Climate change-induced economic impacts on tourism destinations:
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Climate change-induced economic impacts on tourism destinations:the case of Australia
Journal of Sustainable TourismVol. 18, No. 3, April 2010, 449–473
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Figure 1. Case study destinations within Australian continent.
Source: http://www.australia.com
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Tourism in Australia• $68 billion to GDP• 853,000 = 8.3% Total employment [directly & indirectly] • 70% Domestic & 25% International= Regional & Rural • 2.6% Tourists arrivals increase p/a• 6.2% Outbound tourism increase p/a• 74% Domestic tourism• The 200o Sydney Olympics
Journal of Sustainable TourismVol. 18, No. 3, April 2010, 451
Source: http://www.australia.com
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Climate change + Tourism
• ¾ of its CO2 - tourism transport sector • 4.95% of Global emissions
Climate• Affect the demand of tourism• Determinates the suitability of locations• Directly affects the environmental resources for
tourism
Journal of Sustainable TourismVol. 18, No. 3, April 2010, 452
Source: http://www.australia.com
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Economic Model DevelopmentThe Garnaut ReviewCGE [Computable General Equilibrium] economicsIO [input – output] = Net effects in the economy
TERM* [The Enormous Regional Model] &The STCRC
[Sustainable Tourism Cooperative Research Center]
*Includes: industries, household sector, government, investment & overseas export.
Journal of Sustainable TourismVol. 18, No. 3, April 2010, 453
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Journal of Sustainable TourismVol. 18, No. 3, April 2010, 454
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Figure 3. Domestic Sourcing
Journal of Sustainable TourismVol. 18, No. 3, April 2010, 455
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Figure 5. Simulation procedure.
Journal of Sustainable TourismVol. 18, No. 3, April 2010, 457
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Simulation Results
Percentage change as an annual average growth figure &
Percentage point change deviation from benchmarks
Journal of Sustainable TourismVol. 18, No. 3, April 2010, 461
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Figure 7. Movements of real average wages (average annual percentage).
Journal of Sustainable TourismVol. 18, No. 3, April 2010, 462
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Figure 8. Compositional changes of national GDP components (average annual percentage).
Journal of Sustainable TourismVol. 18, No. 3, April 2010, 462
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Figure 9. GDPandGRP projections of tourism and non-tourism regions 2005–2020 (average p.a.%).
Journal of Sustainable TourismVol. 18, No. 3, April 2010, 463
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Figure 10. Comparison of climate change impacts and its induced tourism impacts on regions.
Journal of Sustainable TourismVol. 18, No. 3, April 2010, 464
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Figure 11. Net GRP impact of the induced tourism reduction for 2005–2020 (percentage point deviation).
Journal of Sustainable TourismVol. 18, No. 3, April 2010, 465
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Consequences
Tourism demand reductionsJob losses Lower wage incomes [or increasing inequality]Further costs on the society
Journal of Sustainable TourismVol. 18, No. 3, April 2010, 467
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What can help?
Domestic tourismAwareness of the government Policies to facilitate the transitionInvestment in climate change adaptation
Journal of Sustainable TourismVol. 18, No. 3, April 2010, 467