 7.9) ( ) ( ) (_)

Petroleum research / 13.4 13.1 7.5 5.. .6.b 6. K c- 'Direct i-nvestment 34.1 2.8 2.1 ]. 5 '1i I;

TOTAL 91.1 67.2 85.6 72.? 6(.? ?.A >Li

a/ 1968, allocation has been adjusted by IBHD for consistency with provisional total inflows.b/ Petroleum research includes contingent financial liabilitv from natroleuim eLpLoratirn plus

company exploration outlays.J Includes D6.3 million in loan from E.N.I. to Tunisia.' includes 07.9 million in advance on long term bond issue on European markets.

Source: S.E.P.E.N.

FOREIGN ORANTS IN AID, 1965-1972(millions of dinars)

1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972

Current Grants 2.8 2.6 4 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.4 4.4

FoodstuffsI'L 480 Title II(United States) 1.3 0.7 1.3 2.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2LCSD (0.4) - (0.5) (0-4) (0.8) (0-7) (0.7) (0.7)Child feeding (0.7) (0.3) (0.6) (1.3) (0.5) (o.5) (0.5) (0.5)World Food Program a/ (0.2) (0-4) (0.2) (0.8) (-) ( - ) ( - ) ( -

Scholarships 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8Philanthropic organizations 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.9 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.4

Capital Grants 13.1 8.1 10.6 12.2 13.1 10.6 10.4 10.0FoodstLf fsFL 480 Title II 3.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 2.4 1.7 1.7 1.7World Food Program - - - - 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.1France - - - 0-5 1.0 - -

EquipmentU.S.A. 0.7 0.3 0.1 - - - - -Other countries and inter-national organizations 1.0 0.2 1.6 1.3 1.0 - - -

Technical assistance 6.7 6.6 8.1 8.2 6.8 6.7 6.5 6.1Goods in kind 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.1

a/ For 1969-1972 contributions of the World.Food Program have been allocated to capital grants.

Source: S.E.P.E?.N

TABL3 66

DISBSUR5(2STS ON PUBLIC UANS(milliona of dinars)

D,rov = VI1.- .1.D 4 ec tion,

sional1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972

Earope 8.4 4.3 12.2 6.6 12.8 22.1 19.1 17.8France 3.4 O 0.9Y 76 35 5.5 5.o 4.1Italy 0.3 * 8.4 - 2.1 4.4 3.3 3.7INe4w.1erl, _ 0.9 0.3 0.4 =, =. = 0VA~ WAI~ LUc%.W - .*J

West Germany 4.1 1.0 1.1 3.0 5.9 8.5 8.1 7.8

Denmark 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 -Spain - -- - - 2.3 0.9 1.1Sweden 0.1 0.6 0.5 - 1.1 O.o o.6 0.5Yugoslavia 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.2 - 0.2 0.2 0.2

North America 20.7 14.8 20.8 16 71 17.7 15.0Canada - - - . . . -. 8 -U.S.A. 20.7 14.8 20.8 16.1 17.6 15.9 15.9 15.0

Eastern countries 1.5 3.0 3.0 1.1 - 1.2 3.3 4.1Bulgaria 0.2 07 - -7 17 2.2V6zIaChosV A. oa.L - - - -

East Germany 0.1 * - o.6Poland * 0.1 * * - - 1.2 1.5Rumania _ - - - - 0.3 0.3 0.4U.S.S.R. 1.1 2.5 2.7 0.5 - - - -

International Organizations 1.4 2. 2.6 4.8 11.7 17.8 17.7 17.4

African Development Bank - - - - 0.4 0.5 0.5

Others 3.8 1.2 3.1 3.0 0.4 1.1 2.8 4.1Kuwait 2.3 1.2 3.1 3.0 0.4 - 0.2 0.8Libya 1.5 - - - - - - -

Undentified - - - - - 1.1. 2.6 3.3

Total 3 25.9 41.8 32.1 43.2 59.9 60.5 58.5

* Less than D 50,000

Source: S.E.P.E.N.

Table 67

.1MRVTrE. RAYThWW LS CIa WWR1 T DE BlT

(millions of dinars)

Provi- Plan Projectionssional

1966 1967 1966 1969 1970 1971 1972

Service Payments on Loans to the Government 4.0 5.1 12.0 U1.5 13.0 15.9 15.0 17.5

Interest Payments 1.4 1.7 3.0 3.0 3.8 1.3 4.3 4.5On debt of peblic origin ( 1 2) ( 1.5) e 2.1) I 2.1) ( 2.6) ( 3.0) ( 3.1 ( 3.2)On debt of private origin ( 0.2) ( 0.2) C 0.9) (0.9) ( 1.2) ( 1.3) C 1.3) ( 1.3)

iAm-ort.ization P'aymlents 2.g 3.4 9.0 80.5 1. i.j iO.7 i3.0On debt of public origin ( 1.5) ( 1.8) C 2.4) ( 4.4) ( 7.0) ( 6.4) t 7.3) ( 9.1)On debt of private origin ( 1.1) ( 1.6) 6.6) C 1) ( 2.2) ( 5-1) ( 3.4) ( 3.9)

3ervice Payments on Loans to Enterpriseo 13.5 15.5 18.2 23.4 24.5 22.2 23.6 24.4

Interest Payments 3.0 4.4 5.0 6.o 6.2 6.2 7.1 8.0On debt of public origin ( 0.6) C 1.3) ( 1.4) C 2-1) ( 2.3) ( 2 .4) ( 2.6) ( 2.8)On debt of private origin (2 L) (3.1) (3.6) ( 3.9) (13.9) 01 !L8) (

Amortization Payments 10.5 11.1 13.2 17.4 18.3 16.0 16.5 16.4(nl debt of public origin( 1.0) ( i 1.6) ( 2.u) 2.8) ( 3.1) t3-2) C 3-3)on debt of private origin ( 9-5) ( 9-9) (11.6) (15.0) (15.5) (12.9) (13.3) (13.1)

Innemnization of farmers 1.2 1.1

TO'TVL DEBT SERVICE PAYMENT5 17.5 21.8 31.3 34.9 37.5 38.1 38.6 41.9

On debt of piblic origin 4.3 5.8 7.5 11.0 14.7 14.9 17.4 19.7On debt of private ortgin 13.2 16.n '3.8 23.9 22.8 2V2 21.2 22 2

Sourrer S.E. P.E.N.

Table 68

FOREIMN ASSETS AND LIABILITIES AT END OF THE YEAR

(.lirof din--s',

1965 1966 196 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972

Central Bank

Foreign assets 20.8 16.3 21.3 21.5

Gold 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.2Convertible foreign exchange 14.5 10.9 18.0 16.8Payment agreements 1.8 1.7 0.3 2.5Crossed loans 2.5 1.7 0.8 -

Foreign liabilities 18.0 20.7 22.0 19.6

IMF net position 7.4 10.1 10.8 9.2Payment agreements 2.5 2.1 1. 1

Bank of France 4.6 2.9 4.6 3.6Short term currency deposits o.6 3.0 2.0 1.8Crossed loans 2.5 1.7 0.8 -

Other short term 0.4 0.9 0.7 3.9

Net assets 2.8 - 4.4 - 0.7 1.9

Commercial Banks

Foreign assets 2.3 4.3 5.1 3.2

Foreign exchange 0.4 o.6 0.7Other short tem..... 1.9 3.7

Foreign liabilities 11.8 1.8 25.4 20.0

Private accounts 5.4 7.8 9.2 11.4

Foreign banks 6.4 7.0 16.2 8.6

Net assets 2 j- -10.5 -20.3 -16.8

TOTXL NET ASSETS - 6.7 -14.9 -21.0 -114.9 - 9.7 1.3 J 1.J

of which total foreign assets 23.1 20.6 26.4 21.7 3. 33.( 31.l a c.

of which total foreign liabilities 29.8 35.5 47.4 39.6 1I1.1) 31.7 Ii.7 0o

Source : S.E.P.E.N.

O RO G A I Z A T I O I A L S I a 5 ' r 5 R I 7 T O I SI AI C O O P I R A IV I , I/

EATuILLL tnnn op oPwano

UnDIU&L COOMltCM Cy,

. ACtLL o1orsnD O _

101 AWMELTlL =DTOR AOIcULBAL SECIlU A T I O A k L _ _,__- t _ __ __

CUYILL tUIS OF COFPRE '-S -C r CfL UNMES oF 7DoPsTI

LtlD IL 1b-S -ICDID TuDwsILn rI1LIDt tDbS - t0 ]9REmlr SO t _t SS=La

BED WU9U~Ioxxom

R I O IO R A L

KM AUlOtL2UIL MEMIR SF CIALIZ WOPFII¶WVI AOIXLTURAL RUIDAL SPCIALIMs OPOFIRLTrsL IV I L

(13 ao-==ta;

o Snab _ _r mErt)

LOCAL, t,11 Iu -- -- -4 1- FLOCAL , t I \ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~I I WLLCC

L 1, V I, L ' a o rT S|

(om 100 d.l.gatim. or : Ir"I 1mte of drlwe.It,.uCh itjC oe Lcol bOnon ofC CoOprg,tU,s by th. mt f _ , _ _ _ _ _ Iof _ -- _ Februroy 1959.) / j

a 1. S & O v I T 3 | nn tLrPR t

(I.. giitura Irn II II tHII AND F CPEUA7IV UNITS oru tbo 1,000 production

Co tto. or proooop.rsti") y TT 1 141 (up to 20 oit. per lo)ca l

1/ ds strut- is to bh fully lxplaSted by tOh sod of 1969.

2/ For wLo. thb . is u ro.gi-.1 9 1o1oalid Uniou of Coopratto and the C;otr alO.io d.0- Jdir otlY .it.h o.IDC- 1 Q d YprootiCo luits.

~/ Thn sr. to -tral coptooprt.-. for dirsot dteltrl oti- of cool. sud b..dling. to loo.c. Uoiooa of Coop:.rti' a. ..o1 . to prodotuti-o cooporstio.