WMO Drought Activities

Robert Stefanski

Chief, Agricultural Meteorology Division

WMO

Source: Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes (1970–2012), WMO, WMO- No. 1123

WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data Main

Distribution of (a) number of reported disasters, (b) reported deaths and (c) reported economic losses (1970–2012)

(a) (b) (c)

Global

WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data Main

Global

Source: Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes (1970–2012), WMO, WMO- No. 1123

MainWMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data

Source: Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes (1970–2012), WMO, WMO- No. 1123

Regional Intercomparisons

AFR SAM NCA PAC EURASIA

6

Global Framework for Climate Services

WORLD CLIMATE CONFERENCE - 3Geneva, Switzerland

31 August–4 September 2009

Goal: Enable better management of the risks of climate variability and change and adaptation to climate change at all levels, through development and incorporation of science-based climate information and prediction into planning, policy and practice.

7

Why a Framework for Climate Services?

Many countries lack the infrastructural, technical, human and institutional capacities to provide high-quality climate services.

Infrastructural Capacities of Countries as of Aug 2010 to provide Basic, Essential, Full and Advanced Climate Services.

Essential

Full

Advanced

Less than Basic

Basic

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Infrastrucal Capacity Category

# of

Cou

ntrie

s/Te

rrito

ries

GFCS Priorities Agriculture Disaster risk reduction Water Health

9

GFCS Components User Interface Platform (UIP)

Climate Services Information System (CSIS)

Observations and Monitoring

Research, Modeling and Prediction

Capacity Building

10

High-Level Meeting on National Drought Policies

March 11-15 2013 Over 414 participants from 87 countries Main Partners – UNCCD, FAO, WMO Key message: Help countries move from

reactive to proactive drought policies

12 representatives of UN agencies and international and regional organizations (UNU, IFRC, IOM, CBD, WFP, IAEA, UNECA, JRC, ICARDA, GWP, ACMAD, ISDR)

Final Declaration adopted – www.wmo.int/hmndp

13

Regional National Drought Management Policy Workshops

Central & Eastern Europe, Romania - July 2013 Latin America and Caribbean, Brazil, Dec 2013 Asia-Pacific, Vietnam, May 2014 Eastern & Southern Africa, Ethiopia, Aug 2014 North Africa and SW Asia, Egypt, Nov 2014

West Africa / Wrap up – 2015

14

National Drought Management Policy Workshops - Sessions

Country Reports Keynote Presentation – Don Wilhite

Drought monitoring and early warning systems - WMO Vulnerability and risk assessment – UNCCD Biodiversity and Drought – CBD Drought preparedness, mitigation and responses – FAO

www.ais.unwater.org/droughtmanagement

1515

Users of Agrometeorological Information

Any drought decision-maker: International officials (i.e. Red Cross, WFP, ISDR) Government officials Ag Extension agent, Water resource manager Farmers, ranchers, foresters, fishers Media General public

Indicators & Triggers Definitions

Indicators: Variables to describe drought conditions.

Examples: precipitation, streamflows, groundwater, reservoir levels, soil moisture, Palmer indices, …

Triggers: Specific values of the indicator that initiate and terminate each level of a drought plan, and associated management responses.

Example: precipitation below the 5th percentile for two consecutive months is a Level 4 Drought.

Source: Svoboda, 2009

Integrated Drought Management Programme - IDMP

www.idmp.info

The Cycle of Disaster Management

Source: National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln

IDMP Objectives

To support stakeholders at all levels by providing policy and management guidance and by sharing scientific information, knowledge and best practices for Integrated Drought Management. 

Contributes to global coordination of drought-related efforts of existing organizations & agencies: Better scientific understanding & inputs for drought

management; Drought risk assessment, monitoring, prediction and

early warning; Policy and planning for drought preparedness and

mitigation across sectors; and Drought risk reduction and response

IDMP Areas of Work

1) Development of Tools

2) Capacity Building

3) Demonstration Projects

4) Responding to Regional and National Needs

5) Development of Drought HelpDesk

Drought Help DeskTwo function areas

Help Yourself- Drought Management Tools

- Questions and Answers bank

- Reference Centre databases

- Discussion group using social media

Get Help- Personal assitance for Drought Management

(policies, laws, strategies)

- Capacity building

- A rapid guidance to the tools of the Help Yourself

Current Actions - IDMP

Established at HMNDP – March 2013 Donor funding to IDMP

Technical Support Unit created Jul-Aug 2013

Advisory Committee & Management Meeting Sep 2014

IDMP regional projects Central and Eastern Europe West Africa East Africa South Asia Drought Monitoring System (IWMI)

Organizations interested to participate in IDMP (Status November 2014)

• Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)

• United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD)

• Australian Bureau of Meteorology

• Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)

• International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA)

• International Commission for Irrigation and Drainage (ICID)

• International Water Management Institute (IWMI)

• Joint Research Centre (JRC)

• Mexico’s National Water Commission (CONAGUA)

• Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI)

• U.S. National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC)

• UNDP Cap-Net

• United Nations Development Progamme (UNDP)

• United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)

• United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)

• United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR)

• University of Nebraska Daugherty Water for Food Institute

• University of Southern Queensland

• UN-Water Decade Programme on Capacity Development

• World Bank

IDMP CEE (Central and Eastern Europe) Executed by GWP CEE. Implementation well on its way

with 64 agreements with 28 partner institutions. Implementation started in June 2013. Fundraising for continuation beyond 2015 ongoing.

Focus of the IDMP CEE: Awareness raising National Drought Policies/ Action Plans:

Guidelines for preparation of the drought management plans within river basin management plans according to European Union Water Framework Directive

National consultation dialogues to discuss preparation of drought management plans

Drought monitoring platform with information for the region on the status of drought

Demonstration projects testing innovative solutions for better resilience to drought

Capacity building trainings and workshops on national and regional levels

Documentation: Compendium of good practices

South Asian Drought Monitoring Systema collaboration of GWP-WMO-IWMI as part of the

WMO/GWP Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP)

Regional Drought Monitoring System to support regionally coordinated drought mitigation efforts that can be further tailored to the national level

Moving from crisis management to risk management User ownership through GWP South Asian Regional Water Partnerships

with the Country Water Partnerships in Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka to work with relevant actors from Government, research and civil society in the region to ensure the system addresses need.

Technical development by CGIAR International Water Management Institute integrating remote sensing and ground truth data (vegetation indices, rainfall data, soil information, hydrological data) for

Government support through WMO Climate Outlook Fora, Regional Climate Centers and HydroMet Services as platforms for knowledge exchange and user involvement

South Asian Drought Monitoring SystemExpected Outputs

Enhanced understanding and quantification of drought’s magnitude, spatial extent, and potential impact to capture the complexity of drought onset, progression, and extremity;

Produce historical to current high spatial and temporal drought risk maps to provide current view of drought propagation on a weekly-basis;

Identify drought hotspots, support preparedness and drought mitigation and provide early warning at regional, national, state and community level

Operational drought monitoring system(s) installed in national center(s) and regional hub

National capacity in drought monitoring built in all participating countries to address the gaps identified through needs assessment

Regional sharing and dissemination of operational drought information the users can download at country level for subsequent analysis

29

Outcomes of Sep 2014 IDMP Meetings Proposed publications:

Integrated Drought Management Framework Document

Drought Indices Handbook Series of Case Studies

Engage with partners to exchange information on drought to further enhance HelpDesk

Develop cooperation mechanism with partners to allow contributions to IDMP in consistent way avoiding duplications.

Consider organizing an international conference on drought management in 2016

30 30

2009 Seminar - Mali Met Service Presentation

31 31

2009 Seminar – Farmers ask Questions

32 32

2009 Seminar – Demonstration of Raingauge

33

Distribution of Rainguages to Nigerian Farmers

Goal: increased self-reliance of rural farmers by raising awareness of effective weather & climate risk management and sustainable use of weather and climate information and services for agricultural production.

(2008-2013) involved 15 countries organized over 350 seminars

14,300 farmers participated including 1,400 rural women

7,000+ rain gauges were distributed

METAGRI Project - Roving Seminars on Weather, Climate and Farmers in West Africa

S2S structure

35

Daily real-time forecasts + re-forecasts 3 weeks behind real-time Common grid (1.5x1.5 degree)

Variables archived: about 80 variables including ocean variables, stratospheric levels and soil moisture/temperature

Archived in GRIB2 – NETCDF conversion available

Database to open in early 2015, initially with 3 models (ECMWF, NCEP and JMA)

www.s2sprediction.net

Database Description

Time-range

Resol. Ens. Size

Freq. Hcsts Hcst length

Hcst Freq Hcst Size

ECMWF D 0-32 T639/319L91

51 2/week On the fly Past 18y 2/weekly 11

UKMO D 0-60 N96L85 4 daily On the fly 1989-2003

4/month 3

NCEP D 0-45 N126L64 4 4/daily Fix 1999-2010

4/daily 1

EC D 0-35 0.6x0.6L40 21 weekly On the fly Past 15y weekly 4

CAWCR D 0-60 T47L17 33 weekly Fix 1981-2013

6/month 33

JMA D 0-34 T159L60 50 weekly Fix 1979-2009

3/month 5

KMA D 0-60 N216L85 4 daily On the fly 1996-2009

4/month 3

CMA D 0-45 T106L40 4 daily Fix 1992-now daily 4

Met.Fr D 0-60 T127L31 51 monthly Fix 1981-2005

monthly 11

SAWS D 0-60 T42L19 6 monthly Fix 1981-2010

monthly 6

HMCR D 0-63 1.1x1.4 L28 20 weekly Fix 1981-2010

weekly 10

S2S partners

Summary related to GDIS Issues

Global Drought Research / Forecasting important (WCRP, S2S, GFCS-CSIS)

Regional Monitoring can be linked to existing projects & capacity development at regional / national projects

Users / partners includes RCCs / RCOFs, UN (WFP, FAO), CCAFS, FEWSNET, GEOGLAM

Focus on areas not covered

Data issues need to be addressed at several levels (GFCS, WIGOS, GDIS partners)

www.wmo.int

Thank you for your attention

rstefanski@wmo.int

WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data Main

Global

Source: Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes (1970–2012), WMO, WMO- No. 1123

WMO

MainWMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data

Source: Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes (1970–2012), WMO, WMO- No. 1123

Regional Intercomparisons

AFR SAM NCA PAC EURASIA