Crop Yield Forecasting and Agrometeorological Service System
World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications...
-
Upload
myra-johns -
Category
Documents
-
view
213 -
download
0
Transcript of World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications...
![Page 1: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
World Agricultural Outlook Board
Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications
Robert Stefanski and Ray MothaWorld Meteorological OrganizationU.S. Dept. of Agriculture
Minimum Temperatures in Winter Wheat AreasApril 13, 2004
100%
93%
49%18%
8%
OK
KS
NE
CO
TX
XX = Minimum Temperature
XX% = Percent Crop Jointing
= Minor Growing Area
= Major Growing Area
LEGEND
XX%(Source: NOAA)
(Source: NASS)World Agricultural Outlook BoardJoint Agricultural Weather Facility
![Page 2: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
• Several analytical techniques are used to monitor crop weather worldwide
– time series analyses– Historical analog comparisons– static maps– Depiction of ET, soil moisture
• Until recently, many maps were static and depicted just one variable, making it difficult to:
– overlay data sets– visualize and evaluate relationships– easily assess crop weather conditions
• Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have helped overcome these hurdles
0
25
50
75
100
125
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02
5 - WESTERN CORN BELTPercent of Normal Precipitation: May 1 to Dec 31
Introduction
World Agricultural Outlook Board
![Page 3: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
• GIS defined: method for organizing, displaying, and analyzing spatial data and their relationships using computers and compatible technologies
• GIS incorporates quantitative data directly into the system, helping users:– overlay multiple data sets
– create precise maps
– perform spatial analyses
• Numerous organizations use GIS to study, monitor, and model processes
GIS Described
World Agricultural Outlook Board
Simple GIS
Robust GIS
![Page 4: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
World Agricultural Outlook Board
USDA Forest Service
GIS Users
GIS used to map wildfire burn severity and tofocus efforts to minimize flooding and erosion
![Page 5: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
GIS used to map crop areasannually for selected states
![Page 6: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
GIS used to delineate field boundaries,map land use, and calculate acreages
![Page 7: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
GIS used to map various climatic parameters
![Page 8: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
- Generates gridded estimates of climatic parameters
- Moving-window regression of climate vs. elevation for each grid cell- Uses nearby station observations
- Spatial climate knowledge base weights stations in the regression function by their climatological similarity to the target grid cell
PRISM
Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model
![Page 9: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Station WeightingCombined weight of a station is:
W = f {Wd, Wz, Wc, Wf, Wp, Wl, Wt, We}
- Distance- Elevation - Clustering- Topographic Facet
(orientation)
- Coastal Proximity- Vertical Layer (inversion)- Topographic Index (cold air
pooling)- Effective Terrain Height
(orographic profile)
![Page 10: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
http://www.ocs.orst.edu/prism/
![Page 11: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
GIS used to track tropical cyclones
![Page 12: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
GIS used to map flooding associatedwith a landfalling hurricane
![Page 13: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
• Software– ArcView 3.x
– ArcGIS 9.x
• Hardware– 7 Pentium IV desktop computers
• Processing speed 2.4 to 2.8 GHz
• 512 MB RAM
• Windows 2000/XP operating system
– PCs connected via local area network
– Oracle 9i database
WAOB GIS
![Page 14: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
• U.S. National Weather Service – synoptic/cooperative observer data
• WMO data important
• NWS/WMO data archived in DBMS
• Data describing extreme weather– tropical cyclone wind/coordinate data
– mesonetwork temp./precip. data
• USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) crop production, yield, and area data
• NASS weekly crop progress/condition data
Data
![Page 15: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
• WAOB GIS regularly used to create a variety of agricultural weather analyses
• Products grouped into three categories:– Manual, single-parameter
applications
– Automated, single-parameter applications
– Manual, multiple-parameter applications
USDA Agrometeorological GIS Applications
![Page 16: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
• Refer to those WAOB products that map one agricultural or meteorological parameter and are generally labor-intensive to create
• Created by manually converting raw data into GIS-compatible formats and then using a GUI to import and display these data in the GIS
• GUI also used to add text and legends to the crop and weather maps, and thus create the finished products
Manual, Single-Parameter Applications
Russia: Wheat
JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY (JAWF)
Major growing areas
Minor growing areas
LegendPercentages indicate each region's contribution to total national production. Regions not numbered contribute less than 1% to the national total.
22826
28
15
SiberiaRegion
Urals Region
NorthernRegion
VolgaRegion
CentralRegion
SouthernRegion
RussiaUkra ine
Belarus
Kazakhstan
Area depicted in map above
Lakes
FEB MAR
Wheat crop calendar for most of Russia
JAN MAYMAR APR DECAUGJUN JUL SEP OCT NOV
PLANTPLANT
HEADHEAD
HARVEST HARVEST
#
# Major and minor growing areas combined account for99% of total national production
Major growing areas combined account for 75% of totalnational production
Major and minor growing areas and country production percentages based upon averaged oblast-level data from 1996-2000.
#
Source: Sovecon Agrokhleb Bulletin Statistics and Forecasts February 18, 2003 Issue No.4 (41), 2002.
Pink = spring wheat
Blue = winter wheat
![Page 17: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Russia: Wheat
JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY (JAWF)
Major growing areas
Minor growing areas
LegendPercentages indicate each region's contribution to total national production. Regions not numbered contribute less than 1% to the national total.
22826
28
15
SiberiaRegion
Urals Region
NorthernRegion
VolgaRegion
CentralRegion
SouthernRegion
RussiaUkra ine
Belarus
Kazakhstan
Area depicted in map above
Lakes
FEB MAR
Wheat crop calendar for most of Russia
JAN MAYMAR APR DECAUGJUN JUL SEP OCT NOV
PLANTPLANT
HEADHEAD
HARVEST HARVEST
#
# Major and minor growing areas combined account for99% of total national production
Major growing areas combined account for 75% of totalnational production
Major and minor growing areas and country production percentages based upon averaged oblast-level data from 1996-2000.
#
Source: Sovecon Agrokhleb Bulletin Statistics and Forecasts February 18, 2003 Issue No.4 (41), 2002.
Pink = spring wheat
Blue = winter wheat
![Page 18: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Crop Production Data – Internet
U.S. Corn
![Page 19: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Crop Production Data – Excel
U.S. Corn
![Page 20: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Crop Production Data – ArcView
U.S. Corn
![Page 21: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
![Page 22: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Weather Analyses – Text File
Text file, comma-delimited WMO data
Note latitude/longitude data in addition to weather data
![Page 23: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Weather Analyses – GIS Table
![Page 24: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Weather Analyses – Data Plotted
![Page 25: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Weather Analyses – Data Contoured
![Page 26: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
• Similar to manual, single-parameter applications in that one agricultural or meteorological parameter is displayed and analyzed on each map, however, the process for creating these products has been automated
• Product creation process can be time consuming and tedious if a large number of products are desired and these products are created manually
• Automation significantly reduces the time and labor required to produce these products
Automated, Single-Parameter Applications
![Page 27: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
![Page 28: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
• Object-oriented programming language, enables users to automate various tasks associated with mapping
• Examples of automation:– loading data
– spatial analysis (e.g., contouring)
– defining map scale/extent
– annotation
– creating a map legend
– exporting/printing a map
World Agricultural Outlook Board
Avenue Scripts
![Page 29: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
World Agricultural Outlook Board
Daily Plot Maps
Empty, partially filled, and completely filled green circles symbolize precipitation amounts
Blue number = minimum temperature
Red number = maximum temperature
Green number = precipitation
![Page 30: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
![Page 31: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Color Contour Maps
WesternCape
EasternCape
NorthernCape
OrangeFreeState
KwaZuluNatal
North-West
NorthernProvince
Mpum.Gau.
NAMIBIABOTSWANA
ZIMBABWE
LESOTHO
MOZAMBIQUE
ZAMBIAANGOLA
SWAZ.
INDIANOCEAN
Percent of Normal
< 25 % 25 - 50 %
50 - 75 % 75 - 100 %100 - 125 %125 - 150 %150 - 200 %
> 200 %
Precip. = 0
Percent of Normal
< 25 % 25 - 50 %
50 - 75 % 75 - 100 %100 - 125 %125 - 150 %150 - 200 %
> 200 %
Precip. = 0
Southern AfricaPercent of Normal Precipitation
December 1, 2001 - December 31, 2001
![Page 32: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
• Refer to those WAOB products that map two or more agrometeorological parameters and are generally labor-intensive to create
• Demonstrate the significant overlay capabilities of GIS, specifically the ability to visualize – and quantify – the percent of agriculture affected by various types of weather
• Often typify the special crop weather assessments prepared by WAOB meteorologists in response to extreme or severe weather
World Agricultural Outlook Board
Manual, Multiple-Parameter Applications
Minimum Temperatures in Winter Wheat AreasApril 13, 2004
100%
93%
49%18%
8%
OK
KS
NE
CO
TX
XX = Minimum Temperature
XX% = Percent Crop Jointing
= Minor Growing Area
= Major Growing Area
LEGEND
XX%(Source: NOAA)
(Source: NASS)World Agricultural Outlook BoardJoint Agricultural Weather Facility
![Page 33: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Crop Weather Analyses – Hurricane Frances
![Page 34: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Crop Weather Analyses – Hurricane Ivan
![Page 35: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
![Page 36: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
![Page 37: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
![Page 38: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
• In 1999, government and university scientists began working together to produce the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), a weekly product designed to provide a single snapshot of the spatial extent and intensity of drought in U.S.
• Drought experts from four agencies are responsible for coordinating USDM production each week
• On a rotating basis, an individual from one of these agencies serves as product author for the week, and typically authors the product for 2 weeks.
World Agricultural Outlook Board
U.S. Drought Monitor – Background
![Page 39: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
• Each Monday, author consults data from numerous sources– quantitative observational networks
– model output
– satellite and radar imagery
– subjective reports
• Author uses these data to prepare a first draft of the USDM for that week
• Draft distributed via email list-server to approximately 150 people, including fellow authors and climate and water experts from around the country.
World Agricultural Outlook Board
U.S. Drought Monitor - Methodology
1st draft
1st draft
1st draft
1st draft
2nd draft
2nd draft
2nd draft
2nd draft
3rd draft
3rd draft
3rd draft
3rd draft
FINAL
FINAL
FINAL
FINAL
![Page 40: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
• Members of drought list provide author feedback, used to refine USDM
• Through iterative process, author prepares and distributes 2-3 drafts of the USDM during Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of each week to obtain the best product possible.
• Final product and an accompanying text summary posted every Thursday at 0830 LT on the USDM web site: (http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html)
World Agricultural Outlook Board
U.S. Drought Monitor - Methodology
![Page 41: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
![Page 42: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
• Originally prepared using CorelDraw– unable to overlay indices
– quantitative analysis not possible
• USDM authors switched to ArcGIS
• Authors obtained professional training– draw drought areas
– annotate map
– print/export product
• Initial difficulties using GIS blamed on– author inexperience
– deadlines limiting troubleshooting time
World Agricultural Outlook Board
U.S. Drought Monitor - Software
![Page 43: World Agricultural Outlook Board Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications Robert Stefanski and Ray Motha World Meteorological.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022062803/56649c6e5503460f94920b46/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Thank You !