Workshop on the preparation of the fourth national communications

30 September - 1 October 2004Dublin, Ireland

Juha Turkki

Ministry of Trade and Industry

Scenarios in 3rd national communication

• National Climate Strategy submitted to Parliament 2001

• Ministerial working group to prepare the Strategy

• Scenarios: emissions in 2010,

• WM (89,9 Mt CO2-ekv),

• policy-scenario WAM (Kioto-target, 1990 level 76,8 Mt CO2-ekv)

• Policies and measures in policy scenarios• Energy Conservation Programme,• Programme for Promoting Renewable Sources of Energy,

• increased use of natural gas or new nuclear power capacity

• Impacts of policies and measures were assesed by two combinations of energy and economic models (VATT/VTT and ETLA/VTT)

Ghanges after the Climate Strategy

• TVO, a private owned Fiinish industrial power company submitted its application for a decision-in-principle to construct the fifth nuclear power plant unit

• Parliament approved the decision-in-principle on May 2002,

• Proposal for Emission Trading Directive was issued by the Commission in 2001,

•new instrument for mitigation => role of other economic instruments

• More accurate calculation rules for mechanisms and sinks,

• Proposal for directive for linking the flexible mechanisms and emission trading was issued,

• Discussion concerning the mitigation after Kyoto period

Updating the Climate Strategy

Organisation and background material

• Ministerial Working Group

• Background material from sector-specific reports and from working groups

•for example:

• WG:s for energy conservation and for use of renewables

• WG for combining ET and other (taxes, subsidies etc.) measures for mitigation

Timetable

• Updated strategy will be submitted to Parliament in the early 2005

Scenarios for Climate Strategy

• WM-scenario has been constructed for the years 2003-2020

• WAM-scenario has been constructed for the EU:s emission trading period 2005-2007

• the total allocation of allowances to ET-sector

• policies and measures in the sector outside the ET-sector

• WAM scenario for the years 2008-2012 and further to 2020 is under construction

• the total allocation of allowances to ET-sector

• domestic measures outside the ET-sector

• role of mechanisms (JI, CDM, IET)

• role of sinks

Emissions in the years 2000 to 2012, Mt CO2-ekv

Tähän kuva!

Impacts of policies and measures

• Impacts are assessed with:

• EV-model, a general equilibrium model administered by Government Institute of Economic Research (VATT)

• further developed from the ETLA-model used in 2001

• model contains a sub-model for energy

• economic impacts of policies and measures

• TIMES-model, administered by Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT)

• adjusted to describe Finnish energy system

• reactions of energy system for mitigation policies