Climate Change and Tourism

Paul Peeters(NHTV Centre for Sustainable

Tourism and Transport)(Thanks to Dan Scott, University of Waterloo, Canada, for part of the

presentation)

Technical Report

Commissioned for:

2nd International Conference on Climate Change and Tourism

(Davos, Switzerland – 1-4 Oct.)

Minister’s Summit on Climate Change and Tourism (London, England – 13 Nov.)

Commissioned by UNWTO, UNEP and WMO

Reviewed by over 20 experts on tourism and climate (UNWTO, UNEP, WMO, IATA, and others)

Authors:» Dr. Daniel Scott (Lead Author) - University of Waterloo,

Canada

» Dr. Bas Amelung - University of Maastricht,Netherlands

» Dr. Susanne Becken - Lincoln University, New Zealand

» Dr. Jean-Paul Ceron - Limoges University, France

» Ghislain Dubois - TEC Conseil, France

» Dr. Stefan Gossling - Lund University, Sweden

» Paul Peeters - Breda University, Netherlands

» Dr. Murray C. Simpson - University of Oxford, England

‘The warming of the climate system is unequivocal’ (IPCC-AR4 2007)

The pace of climate change is ‘very likely’ to increase over the 21st century

(IPCC-AR4 )2007)

Our task now is to ‘Avoid the Unmanageable, and Manage the Unavoidable’ (Schellnhuber 2006)

The Climate is Changing … and Only Just Begun

Climate Change Impacts at Tourism Destinations

Regional Knowledge Gaps

Tourism Vulnerability ‘Hotspots’

Emissions from Global Tourism: Status & Projections(NHTV CSTT contribution to report)

‘Global Tourism Emissions Model’ for 2005» UNWTO Department of Statistics and Economic

Measurement of Tourism prepared a specific database for the project

» Three sub-sectors: transport, accommodation, activities

» Includes international and domestic tourism

‘Business as Usual’ Scenario for 2035 » Arrivals and LOS trend projections: ‘Tourism

Vision 2020’, nation and industry forecasts» Energy efficiency trend projections: Boeing

(2006), EU MuSTT Study (2004)

Calculation of Emissions from the Tourism Sector

Global tourism in 2005

Total 4700 million trips of which: 4000 domestic 750 international 130 interregional

(long haul) Total of 19.7

billion guest-nights

16%

42%

42%

InternationalDomestic developed countriesDomestic other countries

Sub-Sectors CO2 (Mt)

Air transport * 522 40%

Car transport 418 32%

Other transport 39 3%

Accommodation 274 21%

Activities 52 4%

TOTAL 1,307

Total World (IPCC 2007)

26,400

Tourism Contribution 4.95%

Transportationof Tourists = 75%of Sector Emissions

* - does not include non-CO2 emissions and impact on climate

Global Tourism Emissions in 2005: CO2 Only

Share global tourism in climate change

0,00

4,00

8,00

12,00

16,00

CO2 RF Excludingcirrus

RF Includingmaximum cirrus

impact

Sh

are

of

tou

ris

m t

o e

mis

sio

ns

or

rad

iati

ve

fo

rcin

g (

%)

* Excluding same-day visitors

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2005 2035 Avoiddangerous

CC 2050

Mt

CO

2

Air Transport

Car Transport

Other Transport

Accommodation

Activities

40%

32%

21%

‘Business as Usual’ Projection of Future CO2 Emissions from Tourism*

Contraction and Conversion EU25 air transport GHG emissions

Conversion-contraction graph

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Year

Em

issi

on

s (M

ton

/yea

r)

CO2 EU economy CO2 aviation

Mitigation Policies & Measures

High Tech-Efficiency Scenario: (changes versus BAS)» reduction in aviation energy consumption per pkm of 50% (vs 32% in BAS)» additional 2%/year reduction in car emissions per pkm» additional 2%/year reduction in other transport emissions per pkm» additional 2%/year reduction in accommodation emissions per guest-night» additional 2%/year reduction in activities emissions per trip

Modal Shift-Longer Stay Scenario: (changes versus BAS)» no further growth in aviation number of trips and pkm [i]» 0.5%/year increase in average LOS vs 0.5% reduction/year in BAS» growth in rail/coach of 2.4% to 5% per year to keep total number of guest-

nights constant with BAS

[i] The number of pkm is kept constant, using average trip distance as found in BAS, thus also keeping the number of trips by air transport constant. However, it is possible to reach the same emissions reduction with some growth in the number of trips by air when the average distance is reduced (i.e. less long haul and more medium haul).

Tourism Mitigation Scenarios for 2035

* Excludes same-day tourists

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Baseline ‘Business as

Usual‘

Technical

Efficiency

Modal-

Shift/Length of

Stay

Combined

Mt

CO

2

2035*

2035 Mitigation Scenarios

-36%

-68%

-43%

2005*

Future CO2 Emissions from Global Tourism: Scenarios of Mitigation Potential in 2035

0

10

20

30

40

50

Number of Trips

(%)

Europe

Asia and Pacific

Americas

Middle East

Africa

Africa

Middle east

Americas

Asia and the Pacific

Europe

International Tourism trips

0

10

20

30

40

50

CO2 emisisons

(%)

Europe

Asia and Pacific

Americas

Middle East

Africa

Africa

Middle east

Americas

Asia and the Pacific

Europe

International Tourism CO2 emissions

The long haul travel and poverty issue

UNWTO: ‘no simplistic measures against aviation because then the poor will suffer’.

However: The great majority of long haul air transport

trips is between rich continents. The long haul trips to Africa cause minor part of

emissions Scenario: all international intra-EU trips to Africa

double international emissions en adds equivalent of 20% of Dutch economy in revenues to a continent.

Conclusions Climate change is happening now and

adaptation is already inevitable and costly Tourisms’ contribution to CC between 4-14%

and growing by 150%, where 80% reduction is required: mitigation measures inevitable

Tourism is more than aviation (17%) and international (16%).

Increasing dependence on air transport risky course

Pro-poor tourism the wrong argument against measures

Dan Scott: “Tourism must be willing to lead on climate change or it will be led”