Woodfuel Resource

8/2/2019 Woodfuel Resource

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Woodfuel resource and the UK

market

Bruno Prior

Managing DirectorForever Fuels Ltd


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Scientific confidence?


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Energy policy scientistic certainty?Politicians, civil servants and their advisers know:

Future heat/electricity/transport demand & price

Contribution of each:

fuel-type (gas, oil, coal, renewables, etc) to each use

technology to the renewable share of each use

size-band within each technology to the renewable shareof each use

How these components will develop to 2020 and2050, inc. technical and economic developments


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Woodfuel resource uncertainty Supply

Demand

Price

Uses

Impacts

Alternatives

Policy

Nature


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Woodfuel supply/demand (UK)

GWh 2005 2010 2020

Electricity (output) 4,347 5,500 20,590Electricity (input) 13,584 17,188 64,344

Heating & Cooling (output) 5,385 3,547 42,008

Heating & Cooling (input) 6,335 4,172 49,421

Combined (output) 9,732 9,047 62,598

Combined (input) 19,919 21,360 113,765

Projected demand for solid biomass (UK nREAP):

Projected supply of biomass from forests (UK nREAP):

2006: 6,769 GWh 2015: 12,316 GWh 2020: 17,840 GWh


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Woodfuel supply/demand (EU)

GWh 2005 2010 2020

Electricity (output) 57,950 101,069 202,500Electricity (input) 181,094 315,841 632,813

Heating & Cooling (output) 555,682 629,171 915,083

Heating & Cooling (input) 654,920 740,210 1,076,568

Combined (output) 613,632 730,240 1,117,583

Combined (input) 836,014 1,056,051 1,709,381

Projected demand for solid biomass (EU nREAPs):

Projected supply of biomass from forests, inc. imports (EU nREAPs):

2006: 689,182 GWh 2015: 675,191 GWh 2020: 734,155 GWh


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Woodfuel supply (non-EU)Forest area (km2) Forest % of land

Russia 8,087,900 49%

Brazil 4,776,980 56%

Canada 3,101,340 34%

USA 3,030,890 33%

China 1,972,900 21%

Australia 1,636,780 21%

Sweden 275,280 67%

Germany 110,760 32%

UK 28,450 12%


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Price

Not static:

Cost of engaging marginal supply

vs

Economies of scale

(Learning curves? Cherry-picking?)


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Uses Energy uses

CHPbetter than

Heatbetter than

Electricity,but

Local heat use?

Reliable demand?

Conversion efficiencies

Types of woodfuel (e.g. bark, recovered wood)

Non-energy uses

Board, pulp, leisure, etc.


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Impacts Air quality (technology, location, scale,

background)

Land-use (direct/indirect, positive/negative)

Carbon footprint (production, transport,

conversion efficiency) Energy security


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Alternatives Biomass supply (EU nREAPs):

Other renewables

Other fuels

GWh UK EU

2006 2015 2020 2006 2015 2020

Forestry 6,769 12,316 17,840 689,182 675,191 734,155

Agriculture 1,768 19,213 68,896 180,195 313,591 435,939

Waste 25,539 78,351 111,253 94,761 131,314 180,021

Total 34,076 109,881 197,989 964,139 1,120,109 1,350,115

Projected solid biomass demand

in 2020: UK: 113,765 GWh,

EU: 1,709,381 GWh


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Policy Policy competition (targets vs inelastic supply)

Budget constraints (targets vs bankruptcy) Public perception (targets vs vote-buying)

Export promotion (Canada, Brazil)

Export prohibition (Russia) Response to changing scientific advice


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Nature Disease/parasite (mountain pine beetle, phytophthora)

Fire

Drought

Storm-blow

Reduced ice cover (shipping routes)

Changing growth rates (CO2, temperature, land fertility) Earthquake/tsunami (Japanese biomass demand?)

Population change (and changing expectations)


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Dealing with uncertainty Demand > or < Supply?

Central plans: ignorant, out-of-date, inflexible,public-choice

Internalise externality and let market allocate

Allows people close to each opportunity todetermine best option for the circumstances

Discovery through competition


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Changing planners incentives Politicians = short-term vote buyers

Civil servants = unaccountable empire builders Advisers = inexperienced and irresponsible

rent-seekers (heads I win, tails you lose)

If central planners faced real consequences


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Woodfuel resource and the UK marketBruno Prior, Managing Director, Forever Fuels Ltd

European Bioenergy Conference & Exhibition, 2011, Stoneleigh Park

225 Blackamoor LaneMaidenhead

Berks. SL6 8RT

www.forever-fuels.com

01628 509690

Woodfuel Resource

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