Woodfuel & charcoal Review-Miyuki Iiyama-ICRAF-2013

What happened to the charcoal crisis?

systematic reviews as a contribution to evidence-based policy on wood-based fuel in Africa

by Miyuki Iiyama, Gillian Petrokofsky, Peter Kanowski and Yannick Kuehl!

September 11, 2013

Charcoal(Crisis?((

Nyama(Choma(Crisis?!((Kenyan’s(favorite(barbecue)(

Outline(of(the(seminar(Se=ng(the(Scene(((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((Miyuki(Iiyama/ICRAF!!CRP6(woodfuel(review(iniJaJve((((Yannick(Kuehl/INBAR((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((Meine(van(Noordwijk/ICRAF(

(

SystemaJc(research(methods((((((((((Gillian(Petrokofsky/Univ(of(Oxford((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((Peter(Kanowski/CIFOR((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((Yannick!

!

Preliminary(findings(((((((((((((((((((((((((((Miyuki(+(((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((Ramni(Jamnadass/ICRAFTSD3(((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((Henry(Neufeldt/ICRAFTSD6(((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((Phil(Dobie/ICRAF((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((Mary(Njenga/ICRAFTEA–(Unv((Nairobi((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((Geoffrey(Ndegwa/ICRAFTEAT(Univ((Passau((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((Jeremias(Mowo/ICRAFTEA((

Discussion(points((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((Gillian((

©!Dessin!Andre!Houot.!Edi1on!Wandering!

Why(woodfuel?(•  The!discovery!of!how!to!make!fire!with!woodfuel=!humanity's(most(

important(advances.!Wood!has!been!used!as!fuel!for!millennia,!mee1ng!humanity’s!basic!needs!for!cooking,!boiling!water,!ligh1ng!and!hea1ng.!

•  For!most!of!Europe,!managed!woodlands!con1nued!to!supply!their!markets!right!up!to!the!end!of!World!War!II.!!

•  Today,!woodfuels!are!major!sources!of!energy!in!the!developing!countries!•  Yet!considered!backward,!against!“modern”!energy–!kerosene,!gas,!electricity!!

Se=ng(the(Scene(

blogs.oscLib.com!L!!

Why(woodfuel(in(SSA?(•  Dominant!importance!in!energy!balance!•  Linked!to!poverty,!health!risks!&!environmental!degrada1on!!

Se=ng(the(Scene(

WHO!(2006)!Fuels&for&Life:&Household&Energy&and&Health.!!Chidumayo!&!Gumbo!(2013)!The&environmental&impacts&of&charcoal&produc;on&in&tropical&ecosystems&of&the&world:&A&synthesis.!ESD!

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

World(12,149,845

Mtoe)

Asia(3,731,223

Mtoe)

Latin America(540,017

Mtoe)

Africa(673,500

Mtoe)

sub-SaharanAfrica - South

Africa(290,758

Mtoe)

Contribution of biofuels and wastes* to total primary energy supply (IEA)

biofuels and waste

geothermal, solar etc,

hydro

nuclear

natural gas

oil products

crude oil

coal and peat

DeforestaJon(cased(by(charcoal(producJon((black(bars)(and(other(factors((plain(bars)(in(the(countries(with(the(highest(rates(of(deforestaJon(

GDP(per(capita(

%(of(p

rimary(bioe

nergy(in(total(

energy(por_olio(

•(SubTSaharan(Africa(•(Asia(•(LaJn(America((•(North(Africa(

•(woodfuels(•(hydro(•(nuclear(•(natural(gas(•(oil(products(•(crude(oil(•(coal(&(peat(

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Why(charcoal(in(SSA?(•  ShiZ!from!firewood!to!charcoal!with!income!growth!&!urbaniza1on!!!!!!!!!!!!!–health!benefits!

Se=ng(the(Scene(

Bailis!et!al.!(2005)!Mortality&and&Greenhouse&Gas&Impacts&of&Biomass&and&Petroleum&Energy&Futures&in&Africa.!Science!

BAU(—(C(charcoal)(―(RC(rapid(charcoal)((TTTT(F((fossil)(―(;(RF((rapid(F)(TTT((

No.(of(p

aJen

ts(&(death(

from

(respiratory(diseases(

SSA(populaJon(((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((BAU((((((((((((((

C(charcoal)((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((RC(rapid(C)(

F((fossil)(((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((RF(rapid(F)((

urban(

rural(

firewood(

charcoal(

kerosene(

gas(

Millions(of(p

eople((

firewood(

charcoal(

gas(

kerosene(

firewood(

Why(charcoal(in(SSA?(•  ShiZ!from!firewood!to!charcoal!with!income!growth!&!urbaniza1on!!!!!!!!!–health!benefits!L!but!poten1ally!significant!land!use!impact!!!!!!!!L!a!major!driver!of!forest!degrada1on,!while!oZen!byLproducts!of!deforesta1on!!

Se=ng(the(Scene(

Firewood(for(domesJc(use(mostly(depend(on(dead(wood(or(branches(on/off(farm((

Charcoal(involves(selecJve(felling(of(live(indigenous(hardTwood(species(

Bofa,!Ethiopia!Kerio!Valley,!Kenya!

Sondu!Miriu,!Kenya! Kasigau,!Kenya!

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Why(charcoal(in(SSA?(•  Significant!economic!importance!!!!!!!!L!US$8b!revenue!+7m!employment!in!2007;!es1mated!US$12b+12m!by!2030!•  complex!and!mul1Llayered!“command!and!control”Ltype!regulatory!contexts,!

which!result!in!an!unclear!framework!for!stakeholders!opera1ng!in!the!sector!!

Se=ng(the(Scene(

Figure 17: Marketing channels for charcoal in Kenya

Production Site (wood and Charcoal)

Middlemen

Households

Road Side

Wholesalers

Retailers

KFS

Police

Local Authorities

www.businessdailyafrica.com!!

erinmurraytravels.blogspot.com!

KFS!(2013)!

www.businessdailyafrica.com!!

0T3%(

~16%( 20~22%(

~3%(

~20%(

~2%(20T30%(

Nairobi,!Kenya!

Yaia,!Kenya!

Mutomo,!Kenya! Kerio,!Kenya!

G!Ndegwa!

Somalia(Export(to(Gulf( www.trust.org!!

Paradox(for(CRP6(Firewood/charcoal(as(major(use(of(trees(on(farm/landscape;(!

Low(incenJves/moJvaJon(of(farmers(to(plant(woodfuels;((•  Singular!focused!projects!on!promo1ng!woodfuel!planta1on!found!nonL

effec1ve!(Dewees!1989)!!

Charcoal(as(a(major(driver(of(degradaJon(in(African(drylands((!

Most(important(uJlity(derived(from(tree(species(on(farm(

charcoal(

firewood(

Se=ng(the(Scene(

Preliminary!Results!from!Ethiopian!Baseline!Data:!!ACIAR!funded!“Trees!for!Food!Security!Project”!!

SubThumid(zone(

SemiTarid(zone(

AssumpJons,(quesJons(&(aims(AssumpJons:(the(poliJcal(will(for(sustainable(charcoal(has(been(lacking(and(the(past(wellTintended(projects(on(supply/demand(management(failed,(due(to(

(1)  the!widely!predicted!woodfuel!crisis!for!Africa,!with!rising!prices!for!urban!consumers,!has!not!taken!place!at!the!scale!predicted;!!

(2)  Past!projects!may!have!underes1mated!the!complexity!of!supplyLdemand!interac1ons!involved;!!

(3)  there!is!lack!of!reliable!data!to!assess!the!sustainability!of!demandLsupply((

QuesJons:(

1.  What!happened!to!charcoal!crisis?!!!2.  SupplyLdemand!interac1ons?!!3.  Is!the!quality!data!available?!((

Aims:((

With!the!lessons!learned!from!conflic;ng&evidences&and&unbiased&knowledge,!can!we!develop!a&systema;c&approach&to!promote!sustainable!charcoal,!and!influence!the!key!stakeholders!to!mainstream!it!into!the!na1onal,!regional,!global!policies???!!!!

Se=ng(the(Scene(

CRP6(Woodfuel(Review(

Background:(two!separate!research!proposals!within!CRP6!revealed!the!need!to!streamline!and!combine!research!efforts:!both!proposals!were!based!on!similar!assump1ons!and!approaches!!!these!underlying!assump1ons!and!approaches!have!not!changed!for!a!long!1me!!!fact!finding!mission!to!determine!state!of!the!art!knowledge!and!to!iden1fy!relevant!research!ques1ons!

ObjecJve(of(review(process:(to!develop!white/posi1ons!paper!on!wood!energy!which!defines!new!and!relevant!research!ques1ons!for!the!development!of!future!substan1al!research!projects!on!wood!energy!

Structure:((

(Phase!I:!(systema1c)!review!of!iden1fied!topic!(carried!out!in!three!!teams!focusing!on:!demand,!supply!and!policy)!!(onTgoing(

!Phase!II:!synthesis!of!reviews!in!white/posi1on!paper!to!define!state!of!!the!art!approaches!and!methods!of!wood!energy,!as!well!as!relevant!!research!ques1ons!!Phase!III:!development!of!longLterm!research!project!(based!on!! !findings!from!phase!I!and!II)!

!!

CRP6(IniJaJve(


Team:(25+!researchers!from!ICRAF!and!CIFOR!and!external!partners!(INBAR,!SLU,!UAB,!James!Huion!Ins1tute)!MeeJngs:(first!workshop!in!Bonn!(June!2012),!a!followLup!in!Doha!(December!2012)!and!workshop!in!Bogor!(7L8!March!2013)!!!phase!I!review!approach,!teams!and!focus!ques1ons!defined!+!framework!developed!Research(on(wood(energy:(crossLcutng!topic!!!links!to:!!•  energy!markets!,!efficiency!in!produc1on!and!consump1on!•  energy!ladder,!compe11on!with!other!biomass!uses,!alterna1ves!(e.g.!bamboo)!•  rural!and!urban!livelihoods,!food!security,!emissions!and!indoor!air!pollu1on!•  employment!and!business!aspects,!value!chains!•  climate!change!•  landscapes!and!ecosystems,!sustainability!•  interna1onal!(crossLborder)!trade!and!local!(informal)!economies!!•  wide!range!of!policy!issues!!(Wood(Energy(Review(Research(framework((developed(by(Meine(van(Noordwijk)(

CRP6(IniJaJve(

DomesJc(energy(use(by(urban(+(rural(households(

Value!chain!

Supply(of(wood(energy(from(forest(+(rural(+(periTurban(landscapes(

OneLoff!harvest!of!

natural!forest!

Planta1ons,!agroforestry!

Sustainably!used!natural!

forest!

FossilLfuel!based!

alterna1ves!

Clean!energy!alterna1ves!

Supply(side!policies!of!resource!access!

Transport!&!value!chain!policies!

Demand!shi:!policies!

XLcon1nental!!!!!!!!!!!trade!

XLborder!trade!

Charcoal!kilns!Transport!

Energy(crisis:!!running!out!of!

supply!

Driver(of(deforestaJon!

Health(issues(~(wood(energy(!

CompeJng(claims(on(land(

Net(GHG(emissions((accounJng(systems)(

Businesses(along(value(chain!

A(

B(

C(C(

Other!bioLenergy!alterna1ves!


Framework:!three!core!issues:!demand,!supply!and!policy!!!research!team!was!grouped!accordingly!!!clear!dis1nc1on!between!these!aspects!is!difficult!and!overlaps!exist!!!overlaps,!however,!ensure!an!inclusive!process!which!considers!as!many!aspects!as!possible!!!

Approach:(each!of!the!3!teams:!up!to!5!specific!review!ques1ons!!!one!or!2!researchers!responsible!for!each!specific!ques1on!!

Overarching(research(quesJon:(is!there!a!wood!energy!crisis?!!!addressed!by!synthesizing!and!analyzing!the!findings!of!the!reviews!of!the!three!research!teams!on!demand,!supply!and!policy!

Methodology:(Where!applicable!and!possible:!systema1c!reviews!!!replicable,!transparent!and!evidence!based!results!with!minimized!biased!interpreta1ons!!!if!systema1c!reviews!are!not!applicable!(due!to!high!demand!for!1me!and!costs):!individual!evidenceLbased!approaches!which!borrow!from!or!are!based!on!aspects!of!systema1c!reviews!!!!

!

CRP6(IniJaJve(

Systema1c!review:!a!powerful!tool!for!integra1ng!science!with!policy!

Gillian!Petrokofsky!University!of!Oxford!

!Senior!Associate,!CIFOR!

!

11/09/2013! ICRAF!Science!Week! 15!

Methodology(

Outline(

•  Overview!of!the!evidenceLbased!forestry!programme!in!CIFOR!+!Partners!

•  Outline!of!systema1c!reviews!within!the!context!of!evidenceLbased!forestry!

•  Where!these!ideas!on!evidenceLbased!paradigms!and!systema1c!reviews!came!from!(medicine,!social!policy,!conserva1on,!etc.)!

•  Brief!outline!of!the!process!of!doing!a!systema1c!review!itself,!the!1me!it!takes!and!the!types!of!teams!one!assembles!for!that!

•  Reflec1ons!on!how!the!EBF!ini1a1ve!is!going!–!lessons!learned!so!far,!etc.!

•  Reflec1ons!on!how!one!might!approach!a!policy/prac1ce!decision!without!going!through!a!systema1c!review!–openLdiscussion!topic!


Methodology(


About(me(Methodology(

Vision

CIFOR vision: "  Forests on the agenda - Value of forests recognized "  Decisions that influence forests and people supported by

solid science and principles of good governance "  Contributing to evidence-based policies for sustainable

landscapes and green growth

About(CIFOR(Methodology(

The(knowledgeTuse(challenge(

11/09/2013! ICRAF!Science!Week!

#! #!

19!

Methodology(

The(EBF(collaboraJon(CIFOR,(IUFRO,(CATIE,(CIRAD,(ICRAF,(University(of(Oxford(

•  agreed!to!ini1ate!the!EBF!collabora1on!

•  CIFOR!leads!ini1al!phase,!including!capacity!building!

Progress(

•  Scoping,!training,!recruitment!•  First!systemaJc(reviews(

underway!•  Ac1ve!process!to!determine!

policy(and(review(prioriJes(

•  www.cifor.org/ebf(

1987!!Swedish!Council!on!Technology!Assessment!in!Health! medicine!1988!!Centre!for!the!Study!of!Learning!performance!(Canada)! educa1on!

1993((Cochrane(CollaboraJon( medicine!

1993!!EPPI!Centre!(UK)! social!policy!

1994!!Centre!for!Review!&!Dissemina1on!(UK)! medicine!

1995!!Joanna!Briggs!Ins1tute!(Australia)! medicine!

1995!!Blueprints!for!Violence!Preven1on!(USA)! crime!&!jus1ce!1999!!Center!for!Evalua1on!Research!&!Methodology!(USA)! crime!&!jus1ce!

2000((Campbell(CollaboraJon( Social!policies!

2003!!Centre!for!EvidenceLbased!Conserva1on! environment!

2007((CollaboraJon(for(Environemntal(Evidence( environment!

2009!!3iE!interna1onal!development!

2013((EBF(T(CIFOR(&(Partners( forestry!

The(collaboraJon(draws(from(examples(in(other(sectors(

Systema1c!reviews:!“gold(standard”!!in!these!collabora1ons!11/09/2013! ICRAF!Science!Week! 20!

Methodology(

Science(does(not(provide(the(soluJons(

…but without good science, good solutions unlikely to be found…

Best(science(

Society’s((needs(&(

preferences(

Expert((opinion(

EBF(

Beware(of((experts’(bias!(


Methodology(

Total(body(of(research(

((

Research((used.(!

Evidence(Based((Forestry(

!

Current((‘haphazard’(situaJon(

Total(body(of(research(

Research(used(

No(clear(methods(for(accessing(or(analysing(research(used(for(decisionTmaking(.(Results(not(acJvely(disseminated.(

Repeatable(methods(for(accessing(and(analysing(research(used(for(decisionTmaking.((Results(disseminated(acJvely.((

(CollaboraJon/ParJcipaJon(

in:((

#  SystemaJc(reviews(#  Defining(priority(quesJons(

(

((

Policy(focus(and(evidence:(science(relevance(

!!


From!Petrokofsky!!2011!

Methodology(

1. Question framing •  Policy-relevance •  Involves

stakeholders •  Define what is to

be examined and how

2. Rigorous review methodology •  Transparent •  Repeatable

3. Engage wider community with findings: •  policy makers •  academics •  stakeholders

3.!!AcJve!

dissemina1on!of!results!

2.!SystemaJc!evalua1on!of!evidence!

Framework(for(incorporaJng(evidence(

11/09/2013! 23!

1.!!PolicyTrelevant!ques1on! Commitment(to(

update(

From!Petrokofsky!et!al.,!2010!

ICRAF!Science!Week!

Methodology(

Steps(of(a(systemaJc(review!

24!

1(!Formulate!the!problem!and!register!

1tle!

2(((Write!the!protocol,!submit!for!peerLreview,!

publish!

3!!!Locate!and!select!studies!

4!!Appraise!studies!for!!risk!of!bias!

5!!!Collect!and!extract!data!

6!!!Analyse!data!and!present!the!

results!

7!!!Interpret!the!results!

8!!!Complete!the!review,!submit!

for!peerLreview!&!publish!

9!!!Update!the!review!

11/09/2013! ICRAF!Science!Week!

Methodology(

Typical(systemaJc(review(group(

•  6L8!(4!minimum)!•  Lead!reviewer!(one!throughout,!or!consider!leads!at!different!stages)!

•  Con1nuous!admin!support!•  Library/informa1on!resource!specialist!•  Sta1s1cian!(if!metaLanalysis/sta1s1cal!analysis!is!planned)!

•  Subject!exper1se!(consider!language!implica1ons)!


Methodology(

First(tranche(of(systemaJc(reviews(Topic( Review(team(

Impacts(of(biofuel(crops(on(biodiversity( CIFOR(ETH(Zurich(CIRAD(

Concepts(of(science(quality(&(research(evaluaJon(

Royal(Roads(University(Canada(

Role(of(land(use(change(dynamics(in(miombo(woodlands(

Copperbelt(University(Zambia(Univ(Pretoria(CIFOR!(

Biodiversity(benefits(of(“alternaJve(livelihoods”((

CIFOR(IIED(Zoological(Society(of(London(

Property(rights(and(the(environment( CIFOR(Univ(Michigan(Univ(Oxford(

Ecosystems(sustaining(agriculture( CIFOR(Univ(Wageningen(Univ(Southampton(


Methodology(

Time(constraints(T(opJons(

•  6L9!months!(depending!on!literature)!•  Consider!evidence!mapping!

– Robust!– ProtocolLdriven!– No!data!extrac1on!&!synthesis!


Methodology(

Some!indica1ve!publishing!data!with!a!story?!

•  All!literature!on!‘energy’! •  Percentage!of!this!literature!rela1ng!to!Africa!

More!EBF!at!ICRAF!Science!Week!

All(welcome!(

!!

Thank(you(for(listening(


Methodology(

Preliminary(Findings((

The(development(of(explicit(review(quesJons(–(sJll(being(refined(

!1.  Charcoal!CrisisL!!Higher!charcoal!demand!translated!into!higher!

charcoal!prices?!

2.  Complexity!of!interac1ons!L!Supply!is!stable/!responsive/!sustainable!to!higher!charcoal!demand?!!

3.  Is!data!available!to!assess!the!sustainability!of!the!sector?!!

A(preliminary(evaluaJon(of(the(exisJng(evidence(base(that(could(provide(scienJfic(underpinning(for(these(quesJons(

Preliminary(Findings(

Past(projects’(nonTsystemaJc(approach(Dewees’!“counterLargument”!against!woodfuel!crisis!debates!taken!forward,!in!turn,!!very!few!projects/studies!had!systema1c!approaches,!resul1ng!in!lack!of!impacts!!

Supply(Management(Projects(ex.!reforesta1on!focusing!only!on!woodfuel!provision,!!Improved!kilns,!!charcoal!ban,!regula1ons!

Demand(Management(Projects(ex.!promo1ng!improved!cook!stoves,!!modern!energy!

Ethiopia@Project!Gaia!

G!Ndegwa!

priority(species(by(men((

perceived(low(opportunity(costs,(

negaJve(tree(tenure(for(women(

Lack(of(E(Scarcity(

percepJons(on(coTbenefits((

unicefinnova1on.org!

Kenya(case(–(2004(vs.(2013((Preliminary(Findings(

•  Popula1on!growth!and!urbaniza1on!rate!between!2004L2013:!2.7%;!4.1%!!•  Charcoal!traded!increased!from!1.6m!t!in!2004!to!2.5m!t!in!2013:!5%/year!!!!!!!!!!2004→2013:!42kg(→(57kg/total!pop!capita/yr;!225kg(→(245kg/urban!pop!capita/yr!!!•  Trade!values!increased!L32!bil!ksh!in!2004!to!135!bil!ksh!in!2013:!17.3%/year!!•  Es1mated!charcoal!price!increase!=!17.3%L5%=12.3%/year!•  Consumer!infla1on!on!average!8.8%/year!•  Kerosene!prices!highly!fluctuatedL!+17%!in!2008!then!L14%!down!in!2009!•  LPG!prices!steadily!increased!between!2006!and!2009:!6.3%/year!

•  Charcoal(prices(may(be(influenced(by(so(many(shortTlongTterm(factors…!

Kenyan(case(T(How(stable(supply?(Preliminary(Findings(

Acacia(niloJca Acacia(torJlis

Photo!by!G!Ndegwa Photo!by!G!Ndegwa

Photo!by!G!Ndegwa

Photo!by!G!Ndegwa

www.fredhoogervorst.com!

Acacia(mearnsii(

Tarchonanthus((camphoratus

www.plantzafrica.com

www.florabank.org.au

Seemingly!once!preferred!tree!species!get!exhausted!from!one!area,!supply!hot!spots!shiZing!possibly!farther!away!from!urban!areas!at!the!expense!of!sustainability!

Prosopis(juliflora

www.jircas.affrc.go.jp!!

Kenyan(case(–((How(flexible(prices(and(supply?(

Pangani(from(Kajiado(

South(B(from(Kitui(

Kiambu(from(Tana(River(

DagoreJ,(Kwangare,(Satellite(from(Baringo(


@1300/bag(

@1500/bag(

Urban!markets!are!highly!segmented!due!to!cartels!!

Data(constrains(Preliminary(Findings(

to(esJmate(the(impacts(of(charcoal(demand(on(sustainability(of(supply,(most(case(studies/reviews(either(based(on(FAO(esJmates((or(naJonal(surveys,(which(have(significant(inconsistencies(

More(recent(reviews((•  Arnold((2006)(–!FAO!!•  Zulu&(Richardson((2013)(–!socioLeconomic!study!reviews!•  Mwampamba((2013)(–!synthesis!of!charcoal!studies,!esp.!policies!!•  Chidumayo(&(Gumbo((2013)(–!FAO!&!FAO!FORESTAT!2005!

Country(reports((•  TZNL!HH!budget!survey,!econ!modeling!•  RwandaLVC!analysis,!spa1al!modeling!•  MalawiL!survey!on!4!largest!ci1es!!•  Kenya!–!survey!on!countries!purposely!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!selected!

Reports(by(InternaJonal(OrganizaJons(•  World(Bank((2011)(–!IEA,!extrapola1on!for!SSA!based!on!KEN/TZN/MAL!surveys!•  GEF((2013)!–!FAO,!though!no1ng!that!actual!demand!could!be!4!1mes!larger!

Case(studies(–(peerTreviewed(papers(•  TZN/Mwampamba!L!244!HHs!survey!•  Malawi/Zulu!–!na1onal!surveys&!policies!•  MiomboTZambia/Kutsch!–!data!on!3!plots!•  SSA/OpenshawL!FAO!!!

(

Domain'1:!Deforestation'&'!charcoal'increase'along'with'urbanization!'!

!!

Domain'2:!Deforestation'&'!charcoal'decrease'along'with'urbanization!'!

!!

Domain'3:!Reforestation'&'!

charcoal'increase'along'with'urbanization!

'!

!!

Domain'4:!Reforestation'&'!

charcoal'decrease'along'with'urbanization!

'!

!!Forest(area(change(2005T2010((%/year)(FAO(Charcoal(dem

and(elasJcity(to(urba

nizaJon

(2005T2010(%

/%)(FAO(

DataT(Inconsistencies(with(naJonal(surveys(•  FAOSTAT!wood!charcoal!vs.!es1mates!by!na1onal!surveys!


Country( Source/year(of(survey/methods(Annual(charcoal(producJon((

FAOSTAT([%(to(naJonal(figure]((

Kenya(ESDA(2005)/2004!Es1mates!based!on!survey!on!selected!coun1es!!

1.6!million!tons!!!

17,700!tons![1.1%]!

Kenya(KFS!(2013)/2013!Es1mates!based!on!survey!on!selected!coun1es!!

2.5!million!tons!!!

17,700!tons!(2011)![0.7%]!

Tanzania(World!Bank!(2009)/2007!household!budget!survey!&!modeling!

1!million!tons!!!!

1,041,000!tons!![104%]!

Rwanda(GTZ!(2009)/2008;!FAO!WISDOM!(2011)!!!Value!chain!survey,!spa1al!modeling!

150,000!tons!!!!

48,000!tons![32%]!

Malawi(Kambewa!et!al.!(2007)!*!/2007!!urban!energy!survey!on!4!major!ci1es!Openshaw(2010)!**!/review!of!various!surveys!!

256,863*!L297,151!**!tons!!!!!!

456,600!tons![154%L178%]!

!!

Kenya 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Wood Charcoal (tonnes) 640,501 16,500 17,000 16,700 17,700 17,700 17,700 17,700 17,700 17,700 17,700 17,700

•  LowLkiln!efficiency!scenarios!translate!into!the!annual!deforesta1on!of!96kL357kL625k!ha/year,!3!!L!10!!L18%!of!346k!ha!Kenya’s!forest!area,!even!larger!than!reported!deforesta1on!of!11k!ha/year!!!

Data(T(Methodological(challenges(•  Some!es1mates!on!required!biomass!supply!to!meet!demand!(Mwampamba!

2007!with!244!HHs!data!in!TZN;!Chidumayo!&!Gumbo!2013!with!FAO!data)!assumed!all!charcoal!coming!from!forests,!and!applied!the!formula!

!!


!"#!$%&#'!!(&#(!)##*#*!!%!+##!!,%%*!*#+()*!$%&!-"(&-%(.!("() = !"#!2%.3+#!%$!,%%*!*#+()*!$%&!-"(&-%(.!(!)!/$%&#'!!'!%-5!*#)'6!7!(86%+(''!'!%-56)9!&(!#)!(!/"( ) 

www.treeaid.org.uk! G!Ndegwa,!Tsavo!East! Nkemte,!Ethiopia!

•  ex.!How(much(forest(area(needed(to(meet(the(demand(of(charcoal(consumed(in(Kenya(T(2.5m(t/year(or(6850(t/day((0.16kg[total]L0.67kg[urban]/capita/day)?!!

!!!!!10%(kiln:(68500t/40(t/ha)=1712ha(((((10%(kiln(–(68500t/70(t/ha)=978ha((((10%(kiln(T68500t/260(t/ha)=263ha(((((((((30%(kilnT((22605t/40(t/ha)(=565ha((((((30%(kiln(–(22605t/70(t/ha)=323ha((((30%(kiln(–(22605/260(t/ha)=87ha((((((((((((

(((((((((((((((((

biomass(stock(=(40(t/ha( biomass(stock(=(70(t/ha( biomass(stock(=(260(t/ha(

•  This!method!is!prone!to!possible!errors!as!some!charcoal!demand!met!from!trees!on!farm!outside!forests!(degrada1on)!or!as!byLproduct!of!deforesta1on!due!to!agricultural!land!clearance.!!

Data(T(Methodological(challenges(Preliminary(Findings(

•  FAO’s!Woodfuel!Integrated!Supply/Demand!Overview!Mapping!(WISDOM)!database!allowed!for!the!crea1on!of!maps(of(woody(biomass(stocking(and(potenJal(sustainable(producJvity(with!high!spa1al!resolu1on.!Similarly,!the!integra1on!of!popula1on!distribu1on!maps!with!fuelwood!and!charcoal!consump1on!values!by!sector!and!by!rural!seilements!and!urban!areas!resul1ng!from!the!review!of!a!wide!variety!of!sources,!allowed!the!crea1on!of!woodfuel(consumpJon(maps(at!the!spa1al!resolu1on!of!less!than!1!km.!!

!"#!(&#(!)##*#*!!%!+##!!,%%*!*#+()*!$%&!-"(&-%(.!("() = !"#!2%.3+#!%$!,%%*!*#+()*!$%&!-"(&-%(.!(!)!/86%+(''!'!%-56)9!&(!#!(!/"( ) 

•  How!much!accurate???!!

!

FAO!WISDOM!RWANDA!(2011)!

FRA(2005( FRA(2010(

Forest(Area((ha)(

Inconsistent!with!FAOSTAT!and!FRA!2010!for!some!countries!

Consistent!with!FAOSTAT!

Growing(stock((m3/ha)(

Report!on!2005!value,!and!changing!rates!for!1990L2005!to!allow!es1mates!on!1990!and!2000!values!

Report!on!2010!value!only.!Calcula1on!change!between!2005!(FRA!2005!value)!and!2010!(FRA!2010!value)!!indicates!serious!discrepancies!between!two!FRAs.!!

Biomass(stock((t/ha)(

Report!on!2005!value! Did!not!report!at!all,!need!to!!derive!from!carbon!stock!values!

Carbon(stock((t/ha)(

Reported!only!on!2005!value! Reported!for!1990,!2000,!2005!and!2010!values.!2005!value!differed!from!FRA!2005!and!FRA!2010.!!

Changes!of!growing!stock!(m3,!%/year)!between!2005!(FRA2005)!and!2010!(FRA2010)!seemingly!has!some!serious!discrepancies.!Especially!for!some!countries,!against!the!decreasing!trends!of!forest!area!(ha)!and!carbon!stock!(t)!at!L0.5%!~!L1%/year,!!the!growing!stock!rate!increased!radically,!for!example!23%/year!(Indonesia)!~73%/year!(Cameroon),!…!!

!20.00

!15.00

!10.00

!5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

!10.00 !5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00

growing'stock'(m3)'change'199062000'(%/year)'FRA'2005

growing-stock-(m3)change-1990!2000(%/year)-FRA-2005

!15.00!10.00!5.000.005.00

10.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.00

!10.00 !5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00


growing.stock.(m3)change.2000!2005(%/year).FRA.2005

Botswana

Cameroon

E-GuineaIndonesia Kenya

Mozambique

920.00910.000.00

10.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.0080.00

910.00 95.00 0.00 5.00 10.00


growing-stock-(m3)change-200592010(%/year)-FRA-200592010

!20.00

!15.00

!10.00

!5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

!10.00 !5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00

carbon'stock'(t)'change'199032000'(%/year)'FRA'2010

carbon-stock-(t)-change1990!2000-(%/year)-FRA2010

!20.00

!15.00

!10.00

!5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

!10.00 !5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00



!20.00

!15.00

!10.00

!5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

!10.00 !5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00



Data(–(Inconsistencies(in(reporJng(FAO(Forest(Resource(Assessment(2005/2010(not(consistent!


Botswana

Cameroon

E-GuineaIndonesia Kenya

Mozambique

920.00910.000.00

10.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.0080.00

910.00 95.00 0.00 5.00 10.00


growing-stock-(m3)change-200592010(%/year)-FRA-200592010

Forest(area(change(2005T2010((%/year)(FAO(Growing(stock((m

3/ha

)cha

nge(2005T2010/%)(

FAO(

TentaJve(conclusion(•  Do!not!ignore!charcoal!issues!for!sustainable!development!in!SSA.!

Seeming!lack!of!crises!(physical!scarcity)!due!to!slow/inelas1c!price!responses!does!not!mean!there!is!no!sustainability!issues.!In!fact,!there!can!be!serious!dryland!forest!degrada1on!ongoing.!!!!

!•  Need!a!systema1c!framework!to!examine!the!evidence!

$ !!!!supply(management:!considera1on!of!physical!as!well!as!economic!scarci1es!$ !!!!demand(management:!understanding!percep1ons!on!coLbenefits!of!energy!choice,!!beyond!financial/health!benefits!and!costs!of!energy!alterna1ves!!$ !!!!harmonizaJon(of(policies:!providing!clear!frameworks!for!stakeholders,!removing!distor1ons!so!as!to!increase!more!incen1ves!to!producers!!!

!!•  Need!to!acknowledge!the!data!limita1ons!and!methodologies,!try!to!

iden1fy!op1mal!strategies!to!present!supplyLdemand!projec1ons!to!s1mulate!policy!debates!and!ac1ons!for!mainstreaming!sustainable!charcoal!


Thank(You!(((

Woodfuel & charcoal Review-Miyuki Iiyama-ICRAF-2013

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