World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts
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Transcript of World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts
World Agricultural Outlook BoardInteragency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts
May 9, 2014
May 9, 2014
World Wheat Production
Country or Region2013/14 estimate
2014/15 forecast
Change from 2013/14
Million Tons Percent
World 714.0 697.0 -2.4United States 58.0 53.4 -7.8
Foreign 656.0 643.6 -1.9Argentina 10.5 12.5 19.0Canada 37.5 28.5 -24.0Australia 27.0 25.5 -5.6European Union 143.3 144.9 1.1Russia 52.1 52.0 -0.2Ukraine 22.3 20.0 -10.2Kazakhstan 13.9 14.5 4.0China 121.7 123.0 1.1India 93.5 94.0 0.5
TURKEY
IRAQIRAN
SYRIA
MODIS satelliteNASA GSFC
NDVI Anomaly above
average
below
MIDDLE EAST Winter Grains Crop Situation
TURKEY
IRAQIRAN
SYRIA
23 – 30 Apr 2014
May 9, 2014
4
MODIS Aqua Satellite Composite NDVI Percent Anomaly ImageComparison to mean: 04/23 - 04/30 2014
Spain
France
UnitedKingdom Germany
Sweden
Poland
Czech
AustriaRomaniaHungary
BulgariaItaly
Greece
Slovakia
Ireland
Serbia
Croatia
Denmark
4/23 – 4/30 2013
May 9, 2014
May 9, 2014
World Wheat Supply and Use
Country or Region2013/14 estimate
2014/15 forecast
Change from 2013/14
Million Tons Percent
Beginning stocks 175.3 186.5 6.4Production 714.0 697.0 -2.4Total Supply 889.3 883.6 -0.6
Feed use 133.0 128.1 -3.7Total use 702.8 696.2 -0.9
Trade 162.0 151.8 -6.3Ending Stocks 186.5 187.4 0.5
May 9, 2014
U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand2013/14 estimate
2014/15 forecast
Change from 2013/14Percent
Planted area (million acres) 56.2 55.8 -0.6Harvested area (million acres) 45.2 45.9 1.7Yield (bushels per acre) 47.2 42.7 -9.5
Million bushelsBeginning stocks 718 583 -18.8Production 2,130 1,963 -7.8Imports 175 160 -8.6Total supply 3,023 2,706 -10.5
Food use 960 970 1.0Seed 74 76 2.2Feed and residual 220 170 -22.7Domestic use 1,254 1,216 -3.1
Exports 1,185 950 -19.8Total use 2,439 2,166 -11.2
Ending stocks 583 540 -7.3Percent
Stocks to use ratio 23.9 25.0Dollars per bushel
Average market price 6.85 6.65/7.95 6.6
May 9, 2014
World Rice ProductionCountry or
Region2013/14 estimate
2014/15 forecast
Change from 2013/14
Million Tons Percent
World 476.1 480.7 1.0United States 6.1 6.8 11.4
Foreign 470.0 473.9 0.8Brazil 8.6 8.5 -1.2Egypt 4.9 4.9 0.4Bangladesh 34.6 34.8 0.6Cambodia 4.7 4.9 3.7China 142.3 144.0 1.2India 105.0 106.0 1.0Indonesia 37.4 37.7 0.9Japan 7.8 7.7 -1.7Sri Lanka 2.8 2.8 1.8Pakistan 6.6 6.7 1.5Philippines 11.9 12.2 2.6Thailand 20.5 20.5 0.0Vietnam 27.8 27.8 0.0
May 9, 2014
World Rice Supply and UseCountry or
Region2013/14 estimate
2014/15 forecast
Change from 2013/14
Million Tons Percent
Beginning stocks 110.1 111.2 1.0Production 476.1 480.7 1.0Total Supply 586.2 592.0 1.0Total use 475.0 482.2 1.5
Trade 40.8 41.4 1.5Ending Stocks 111.2 109.8 -1.3
May 9, 2014
U.S. Rice Supply and DemandRough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice
2013/14 estimate
2014/15 forecast
Change from 2013/14Percent
Planted area (million acres) 2.49 2.88 15.6Harvested area (million acres) 2.47 2.85 15.6Yield (pounds per acre) 7,694 7,468 -2.9
Million cwtBeginning stocks 36.4 29.3 -19.5Production 189.9 213.0 12.2Imports 22.0 22.0 0.0Total supply 248.3 264.3 6.4
Domestic use 124.0 128.0 3.2Exports 95.0 102.0 7.4Total use 219.0 230.0 5.0
Ending stocks 29.3 34.3 17.1Percent
Stocks to use ratio 13.4 14.9Dollars per cwt
Average market price 15.80/16.40 15.00/16.00 -3.7
May 9, 2014
World Corn Production
World wheat World wheat
Country or Region2012/13 estimate
2013/14 forecast
Change from previous month
Change from 2012/13
Previous month Country or Region
2012/13 estimate
2013/14 forecast
Change from 2012/13
Million Tons Percent Percent 1 3 1 3 6 2 Million Tons Percent Afghanistan
World 655.6 697.9 #REF! 6.4 #REF! #REF! 655.6 #REF! 697.9 #REF! #REF! World 655.6 697.9 6.4 Albania
United States 61.8 54.4 #REF! -11.9 United States #REF! #REF! 61.8 #REF! 54.4 #REF! #REF! United States 61.8 54.4 -11.9 Algeria
Foreign 593.9 643.5 #REF! 8.4 #REF! #REF! 593.9 #REF! 643.5 #REF! #REF! Foreign 593.9 643.5 8.4 Angola
Argentina 11.0 13.0 #REF! 18.2 Argentina #REF! 11.0 #REF! #REF! 13.0 #REF! #REF! Argentina 11.0 13.0 18.2 Argentina
Canada 27.2 27.5 #REF! 1.1 Canada #REF! #REF! 27.2 #REF! 27.5 #REF! #REF! Canada 27.2 27.5 1.1 Armenia
Australia 22.1 24.5 #REF! 11.0 Australia #REF! #REF! 22.1 #REF! 24.5 #REF! #REF! Australia 22.1 24.5 11.0 Australia
European Union 132.1 138.8 #REF! 5.1 EU-27 #REF! #REF! 132.1 #REF! 138.8 #REF! #REF! European Union 132.1 138.8 5.1 Azerbaijan
Russian Federation 37.7 56.0 #REF! 48.5 Russia #REF! #REF! 37.7 #REF! 56.0 #REF! #REF! Russian Federation 37.7 56.0 48.5 Bahrain
Ukraine 15.8 22.0 #REF! 39.6 Ukraine #REF! #REF! 15.8 #REF! 22.0 #REF! #REF! Ukraine 15.8 22.0 39.6 Bangladesh
Kazakhstan 9.8 15.0 #REF! 52.4 Kazakhstan #REF! #REF! 9.8 #REF! 15.0 #REF! #REF! Kazakhstan 9.8 15.0 52.4 Barbados
China 120.6 121.0 #REF! 0.3 China #REF! 120.6 #REF! #REF! 121.0 #REF! #REF! China 120.6 121.0 0.3 Belarus
India 94.9 92.0 #REF! -3.0 India #REF! #REF! 94.9 #REF! 92.0 #REF! #REF! India 94.9 92.0 -3.0 Bhutan
Bolivia Bosnia and Herzegovina Brazil Bulgaria Burkina Burma Cameroon Canada Chad Chile China Colombia Congo (Brazzaville) Congo (Kinshasa) Costa Rica Cote d'Ivoire Croatia Cuba Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Eritrea Ethiopia EU-25 EU-27 Fiji Gabon Georgia Ghana Guatemala Guinea Guyana Haiti Honduras Hong Kong India Indonesia Iran Iraq Israel Jamaica Japan Jordan Kazakhstan Kenya Korea, North Korea, South Kuwait Kyrgyzstan Lebanon Lesotho Liberia Libya Macedonia Madagascar Malaysia Mauritania Mauritius Mexico Moldova Mongolia Morocco Mozambique Nepal New Zealand Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Norway Oman Pakistan Panama Papua New Guinea Paraguay Peru Philippines Romania Russia Saudi Arabia Senegal Serbia Serbia and Montenegro Sierra Leone Singapore Somalia South Africa Sri Lanka Sudan Switzerland Syria Taiwan Tajikistan Tanzania Thailand Togo Trinidad and Tobago Tunisia Turkey Turkmenistan Ukraine United Arab Emirates United States Uruguay Uzbekistan Venezuela Vietnam Yemen Zambia Zimbabwe
2012/13 estimate
2013/14 forecast Previous month
Country or Region2013/14 estimate
2014/15 forecast
Change from 2013/14
Million Tons Percent
World 979.0 979.1 0.0United States 353.7 354.0 0.1
Foreign 625.3 625.1 0.0Argentina 24.0 26.0 8.3Brazil 75.0 74.0 -1.3Mexico 21.9 22.5 2.7Canada 14.2 12.5 -12.0European Union 64.6 64.6 0.1FSU-12 47.0 42.7 -9.2Ukraine 30.9 26.0 -15.9Russia 11.6 12.5 7.4
South Africa 14.0 13.5 -3.6China 217.7 220.0 1.0India 23.0 22.0 -4.3
Source: State Statistical Committee
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Ukraine: Estimated Corn Area and Abandonment
Area Harv Abandoned
KHa
Abandonment is forecast at nearly 7 percent, twice the 5-year average.
May 9, 2014
Apr 24 May 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 June 40.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Ukraine Corn Planting Progress
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Mill
ion
hect
ares
Source: MinAg
Corn planting was 79% complete by May
8.
May 9, 2014
Sources: GTIS (seed imports); USDA (yield)
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Ukraine: Seed-Corn Imports and Corn Yield
Through Jan After Jan Yield
Seed
impo
rts
(1,0
00 to
ns)
Yiel
d (T
ons
per h
ecta
re)
• GTIS data are available only through January.• Louis-Dreyfus analyst reports that corn-hybrid seed
imports were up 50 percent at the end of February.• An estimated 25 to 50 percent of total corn area is
planted with hybrid seed.
May 9, 2014
Ja
n 0
7
Ja
n 0
8
Ja
n 0
9
Ja
n 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Ja
n 1
2
Ja
n 1
3
Ja
n 1
40
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Ukraine Currency Exchange Rate: UAH to USDU
AH
/US
D
According to chief APK-Inform analyst, the decrease and fluctuation of the value of the UAH in 2009 had an unfavorable impact on spring-crop yields in Ukraine.
May 9, 2014
A 40-percent drop in the value of the UAH has increased prices for fuel, fertilizer, and chemicals. Producers will compensate by:
• using cheaper materials;• purchasing untreated seed and treating it
themselves;• focusing on fields with higher yield potential;• consolidating field operations.
Weather remains the top yield determinant.
May 9, 2014
May 9, 2014
World Corn Supply and Use
Country or Region2013/14 estimate
2014/15 forecast
Change from 2013/14
Million Tons Percent
Beginning stocks 138.2 168.4 21.9Production 979.0 979.1 0.0Total Supply 1,117.2 1,147.5 2.7
Feed use 574.7 592.3 3.1Total use 948.8 965.8 1.8
Trade 121.9 115.7 -5.0Ending Stocks 168.4 181.7 7.9
May 9, 2014
U.S. Corn Supply and Demand
World wheat World wheat
Country or Region2012/13 estimate
2013/14 forecast
Change from previous month
Change from 2012/13
Previous month Country or Region
2012/13 estimate
2013/14 forecast
Change from 2012/13
Million Tons Percent Percent 1 3 1 3 6 2 Million Tons Percent Afghanistan
World 655.6 697.9 #REF! 6.4 #REF! #REF! 655.6 #REF! 697.9 #REF! #REF! World 655.6 697.9 6.4 Albania
United States 61.8 54.4 #REF! -11.9 United States #REF! #REF! 61.8 #REF! 54.4 #REF! #REF! United States 61.8 54.4 -11.9 Algeria
Foreign 593.9 643.5 #REF! 8.4 #REF! #REF! 593.9 #REF! 643.5 #REF! #REF! Foreign 593.9 643.5 8.4 Angola
Argentina 11.0 13.0 #REF! 18.2 Argentina #REF! 11.0 #REF! #REF! 13.0 #REF! #REF! Argentina 11.0 13.0 18.2 Argentina
Canada 27.2 27.5 #REF! 1.1 Canada #REF! #REF! 27.2 #REF! 27.5 #REF! #REF! Canada 27.2 27.5 1.1 Armenia
Australia 22.1 24.5 #REF! 11.0 Australia #REF! #REF! 22.1 #REF! 24.5 #REF! #REF! Australia 22.1 24.5 11.0 Australia
European Union 132.1 138.8 #REF! 5.1 EU-27 #REF! #REF! 132.1 #REF! 138.8 #REF! #REF! European Union 132.1 138.8 5.1 Azerbaijan
Russian Federation 37.7 56.0 #REF! 48.5 Russia #REF! #REF! 37.7 #REF! 56.0 #REF! #REF! Russian Federation 37.7 56.0 48.5 Bahrain
Ukraine 15.8 22.0 #REF! 39.6 Ukraine #REF! #REF! 15.8 #REF! 22.0 #REF! #REF! Ukraine 15.8 22.0 39.6 Bangladesh
Kazakhstan 9.8 15.0 #REF! 52.4 Kazakhstan #REF! #REF! 9.8 #REF! 15.0 #REF! #REF! Kazakhstan 9.8 15.0 52.4 Barbados
China 120.6 121.0 #REF! 0.3 China #REF! 120.6 #REF! #REF! 121.0 #REF! #REF! China 120.6 121.0 0.3 Belarus
India 94.9 92.0 #REF! -3.0 India #REF! #REF! 94.9 #REF! 92.0 #REF! #REF! India 94.9 92.0 -3.0 Bhutan
Bolivia Bosnia and Herzegovina Brazil Bulgaria Burkina Burma Cameroon Canada Chad Chile China Colombia Congo (Brazzaville) Congo (Kinshasa) Costa Rica Cote d'Ivoire Croatia Cuba Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Eritrea Ethiopia EU-25 EU-27 Fiji Gabon Georgia Ghana Guatemala Guinea Guyana Haiti Honduras Hong Kong India Indonesia Iran Iraq Israel Jamaica Japan Jordan Kazakhstan Kenya Korea, North Korea, South Kuwait Kyrgyzstan Lebanon Lesotho Liberia Libya Macedonia Madagascar Malaysia Mauritania Mauritius Mexico Moldova Mongolia Morocco Mozambique Nepal New Zealand Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Norway Oman Pakistan Panama Papua New Guinea Paraguay Peru Philippines Romania Russia Saudi Arabia Senegal Serbia Serbia and Montenegro Sierra Leone Singapore Somalia South Africa Sri Lanka Sudan Switzerland Syria Taiwan Tajikistan Tanzania Thailand Togo Trinidad and Tobago Tunisia Turkey Turkmenistan Ukraine United Arab Emirates United States Uruguay Uzbekistan Venezuela Vietnam Yemen Zambia Zimbabwe
2012/13 estimate
2013/14 forecast Previous month
2013/14 estimate
2014/15 forecast
Change from 2013/14Percent
Planted area (million acres) 95.4 91.7 -3.9Harvested area (million acres) 87.7 84.3 -3.8Yield (bushels per acre) 158.8 165.3 4.1
Million bushelsBeginning stocks 821 1,146 39.6Production 13,925 13,935 0.1Imports 35 30 -14.3Total supply 14,781 15,111 2.2
Feed and residual 5,300 5,250 -0.9Food, seed, and industrial 6,435 6,435 0.0Ethanol 5,050 5,050 0.0Domestic use 11,735 11,685 -0.4
Exports 1,900 1,700 -10.5Total use 13,635 13,385 -1.8
Ending stocks 1,146 1,726 50.6Percent
Stocks to use ratio 8.4 12.9Dollars per bushel
Average market price 4.50/4.80 3.85/4.55 -9.7
18
Corn Yield• Yield = F (mid-May planting, July temperatures and precipitation, and June
precipitation if extremely dry)• 8-State Corn Belt area (IL, IN, IA, MN, MO, NE, SD, OH)• States normally account for about 75 percent of productionSource: Westcott and Jewison, Weather Effects on Expected Corn and Soybean Yields, USDA-ERS,
Feed Outlook No. (FDS-13G-01), July 2013.
• July temperature and precipitation assumed at the 1988-2013 means
• 8-state planting progress as of mid-May• Ag Outlook Forum trend of 165.3 assumed normal mid-May planting
progress• May 15, 2014, unknown until the May 19th Crop Progress report• May 4th progress at 29.1 percent for 8-state region, well ahead of last year at
this time, but behind normal.
May 9, 2014
Corn Planting Progress
4/6
4/9
4/12
4/15
4/18
4/21
4/24
4/27
4/30 5/
35/
65/
95/
125/
155/
185/
215/
245/
275/
300
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
29.1
1990-2013 Avg. 20122013 2014
Comparable weeks based on NASS reporting week
Percent
47.1
60.3
17.7
64.8
Source: NASS, Quick Stats 2.0
5/15
May 9, 2014
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
Actual Yield
Weather-Adjusted Trend
May WASDE Projection
bu/acre
2014 Ag Outlook Forum: 165.32014 May WASDE: 165.3
Corn Weather-Adjusted Trend Yield vs. Actual and Projected
May 9, 2014
May 9, 2014
World Soybean Production
World wheat World wheat
Country or Region2012/13 estimate
2013/14 forecast
Change from previous month
Change from 2012/13
Previous month Country or Region
2012/13 estimate
2013/14 forecast
Change from 2012/13
Million Tons Percent Percent 1 3 1 3 6 2 Million Tons Percent Afghanistan
World 655.6 697.9 #REF! 6.4 #REF! #REF! 655.6 #REF! 697.9 #REF! #REF! World 655.6 697.9 6.4 Albania
United States 61.8 54.4 #REF! -11.9 United States #REF! #REF! 61.8 #REF! 54.4 #REF! #REF! United States 61.8 54.4 -11.9 Algeria
Foreign 593.9 643.5 #REF! 8.4 #REF! #REF! 593.9 #REF! 643.5 #REF! #REF! Foreign 593.9 643.5 8.4 Angola
Argentina 11.0 13.0 #REF! 18.2 Argentina #REF! 11.0 #REF! #REF! 13.0 #REF! #REF! Argentina 11.0 13.0 18.2 Argentina
Canada 27.2 27.5 #REF! 1.1 Canada #REF! #REF! 27.2 #REF! 27.5 #REF! #REF! Canada 27.2 27.5 1.1 Armenia
Australia 22.1 24.5 #REF! 11.0 Australia #REF! #REF! 22.1 #REF! 24.5 #REF! #REF! Australia 22.1 24.5 11.0 Australia
European Union 132.1 138.8 #REF! 5.1 EU-27 #REF! #REF! 132.1 #REF! 138.8 #REF! #REF! European Union 132.1 138.8 5.1 Azerbaijan
Russian Federation 37.7 56.0 #REF! 48.5 Russia #REF! #REF! 37.7 #REF! 56.0 #REF! #REF! Russian Federation 37.7 56.0 48.5 Bahrain
Ukraine 15.8 22.0 #REF! 39.6 Ukraine #REF! #REF! 15.8 #REF! 22.0 #REF! #REF! Ukraine 15.8 22.0 39.6 Bangladesh
Kazakhstan 9.8 15.0 #REF! 52.4 Kazakhstan #REF! #REF! 9.8 #REF! 15.0 #REF! #REF! Kazakhstan 9.8 15.0 52.4 Barbados
China 120.6 121.0 #REF! 0.3 China #REF! 120.6 #REF! #REF! 121.0 #REF! #REF! China 120.6 121.0 0.3 Belarus
India 94.9 92.0 #REF! -3.0 India #REF! #REF! 94.9 #REF! 92.0 #REF! #REF! India 94.9 92.0 -3.0 Bhutan
Bolivia Bosnia and Herzegovina Brazil Bulgaria Burkina Burma Cameroon Canada Chad Chile China Colombia Congo (Brazzaville) Congo (Kinshasa) Costa Rica Cote d'Ivoire Croatia Cuba Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Eritrea Ethiopia EU-25 EU-27 Fiji Gabon Georgia Ghana Guatemala Guinea Guyana Haiti Honduras Hong Kong India Indonesia Iran Iraq Israel Jamaica Japan Jordan Kazakhstan Kenya Korea, North Korea, South Kuwait Kyrgyzstan Lebanon Lesotho Liberia Libya Macedonia Madagascar Malaysia Mauritania Mauritius Mexico Moldova Mongolia Morocco Mozambique Nepal New Zealand Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Norway Oman Pakistan Panama Papua New Guinea Paraguay Peru Philippines Romania Russia Saudi Arabia Senegal Serbia Serbia and Montenegro Sierra Leone Singapore Somalia South Africa Sri Lanka Sudan Switzerland Syria Taiwan Tajikistan Tanzania Thailand Togo Trinidad and Tobago Tunisia Turkey Turkmenistan Ukraine United Arab Emirates United States Uruguay Uzbekistan Venezuela Vietnam Yemen Zambia Zimbabwe
2012/13 estimate
2013/14 forecast Previous month
Country or Region
2013/14 estimate
2014/15 forecast
Change from 2013/14
Million Tons Percent
World 283.8 299.8 5.6United States 89.5 98.9 10.5
Foreign 194.3 200.9 3.4Argentina 54.0 54.0 0.0Brazil 87.5 91.0 4.0Paraguay 8.1 8.2 1.2Ukraine 2.8 3.2 15.4India 11.0 12.0 9.1China 12.2 12.0 -1.6
May 9, 2014
U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand
World wheat World wheat
Country or Region2012/13 estimate
2013/14 forecast
Change from previous month
Change from 2012/13
Previous month Country or Region
2012/13 estimate
2013/14 forecast
Change from 2012/13
Million Tons Percent Percent 1 3 1 3 6 2 Million Tons Percent Afghanistan
World 655.6 697.9 #REF! 6.4 #REF! #REF! 655.6 #REF! 697.9 #REF! #REF! World 655.6 697.9 6.4 Albania
United States 61.8 54.4 #REF! -11.9 United States #REF! #REF! 61.8 #REF! 54.4 #REF! #REF! United States 61.8 54.4 -11.9 Algeria
Foreign 593.9 643.5 #REF! 8.4 #REF! #REF! 593.9 #REF! 643.5 #REF! #REF! Foreign 593.9 643.5 8.4 Angola
Argentina 11.0 13.0 #REF! 18.2 Argentina #REF! 11.0 #REF! #REF! 13.0 #REF! #REF! Argentina 11.0 13.0 18.2 Argentina
Canada 27.2 27.5 #REF! 1.1 Canada #REF! #REF! 27.2 #REF! 27.5 #REF! #REF! Canada 27.2 27.5 1.1 Armenia
Australia 22.1 24.5 #REF! 11.0 Australia #REF! #REF! 22.1 #REF! 24.5 #REF! #REF! Australia 22.1 24.5 11.0 Australia
European Union 132.1 138.8 #REF! 5.1 EU-27 #REF! #REF! 132.1 #REF! 138.8 #REF! #REF! European Union 132.1 138.8 5.1 Azerbaijan
Russian Federation 37.7 56.0 #REF! 48.5 Russia #REF! #REF! 37.7 #REF! 56.0 #REF! #REF! Russian Federation 37.7 56.0 48.5 Bahrain
Ukraine 15.8 22.0 #REF! 39.6 Ukraine #REF! #REF! 15.8 #REF! 22.0 #REF! #REF! Ukraine 15.8 22.0 39.6 Bangladesh
Kazakhstan 9.8 15.0 #REF! 52.4 Kazakhstan #REF! #REF! 9.8 #REF! 15.0 #REF! #REF! Kazakhstan 9.8 15.0 52.4 Barbados
China 120.6 121.0 #REF! 0.3 China #REF! 120.6 #REF! #REF! 121.0 #REF! #REF! China 120.6 121.0 0.3 Belarus
India 94.9 92.0 #REF! -3.0 India #REF! #REF! 94.9 #REF! 92.0 #REF! #REF! India 94.9 92.0 -3.0 Bhutan
Bolivia Bosnia and Herzegovina Brazil Bulgaria Burkina Burma Cameroon Canada Chad Chile China Colombia Congo (Brazzaville) Congo (Kinshasa) Costa Rica Cote d'Ivoire Croatia Cuba Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Eritrea Ethiopia EU-25 EU-27 Fiji Gabon Georgia Ghana Guatemala Guinea Guyana Haiti Honduras Hong Kong India Indonesia Iran Iraq Israel Jamaica Japan Jordan Kazakhstan Kenya Korea, North Korea, South Kuwait Kyrgyzstan Lebanon Lesotho Liberia Libya Macedonia Madagascar Malaysia Mauritania Mauritius Mexico Moldova Mongolia Morocco Mozambique Nepal New Zealand Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Norway Oman Pakistan Panama Papua New Guinea Paraguay Peru Philippines Romania Russia Saudi Arabia Senegal Serbia Serbia and Montenegro Sierra Leone Singapore Somalia South Africa Sri Lanka Sudan Switzerland Syria Taiwan Tajikistan Tanzania Thailand Togo Trinidad and Tobago Tunisia Turkey Turkmenistan Ukraine United Arab Emirates United States Uruguay Uzbekistan Venezuela Vietnam Yemen Zambia Zimbabwe
2012/13 estimate
2013/14 forecast Previous month
2013/14 estimate
2014/15 forecast
Change from 2013/14Percent
Planted area (million acres) 76.5 81.5 6.5Harvested area (million acres) 75.9 80.5 6.1Yield (bushels per acre) 43.3 45.2 4.3
Million bushelsBeginning stocks 141 130 -7.7Production 3,289 3,635 10.5Imports 90 15 -83.3Total supply 3,519 3,780 7.4
Crush 1,695 1,715 1.2Seed and residual 95 110 16.1Domestic use 1,790 1,825 2.0
Exports 1,600 1,625 1.6Total use 3,390 3,450 1.8
Ending stocks 130 330 154.2Percent
Stocks to use ratio 3.8 9.6Dollars per bushel
Average market price 13.10 9.75/11.75 -17.9
Soybean Weather-Adjusted Trend Yield vs. Actual and Projected
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
25
30
35
40
45
50
Actual YieldWeather-Adjusted TrendMay WASDE Projection
bu/acre
2014 Ag Outlook Forum: 45.22014 May WASDE: 45.2
May 9, 2014
World Cotton Production
World wheat World wheat
Country or Region2012/13 estimate
2013/14 forecast
Change from previous month
Change from 2012/13
Previous month Country or Region
2012/13 estimate
2013/14 forecast
Change from 2012/13
Million Tons Percent Percent 1 3 1 3 6 2 Million Tons Percent Afghanistan
World 655.6 697.9 #REF! 6.4 #REF! #REF! 655.6 #REF! 697.9 #REF! #REF! World 655.6 697.9 6.4 Albania
United States 61.8 54.4 #REF! -11.9 United States #REF! #REF! 61.8 #REF! 54.4 #REF! #REF! United States 61.8 54.4 -11.9 Algeria
Foreign 593.9 643.5 #REF! 8.4 #REF! #REF! 593.9 #REF! 643.5 #REF! #REF! Foreign 593.9 643.5 8.4 Angola
Argentina 11.0 13.0 #REF! 18.2 Argentina #REF! 11.0 #REF! #REF! 13.0 #REF! #REF! Argentina 11.0 13.0 18.2 Argentina
Canada 27.2 27.5 #REF! 1.1 Canada #REF! #REF! 27.2 #REF! 27.5 #REF! #REF! Canada 27.2 27.5 1.1 Armenia
Australia 22.1 24.5 #REF! 11.0 Australia #REF! #REF! 22.1 #REF! 24.5 #REF! #REF! Australia 22.1 24.5 11.0 Australia
European Union 132.1 138.8 #REF! 5.1 EU-27 #REF! #REF! 132.1 #REF! 138.8 #REF! #REF! European Union 132.1 138.8 5.1 Azerbaijan
Russian Federation 37.7 56.0 #REF! 48.5 Russia #REF! #REF! 37.7 #REF! 56.0 #REF! #REF! Russian Federation 37.7 56.0 48.5 Bahrain
Ukraine 15.8 22.0 #REF! 39.6 Ukraine #REF! #REF! 15.8 #REF! 22.0 #REF! #REF! Ukraine 15.8 22.0 39.6 Bangladesh
Kazakhstan 9.8 15.0 #REF! 52.4 Kazakhstan #REF! #REF! 9.8 #REF! 15.0 #REF! #REF! Kazakhstan 9.8 15.0 52.4 Barbados
China 120.6 121.0 #REF! 0.3 China #REF! 120.6 #REF! #REF! 121.0 #REF! #REF! China 120.6 121.0 0.3 Belarus
India 94.9 92.0 #REF! -3.0 India #REF! #REF! 94.9 #REF! 92.0 #REF! #REF! India 94.9 92.0 -3.0 Bhutan
Bolivia Bosnia and Herzegovina Brazil Bulgaria Burkina Burma Cameroon Canada Chad Chile China Colombia Congo (Brazzaville) Congo (Kinshasa) Costa Rica Cote d'Ivoire Croatia Cuba Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Eritrea Ethiopia EU-25 EU-27 Fiji Gabon Georgia Ghana Guatemala Guinea Guyana Haiti Honduras Hong Kong India Indonesia Iran Iraq Israel Jamaica Japan Jordan Kazakhstan Kenya Korea, North Korea, South Kuwait Kyrgyzstan Lebanon Lesotho Liberia Libya Macedonia Madagascar Malaysia Mauritania Mauritius Mexico Moldova Mongolia Morocco Mozambique Nepal New Zealand Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Norway Oman Pakistan Panama Papua New Guinea Paraguay Peru Philippines Romania Russia Saudi Arabia Senegal Serbia Serbia and Montenegro Sierra Leone Singapore Somalia South Africa Sri Lanka Sudan Switzerland Syria Taiwan Tajikistan Tanzania Thailand Togo Trinidad and Tobago Tunisia Turkey Turkmenistan Ukraine United Arab Emirates United States Uruguay Uzbekistan Venezuela Vietnam Yemen Zambia Zimbabwe
2012/13 estimate
2013/14 forecast Previous month
Country or Region2013/14 estimate
2014/15 forecast
Change from 2013/14
Million Bales Percent
World 117.1 115.5 -1.4United States 12.9 14.5 12.3
Foreign 104.2 101.0 -3.1Argentina 1.2 1.2 0.4Brazil 7.5 8.3 10.7Turkey 2.3 2.9 26.1Syria 0.6 0.3 -50.0Australia 4.1 3.1 -24.4China 32.0 29.5 -7.8India 29.5 28.5 -3.4Pakistan 9.5 9.5 0.0Uzbekistan 4.2 4.2 1.2African Franc Zone 4.3 4.1 -4.0
May 9, 2014
Percent of Normal Rainfall
2011/12 = 150%2012/13 = 97%2013/14 = 73%
NSW/QLD Border RegionCumulative Precipitation
May 1 – April 30
May 9, 2014
May 9, 2014
El NinoEpisodes
(remember, this is defined by sea-surface temps!)
El NinoOnset
(when did the sea-surface temp
anomalies appear?)
NegativeSOI
(how did the atmosphere respond?)
Growingseasonrainfall
DrylandArea
(1,000 ha)
2002/03 May(normal onset)
Jun – Oct(quickly – prior to
planting)Below normal 5
2004/05 Jul(normal onset)
Dec – Apr(more slowly – during growing
season)
Near to above normal
33
2006/07 Sep(late onset)
Jul – Oct(quickly – prior to
planting)Below normal 23
2009/10 Jul(normal onset)
Dec – Jan(more slowly – during growing
season)
Near to above normal
15
How does El Nino Impact Australian Cotton?
Much too early to determine El Nino’s impact on production……but the perceived threat may drive acreage.
May 9, 2014
May 9, 2014
World Cotton Supply and Use
Country or Region2013/14 estimate
2014/15 forecast
Change from 2013/14
Million Bales Percent
Beginning stocks 90.0 97.9 8.7Production 117.1 115.5 -1.4Total Supply 207.2 213.4 3.0Total Use 109.4 111.8 2.2
Trade 40.3 36.3 -10.1Ending Stocks 97.9 101.7 3.8
Addendum:China Ending Stocks 59.6 60.5 1.6
May 9, 2014
U.S. Cotton Supply and Demand
World wheat World wheat
Country or Region2012/13 estimate
2013/14 forecast
Change from previous month
Change from 2012/13
Previous month Country or Region
2012/13 estimate
2013/14 forecast
Change from 2012/13
Million Tons Percent Percent 1 3 1 3 6 2 Million Tons Percent Afghanistan
World 655.6 697.9 #REF! 6.4 #REF! #REF! 655.6 #REF! 697.9 #REF! #REF! World 655.6 697.9 6.4 Albania
United States 61.8 54.4 #REF! -11.9 United States #REF! #REF! 61.8 #REF! 54.4 #REF! #REF! United States 61.8 54.4 -11.9 Algeria
Foreign 593.9 643.5 #REF! 8.4 #REF! #REF! 593.9 #REF! 643.5 #REF! #REF! Foreign 593.9 643.5 8.4 Angola
Argentina 11.0 13.0 #REF! 18.2 Argentina #REF! 11.0 #REF! #REF! 13.0 #REF! #REF! Argentina 11.0 13.0 18.2 Argentina
Canada 27.2 27.5 #REF! 1.1 Canada #REF! #REF! 27.2 #REF! 27.5 #REF! #REF! Canada 27.2 27.5 1.1 Armenia
Australia 22.1 24.5 #REF! 11.0 Australia #REF! #REF! 22.1 #REF! 24.5 #REF! #REF! Australia 22.1 24.5 11.0 Australia
European Union 132.1 138.8 #REF! 5.1 EU-27 #REF! #REF! 132.1 #REF! 138.8 #REF! #REF! European Union 132.1 138.8 5.1 Azerbaijan
Russian Federation 37.7 56.0 #REF! 48.5 Russia #REF! #REF! 37.7 #REF! 56.0 #REF! #REF! Russian Federation 37.7 56.0 48.5 Bahrain
Ukraine 15.8 22.0 #REF! 39.6 Ukraine #REF! #REF! 15.8 #REF! 22.0 #REF! #REF! Ukraine 15.8 22.0 39.6 Bangladesh
Kazakhstan 9.8 15.0 #REF! 52.4 Kazakhstan #REF! #REF! 9.8 #REF! 15.0 #REF! #REF! Kazakhstan 9.8 15.0 52.4 Barbados
China 120.6 121.0 #REF! 0.3 China #REF! 120.6 #REF! #REF! 121.0 #REF! #REF! China 120.6 121.0 0.3 Belarus
India 94.9 92.0 #REF! -3.0 India #REF! #REF! 94.9 #REF! 92.0 #REF! #REF! India 94.9 92.0 -3.0 Bhutan
Bolivia Bosnia and Herzegovina Brazil Bulgaria Burkina Burma Cameroon Canada Chad Chile China Colombia Congo (Brazzaville) Congo (Kinshasa) Costa Rica Cote d'Ivoire Croatia Cuba Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Eritrea Ethiopia EU-25 EU-27 Fiji Gabon Georgia Ghana Guatemala Guinea Guyana Haiti Honduras Hong Kong India Indonesia Iran Iraq Israel Jamaica Japan Jordan Kazakhstan Kenya Korea, North Korea, South Kuwait Kyrgyzstan Lebanon Lesotho Liberia Libya Macedonia Madagascar Malaysia Mauritania Mauritius Mexico Moldova Mongolia Morocco Mozambique Nepal New Zealand Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Norway Oman Pakistan Panama Papua New Guinea Paraguay Peru Philippines Romania Russia Saudi Arabia Senegal Serbia Serbia and Montenegro Sierra Leone Singapore Somalia South Africa Sri Lanka Sudan Switzerland Syria Taiwan Tajikistan Tanzania Thailand Togo Trinidad and Tobago Tunisia Turkey Turkmenistan Ukraine United Arab Emirates United States Uruguay Uzbekistan Venezuela Vietnam Yemen Zambia Zimbabwe
2012/13 estimate
2013/14 forecast Previous month
2013/14 estimate
2014/15 forecast
Change from 2013/14Percent
Planted area (million acres) 10.41 11.10 6.7Harvested area (million acres) 7.54 8.45 12.0Yield (pounds per acre) 821 824 0.4
Million balesBeginning stocks 3.90 2.80 -28.2Imports 0.01 0.01 0.0Production 12.91 14.50 12.3Total supply 16.82 17.31 2.9
Mill use 3.60 3.70 2.8Exports 10.40 9.70 -6.7
Total use 14.00 13.40 -4.3Unaccounted 0.02 0.01 0.0
Ending stocks 2.80 3.90 39.3Percent
Stocks/use 20.0 29.1Cents per pound
Average market price 77.5 63.0/83.0 -5.8
Three-Year Running Annual Precipitation Totals, Lubbock, TX
Driest 3-Year Periods1. 2011-132. 1952-543. 1951-534. 1954-565. 1953-55
Wettest 3-Year Periods1. 1967-692. 1985-873. 2006-084. 2008-105. 2007-09
May 9, 2014
2011-13 1916-18 1933-35 1952-540
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Lubbock Texas3-Year Rainfall totals (inches)
36-Month Totals
3-Year Average: 55.5”
May 9, 2014
Cotton Abandonment RatesMay 2014 WASDE
SE Delta SW Far West US0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2011 2012-2013 Avg. May Estimate
perc
ent
aban
done
d
May 9, 2014
U.S. Cotton Yield/Harvested Acre 2006-2013 and May 2014 Projection
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
Crop year
lbs.
/har
vest
ed a
cre
Projected yield = 824 lbs.
May 9, 2014
May 9, 2014
Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand2013/14 estimate
2014/15 forecast
Change from 2013/14
Thousand MT, raw value Percent
Beginning stocks 1,460 947 -35.1Production 6,350 6,500 2.4Imports 226 226 0.0Total Supply 8,036 7,673 -4.5
Domestic use 4,690 4,690 0.0Exports 2,399 2,036 -15.1Total Use 7,089 6,726 -5.1
Ending stocks 947 947 0.0
May 9, 2014
U.S. Sugar Supply and Demand2013/14 estimate
2014/15 forecast
Change from 2013/14
1,000 short tons, raw value PercentBeginning Stocks 2,158 1,596 -26.1Production 8,480 8,495 0.2Beets 4,800 4,750 -1.0Cane 3,680 3,745 1.8
Imports 3,334 3,093 -7.2TRQ 1,369 1,262 -7.8Re-export 110 400 263.6Mexico 1,845 1,421 -23.0High-tier 10 10 0.0Total Supply 13,972 13,184 -5.6
Exports 325 250 -23.1Domestic deliveries 12,051 11,835 -1.8
Total use 12,376 12,085 -2.4Ending stocks 1,596 1,099 -31.2
Percent
Stocks/use ratio 12.9 9.1
May 9, 2014
U.S. Meat Production and Prices2014
estimate2015
forecastChange from
2014Production Billion pounds PercentBeef 24.56 24.32 -1.0Pork 22.66 23.31 2.9Broilers 38.43 39.28 2.2Turkey 5.70 5.93 4.0Total meat 92.13 93.62 1.6
Prices Dollars/cwtSteers 146.09 150.75 3.2Hogs 77.92 72.75 -6.6
Cents/lbBroilers 103.4 103.8 0.4Turkey 105.7 106.5 0.8
May 9, 2014
U.S. Meat TradeMillion Pounds
World wheat World wheat
Country or Region2012/13 estimate
2013/14 forecast
Change from previous month
Change from 2012/13
Previous month Country or Region
2012/13 estimate
2013/14 forecast
Change from 2012/13
Million Tons Percent Percent 1 3 1 3 6 2 Million Tons Percent Afghanistan
World 655.6 697.9 #REF! 6.4 #REF! #REF! 655.6 #REF! 697.9 #REF! #REF! World 655.6 697.9 6.4 Albania
United States 61.8 54.4 #REF! -11.9 United States #REF! #REF! 61.8 #REF! 54.4 #REF! #REF! United States 61.8 54.4 -11.9 Algeria
Foreign 593.9 643.5 #REF! 8.4 #REF! #REF! 593.9 #REF! 643.5 #REF! #REF! Foreign 593.9 643.5 8.4 Angola
Argentina 11.0 13.0 #REF! 18.2 Argentina #REF! 11.0 #REF! #REF! 13.0 #REF! #REF! Argentina 11.0 13.0 18.2 Argentina
Canada 27.2 27.5 #REF! 1.1 Canada #REF! #REF! 27.2 #REF! 27.5 #REF! #REF! Canada 27.2 27.5 1.1 Armenia
Australia 22.1 24.5 #REF! 11.0 Australia #REF! #REF! 22.1 #REF! 24.5 #REF! #REF! Australia 22.1 24.5 11.0 Australia
European Union 132.1 138.8 #REF! 5.1 EU-27 #REF! #REF! 132.1 #REF! 138.8 #REF! #REF! European Union 132.1 138.8 5.1 Azerbaijan
Russian Federation 37.7 56.0 #REF! 48.5 Russia #REF! #REF! 37.7 #REF! 56.0 #REF! #REF! Russian Federation 37.7 56.0 48.5 Bahrain
Ukraine 15.8 22.0 #REF! 39.6 Ukraine #REF! #REF! 15.8 #REF! 22.0 #REF! #REF! Ukraine 15.8 22.0 39.6 Bangladesh
Kazakhstan 9.8 15.0 #REF! 52.4 Kazakhstan #REF! #REF! 9.8 #REF! 15.0 #REF! #REF! Kazakhstan 9.8 15.0 52.4 Barbados
China 120.6 121.0 #REF! 0.3 China #REF! 120.6 #REF! #REF! 121.0 #REF! #REF! China 120.6 121.0 0.3 Belarus
India 94.9 92.0 #REF! -3.0 India #REF! #REF! 94.9 #REF! 92.0 #REF! #REF! India 94.9 92.0 -3.0 Bhutan
Bolivia Bosnia and Herzegovina Brazil Bulgaria Burkina Burma Cameroon Canada Chad Chile China Colombia Congo (Brazzaville) Congo (Kinshasa) Costa Rica Cote d'Ivoire Croatia Cuba Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Eritrea Ethiopia EU-25 EU-27 Fiji Gabon Georgia Ghana Guatemala Guinea Guyana Haiti Honduras Hong Kong India Indonesia Iran Iraq Israel Jamaica Japan Jordan Kazakhstan Kenya Korea, North Korea, South Kuwait Kyrgyzstan Lebanon Lesotho Liberia Libya Macedonia Madagascar Malaysia Mauritania Mauritius Mexico Moldova Mongolia Morocco Mozambique Nepal New Zealand Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Norway Oman Pakistan Panama Papua New Guinea Paraguay Peru Philippines Romania Russia Saudi Arabia Senegal Serbia Serbia and Montenegro Sierra Leone Singapore Somalia South Africa Sri Lanka Sudan Switzerland Syria Taiwan Tajikistan Tanzania Thailand Togo Trinidad and Tobago Tunisia Turkey Turkmenistan Ukraine United Arab Emirates United States Uruguay Uzbekistan Venezuela Vietnam Yemen Zambia Zimbabwe
2012/13 estimate
2013/14 forecast Previous month
2014 estimate
2015 forecast
Change from 2014
Exports Percent
Beef 2,508 2,425 -3.3
Pork 4,850 5,035 3.8
Broilers 7,531 7,625 1.2
Turkey 713 750 5.1
Mature Chickens 103 125 21.2
Total meat 15,714 15,969 1.6
ImportsBeef 2,396 2,445 2.0
May 9, 2014
U.S. Milk Supply and Demand
World wheat World wheat
Country or Region2012/13 estimate
2013/14 forecast
Change from previous month
Change from 2012/13
Previous month Country or Region
2012/13 estimate
2013/14 forecast
Change from 2012/13
Million Tons Percent Percent 1 3 1 3 6 2 Million Tons Percent Afghanistan
World 655.6 697.9 #REF! 6.4 #REF! #REF! 655.6 #REF! 697.9 #REF! #REF! World 655.6 697.9 6.4 Albania
United States 61.8 54.4 #REF! -11.9 United States #REF! #REF! 61.8 #REF! 54.4 #REF! #REF! United States 61.8 54.4 -11.9 Algeria
Foreign 593.9 643.5 #REF! 8.4 #REF! #REF! 593.9 #REF! 643.5 #REF! #REF! Foreign 593.9 643.5 8.4 Angola
Argentina 11.0 13.0 #REF! 18.2 Argentina #REF! 11.0 #REF! #REF! 13.0 #REF! #REF! Argentina 11.0 13.0 18.2 Argentina
Canada 27.2 27.5 #REF! 1.1 Canada #REF! #REF! 27.2 #REF! 27.5 #REF! #REF! Canada 27.2 27.5 1.1 Armenia
Australia 22.1 24.5 #REF! 11.0 Australia #REF! #REF! 22.1 #REF! 24.5 #REF! #REF! Australia 22.1 24.5 11.0 Australia
European Union 132.1 138.8 #REF! 5.1 EU-27 #REF! #REF! 132.1 #REF! 138.8 #REF! #REF! European Union 132.1 138.8 5.1 Azerbaijan
Russian Federation 37.7 56.0 #REF! 48.5 Russia #REF! #REF! 37.7 #REF! 56.0 #REF! #REF! Russian Federation 37.7 56.0 48.5 Bahrain
Ukraine 15.8 22.0 #REF! 39.6 Ukraine #REF! #REF! 15.8 #REF! 22.0 #REF! #REF! Ukraine 15.8 22.0 39.6 Bangladesh
Kazakhstan 9.8 15.0 #REF! 52.4 Kazakhstan #REF! #REF! 9.8 #REF! 15.0 #REF! #REF! Kazakhstan 9.8 15.0 52.4 Barbados
China 120.6 121.0 #REF! 0.3 China #REF! 120.6 #REF! #REF! 121.0 #REF! #REF! China 120.6 121.0 0.3 Belarus
India 94.9 92.0 #REF! -3.0 India #REF! #REF! 94.9 #REF! 92.0 #REF! #REF! India 94.9 92.0 -3.0 Bhutan
Bolivia Bosnia and Herzegovina Brazil Bulgaria Burkina Burma Cameroon Canada Chad Chile China Colombia Congo (Brazzaville) Congo (Kinshasa) Costa Rica Cote d'Ivoire Croatia Cuba Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Eritrea Ethiopia EU-25 EU-27 Fiji Gabon Georgia Ghana Guatemala Guinea Guyana Haiti Honduras Hong Kong India Indonesia Iran Iraq Israel Jamaica Japan Jordan Kazakhstan Kenya Korea, North Korea, South Kuwait Kyrgyzstan Lebanon Lesotho Liberia Libya Macedonia Madagascar Malaysia Mauritania Mauritius Mexico Moldova Mongolia Morocco Mozambique Nepal New Zealand Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Norway Oman Pakistan Panama Papua New Guinea Paraguay Peru Philippines Romania Russia Saudi Arabia Senegal Serbia Serbia and Montenegro Sierra Leone Singapore Somalia South Africa Sri Lanka Sudan Switzerland Syria Taiwan Tajikistan Tanzania Thailand Togo Trinidad and Tobago Tunisia Turkey Turkmenistan Ukraine United Arab Emirates United States Uruguay Uzbekistan Venezuela Vietnam Yemen Zambia Zimbabwe
2012/13 estimate
2013/14 forecast Previous month
2014 estimate
2015 forecast
Change from 2014
Billion pounds PercentProduction 206.1 212.1 2.9Imports 3.4 3.4 -1.0Commercial use 195.5 200.7 2.6Exports 13.3 12.7 -4.4
Class prices Dollars/cwtClass III 20.70 17.40 -15.9Class IV 21.45 19.10 -11.0All milk 22.85 20.20 -11.6
1/ Prices are mid-point of published forecasts; milk of average fat test.
May 9, 2014
U.S. Dairy Product Prices
World wheat World wheat
Country or Region2012/13 estimate
2013/14 forecast
Change from previous month
Change from 2012/13
Previous month Country or Region
2012/13 estimate
2013/14 forecast
Change from 2012/13
Million Tons Percent Percent 1 3 1 3 6 2 Million Tons Percent Afghanistan
World 655.6 697.9 #REF! 6.4 #REF! #REF! 655.6 #REF! 697.9 #REF! #REF! World 655.6 697.9 6.4 Albania
United States 61.8 54.4 #REF! -11.9 United States #REF! #REF! 61.8 #REF! 54.4 #REF! #REF! United States 61.8 54.4 -11.9 Algeria
Foreign 593.9 643.5 #REF! 8.4 #REF! #REF! 593.9 #REF! 643.5 #REF! #REF! Foreign 593.9 643.5 8.4 Angola
Argentina 11.0 13.0 #REF! 18.2 Argentina #REF! 11.0 #REF! #REF! 13.0 #REF! #REF! Argentina 11.0 13.0 18.2 Argentina
Canada 27.2 27.5 #REF! 1.1 Canada #REF! #REF! 27.2 #REF! 27.5 #REF! #REF! Canada 27.2 27.5 1.1 Armenia
Australia 22.1 24.5 #REF! 11.0 Australia #REF! #REF! 22.1 #REF! 24.5 #REF! #REF! Australia 22.1 24.5 11.0 Australia
European Union 132.1 138.8 #REF! 5.1 EU-27 #REF! #REF! 132.1 #REF! 138.8 #REF! #REF! European Union 132.1 138.8 5.1 Azerbaijan
Russian Federation 37.7 56.0 #REF! 48.5 Russia #REF! #REF! 37.7 #REF! 56.0 #REF! #REF! Russian Federation 37.7 56.0 48.5 Bahrain
Ukraine 15.8 22.0 #REF! 39.6 Ukraine #REF! #REF! 15.8 #REF! 22.0 #REF! #REF! Ukraine 15.8 22.0 39.6 Bangladesh
Kazakhstan 9.8 15.0 #REF! 52.4 Kazakhstan #REF! #REF! 9.8 #REF! 15.0 #REF! #REF! Kazakhstan 9.8 15.0 52.4 Barbados
China 120.6 121.0 #REF! 0.3 China #REF! 120.6 #REF! #REF! 121.0 #REF! #REF! China 120.6 121.0 0.3 Belarus
India 94.9 92.0 #REF! -3.0 India #REF! #REF! 94.9 #REF! 92.0 #REF! #REF! India 94.9 92.0 -3.0 Bhutan
Bolivia Bosnia and Herzegovina Brazil Bulgaria Burkina Burma Cameroon Canada Chad Chile China Colombia Congo (Brazzaville) Congo (Kinshasa) Costa Rica Cote d'Ivoire Croatia Cuba Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Eritrea Ethiopia EU-25 EU-27 Fiji Gabon Georgia Ghana Guatemala Guinea Guyana Haiti Honduras Hong Kong India Indonesia Iran Iraq Israel Jamaica Japan Jordan Kazakhstan Kenya Korea, North Korea, South Kuwait Kyrgyzstan Lebanon Lesotho Liberia Libya Macedonia Madagascar Malaysia Mauritania Mauritius Mexico Moldova Mongolia Morocco Mozambique Nepal New Zealand Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Norway Oman Pakistan Panama Papua New Guinea Paraguay Peru Philippines Romania Russia Saudi Arabia Senegal Serbia Serbia and Montenegro Sierra Leone Singapore Somalia South Africa Sri Lanka Sudan Switzerland Syria Taiwan Tajikistan Tanzania Thailand Togo Trinidad and Tobago Tunisia Turkey Turkmenistan Ukraine United Arab Emirates United States Uruguay Uzbekistan Venezuela Vietnam Yemen Zambia Zimbabwe
2012/13 estimate
2013/14 forecast Previous month
2014 estimate
2015 forecast
Change from 2014
Product prices Dollars/pound Percent
Cheese 2.01 1.72 -14.5
Butter 1.83 1.68 -8.2
Nonfat dry milk 1.84 1.64 -10.9
Dry whey 0.64 0.57 -11.1
Class prices Dollars/cwt
Class III 20.70 17.40 -15.9
Class IV 21.45 19.10 -11.0
All milk 22.85 20.20 -11.6
May 9, 2014
U.S. Production Summary
World wheat World wheat
Country or Region2012/13 estimate
2013/14 forecast
Change from previous month
Change from 2012/13
Previous month Country or Region
2012/13 estimate
2013/14 forecast
Change from 2012/13
Million Tons Percent Percent 1 3 1 3 6 2 Million Tons Percent Afghanistan
World 655.6 697.9 #REF! 6.4 #REF! #REF! 655.6 #REF! 697.9 #REF! #REF! World 655.6 697.9 6.4 Albania
United States 61.8 54.4 #REF! -11.9 United States #REF! #REF! 61.8 #REF! 54.4 #REF! #REF! United States 61.8 54.4 -11.9 Algeria
Foreign 593.9 643.5 #REF! 8.4 #REF! #REF! 593.9 #REF! 643.5 #REF! #REF! Foreign 593.9 643.5 8.4 Angola
Argentina 11.0 13.0 #REF! 18.2 Argentina #REF! 11.0 #REF! #REF! 13.0 #REF! #REF! Argentina 11.0 13.0 18.2 Argentina
Canada 27.2 27.5 #REF! 1.1 Canada #REF! #REF! 27.2 #REF! 27.5 #REF! #REF! Canada 27.2 27.5 1.1 Armenia
Australia 22.1 24.5 #REF! 11.0 Australia #REF! #REF! 22.1 #REF! 24.5 #REF! #REF! Australia 22.1 24.5 11.0 Australia
European Union 132.1 138.8 #REF! 5.1 EU-27 #REF! #REF! 132.1 #REF! 138.8 #REF! #REF! European Union 132.1 138.8 5.1 Azerbaijan
Russian Federation 37.7 56.0 #REF! 48.5 Russia #REF! #REF! 37.7 #REF! 56.0 #REF! #REF! Russian Federation 37.7 56.0 48.5 Bahrain
Ukraine 15.8 22.0 #REF! 39.6 Ukraine #REF! #REF! 15.8 #REF! 22.0 #REF! #REF! Ukraine 15.8 22.0 39.6 Bangladesh
Kazakhstan 9.8 15.0 #REF! 52.4 Kazakhstan #REF! #REF! 9.8 #REF! 15.0 #REF! #REF! Kazakhstan 9.8 15.0 52.4 Barbados
China 120.6 121.0 #REF! 0.3 China #REF! 120.6 #REF! #REF! 121.0 #REF! #REF! China 120.6 121.0 0.3 Belarus
India 94.9 92.0 #REF! -3.0 India #REF! #REF! 94.9 #REF! 92.0 #REF! #REF! India 94.9 92.0 -3.0 Bhutan
Bolivia Bosnia and Herzegovina Brazil Bulgaria Burkina Burma Cameroon Canada Chad Chile China Colombia Congo (Brazzaville) Congo (Kinshasa) Costa Rica Cote d'Ivoire Croatia Cuba Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Eritrea Ethiopia EU-25 EU-27 Fiji Gabon Georgia Ghana Guatemala Guinea Guyana Haiti Honduras Hong Kong India Indonesia Iran Iraq Israel Jamaica Japan Jordan Kazakhstan Kenya Korea, North Korea, South Kuwait Kyrgyzstan Lebanon Lesotho Liberia Libya Macedonia Madagascar Malaysia Mauritania Mauritius Mexico Moldova Mongolia Morocco Mozambique Nepal New Zealand Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Norway Oman Pakistan Panama Papua New Guinea Paraguay Peru Philippines Romania Russia Saudi Arabia Senegal Serbia Serbia and Montenegro Sierra Leone Singapore Somalia South Africa Sri Lanka Sudan Switzerland Syria Taiwan Tajikistan Tanzania Thailand Togo Trinidad and Tobago Tunisia Turkey Turkmenistan Ukraine United Arab Emirates United States Uruguay Uzbekistan Venezuela Vietnam Yemen Zambia Zimbabwe
2012/13 estimate
2013/14 forecast Previous month
2013/14 estimate
2014/15 forecast
Change from 2013/14Percent
Crops and ProductsWheat (Million bu) 2,130 1,963 -7.8Rice (Million cwt) 189.9 213.0 12.2Corn (Million bu) 13,925 13,935 0.1Sorghum (Million bu) 389 360 -7.5Barley (Million bu) 215 196 -8.9Oats (Million bu) 66 71 7.8Soybeans (Million bu) 3,289 3,635 10.5Soybean oil (Million lbs) 19,745 19,810 0.3Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) 40,010 40,735 1.8Cotton (Million bales) 12.91 14.50 12.3Sugar (Thousand s.t., raw value) 8,480 8,495 0.2
Milk (Billion lbs) 206.1 212.1 2.9
Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 24.56 24.32 -1.0Pork 22.66 23.31 2.9Broilers 38.43 39.28 2.2Turkey 5.70 5.93 4.0Total Meat 92.13 93.62 1.6
May 9, 2014
Domestic Demand Summary
World wheat World wheat
Country or Region2012/13 estimate
2013/14 forecast
Change from previous month
Change from 2012/13
Previous month Country or Region
2012/13 estimate
2013/14 forecast
Change from 2012/13
Million Tons Percent Percent 1 3 1 3 6 2 Million Tons Percent Afghanistan
World 655.6 697.9 #REF! 6.4 #REF! #REF! 655.6 #REF! 697.9 #REF! #REF! World 655.6 697.9 6.4 Albania
United States 61.8 54.4 #REF! -11.9 United States #REF! #REF! 61.8 #REF! 54.4 #REF! #REF! United States 61.8 54.4 -11.9 Algeria
Foreign 593.9 643.5 #REF! 8.4 #REF! #REF! 593.9 #REF! 643.5 #REF! #REF! Foreign 593.9 643.5 8.4 Angola
Argentina 11.0 13.0 #REF! 18.2 Argentina #REF! 11.0 #REF! #REF! 13.0 #REF! #REF! Argentina 11.0 13.0 18.2 Argentina
Canada 27.2 27.5 #REF! 1.1 Canada #REF! #REF! 27.2 #REF! 27.5 #REF! #REF! Canada 27.2 27.5 1.1 Armenia
Australia 22.1 24.5 #REF! 11.0 Australia #REF! #REF! 22.1 #REF! 24.5 #REF! #REF! Australia 22.1 24.5 11.0 Australia
European Union 132.1 138.8 #REF! 5.1 EU-27 #REF! #REF! 132.1 #REF! 138.8 #REF! #REF! European Union 132.1 138.8 5.1 Azerbaijan
Russian Federation 37.7 56.0 #REF! 48.5 Russia #REF! #REF! 37.7 #REF! 56.0 #REF! #REF! Russian Federation 37.7 56.0 48.5 Bahrain
Ukraine 15.8 22.0 #REF! 39.6 Ukraine #REF! #REF! 15.8 #REF! 22.0 #REF! #REF! Ukraine 15.8 22.0 39.6 Bangladesh
Kazakhstan 9.8 15.0 #REF! 52.4 Kazakhstan #REF! #REF! 9.8 #REF! 15.0 #REF! #REF! Kazakhstan 9.8 15.0 52.4 Barbados
China 120.6 121.0 #REF! 0.3 China #REF! 120.6 #REF! #REF! 121.0 #REF! #REF! China 120.6 121.0 0.3 Belarus
India 94.9 92.0 #REF! -3.0 India #REF! #REF! 94.9 #REF! 92.0 #REF! #REF! India 94.9 92.0 -3.0 Bhutan
Bolivia Bosnia and Herzegovina Brazil Bulgaria Burkina Burma Cameroon Canada Chad Chile China Colombia Congo (Brazzaville) Congo (Kinshasa) Costa Rica Cote d'Ivoire Croatia Cuba Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Eritrea Ethiopia EU-25 EU-27 Fiji Gabon Georgia Ghana Guatemala Guinea Guyana Haiti Honduras Hong Kong India Indonesia Iran Iraq Israel Jamaica Japan Jordan Kazakhstan Kenya Korea, North Korea, South Kuwait Kyrgyzstan Lebanon Lesotho Liberia Libya Macedonia Madagascar Malaysia Mauritania Mauritius Mexico Moldova Mongolia Morocco Mozambique Nepal New Zealand Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Norway Oman Pakistan Panama Papua New Guinea Paraguay Peru Philippines Romania Russia Saudi Arabia Senegal Serbia Serbia and Montenegro Sierra Leone Singapore Somalia South Africa Sri Lanka Sudan Switzerland Syria Taiwan Tajikistan Tanzania Thailand Togo Trinidad and Tobago Tunisia Turkey Turkmenistan Ukraine United Arab Emirates United States Uruguay Uzbekistan Venezuela Vietnam Yemen Zambia Zimbabwe
2012/13 estimate
2013/14 forecast Previous month
2013/14 estimate
2014/15 forecast
Change from 2013/14Percent
Crops and ProductsWheat (Million bu) 1,254 1,216 -3.1Rice (Million cwt) 124.0 128.0 3.2Corn (Million bu) 11,735 11,685 -0.4Sorghum (Million bu) 205 195 -4.9Barley (Million bu) 215 214 -0.5Oats (Million bu) 165 157 -4.8Soybeans (Million bu) 1,790 1,825 2.0Soybean oil (Million lbs) 18,450 18,100 -1.9Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) 29,200 29,700 1.7Cotton (Million bales) 3.60 3.70 2.8Sugar (Thousand s.t., raw value) 12,051 11,835 -1.8
Milk (Billion lbs) 195.5 200.7 2.6
Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 24.58 24.41 -0.7Pork 18.82 19.12 1.6Broilers 30.64 31.33 2.2Turkey 5.00 5.13 2.7Total meat 79.89 80.82 1.2
May 9, 2014
U.S. Export Summary
World wheat World wheat
Country or Region2012/13 estimate
2013/14 forecast
Change from previous month
Change from 2012/13
Previous month Country or Region
2012/13 estimate
2013/14 forecast
Change from 2012/13
Million Tons Percent Percent 1 3 1 3 6 2 Million Tons Percent Afghanistan
World 655.6 697.9 #REF! 6.4 #REF! #REF! 655.6 #REF! 697.9 #REF! #REF! World 655.6 697.9 6.4 Albania
United States 61.8 54.4 #REF! -11.9 United States #REF! #REF! 61.8 #REF! 54.4 #REF! #REF! United States 61.8 54.4 -11.9 Algeria
Foreign 593.9 643.5 #REF! 8.4 #REF! #REF! 593.9 #REF! 643.5 #REF! #REF! Foreign 593.9 643.5 8.4 Angola
Argentina 11.0 13.0 #REF! 18.2 Argentina #REF! 11.0 #REF! #REF! 13.0 #REF! #REF! Argentina 11.0 13.0 18.2 Argentina
Canada 27.2 27.5 #REF! 1.1 Canada #REF! #REF! 27.2 #REF! 27.5 #REF! #REF! Canada 27.2 27.5 1.1 Armenia
Australia 22.1 24.5 #REF! 11.0 Australia #REF! #REF! 22.1 #REF! 24.5 #REF! #REF! Australia 22.1 24.5 11.0 Australia
European Union 132.1 138.8 #REF! 5.1 EU-27 #REF! #REF! 132.1 #REF! 138.8 #REF! #REF! European Union 132.1 138.8 5.1 Azerbaijan
Russian Federation 37.7 56.0 #REF! 48.5 Russia #REF! #REF! 37.7 #REF! 56.0 #REF! #REF! Russian Federation 37.7 56.0 48.5 Bahrain
Ukraine 15.8 22.0 #REF! 39.6 Ukraine #REF! #REF! 15.8 #REF! 22.0 #REF! #REF! Ukraine 15.8 22.0 39.6 Bangladesh
Kazakhstan 9.8 15.0 #REF! 52.4 Kazakhstan #REF! #REF! 9.8 #REF! 15.0 #REF! #REF! Kazakhstan 9.8 15.0 52.4 Barbados
China 120.6 121.0 #REF! 0.3 China #REF! 120.6 #REF! #REF! 121.0 #REF! #REF! China 120.6 121.0 0.3 Belarus
India 94.9 92.0 #REF! -3.0 India #REF! #REF! 94.9 #REF! 92.0 #REF! #REF! India 94.9 92.0 -3.0 Bhutan
Bolivia Bosnia and Herzegovina Brazil Bulgaria Burkina Burma Cameroon Canada Chad Chile China Colombia Congo (Brazzaville) Congo (Kinshasa) Costa Rica Cote d'Ivoire Croatia Cuba Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Eritrea Ethiopia EU-25 EU-27 Fiji Gabon Georgia Ghana Guatemala Guinea Guyana Haiti Honduras Hong Kong India Indonesia Iran Iraq Israel Jamaica Japan Jordan Kazakhstan Kenya Korea, North Korea, South Kuwait Kyrgyzstan Lebanon Lesotho Liberia Libya Macedonia Madagascar Malaysia Mauritania Mauritius Mexico Moldova Mongolia Morocco Mozambique Nepal New Zealand Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Norway Oman Pakistan Panama Papua New Guinea Paraguay Peru Philippines Romania Russia Saudi Arabia Senegal Serbia Serbia and Montenegro Sierra Leone Singapore Somalia South Africa Sri Lanka Sudan Switzerland Syria Taiwan Tajikistan Tanzania Thailand Togo Trinidad and Tobago Tunisia Turkey Turkmenistan Ukraine United Arab Emirates United States Uruguay Uzbekistan Venezuela Vietnam Yemen Zambia Zimbabwe
2012/13 estimate
2013/14 forecast Previous month
2013/14 estimate
2014/15 forecast
Change from 2013/14Percent
Crops and productsWheat (Million bu) 1,185 950 -19.8Rice (Million cwt) 95.0 102.0 7.4Corn (Million bu) 1,900 1,700 -10.5Sorghum (Million bu) 180 160 -11.1Barley (Million bu) 12 10 -16.7Soybeans (Million bu) 1,600 1,625 1.6Soybean oil (Million lbs) 1,650 1,700 3.0Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) 11,100 11,200 0.9Cotton (Million bales) 10.40 9.70 -6.7
Meat (Million lbs)Beef 2,508 2,425 -3.3Pork 4,850 5,035 3.8Broilers 7,531 7,625 1.2Turkey 713 750 5.1Mature Chickens 103 125 21.2Total meat 15,714 15,969 1.6
May 9, 2014
Price Summary2013/14 estimate
2014/15 forecast
Change from 2013/14
PercentCrops and productsWheat ($/bu) 6.85 7.30 6.6Rice ($/cwt) 16.10 15.50 -3.7Corn ($/bu) 4.65 4.20 -9.7Soybeans ($/bu) 13.10 10.75 -17.9Soybean oil (¢/lb) 40.00 39.00 -2.5Soybean meal ($/s.t.) 485.00 375.00 -22.7Cotton (¢/lb) 77.50 73.00 -5.8
LivestockSteers ($/cwt) 146.1 150.8 3.2Hogs ($/cwt) 77.9 72.8 -6.6Broilers (¢/lb) 103.4 103.8 0.4Turkeys (¢/lb) 105.7 106.5 0.8
Dairy productsCheese 2.01 1.72 -14.5Butter 1.83 1.68 -8.2Nonfat dry milk 1.84 1.64 -10.9Dry whey 0.64 0.57 -11.1
Milk classesClass III ($/cwt) 20.70 17.40 -15.9Class IV ($/cwt) 21.45 19.10 -11.0All milk ($/cwt) 22.85 20.20 -11.6