World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates · Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee...

Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board, Chair

Economic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural Service

Farm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

Report of November 9, 2017

November 9, 2017

WASDE: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

Secretary's WASDE Briefing Slides

Foreign Ag Service: World Agricultural Production

Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin

Links to the latest WASDE related publicationsOffice of the Chief Economist

World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)

US Drought Monitor ( in cooperation with NOAA and NDMC)

http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdfhttp://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdfhttp://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/Secretary_Briefing.pdfhttp://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/Secretary_Briefing.pdfhttps://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/production.pdfhttps://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/production.pdfhttp://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Weekly/Wwcb/wwcb.pdfhttp://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Weekly/Wwcb/wwcb.pdfhttps://www.usda.gov/oce/http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/jpg/current/current_usdm.jpghttp://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/jpg/current/current_usdm.jpg

World Wheat Production

November 9, 2017

Country or Region2016/17 estimate

2017/18 forecast

Change from

October 12Change from

2016/17

World 753.9 752.0 0.8 -1.9United States 62.8 47.4 -- -15.5

Foreign 691.1 704.6 0.8 13.5Argentina 18.4 17.5 -- -0.9Canada 31.7 27.0 -- -4.7Australia 33.5 21.5 -- -12.0European Union 145.5 151.5 0.5 6.0Turkey 17.3 21.0 -- 3.8Russia 72.5 83.0 1.0 10.5Ukraine 26.8 26.5 -- -0.3Kazakhstan 15.0 14.0 -- -1.0China 128.9 130.0 -- 1.2India 87.0 98.4 -- 11.4

Million Tons

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Wheat crop calendar for most of ArgentinaPLANT

HARVEST

HEAD

HARVEST> 4.0

Wheat Yields (mT/ha)*Average (2006/07-10/11)

< 1.5

*Source: SAGPyA

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

Argentina Wheat

Source: SAGPyA

* State-Level Production(as % of total)

Buenos AiresCordobaSanta FeEntre RiosLa PampaSaltaTucumanSantiago del EsteroChacoOther States

581413

822211

< 1

* 2006/07 to 2010/11 Average

BuenosAires

La Pampa

EntreRios

SantaFe

Cordoba

Chaco

Formosa

Santiagodel

Estero

SanLuis

SaltaTucuman

Jujuy

Corrientes

Misiones

Catamarca

La Rioja

1.5 - 3.0

3.0 - 4.0

November 9, 2017

November 9, 2017

World Wheat Supply and Use

November 9, 2017

2016/17 estimate

2017/18 forecast

Change from


2016/17

Beginning stocks 241.4 255.6 -1.0 14.3Production 753.9 752.0 0.8 -1.9Total Supply 995.3 1,007.6 -0.2 12.3

Feed use 147.5 140.8 -0.7 -6.7Total use 739.6 740.1 0.4 0.4

Trade 182.9 180.7 0.6 -2.2Ending Stocks 255.6 267.5 -0.6 11.9

Million Tons

U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand

November 9, 2017

2016/17 estimate

2017/18 forecast

Change from


2016/17

Planted area (million acres) 50.1 46.0 -- -4.1Harvested area (million acres) 43.9 37.6 -- -6.3Yield (bushels per acre) 52.7 46.3 -- -6.3

Million bushelsBeginning stocks 976 1,181 -- 205Production 2,309 1,741 -- -568Imports 118 150 -- 32Total supply 3,402 3,071 -- -331

Food use 949 950 -- 1Seed 61 66 -- 5Feed and residual 156 120 -- -36Domestic use 1,167 1,136 -- -31

Exports 1,055 1,000 25 -55Total use 2,222 2,136 25 -86

Ending stocks 1,181 935 -25 -245

Stocks to use ratio 53.1 43.8 -1.7 -9.4

Average market price 3.89 4.40/4.80 -- 0.71-- No change

Dollars per bushel

Percent

World Rice Production

November 9, 2017

Country or Region

2016/17 estimate

2017/18 forecast

Change from


2016/17

World 486.6 481.2 -2.60 -5.4United States 7.1 5.7 -0.01 -1.5

Foreign 479.4 475.5 -2.60 -3.9Argentina 0.9 0.8 -0.05 -0.0Brazil 8.4 7.8 -- -0.6Egypt 4.8 4.3 -- -0.5Bangladesh 34.6 33.0 -- -1.6Burma 12.5 12.6 -- 0.1Cambodia 4.9 5.0 -- 0.1China 144.9 144.0 -- -0.9India 110.2 107.5 -2.50 -2.6Indonesia 37.2 37.0 -- -0.1Japan 7.8 7.6 -- -0.2Sri Lanka 2.0 2.9 -- 0.9Pakistan 6.9 6.9 -- 0.0Philippines 11.7 11.2 -- -0.5Thailand 19.2 20.4 -- 1.2Vietnam 27.6 28.5 -- 0.9

-- No change

Million Tons

November 9, 2017

Neg. yield deviations mainly in the extremes (~ -1 std or less).November 9, 2017

India: Rice Area Harvested

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f

Area

Har

vest

ed m

Ha

Source: PS&D OnlineNovember 9, 2017

India: Rice Production (milled)

9799

89

96

105 105 107 105 104

110108

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f

Area

Har

vest

ed m

Ha

Source: PS&D Online November 9, 2017

World Rice Supply and Use2016/17 estimate

2017/18 forecast

Change from


2016/17

Beginning stocks 132.6 138.1 -0.10 5.5Production 486.6 481.2 -2.60 -5.4Total Supply 619.2 619.3 -2.70 0.1Total use 481.1 480.4 -0.12 -0.7

Trade 45.3 44.9 0.72 -0.4Ending Stocks 138.1 138.9 -2.58 0.8

Million Tons, milled

November 9, 2017

U.S. Rice Supply and DemandRough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice

November 9, 2017

2016/17 estimate

2017/18 forecast

Change from


2016/17

Planted area (million acres) 3.15 2.49 -- -0.66Harvested area (million acres) 3.10 2.39 -- -0.71Yield (pounds per acre) 7,237 7,461 -8 224

Million cwtBeginning stocks 46.5 46.0 -- -0.4Production 224.1 178.4 -0.2 -45.8Imports 23.5 24.5 0.3 1.0Total supply 294.1 248.9 0.1 -45.1

Domestic use 131.4 115.0 -- -16.4Exports 116.7 104.0 -2.0 -12.7Total use 248.0 219.0 -2.0 -29.0

Ending stocks 46.0 29.9 2.1 -16.1

Stocks to use ratio 18.6 13.7 1.1 -4.9

Average market price 10.40 12.50/13.50 -0.20 2.60-- No change

Percent

Dollars per cwt

World Corn Production

November 9, 2017

Country or Region

2016/17 estimate

2017/18 forecast

Change from


2016/17

World 1,074.8 1,043.9 5.10 -30.9United States 384.8 370.3 7.55 -14.5

Foreign 690.0 673.6 -2.45 -16.4Argentina 41.0 42.0 -- 1.0Brazil 98.5 95.0 -- -3.5Mexico 27.6 26.2 -- -1.4Canada 13.2 14.1 -- 0.9European Union 61.1 59.6 0.20 -1.5Serbia 7.6 4.0 -- -3.6FSU-12 47.3 44.2 -2.30 -3.0Ukraine 28.0 25.0 -2.00 -3.0Russia 15.3 15.0 -0.30 -0.3

South Africa 17.5 12.5 -- -5.0China 219.6 215.0 -- -4.6India 26.3 25.0 -- -1.3

-- No change

Million Tons

GIS Crop data courtesy of SAGE/Univ Wisc. November 9, 2017

UkraineRussia

Southern

N. Caucasus

VolgaCentral

November 9, 2017

Important note: The preliminary data (top) from GPCC available shortly after months end showed more rain

than the final QCed product (bottom), which is available on a two-month delay; early WMO data

would have supported inflated yields.

*Preliminary August Rainfall (PNP)

*Final August Rainfall (PNP)

* Data courtesy of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre in Germany.


Widespread yield-reducing heat (>35C) was reported during August in many key corn areas.

Corn

>35C (95F)

>35C (95F)

>40C (104F)


A month later, as corn was Filling, the impacts of the heat and dryness are readily apparent.

Corn

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Yiel

d (T

/Ha)

Area

(MHa

) and

Pro

duct

ion

(MM

T)Russia Corn: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production

Harvested area Production Yield

Estimated production is reduced from 15.3 to 15.0 mmt based on MinAg harvest reports. Estimated yield is down 3% from last month and down 11% from last year.

Source: USDA PSD Online November 9, 2017

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Area

(MHa

) and

Yie

ld (T

/Ha)

Area

(MHa

) and

Pro

duct

ion

(MM

T)Ukraine Corn: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production

Harvested area Output Yield

Estimated production is reduced from 27.0 to 25.0 mmt based on MAPF harvest reports. Estimated yield is

down 4% from last month and down 16% from last year.

Source: USDA PSD Online November 9, 2017

November 9, 2017

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisInternational Production Assessment Division

Spring/Summer (Planting Harvest) 1st Crop ~50% production

Fall/Winter (Planting Harvest)

November 9, 2017

*2017 data based on Sep. 30 (SIAP) report

(Final)

-13%

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s (k

ha)

November 9, 2017

World Corn Supply and Use

November 9, 2017

2016/17 estimate

2017/18 forecast

Change from


2016/17

Beginning stocks 214.4 226.6 -0.40 12.2Production 1,074.8 1,043.9 5.10 -30.9Total Supply 1,289.2 1,270.5 4.70 -18.7

Feed use 632.6 652.5 2.06 20.0Total use 1,062.6 1,066.6 1.80 4.0

Trade 163.6 151.6 0.91 -12.0Ending Stocks 226.6 203.9 2.90 -22.7

Million Tons

U.S. Corn Supply and Demand

November 9, 2017

2016/17 estimate

2017/18 forecast

Change from


2016/17

Planted area (million acres) 94.0 90.4 -- -3.6Harvested area (million acres) 86.7 83.1 -- -3.6Yield (bushels per acre) 174.6 175.4 3.6 0.8

Million bushelsBeginning stocks 1,737 2,295 -- 558Production 15,148 14,578 297 -571Imports 57 50 -- -7Total supply 16,942 16,922 297 -20

Feed and residual 5,463 5,575 75 112Food, seed, and industrial 6,891 6,935 -- 44Ethanol 5,439 5,475 -- 36Domestic use 12,354 12,510 75 156

Exports 2,293 1,925 75 -368Total use 14,647 14,435 150 -212

Ending stocks 2,295 2,487 147 193

Stocks to use ratio 15.7 17.2 0.9 1.6

Average market price 3.36 2.80/3.60 -- -0.16-- No change

Percent

Dollars per bushel

World Soybean Production

November 9, 2017

Country or Region

2016/17 estimate

2017/18 forecast

Change from


2016/17

World 351.3 348.9 1.0 -2.4United States 116.9 120.4 -0.1 3.5

Foreign 234.3 228.5 1.2 -5.9Argentina 57.8 57.0 -- -0.8Brazil 114.1 108.0 1.0 -6.1Paraguay 10.7 9.4 -- -1.3Canada 6.5 8.2 -- 1.7India 11.5 10.0 -- -1.5China 12.9 14.2 -- 1.3

-- No change

Million Tons

Major

Soybean Production*Average (2005-09)

IntensityProductionMinor

*Source: MINAG / IBGE


Soybean ProductionBrazil

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Soybean crop calendar for most of Brazil & ParaguayPlanting

HarvestingFill

FlowerRio Grande

do Sul

SantaCatarina

Mato Grosso

Bahia

Mato Grossodo Sul

Parana

SaoPaulo

MinasGerais

Goias

Tocantins

Maranhao

Piaui

Para

Rondonia

Paraguay

Cr: Subtropical RainAw: Tropical wet and dry

Soy: ~40%

Soy: ~60%

November 9, 2017

Brazil: Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

0123456789

Jul

-01

Jul

-23

Aug

-14

Sep

-05

Sep

-27

Oct

-19

Nov

-10

Dec

-02

Dec

-24

Jan

-15

Feb

-06

Feb

-28

Mar

-22

Apr

-13

May

-05

May

-27

Jun

-18

Parana MTAgricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

Early November

Mato Grosso

Parana

November 9, 2017

Chart4

3.40.5

3.30.5

3.30.5

3.20.5

3.10.6

30.5

30.5

2.90.5

2.80.5

2.80.5

2.70.5

2.70.5

2.60.5

2.50.5

2.50.5

2.40.5

2.40.5

2.40.5

2.30.5

2.30.5

2.30.5

2.30.5

2.30.5

2.20.5

2.20.5

2.20.5

2.20.5

2.20.5

2.20.5

2.20.5

2.30.5

2.30.5

2.30.5

2.30.5

2.30.6

2.30.6

2.40.5

2.40.5

2.40.5

2.40.6

2.50.6

2.50.6

2.50.6

2.50.6

2.60.7

2.60.7

2.70.8

2.70.8

2.70.8

2.80.8

2.80.9

2.80.9

2.90.9

2.91

2.91

31.1

31.1

31.2

3.11.2

3.11.3

3.21.3

3.21.3

3.31.4

3.31.4

3.41.5

3.41.6

3.51.6

3.61.7

3.71.7

3.71.8

3.81.8

3.91.9

3.92

42

4.12.1

4.22.2

4.32.2

4.42.2

4.52.3

4.62.4

4.72.4

4.82.5

4.82.6

4.92.6

52.7

5.12.8

5.22.8

5.32.9

5.32.9

5.43

5.53.1

5.63.1

5.63.2

5.73.3

5.73.3

5.83.4

5.83.5

5.83.6

5.93.6

5.93.7

5.93.8

5.93.8

5.93.9

5.94

5.94.1

5.94.1

5.84.2

5.84.3

5.84.4

5.74.5

5.74.5

5.64.6

5.64.7

5.54.8

5.54.8

5.44.9

5.35

5.25.1

5.25.2

5.15.2

55.3

4.95.4

4.95.5

4.85.5

4.75.6

4.75.7

4.65.8

4.65.9

4.55.9

4.56

4.46.1

4.46.1

4.46.2

4.46.2

4.36.3

4.36.4

4.36.4

4.36.5

4.36.5

4.46.6

4.46.6

4.46.6

4.56.7

4.56.8

4.66.8

4.66.8

4.76.8

4.86.9

4.86.9

4.96.9

56.9

5.17

5.27

5.27

5.37

5.47

5.57

5.67

5.67

5.77.1

5.77.1

5.87

5.97

67.1

67.1

67

6.17.1

6.17.1

6.17.1

6.27.1

6.27.1

6.27.1

6.27.1

6.27.1

6.27.1

6.17.1

6.17.1

6.17.2

6.17.2

67.2

67.2

67.2

67.2

5.97.3

5.97.2

5.87.3

5.87.3

5.87.3

5.77.4

5.77.4

5.67.4

5.67.5

5.67.5

5.57.5

5.57.5

5.57.6

5.57.6

5.47.6

5.47.6

5.47.7

5.47.7

5.47.7

5.47.8

5.47.8

5.57.8

5.57.9

5.57.9

5.57.9

5.58

5.58

5.68

5.68

5.78.1

5.78.1

5.78.2

5.88.2

5.88.2

5.98.2

5.98.2

5.98.2

68.3

68.3

68.3

68.3

6.18.3

68.3

68.3

68.3

68.3

68.3

68.3

68.3

5.98.2

5.98.2

5.88.2

5.88.2

5.78.2

5.68.2

5.58.1

5.58.1

5.48

5.38

5.27.9

5.17.9

57.8

4.97.8

4.97.7

4.87.7

4.77.6

4.67.6

4.57.5

4.57.5

4.47.4

4.37.3

4.27.3

4.27.2

4.17.1

4.17

47

46.8

46.8

3.96.7

3.96.6

3.96.5

3.96.4

3.86.3

3.96.2

3.96.1

3.96.1

3.96

3.95.8

3.95.8

45.7

45.6

45.5

45.4

4.15.3

4.15.2

4.25.1

4.25

4.24.9

4.34.8

4.34.7

4.44.6

4.44.5

4.44.4

4.54.3

4.54.2

4.64.1

4.64

4.63.9

4.63.8

4.63.7

4.73.6

4.73.5

4.73.5

4.73.4

4.73.3

4.73.2

4.73.1

4.73.1

4.73

4.72.9

4.72.8

4.62.7

4.62.7

4.62.6

4.62.5

4.62.4

4.52.4

4.52.3

4.52.2

4.52.2

4.52.1

4.42

4.42

4.41.9

4.41.9

4.41.8

4.41.7

4.41.7

4.31.6

4.41.5

4.41.5

4.41.4

4.41.4

4.41.4

4.41.3

4.41.2

4.41.2

4.41.1

4.41.1

4.41.1

4.41.1

4.41

4.41

4.50.9

4.40.9

4.40.9

4.50.8

4.50.8

4.50.8

4.50.7

4.50.7

4.40.7

4.40.7

4.40.7

4.40.7

4.40.7

4.40.6

4.30.6

4.30.6

4.20.6

4.20.6

4.10.6

4.10.6

40.6

40.5

3.90.5

3.80.6

3.80.6

3.70.6

3.60.5

3.60.5

3.50.6

Parana

MT


Rainfall normals

CumulativeDaily

ParanaMTRGDSParanaMT

Jul-012.76407.0883.40.5

Jul-025.128012.2323.30.5

Jul-038.60.95218.5323.30.5

Jul-0411.1962.11621.5123.20.5

Jul-0512.9082.1425.2043.10.6

Jul-0615.3082.4631.97230.5

Jul-0719.7362.4638.67430.5

Jul-0823.8522.46444.482.90.5

Jul-0929.2523.41250.542.80.5

Jul-1032.9683.74855.0882.80.5

Jul-1135.23.8460.2722.70.5

Jul-1237.3163.9261.7242.70.5

Jul-1338.5763.93262.3282.60.5

Jul-1438.6843.9663.5662.50.5

Jul-1539.6763.97666.2482.50.5

Jul-1644.8643.97672.0162.40.5

Jul-1748.473.97676.0142.40.5

Jul-1852.654.12880.9462.40.5

Jul-1956.2224.22886.8742.30.5

Jul-2058.7544.5692.0742.30.5

Jul-2162.0984.61695.1122.30.5

Jul-2263.4824.798.5082.30.5

Jul-2366.3226.736101.022.30.5

Jul-2466.8266.868102.1162.20.5

Jul-2568.1947.008104.6682.20.5

Jul-2669.9747.432109.112.20.5

Jul-2772.8347.488113.9622.20.5

Jul-2875.0747.568118.2942.20.5

Jul-2976.5627.608124.1782.20.5

Jul-3078.2027.628129.2382.20.5

Jul-3180.6548.448135.0822.30.5

Aug-0184.1389.236140.5822.30.5

Aug-0286.9389.384144.8062.30.5

Aug-0388.6869.452150.0982.30.5

Aug-0490.3589.96155.7742.30.6

Aug-0592.79411.416158.9342.30.6

Aug-0695.7512.692162.4782.40.5

Aug-0798.42212.7167.0142.40.5

Aug-08100.08612.704170.0662.40.5

Aug-09102.97812.704177.2742.40.6

Aug-10105.06613.04180.9922.50.6

Aug-11106.53813.12183.662.50.6

Aug-12108.09813.508185.0762.50.6

Aug-13108.98613.644186.3642.50.6

Aug-14111.48213.908189.842.60.7

Aug-15113.7715.204195.1762.60.7

Aug-16117.67415.92201.2362.70.8

Aug-17119.8515.96204.162.70.8

Aug-18123.49816.052208.8362.70.8

Aug-19128.4116.14211.5482.80.8

Aug-20131.8316.564216.982.80.9

Aug-21135.82617.052221.7482.80.9

Aug-22138.23417.196223.1682.90.9

Aug-23139.43818.948225.2162.91

Aug-24140.6119.588228.6082.91

Aug-25143.08221.084231.28831.1

Aug-26144.45422.012235.17231.1

Aug-27149.27822.012238.86431.2

Aug-28151.7922.856240.763.11.2

Aug-29153.77424.556243.7123.11.3

Aug-30154.74625.356246.2283.21.3

Aug-31158.76626.432251.1123.21.3

Sep-01161.39828.168255.1963.31.4

Sep-02165.3130.132257.9963.31.4

Sep-03167.07830.308259.7363.41.5

Sep-04170.0330.388263.5923.41.6

Sep-05173.54630.768266.663.51.6

Sep-06175.39831.48268.6843.61.7

Sep-07181.81432.682723.71.7

Sep-08187.61436.846277.4943.71.8

Sep-09191.40638.834281.1823.81.8

Sep-10192.50240.09284.1743.91.9

Sep-11193.48641.462292.2543.92

Sep-12199.14642.282302.17442

Sep-13205.05844.022308.4244.12.1

Sep-14211.13445.642316.664.22.2

Sep-15218.04246.95325.5284.32.2

Sep-16221.95449.078330.0324.42.2

Sep-17224.01849.926332.2484.52.3

Sep-18228.08650.494340.2164.62.4

Sep-19232.19453.954348.784.72.4

Sep-20238.9154.818355.5184.82.5

Sep-21240.91456.926361.3764.82.6

Sep-22244.25458.866365.8484.92.6

Sep-23248.92660.538375.6452.7

Sep-24256.39863.07389.7765.12.8

Sep-25264.2565.454395.3085.22.8

Sep-26268.94669.902400.045.32.9

Sep-27272.3770.662403.85.32.9

Sep-28277.44272.082407.8845.43

Sep-29284.52276.594413.1285.53.1

Sep-30290.04281.582418.6365.63.1

Oct-01299.10684.374427.3645.63.2

Oct-02305.18687.73431.9525.73.3

Oct-03308.18689.546436.9565.73.3

Oct-04311.9194.862442.2325.83.4

Oct-05315.98296.65452.0525.83.5

Oct-06322.018100.354459.35.83.6

Oct-07324.45103.338461.6745.93.6

Oct-08330.414106.33469.595.93.7

Oct-09336.41108.39478.8965.93.8

Oct-10342.482112.878486.45.93.8

Oct-11349.454115.038491.785.93.9

Oct-12355.71118.93498.3765.94

Oct-13362.234123.062507.925.94.1

Oct-14367.638126.802513.4845.94.1

Oct-15369.866129.274519.5245.84.2

Oct-16375.386133.39528.2365.84.3

Oct-17383.966137.61539.5125.84.4

Oct-18388.114141.006543.985.74.5

Oct-19394.91146.666547.5485.74.5

Oct-20401.666150.358554.6245.64.6

Oct-21406.878153.806560.3165.64.7

Oct-22411.594157.198563.2565.54.8

Oct-23414.694163.434566.6245.54.8

Oct-24418.11168.974571.8085.44.9

Oct-25424.658173.138577.8045.35

Oct-26433.038178.442585.3085.25.1

Oct-27442.146187.07589.15.25.2

Oct-28444.998192.174592.1845.15.2

Oct-29447.778195.098595.6255.3

Oct-30449.114202.238599.9224.95.4

Oct-31453.102207.962606.1024.95.5

Nov-01460.738212.35611.4144.85.5

Nov-02465.35217.874616.1944.75.6

Nov-03471.222224.532620.4084.75.7

Nov-04477.21229.184626.3284.65.8

Nov-05481.826236.736633.764.65.9

Nov-06490.546240.048643.0564.55.9

Nov-07493.758244.132645.7244.56

Nov-08497.23248.816650.1844.46.1

Nov-09500.526255.364654.4124.46.1

Nov-10505.182265.46659.764.46.2

Nov-11509.178271.336664.3484.46.2

Nov-12513.334276.676668.964.36.3

Nov-13519.854282.156675.1244.36.4

Nov-14525.21288.43678.2844.36.4

Nov-15530.69292.758680.6524.36.5

Nov-16533.158304.166684.3644.36.5

Nov-17537.386309.69688.644.46.6

Nov-18540.63316.15693.6124.46.6

Nov-19544.51320.838697.7564.46.6

Nov-20548.162331.762699.2884.56.7

Nov-21552.446337.868702.0324.56.8

Nov-22556.582343.624703.2164.66.8

Nov-23558.166350.38706.0564.66.8

Nov-24561.802353.587104.76.8

Nov-25568.802360.124716.7524.86.9

Nov-26574.546364.332720.6724.86.9

Nov-27578.93369.52724.8244.96.9

Nov-28582.814377.852729.17256.9

Nov-29585.61388.264730.4165.17

Nov-30588.422396.364732.4125.27

Dec-01591.438407.728735.7045.27

Dec-02594.274414.648738.1925.37

Dec-03597.002422.32740.3125.47

Dec-04601.042427.388743.1565.57

Dec-05605.394432.46750.4325.67

Dec-06610.078438.292758.395.67

Dec-07617.094447.072763.4265.77.1

Dec-08621.458453.66766.2485.77.1

Dec-09623.962460.588768.45.87

Dec-10630.95469.21771.5945.97

Dec-11635.566481.482775.87867.1

Dec-12642.502488.85782.7567.1

Dec-13649.742499.602787.8567

Dec-14658.15509.698791.8626.17.1

Dec-15662.126515.178797.5866.17.1

Dec-16667.966522.814802.156.17.1

Dec-17673.974529.578810.0146.27.1

Dec-18676.898537.354813.916.27.1

Dec-19680.222544.574815.1746.27.1

Dec-20684.598550.39822.256.27.1

Dec-21689.722556.622828.036.27.1

Dec-22697.602560.194832.8866.27.1

Dec-23701.29567.118838.4266.17.1

Dec-24706.69573.266846.1366.17.1

Dec-25708.366580.538486.17.2

Dec-26710.446588.766852.8766.17.2

Dec-27713.818595.826855.60467.2

Dec-28718.79603.75860.75667.2

Dec-29727.414610.454864.65267.2

Dec-30733.598617.218871.62867.2

Dec-31739.248626.332875.9345.97.3

Jan-01743.224635.558879.955.97.2

Jan-02745.184645.69882.5425.87.3

Jan-03749.496653.898885.6785.87.3

Jan-04753.786664.308888.835.87.3

Jan-05758.918673.588893.2225.77.4

Jan-06762.998685.356896.9825.77.4

Jan-07766.544691.6901.3565.67.4

Jan-08768.952700.506907.9565.67.5

Jan-09774.38710.522913.6845.67.5

Jan-10781.904718.902919.0525.57.5

Jan-11788.208726.078925.4925.57.5

Jan-12794.56735.638929.7445.57.6

Jan-13800.452744.47932.485.57.6

Jan-14804.716753.262939.0445.47.6

Jan-15810.692764.854947.3685.47.6

Jan-16815.796773.346955.775.47.7

Jan-17820.62781.266962.955.47.7

Jan-18824.56788.226966.7785.47.7

Jan-19829.312793.81969.0445.47.8

Jan-20836.52800.718976.8525.47.8

Jan-21840.784809.782980.4625.57.8

Jan-22846.86815.818984.1585.57.9

Jan-23852.196824.174988.4665.57.9

Jan-24857.26831.706991.995.57.9

Jan-25866.372838.471001.425.58

Jan-26872.064846.9341007.615.58

Jan-27878.372854.331015.415.68

Jan-28883.588859.971018.465.68

Jan-29889.244867.3981026.535.78.1

Jan-30896.468876.5341035.665.78.1

Jan-31904.84883.6461044.35.78.2

Feb-01915.208891.5141052.945.88.2

Feb-02921.476900.371061.035.88.2

Feb-03927.964909.6461064.425.98.2

Feb-04932.86918.0261070.325.98.2

Feb-05937.408928.9461077.635.98.2

Feb-06942.01937.4121082.5468.3

Feb-07947.086952.8841085.5268.3

Feb-08952.246962.281090.9868.3

Feb-09955.886968.9041095.5868.3

Feb-10961.33975.41104.696.18.3

Feb-11966.97981.9961109.9168.3

Feb-12969.426992.5921112.4268.3

Feb-13974.17999.6521115.6768.3

Feb-14980.5061007.681120.6268.3

Feb-15985.9541015.551127.2568.3

Feb-16992.671024.22113468.3

Feb-17997.2581033.531139.9468.3

Feb-181003.411040.261143.025.98.2

Feb-191008.261048.531144.85.98.2

Feb-201013.51057.571151.955.88.2

Feb-211019.971067.451156.195.88.2

Feb-221026.261074.181159.785.78.2

Feb-231030.881081.821164.615.68.2

Feb-241038.271087.921177.265.58.1

Feb-251044.731095.11185.735.58.1

Feb-261048.471100.971191.345.48

Feb-271052.141108.541196.555.38

Feb-281057.541115.841199.945.27.9

Mar-011061.311123.061205.15.17.9

Mar-021064.551129.71208.257.8

Mar-031069.661138.291212.084.97.8

Mar-041072.731147.051215.714.97.7

Mar-051075.511153.851220.144.87.7

Mar-061078.351164.511226.054.77.6

Mar-071082.211171.311231.624.67.6

Mar-081084.491176.251235.254.57.5

Mar-091087.061182.511238.444.57.5

Mar-101091.091188.281244.564.47.4

Mar-111093.851196.451249.564.37.3

Mar-121097.211204.871253.894.27.3

Mar-131101.191211.341259.134.27.2

Mar-141104.321220.351264.734.17.1

Mar-151106.81228.421267.724.17

Mar-161109.091235.431272.5447

Mar-171115.381244.581276.3646.8

Mar-181120.721255.571286.0846.8

Mar-191123.251269.691288.853.96.7

Mar-201129.071276.671291.293.96.6

Mar-211131.711284.441294.33.96.5

Mar-221136.331290.371296.413.96.4

Mar-231139.461296.891301.873.86.3

Mar-241144.941303.711306.873.96.2

Mar-251147.981310.61311.63.96.1

Mar-261151.091315.011317.183.96.1

Mar-2711551321.291321.393.96

Mar-281157.911327.281326.773.95.8

Mar-291161.531333.821332.073.95.8

Mar-301166.081340.381337.8645.7

Mar-311168.791343.881342.6345.6

Apr-011174.481348.11351.7345.5

Apr-021177.311355.481358.6745.4

Apr-031179.431361.581364.024.15.3

Apr-041184.511365.851373.524.15.2

Apr-051187.511368.831379.834.25.1

Apr-061189.311373.521386.694.25

Apr-071196.681376.811393.074.24.9

Apr-081200.951379.251399.194.34.8

Apr-091204.171382.071402.214.34.7

Apr-101209.271384.851407.494.44.6

Apr-111211.331389.831411.354.44.5

Apr-121213.831396.081418.194.44.4

Apr-131220.011403.61425.184.54.3

Apr-141224.841407.461430.044.54.2

Apr-151231.021413.21438.884.64.1

Apr-161235.931416.931445.984.64

Apr-171242.111423.261451.14.63.9

Apr-181249.851426.631458.164.63.8

Apr-191256.991431.231463.554.63.7

Apr-201263.631433.591468.134.73.6

Apr-211266.251436.311471.84.73.5

Apr-221268.481439.991474.224.73.5

Apr-231271.551442.211480.14.73.4

Apr-241277.861443.741488.234.73.3

Apr-251282.261446.711497.134.73.2

Apr-261287.021449.181502.574.73.1

Apr-271289.341451.291507.154.73.1

Apr-281292.21452.791512.354.73

Apr-291297.371454.161519.684.72.9

Apr-301300.731456.451524.814.72.8

May-011303.271457.491527.594.62.7

May-021306.231459.671531.774.62.7

May-031310.461460.911535.324.62.6

May-041315.721462.91540.974.62.5

May-051318.471463.911545.884.62.4

May-061325.381466.431548.084.52.4

May-071328.661468.521554.134.52.3

May-081333.41469.121559.94.52.2

May-091336.731470.451564.144.52.2

May-101340.071470.911567.74.52.1

May-111342.981471.441571.854.42

May-121346.41471.751576.834.42

May-131353.071472.521583.134.41.9

May-141359.851475.491588.034.41.9

May-151363.21476.851591.14.41.8

May-161368.851479.771598.074.41.7

May-171374.281480.681603.514.41.7

May-181380.291481.791609.724.31.6

May-191385.291482.141615.834.41.5

May-201392.121482.271623.194.41.5

May-211401.121484.651630.374.41.4

May-221407.691485.691636.184.41.4

May-231413.411486.871640.894.41.4

May-241417.041488.041643.694.41.3

May-251421.951488.641647.964.41.2

May-261424.651489.111652.784.41.2

May-271428.721490.251661.294.41.1

May-281432.591490.561671.14.41.1

May-291436.761491.131678.914.41.1

May-3014421491.611686.264.41.1

May-311445.451493.931692.584.41

Jun-011447.851494.931694.094.41

Jun-021449.691495.691697.174.50.9

Jun-031452.111495.751704.524.40.9

Jun-041455.321496.471709.864.40.9

Jun-051464.581496.71719.594.50.8

Jun-061470.331497.911727.424.50.8

Jun-071475.351498.961731.694.50.8

Jun-081478.381499.111736.724.50.7

Jun-091481.111499.151742.034.50.7

Jun-101483.021499.751749.034.40.7

Jun-111485.481499.751752.794.40.7

Jun-121487.951499.751757.634.40.7

Jun-131491.691499.751762.794.40.7

Jun-141498.861499.811768.594.40.7

Jun-151501.681501.421770.34.40.6

Jun-161504.621501.861776.234.30.6

Jun-171507.311502.11783.434.30.6

Jun-181514.471502.431788.874.20.6

Jun-191521.091502.471796.684.20.6

Jun-201527.581502.871799.814.10.6

Jun-211531.391503.151803.244.10.6

Jun-221533.211504.211806.5840.6

Jun-231535.361504.281810.9440.5

Jun-241541.221505.431815.963.90.5

Jun-251544.871506.21818.753.80.6

Jun-261547.641506.961822.413.80.6

Jun-271551.71507.021825.883.70.6

Jun-281554.531507.11828.743.60.5

Jun-291557.861508.171831.593.60.5

Jun-301561.21509.011838.533.50.6

Rainfall normals

Parana

MT


Sheet2

Sheet3

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board November 9, 2017

Percent of Normal Rainfall (%)November 1-6, 2017

(%)


Rio Grandedo Sul

SantaCatarina

Mato GrossoBahia

Mato Grossodo Sul

Parana

SaoPaulo

MinasGerais

Goias

Tocantins

Maranhao

Piaui

ParaAmazonas

Rondonia

Roraima

Amapa

Acre

HarvestingJAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JULAUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Soybean crop calendar for most of BrazilPlanting

FillFlower

Rio Grandedo Sul

SantaCatarina

Mato GrossoBahia

Mato Grossodo Sul

Parana

SaoPaulo

MinasGerais

Goias

Tocantins

Maranhao

Piaui

ParaAmazonas

Rondonia

Roraima

Amapa

Acre

Rainfall (mm)November 1-6, 2017

November 9, 2017


2017/18

Average

1.2%

4.5%

16.5%

31.4%

42.3%

67.7%

80.3%

## / ## - Planting Progress (IMEA)

2016/17

0.1% 1.2%6.1% 14.4%

25.8%

44.1%

64.9%

November 9, 2017

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

Brazil Soybean Planting IntentionsPercent Increase from 2016/17 by State

Source: CONABData Management & Modeling by GDA Corp.

7.53.0

2.0

6.5

2.3

3.0

5.02.75

2.0

1.5

4.5

2.0

3.6

0.00.0

1.5

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

Thou

sand

hec

tare

sBrazil Soybean and 1st-Crop Corn

Areas

1st-Crop Corn Soybean Source: CONAB

3% increase total soybean area, 10% decrease total 1st-crop corn area

November 9, 2017

Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division

2.00

2.20

2.40

2.60

2.80

3.00

3.20

3.40

3.60

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Yiel

d (M

T/HA

)

Thou

sand

Hec

tare

s or T

hous

and

Met

ric To

nsBRAZIL Soybeans

Area (th HA) Production (th MT) Yield (MT/HA)

2017/18 Production up on higher areaArea 34.9 mhaYield 3.09 mt/haProduction 108.0 mmt

November 9, 2017

November 9, 2017


Sunflowers


Major Sunflower Areas

By mid- to late-August, however, the VHI showed widespread stress in sunflower areas as the crop

progressed through the Filling Stage.

Sunflowers

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Yiel

d (T

/Ha)

Har

vest

ed a

rea

(MH

a) o

r Out

put (

MM

T)Ukraine Sunflowerseed: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production

Harvested area Production Yield

Source: USDA PSD Online

Estimated production is decreased from 13.5 to 13.0 mmt based on MAPF

harvest reports. The estimated yield is down 15 percent from last year.

November 9, 2017

November 9, 2017

World Soybean Supply and Use

November 9, 2017

2016/17 estimate

2017/18 forecast

Change from


2016/17

Beginning stocks 78.1 96.3 1.4 18.1Production 351.3 348.9 1.0 -2.4Total Supply 429.4 445.2 2.4 15.8

Domestic crush 288.5 302.0 0.7 13.4Total use 330.1 345.0 0.6 14.9

Trade 147.7 152.4 1.5 4.8Ending Stocks 96.3 97.9 1.9 1.6

Addendum:Beginning stocksArgentina plus Brazil 49.9 61.3 0.8 11.4

Imports*China 93.5 97.0 2.0 3.5

*From all Sources

Million Tons

U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand

November 9, 2017

2016/17 estimate

2017/18 forecast

Change from


2016/17

Planted area (million acres) 83.4 90.2 -- 6.8Harvested area (million acres) 82.7 89.5 -- 6.8Yield (bushels per acre) 52.0 49.5 -0.1 -2.5

Million bushelsBeginning stocks 197 301 -- 105Production 4,296 4,425 -5 129Imports 22 25 -- 3Total supply 4,515 4,752 -5 237

Crush 1,899 1,940 -- 41Seed and residual 141 136 -0 -5Domestic use 2,040 2,076 -0 36

Exports 2,174 2,250 -- 76Total use 4,214 4,326 -0 113

Ending stocks 301 425 -5 124Percent

Stocks to use ratio 7.2 9.8 -0.1 2.7

Average market price 9.47 8.45/10.15 0.10 -0.17-- No change

Dollars per bushel

World Cotton Production

November 9, 2017

Country or Region2016/17 estimate

2017/18 forecast

Change from


2016/17

World 106.5 121.5 0.60 15.0United States 17.2 21.4 0.26 4.2

Foreign 89.3 100.1 0.33 10.8Argentina 0.8 1.1 -- 0.3Brazil 7.0 7.8 -- 0.8Turkey 3.2 3.8 -- 0.6Australia 4.1 4.8 -0.20 0.8China 22.8 25.0 0.50 2.3India 27.0 30.0 -- 3.0Pakistan 7.7 9.2 -- 1.5Uzbekistan 3.7 3.7 -- 0.0African Franc Zone 5.0 5.3 -0.01 0.3

-- No change

Million Bales

Pakistan: Cotton Arrivals 17 Percent Higher

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18 to date

2017/18 forecast

Thousand Pakistan bales

Source: Pakistan Cotton Ginners AssociationNovember 9, 2017

World Cotton Supply and Use

November 9, 2017

2016/17 estimate

2017/18 forecast

Change from


2016/17

Beginning stocks 95.9 88.7 -0.90 -7.2Production 106.5 121.5 0.60 15.0Total Supply 202.4 210.1 -0.31 7.7

Consumption 114.2 119.3 1.24 5.0Trade 37.2 38.0 -0.18 0.8Ending Stocks 88.7 90.9 -1.50 2.2

Addendum:China Ending Stocks 48.4 39.7 0.20 -8.8

Million Bales

U.S. Cotton Supply and Demand

November 9, 2017

2016/17 estimate

2017/18 forecast

Change from


2016/17

Planted area (million acres) 10.07 12.62 -- 2.55Harvested area (million acres) 9.51 11.41 -- 1.90Yield (pounds per acre) 867 900 11 33

Million balesBeginning stocks 3.80 2.75 -- -1.05Imports 0.01 0.01 -- 0.00Production 17.17 21.38 0.26 4.21Total supply 20.98 24.14 0.26 3.16

Mill use 3.25 3.35 -- 0.10Exports 14.92 14.50 -- -0.42Total use 18.17 17.85 -- -0.32

Unaccounted 0.06 0.19 -0.04 0.13Ending stocks 2.75 6.10 0.30 3.35

PercentStocks/use 15.1 34.2 1.7 19.0

Average market price 68.00 60.0/66.0 3.0 -5.00-- No change

Cents per pound

U.S. Sugar Supply and Demand

November 9, 2017

2016/17 estimate

2016/17 Change from

October 122017/18 forecast

2017/18 Change from


2016/17

Beginning Stocks 2,054 -- 1,834 102 -220Production 8,967 76 8,836 -27 -131Beets 5,101 79 4,950 -27 -151Cane 3,866 -4 3,886 -- 20

Imports 3,247 6 3,710 -120 464TRQ 1,611 0 1,756 -25 145Re-export 419 6 250 -- -169Mexico 1,204 -2 1,694 -95 490High-tier 12 2 10 -- -2Total Supply 14,268 81 14,380 -45 112

Exports 95 -5 50 -- -45Domestic deliveries 12,286 -69 12,555 -123 269

Total use 12,434 -21 12,605 -123 171Ending stocks 1,834 102 1,775 78 -59

PercentStocks/use ratio 14.8 0.8 14.1 0.8 -0.7-- No change

1,000 short tons, raw value

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

November 9, 2017

2016/17 estimate

2016/17 Change from


2017/18 Change from


2016/17

Beginning stocks 1,037 -- 1,002 -44 -35Production 5,957 -- 6,100 -- 143Imports 118 -7 95 20 -23Total Supply 7,113 -7 7,197 -24 85

Domestic use 4,896 38 4,912 49 16Exports 1,214 -1 1,460 -81 246Total Use 6,110 37 6,373 -32 262

Ending stocks 1,002 -44 825 9 -178-- No change

Thousand MT

U.S. Meat Production and Prices

November 9, 2017

2017forecast

2017 Change from

October 122018

forecast

2018 Change from


2017ProductionBeef 26.40 -0.15 27.62 0.32 1.22Pork 25.74 -0.09 26.93 0.07 1.19Broilers 41.54 0.10 42.28 -- 0.73Turkey 6.00 -0.01 6.03 -0.11 0.03Total meat 100.43 -0.16 103.61 0.28 3.18

PricesSteers 121.80 2.25 117.25 2.00 -4.55Hogs 49.01 -- 45.00 -0.25 -4.01

Broilers 93.8 -- 88.5 -- -5.3Turkey 96.6 -2.3 99.3 -5.0 2.7

-- No change

Billion pounds

Dollars/cwt

Cents/lb

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

1/6/2017 2/6/2017 3/6/2017 4/6/2017 5/6/2017 6/6/2017 7/6/2017 8/6/2017 9/6/2017 10/6/2017 11/6/2017 12/6/2017

Cent

s per

lbWeekly Whole Frozen Hen Turkey Price

No Thanksgiving Bounce in 2017

2012-16 Avg20162017

November 9, 2017

U.S. Meat TradeMillion Pounds

November 9, 2017

2017forecast

2017 Change from

October 122018

forecast

2018 Change from


2017

Beef 2,855 21 2,970 60 115Pork 5,588 -120 5,900 -65 312Broilers 6,713 -101 6,910 -120 197Turkey 618 7 650 -- 32Mature Chickens 133 -6 145 -- 12

Total meat 15,914 -198 16,583 -125 669

Beef 2,966 9 3,030 -- 64-- No change

Exports

Imports

U.S. Milk Supply and Demand

November 9, 2017

2017forecast

2017 Change from

October 122018

forecast

2018 Change from


2017

Production 215.8 -0.4 219.7 -0.7 3.9Fat BasisImports 6.1 -0.2 6.1 0.2 0.1Commercial use 210.9 -0.8 216.7 0.0 5.8Exports 9.1 -0.3 9.4 -0.2 0.2

Skim-solid BasisImports 6.1 -0.2 6.1 -0.1 0.0Commercial use 177.9 -1.1 185.1 0.1 7.2Exports 39.9 -1.0 41.7 -0.4 1.8

Billion pounds

U.S. Dairy Product Prices

November 9, 2017

2017forecast

2017 Change from

October 122018

forecast

2018 Change from


2017

Product pricesCheese 1.64 0.00 1.67 -0.02 0.03Butter 2.34 -0.01 2.35 -0.03 0.01Nonfat dry milk 0.87 -0.01 0.80 -0.05 -0.07Dry whey 0.45 -0.01 0.34 -0.05 -0.10

Class pricesClass III 16.20 -- 15.95 -0.50 -0.25Class IV 15.20 -0.15 14.65 -0.55 -0.55All milk 17.70 -0.10 17.35 -0.55 -0.35

Dollars/pound

Dollars/cwt

U.S. Production Summary

November 9, 2017

2016/17 estimate

2016/17 Change from


2017/18 Change from


2016/17

Crops and ProductsWheat (Million bu) 2,309 -- 1,741 -- -568Rice (Million cwt) 224.1 -- 178.4 -0.2 -45.8Corn (Million bu) 15,148 -- 14,578 297 -571Sorghum (Million bu) 480 -- 356 -9 -125Barley (Million bu) 200 -- 142 -- -58Oats (Million bu) 65 -- 49 -- -15Soybeans (Million bu) 4,296 -- 4,425 -5 129Soybean oil (Million lbs) 22,099 79 22,505 -- 406Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) 44,733 97 46,099 -1 1,366Cotton (Million bales) 17.17 -- 21.38 0.26 4.21Sugar (Thousand s.t., raw value) 8,967 76 8,836 -27 -131

Milk (Billion lbs) 215.8 -0.4 219.7 -0.7 3.9

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 26.40 -0.15 27.62 0.32 1.22Pork 25.74 -0.09 26.93 0.07 1.19Broilers 41.54 0.10 42.28 -- 0.73Turkey 6.00 -0.01 6.03 -0.11 0.03Total Meat 100.43 -0.16 103.61 0.28 3.18

-- No change

Domestic Demand Summary

November 9, 2017

2016/17 estimate

2016/17 Change from


2017/18 Change from


2016/17

Crops and ProductsWheat (Million bu) 1,167 -- 1,136 -- -31Rice (Million cwt) 131.4 -- 115.0 -- -16.4Corn (Million bu) 12,354 -- 12,510 75 156Sorghum (Million bu) 245 0 160 -- -85Barley (Million bu) 201 -- 197 9 -4Oats (Million bu) 158 -- 168 -- 10Soybeans (Million bu) 2,040 -- 2,076 -0 36Soybean oil (Million lbs) 19,837 -13 20,800 -- 963Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) 33,345 45 34,300 100 955Cotton (Million bales) 3.25 -- 3.35 -- 0.10Sugar (Thousand s.t., raw value) 12,286 -69 12,555 -123 269

Milk (Billion lbs, fat basis) 210.9 -0.8 216.7 0.0 5.8

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 26.63 -0.16 27.73 0.20 1.10Pork 21.16 0.00 22.01 0.25 0.85Broilers 34.50 0.16 35.04 0.13 0.54Turkey 5.39 -0.00 5.42 -0.15 0.03Total meat 88.56 -0.00 91.07 0.43 2.51

-- No change

U.S. Export Summary

November 9, 2017

2016/17 estimate

2016/17 Change from


2017/18 Change from


2016/17

Crops and productsWheat (Million bu) 1,055 -- 1,000 25 -55Rice (Million cwt) 116.7 -- 104.0 -2.0 -12.7Corn (Million bu) 2,293 -- 1,925 75 -368Sorghum (Million bu) 241 -- 210 -- -31Barley (Million bu) 4 -- 5 -- 1Soybeans (Million bu) 2,174 -- 2,250 -- 76Soybean oil (Million lbs) 2,556 6 2,100 -- -456Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) 11,601 -49 12,200 -- 599Cotton (Million bales) 14.92 -- 14.50 -- -0.42

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 2,855 21 2,970 60 115Pork 5,588 -120 5,900 -65 312Broilers 6,713 -101 6,910 -120 197Turkey 618 7 650 -- 32Mature Chickens 133 -6 145 -- 12Total meat 15,914 -198 16,583 -125 669

-- No change

Price Summary

November 9, 2017

2016/17 estimate

2016/17 Change from


2017/18 Change from


2016/17

Crops and productsWheat ($/bu) 3.89 -- 4.60 -- 0.71Rice ($/cwt) 10.40 0.10 13.00 -0.20 2.60Corn ($/bu) 3.36 -- 3.20 -- -0.16Soybeans ($/bu) 9.47 -- 9.30 0.10 -0.17Soybean oil (/lb) 32.48 -- 34.50 -- 2.02Soybean meal ($/s.t.) 316.88 -- 315.00 5.00 -1.88Cotton (/lb) 68.00 -- 63.00 3.00 -5.00

LivestockSteers ($/cwt) 121.80 2.25 117.25 2.00 -4.55Hogs ($/cwt) 49.01 -- 45.00 -0.25 -4.01Broilers (/lb) 93.8 -- 88.5 -- -5.3Turkeys (/lb) 96.6 -2.3 99.3 -5.0 2.7

Dairy productsCheese 1.64 0.00 1.67 -0.02 0.03Butter 2.34 -0.01 2.35 -0.03 0.01Nonfat dry milk 0.87 -0.01 0.80 -0.05 -0.07Dry whey 0.45 -0.01 0.34 -0.05 -0.10

Milk classesClass III ($/cwt) 16.20 -- 15.95 -0.50 -0.25Class IV ($/cwt) 15.20 -0.15 14.65 -0.55 -0.55All milk ($/cwt) 17.70 -0.10 17.35 -0.55 -0.35

-- No change

Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board, ChairEconomic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural ServiceFarm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing ServiceSlide Number 2Slide Number 3World Wheat ProductionSlide Number 5Slide Number 6World Wheat Supply and UseU.S. Wheat Supply and DemandWorld Rice ProductionSlide Number 10Slide Number 11India: Rice Area HarvestedIndia: Rice Production (milled)World Rice Supply and UseU.S. Rice Supply and DemandRough Equivalent of Rough and Milled RiceWorld Corn ProductionSlide Number 17Slide Number 18Slide Number 19Slide Number 20Slide Number 21Slide Number 22Slide Number 23Slide Number 24Slide Number 25World Corn Supply and UseU.S. Corn Supply and DemandWorld Soybean ProductionSlide Number 29Slide Number 30Slide Number 31Slide Number 32Slide Number 33Slide Number 34Slide Number 35Slide Number 36Slide Number 37Slide Number 38Slide Number 39Slide Number 40World Soybean Supply and UseU.S. Soybean Supply and DemandWorld Cotton ProductionPakistan: Cotton Arrivals 17 Percent HigherWorld Cotton Supply and UseU.S. Cotton Supply and DemandU.S. Sugar Supply and DemandMexico Sugar Supply and DemandU.S. Meat Production and PricesSlide Number 50U.S. Meat TradeMillion PoundsU.S. Milk Supply and DemandU.S. Dairy Product PricesU.S. Production SummaryDomestic Demand SummaryU.S. Export SummaryPrice Summary

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates · Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee...

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